The Commentariat -- January 6, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Allan Smith of NBC News: "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., announced the House will vote soon on a war powers resolution to limit ... Donald Trump's military actions after he ordered the killing of a top Iranian general last week, escalating tensions with Tehran. 'Last week, the Trump administration conducted a provocative and disproportionate military airstrike targeting high-level Iranian military officials,' Pelosi said in a letter to colleagues Sunday. 'This action endangered our servicemembers, diplomats and others by risking a serious escalation of tensions with Iran. As members of Congress, our first responsibility is to keep the American people safe,' she continued. 'For this reason, we are concerned that the administration took this action without the consultation of Congress and without respect for Congress's war powers granted to it by the Constitution.' She said the House resolution is similar to one introduced in the Senate by Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va."

New York Times live updates: "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wept and offered prayers over the coffin of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani at the funeral in Tehran on Monday, as throngs of people filled the city's streets to mourn.... Ayatollah Khamenei had a close relationship with the general, who was widely considered to be the second most powerful man in Iran. The military commander was hailed as a martyr, and his successor swore revenge during the funeral ceremony, while chants of 'Death to America' rang out from the crowds in the capital." An AP story is here. ~~~

~~~ Peter Baker of the New York Times: "For three years, President Trump's critics have expressed concern over how he would handle a genuine international crisis, warning that a commander in chief known for impulsive action might overreach with dangerous consequences. In the angry and frenzied aftermath of the American drone strike that killed Iran's top general, with vows of revenge hanging in the air, Mr. Trump confronts a decisive moment that will test whether those critics were right or whether they misjudged him. 'The moment we all feared is likely upon us,' Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut and vocal critic of Mr. Trump, wrote on Twitter over the weekend. 'An unstable President in way over his head, panicking, with all his experienced advisers having quit, and only the sycophantic amateurs remaining. Assassinating foreign leaders, announcing plans to bomb civilians. A nightmare.'... [Trump] faces enormous skepticism from the critics who have long warned that he was too erratic to face moments of crisis.... [But] And some experts on the [Mideast] region suggested that Mr. Trump's very unpredictability was a deterrent in itself...." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: What Baker doesn't acknowledge is that this is a crisis of Trump's own making: first, by cancelling the nuclear deal with Iran, then by imposing crippling sanctions on Iran, then by overreacting to the murder of a U.S. contractor by making multiple strikes on militia sites, then by overreacting to protesters' attacks on the U.S. embassy in Tehran by assassinating Suleimani. So we already know how Trump "responds" to a crisis: (1) he creates it, and (2) he makes it worse & worse.

~~~ Lara Jakes of the New York Times: "More than 2,300 years ago, the Persian capital of Persepolis was burned by a foreign warrior in a fatal blow to the empire and its rich heritage. The ruins of the ancient city, in modern-day southwest Iran, could now be on President Trump's target list of 52 sites he has threatened to attack as tensions escalated between Washington and Tehran.... But the targeting of cultural sites is against international law, and critics denounced Mr. Trump for his statement.... The United States is a signatory to a 1954 international agreement to protect cultural property in armed conflict. Violating it with attacks on Iran's historical sites would represent a huge turnabout. The United States was among the harshest critics of the Islamic State's destruction of antiquities in Mosul, Iraq, and Palmyra, Syria, as well as the Taliban's obliteration of the Bamiyan Buddhas in Afghanistan in 2001.... By Sunday, under the hashtag #IranianCulturalSites, a Twitter campaign cropped up in the form of history buffs taking verbal aim at Mr. Trump's threat." See also unwashed's comment below. ~~~

~~~ Rick Noack of the Washington Post: "By suggesting strikes on '52 Iranian sites,' including some that are important to 'the Iranian culture,' Trump threatened a way of waging war that has drawn growing outrage in recent decades, critics argued Monday.... 'Targeting civilians and cultural sites is what terrorists do. It's a war crime,' tweeted Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In Britain, a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned that 'there are international conventions in place which prevent the destruction of cultural heritage.'... In March 2017 -- only weeks after Trump's inauguration -- the U.N. Security Council, with the United States as a permanent member, unanimously adopted a resolution condemning the 'unlawful destruction of cultural heritage, inter alia destruction of religious sites and artefacts' in armed conflicts.... But with a U.S. president now threatening to attack cultural sites in Iran, the narrative that the United States helped to advance now appears in doubt." ~~~

~~~ John Bellinger in Lawfare: "On Sunday, Jan. 5, President Trump -- as he is wont to do when criticized -- doubled down on his threat to bomb Iranian cultural sites if Iran attacks the United States in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. Although the United States is not a party to the Rome Statute, which makes intentional attacks on historic monuments a war crime, the United States is a party to the 1954 Hague Convention on Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict, which the Senate approved in September 2008, when I was legal adviser.... Trump and Vice President Mike Pence should learn the domestic and international law rules that govern the use of military force and the conduct of military operations and to understand why they are important." ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Chait: "The unfolding Iran adventure seems to open once again the question of what principle, if any, defines this president's foreign policy. Isolationism? Nationalism? Whatever Fox News is demanding at any given moment? His real North Star is in fact an idea he has explicated many times, but -- perhaps because it is so horrifying -- even his critics seem hesitant to accept as a true motivation. Trump's plan is to collapse the moral space between America and its enemies.... Our enemies are stronger and tougher, [Trump believes,] willing to do the hard things that must be done in order to win. To defeat them, we must become like them. Trump has long dismissed respect for human rights, international law, and innocent life as a form of political correctness.... The protective cordon surrounding Trump has eroded..., and it would be foolish to assume [aides] will necessarily succeed in stopping his latest unthinkable act.... From [his] premise that the authoritarians of the world are strong and correct, and its (small-d) democrats are politically correct fools, his broader recasting of America's alliances makes perfect sense. Of course he would draw the United States closer to Russia, the Gulf States, and the emerging autocrats of Europe...."

Wild Card. Nicholas Fandos & Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "John R. Bolton, the former White House national security adviser, said on Monday that he was willing to testify at President Trump's impeachment trial if he was subpoenaed. 'I have concluded that, if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify,' Mr. Bolton said in a statement on his website. The development is a dramatic turn in the impeachment proceeding, which has been stalled over Democrats' insistence on hearing from critical witnesses Mr. Trump blocked from testifying in the House inquiry.... Mr. Bolton is a potential bombshell of a witness, with crucial knowledge of the president's actions and conversations regarding Ukraine that could fill out key blanks in the narrative of the impeachment case. His willingness to tell the Senate what he knows ratchets up pressure on Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, who has refused to commit to calling witnesses at the impeachment trial, to change his stance. It is unclear how the White House will respond to Mr. Bolton's declaration, but his statement strongly suggested that he would testify regardless of whether Mr. Trump sought to prevent him." Politico's story is here.

Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "Julián Castro on Monday threw his backing behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren for president, only days after suspending his own bid for the White House. 'There's one candidate I see who's to fight like hell to make sure America's promise will be there for everyone, who will make sure that no matter where you live in America or where your family came from in the world, you have a path to opportunity, too,' Castro says in a video announcing his endorsement." The New York Times story is here.

