The Commentariat -- January 10, 2019

Afternoon Update:

Maggie Haberman & Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times: "Michael D. Cohen, President Trump's former personal lawyer who implicated him in a scheme to pay hush money to two women claiming to have had affairs with him, has agreed to testify before the House Oversight Committee next month and give 'a full and credible account' of his work for Mr. Trump. Mr. Cohen's decision to appear before the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Feb. 7 sets the stage for a blockbuster public hearing that threatens to further damage the president's image and could clarify the depth of his legal woes."

Bill Barr Drops His Shutdown Excuse. Karoun Demirjian of the Washington Post: "Attorney general nominee William P. Barr tried Thursday to assuage Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats' concerns that he might be too biased to oversee the special counsel's Russia probe, but the lawmakers said they would need to see public proof to back up his closed-door assurances before they could consider backing his nomination. 'The Mueller probe is the big issue for me ... he reassured to some extent. The hard questions have to get asked in the public and get on the record,' Sen. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), the panel's ranking Democrat, said of her Thursday morning meeting with Barr. 'These meetings are different; they really are just people to people ... what matters is what happens in the committee and what's said on the record.' Feinstein is one of five panel Democrats who were expected to meet with Barr on Thursday, after several complained that they were being iced out of his schedule and being told it was because of the partial government shutdown. Barr begins his public confirmation hearings ... on Tuesday."

Heather Long of the Washington Post: "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell ... predicted the economy is not going to plunge into a deep downturn this year. 'I don't see a recession' in 2019, Powell said Thursday in an interview at The Economic Club of Washington D.C. 'The U.S. economy is solid and there's good momentum going into this year.' Several prominent economists and investors have said there's a heightened chance of a recession by 2020. Larry Summers, a Harvard professor and former Treasury Secretary under former President Bill Clinton, said earlier this week that he thinks there's 'better than a 50/50 chance' of a recession in 2020. Powell stressed the Fed is 'watching' the situation closely and monitoring potential cracks in the economy. His biggest concern is weakening growth in China and Europe, although he warned a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could become a drag on the economy.";

Marissa Lang of the Washington Post: "Hundreds of furloughed federal workers, contractors, union representatives and supporters gathered [near the White House] in the brisk wind and bitter cold Thursday to demand government leaders 'end this shutdown.' Leaders of the National Federation of Federal Employees said they hoped that bringing federal workers to the president's doorstep would show him whom the shutdown has hurt most. President Trump, though, wasn't there to see them, having left earlier in the day to visit the U.S.-Mexico border...."

Michael Tackett of the New York Times: "President Trump left Washington on Thursday on a trip to McAllen, Texas, that he did not want to take to discuss a crisis on the border that Democrats say does not exist. Their disagreement has led to a protracted shutdown affecting vast swaths of the federal government that have nothing to do with the construction of a wall between the United States and Mexico.... The president left Washington with no additional negotiations scheduled with congressional leaders. In remarks to reporters on Thursday, Mr. Trump left open the possibility of declaring a state of emergency, which could allow him to bypass Congress to fund the wall. Asked if he would make such a declaration, an action that would likely face legal challenges, Mr. Trump said: 'If this doesn't work out, probably I will do it. I would almost say definitely.'" Mrs. McC: McAllen? How about McAlamo? ...

Everything Is Going Very Smoothly:

Great Wall of Trump. Via NBC News.

... Jacob Soboroff & Julia Ainsley of NBC News: "... Donald Trump has repeatedly advocated for a steel slat design for his border wall, which he described as 'absolutely critical to border security' in his Oval Office address to the nation Tuesday. But Department of Homeland Security testing of a steel slat prototype proved it could be cut through with a saw, according to a report by DHS. A photo exclusively obtained by NBC News shows the results of the test after military and Border Patrol personnel were instructed to attempt to destroy the barriers with common tools. The Trump administration directed the construction of eight steel and concrete prototype walls that were built in Otay Mesa, California, just across the border from Tijuana, Mexico.... Testing by DHS in late 2017 showed all eight prototypes, including the steel slats, were vulnerable to breaching, according to an internal February 2018 U.S. Customs and Border Protection report." ...

... Todd Frankel of the Washington Post: "It would take an estimated 10,000 construction workers more than 10 years to build the kind of 1,000-mile wall President Trump has said he wants. Even the more modest $5.7 billion in wall funding Trump directly requested during a prime time Oval Office address Tuesday to address what he called 'a growing humanitarian and security crisis' would take an army of 10,000 workers more than two years to build and yield only 230 miles of barrier, according to estimates. And even at 1,000 miles long, the steel-slatted border wall would still be too small to be a boon for U.S. steelmakers. The full version of Trump's envisioned border wall featuring rarely tested heights cast over almost unimaginable distances -- would cost at least $25 billion.... [Trump's] steel tariffs add about $1 billion to the estimated $25 billion border-wall project price tag...." Frankel notes that not only the material, but also the length, of the Great Wall of Trump keeps changing: from 2,000 miles to 700 to 1,000. Mrs. McC: And that doesn't count the time it would take to condemn any lands along the route not already owned by the federal government. I don't think the figure cited includes the costs of property & litigation. ...

