The Commentariat -- May 8, 2015

Internal links & defunct video have been removed.

Michael White of the Guardian: "British prime minister David Cameron has confounded pollsters and pundits by winning a sensational second five-years term in office for his Conservative party. This time Cameron looks set to be free from the constraints of coalition with the centrist Liberal Democrats. His partners in office since 2010, the Lib Dems were almost wiped out, and their leader, deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, resigned on Friday morning. Cameron's victory in Thursday's general election obliterated opposition leader Ed Miliband's hopes of eking out a small win for Labour. He also resigned in the wake of the defeat." ...

... CW: While British elections may have little to do with Americans' choice, this goes to show that bad economic policy -- policy that particularly harms the voters themselves -- is a winner. (See Krugman for context.) So the Brits' decisions don't bode well for our future unless we assume that American voters are way smarter than Great Britain's ignorant jamokes. ...

... Steven Erlanger & Stephen Castle of the New York Times: "Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party was projected by a national exit poll to have done well in the British general election on Thursday, but the nation still faced the likelihood that there would be no outright winner." ...

... Dylan Byers of Politico: "Nate Silver fared terribly in Thursday's UK election: In his pre-election forecast, he gave 278 seats to Conservatives and 267 to Labour. Shortly after midnight, he was forecasting 272 seats for Conservatives and 271 for Labour. But when the sun rose in London on Friday, Conservatives had an expected 329 seats, against Labour's 233. The fault, Silver claimed, was with the polling.... [So] what is Silver's added value in an election cycle? His ability to forecast elections is largely dependent on the accuracy of polling. Without that, what is his raison d'etre -- other than to point out how bad polling caused him to make inaccurate forecasts?"

... The Guardian currently (7:40 pm ET) has parliamentary election results on its front page.

Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Obama plans to campaign for a Pacific free-trade zone on Friday by visiting the headquarters of Nike, where executives will announce that they will create 10,000 jobs in the United States if the accord is approved. Nike for years has been used as a case study by opponents of trade liberalization for its reliance on low-wage workers in Asia. But Mr. Obama hopes that the company's announcement will help him argue that a new 12-nation trade agreement could foster more manufacturing jobs at home, rather than shipping more jobs overseas." ...

... Doug Palmer of Politico: "When President Barack Obama visits Nike's headquarters in Oregon to tout trade on Friday, he'll be striding into a feud between the giant sneaker maker and its smaller East Coast rival New Balance.... New Balance, which is headquartered in Boston and has factories in Maine..., employs more than 1,350 of the few thousand workers who still make shoes in the United States, and its officials fear those jobs could be lost if tariff cuts under the deal lead to an influx of cheaper wares from Vietnam. Meanwhile, Nike is pushing to completely eliminate tariffs on shoes made in Vietnam, one of several Southeast Asian countries where it has operations. Those duties amount to hundreds of millions of dollars, the industry estimates." ...

... Greg Sargent: President "Obama's basic bet is that he can re-frame the globalization debate on his own terms. As he put it recently, the globalization horse 'has left the barn.' Thus, the best hope for American workers is to try to put in place a set of rules that creates better labor standards for workers in participating countries -- such as Vietnam -- which would help level the playing field for American workers in ways that would reverse the problems in previous trade deals." ...

... Robert Reich: "Nike isn't the solution to the problem of stagnant wages in America. Nike is the problem.... Americans made only 1 percent of the products that generated Nike's $27.8 billion revenue last year. And Nike is moving ever more of its production abroad. Last year, a third of Nike's remaining 13,922 American production workers were laid off. Most of Nike's products are made by 990,000 workers in low-wage countries whose abysmal working conditions have made Nike a symbol of global sweatshop labor.... Trade agreements like the Trans Pacific Partnership protect corporate investors but lead to even more off-shoring of American jobs." Thanks to Janice for the link. ...

... Seung Min Kim & Burgess Everett of Politico: Senate "Republicans are pressing ahead with trade votes, even though Democratic resistance could block the measures." ...

... Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "President Obama and Harry Reid are battling one another for Democratic support ahead of an important vote on trade next week. Reid ... is trying to hold his caucus together and stop Republicans from moving quickly to legislation giving Obama fast-track trade authority."

Jessica Silver-Greenberg of the New York Times: "Two of the nation’s biggest banks will finally put to rest the zombies of consumer debt -- bills that are still alive on credit reports although legally eliminated in bankruptcy -- potentially providing relief to more than a million Americans. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase have agreed to update borrowers' credit reports within the next three months to reflect that the debts were extinguished."

Charlie Savage & Jonathan Weisman of the New York Times: "A federal appeals court in New York on Thursday ruled that the once-secret National Security Agency program that is systematically collecting Americans' phone records in bulk is illegal. The decision comes as a fight in Congress is intensifying over whether to end and replace the program, or to extend it without changes. In a 97-page ruling, a three-judge panel for the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit held that a provision of the U.S.A. Patriot Act, known as Section 215, cannot be legitimately interpreted to allow the bulk collection of domestic calling records." ...

... Dan Roberts & Spencer Ackerman of the Guardian: "The judges opted not to end the domestic bulk collection while Congress decides its fate, calling judicial inaction 'a lesser intrusion' on privacy than at the time the case was initially argued." ...

