The Commentariat -- February 4, 2020

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

John Wagner of the Washington Post: "Debate over President Trump's removal from office resumed in the Senate on Tuesday morning as Trump prepared to deliver a State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in the House chamber, where he was impeached in December. The historic trial is expected to wrap up Wednesday with an acquittal in the Republican-led Senate. The theme of Trump's speech Tuesday night will be 'the Great American Comeback,' a signal that he is eager to move forward after the impeachment proceedings." ~~~

~~~ Brian Stelter of CNN: "... Donald Trump's targeting of CNN is moving to yet another arena: The annual presidential lunch with television network anchors. CNN anchors are being excluded from Tuesday's lunch, three sources said on Monday night. Trump, like presidents before him, typically invites anchors from all the major networks to dine with him at the White House in advance of his State of the Union address. The lunch conversation is considered off the record, but it gives the anchors a sense of the president's state of mind before they anchor SOTU coverage. 'Despite Trump's persistent attacks on the news media, he's kept up such traditions,' Politico pointed out last year. CNN's Anderson Cooper and Wolf Blitzer attended last year's lunch. Blitzer has been attending these lunches longer than almost any other anchor -- 20 years in a row. Journalists from other networks are still planning on attending Tuesday's session, according to sources at those networks."

Ryan Devereaux of the Intercept: "A federal judge in Tucson, Arizona, reversed the conviction of four humanitarian aid volunteers on religious freedom grounds Monday, ruling that the government had embraced a 'gruesome logic' that criminalizes 'interfering with a border enforcement strategy of deterrence by death.' The reversal, written by U.S. district judge Rosemary Márquez, marked the latest rebuke of the Trump administration's crackdown on humanitarian aid providers in southern Arizona, and the second time in matter of months that a religious freedom defense has prevailed in a federal case involving the provision of aid to migrants in the borderlands." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: While this & a like decision in an earlier case are good news, it troubles me that the cases were decided on religious grounds. When my parents lived near Las Cruces, New Mexico, my father gave water & food to every migrant who happened by, and my father was not a religious person. I have no idea whether or not my father broke any laws on the books, but I know he followed the moral law. One should not have to demonstrate a religious affiliation or purpose to justify a simple act of decency.

More below as the Iowa fiasco continues into the late morning afternoon. ~~~

~~~ OR NOT ~~~

Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post has this right: "... the most important tally of the night has been reported, and it should worry Democrats. Even as the Iowa Democratic Party was trying to sort out the chaos in its reporting system, a party official announced that turnout was 'on pace' with what they had seen in 2016. In other words, it was mediocre. About 170,000 people participated in the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucuses, far short of the unprecedented 240,000 voters who turned out in 2008 and launched Barack Obama on his way to the White House. What was so exciting a dozen years ago was not only how many Iowans showed up, but who they were: young people, first-time caucusgoers, an ethnically diverse mix of voters in an overwhelmingly white state."

Nate Silver of 538 explains why Iowa "might have screwed up the whole nomination process[:]... The lead story around the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses is now -- and will forever be -- the colossal shitshow around the failure to release results in a timely fashion. Maybe there will eventually be a decent-sized Iowa bounce despite all of this. But there's a good chance that the candidates who did well Iowa get screwed, and the candidates who did poorly there get a mulligan.... There's very little importance in a mathematical sense to who wins 41 delegates. Iowa is all about the media narrative it produces and all about momentum, and that momentum, whoever wins, is likely to have been blunted."

The New York Times' latest liveblog is here (link corrected). "The Iowa Democratic Party will begin releasing results from the caucuses at 5 p.m. Eastern time.... [Iowa party] chairman Troy Price ... told the campaigns 'the majority' of results that it had in hand would be made public later Tuesday but he dodged questions from the campaigns about how much would be released and when final totals would become available." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McUltraCrabbie: What usefulness is a partial release? It can only misrepresent results. It's like declaring Hillary Clinton president because New York State, Washington, D.C., & Massachusetts had released their 2016 general election results.

~~~ The Washington Post's liveblog is here. And here's the Guardian's. The Guardian posts a link to the newest Gallup poll that shows Trump's approval rating at the highest evah.

Steve Peoples, et al., of the AP: "The Iowa Democratic Party said Monday night that results from the state's first-in-the-nation caucus were greatly delayed due to 'quality checks' and new reporting rules, an embarrassing complication that added a new layer of doubt to an already uncertain presidential primary season.... Long before any significant results were released, the candidates pressed ahead with post-election rallies claiming momentum." Mrs. McC: With no results announced, Pete Buttigieg delivered a speech implying he had won. Since there's more than one way to "win" in Iowa, he may be right. Besides, why not claim the prize? Klobuchar's campaign chairman said their internal count shows Klobuchar matched or bested Biden.

Quint Forgey of Politico: "Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders each declared triumph -- and war on each other -- after a technical meltdown prevented the release of results from the Iowa caucuses, plunging the Democratic field into chaos. The former South Bend mayor was the most aggressive out of the gates, anointing himself 'victorious' in a speech to supporters and releasing unverified internal counts that the campaign said showed it was 'on our way to winning' the delegate count.... Sanders' campaign quickly followed suit, releasing its own unverified internal caucus numbers that portrayed the Vermont senator with a sizable lead in the Iowa delegate race." ~~~

~~~ Natasha Korecki, et al., of Politico: "The biggest 'winner' might have been Joe Biden. According to the Iowa entrance poll, he was hovering close to the viability threshold of 15 percent statewide. But the questions surrounding the vote-counting served to obscure a potentially poor performance. The former vice president, facing potentially ugly headlines going into New Hampshire and beyond, couldn't get out of Iowa fast enough."