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** Ben Hubbard, et al., of the New York Times: "Mr. Trump has said that the killing of General Suleimani on Friday was aimed at preventing war. But so far, it has unleashed a host of unanticipated consequences that could dramatically alter where the United States operates. Increasingly, the killing appeared to be generating effects far beyond the United States' ability to control. That may include Iran's nuclear future. On Sunday, the Iranian government said it was abandoning its 'final limitations in the nuclear deal,' the international agreement intended to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. The decision leaves no restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, the statement said, including on uranium enrichment, production, research and expansion." A Politico story is here. Mrs. McC: Obviously, this is what to expect when you privilege drones over diplomats. ~~~

~~~ David Sanger & William Broad of the New York Times: "When President Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, he justified his unilateral action by saying the accord was flawed, in part because the major restrictions on Iran ended after 15 years, when Tehran would be free to produce as much nuclear fuel as it wanted. But now, instead of buckling to American pressure, Iran declared on Sunday that those restrictions are over -- a decade ahead of schedule. Mr. Trump's gambit has effectively backfired. Iran's announcement essentially sounded the death knell of the 2015 nuclear agreement. And it largely re-creates conditions that led Israel and the United States to consider destroying Iran's facilities a decade ago, again bringing them closer to the potential of open conflict with what was avoided by the accord. Iran did stop short of abandoning the entire deal on Sunday..., and its foreign minister held open the possibility that his nation would return to its provisions in the future -- if Mr. Trump reversed course and lifted the sanctions he has imposed since withdrawing from the accord." ~~~

OMG, Trump thinks a crazed Tweet satisfies his War Powers Act obligations to Congress. Our President has taken us to the brink of war and is now vamping with no plan and no clue. Please, someone in the GOP, take the car keys - read the 25th Amendment. -- Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), in a tweet ~~~

~~~ Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "President Trump claimed Sunday that his tweets are sufficient notice to Congress of any possible U.S. military strike on Iran, in an apparent dismissal of his obligations under the War Powers Act of 1973. Trump's declaration ... was met with disbelief and ridicule from congressional Democrats.... 'These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner,' Trump tweeted from his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., late Sunday afternoon. 'Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless!' Trump's claim that the United States will retaliate against Iran 'perhaps in a disproportionate manner' also contrasts with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's statement hours earlier on 'Fox News Sunday' that the administration 'will take responses that are appropriate and commensurate with actions that threaten American lives.' The War Powers Act of 1973 mandates that the president report to lawmakers within 48 hours of introducing military forces into armed conflict abroad. On Saturday, the White House delivered a formal notification to Congress of the strike that killed Soleimani.... But the document, which is entirely classified, drew scathing criticism from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who said in a statement that the notification 'raises more questions than it answers.'" A Hill story is here. ~~~

~~~ Jim Sciutto of CNN: "Two senior US officials on Sunday described widespread opposition within the administration to targeting cultural sites in Iran should the United States launch retaliatory strikes against Tehran, despite ... Donald Trump saying a day before that such sites are among dozens the US has identified as potential targets.... Among those critics was Colin Kahl, former deputy assistant to President Barack Obama and national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, who tweeted on Saturday that targeting such sites would be 'a war crime' and that he finds it 'hard to believe the Pentagon would provide Trump targeting options that include' them." ~~~

     ~~~ MEANWHILE. Guardian liveblog: "Donald Trump has defended his threat to target Iranian cultural sites -- widely seen as a war crime -- if Tehran retaliates for the killing of General Qassem Suleimani.... Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One a day later, he sought to offer a justification. 'They're allowed to kill our people,' Trump said, according to a pool report. 'They're allowed to torture and maim our people. They're allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we're not allowed to touch their cultural site? It doesn't work that way.'" Mrs. McC: Actually, it does work that way, according to international law & U.S. military code. Government operatives are not "allowed" to commit war crimes. They face punishment when they do commit them. On the other hand, if it's an American who has committed a war crime, you're likely to pardon him. ~~~

~~~ Quint Forgey of Politico: "Congressional Democrats on Sunday expressed skepticism toward the evidence the Trump administration has cited to justify its killing of Iran's top military commander -- an explosive American military maneuver that inflamed regional tensions and heightened the potential for further conflict between Washington and Tehran. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) demanded that administration officials make public more details regarding the intelligence that precipitated ... Donald Trump's unexpected decision last week to order the drone strike targeting Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Islamic Republic's elite paramilitary Quds Force." ~~~

~~~ Zachary Cohen of CNN: "Top US national security officials continue to defend the Trump administration's claim that it killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in response to an impending threat to American lives, but the lack of evidence provided to lawmakers and the public has fueled lingering skepticism about whether the strike was justified.... The administration has failed to connect the dots in a way that provides a clear picture of an imminent threat and that argument has been obscured by inconsistent messaging from US officials.... In an interview with CNN Friday, Democratic Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico said more than once that he does not believe an attack on the United States was imminent as President Donald Trump and other top administration officials have said.... A ... US official raised additional questions about the motive for the strike, telling CNN it had presidential authorization at this level and they opted for a preemptive option after the previous moves of maximum pressure didn't change the Iranian pattern of behavior." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ David Atkins in the Washington Monthly: "Interventionists and anti-imperialists don't agree on much in foreign policy. But even if they take directly opposite approaches, they tend to agree that championing democratic values and human rights should be a primary goal of American foreign policy, and that it's better for other nations to see the United States as a friend than as an enemy. On both of those counts, Donald Trump's reckless decision to assassinate a prominent Iranian general has been a colossal failure.... The attack itself was ostensibly a violation of international law and Geneva Conventions. The president's gross threat the following day to attack Iranian cultural sites was an even clearer crime, and far less strategically or morally defensible.... Trump and his enablers have dramatically weakened the position of both America and western liberal values, setting the world on a much more dangerous course." ~~~

~~~ ** Alissa Rubin, et al., of the New York Times: "Lawmakers in Iraq heeded the demands of angry citizens and voted on Sunday to expel United States troops from the country after the United States ordered the killing of the Iranian leader of the elite Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, on Iraqi soil. The decision came as hundreds of thousands of mourners poured into the streets of Iran to pay their respects to General Suleimani, the most powerful figure in the country after the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The vote is not final until Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi of Iraq signs the draft bill. Earlier on Sunday, Mr. Mahdi indicated that he would do so.... American troops are in Iraq 'at the invitation' of the Iraqi government, according to the legal agreement between Baghdad and Washington. Presumably, if Baghdad withdrew that invitation, the United States would have to withdraw." A Deutsche Welle story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Pompeo, Minutes Earlier. Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday dismissed calls by Iraq's caretaker prime minister for a timetable for all foreign troops to exit the country.... 'He's under enormous threats from the very Iranian leadership that it is that we are pushing back against,' Pompeo said on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'We are confident that the Iraqi people want the United States to continue to be there to fight the counterterror campaign. And we'll continue to do all the things we need to do to keep America safe.' Pressed by host Chris Wallace on what the United States will do if the Iraqi parliament demands that American troops leave the country, Pompeo declined to say." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Riley Beggin of Vox: "Some Iraqi officials -- including Mahdi -- have complained that the US' attack on Soleimani violated Iraqi sovereignty. In a Sunday speech before Parliament recommending a 'yes' vote on the resolution, Mahdi told lawmakers ... Donald Trump spoke to him ahead of the strike and failed to mention it, according to the Washington Post's Mustafa Salim. Mahdi said he also explicitly told Trump the US was not to bring additional US military resources into the country." Beggin describes several complications surrounding the vote & how an expulsion of troops might play out. ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Swan of Axios: "The Trump administration tried, unsuccessfully, to persuade top Iraqi officials to kill a parliamentary effort to force the U.S. military out of Iraq, according to two U.S. officials and an Iraqi government official familiar with the situation.... Trump administration officials have warned senior Iraqi officials that Iraq would suffer dangerous consequences if the U.S. withdrew its military and its funding of the Iraqi security apparatus, according to sources familiar with the outreach. On the other hand, Trump has also told advisers he thinks it's ridiculous that America has been paying billions of dollars to support an Iraqi security apparatus that, in his view, is demonstrably incompetent, disloyal to America and close to Iran." ~~~

     ~~~ Update 2. Trump Threatens Iraq. Joanna Tan of CNBC: "... Donald Trump threatened Sunday to slap sanctions on Iraq after its parliament passed a resolution calling for the government to expel foreign troops from the country.... Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, the U.S. president said: 'If they do ask us to leave, if we don't do it in a very friendly basis, we will charge them sanctions like they've never seen before ever. It'll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame. We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that's there. It cost billions of dollars to build. Long before my time We're not leaving unless they pay us back for it.' He added that 'If there's any hostility, that they do anything we think is inappropriate, we are going to put sanctions on Iraq, very big sanctions on Iraq.'" ~~~

~~~ Stephen Collinson of CNN: "The Trump administration is already in danger of losing control of the swift chain reaction and political storm unleashed by its killing of Iran's top general, Qasem Soleimani.... Donald Trump's claim that the drone strike last week made Americans safer is being challenged by cascading events that appear to leave the US more vulnerable and isolated. The administration's basis for the attack also came under renewed suspicion after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNN that it was not 'relevant' for him to reveal how imminent the attacks on US interests were that Trump said Soleimani was planning.... Washington's European allies, meanwhile, distanced themselves from Trump's assault. The US-led ISIS coalition temporarily stopped action against the terror group to protect Iraqi bases from Iranian-backed militias." Mrs. McC: Otherwise, everything is going very smoothly. ~~~