... Mark Stern of Slate: "As the Second Circuit candidly admits, its decision on Thursday is entirely the result of Edward Snowden's decision to leak details of the bulk collection program two years ago. Before that leak, Americans hoping to challenge NSA surveillance were unable to establish standing -- that is, legal authority to challenge a law -- because they couldn't prove the surveillance targeted them. The documents Snowden leaked, however, proved that the NSA forced Verizon 'to produce detail records, every day, on all telephone calls made through its systems or using its services where on or both ends of the call are located in the United States.' Thanks to that leak, Verizon customers have standing to challenge that surveillance in court, since they can now be certain the government spied on their phone records." ...

... Tom Sullivan in Hullabaloo: "Just because the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals yesterday ruled the NSA's bulk collection of phone data illegal is no reason not to reauthorize it. Or so believe leading Senate Republicans.... Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid returned fire.... Not that Reid's bipartisan I Can't Believe It's Not Freedom Act would likely stop all domestic spying. Especially not since, as Dan Froomkin revealed [linked below], spy agencies have got a nifty, new gizmo for turning your phone conversations into searchable text.... As several people pointed out, you can't really re-authorize a practice that was never authorized in the first place." ...

... Dan Roberts & Sabrina Siddiqui of the Guardian: "Senate Republicans have conceded they may have to temporarily suspend plans for a long-term reauthorisation of the Patriot Act after a court ruling against its use by the National Security Agency dramatically turned around the prospects for surveillance reform in Washington.... A spokesman for [Mitch] McConnell's office insisted he continued to back the Patriot Act renewal and pointed to support for its use by judges in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (Fisa) courts that were designed to deal with such questions." ...

... digby: "Meanwhile, everyone in DC is doing high fives over the possible passage of the new revamped USA Freedom Act, which will extend certain aspects of the PATRIOT Act while reforming some pieces of it. This is a compromise bill between those who would like to see the Patriot act extended indefinitely and those who want it thrown entirely on the scrapheap of history. The president says he'll sign it. The ACLU says that it does include some reforms so it isn't all bad. The mood seems to be that this is altogether terrific.... This problem of government surveillance is not going to be solved by a congress that is both frightened and corrupt and an executive branch which has no incentive to give back any power it has accrued for itself."

... They Can Hear You Now. Dan Froomkin of the Intercept: "Top-secret documents from the archive of former NSA contractor Edward Snowden show the National Security Agency can now automatically recognize the content within phone calls by creating rough transcripts and phonetic representations that can be easily searched and stored. The documents show NSA analysts celebrating the development of what they called 'Google for Voice' nearly a decade ago. Though perfect transcription of natural conversation apparently remains the Intelligence Community's 'holy grail,' the Snowden documents describe extensive use of keyword searching as well as computer programs designed to analyze and 'extract' the content of voice conversations, and even use sophisticated algorithms to flag conversations of interest."

Jennifer Steinhauer of the New York Times: "A bill that would give Congress a voice in any nuclear agreement between world powers and Iran passed the Senate overwhelmingly on Thursday afternoon. The measure, which was approved 98 to 1, withstood months of tense negotiations, White House resistance, the indictment of one of its sponsors and a massive partisan kerfuffle over a speech to Congress by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just as an accord was coming together. The lone vote against the bill was cast by Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas. The House is expected to take up the Senate measure as early as next week." ...

... Greg Sargent: "One hundred and fifty House Democrats have now signed a letter expressing strong support for President Obama's ongoing negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, I've learned, improving the chances that an eventual nuclear deal could survive the Congressional oversight process.... If a deal is reached that looks like the recently-announced framework, and the GOP-controlled Congress votes to disapprove of it, it's now more likely that there will be enough House Democrats to sustain Obama's veto of that disapproval legislation, allowing the deal to move forward." ...

... Lauren French & Jake Sherman of Politico: "Picking up where Sens. Tom Cotton and Marco Rubio left off, House conservatives plan to press House GOP leaders to allow a series of hard-to-oppose amendments to the Iran nuclear review bill. The move by the conservative House Freedom Caucus could put Speaker John Boehner in a bind. He'll have to decide whether to clamp down on attempts to change the bill as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) did in the Senate, angering his right flank -- or to allow votes on their amendments at the risk of tanking the legislation authored by Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.)."

Adam Goldman of the Washington Post: "FBI Director James B. Comey said Thursday his agents learned hours before the start of a cartoon contest and exhibit depicting the prophet Muhammad that one of the gunmen had expressed interest in going to the controversial event in Texas, but there was no indication he was planning an attack. Comey said the FBI sent an intelligence bulletin to local authorities through its Dallas field office that included a picture of Elton Simpson, 30, and other details such as his associates and possible license plate numbers."

Thomas Edsall of the New York Times: "Insofar as conservatives identify the erosion of the traditional family as a cause of civic disorder, the erosion is not limited to minority communities in Democratic cities. These trends are increasingly characteristic of white communities in red states.... The high pregnancy and birthrates among white teenagers in states where the Christian right and Tea Party forces are strong reflect the inability of ideological doctrines stressing social conservatism to halt the gradual shift away from traditional family structures.... While right wing commentators are demonizing the social and cultural values of the distressed citizens of Baltimore and their political leaders, they are oblivious to the vulnerability of their traditional moral agenda during a time of inexorable demographic change. The problems of majority black Baltimore are extreme, but many of the trends found there are as extreme or more so in majority white Muskogee [County, Oklahoma].... If conservatives place responsibility on liberal Democrats, feminism and the abandonment of traditional family values for Baltimore's decay, what role did the 249 churches in and around Muskogee play in that city's troubles?" [Emphasis added.] ...