Nick Corasaniti, et al., of the New York Times: "The app that the Iowa Democratic Party commissioned to tabulate and report results from the caucuses on Monday was not properly tested at a statewide scale, said people who were briefed on the app by the state party. It was quickly put together in just the past two months, said the people, some of whom asked to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to speak publicly. And the party decided to use the app only after another proposal for reporting votes -- which entailed having caucus participants call in their votes over the phone -- was abandoned, on the advice of Democratic National Committee officials, according to David Jefferson, a board member of Verified Voting, a nonpartisan election integrity organization." There were quite a few top chefs pissing in this broth; it was a recipe for epic fail, partly because none of the chefs even bothered to taste the broth. ~~~

~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Is this going to be the second presidential election in succession where Democrats lose because they can't handle technology? And -- as comes as no surprise to me -- the second where the DNC is one of the culprits. New York's Intelligencer kinda captures the chaos. Scroll down the page (it won't be there forever).

@12:45 pm ET, MSNBC reported the Iowa Democratic party held a conference call with the campaigns; the call got very heated; and the party "hung up on the campaigns" as campaign reps began asking questions.

Mrs. McCrabbie @11:55 pm ET Monday: Glad I didn't skip my teevee show.No Iowa results yet. According to the New York Times liveblog (linked below), "Party officials said the results had been delayed because of efforts to do 'quality control' before data was made public. 'We found inconsistencies in the reporting of three sets of results,' said Mandy McClure, the party's communications director. 'In addition to the tech systems being used to tabulate results, we are also using photos of results and a paper trail to validate that all results match and ensure that we have confidence and accuracy in the numbers we report. This is simply a reporting issue, the app did not go down and this is not a hack or an intrusion...." Gee, maybe the Iowa caucuses shouldn't be "first in the nation." ~~~

~~~ Eric Levitz of New York: "The 'first-in-the-nation' Iowa caucuses died Monday night after a protracted battle with advanced-stage omnishambles. Or so we can hope. Iowa's eccentric, endearing -- and wildly anti-democratic -- nominating contest has always been an indefensible institution. There is no reason why the most politically-engaged and/or time-rich citizens of America's 31st most populous state should have the power to veto presidential candidates before anyone else in the country has a say. And yet, few of Iowa's bitterest critics ever dreamed it would subject the country to something like this."

New York Times reporters are liveblogging the Iowa caucuses. "The Iowa presidential caucuses begin at 8 p.m. Eastern time at more than 1,600 sites across the state. The caucuses vary in length; small gatherings can be over in minutes, larger ones can last up to two hours. The first results are expected at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, with most results in hand by 11 p.m. Seven Democratic candidates are mounting competitive campaigns in Iowa. They are Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusets, former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, the former tech executive Andrew Yang and the former hedge fund investor Tom Steyer. ~~~

     ~~~ The New York Times' results page is here. The Times also has results graphics on its front page.

~~~ The Washington Post's liveblog is here. The Post's results page is here, with results graphics currently on its front page, too.

~~~ The NBC News liveblog is here. Gee, It's not even 8:45 pm ET, & NBC News has already predicted candidate Trump won the GOP caucuses. ~~~

     ~~~ Cristina Cabrera of TPM: "... Donald Trump and his reelection campaign seized on the chaos of Monday's Iowa Democratic caucuses, the results of which are still unknown as of Tuesday morning due to technical issues with the tallying process. 'The Democrat Caucus is an unmitigated disaster,' Trump tweeted early Tuesday. 'Nothing works, just like they ran the Country.' He then patted himself on the back, claiming that he was 'the only person' who won 'a very big victory' in Iowa." Mrs. McC: Can't blame him for that. Thanks, Iowa, for giving Trump a couple of great talking points!

Let's see how this turns out: ~~~

~~~ Ryan Lizza of Politico: "If you were an alien visiting Iowa this weekend and were asked to guess the order of Monday's results based on nothing but watching the top four Democrats speak, you would predict a Bernie Sanders victory, followed by Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden.... The alien would notice that Sanders' events, at least the two big ones this week with musicians, are large and electric, that Biden's are small and sleepy, and that Warren and Buttigieg's fall somewhere in between. The Iowa caucuses reward enthusiasm, especially at the end. The famous three-step strategy that every campaign attempts to implement was popularized by former Rep. Dave Nagle and is often summarized as: Organize, organize, and get hot at the end. In the final weekend of every caucus I have covered, the 'hot' candidates were apparent from their final events."

MEANWHILE. Daniel Bice of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "The two top officials overseeing Milwaukee's host committee for the 2020 Democratic National Convention were sidelined Monday amid allegations of a toxic work culture. In a letter to staff obtained by the Journal Sentinel, the board said it had retained an attorney to investigate 'concerns about the work environment' for the Milwaukee 2020 Host Committee. During the investigation, Liz Gilbert, president of the host committee, will not be in the office and 'will not have direct contact with staff,' the letter says. Adam Alonso, the chief of staff for the group, has been placed on administrative leave, pending the outcome of the probe. Both will be paid as the investigation moves forward. The letter gives no timeline when Carmen N. Decot, a partner with Foley & Lardner, will finish her probe. The abrupt move comes less than six months before the start of the Democratic National Convention. The host committee -- the civic, nonpartisan arm of the convention -- is responsible for raising $70 million to stage the July event at Fiserv Forum and recruit some 15,000 volunteers."