~~~ Blame the Briefers! Daniel Politi of Slate: "Pentagon officials usually include a far-out option when they present possibilities to the president in order to make the others seem less extreme.... 'The Pentagon also tacked on the choice of targeting General Suleimani, mainly to make other options seem reasonable,' reports the [New York] Times. [Story by Helene Cooper & others also linked here yesterday.] At first, it seemed everything was going according to plan. Trump rejected the option to kill Soleimani to respond to a wave of recent Iranian-sponsored violence in Iraq.... Then things changed when protesters gathered outside the U.S. embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday.... Suddenly, Trump was worried that failing to respond to the protests would look weak. By Thursday, Trump had decided to go forward with the killing of Soleimani and 'top Pentagon officials were stunned,' reports the Times." ~~~

     ~~~ John Cole of Balloon Juice: "Don't give him any extreme options. The saying 'POWERPOINT IS GOING TO BE THE DEATH OF US' was not supposed to be literal." ~~~

~~~ Erin Cunningham of the Washington Post covers many of the weekend's developments in this report.

Ryan Browne & Michael Callahan of CNN: "Three Americans were killed in Sunday's terror attack in Kenya. The Americans -- a US service member and two civilian contractors working for the Defense Department -- were killed in the attack carried out by Al-Shabaab, US Africa Command, which is responsible for military relations with nations on the continent, confirmed to CNN. Two DOD members wounded in the attack are now in stable condition and are being evacuated, Africa Command said. The attack occurred at a Kenya Defense Force in Manda Bay, Kenya. Sources have previously told CNN that the base was used by US Special Operations forces working with the Kenyans.... Al-Shabaab has previously pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda."

Rachel Bade of the Washington Post: "Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey O. Graham suggested Sunday that Republicans should try to change Senate rules governing impeachment if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi continues to withhold the charges against President Trump -- an unlikely 11th-hour bid to begin a trial within days without the actual documents. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was unequivocal in a Senate floor speech on Friday that 'we can't hold a trial without the articles; the Senate's own rules don't provide for that.' But Graham (R-S.C.), a close ally of Trump, floated the idea of a unilateral GOP move, saying he would work with McConnell to allow the Senate to proceed without the two charges against Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The suggestion, while unlikely due to the high threshold of votes required for changing Senate impeachment rules, underscores the pressure some Trump allies feel as the president stews over the impeachment delay."

Presidential Race. David Leonhardt of the New York Times: "So where are you supposed to find a comfortably electable, qualified candidate who won't turn 80 while in office? Senator Amy Klobuchar has become an answer to that question in the final month before voting begins.... Her greatest strength is her understanding of how to beat Republicans.... I am also struck by Klobuchar's views about how to run against Trump this time -- to talk about how he has let down the country (which gives his old supporters permission to switch sides), to use humor against his demagoguery and to appeal to voters' emotions and patriotism.... Many Democratic voters care more about beating Trump than anything else. For them, Klobuchar deserves a look." Mrs. McC: Based on my reading of his NYT columns, Leonhardt is quite liberal. If he can consider voting for Klobuchar, I can too. And yeah, I'm still bothered by reports of her throwing stuff at staffers more than her too-moderate views.

** Hansi Lo Wang of NPR: "More than a year after his death, a cache of computer files saved on the hard drives of Thomas Hofeller, a prominent Republican redistricting strategist, is becoming public.... They have been cited as evidence of gerrymandering that got political maps thrown out in North Carolina, and they have raised questions about Hofeller's role in the Trump administration's failed push for a census citizenship question... Now more of the files are available online through a website called The Hofeller Files, where Hofeller's daughter, Stephanie Hofeller, published a link to her copy of the files on Sunday.... The files document the wide reach of Thomas Hofeller's work on political maps across the country -- including in Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia, as well as New York's Nassau County and Texas' Galveston and Nueces counties." --s

The Commentariat -- January 5, 2020

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

Zachary Cohen of CNN: "Top US national security officials continue to defend the Trump administration's claim that it killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in response to an impending threat to American lives, but the lack of evidence provided to lawmakers and the public has fueled lingering skepticism about whether the strike was justified.... The administration has failed to connect the dots in a way that provides a clear picture of an imminent threat and that argument has been obscured by inconsistent messaging from US officials.... In an interview with CNN Friday, Democratic Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico said more than once that he does not believe an attack on the United States was imminent as President Donald Trump and other top administration officials have said.... A ... US official raised additional questions about the motive for the strike, telling CNN it had presidential authorization at this level and they opted for a preemptive option after the previous moves of maximum pressure didn't change the Iranian pattern of behavior."

Alissa Rubin, et al., of the New York Times: "Lawmakers in Iraq heeded the demands of angry citizens and voted on Sunday to expel United States troops from the country after the United States ordered the killing of the Iranian leader of the elite Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, on Iraqi soil. The decision came as hundreds of thousands of mourners poured into the streets of Iran to pay their respects to General Suleimani, the most powerful figure in the country after the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The vote is not final until Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi of Iraq signs the draft bill. Earlier on Sunday, Mr. Mahdi indicated that he would do so.... American troops are in Iraq 'at the invitation' of the Iraqi government, according to the legal agreement between Baghdad and Washington. Presumably, if Baghdad withdrew that invitation, the United States would have to withdraw." A Deutsche Welle story is here. ~~~

~~~ Pompeo, Minutes Earlier. Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday dismissed calls by Iraq's caretaker prime minister for a timetable for all foreign troops to exit the country.... 'He's under enormous threats from the very Iranian leadership that it is that we are pushing back against,' Pompeo said on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'We are confident that the Iraqi people want the United States to continue to be there to fight the counterterror campaign. And we'll continue to do all the things we need to do to keep America safe.' Pressed by host Chris Wallace on what the United States will do if the Iraqi parliament demands that American troops leave the country, Pompeo declined to say."

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Seung Min Kim of the Washington Post: "The White House delivered a formal notification of the drone strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani to Capitol Hill Saturday, as required under the War Powers Act, according to a senior Democratic aide and another official familiar with the matter. The War Powers Act of 1973 mandates that the president report to lawmakers within 48 hours of introducing military forces into armed conflict abroad. Such notifications generally detail an administration's justification for U.S. intervention, as well as the constitutional and legislative rationale used by the administration to send troops.... The formal notification received at the Capitol on Saturday is entirely classified, according to the senior Democratic aide, and it is unclear whether the administration will issue a non-classified version that can be publicized." ~~~

First Trump Decided to Kill Soleimani, Then the Administration Came up with Intelligence to Justify It. Jonathan Lemire & Matthew Lee of the AP: "At the midway point of his annual Christmas vacation..., Donald Trump huddled at his Florida club with his top national security advisers. Days earlier, a rocket attack by an Iranian-funded group struck a U.S.-Iraqi base, killing an American contractor and wounding several others. Trump's advisers presented him with an array of options for responding, including the most dramatic possible response: taking out Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force and the man responsible for hundreds of Americans deaths. Trump immediately wanted to target Soleimani.... Some advisers voiced concern about the legal justification for a strike without evidence of an imminent attack in the works against Americans." ~~~