... CW: Nonetheless, this analysis has an odor of putting the cart before the horse. Middle-class & wealthy young people also commonly rear children in non-traditional families, but because they have the means to do so, most people don't find their personal decisions problematic. The cause of both Muskogee's & Baltimore's difficulties is poverty, not "lifestyle" choices. ...

... YEAHBUT. No need to worry about poor people. Jessica Roy of New York: "America's Richest Congressman [-- Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) --] Thinks America's Poorest People Are the 'Envy of the World.'" CW: Lucky duckies. ...

... AND, coincidentally, Tamar Lewin of the New York Times helps make my point: "The share of highly educated women who are childless into their mid-40s has fallen significantly over the last two decades.... While finding the right balance of work and family may not be easy, [demographers] say, it has become an everyday challenge, rather than an unusual strain." Lewin's story focuses on these women's interest in "family." She never mentions whether or not "family" includes a husband or wife. Because these women can afford to rear children, their family decisions are personal, not a reflection of "a breakdown of society."

Presidential Race

Jeremy Peters of the New York Times: "The Republican candidates for president lined up on different sides of the debate over whether the nation's intelligence agencies should be allowed to collect data about Americans after a court ruled Thursday that the National Security Agency had acted outside the law. The divisions among the candidates reflected the larger debate inside the Republican Party about reauthorizing the Patriot Act, which will expire in June unless Congress votes to extend it. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky ... cheered the decision.... Coming down on the opposite side of the issue was Senator Marco Rubio.... Senator Ted Cruz of Texas took the middle ground." CW: This must be the first time in history you have read a sentence like that last one, & likely you will never read it in any other context.

** Tim Egan: "Last election cycle, the Republican presidential field was a clown car, holding the thrice-married Newt Gingrich lecturing about values, the pizza magnate Herman Cain fending off sexual harassment claims, and Michele Bachmann confusing John Wayne with a serial killer. That was just the front seat. This time around it's a clown bus, with as many as 17 Republicans expected to compete for the nomination.... For many Republicans, crazy is the new mainstream."

Sara Murray of CNN: "Jeb Bush cited his brother, former President George W. Bush, as one of his main advisers on the Middle East in a private meeting in Manhattan on Tuesday, according to three people who attended the off-the-record event. The comment came as a shock to some who were in the room because Jeb ... has taken pains to publicly distance himself from his brother and his controversial policies, particularly in that area of the world."

Katie Glueck of Politico: "Lindsey Graham is telling donors that June 1 is the likely date for his presidential announcement, according to several sources familiar with the conversations." CW: Be still, my beating heart.

David Sirota, in Salon, sees a new Chris Christie scandal looming on the horizon, one involving hundreds of millions of dollars in high fees New Jersey is paying to increasingly underperforming Wall Street "pension managers," who just so happen to be donors to Christie's campaigns. Apparently the state has to slash pensions so Christie's friends can make higher profits "managing" them. And, oh yeah, Christie just vetoed a bipartisan bill that would have made the payment of pension management fees more transparent.

Sahil Kapur of Bloomberg: "A group of two dozen young activists working out of homes and coffee shops around the country has achieved something rather unusual: mainlining an idea into the upper echelons of the Democratic Party -- including its top presidential contenders -- in just four months. The phrase 'debt-free college' was hardly present in the national political lexicon until the Progressive Change Campaign Committee launched a campaign in January to push Democrats to support the idea of federal assistance to help Americans graduate from college without debt."

Beyond the Beltway

Sari Horwitz of the Washington Post: "Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch has decided to launch a federal investigation into whether the Baltimore Police Department has engaged in a 'pattern or practice' of excessive force. Lynch's announcement about the Justice Department's probe -- the latest in a string of municipalities that are being investigated by the federal government for civil rights violations -- could come as early as Friday, according to two law enforcement officials."

Maura Dolan of the Los Angeles Times: "Prosecutors here are expanding an investigation into criminal cases that might have been compromised by revelations of police officers' racist and homophobic texts, Dist. Atty. George Gascon announced Thursday. Gascon's probe has identified 3,000 criminal cases that could have been affected by perceived bias by 14 officers. Investigators will comb through each case to determine whether some convictions must be overturned or pending cases dismissed."

Max Blau of the Guardian: "North Carolina currently has 149 people on death row, but carried out its last execution in August 2006. Since then, North Carolina doctors have refused to work with the state's corrections department to carry out executions even though the death penalty remains legal. Under a proposed law, conservative state lawmakers are hoping to break through that stalemate by letting physician assistants, nurses, emergency medical technicians, and other healthcare workers oversee executions.... [The] measure that would no longer require doctors to be present during executions."

News Lede

Bloomberg: "Payrolls rebounded in April following an even bigger setback a month earlier than previously estimated, a sign companies are confident the U.S. economy will reboot after stagnating early this year. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.4 percent. The 223,000 net increase in employment followed an 85,000 gain in March that was the smallest since June 2012."

The Commentariat -- May 7, 2015

All internal links removed.

** New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a New York Times op-ed on why a raise for fast-food workers in good for them & good for the economy.

"The Worst Ex-Chairman Ever." Paul Krugman: "... as the Fed holds its annual meeting in Jackson Hole, [Alan] Greenspan will address a counter-conference organized by a group called the American Principles Project. The group combines social conservatism -- it's anti-gay-marriage, anti-abortion rights, and pro-'religious liberty' -- with goldbug economic doctrine." ...