... Speaking of Which.... Nomaan Merchant of the AP: "Congress in March funded 33 miles ... of walls and fencing in Texas. The government has laid out plans that would cut across private land in the Rio Grande Valley. Those in the way include landowners who have lived in the valley for generations, environmental groups and a 19th century chapel. Many have hired lawyers who are preparing to fight the government if, as expected, it moves to seize their land through eminent domain. The opposition will intensify if Democrats accede to the Trump administration's demand to build more than 215 new miles of wall, including 104 miles in the Rio Grande Valley and 55 miles near Laredo. Even a compromise solution to build 'steel slats,' as Trump has suggested, or more fencing of the kind that Democrats have previously supported would likely trigger more court cases and pushback in Texas. Legal experts say Trump likely cannot waive eminent domain -- which requires the government to demonstrate a public use for the land and provide landowners with compensation -- by declaring a national emergency."

**Ian Millhiser of ThinkProgress: "In 2016, then-Indiana Gov. Mike Pence signed a law whose main purpose appears to be trolling the libs. Just over two years later, this law could provide the Republican-controlled Supreme Court with the vehicle it needs to kill Roe v. Wade -- and the Court could decide to hear a challenge to this law as soon as Friday. The case is Box v. Planned Parenthood of Indiana and Kentucky.... It's an obviously unconstitutional law. It's the kind of law you get if you hand the legislative power over to the editors of Breitbart News. But then something unexpected happened.... Both of the men the serial-sexual-predator-turned-president placed on the Supreme Court took gratuitous swipes at abortion rights while they were lower court judges. There are almost certainly five men on the Supreme Court right now who believe that the Indiana law is constitutional." --s

UPDATE: Josh Marshall : "The New York Times issued a major correction early [Wednesday] afternoon. They now say that Paul Manafort had his Ukraine-based fixer Konstantin Kilimnik send polling data not to Oleg Deripaska but to Serhiy Lyovochkin and Rinat Akhmetov, two Ukrainian oligarchs who were major financial backers of deposed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Manafort's longtime client. This is a pretty big difference and a major error by the Times. But I'm not sure it really changes the big picture.... Why do these two need campaign data from the Trump campaign? Why is that a thing of value that will get them to pay up their alleged debts [to Manafort]? Akhmetov is a metals and mining magnate in Ukraine. The answer seems obvious." --s

*****

Time for Some Shutdown Entertainment. This is un-fucking-believable:

What the fresh hell. This is REAL. Filmed in 1958- about a conman who grifts a small town of suckers into building a wall. History not subtle enough for you? GUESS THE GRIFTER'S NAME
(And watch until the end) pic.twitter.com/6FA3p6KC00

— Alex Hirsch (@_AlexHirsch) January 9, 2019

... In case you think this is a hoax -- a recently-produced "old TV Western" designed to make fun of Trump -- Snopes says it's a real episode of a '50s Western series called "Trackdown."

Another Trumpertantrum Follows the March of the Lemmings. Nicholas Fandos & Michael Tackett of the New York Times: "President Trump slammed his hand on a table and stormed out of a White House meeting with congressional leaders on Wednesday after Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California said she would not fund a wall along the southern border, dramatically escalating the confrontation over the government shutdown. Stunned Democrats emerged from the White House meeting declaring that Mr. Trump had thrown a 'temper tantrum.' The president's allies accused of refusing to negotiate. Then he tweeted that the meeting was 'a total waste of time.'... The afternoon altercation came after President Trump appeared to rally nervous Senate Republicans around his strategy to keep parts of the government closed until Democrats accede to his demand for $5.7 billion for a border wall.... Moderate Republicans who entered the room confident that senators were coalescing around the idea that the government should be reopened while the border security debate continues left disappointed, convinced that for now, the party would follow Mr. Trump perilously further into a shutdown with an uncertain end." ...

     ... Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Some semi-talented composer really should write these fools a Sousa-like march, maybe ending in a splashing or a splatting crescendo, & interrupted throughout by intermittent "meep-meep"s. ...

... Trump Says He Has the "Absolute Right to Do National Emergency if I Want." So There. Michael Tackett: "President Trump warned on Wednesday that he reserved the option of declaring a national emergency to build his border wall without congressional approval. The president, speaking ... [as he] headed to a luncheon meeting on Capitol Hill [with Senate Republicans]. Asked whether he was still considering declaring a national emergency, an extraordinary measure rarely used by presidents absent an urgent security threat, Mr. Trump said: 'I think we might work a deal, and if we don't, I may go that route. I have the absolute right to do national emergency if I want.'" ...

... Ed Kilgore: "The surrounding dynamics were pretty bad. Pelosi mocked Trump for failing to show any sympathy for the federal workers and contractors being hurt by the shutdown: 'He thinks maybe they could just ask their father for more money. But they can't,' said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), an implicit dig at Trump's wealthy upbringing.'... As Politico reports, Trump maintained his my-way-or-the-highway posture in a meeting with his own congressional allies[.]... [SO] Having signally failed in his big speech to convince anyone other than his 'base' that there's any sort of real emergency on the southern border, the president will now simply declare one. It's quite a good fit for Trump's temperament." ...