The Petty, Petit, Picayune President*. Matthew Chapman of the Raw Story: "On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that ... Donald Trump's campaign ejected Jennifer Jacobs, a reporter for Bloomberg News, out of a campaign event in Iowa. The decision, according to the report, is in accordance with the campaign's 'pledge no longer to approve credentials for the news organization.' Trump cracked down on credentials for the organization as its CEO, Michael Bloomberg, has mounted a campaign for president and blanketed the airwaves across the country with advertisements slamming the president." The Wall Street Journal report is here.

Nicholas Fandos & Catie Edmondson of the New York Times: "In their final appeals in President Trump's impeachment trial, House Democrats argued on Monday that he had corrupted the presidency and would continue to put American interests at risk if the Senate failed to remove him from office. Mr. Trump's defenders, denouncing the case against him, said he had done nothing wrong and should be judged by voters.... The abbreviated closing arguments constituted the substantive end of Mr. Trump's impeachment trial, the third such proceeding in American history. In a mark of just how entrenched both sides were in their positions, senators skipped a period of deliberation and instead made their way to Senate floor one by one to announce their positions ahead of Wednesday's final vote on the House's abuse of power and obstruction of Congress charges. In 1999, the Senate spent three days weighing President Bill Clinton's fate during his impeachment proceeding."

Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Centrist Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) on Monday urged the Senate to censure President Trump for holding up military aid to Ukraine in order to spur an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden, predicting a formal reprimand could pick up bipartisan support. 'I do believe a bipartisan majority of this body would vote to censure President Trump for his actions in this matter. Censure would allow this body to unite across party lines, and as an equal branch of government to formally denounce the president's actions and hold him accountable,' Manchin said in a speech on the Senate floor. Manchin's proposal has received little traction among Senate Republicans who control the schedule, but it could gain the support of a handful of Republicans who have expressed concern over Trump's actions, including Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). Manchin warned that if the Senate failed to respond in a bipartisan way to Trump's attempt to solicit foreign influence in the 2020 election, it would represent a serious setback for the chamber." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

     ~~~ The Washington Post's story is here.

~~~ The New York Times' live updates of the Senate impeachment proceedings are here. ~~~ (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

~~~ Nicholas Fandos: "The key to the House's abuse of power charge against President Trump has always been whether he conditioned official acts ... on investigations into his political rivals. As they closed their defense on Monday, Mr. Trump's team insisted again that he did not -- but the denial was narrowly tailored in light of new disclosures.... [For instance, Michael] Purpura ... said that 'none of the House witnesses ever testified that there was any linkage between security assistance and investigations.'... That is strictly true. But John R. Bolton ... has written in a manuscript that Mr. Trump told him directly that he would only release the assistance on help with the investigations. He has also offered to testify, but senator refused to call him to the trial."

The Guardian's liveblog is here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Sarah Kendzior in The Globe and Mail: "The Senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump was never a matter of law. It was always a matter of power.... The way that Mr. Trump gets out of crimes is not by actually proving his innocence, but by declaring that crimes are not crimes when he commits them.... The President does not want to be punished but he loves to get caught. He flaunts every crime he gets away with because it showcases the degradation of law, which ironically was furthered by his opponents' blind faith in it.... But the trial still had witnesses. We, the people, are the witnesses.... We are so tired of being witnesses that we feel like a captive audience. But it is important to remain a witness in a time of autocratic consolidation.... It doesn't feel empowering to be a witness under a regime determined to destroy the very concept of truth. But the truth always matters. If the truth didn't matter, they wouldn't work so hard to suppress it." --s

"It's Payback Time." Gabriel Sherman of Vanity Fair: "With Senate Republicans on track to acquit Donald Trump on Wednesday, Washington is bracing for what an unshackled Trump does next. Republicans briefed on Trump's thinking believe that the president is out for revenge against his adversaries. 'It's payback time,' a prominent Republican told me last week. 'He has an enemies list that is growing by the day,' another source said. Names that came up in my conversations with Republicans included Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Mitt Romney, and John Bolton. 'Trump's playbook is simple: go after people who crossed him during impeachment.' Several sources said Bolton is at the top of the list.... 'Trump has been calling people and telling them to go after Bolton,' a source briefed on the private conversations said. The source added that Trump wants Bolton to be criminally investigated.... According to a former official, the White House is planning to leak White House emails from Bolton that purportedly allege Bolton abused his position at the National Security Council." Emphasis added. ~~~

~~~ Brian Schwartz of CNBC: “Several of ... Donald Trump's most loyal donors and supporters are telling other conservative financiers to shun former national security advisor John Bolton's political action committee and super PAC as he prepares to publish a memoir that is reportedly critical of the administration.... The move by these donors to take on Bolton is the latest example of how Trump has command of those who fund the Republican Party.... 'He's dead to everyone,' said a longtime aide of a Trump megadonor." ~~~

~~~ Rhea Mahbubani of Business Insider: Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the Conservative Political Action Conference [CPAC], lashed out at Sen. Mitt Romney in a tweet Friday, saying that he will not be welcome at the 2020 gathering. Schlapp's move followed the senator's decision to break ranks and vote with 47 Democratic senators who sought witnesses and additional documents during ... Donald Trump's impeachment trial Friday."

Sarah Blaskey of the Miami Herald: "... Donald Trump has repeatedly said all Americans should 'stand proudly' during the national anthem, and publicly chastises those who don't as disrespectful of the troops. But during the national anthem at his own Super Bowl watch party Sunday night, a brief video posted to Instagram shows Trump greeting guests, adjusting his chair, and straightening his suit jacket as other attendees -- including first lady Melania Trump and their teenage son -- stand with their hands over their hearts. As 'The Star Spangled Banner' crescendoes, Trump raises both of his hands in the air, and twirls them around as if conducting the music. The video was included in an Instagram story by a real estate agent for a Russian-American firm who frequents Mar-a-Lago and other Trump properties and events." You can watch Trump clowning his way through the anthem on this YouTube video.