... MEANWHILE, Mrs. Worst Ex-Chair Ever is dawging Mrs. Ex-Big Dawg: Hadas Gold of Politico: Andrea Mitchell is "one of the most senior reporters covering the [presidential] race, and one of the most aggressive, calling [Hillary] Clinton out, chasing her down, asking her questions -- and occasionally getting a roundabout answer. Some sources suggest she's getting under the Clinton camp's skin, a rope-line irritant constantly shouting after the former secretary of state to answer questions."

Dreamers Deferred. Kristina Wong of the Hill: "The Army has already allowed almost 50 illegal immigrants to enlist as members of Congress debate whether to allow them to seek citizenship through military service." The program is designed to allow "highly-skilled legal immigrants to enlist in the military as a fast-track to citizenship.... The program, called Military Accessions Vital to the National Interest (MAVNI), was meant to recruit people with medical training or who speak a critical language, such as Mandarin, Urdu or Arabic." Some Congressional Democrats want to expand the program to accept less specialized recruits "in the interest of national security," but Republicans oppose the expansion.

Bryan Bender of Politico: "An audit by the Department of Defense Office of Inspector General, which is to be made public in coming weeks, found that both civilian and military employees [of the Pentagon] used [government] credit cards at casinos and for escort services and other adult activities -- in Las Vegas and Atlantic City. A Pentagon official briefed on some of the findings stressed that the federal government did not necessarily pay the charges; holders of the cards pay their own bills and then submit receipts to be reimbursed for expenses related to their government business."

Burgess Everett of Politico: "President Barack Obama hosted a group of Senate Democrats at the White House on Wednesday, hoping to shore up support for his free-trade efforts before a critical vote next week." ...

... Ben White of Politico: "So far in her battle against President Barack Obama's trade agenda, Sen. Elizabeth Warren has raised the specter of shady international courts invalidating U.S. laws and a cabal of business interests writing trade agreements in secret, smoky rooms. Now she has a new complaint: If Congress gives Obama what he wants on fast-track trade authority..., some future Republican president could use that power to gut the Dodd-Frank financial reform law.... White House, Congress and the business community [say ... Warren's arguments ... are increasingly wide of the mark and easily rebutted.... Obama has already called Warren 'wrong' on trade. But in private, administration officials fume in much more colorful terms over Warren's attacks, calling them 'baseless' and 'desperate,' with 'no bearing or relation to anything we are doing.'" ...

... Robert Reich, a former secretary of labor, characterizes the TPP as trickle-down economics gone wild. Thanks to Janice for the link. CW: I have a lot of respect for Reich, so his short post has moved me from high-octane skeptic to non-believer. Sorry, Mr. President. This is one I hope you can't deliver for your big business buddies.

Timothy Cama of the Hill: "Iran is wooing American oil companies in anticipation of a time when Western interests can take advantage of the Middle Eastern nation's vast crude reserves. A delegation of U.S. oil company leaders and investors heads to Tehran this week to discuss opportunities to operate there if the U.S. lifts sanctions on Iran this summer as part of a deal to restrict its nuclear capabilities, Iran's state media reported."

Peter Sullivan of the Hill: "Around 17 million people have gained health insurance since the core of ObamaCare took effect in 2013, according to a RAND Corporation study released Wednesday.... While there was much concern about plans being cancelled because of ObamaCare, the study notes that the number of people losing coverage was close to the same level it was before ObamaCare. 'We found that the vast majority of those with individual market insurance in 2013 remained insured in 2015, which suggests that even among those who had their individual market policies canceled, most found coverage through an alternative source,' the study states."

Dylan Matthews of Vox: "... for all [Paul] Ryan's rhetoric on poverty, he's also the author of a series of budgets that would absolutely wreck programs for the American poor, inflicting massive human suffering on the nation's most vulnerable residents.... His appearance on Face the Nation suggests he's going to try to make his poverty programs work with his budgets, which is to say he's going to argue that taking trillions away from the poor is somehow actually good for them."

Leader McClueless & Speaker J. B. O'Blivious.... Hannah Hess of Roll Call: "House Speaker John A. Boehner, R-Ohio, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., might never have known their bodyguards left guns in the bathroom without CQ Roll Call's report, which has launched a Capitol Police investigation into the source of the leak. Spokesmen for the two GOP leaders on Tuesday made their first comments on the security lapses that were revealed May 1...."

Sasha Goldstein & Jason Silverstein of the New York Daily News: "ISIS appears to declare war on controversial blogger Pamela Geller on Tuesday in an ominous online message claiming it has fighters across America ready to attack 'any target we desire.' The threat, posted on anonymous message board JustPasteIt, singles out Geller, who helped plan a Prophet Muhammad cartoon contest that was attacked by two gunmen in Garland, Texas, over the weekend." ...

.. New York Times Editors: "There is no question that images ridiculing religion, however offensive they may be to believers, qualify as protected free speech in the United States and most Western democracies.... But it is equally clear that the Muhammad Art Exhibit and Contest in Garland, Tex., was not really about free speech. It was an exercise in bigotry and hatred posing as a blow for freedom." ...

... Erik Wemple of the Washington Post, in criticizing Greta Van Susteren for scolding Pam Geller, doesn't seem to get the Times' distinction.CW: Yes, police have a duty to protect protesters, but protesters have a civic duty to make their case without resorting -- in the main -- to incendiary techniques, especially when those techniques are aimed at minority groups. A "protest" organized around hate speech is not exactly a "peaceful protest" nor is it a noble expression of a First Amendment right. I'm not sure why so many people have trouble grasping this fairly evident principle. I make fun of fundamentalist Christian beliefs all the time, but I do so mainly because those beliefs have taken hold of a powerful political party & are being employed to trample the rights of others & to dismantle an orderly, secular society. I don't think fantastical Muslim beliefs -- including restrictions on depictions of people in sacred art -- are any more defensible than Christian mythologies, but what is the point of showing disrespect for religious beliefs that don't affect the rest of society?