     ~~~ Helene Cooper, et al., of the New York Times write a similar story with different details. "Mr. Trump made the decision [to assassinate Suleimani], senior officials said on Saturday, despite disputes in the administration about the significance of what some officials said was a new stream of intelligence that warned of threats to American embassies, consulates and military personnel in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.... According to one United States official, the new intelligence indicated 'a normal Monday in the Middle East' -- Dec. 30 -- and General Suleimani' travels amounted to 'business as usual.' That official described the intelligence as thin and said that General Suleimani's attack was not imminent.... On Capitol Hill, Democrats voiced growing suspicions about the intelligence that led to the killing.... In Palm Beach, Fla., Mr. Trump lashed back [at Iran's threats to retaliate], promising to strike 52 sites across Iran -- representing the number of American hostages taken by Iran in 1979 -- if Iran attacked Americans or American interests. On Saturday night, Mr. Trump warned on Twitter that some sites were 'at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie to the Men & Women Who Serve Us in Dangerous Places: I know some of you are jerks & some of you are clueless but most of you are honorable public servants and all of you deserve to have a commander-in-chief who DOES NOT TWEET-SHOUT threats at our adversaries. Just sayin'. May the Fates bless you, every one. Oh, and did I mention that what Trump is threatening are war crimes? ~~~

     ~~~ Matt Naham of Law & Crime: "Legal observers immediately noted that attacking such sites of cultural importance is a war crime.... [Under] the Geneva Conventions..., 'it is prohibited: (a) to commit any acts of hostility directed against the historic monuments, works of art or places of worship which constitute the cultural or spiritual heritage of peoples; (b) to use such objects in support of the military effort; (c) to make such objects the object of reprisals.'... George Conway [in a tweet]: '@realDonaldTrump is too dumb to know it's a war crime, but also too demented to care.'" ~~~

~~~ Assassins Я Us. Ed Pilkington of the Guardian: "The US government is no stranger to the dark arts of political assassinations. Over the decades it has deployed elaborate techniques against its foes, from dispatching a chemist armed with lethal poison to try to take out Congo's Patrice Lumumba in the 1960s to planting poison pills (equally unsuccessfully) in the Cuban leader Fidel Castro's food. But the killing of Gen Qassem Suleimani, the leader of Iran's elite military Quds force, was in in a class its own. Its uniqueness lay not so much in its method ... but in the brazenness of its execution and the apparently total disregard for either legal niceties or human consequences.... Donald Trump's gloating tweets over the killing combined with a sparse effort to justify the action in either domestic or international law has led to the US being accused of the very crimes it normally pins on its enemies.... Most of the interventions in the modern era have been covert and conducted beneath the radar. Where they have been proclaimed publicly, they have tended to target non-state actors operating in militias or militant groups like Islamic State. By contrast, until Trump the US has tended to fight shy of conducting overt assassination attempts on state actors connected to sovereign regimes. Suleimani himself is a case in point." ~~~

~~~ The TV Presidunce* Summer Concepcion of TPM: "President Trump's dissatisfaction with media coverage when he halted an airstrike against Iran last year reportedly influenced his authorization of the strike that killed top Iranian military official Qasem Soleimani Thursday night.... Officials told the Post that Trump was also compelled to authorize the Soleimani strike due to what he viewed as negative coverage that ensued after his decision last year to call off the airstrike targeting Iran. Additionally, Trump held frustration over the details of his internal deliberations leaking out -- which he felt made him looked weak.... Lawmakers and aides who have spoken to Trump told the Post that the President's fixation on Benghazi and the Obama administration's response to it also played a role into his decision." --s ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: In addition, the Times story by Helene Cooper & others, linked above, centers on how surprised Trump's top aides were when he opted for the "most extreme option" they presented him: "After initially rejecting the Suleimani option on Dec. 28 and authorizing airstrikes on an Iranian-backed Shia militia group instead, a few days later Mr. Trump watched, fuming, as television reports showed Iranian-backed attacks on the American Embassy in Baghdad, according to Defense Department and administration officials." That is, it was TV coverage that caused him to opt for assassination. Still, the most shocking -- but not surprising -- part of Concepcion's report is that Trump thinks "deliberations make him look weak." A big part of a president's job is making decisions based on "deliberations." Yet Trump seems to think that accepting expert -- and not necessarily consistent -- advice is a weakness. ~~~

~~~ Conor Finnegan & Adia Robinson of ABC News: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday on ABC's 'This Week,' that the world is a safer place as a result of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani's death.... In response to a New York Times report about officials who questioned the rationale behind the strike, the secretary of state said there was no skepticism among senior leaders with access to all of the intelligence.... 'We're having to clean up their mess,' Pompeo said of the Obama administration...." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Anyone who can reason would question the notion that assassination of bad state actors makes the world "a safer place." And one certainly would think that anyone who held a powerful, high government position -- that is, someone who could be a target of assassins' plans -- would be able to reason this out. But no. ~~~

     ~~~ Robert Burns of the AP: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday the U.S. strategy in countering Iran is to target the country's 'actual decision-makers' rather than to focus on Iranian proxy forces in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East." Mrs. McC: Pompeo seems blissfully unaware that, say, he and Trump are "actual decision-makers." ~~~

~~~ "The World Is a Safer Place Today," Ctd. Zachary Cohen, et al., of CNN: "The Trump administration has warned members of Congress that Iran is expected to retaliate against the US 'within weeks' for the strike that killed Qasem Soleimani even as they failed to convince some that the operation was merited due to an imminent threat against American lives.There are also intense discussions taking place inside US military and intelligence agencies to assess whether Iran might be preparing some type of retaliatory strikes in the next few days or wait for some time, according to a US official with direct knowledge of the situation. 'There are conflicting views' on whether Iran will quickly retaliate or wait, but US military defenses are ready, the official said.Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley publicly addressed the issue of potential retaliation from Iran Friday. When asked whether there is now a risk to US safety in the region, Milley bluntly said, 'Damn right there is risk.'" ~~~

~~~ Joe Heim of the Washington Post: "Hundreds of demonstrators gathered in Lafayette Square across from the White House on Saturday afternoon to voice opposition to the deployment of additional U.S. troops to the Middle East, demand the removal of American forces from Iraq and warn against getting into a war with Iran.... Organized in Washington by Code Pink: Women for Peace and the ANSWER Coalition (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), the protest was one of dozens that took place Saturday in cities and towns across the country including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, Memphis, Salt Lake City and Tucson." ~~~

~~~ Deutsche Welle: "Several rockets fell in and around Baghdad on Saturday evening, [linked fixed] including an attack targeting an air base housing US troops, the Iraqi military said. Several rockets fell in the city's Jadriya neighborhood as well as the heavily fortified Green Zone which houses government buildings and several foreign missions, including the US Embassy. Blasts also targeted the the Balad air base, located 80 kilomteters (50 miles) north of Baghdad, which is hosting US troops in Iraq. Security sources told news agency AFP that surveillance drones were sent out above the base to locate the source of the rockets. Iraqi military added in their statement that there was 'no loss of life.'" (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Summer Concepcion of TPM: "During an appearance on Fox News host Sean Hannity's Friday night, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threw European allies under the bus for not coming around to President Trump's authorization of the strike that killed top Iranian military official Qasem Soleimani. When Hannity asked Pompeo what other countries have been telling him after the strike that killed Soleimani, the secretary of state said that he'd been 'talking to partners in the region' which has been 'fantastic.'... However, Pompeo added that 'talking to our partners in other places' such as European allies hasn't 'been quite as good.' 'Frankly, the Europeans haven't been as helpful as I wish that they could be,' Pompeo said. 'The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did -- what the Americans did -- saved lives in Europe as well.'" --s ~~~

~~~ Maanvi Singh of the Guardian: "In defense of his administration's decision to assassinate Qassem Suleimani, Mike Pence has been promoting conspiracy theories that link September 11 terrorists to Iran. In a series of tweets, the US vice-president ... insisted that the general 'assisted in the clandestine travel to Afghanistan of 10 of the 12 terrorists who carried out the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States', misstating the number of 9/11 hijackers -- there were 19 -- and insinuating Suleimani's involvement despite a lack of evidence. Foreign policy experts were quick to point out on social media that Pence's assertions were unsubstantiated. The official 9/11 commission report found there was 'no evidence that Iran or Hezbollah was aware of the planning for what later became the 9/11 attack', and that 15 out of the 19 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia, and the remainder were from the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon and Egypt. Moreover, Suleimani's name is never mentioned in the nearly 600-page report. Experts have also pointed out that Suleimani, a Shia leader, would have been an unlikely ally to the Sunni militants that carried out the attacks." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: If only the Senate would remove Trump from office, we would get a real stable genius sort of president. ~~~

~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Now that I've reread the Raw Story piece about Pompeo's calling Lavrov and have done some cursory research, I see I misread the story: Pompeo called Lavrov on Friday; that is, after the drone strike. By this time, someone at State had called Chuck Schumer, according to a teevee news report I heard. Schumer apparently said to the caller, "Thanks for telling me what I've already heard on the news." So my bad. I apologize. (See related stories linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Faith Hassan, et al., of the New York Times: "Even before the shock of the brazen killing wore off, Iraqi factions were weighing their responses. Militias with ties to Iran vowed bloody revenge. The prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, condemned the attack as 'an outrageous breach to Iraqi sovereignty' and said Parliament would meet to discuss the future of the United States presence in Iraq.... Throughout the country, there was the familiar feeling that Iraq was a mere bystander in the broader geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran taking place on Iraqi soil. More broadly, the events raised a single, overarching question: can the United States maintain a cooperative security relationship with Iraq given the upheaval the assassination has provoked?" (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Mark Mazzetti of the New York Times: "The powers of an American president to wage war have grown stronger for nearly two decades, ever since the Sept. 11 attacks led the United States into an era of perpetual conflict. Those powers are now in the hands of the most volatile president in recent memory. President Trump's decision to authorize the killing of a top Iranian military leader could be the match that sets off a regional conflagration, or it could have only marginal geopolitical impact like so many of the targeted killings ordered by Mr. Trump and his predecessors. But it is just the latest example of the capricious way in which the president, as commander in chief, has chosen to flex his lethal powers." ~~~