Jonathan Chait explains why some Trumpbots -- like Steve Doocy & Matt Schlapp -- are defending Trump's misplacing the KC Chiefs in the wrong Kansas City. "The stupidity is the point...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) As for Adam Steinbaugh's Sharpie "correction" to the Kansas state map embedded yesterday? Better go with it. ~~~

~~~ SharpieGate 1.0. Nathalie Baptiste of Mother Jones: "Last September, as powerful Hurricane Dorian barreled towards the Bahamas, Donald Trump tweeted that several southern states, including Alabama, would be in its path.... Instead of admitting that he made an error, the president doubled down [altering an official map with a Sharpie]. Emails just released to Buzzfeed News and other media outlets show the internal panic over Trump's false claim at NWS and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.... The emails show NOAA officials confirming that the White House's map was 'doctored' and referred to the Trump administration's attempt to cover up the president's mistake as 'crazy.' As worry spread throughout both NWS and NOAA, agency forecasters and scientists feared retaliation if they contradicted the president by providing accurate information about the deadly storm." --s

Jake Johnson of Common Dreams: "... Jared Kushner is once more under intense scrutiny after new reporting revealed that his lucrative financial relationship with Israel has deepened even as his influence over U.S. Middle East policy -- from his leading role in Trump's effort to 'derail' a U.N. vote against Israel to his sway over the president's Jerusalem move -- has continued to grow. According to a report published Sunday by the New York Times, Kushner's real estate firm received a $30 million investment from Menora Mivtachim -- one of Israel's largest financial institutions -- just before he accompanied Trump on his first diplomatic trip to Israel last year.... The deal ... was not made public.... And the Menora deal is just one component of Kushner's sprawling and complex financial ties with Israel, the Times makes clear." --s

Jonathan Swan, et al., of Axios: "Veterans Affairs deputy secretary James Byrne was fired Monday morning..., the White House confirmed.... VA Secretary Robert Wilkie said he dismissed Byrne 'due to loss of confidence in Mr. Byrne's ability to carry out his duties.' Wilkie said the decision 'is effective immediately.'... The VA has come under fire after a House staff member said she was sexually assaulted at the VA hospital in Washington. The White House was disappointed by the way Wilkie and the VA handled the situation, according to three sources.... Facing pressure from the White House, Wilkie asked for Byrne's resignation Monday.... VA press secretary Christina Mandreucci denied that Byrne's dismissal was related to the sexual assault investigation, but did not elaborate further.... The staff member's complaint of sexual assault was investigated by the agency's Office of Inspector General, but no charges were brought. In a letter to the House Veterans Affairs Committee Chair Mark Takano (D-Calif.) last month, Wilkie called the staffer's claims of sexual assault 'unsubstantiated' and defended the VA as a 'safe place for all veterans.' The agency IG Michael Missal then pushed back in a letter to Wilkie, saying he had thoroughly briefed Wilkie and Byrne on the decision: 'Reaching a decision to close the investigation with no criminal charges does not mean that the underlying allegation is unsubstantiated,' he said." ~~~

~~~ Jennifer Steinhauer of the New York Times: "Mr. Byrne, who was confirmed by the Senate just five months ago, was closely involved in the agency's Office of Accountability and Whistle-Blower Protection. The office was set up by the Trump administration in 2017 to root out malfeasance and has become a target of accusations that it retaliated against the very people it was meant to protect." ~~~

~~~ Andrea Goldstein, the victim of the alleged assault, describes in a Jezebel opinion piece the effects Wilkie's dismissive letter had on her: "Secretary Wilkie's continued refusal to take ownership of the hostility and sexual violence at VA further perpetuated this hostile culture by both revictimizing a veteran in public and denying the culture of harassment and assault whose existence is well documented."

Natasha Bertrand & Mona Zhang of Politico: "A businessman facing federal charges over an alleged plot to trade political donations for help obtaining marijuana licenses around the country was working on a medical cannabis research deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs just weeks before his indictment. Andrey Kukushkin [is] a Ukraine-born cannabis investor whose multi-state marijuana projects and political donations were allegedly illegally funded by a Russian national.... Kukushkin was indicted alongside the businessmen Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman ... and their associate David Correa.... The VA's proposed Cooperative Research and Development Agreement, known as a CRADA, with Kukushkin's company, Oasis LLC, has not been previously reported. National security experts say the arrangement raises red flags, given the level of access Kukushkin and his alleged Russian funder would have had to government scientists, including one who does work with the Pentagon." --s

Matthew Cole of The Intercept: "The commander of the Navy SEALs [Naval Special Warfare Command, Rear Adm. Collin Green,] who found himself at odds with ... Donald Trump over disciplining a notorious member of his force has informed the Navy that he will step down a year early, according to three people familiar with the decision.... His departure follows two years during which he sought to repair the vaunted military unit's image after a slew of criminal charges against SEALs, including war crimes, murder, drug use, and sexual assault.... Green's departure is unusual in part because it comes as his current tour length of two years is being extended to three, meaning he has effectively declined a final year in the job and won't seek a third star." --s

Mike Brest of the Washington Examiner: "Conservative radio hos Rush Limbaugh revealed that he had been diagnosed with advanced lung cancer. On his radio show Monday, Limbaugh, 69, also said that he would likely miss some time on the program while he undergoes treatment." Thanks to safari for the lead.

News Lede: The New York Times' coronavirus updates are here. A guide to protect yourself from this & other viruses is linked under PSAs.

The Commentariat -- February 3, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Centrist Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) on Monday urged the Senate to censure President Trump for holding up military aid to Ukraine in order to spur an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden, predicting a formal reprimand could pick up bipartisan support. 'I do believe a bipartisan majority of this body would vote to censure President Trump for his actions in this matter. Censure would allow this body to unite across party lines, and as an equal branch of government to formally denounce the president's actions and hold him accountable,' Manchin said in a speech on the Senate floor. Manchin's proposal has received little traction among Senate Republicans who control the schedule, but it could gain the support of a handful of Republicans who have expressed concern over Trump's actions, including Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). Manchin warned that if the Senate failed to respond in a bipartisan way to Trump's attempt to solicit foreign influence in the 2020 election, it would represent a serious setback for the chamber."