... Steve M: "So why doesn't Trump just do the declaration? Because, in his gut, he's still the salesman trying to emotionally manipulate his counterparties into doing everything his way. He's also the lout at the end of the bar who'd rather pound his fist (or, in this case, slam his hand on the desk) than push the norms and limits of democratic government. But the deplorables relate to an angry, besieged Trump, possibly more than they'd relate to a dictatorial Trump. This was, in a way, a good day for Trump and his fans. He got to act like [a] bully in an exchange with ABC's Jonathan Karl, to the delight of the deplorables. And he got to have a temper tantrum in his meeting with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.... That's not how a tyrant behaves. That's the behavior of an infantile asshole.... Instead of trying to end this crisis with raw power, he's trying to end it with emotional abuse." --s ...

... Mrs. McCrabbie: You won't be surprised to learn Trump has always been an infantile asshole prone to employing just this same type of emotional abuse:

... Shannon Pettypiece & Margaret Talev of Bloomberg: "... Donald Trump's decision to abruptly storm out of a meeting with congressional leaders on Wednesday shocked some on Capitol Hill. But those who have done business with him recognized it as one of his trademark negotiating tactics. Long before he entered the White House -- where the latest turn on his heel occurred -- Trump was known to have done the same thing when a deal wasn't going his way. He even walked out of a judge's chambers during divorce proceedings." The Democrats he abandoned just made fun of him when he stomped off, but the crude technique seems to have worked for him in the past. ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: Trump is so out of his league. Besides, a "negotiation" depends upon the assumption that both sides want something out of the deal. Trump wants Congress to give him a $5.6BB campaign contribution, and in theory, Pelosi, et al., want Trump's signature on a series of funding bills. But in fact, the longer Trump fiddles while the nation burns, the better chance so many Republicans will come on board the bills many of them have already voted for that the Congress can override Trump's veto.

... Steve M.: Trump "won't rest until he sees this situation as a win. I don't know why he's been hesitant to declare a national emergency -- yes, it's a terrible idea and there's a very good chance he'll be blocked by the courts, but it could be the only face-saving out available to him. The shutdown is likely to continue until he's convinced that he looks like the alpha male again, either with regard to the wall or as a result of some distraction. He'll never just admit defeat and accept the loss."

... "A Wet Fart". Never-Trumper Rick Wilson in The Daily Beast: "From his spurious (see what I did there?) evasion of the Vietnam draft to his serial bankruptcies and business failures, his wrecked marriages, and his current reign of misrule, Donald Trump's ability to detonate a media IED to distract from his troubles has always served him well.... On Tuesday night, Trump's flaming dumpster train of distractions, lies, cons, and empty political promises flew off the rails and plunged into a mountain of burning tires in one of his worst public speeches.... It went over like a wet fart.... The speech can most accurately be seen as the death twitch of The Wall cult.... [T]he idea of a glorious concrete wall from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico is deader than that lemur he glues on his head every morning." --s ...

     ... Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Why, Wilson seems almost disrespectful of the Presidunce*. ...

... Gail Collins: "For every viewer [of Trump's Oval Office fundraiser] whose response to the talk was 'Wow, we should do something about immigration!' there must have been a hundred whose first reaction was 'Why does this man keep sniffing?'... If you watched the address..., you saw a 72-year-old guy squinting at the teleprompter and making rather alarming breathing sounds while reading a speech about how we need a wall to protect women who are 'sexually assaulted on the dangerous trek up through Mexico.' This is not a man who should wrap his arguments around the idea of protecting women from sexual assault." ...

... Julie Davis of the New York Times: "... Democrats are working to focus public attention on the painful costs of the partial government shutdown -- vulnerable families going without food assistance, farmers forgoing crop payments, national parks trashed -- and Mr. Trump's recklessness in courting it, rather than delving into the specific details of erecting a barrier on the southwestern border." ...

... Felicia Sonmez & John Wagner of the Washington Post: "House Democrats passed a bill [Wednesday] that would reopen the Treasury Department and ensure that the Internal Revenue Service would remain funded as tax season kicks off and millions of taxpayers begin to file their returns. Eight House Republicans voted in favor of the bill, defying the president's pleas for unity. But the measure has no path to passage, as Trump has said he opposes any legislation that does not include funding for the border wall. The vote comes on the eve of a visit by Trump to the U.S.-Mexico border." ...

... Laurie McGinley & Joel Achenbach of the Washington Post: "The furloughing of hundreds of Food and Drug Administration inspectors has sharply reduced inspections of the nation's food supply -- one of the many repercussions of the partial government shutdown that are making Americans potentially less safe. The agency, which oversees 80 percent of the food supply, has suspended all routine inspections of domestic food-processing facilities, FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said in an interview. He is working on a plan to bring inspectors back as early as next week to inspect facilities considered high-risk because they handle sensitive items such as seafood, soft cheese and vegetables, or have a history of problems." ...