~~~ Susan Rice, in a New York Times op-ed: "Despite President Trump's oft-professed desire to avoid war with Iran and withdraw from military entanglements in the Middle East, his decision to order the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran's second most important official, as well as Iraqi leaders of an Iranian-backed militia, now locks our two countries in a dangerous escalatory cycle that will likely lead to wider warfare.... Given the demonstrably haphazard and shortsighted nature of the Trump administration's national security decision-making process (including calling off strikes against Iran 10 minutes before impact, inviting the Taliban to Camp David and abandoning the Kurds), it's doubtful the administration spent much time gaming out the second and third order consequences of their action or preparing to protect American military and diplomatic personnel in the region.... It's hard to envision how this ends short of war." ~~~

Matt Welch of Reason: "'Don't trust liars -- especially about matters of war and peace,' writes Vox's Matthew Yglesias. 'Today's a day,' The Atlantic's David Frum posits, 'when the most untruthful administration in US history will wish its statements could be believed.' It is appropriate, necessary, yet insufficient to remember that government lying is bad, that government lying about war is particularly bad, and that Donald Trump is one of the most bizarrely promiscuous liars ever seen in American political life. Insufficient, because laying the blame on one particular administration, or even one major political party, too often becomes a de facto credulousness about the war-related veracity of other administrations. The truth, which literally hurts, is that every administration lies about war, particularly (though not only) about its reasons for initiating deadly force. It was literally only last month that The Washington Post's 'Afghanistan Papers' project detailed how America's longest war has been a nearly two-decade festival of deadly bullshit." (Also linked yesterday.)

Peter Nicholas of the Atlantic on why Congressional Republicans have Trump's back: "No doubt congressional Republicans fear Trump because of his unshakable grip on the party's base.... But there's another reason they've shielded him from impeachment: He's wooed Republicans who can protect his interests, cultivating relationships with them in ways that are not always visible or understood.... Trump has built personal ties with key members of Congress that have cemented their loyalty.... Fundamentally, Trump's relationships with Congress are transactional. He works at them continually.... Since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi launched the impeachment proceedings in late September, Trump has dialed up the charm."

All Trump's Money Trails Lead to Russia. Scott Stedman, et al., of Forensic News: "Deutsche Bank's loans to Donald Trump were underwritten by Russian state-owned VTB Bank, according to the whistleblower whose collection of thousands of bank documents and internal communications have captured the recent attention of federal investigators.... Forensic News is not confirming the underlying claim that VTB underwrote Trump's loans from Deutsche Bank. Forensic News can, however, confirm that at least some of Trump's loans were issued by a bank subsidiary with business ties to VTB. That subsidiary owed more than $48 million to VTB in 2013 and documents suggest the subsidiary continued doing business with VTB even after the bank was sanctioned in 2014." Thanks to unwashed for the link. (Also linked yesterday.)

The Golden Bull. Richard Luscombe of the Guardian: "They came to pray with their president, though in truth many came just to worship him.... An estimated 7,000 'supporters of faith' packed the King Jesus international ministry megachurch in Miami to hear the word of the president, and decided that it was good. The Maga hat-wearing faithful cheered Trump's comments on issues calculated to resonate with his churchgoing audience, including abortion, freedoms of speech and religion, and what he claimed was a 'crusade' from Democrats against religious tolerance.... Friday's rally, hastily organized in the wake of a stinging Christianity Today editorial last month, recognized Trump's need to retain the loyalty of the evangelical voting bloc that propelled him to victory in 2016. Four years ago, he won 80% backing from white evangelical voters nationwide." (Also linked yesterday.)

Presidential Races 2016 & 2020

** Carole Cadwalladr of the Guardian: "An explosive leak of tens of thousands of documents from the defunct data firm Cambridge Analytica is set to expose the inner workings of the company that collapsed after the Observer revealed it had misappropriated 87 million Facebook profiles. More than 100,000 documents relating to work in 68 countries that will lay bare the global infrastructure of an operation used to manipulate voters on 'an industrial scale' is set to be released over the next months.... The documents were revealed to have come from Brittany Kaiser, an ex-Cambridge Analytica employee turned whistleblower, and to be the same ones subpoeaned by Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.... Emma Briant, an academic at Bard College, New York, who ... has had access to some of the documents for research, said that what had been revealed was 'the tip of the iceberg'. 'The documents reveal a much clearer idea of what actually happened in the 2016 US presidential election, which has a huge bearing on what will happen in 2020. It's the same people involved who we know are building on these same techniques,' she said." --s

Money Counts! Tess Bonn of the Hill: "Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg saw a 6-point bump in the latest Hill-HarrisX survey of the Democratic presidential primary. The nationwide poll, which was released Friday, shows Bloomberg up from 5 percent to 11 percent support for the nomination nationally. The former New York City mayor is now in a dead heat for third place with top-tier candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who also received 11 percent support. [Joe] Biden, meanwhile, continues to lead the Democratic field with 28 percent followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 16 percent." (Also linked yesterday.)

Way Beyond the Beltway

Australia. Livia Albeck-Ripka, et al., of the New York Times: "Four days after a bush fire ravaged the remote coastal town of Mallacoota, forcing people to shelter on the beach under blood-red skies, more than 1,000 stranded residents and vacationers arrived on Saturday in Hastings, a town near Melbourne. The authorities said it was most likely the largest peacetime maritime rescue operation in Australia's history. It was also a symbol of a country in perpetual flight from danger during a catastrophic fire season -- and the challenge the government faces in getting the blazes under control. Searing heat and afternoon winds propelled fires over large swaths of Australia on Saturday, adding to the devastation of a deadly fire season that has now claimed 23 lives. Thousands of people have been evacuated, while many towns and cities under threat were still smoldering from ferocious blazes that ripped through the countryside earlier in the week. More than 12 million acres have burned so far, an area larger than Switzerland, and the damage is expected to only get worse in the extremely arid conditions that are allowing the fires to spread. The fires are also so hot and so large that they are creating their own weather patterns, which can worsen the conditions." (Also linked yesterday.)

Hong Kong/China. Keith Bradsher of the New York Times: "The Chinese government abruptly replaced its top representative in Hong Kong on Saturday evening, installing a senior Communist Party official with a record of difficult assignments in inland provinces that involved working closely with the security services. The top representative, Wang Zhimin, was replaced as the head of the powerful Central Liaison Office in Hong Kong by Luo Huining, the official Xinhua news service said. The move came two months after the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee called for measures to 'safeguard national security' in Hong Kong, although few details have been released."