~~~ The New York Times' live updates of the Senate impeachment proceedings are here.

~~~ Nicholas Fandos: "The key to the House's abuse of power charge against President Trump has always been whether he conditioned official acts ... on investigations into his political rivals. As they closed their defense on Monday, Mr. Trump's team insisted again that he did not -- but the denial was narrowly tailored in light of new disclosures.... [For instance, Michael] Purpura ... said that 'none of the House witnesses ever testified that there was any linkage between security assistance and investigations.'... That is strictly true. But John R. Bolton ... has written in a manuscript that Mr. Trump told him directly that he would only release the assistance on help with the investigations. He has also offered to testify, but senators refused to call him...."

The Guardian's liveblog is here. ~~~

Jonathan Chait explains why some Trumpbots -- like Steve Steve Doocy & Matt Schlapp -- are defending Trump's misplacing the KC Chiefs in the wrong Kansas City. "The stupidity is the point...." So Adam Steinbaugh's Sharpie "correction" to the Kansas state map below? Better go with it.

~~~~~~~~~~

John Wagner of the Washington Post: "The Senate is poised to hear up to four hours of closing arguments Monday in the impeachment trial of President Trump.... The Senate is set to hear closing arguments Monday from House impeachment managers and Trump's lawyers starting at 11 a.m. Both sides will have up to two hours to make their case, under a resolution adopted along party lines on Friday after the Republican-led Senate voted against hearing from former national security adviser John Bolton and other witnesses in the historic impeachment trial." Emphasis added.

Presidential Race

Here's the New York Times' liveblog of mostly old white people running & voting for POTUS. The caucuses begin at 8 pm ET. Mrs. McC: I personally am going to spend the time watching an episode of "Vera."

Jason Clayworth of the Des Moines Register: "Iowa's backlog of hundreds of felon voter restoration applications has been processed ahead of Monday's presidential caucuses, a spokesman for Gov. Kim Reynolds [R] said Friday. Voter advocates last month had voiced concern about the backlog of more than 300 applications, some saying that denying the vote to the applicants could damage the reputation of the state's first-in-the-nation caucuses. Reynolds, in turn, vowed to process the applications ahead of Monday, Caucus Day. League of Women Voters of Iowa President Terese Grant said Friday she is happy with Reynolds' progress."

Allan Smith of NBC News: "... Donald Trump and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg traded barbs on Sunday hours before their dueling ads were set to compete during the Super Bowl.... '... You know, now he wants a box for the debates to stand on. OK. It's OK. There's nothing wrong. You can be short. Why should he get a box to stand on. He wants a box for the debates. Why should he be entitled? Does that mean everyone else gets a box?, [Trump said to Sean Hannity in a pre-Super Bowl interview.]... Bloomberg's campaign said there was no truth to Trump's remarks. 'The president is lying,' Bloomberg campaign spokesperson Julie Wood said in a statement. 'He is a pathological liar who lies about everything: his fake hair, his obesity, and his spray-on tan.' The former mayor echoed his spokesperson's remarks, saying that Trump 'lies about everything so you shouldn't be surprised that he said things like that.'"

A Fucking Distraction. Natasha Korecki of Politico: "John Kerry is supposed to be stumping for Joe Biden. But the former Secretary of State caused a kerfuffle Sunday after NBC News published a story detailing a phone call Kerry had in a hotel lobby here. Kerry was overheard by an NBC analyst apparently strategizing how he could enter the presidential race now that there was 'the possibility of Bernie Sanders taking down the Democratic Party -- down whole.' In the conversation, which took place in the Renaissance Savery hotel downtown, Kerry reportedly said, 'maybe I'm f[uck]ing deluding myself here,' then went on to explain the steps he would have to take if he jumped into the fray, including hitting up wealthy donors who might be frightened by Sanders' rise. Kerry ... emphatically denied he had renewed White House aspirations, tweeting 'any report otherwise is f[uck]ing (or categorically) false.' He later deleted the tweet with the expletive and re-posted a full statement adamantly denying he had any interest in running and that he was fully behind Biden's candidacy.?