... Oliver Milman of the Guardian: "The US government shutdown has stymied environmental testing and inspections, prompting warnings that Americans' health is being put at increasing risk as the shutdown drags on. More than 13,000 employees at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are not at work, with just 794 people deemed essential staff currently undertaking the agency's duties. The remaining skeleton staff are able to 'respond to emergencies involving the safety of human life or the protection of property', according to an EPA planning document. But many routine activities such as checks on regulated businesses, clean-ups of toxic superfund sites and the pursuit of criminal polluters have been paused since 28 December. 'State programs aren't being funded, enforcement actions have stopped -- it's a nightmare,' said Gary Morton, president of AFGE Council 238, which represents about 9,000 EPA workers." ...

... Dan Lamothe of the Washington Post: "Employees of the U.S. Coast Guard who are facing a long U.S. government shutdown just received a suggestion: To get by without pay, consider holding a garage sale, babysitting, dog-walking or serving as a 'mystery shopper.'... 'Bankruptcy is a last option,' the document said.... The suggestions were part of a five-page tip sheet published by the Coast Guard Support Program, an employee-assistance arm of the service often known as CG SUPRT.... The Coast Guard receives funding from the Department of Homeland Security and is subjected to the shuttering of parts of the government along with DHS's other agencies. That stands in contrast to other military services, which are part of the Defense Department and have funding.... The Coast Guard removed the tip sheet from the support program's website late Wednesday morning after The Washington Post inquired about it.... Late last month, the Coast Guard announced it had found enough money to pay its service members one last time through the end of the year. The Trump administration took credit afterward, releasing a statement that said the president and some of his staff members had worked 'round the clock' to address the issue.... A bipartisan effort to get the Coast Guard paid through the shutdown was launched in Congress last week, but it isn't clear if or how quickly lawmakers might vote on the proposed 'Pay Our Coast Guard Act.'" Emphasis added for anyone who momentarily forgot those bastids lie about everything. ...

... Shutting Down the Government Is No Excuse for DOJ Delays. Erik Larson of Bloomberg News (Jan. 8): "A U.S. judge overseeing a veteran's multimillion-dollar negligence lawsuit in Puerto Rico rebuked the Justice Department for attempting to use the partial government shutdown to put the case on hold, calling the request 'laughable.' In a ruling denying the government's bid for more time, U.S. District Judge William G. Young said lapses in federal appropriations, like the current one triggered by ... Donald Trump's demand for funding for a border wall with Mexico, aren't a government 'policy' that could theoretically justify staying such a lawsuit. 'Let us talk plain -- they are simply an abdication by the president and the Congress (which could override a presidential veto) of the duty to govern responsibly to the end that all the laws may be faithfully executed,' Young said in the Jan. 2 ruling in San Juan. 'Nor does such a lapse in any way excuse this court from exercising its own constitutional functions.'" ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: Wouldn't it be nice if Mitch McConnell heeded Judge Young's admonition. Alas, the Turtle remains in his shell. ...

... Shutting Down the Government Is AG Nominee Bill Barr's Excuse for Delays. Marianne Levine of Politico: "Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn) said Wednesday that she was unable to get a meeting with Attorney General nominee William Barr before his confirmation hearing next week because of the government shutdown. 'I tried (as did Blumenthal) to get meeting w/AG nominee Barr and was told he couldn't meet until AFTER the hearing,' Klobuchar, a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, tweeted, referencing Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal. 'The reason given? The shutdown.' Klobuchar added that the shutdown didn't prevent Barr from meeting with other senators. Among the senators Barr met with Wednesday were Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and former Committee Chair Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa.) 'This is a 1st for me w/ any nominee as a member of judiciary,' Klobuchar tweeted." More on Barr's courtesy call to Graham linked below.

Junior Likens Migrants to Zoo Animals. Holly Rosenkrantz of CBS News: "Donald Trump Jr. used Instagram Tuesday night to endorse his father's border wall policy, saying the evidence that a wall works is because they protect people from zoo animals. 'You know why you can enjoy a day at the zoo? Because walls work,' Trump Jr., 41, wrote in his Instagram story." Virulent racism is a Trump family trait. ...

... Claudia Koerner of BuzzFeed News: "A gambling site is paying out thousands of dollars to people who correctly bet that ... Donald Trump would tell more than 3.5 lies in his Oval Office address on Tuesday. Bookmaker.eu asked people to wager on the president's truthfulness, offering odds of -145 for more than 3.5 lies and +115 for less than 3.5 lies. That means if a person bet $145 dollars that Trump would lie at least four times, they would win $100. And some people won big. Odds consultant John Lester told BuzzFeed News the site will lose $276,424, with 92% of its bettors correctly wagering that Trump would lie a lot. 'It's a bad day for Truthiness and Bookmaker,' he said. 'We knew we were in trouble early with this one.' The site used the Washington Post's Fact Checker as the arbiter of Trump's truth and lies. The Post's live blog has corrected six statements that Trump made during the televised address seeking a border wall."

... Annals of "Journalism," Ctd.