The Commentariat -- January 4, 2020

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

Deutsche Welle: "Several rockets fell in and around Baghdad on Saturday evening, [linked fixed] including an attack targeting an air base housing US troops, the Iraqi military said. Several rockets fell in the city's Jadriya neighborhood as well as the heavily fortified Green Zone which houses government buildings and several foreign missions, including the US Embassy. Blasts also targeted the the Balad air base, located 80 kilomteters (50 miles) north of Baghdad, which is hosting US troops in Iraq. Security sources told news agency AFP that surveillance drones were sent out above the base to locate the source of the rockets. Iraqi military added in their statement that there was 'no loss of life.'"

Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Now that I've reread the Raw Story piece about Pompeo's calling Lavrov and have done some cursory research, I see I misread the story: Pompeo called Lavrov on Friday; that is, after the drone strike. By this time, someone at State had called Chuck Schumer, according to a teevee news report I heard. Schumer apparently said to the caller, "Thanks for telling me what I've already heard on the news." So my bad. I apologize.

Australia. Livia Albeck-Ripka, et al., of the New York Times: "Four days after a bush fire ravaged the remote coastal town of Mallacoota, forcing people to shelter on the beach under blood-red skies, more than 1,000 stranded residents and vacationers arrived on Saturday in Hastings, a town near Melbourne. The authorities said it was most likely the largest peacetime maritime rescue operation in Australia's history. It was also a symbol of a country in perpetual flight from danger during a catastrophic fire season -- and the challenge the government faces in getting the blazes under control. Searing heat and afternoon winds propelled fires over large swaths of Australia on Saturday, adding to the devastation of a deadly fire season that has now claimed 23 lives. Thousands of people have been evacuated, while many towns and cities under threat were still smoldering from ferocious blazes that ripped through the countryside earlier in the week. More than 12 million acres have burned so far, an area larger than Switzerland, and the damage is expected to only get worse in the extremely arid conditions that are allowing the fires to spread. The fires are also so hot and so large that they are creating their own weather patterns, which can worsen the conditions."

Maanvi Singh of the Guardian: "In defense of his administration's decision to assassinate Qassem Suleimani, Mike Pence has been promoting conspiracy theories that link September 11 terrorists to Iran. In a series of tweets, the US vice-president ... insisted that the general 'assisted in the clandestine travel to Afghanistan of 10 of the 12 terrorists who carried out the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States', misstating the number of 9/11 hijackers -- there were 19 -- and insinuating Suleimani's involvement despite a lack of evidence. Foreign policy experts were quick to point out on social media that Pence's assertions were unsubstantiated. The official 9/11 commission report found there was 'no evidence that Iran or Hezbollah was aware of the planning for what later became the 9/11 attack', and that 15 out of the 19 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia, and the remainder were from the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon and Egypt. Moreover, Suleimani's name is never mentioned in the nearly 600-page report. Experts have also pointed out that Suleimani, a Shia leader, would have been an unlikely ally to the Sunni militants that carried out the attacks." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: If only the Senate would remove Trump from office, we would get a real stable genius sort of president.

Faith Hassan, et al., of the New York Times: "Even before the shock of the brazen killing wore off, Iraqi factions were weighing their responses. Militias with ties to Iran vowed bloody revenge. The prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, condemned the attack as 'an outrageous breach to Iraqi sovereignty' and said Parliament would meet to discuss the future of the United States presence in Iraq.... Throughout the country, there was the familiar feeling that Iraq was a mere bystander in the broader geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran taking place on Iraqi soil. More broadly, the events raised a single, overarching question: can the United States maintain a cooperative security relationship with Iraq given the upheaval the assassination has provoked?"

The Golden Bull. Richard Luscombe of the Guardian: "They came to pray with their president, though in truth many came just to worship him.... An estimated 7,000 'supporters of faith' packed the King Jesus international ministry megachurch in Miami to hear the word of the president, and decided that it was good. The Maga hat-wearing faithful cheered Trump's comments on issues calculated to resonate with his churchgoing audience, including abortion, freedoms of speech and religion, and what he claimed was a 'crusade' from Democrats against religious tolerance.... Friday's rally, hastily organized in the wake of a stinging Christianity Today editorial last month, recognized Trump's need to retain the loyalty of the evangelical voting bloc that propelled him to victory in 2016. Four years ago, he won 80% backing from white evangelical voters nationwide."

Matt Welch of Reason: "'Don't trust liars -- especially about matters of war and peace,' writes Vox's Matthew Yglesias. 'Today's a day,' The Atlantic's David Frum posits, 'when the most untruthful administration in US history will wish its statements could be believed.' It is appropriate, necessary, yet insufficient to remember that government lying is bad, that government lying about war is particularly bad, and that Donald Trump is one of the most bizarrely promiscuous liars ever seen in American political life. Insufficient, because laying the blame on one particular administration, or even one major political party, too often becomes a de facto credulousness about the war-related veracity of other administrations. The truth, which literally hurts, is that every administration lies about war, particularly (though not only) about its reasons for initiating deadly force. It was literally only last month that The Washington Post's 'Afghanistan Papers' project detailed how America's longest war has been a nearly two-decade festival of deadly bullshit."

All Trump's Money Trails Lead to Russia. Scott Stedman, et al., of Forensic News: "Deutsche Bank's loans to Donald Trump were underwritten by Russian state-owned VTB Bank, according to the whistleblower whose collection of thousands of bank documents and internal communications have captured the recent attention of federal investigators.... Forensic News is not confirming the underlying claim that VTB underwrote Trump's loans from Deutsche Bank. Forensic News can, however, confirm that at least some of Trump's loans were issued by a bank subsidiary with business ties to VTB. That subsidiary owed more than $48 million to VTB in 2013 and documents suggest the subsidiary continued doing business with VTB even after the bank was sanctioned in 2014." Thanks to unwashed for the link.

Money Counts! Tess Bonn of the Hill: "Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg saw a 6-point bump in the latest Hill-HarrisX survey of the Democratic presidential primary. The nationwide poll, which was released Friday, shows Bloomberg up from 5 percent to 11 percent support for the nomination nationally. The former New York City mayor is now in a dead heat for third place with top-tier candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who also received 11 percent support. [Joe] Biden, meanwhile, continues to lead the Democratic field with 28 percent followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 16 percent."

~~~~~~~~~~

Eric Schmitt, et al., of the New York Times: In a few minutes, around 5 pm ET Friday, "Mr. Trump ... made one of the most consequential foreign policy decisions of his presidency, giving final authorization to a drone strike halfway around the world that would eliminate one of America's deadliest enemies while pushing the United States to the edge of an escalating confrontation with Iran that could transform the Middle East.... Both [Presidents Bush II & Obama] reasoned that killing the most powerful general in Iran would only risk a wider war with the country, alienating American allies in Europe and the Middle East and undermining the United States.... National security experts and even other officials at the Pentagon said they were unaware of anything drastically new about Iranian behavior in recent weeks; General Suleimani has been accused of prodding Shiite militias into attacking Americans for more than a decade." ~~~

     ~~~ Missy Ryan, et al., of the Washington Post: "Why Trump chose this moment to explore an operation against the leader of Iran's Quds Force, after tolerating Iranian aggression in the Persian Gulf for months, was a matter of debate within his own administration. Officials gave differing and incomplete accounts of the intelligence they said prompted Trump to act. Some said they were stunned by his decision, which could lead to war with one of America's oldest adversaries in the Middle East.... He ultimately gave final approval just before the strike, a senior administration official said, making the call from his golf resort." A Politico story is here. ~~~