The Oscar for Sunday's Worst Impeachment Commentary by a Republican Goes to ... Joni Ernst. Summer Concepcion of TPM: "On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) entertained the idea of impeaching Joe Biden if he were to win the presidency.... Ernst's latest remarks come on the heels of her controversial comment last week when she wondered aloud to reporters whether the Trump legal team's Biden-focused arguments in the Senate impeachment trial would influence Democratic Iowa caucus-goers. In her interview with Bloomberg News Sunday, Ernst suggested that if elected, Biden would run the risk of being impeached by Republicans because 'this door of impeachable whatever has been opened.'.... Ernst also told Bloomberg News that Biden would be impeached 'for being assigned to take on Ukrainian corruption yet turning a blind eye to Burisma because his son was on the board making over a million dollars a year,' stoking the debunked claim by former Ukraine prosecutor general Viktor Shokin that his investigation into Burisma led to his ouster...." ~~~

~~~ First Runner-up: Lindsey Graham. Felicia Sonmez & Rachel Bade of the Washington Post: "Senate Republicans on Sunday acknowledged President Trump was wrong to pressure Ukraine for his own political benefit, even as they defended their decision to prohibit new evidence in his impeachment trial while pressing ahead with the president's all-but-certain acquittal. The remarks from key Republicans ... came after the Trump administration revealed the existence of emails that could shed light on the president's reasons for withholding military aid to Ukraine.... [Lindsey Graham] suggested a sweeping GOP counterattack following Wednesday's vote to acquit the president.... Graham outlined a plan that would include an investigation of former vice president Joe Biden, who is running for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, and a pursuit of the whistleblower whose account triggered the probe into Trump's efforts to pressure Ukraine." ~~~

~~~ Zack Budryk of the Hill: "Alan Dershowitz, a member of President Trump's defense team in his Senate impeachment trial, said Sunday that the president tying military aid to Ukraine to investigations of his rivals would be 'troubling if it were proved' but that 'troubling is not the criteria for impeachment.' 'On Election Day, as a citizen, I will allow that to enter into my decision,' Dershowitz said when asked by Fox News's Chris Wallace if he would find the alleged quid pro quo at the center of the impeachment fight 'troubling.'... Dershowitz responded, 'Of course any citizen would find that troubling if it were proved.... If a president linked aid to an ally to personal benefit that was not in the public interest, that would be wrong,' he added. 'That would be a reason for him not to vote for him.'" Mrs. McC Translation: I only say this stuff to get on national teevee. Vote for the anti-Trump.

~~~ Hahahahahaha. Zack Budryk: "Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) said on Sunday he believes that despite his certain acquittal this week, President Trump's impeachment will dissuade him from conduct of the kind that led to the impeachment proceedings.... 'If a call like this gets you an impeachment, I would think he would think twice before he did it again,' Alexander added, referencing a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky...." Mrs. McC: That's a lot like how the Mueller investigation made Trump think twice when he called Zelensky the day after Mueller wrapped up his report by testifying before Congress. Is Alexander stupid or does he think we are? ~~~

     ~~~ Update. Mrs. McCrabbie: Apparently the incredible "Trump learned his lesson" is now the GOP party line. Joni Ernst repeated it on CNN.

Matt Ford of the New Republic on how Senate Republicans have embraced Trumpian nihilism. "Republican lawmakers, blanching at the prospect of removing the president from power, remove themselves instead.... What set [Lisa] Murkowski's [R-Alaska] statement apart is that she said her 'no' vote on witnesses wasn't because they weren't necessary for the proceedings or wouldn't be relevant to the case, but because their testimony wouldn't matter. 'I have come to the conclusion that there will be no fair trial in the Senate,' Murkowski said. 'I don't believe the continuation of this process will change anything. It is sad for me to admit that, as an institution, the Congress has failed.' It's hard to dispute that statement. But her assertion nonetheless reminds me of a GPS-navigation company's ad in 2010 that told commuters, 'You are not stuck in traffic. You are traffic.' It's one thing to complain that there won't be a fair trial in the Senate. It's another thing to vote in favor of ensuring that there won't be a fair trial in the Senate. But it's really something to do both."

** David Leonardt of the New York Times: "It wasn't the most notorious part of the 'Access Hollywood' tape, but it was the most revealing: 'And when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.'... In the more than three years since the tape emerged, it's become clear that the you-can-do-anything line ... was describing his attitude toward everything: If you're rich, famous or powerful, you can get away with much more than most people understand. You just do it. You don';t need to worry about ethical niceties or even, sometimes, the law. You use your advantages to bulldoze any obstacles. For anyone trying to make sense of the impeachment trial, this attitude is central.... And although the United States is not an autocracy, our country is taking steps in that direction that I never imagined we would."

The great thing about the You-Ess-Ay is that you can be dumb as dirt and still get elected to the highest public office. ~~~

Chris Chavez of Sports Illustrated: "... Donald Trump took to Twitter after the Kansas City Chiefs' 31-20 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV to congratulate the team and the 'Great State of Kansas.' But the Chiefs play in Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. 'Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs on a great game, and a fantastic comeback, under immense pressure. You represented the Great State of Kansas and, in fact, the entire USA, so very well. Our Country is PROUD OF YOU!' Trump wrote. Trump apparently realized his mistake, as he deleted the tweet a few minutes later." Mrs. McC: I doubt it was Trump who realized the mistake. As Matt Stieb of New York conjectures, the mistake "could only have been a harrowing experience for the aide that had to inform the president of yet another basic failure of geography." ~~~

pic.twitter.com/qcgsIRSQQR

— Adam Steinbaugh (@adamsteinbaugh) February 3, 2020

Jonathan Swan of Axios: "President Trump often says he's the smartest person in the room on virtually every topic. Now, after taking several risks on what he privately calls 'big shit' and avoiding catastrophe, Trump and his entire inner circle convey supreme self-confidence, bordering on a sense of invincibility.... Three years into Trump's presidency, their view is the naysayers are always wrong.... Every day, Trump grows more confident in his gut and less deterrable. Over the last month, 10 senior administration officials have described this sentiment to me. Most of them share it.... Trumpworld's sense of being unbeatable has only grown. This is partly because the president sometimes defines victory in narrow terms, like pleasing the base and juicing the markets."

S.V. Date of the Huffington Post: "Taxpayers shelled out another $3.4 million to send ... Donald Trump to Florida this weekend so he could host a Super Bowl party for paying guests at his for-profit golf course. The president's official schedule shows him spending two and a half hours Sunday evening at a 'Super Bowl LIV watch party' at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach. Tickets sold for $75 each, but were only available to members of the club -- the initiation fee for which reportedly runs about $450,000, with annual dues costing several thousands of dollars more."

Rachel Wolf of the Jerusalem Post: "European Union High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell said that ... Donald Trump's Middle East peace deal, 'challenges many of the internationally agreed parameters: the 1967 border, as agreed by both parties, with a state of Israel and an independent, viable State of Palestine, living side-by-side in peace, security and mutual recognition.'... On Sunday, the EU released Borrell's remarks following his meeting with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi. Speaking in Jordan, Borrell noted the country's 'very special role' in the peace process, 'in particular as regards Jerusalem and as custodian of the Holy Sites.' He affirmed that the EU shares this position and is committed to 'two-state solution and respect for international law.'"

Beyond the Beltway

The great thing about the You-Ess-Ay is that you can be dumb as dirt and still get elected to public office. ~~~