Margaret Sullivan of the Washington Post: "After Tuesday night's debacle in the Oval Office, television network executives should be spending the day in their spacious offices practicing a simple word: No. No, Mr. President, you may not break into prime-time programming to fundraise and mislead. They'll need to practice because you can be sure that the request will come again.... There was no -- zero -- news in President Trump's address to the nation last night. There were high-drama quotes: 'crisis of the soul.' There was fearmongering: 'I've met with dozens of families whose loved ones were stolen by illegal immigration.'... And all the fact-checking in the world -- worthy as it is -- can't make a dent in the spread of misinformation that such an opportunity gives the president.... As the linguist and author George Lakoff puts it, the news media 'has become complicit with Trump by allowing itself to be used as an amplifier for his falsehoods and frames.'" ...

... "Faux" Reality World. Joe Concha of The Hill: "Fox News host Mark Levin called Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer(D-N.Y.) 'pathological liars' and 'scam artists' late Tuesday night following their response to President Trump's Oval Office address on the border wall...[speaking with] Sean Hannity during an interview." --s

This Russia Thing, Etc., Ctd.

"Collusion Case Closed." Josh Marshall of TPM: "[T]he seemingly accidental redaction error in the Manafort legal filing combined with the news published mid-evening by The New York Times is one of the biggest revelations in more than two years of the Trump/Russia scandal.... [T]hese new revelations combined with earlier reports effectively end the debate about whether there was 'collusion' between Russia and the Trump campaign during the 2016 election. There was. It wasn't marginal. It was happening at the very top of the campaign.... We're not talking about vague conversations in which quid pro quos or campaign cooperation could have happened. It did happen.... How much collusion there was, how deeply Donald Trump was knowingly a part of it, remains to be seen. The fact of collusion is established. Not through some marginal member of the operation but by the man Trump chose to run his campaign." --s ...

... Paul Campos in LG&$: "After the election, Manafort was debriefed by Russian intelligence, as any spy would be in such circumstances. Note that this revelation comes from one failure, intentional or otherwise, to fully redact one document in Mueller's sprawling investigation. How long will the Republican party choose to continue to tolerate the Trump administration's combination of profound corruption and utter incompetence?" ...

... John Schindler of the (New York) Observer: "This looks unmistakably like a clandestine intelligence operation to anyone even marginally acquainted with spycraft. Russian intelligence routinely uses 'former' agents like Kilimnik to gain access to foreigners and their secrets; Kilimnik, when pressed, hardly denied his GRU affiliation.... President Trump's consistent 'no collusion' claims, ailing for months as Mueller's cards are revealed, one by one, are now officially moribund. Manafort has admitted that he was in touch with Kilimnik during and after Trump's presidential run, regarding campaign matters, in what appears to be a clandestine back-channel between Team Trump and the Kremlin. The big open question is how much Donald Trump knew about Manafort's secret dealings with Kilimnik in 2016 and after. Given the president's well-documented micro-managerial ways, plus the fact that he's known Manafort for decades, it's impossible to imagine he was wholly unaware of his own campaign's hush-hush back-channel to Moscow."

... Benjamin Wittes of Lawfare is far more cautious than are Marshall, Campos & Schindler in his analysis of the "tantalizing tidbits": "We will not know what these tidbits mean, if anything, until we see both how Mueller characterizes them and, more particularly, how Mueller situates them against that broader pattern of interactions." ...

... Christal Hayes of USA Today: "Members of President Donald Trump's campaign and transition team had more than 100 contacts with Russian-linked officials, according to a new report. The milestone illustrates the deep ties between members of Trump's circle and the Kremlin.... The organizations counted each meeting and message as a separate contact." --s ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: You could cook up a plausibly "innocent" explanation for almost every one of these contacts, and lord knows the participants have tried. But there is no innocent explanation for 100 contacts.

Nico Hines of The Daily Beast: "Cambridge Analytica has been found guilty of breaking data laws after refusing to disclose how much information it holds on an American professor, where it got the data, and -- perhaps most importantly -- how it used it and who it gave it to." --s

Katelyn Polantz & Laura Robinson of CNN: "One law firm involved in a foreign government-owned company's challenge of a mysterious grand jury subpoena related to the Robert Mueller investigation is Alston & Bird..., a firm that has previously represented Russian interests, including working for a Russian oligarch and a contractor of the Russian government. CNN's reporting of the law firm's identity is among the first details revealed about a case that's progressed to the Supreme Court under extreme secrecy. The identity of the foreign government and the company has been a closely held secret, and after several setbacks in court, the company may be forced to give the special counsel's office information or face a steep financial penalty."