~~~ Alissa Rubin, et al., of the New York Times: "As Iraq held joint funeral services on Saturday for two revered military leaders killed in an American drone strike near the Baghdad airport this past week, tens of thousands of pro-Iranian fighters marched through Baghdad, waving flags and chanting that 'revenge is coming' to the United States.... Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed 'forceful revenge' as the country mourned the death of General Suleimani and calls have accelerated to eject the United States from Iraq. Across the region, fears are rising that the shadow war that had been building between the United States and Iran could suddenly escalate into a wide-ranging conflict." Here's an AP story. ~~~

~~~ New York Times Live Updates Friday: "President Trump said Friday afternoon that the airstrike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the powerful Iranian commander, was ordered 'to stop a war' and prevented attacks on Americans. 'Suleimani was plotting imminent and sinister attacks on American diplomats and military personnel, but we caught him in the act and terminated him,' he said, speaking to reporters from his resort in West Palm Beach, Fla. 'We took action last night to stop a war, we did not take action to start a war.' Mr. Trump said the United States is not seeking regime change in Iran, but called for Tehran's 'aggression in the region' to immediately end. He also warned Iran against retaliating, saying, 'If Americans anywhere are threatened, we have all of those targets already fully identified, and I am ready and prepared to take whatever action is necessary.' He added, 'that in particular refers to Iran.'" ~~~

The Washington Post's live updates for Friday are here. "In a conference call with reporters, national security adviser Robert C. O'Brien said early Friday evening that the strike on Soleimani happened after the Iranian commander recently visited Damascus and was plotting to target Americans. 'He was planning attacks on American soldiers, airmen, Marines, sailors and against our diplomats,' he said. 'This strike was aimed at disrupting ongoing attacks that were being planned by Soleimani and deterring future Iranian attacks through their proxies or through the IRGC Quds Force directly against Americans.'" ~~~

~~~ Qassim Abdul-Zahra & Zeina Karam of the AP: "Another airstrike almost exactly 24 hours after the one that killed Soleimani hit two cars carrying Iran-backed militia north of Baghdad, killing five people, an Iraqi official said.... The Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces confirmed the strike, saying it targeted one of its medical convoys near the stadium in Taji, north of Baghdad. The group denied any of its top leaders were killed." ~~~

~~~ Zeke Miller, et al., of the AP: "The United States is sending nearly 3,000 more Army troops to the Mideast as reinforcements in the volatile aftermath of the killing of an Iranian general in a strike ordered by ... Donald Trump, defense officials said Friday. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a decision not yet announced by the Pentagon, said the troops are from the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. They are in addition to about 700 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne who deployed to Kuwait earlier this week after the storming of the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad by Iran-backed militiamen and their supporters." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Congressional Democrats are raising alarm over the lack of consultation from the Trump administration ahead of a deadly military strike against Iran's top general, which lawmakers called 'reckless' and a 'massive escalation' against Iran.... The sudden strike sets up a debate in Congress next week on whether Trump needs to seek authorization to respond to expected retaliation. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) ... called on Congress to act immediately to curtail Trump's military authority before he sparks another war in the Middle East...[:] 'Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign has made the region less stable, divided us from key allies, and is driving our adversaries together. Congress must act to stop President Trump from entangling America in yet another unnecessary war in the Middle East.'" (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ ** Sky Palma of the Raw Story: "Speaking on Israel's Channel 13, journalist Barak Ravid said that the 'United States informed Israel' about the operation in Iraq to kill Iranian military leader Gen. Qassem Suleimani 'a few days ago.' Additionally, The Los Angeles Times reports that an 'Israeli army officer with knowledge of Israeli military assessments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity...,' said that the attack that killed Suleimani 'did not come as a surprise.'... Also noteworthy is a Friday tweet from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who revealed that he discussed the attack with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as a means to 'protect American lives.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Carla Herreria & Akbar Ahmedof the Huffington Post: “The Trump administration did not inform Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) or Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) before its Friday morning strike in Iraq against top Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani, their aides told HuffPost via email. Schumer, the minority leader in the Senate, and Warner are part of what's called the 'Gang of Eight': powerful lawmakers whom presidents and their staff traditionally keep updated about a range of sensitive national security issues. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), another member of the group, appeared to suggest that she was not briefed either in a later statement." ~~~

     ~~~ Colby Itkowitz & Hannah Knowles of the Washington Post: "President Trump on Friday endorsed a tweet comparing the top Senate Democrat to Iran, the United States' longtime adversary, suggesting neither could be trusted, as Democratic leaders criticized the White House for ordering a military strike to kill a powerful Iranian commander without congressional input.... Trump retweeted conservative commentator Dinesh D'Souza, who, in response to a headline about Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) not receiving advance notice of the military operation, wrote: 'Neither were the Iranians, and for pretty much the same reason.' Trump made similar insinuations about Democrats' trustworthiness after the October raid that killed Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. At that time, Trump said he didn't tell House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), a former member of the Intelligence Committee, because 'he wanted to make sure this kept secret.'... Presidents typically inform the so-called Gang of Eight -- the House speaker and minority leader, the Senate majority and minority leaders, and the chairmen and ranking minority-party members of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees -- about high-level military operations." A Mediaite report is here.

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Congress should not let this go. The Trumpies informed Russia -- an adversary -- of their planned act of war but kept it hidden from Congressional Democrats, then implied the reason was that the Senate minority leader was a traitor. This is outrageous.

~~~ Morgan Chalfant & Brett Samuels of the Hill: "President Trump on Friday said Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the powerful Iranian military leader killed in a U.S. air strike on Thursday, 'should have been taken out many years ago' and that he was 'indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people.' Trump addressed the decision to launch air strikes that killed Iran's most powerful military commander in a pair of tweets that marked his first public comments on authorizing the action. 'General Qassem Soleimani has killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more ... but got caught! He was directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people, including the recent large number ... of PROTESTERS killed in Iran itself,' Trump tweeted Friday morning. 'While Iran will never be able to properly admit it, Soleimani was both hated and feared within the country. They are not nearly as saddened as the leaders will let the outside world believe. He should have been taken out many years ago!' the president wrote." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

    ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: One difference between a president and a president*: when Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Ladin, President Obama made a solemn address to the nation as soon as practicable. When a drone killed Iran's top military operative and his associates, Donald Trump sent out a couple of inelegant tweets. ~~~

~~~ Maybe Avi Selk of the Washington Post has found the real reason Trump ordered the assassination of Soleimani: "... he was ... one of President Trump's social media antagonists.... [The] back and forth [between Trump & Soleimani] took shape [in 2018] after Trump withdrew from a three-year-old nuclear deal with Iran, and as he threatened new economic penalties on the country.... Instagram suspended [Soleimani's] account in April [2019], after Trump followed through on his sanctions threat." ~~~

~~~ Erin Durkin of Politico: "New York City is bracing for the increased risk of a terrorist attack after the killing of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani by U.S. forces in Iraq, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Friday.... The NYPD will deploy additional, heavily armed officers at prominent sites around the city, officials said.... While the city has thwarted numerous terror plots in the nearly two decades since the Sept. 11 attacks, de Blasio said a conflict with a powerful state actor was different than anything confronted before." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Mission Accomplished. Nick Wadhams of Bloomberg: "Richard Goldberg, the U.S. National Security Council official who clashed with other members of the administration over his push for a more hawkish stance toward Iran, is leaving the job after one year for personal reasons, a person familiar with the matter said. Goldberg's departure comes just as tensions with Iran have soared.... Former National Security Adviser John Bolton created Goldberg's job -- director for countering Iran's weapons of mass destruction -- explicitly for him.... [The administration's hardened stance on Iran] underscored the influence wielded by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the think tank where Goldberg previously worked.... Goldberg will return to FDD, which continued to pay his salary during his time on the National Security Council." (Emphasis mine) --safari ~~~

The world is a much safer place today. -- U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on the assassination of Quassem Soleimani, Friday

U.S. citizens should depart [Iraq] via airline while possible, and failing that, to other countries via land. Due to Iranian-backed militia attacks at the U.S. Embassy compound, all public consular operations are suspended until further notice. U.S. citizens should not approach the Embassy. -- U.S. Department of State, in wake of the assassination of Soleimani, Friday ~~~

~~~ George Packer of the Atlantic: "Soleimani was a supremely powerful leader of a state apparatus, with his own cult of personality, but he was not a terror kingpin. His death doesn't decapitate anything. He had the blood of tens of thousands of people -- overwhelmingly fellow Muslims -- on his hands, but he was only the agent of a government policy that preceded him and will continue without him.... No one seems to have thought past the action itself. The initial statements from the administration have been alarmingly ludicrous.... The Soleimani crisis shows a rash and vain president for whom everything is personal; a government that follows no coherent strategy because its leadership can't provide one; and a Congress and public too irreconcilably divided to rally around a national goal. In this condition, we don't know how to think about a war with Iran, let alone win one, and it's not at all clear why we should try. For this reason, killing Soleimani was a blunder -- briefly satisfying, possibly catastrophic." ~~~

~~~ "The World Is a Much Safer Place." AP: "The U.S. men's soccer team has canceled its plan to train in Doha, Qatar, from Jan. 5-25 'due to the developing situation in the region.'"