~~~ Montana. Holly Michels of the Billings Gazette: State Rep. Rodney Garcia, "a Billings Republican legislator, said Saturday he believes the U.S. Constitution calls for the shooting or jailing of those who identify as socialists.... [A]fter a speech [at a GOP election kickoff gathering] by former Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, who was Montana's representative in the U.S. House for two years, Garcia said he was concerned about socialists 'entering our government' and socialists 'everywhere' in Billings, before saying the Constitution says to either shoot socialists or put them in jail.... On Saturday, a reporter asked Garcia to clarify his remarks. 'So actually in the Constitution of the United States (if) they are found guilty of being a socialist member you either go to prison or are shot,' Garcia said. Garcia could not to point to where in the Constitution it says socialists could be shot or jailed.... 'I agree with my Constitution,' Garcia said. 'That's what makes us free. We're not a democracy, we're a Republic Constitution.'... The Montana Republican Party later condemned Garcia's remarks."

News Lede. The New York Times is live-updating developments & effects of the coronavirus crisis.

The Commentariat -- February 2, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Zack Budryk of the Hill: "Alan Dershowitz, a member of President Trump's defense team in his Senate impeachment trial, said Sunday that the president tying military aid to Ukraine to investigations of his rivals would be 'troubling if it were proved' but that 'troubling is not the criteria for impeachment.' 'On Election Day, as a citizen, I will allow that to enter into my decision,' Dershowitz said when asked by Fox News's Chris Wallace if he would find the alleged quid pro quo at the center of the impeachment fight 'troubling.'... Dershowitz responded, 'Of course any citizen would find that troubling if it were proved.... If a president linked aid to an ally to personal benefit that was not in the public interest, that would be wrong,' he added. 'That would be a reason for him not to vote for him.'" Mrs. McC Translation: I only say this stuff to get on national teevee. Vote for the anti-Trump.