Senator Russkie Turncoat. Martin Cizmar of RawStory: "On Wednesday morning on CNN, Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) defended Manafort's meeting with the Russian spy by arguing that Manafort, who had worked on behalf of a pro-Russian political party in Ukraine, had known the spy for many years and that there was nothing odd about a presidential campaign sharing confidential campaign polling data with a foreign adversary." With video --s

Pete Williams & Allan Smith of NBC News: "Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who had been overseeing the special counsel investigation, plans to step down after Robert Mueller finishes his work, according to administration officials familiar with his thinking. A source close to Rosenstein said he intends to stay on until Mueller's investigative and prosecutorial work is done. The source said that would mean Rosenstein would remain until early March. Several legal sources have said they expect the Mueller team to conclude its work by mid-to-late February, although they said that timeline could change based on unforeseen investigative developments. The source said once Mueller's work is done, the special counsel's report to the Justice Department would follow a few weeks later, and Rosenstein would likely be gone by then. But others familiar with his thinking said there's no firm timeline and that Rosenstein would work out a departure plan once the new attorney general is confirmed and on board." ...

     ... Mrs McCrabbie: If this version of the Rosenstein Early Retirement Plan is accurate, it's a BFD. Not only will Mueller be somewhat protected, but also he will finish at least some significant parts of his investigation within a month or two. ...

... Matt Naham of Law & Crime: "Theoretically, the report that Rosenstein will step down in the coming weeks and the report that he will only step down once Mueller submits a report do not necessarily contradict one another. Remember: both Bloomberg News and NBC News have predicted that Mueller will submit a Russia report in February." ...

... Andrew Prokop of Vox: William "Barr's nomination [to the AG spot] appeared to raise serious questions about the Mueller investigation's future. Back in May (months before Trump nominated him), Barr wrote a 19-page memo harshly criticizing Mueller's investigation, particularly with regards to the special counsel's reported focus on obstruction of justice and efforts to subpoena or question the president.... Hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee kick off on Tuesday, and he'll surely be grilled about the memo he wrote last year criticizing Mueller and questioned about whether he'd let the investigation continue." Prokop's report provides a handy summary of Rod Rosenstein's tenure, vis-a-vis the Trump corruption investigations. ...

... Mary Jalonick of the AP: "The new chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee said attorney general nominee William Barr has confidence in special counsel Robert Mueller and will let him complete his Russia investigation. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said after meeting with Barr, who led the Justice Department under President George H.W. Bush, that Barr has a 'high opinion' of Mueller. Barr was spending most of Wednesday on Capitol Hill, meeting senators on the committee before his confirmation hearing next week. 'He had absolutely no indication he was going to tell Bob Mueller what to do or how to do it,' Graham said Wednesday.... Graham said that the two men were 'best friends,' that their wives attended Bible study together and that Mueller had attended the weddings of Barr's children.... Graham listed a number of questions that he had put to Barr: 'I asked Mr. Barr directly, "Do you think Mr. Mueller is on a witch hunt?" He said no. "Do you think he would be fair to the president and the country as a whole?" He said yes. "And do you see any reason for Mr. Mueller's investigation to be stopped?" He said no. "Do you see any reason for a termination based on cause?" He said no. "Are you committed to making sure Mr. Mueller can finish his job?" "Yes."'" ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: I find Graham's assurances as reassuring as Donald Trump's claim that he could be "very presidential."

Benjamin Siegel of ABC News: "The new Democratic chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Rep. Jerry Nadler of New York, is readying a subpoena to compel acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker to testify later this month, a move that could become one of the first investigative actions of the new House majority that's promised closer oversight of the Trump administration. 'We're preparing the subpoena,' Nadler told ABC News. The order could be issued within days if Whitaker and committee Democrats can't reach an agreement on a hearing date before January 29, when ... Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Capitol Hill for his State of the Union address."

Dan Spinelli of Mother Jones: "President Donald Trump's tenuous relationship with the military he commands took another awkward turn last week when he ordered the Pentagon to block the publication of independent reports that have been harshly critical of reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. Over the past 11 years, SIGAR has probed the management of the more than $130 billion spent in Afghanistan.... By its own estimation, the office has recovered more than $951 million from fines and settlements. Its most recent report, released in October, contained the startling conclusion that Afghan government forces now control the least amount of territory of any point in the past three years." --s

Nasser Karimi & Jon Gambrell of the AP: "Iran confirmed it is holding U.S. Navy veteran Michael R. White at a prison in the country, making him the first American known to be detained under ... Donald Trump's administration. White's detention adds new pressure to the rising tension between Iran and the U.S., which under Trump has pursued a maximalist campaign against Tehran that includes pulling out of its nuclear deal with world powers. Although the circumstances of White's detention remain unclear, Iran in the past has used its detention of Westerners and dual nationals as leverage in negotiations." ...

... Reuters: "U.S. sanctions are putting unprecedented pressure on Iranians while 'first class idiots' are running Washington's policy, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday." --s

** David Jackson of USA Today: "... Donald Trump on Wednesday again threatened to cut off federal [FEMA] funds to fight California wildfires, saying the money is being wasted. 'Billions of dollars are sent to the State of California for Forest fires that, with proper Forest Management, would never happen,' Trump tweeted. 'Unless they get their act together, which is unlikely, I have ordered FEMA to send no more money. It is a disgraceful situation in lives & money!' House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., responded that Trump's threat 'insults the memory of scores of Americans who perished in wildfires last year & thousands more who lost their homes.' Pelosi's tweet said House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, another Californian, 'must join me to condemn & call on POTUS to reassure millions in CA that our govt will be there for them in their time of need.'" Thanks to Akhilleus for the link. See his commentary below. ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: This really is astounding: punishing Americans for political reasons & for the reason of his own ignorance. In fact, I suspect that Trump is wilfully ignorant: continuing to push disproved/hilariously-mocked forest "management" theories gives him a fake excuse to exact political retribution: Somebody over there in the House add this to your long list of proposed articles of impeachment.