... Scott Shane & Fernanda Santos of the New York Times on the FBI's 2009 case against Elton Simpson, who attacked the Geller hate event. ...

... Now add that costly, bungled effort to this story. Scott Shane: "Elton Simpson, in the weeks before the attack. Mr. Simpson, a convert to Islam with a long history of extremism, regularly traded calls for violence on Twitter with Islamic State fighters and supporters, as well as avowed enemies of Pamela Geller, the organizer of the cartoon contest.... Several months ago, after Mr. Simpson began posting on Twitter about the Islamic State, the F.B.I. and the police in Phoenix opened a new investigation, officials said. As part of that inquiry, the authorities monitored his online postings and occasionally put him under surveillance.... Yet with dozens, or perhaps hundreds, of people across the United States expressing online sympathy for the Islamic State, authorities are unable to keep them all under physical surveillance or track them online." ...

... Now, add this. Holly Yan of CNN: "A ... law enforcement source said the two long guns and four handguns found in their car were bought legally." CW: Since Yan uses the passive voice, we don't know if Simpson or his accomplice Nadir Soofi or someone else bought the firearms. ...

... CW: As long as we glorify the Second Amendment & encourage people of all stripes to obtain firearms, murderous attacks are going to happen. The attack against the hate "cartoonists" is as much about American violence as it is about Middle Eastern violence. ...

... Of course Republicans think the answer to terrorist attacks such as this one is more surveillance. CW: I'm finding it a little difficult to see the freeedom in this approach. But, hey, I'll go along with this so long as Republicans promote the surveillance of all the whackos who own guns. One problem: since, according to Shane, it takes up to 25 agents to surveil a single suspect, "perfect" surveillance would be mathematically impossible.

Presidential Race

Charles Pierce thinks Hillary Clinton has her progressive act together. & all that "appearance of impropriety" handwringing is evidence that her detractors have got nothing. ...

... Apparently voters agree. Jonathan Martin & Megan Thee-Brenan of the New York Times: "Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to have initially weathered a barrage of news about her use of a private email account when she was secretary of state and the practices of her family's foundation, an indication that she is starting her second presidential bid with an unusual durability among Democratic voters. Americans now view Mrs. Clinton more favorably and more see her as a strong leader than they did earlier in the year, despite weeks of scrutiny about her ethics, a New York Times/CBS News poll has found. And nearly nine in 10 Democrats say the nation is ready to elect a woman president." ...

... Maggie Haberman & Nicholas Confessore of the New York Times: "Hillary Rodham Clinton will begin personally courting donors for a 'super PAC' supporting her candidacy, the first time a Democratic presidential candidate has fully embraced these independent groups that can accept unlimited checks from big donors and are already playing a major role in the 2016 race. Her decision is another escalation in what is expected to be the most expensive presidential race in history, and it has the potential to transform the balance of power in presidential campaigning, where Republican outside groups have tended to outspend their Democratic counterparts." ...

... Jeremy Diamond of CNN: "President Bill Clinton on Wednesday conceded that over-incarceration in the United States stems in part from policies passed under his administration. Clinton signed into law an omnibus crime bill in 1994 that included the federal 'three strikes' provision, mandating life sentences for criminals convicted of a violent felony after two or more prior convictions, including drug crimes.... 'The problem is the way it was written and implemented is we cast too wide a net and we had too many people in prison,' Clinton said Wednesday.... [Last week] Hillary Clinton delivered one of the first policy addressees of her presidential campaign on criminal justice reform, saying that the system focuses too much on incarceration." ...

... ** Rebecca Traister of the New Republic: "The best thing Hillary could do for her campaign? Ditch Bill."

Matea Gold & Robert Costa of the Washington Post: Jeb Bush & his strategists believe he will "peak late," letting others enjoy being "the presidents of August.... Bush, who has already stockpiled record sums, intends to hold back from officially declaring his bid for at least another month, according to people familiar with the plan. The strategy is being driven by a confident, tightly knit group of Bush advisers who are focused on amassing as much money as possible for his allied super PAC on the theory that a considerable cash advantage will enable Bush to outlast his competitors." ...

... Nick Gass of Politico: Scott Walker "retains his advantage among Iowa Republican caucus-goers, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, with 21 percent of likely participants saying they would vote for him if the caucus were held today.... [Jeb] Bush ... comes in seventh -- with just 5 percent responding that they would vote for him. Only 39 percent said they viewed him favorably, compared with 45 percent who said they did not."

However. Jonathan Easley of the Hill: "Nationally, Walker's support peaked at 17.3 percent on April 1 and dropped to 12.3 percent on Wednesday, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. He's been overtaken by two candidates seeking to appeal to establishment-minded Republicans. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush now leads the field at 15.5 percent support, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 14.3 percent."

"It's Still Good!" Steve Benen writes a funny post on Chris Christie's presidential chances, likening them to a "Simpsons" episode in which Homer & Bart go on a wild barbecue chase. ...

... Marianne Levine of Politico: "The expectation within the legal community is that Christie will lose" a legal case challenging his self-proclaimed "biggest governmental victory": "reforming" New Jersey's state pension plan. CW: But "It's still good!"