Hahahahahaha. Zack Budryk: "Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) said on Sunday he believes that despite his certain acquittal this week, President Trump's impeachment will dissuade him from conduct of the kind that led to the impeachment proceedings.... 'If a call like this gets you an impeachment, I would think he would think twice before he did it again,' Alexander added, referencing a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky...." Mrs. McC: That's a lot like how the Mueller investigation made Trump think twice when he called Zelensky the day after Mueller wrapped up his report by testifying before Congress. Is Alexander stupid or does he think we are?

~~~~~~~~~~

Presidential Race

Jonathan Martin & Alexander Burns of the New York Times: "After a long campaign of ideological clashes, policy debates and talk of a grand reckoning on the direction of the Democratic Party, the presidential primaries starting on Monday will be shaped by a less lofty but increasingly urgent matter: determining the best candidate to defeat an incumbent who has already proved to be a political survivor. With Republicans ready to acquit President Trump of two impeachment charges next week, the nation's political table has been set for 2020: Congress will not remove him from office..., leaving the fate of Mr. Trump to the November general election and the candidate nominated by Democrats in the coming months. From the liberal left to the moderate middle, the major presidential contenders are now honing or recalibrating their final appeals before Iowa's caucuses to make the case that they represent the party's best chance to overcome Mr. Trump's well-funded re-election operation and win back the White House this fall."

Lisa Lerer, et al., of the New York Times: "A highly anticipated poll of Iowa Democrats, set to be released two days before the presidential caucuses, was shelved on Saturday night because of concerns about irregularities in the methodology. The apparent problem, raised by aides to Pete Buttigieg, prompted CNN to cancel an hourlong special organized to release the results of their survey, conducted with The Des Moines Register.... A [Buttigieg] supporter received a poll phone call from an operator working for the polling operation, but ... [Buttigieg's] name was not listed on the menu of options.... The poll is conducted by telephone from a call center, where operators read from a prepared script.... One operator had apparently enlarged the font size on their computer screen, perhaps cutting off Mr. Buttigieg's name from the list of options, according to two people.... The survey, published by The Des Moines Register for 76 years, is considered the gold standard for polling in the notoriously hard-to-predict state and is carefully watched as an early indicator of strength in the caucuses." Politico's story is here.

Reid Epstein, et al., of the New York Times explain how the Iowa caucuses work (or not). Mrs. McC: I read somewhere else that there will be some kind of call-in wrinkle this year to further confuse things. The story doesn't mention that.

Jim Tankersley & Alexander Burns of the New York Times: "Former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York unveiled a plan on Saturday that would raise an estimated $5 trillion in new tax revenue from high earners and corporations, a proposal that would almost certainly raise his personal tax bill but is less aggressive than those from his most liberal rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination. The proposal includes a repeal of President Trump's 2017 tax cuts for high earners, along with a new 5 percent 'surcharge' on incomes above $5 million per year. It would raise capital gains taxes for Americans earning more than $1 million a year and maintain a limit on federal deductions of state and local tax payments set under the 2017 law, which some Democrats have pushed to eliminate." An AP story is here.

The Plot Against Bernie. David Siders of Politico: "A small group of Democratic National Committee members has privately begun gauging support for a plan to potentially weaken Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign and head off a brokered convention. In conversations on the sidelines of a DNC executive committee meeting and in telephone calls and texts in recent days, about a half-dozen members have discussed the possibility of a policy reversal to ensure that so-called superdelegates can vote on the first ballot at the party's national convention. Such a move would increase the influence of ... top party officials, who now must wait until the second ballot to have their say.... It is possible [Sanders] could arrive at the convention with the most delegates -- but without enough to win the nomination on the first ballot. It is also possible that he and Elizabeth Warren, a fellow progressive, could arrive at the convention in second and third place, but with more delegates combined than the frontrunner. If, on the second ballot, superdelegates were to throw their support to someone else, tipping the scales, many moderate Democrats fear the upheaval that would cause could weaken the eventual nominee."

The New York Times is live-updating Saturday events in the presidential race. The Washington Post has Iowa caucus updates here.

Katelyn Polantz of CNN: "The Department of Justice revealed in a court filing late Friday that it has two dozen emails related to ... Donald Trump's involvement in the withholding of millions in security assistance to Ukraine -- a disclosure that came just hours after the Senate voted against subpoenaing additional documents and witnesses in Trump's impeachment trial, paving the way for his acquittal. The filing, released near midnight Friday, marks the first official acknowledgment from the Trump administration that emails about the President's thinking related to the aid exist, and that he was directly involved in asking about and deciding on the aid as early as June. The administration is still blocking those emails from the public and has successfully kept them from Congress. A lawyer with the Office of Management and Budget wrote to the court that 24 emails between June and September 2019 -- including an internal discussion among DOD officials called 'POTUS follow-up' on June 24 -- should stay confidential because the emails describe 'communications by either the President, the Vice President, or the President's immediate advisors regarding Presidential decision-making about the scope, duration, and purpose of the hold on military assistance to Ukraine.'" Emphasis added.

The Dangers the Senate Has Unleashed. Sam Brodey & Erin Banco of the Daily Beast: After Senate Republicans acquit him, "U.S. administration officials and foreign officials acknowledge Trump will increasingly manufacture his own foreign policy decisions, with his personal associates, without the input of his intelligence and national security agencies. That means Trump will more likely have the ability to run his personal political errands -- and business agenda -- with little, if any, scrutiny. And when that scheme falls apart, and Trump's personal associates turn on him, or decide to detail the behind-the-scenes shenanigans, the U.S. will lose credibility on the world stage.... National security officials ... [are] genuinely concerned, they said, that the American political system will systematically be compromised by American adversaries and that the foundation of the country's democracy will be peeled away.... Perhaps even more concerning ... is Trump's reliance on conspiracy theories to form the basis of his foreign policy objectives."

Todd Purdum of the Atlantic writes another Requiem for the Senate, in which he recognizes "McConnell's years-long legacy of hyper-partisanship, unremitting obstruction of Barack Obama, and unswerving loyalty to Donald Trump and his caucus's raw political interests crystallized into a profound upending of the norms and procedures of the body he purports to revere."

Jeremy Diamond & Kristen Holmes of CNN: "... don't expect Trump to apologize or express any contrition for his conduct. Instead, people close to the President say they anticipate he will claim vindication and continue to proclaim his complete and total innocence."

Maureen Dowd of the New York Times: "The state of the union is upside down and inside out and sauerkraut. Trump has changed literally everything in the last three years, transforming and coarsening the game. On Friday night, he became, arguably, the most brutishly powerful Republican of all time. Never has a leader had such a stranglehold on his party, subsuming it with one gulp."

Way Beyond the Beltway

Jack Khoury of Haaretz & the AP: "Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said on Saturday the Palestinian Authority has cut all ties with the United States and Israel, including those relating to security, after rejecting a Middle East peace plan presented by ... Donald Trump. Abbas was in Cairo to address the Arab League, which backed the Palestinians in their opposition to Trump's plan. The Arab League rejected Trump's plan, saying in a communique it would not lead to a just peace deal and adding it will not cooperate with the United States to execute the plan." Mrs. McC: What?? You mean Jared read 25 books for nothing?? He should publish his syllabus so we'll know what not to read.

News Ledes

Guardian: "A man has been shot dead by armed police on a busy south London high street following a terrorist-related incident in which a number of people are believed to have been stabbed. Witnesses said they saw a man with silver canisters strapped to his chest and holding a 'machete' being chased by armed plainclothes officers down Streatham High Road before being shot. The attacker was under active surveillance, implying he was considered to post a serious risk, and was well known to the counter-terror authorities, the Guardian understands. He was also the subject of a live investigation."

The New York Times' live updates of developments in the coronavirus epidemic are here.