Justice For Sale. Sam Stein & Lachlan Markey of The Daily Beast: "In the summer of 2017, the Trump White House asked for a meeting with a top official at the Department of Justice to discuss a sensitive legal and administrative matter involving a top Republican donor. The donor, then-Republican National Committee finance chairman and casino magnate Steve Wynn, was embroiled in litigation involving Obama-era rules governing how companies could distribute tips gathered by their employees. Months after the meeting request, the Trump administration revised those rules to make them far friendlier to employers. It is unclear why the White House made the request for the meeting with acting Solicitor General Jeff Wall, which was uncovered in a Freedom of Information Act ... and has not been previously reported." --s

Max Rivlin-Nadler of The Intercept: "[M]ore than 1,000 pages of previously unseen Customs and Border Protection training documents ... were obtained by the American Civil Liberties Union after a four-year legal battle and shared exclusively with The Intercept.... What’s included in the documents ... is a portrait of an agency that acknowledges that citizens and noncitizens alike are covered by the Fourth Amendment, which protects against unreasonable searches and seizures, while also instructing officers on expansive ways to circumvent it." Includes documents. --s

"Swamp Creatures," Ctd. David Dayen of The Intercept: "Republican Jon Kyl, whose second Senate tenure concluded on December 31 [after serving as John McCain's replacement], is keeping secret nine clients he advised while working at a powerful corporate lobbying and law firm [Covington & Burling] in 2017 and 2018. Kyl was supposed to reveal the clients in his mandatory Senate financial disclosure, but he cited a D.C. bar rule to keep them confidential.... On Monday, Covington & Burling announced that Kyl would return to his lobbying job, swinging through the revolving door only one week after leaving the Senate.... Kyl's annual disclosure was due September 28, a few weeks after he was sworn in. But he got a 90-day extension, and he waited until the last possible day, January 3, to file the form. By this time, he had left the Senate and was replaced by Martha McSally. It's unclear whether anyone in government will now demand that Kyl release the names of the clients. However, some experts believe the public has a right to know...." --s

"Swamp Creatures," Ctd. Dan Friedman of Mother Jones: "Two lobbyists [Nick Muzin..., a former top aide to Sen. Ted Cruz..., and Joey Allaham,] known for helping Qatar curry favor among allies of President Donald Trump, received nearly $4 million from a mysterious PR firm that appears to be tied to the Qatari government -- another indication that a shadow war in the Middle East has taken root in the DC swamp with little oversight.... The filings were submitted more than a year after they say the work had started. Justice Department rules require foreign lobbying to be reported within 10 days of signing a contract or performing work." --s

Election 2018. North Carolina. Frank Dale of ThinkProgress: "Despite making numerous baseless claims about voter fraud over the years, President Donald Trump has remained silent on the contested congressional race in North Carolina's 9th district, where allegations of election fraud centering around a Republican operative have prevented the state from certifying results. But Mark Harris --— the Republican candidate who was thought to have won a narrow victory over Democrat Dan McCready before his campaign's connections to [felonious fraudster] Leslie McCrae Dowless Jr. came to light -- revealed on Tuesday [in an interview] that Trump has encouraged him to 'stand and fight.'... Harris' interview occurred less than 24 hours after he reportedly set off a fire alarm and ran away from reporters, which he apologized for Tuesday." Emphasis mine --s

Presidential Election 2020. Jessica Taylor of NPR: "California billionaire Tom Steyer confirms to NPR that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2020, instead putting even more muscle behind his efforts to impeach President Trump. 'This is the biggest issue in American politics today,' Steyer said of impeachment efforts. 'We have a lawless president in the White House who is eroding our democracy and it is only going to get worse.'"

Presidential Election 2016. Alex Thompson of Politico: "On the final night of the Democratic National Convention in July of 2016, Bernie Sanders' staffers went out to a Mediterranean restaurant ... to celebrate and mourn the end of the campaign.... Sometime after midnight, convention floor leader Robert Becker ... told [a] 20-something woman [staffer who had reported to him] that he had always wanted to have sex with her and made a reference to riding his 'pole,' according to the woman and three other people who witnessed what happened or were told about it shortly afterward by people who did. Later in the night, Becker ... forcibly kissed her, putting his tongue in her mouth as he held her, the woman and other sources said. The woman did not formally report the incident at the time because the campaign was over."