Jonathan Easley: "Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) said Wednesday he’ll make a 'big announcement' regarding his 2016 presidential campaign plans May 27 in Pittsburgh." CW: I guess he's looking for another gig on Fox "News." Because he sure as hell isn't going to be the POTUS.

Alex Isenstadt of Politico: "Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder will not run for president in 2016, according to two sources familiar with his planning. Snyder, a Republican who was first elected in 2010, has been traveling across the country in recent weeks but has decided against a White House bid."

Gail Collins: "People who run for president boasting that they aren't politicians are frequently just trying to compensate for a lack of political skill. [Ben] Carson (who presumably wants to run government like an operating room) is going to appeal to the folks who think the military is plotting to take over Texas, but otherwise, his only political gift seems to be for making outrageous statements. [Carly] Fiorina ran for the Senate in 2010 and was beaten by Barbara Boxer, who was thought to be a vulnerable incumbent until Fiorina got hold of her, racking up a grand total of 42 percent of the vote." ...

... Andy Borowitz: "One day after the former Hewlett-Packard C.E.O. Carly Fiorina announced her candidacy for the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination, a new poll shows that she enjoys extremely high name recognition among the tens of thousands of former H.P. employees she fired."

AND Ben Carson turns out to be a brilliant Constitutooshunal scholar. Daniel Strauss of TPM: "... Ben Carson said in an interview with Newsmax that the President of the United States doesn't have to follow the Supreme Court if the high court were to rule in favor of same-sex marriage. 'First of all, we have to understand how the Constitution works. The president is required to carry out the laws of the land, the laws of the land come from the legislative branch,' Carson said on Tuesday. 'So if the legislative branch creates a law or changes a law, the executive branch has a responsibly to carry it out. It doesn't say they have the responsibility to carry out a judicial law. And that's something we need to talk about.'" CW: Apparently Dr. Ben skipped class the day the teacher explained the significance of Marbury v. Madison & the principle of judicial review (which predates Marbury). But, hey, what's 200-plus years of established law when one can don a tricorn & pretend he's living in the 18th-century? ...

... PLUS, Mike Huckabee is still a Tenther. A tricorn for that man, too! And a musket!

Beyond the Beltway

Joseph Serna, et al., of the Los Angeles Times: "An aide to California Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris and two others [are] accused of operating a rogue police force.... Los Angeles County prosecutors said the whole effort was a ruse, though for what purpose remains unclear. The investigation is continuing."

Dana Hedgpeth of the Washington Post: "Baltimore's Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake said Wednesday that she plans to put in place police body cameras by the end of the year and to have the Justice Department review whether the city's police department has a pattern of excessive force..... Also Wednesday, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan lifted Baltimore's state of emergency, which was imposed April 27 after violence erupted...." The New York Times story, by Stephen Babcock & Richard Perez-Pena, is here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Fenit Nirappil of the AP: "California water regulators adopted sweeping, unprecedented restrictions Tuesday on how people, governments and businesses can use water amid the state's ongoing drought, hoping to push reluctant residents to deeper conservation." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Way Beyond

Jodi Rudoren of the New York Times: "Facing a midnight deadline to form a government or step aside, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel was under intense pressure on Wednesday from the conservative Jewish Home party over powerful ministerial posts and contentious policy positions. Mr. Netanyahu, who exulted in what looked like a strong mandate for a fourth term after the March 17 elections, instead was scrambling to form a coalition with the slimmest possible majority in Parliament. Many analysts said such a coalition would be able to do little and would be unlikely to last long." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... New Lede: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel barely met the legal deadline to form a new government on Wednesday night, and will start his fourth term with the slimmest of parliamentary majorities, made up of right-leaning and religious parties."

News Ledes

NBC Connecticut: "A suspended Connecticut Roman Catholic priest who authorities say dealt pounds of methamphetamine and bought a sex shop intending to launder his drug money will spend another three years in prison after being sentenced on Thursday. Around 75 people were in court on Thursday to support Monsignor Kevin Wallin, 63, dubbed 'Monsignor Meth' in some media reports, and the judge called it an 'unprecedented' turnout for a drug trafficking sentencing."

Guardian: "Twelve years and nine months after he was captured at the age of 15 by US troops in Afghanistan and taken to Guantánamo Bay, Omar Khadr -- now 28 -- has walked out of jail. A judge rebuffed the conservative Canadian government's attempt to block bail for Khadr, the youngest person ever held by the US at Guantánamo, who was transferred to his home country in 2012.... Yet Khadr's legal ordeal is far from over. The government has given notice that it intends to challenge the bail order itself, while Khadr appeals his conviction in a US military tribunal for the murder of an army special forces medic, Sgt First Class Christopher Speer. Khadr will also go before a parole board on 25 June."

It's election day in Great Britain. The Guardian is liveblogging results & other developments. ...

     ... Update: Here's the Guardian's new liveblog of the results.

The Commentariat -- May 6, 2015

All internal links removed.

Afternoon News

Dana Hedgpeth of the Washington Post: "Baltimore's Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake said Wednesday that she plans to put in place police body cameras by the end of the year and to have the Justice Department review whether the city's police department has a pattern of excessive force..... Also Wednesday, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan lifted Baltimore's state of emergency, which was imposed April 27 after violence erupted...." The New York Times story, by Stephen Babcock & Richard Perez-Pena, is here.