Burgess Everett of Politico: "Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer have made zero headway on designing a bipartisan set of rules for ... Donald Trump's impeachment trial more than two weeks after their first face-to-face meeting on the matter.... In a rare Friday session, the two Senate leaders presented diametrically opposed views of how a Senate trial should go. Majority Leader McConnell (R-Ky.) continued making his case for starting a trial and considering witnesses and documents later, while Minority Leader Schumer (D-N.Y.) reiterated that Democrats are unwilling to agree on a trial's contours without a plan on whether new evidence will be introduced. The clashing viewpoints increases the possibility that McConnell seeks to build a partisan set of impeachment rules with the votes of 51 of his 53 senators." (Also linked yesterday.)

Consciousness of Guilt. Charlie Savage & Eric Lipton of the New York Times: "The Trump administration disclosed on Friday that there were 20 emails between a top aide to President Trump' acting chief of staff and a colleague at the White House's Office of Management and Budget discussing the freeze of a congressionally mandated military aid package for Ukraine. But in response to a court order that it swiftly process those pages in response to a Freedom of Information Act, or FOIA, lawsuit filed by The New York Times, the Office of Management and Budget delivered a terse letter saying it would not turn over any of the 40 pages of emails -- not even with redactions. 'All 20 documents are being withheld in full,' wrote Dionne Hardy, the office's Freedom of Information Act officer. The Times's information act request sought email messages between Robert Blair, a top aide to Mr. Trump'acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, and Michael Duffey, an official in the White House's Office of Management and Budget who was in charge of handling the process for releasing $391 million in weapons and security assistance Congress had to help Ukraine resist Russian aggression.... David McCraw, a lawyer for The Times, said the newspaper would challenge the blanket withholding of the documents and would ask the judge overseeing the lawsuit, Judge Amy Berman Jackson, to approve an expedited schedule for briefs and arguments given the urgent public interest in learning more about the dispute." ~~~

     ~~~ The Hill has a summary story here.

AP: "A federal judge on Friday allowed a Rudy Giuliani associate indicted on campaign finance charges to turn over documents to Congress as part of the impeachment proceeding against ... Donald Trump. U.S. District Court Judge Paul Oetken granted Lev Parnas' request to turn over to the House intelligence committee documents and data seized by federal investigators when Parnas was arrested in October. Parnas' attorney said in a court filing he expected to receive the materials from the U.S. Justice Department this week.... Prosecutors did not object to Parnas turning over the information."

Tal Axelrod of the Hill: "President Trump lashed out at a group of progressive lawmakers at a rally with evangelical supporters Friday, accusing the freshmen congresswomen of being anti-Semitic. 'These people hate Israel. They hate Jewish people,' Trump said at a campaign event in Miami launching his 'Evangelicals for Trump' coalition. 'I won't name them. I won't bring up the name of Omar, Tlaib, AOC. I won't bring that name up. Won't bring it up. I will not bring it up,' he added, referring to Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.)." Mrs. McC: I think the Congresswoman could successfully sue Trump for defamation, even though they are public figures.

Serial Sex Harasser Trump Hit on Fox "News" Reporter. Edward Helmore of the Guardian: "A former Fox News reporter has added her name to the list of nearly two dozen women who have accused Donald Trump of making unwanted sexual advances towards them. In a book published next week, the Fox & Friends fill-in host Courtney Friel claims Trump propositioned her before he became US president. 'You should come up to my office sometime, so we can kiss,' Friel says Trump told her, adding that he considered her 'the hottest one at Fox News'. The claims, reported by the New York Daily News, are contained in Friel's upcoming memoir.... Friel, 39, says Trump's come-on was made during a phone call to her office weeks after she mentioned an interest in working as a judge on his Miss USA beauty pageant. She says she was shocked by the proposition, which 'came out of nowhere'. '"Donald," I responded, "I believe we're both married." I quickly ended the call,' she wrote in her book. 'This proposition made it difficult for me to report with a straight face on Trump running for president. It infuriated me that he would call all the women who shared stories of his bold advances liars. I totally believe them,' she says."

Lisa Friedman of the New York Times: "Federal agencies would no longer have to take climate change into account when they assess the environmental impacts of highways, pipelines and other major infrastructure projects, according to a Trump administration plan that would weaken one of the benchmark environmental laws of the modern era. The proposed changes to the 50-year-old National Environmental Policy Act could sharply reduce obstacles to the Keystone XL oil pipeline and other fossil fuel projects that have been stymied when courts ruled that the Trump administration did not properly consider climate change when analyzing the environmental effects of the projects. The act requires the federal government to prepare detailed analyses of projects that could have significant environmental effects, including long-term impacts that courts have said include climate change.... The 50 or so pages of revisions that the Council on Environmental Quality is expected to make public on Wednesday would not amend the act itself. Rather, they would revise the rules that guide the implementation of the law."

Presidential Race

Alex Thompson of Politico: "Sen. Elizabeth Warren's presidential campaign announced Friday that it raised $21.2 million in the fourth quarter -- significantly less than progressive rival Sen. Bernie Sanders' $34.5 million haul over the same time period. Warren's fundraising total -- less than the $24.6 million she raised in the previous quarter -- is the latest sign that the grassroots energy behind her campaign has dimmed in recent months as she faced attacks from rivals and spent several weeks trying to explain her position on Medicare for All." (Also linked yesterday.)

Elena Schneider of Politico: "Sen. Amy Klobuchar raised $11.4 million in the final three months of 2019, her strongest fundraising quarter since launching her presidential campaign." (Also linked yesterday.)

Congressional Race. Rachel Frazin of the Hill: "Rep. Phil Roe (R-Tenn.) announced Friday that he will not seek reelection, making the six-term lawmaker the latest House Republican to head for the doors."

The United Divided Methodist Church. Campbell Robertson & Elisabeth Diaz of the New York Times: "A group of leaders of the United Methodist Church, the second-largest Protestant denomination in the United States, announced on Friday a plan that would formally split the church, citing 'fundamental differences' over same-sex marriage after years of division. The plan would sunder a denomination with 13 million members globally -- roughly half of them in the United States -- and create at least one new 'traditionalist Methodist' denomination that would continue to ban same-sex marriage as well as the ordination of gay and lesbian clergy."

Paul Krugman: "... Australia's summer of fire is only the latest in a string of catastrophic weather events over the past year: unprecedented flooding in the Midwest, a heat wave in India that sent temperatures to 123 degrees, another heat wave that brought unheard-of temperatures to much of Europe. And all of these catastrophes were related to climate change.... While it will take generations for the full consequences of climate change to play out, there will be many localized, temporary disasters along the way. Apocalypse will become the new normal -- and that's happening right in front of our eyes." (Also linked yesterday.)

Way Beyond the Beltway

Belarus/Russia. Radio Free Europe: "Russia has halted oil supplies to Belarus amid a disagreement over tariffs.... Belarus has been at odds with Russia over oil-transit prices for some time against a backdrop of increasing pressure by Moscow on Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka to deepen integration between the two countries.... Belarus is heavily reliant on Russia for fuel and funding and is a key transit route for Russian energy supplies to Europe. Moscow and Minsk signed an agreement in 1999 to form a unified state, but little progress has been made in the ensuing two decades.... Mike Pompeo this week postponed a planned visit to Minsk to meet with Lukashenka in what would have been the first visit by a U.S. secretary of state to that post-Soviet country in a quarter century." --s