Fenit Nirappil of the AP: "California water regulators adopted sweeping, unprecedented restrictions Tuesday on how people, governments and businesses can use water amid the state's ongoing drought, hoping to push reluctant residents to deeper conservation."

Jodi Rudoren of the New York Times: "Facing a midnight deadline to form a government or step aside, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel was under intense pressure on Wednesday from the conservative Jewish Home party over powerful ministerial posts and contentious policy positions. Mr. Netanyahu, who exulted in what looked like a strong mandate for a fourth term after the March 17 elections, instead was scrambling to form a coalition with the slimmest possible majority in Parliament. Many analysts said such a coalition would be able to do little and would be unlikely to last long."

*****

Dear Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, David Brooks & Other Ignorant Charlatans. Arloc Sherman & Danilo Trisi of the Center on Budget & Policy Priorities: "Previous analysis of Census data showed that safety net programs cut the poverty rate nearly in half. Recently released data from the Urban Institute, which correct for underreporting of key government benefits in the Census survey, reveal an even stronger impact: the safety net reduced the poverty rate from 29.1 percent to 13.8 percent in 2012 and lifted 48 million people above the poverty line, including 12 million children.... Correcting for underreporting reveals that the safety net also did more to reduce deep poverty than previously shown, although 11.2 million Americans remained below half the poverty line." Via Greg Sargent. ...

After a 50-year war on poverty and trillions of dollars spent, we still have the same poverty rates -- 45 million people in poverty. -- Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), on "Face the Nation," May 3

... it seems odd to rely on a measure that does not include some of the most effective anti-poverty programs around, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit. (In fact, Ryan has called for expanding the EITC.)... It's a bit slick for Ryan to suggest the war on poverty has been a failure while touting an improvement in an anti-poverty program that is not captured in the statistic he cites. -- Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post

Elizabeth Kolbert of the New Yorker: Republicans carry their "I am not a scientist" meme into the budget, gutting NASA's earth science bill (which includes climate change research), the National Science Foundation's geoscience budget & the Department of Energy's energy research program. "The 'I'm not a scientist' line is basically a declaration of willed ignorance. You might think people entrusted by voters to craft public policy would be embarrassed to acknowledge ... that they have no idea what they're talking about, and don't want to."...

... Michael Hiltzik of the Los Angeles Times (May 1): "Living down to our worst expectations, the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology voted Thursday to cut deeply into NASA's budget for Earth science, in a clear swipe at the study of climate change."

Sari Horwitz & Adam Goldman of the Washington Post: "The heavily armed gunmen who attacked a cartoon contest near Dallas over the weekend were probably inspired by the Islamic State, according to U.S. officials, who cautioned that they have so far seen no indication that the assailants were directed by the group."

Brendan James of TPM: "Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is not a linguist. 'Everything that starts with "Al" in the Middle East is bad news,' Graham said at a dinner in Boston on Monday with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, according to investigative journalist Uri Blau. Graham was referencing the Arabic word for 'the.'" ...

... The It-Was-a-Joke Excuse. Elahe Izadi of the Washington Post: "Graham spokesman Kevin Bishop ... said the al-being-bad-news line is a joke that's part of Graham's regular stump speech -- and one that he's told for many years."

Your Louie Gohmert News. Catherine Thompson of TPM: "Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) on Tuesday demanded that the U.S. military alter a planned training exercise that some conspiracy theorists believe is cover for a possible takeover of the Lone Star state. Gohmert said in a statement that he understands Texans' concerns that the exercise, dubbed 'Jade Helm 15,' may be a precursor for martial law. He directed his criticism specifically at what has been reported to be a map of the training exercise, which labels Texas, among other states, as 'hostile' territory." See today's Beyond the Beltway section for more crazy.

Presidential Race

Ed Kilgore: Palin-style victimization, self-pity & resentment have become widespread GOP tactics. "For a while there, she could do no wrong, since every misstep turned into an opportunity for a fresh grievance against the mockery of snooty elitists.... To a dangerous extent the whole party has absorbed some of the poison." Palin's best student: Mike Huckabee. ...

... Trip Gabriel of the New York Times: "Mike Huckabee, who excited evangelical voters in his first presidential race in 2008 and retains much of their good will, announced on Tuesday that he will again seek the Republican nomination, despite a crowded field of rivals for his natural base in the party." ...

... Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post: Huckabee's "biggest challenge will be trying to break through in a GOP field that is likely to include a dozen or more credible, well-financed contenders. Among them are some young, fresh faces, including Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Ted Cruz (Tex.) and Rand Paul (Ky.)." ...

... For that reason, Dana Milbank says that Huckabee doesn't have a chance. CW: Nobody except Huck thinks he does, but if he is allowed to debate, his relatively populist message should skewer other GOP candidates. ...

... As Maggie Haberman writes in today's New York Times, "... [Huckabee's] stark language [supporting Social Security & Medicare] signals that the issue could become a politically delicate flash point at coming Republican debates, putting his opponents on the defensive on a bread-and-butter issue." ...

... Roger Simon of Politico says Mike Huckabee has gone from Mr. Nice Guy (2008) to a guy "who will eat nails and spit out tacks." Also, too, Simon notes that Huckabee's poor-mouthing is a tad hypocritical: "He did not mention, however, a New York Times story from last month that revealed that a well-known Iowa political operative had formed a Huckabee super PAC 'with the ability to raise unlimited donations to support the former Arkansas governor.'” So maybe we don't have to worry, a la Milbank & Tumulty, that Poor Huck will come up short. ...

... Which candidates will be invited to the debate is up in the air, as the Republican National Committee, Fox "News" & CNN are all trying to figure out a seating arrangement & the length of the first debates, according to Zeke Miller of Time. ...

... Elena Schneider of Politico: "The Democratic National Committee announced Tuesday that they will sanction six presidential debates beginning this fall, giving Hillary Clinton's challengers a limited number of chances to confront the former secretary of state on the debate stage." ...

... Amy Chozick of the New York Times: "At a campaign event [in Las Vegas, Nevada], Mrs. Clinton, surrounded by children whose parents faced deportation, called for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.... She also sharply criticized Republican presidential candidates who favor granting legal status for some undocumented immigrants, but oppose citizenship. 'When they talk about "legal status," that is code for "second-class status,"' Mrs. Clinton said." ...

... Slick Willie. Amy Davidson of the New Yorker: "How much money does Bill Clinton need?" Davidson has some suggestions on how Bill should reduce his ethical lapses. CW: My guess is that he won't follow Davidson's prescription.

Congressional Election

Alexander Burns of the New York Times: "The Staten Island district attorney, Daniel M. Donovan Jr., whose office investigated the chokehold death of Eric Garner in a struggle with the police last year, easily won a special election for the House of Representatives on Tuesday, according to unofficial results."

Beyond the Beltway

Jon Swaine & Oliver Laughland of the Guardian: "The Baltimore police lieutenant charged with the manslaughter of Freddie Gray allegedly threatened to kill himself and the husband of his former partner, during incidents that led to him being disciplined and twice having his guns confiscated. Brian Rice, who pursued and arrested Gray after the 25-year-old 'caught his eye' on 12 April, was reportedly given an administrative suspension after being hospitalised for a mental health evaluation when he warned he was preparing to shoot himself in April 2012." ...

... Juliet Linderman of the AP: "One of the Baltimore police officers who arrested Freddie Gray wants the police department and prosecutor to produce a knife that was the reason for the arrest, saying in court papers that it is an illegal weapon. The city's top prosecutor, Marilyn Mosby, said Friday in charging the officer and five others that the knife was legal under Maryland law, meaning they had arrested Gray illegally. The motion was filed Monday by attorneys for Officer Edward Nero in Baltimore District Court."

Catherine Thompson of TPM runs down the set of conspiracy theories swirling around what is a routine military exercise. CW: Liberals really must stop arguing that confederates are stuck in the mud because they lack imagination. ...

By Jan Sorensen for Daily Kos.... Jan Sorensen: "Fears are so widespread that Wal-Mart literally just issued a statement denying involvement in a U.S. military invasion of Texas."

Kate Irby of the Bradenton (Florida) Herald: "After only 15 minutes of deliberation, a jury Monday found a couple guilty of having sex on Bradenton Beach. The convictions carry maximum prison sentences of 15 years." Prosecutors are seeking the maximum penalty against Jose Caballero because he "spent almost eight years in prison for a cocaine-trafficking conviction.... Caballero and [Elissa] Alvarez will now have to register as sex offenders." The defense attorney "said the judge would have no discretion" to reduce the sentence. ...

... CW: Okay, it's in bad taste to have sex in a public place, but 15 years? That's not only a stupid waste of taxpayer money, it's far more morally reprehensible than the crime itself. In addition, I'll bet most people have been "guilty" of this particular crime. Why, here's a list of 15 celebrities who reportedly had sex in various public places. Somehow, they managed to avoid jail time.

Way Beyond

A Tar Sands Eruption. Ian Austen of the New York Times: "With an economy dominated by the oil industry and a conservative, free-market political tradition, Alberta has long been cast as the Texas of Canada. But on Tuesday night, not only did the province's voters put the Progressive Conservative Party out of power after 43 years, they elected a government from the far left of Canada's mainstream political spectrum.... The defeat of the Conservatives followed a budget crisis brought on by declining oil prices. Six months ago, the party brought in Jim Prentice, a former member of [Prime Minister Stephen] Harper's federal cabinet, to replace a leader who had been accused of profligate personal spending."

Griff Witte of the Washington Post: "... in the final days of an unexpectedly tight contest with Labor Party leader Ed Miliband, [Britain's Prime Minister David] Cameron has been letting it rip.... Polls suggest the Tories are likely to win more seats than Labor but may not have the support needed from smaller parties to form a government in a year when the British electorate has fractured as never before." ...

... Alex Massie & Rebecca Hendin in Politico Magazine: "On Thursday, British voters will go to the polls to elect a new prime minister. Most Americans don't have a clue that a British election is underway, much less who the candidates are or what they represent. Thankfully, illustrator Rebecca Hendin, an American living in Britain, and Alex Massie, a British writer, have created a handy guide to the current crop of British candidates, translating the British election into convenient American terms." CW: Yes indeedy, cartoons are the appropriate means to explain things to us ignorant Americans. Thanks, Politico!

News Ledes

New York Times: "Jim Wright, a driven Texas Democrat who rose to the pinnacle of congressional power before ethics charges forced his resignation as speaker of the House in 1989, died on Wednesday in Fort Worth. He was 92." Wright's Washington Post obituary is here.

Reuters: "The return of passenger ferry services between the United States and Cuba took a major step forward on Tuesday when the Treasury Department issued licenses to at least two U.S. companies."

Guardian: "The Germanwings co-pilot who deliberately crashed a plane in the French Alps in March, killing all 150 people on board, put the aircraft into a descent on the previous flight, according to the German newspaper Bild."