Terry Gross of NPR: "There are countless presidential scandals in U.S. history, but very few of them have resulted in resignation or impeachment -- which is precisely why MSNBC host Rachel Maddow was drawn to the story of Spiro Agnew, Richard Nixon's first vice president, who resigned in 1973.... Maddow and her former producer Mike Yarvitz created the podcast Bag Man to revisit Agnew's story. Though his resignation was officially linked to tax evasion, they say that Agnew had engaged in bribery that dated to the early 1960s, when, as Baltimore County executive, he demanded kickbacks in exchange for local engineering or architecture contracts. He continued the practice even after being elected governor of Maryland in 1967 and then vice president in 1969." ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: I happened to catch a good portion of Gross's program yesterday, and it was fascinating, particularly in light of the Trump clusterfuck. Really. I intend to listen to Maddow's podcast, which you can (probably) access via the link above (I got there via Google Play). I do hope Bush I fanboy Jon Meacham happened to have the radio on yesterday afternoon. The part about Poppy will burst "historian" Jon-boy's bubble.

Beyond the Beltway

Texas. Alex Samuels of the Texas Tribune: "Shahid Shafi identifies as a Republican because of his firm belief in small government, lower taxes and secure borders. But his commitment to core GOP values hasn't shielded him from ire within his own party. A group of Tarrant County Republicans will vote Thursday evening on whether to remove Shafi as vice-chairman of the county party after a small faction of members put forth a formal motion to oust him because he's Muslim. Those in favor of the motion to recall Shafi, a trauma surgeon and member of the Southlake City Council, have said he doesn't represent all Tarrant County Republicans. They've also said Islamic ideologies run counter to the U.S. Constitution -- an assertion many Texas GOP officials have called bigoted and Shafi himself has vehemently denied." ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: Sorry, Doc; you get to be a decent person or a Republican. It's an either/or choice. You can't be both. And you should have been smart enough to figure that out before you threw in your lot with the Party of Ignorant Bigots.

Way Beyond

Congo. Jason Burke of the Guardian: "Felix Tshisekedi, the leader of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's main opposition party, has been declared the surprise winner of the 30 December presidential election in the vast central African country. The result, announced early on Thursday, means the first electoral transfer of power in 59 years of independence in the DRC. It will come as a shock to many observers who believed authorities would ensure that the government candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, would be the victor in the polls ... hand-picked by outgoing president Joseph Kabila to succeed him.... [P]re-election ... polls had put [opposition frontrunner and respected former business executive Martin] Fayulu on 47%, at least 20 points ahead of Tshisekedi. Vote tallies compiled by the DRC's Catholic church found Fayulu clearly won the election, two diplomats told Reuters, raising the spectre of protests that many fear could lead to violence. Fayulu's supporters feared Kabila would rig the vote in favour of his hand-picked candidate, or do a power-sharing deal with Tshisekedi[.]" --s

The Commentariat -- January 9, 2019

Old Dog, Old Tricks. Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Trump doubled down on one of the biggest gambles of his presidency on Tuesday night with a televised appeal to pressure Congress into paying for his long-promised border wall, even at the cost of leaving the government partly closed until lawmakers give in.... In a nine-minute speech that made no new arguments but included multiple misleading assertions, the president sought to recast the situation at the Mexican border as a 'humanitarian crisis' and opted against declaring a national emergency to bypass Congress, which he had threatened to do, at least for now. But he excoriated Democrats for blocking the wall, accusing them of hypocrisy and exposing the country to criminal immigrants.... In an off-the-record lunch with television anchors hours before the address, he made clear in blunt terms that he was not inclined to give the speech or go to Texas, but was talked into it by advisers.... 'It's not going to change a damn thing, but I'm still doing it,' Mr. Trump said of the border visit, according to one of the people, who was in the room. The trip was merely a photo opportunity, he said. 'But,' he added, gesturing at his communications aides Bill Shine, Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Kellyanne Conway, 'these people behind you say it's worth it.'... In their own televised response on Tuesday night, Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senator Chuck Schumer of New York ... accused the president of stoking fear and mocked him for asking taxpayers to foot the bill for a wall he had long said Mexico would pay for." ...

     ... Steve M.: "... why did Trump decide to go through with the speech and the border visit if he thinks it's all futile? I think it's because he knows he's losing -- and, by definition, that can't be his fault.... There's no way he's losing because of something he did! So he chose to follow recommendations he thinks will fail so he can blame the entire debacle on his press shop." ...

     ... Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: As Akhilleus wrote in commentary below, "He came across like a hostage squinting into a camera in a dark room, trying to read a prepared text and making it sound believable." As it turns out, according to Peter Baker's reporting, Trump actually felt his press aides were holding him hostage. Trump really hates having to act presidenty. He hates the job. That's why he mostly doesn't do it. There are only two possible reasons he's running for re-election: (1) to make money (for instance, he ran a fundraising scam off the Oval Office address, pretending the contributions were going to "the Official Secure the Border Fund" when they would actually go to his campaign); (2) to stay out of jail (a sitting president probably can't be cuffed & perp-walked).

... Here are transcripts of Trump's speech & Pelosi & Schumer's response, as prepared by the New York Times. ...

... Stephen Colbert reacts to Trump's speech. Colbert taped the response several hours before Trump's 9 pm ET live speech. That would seem to be a glitch, but not a fatal one, it turns out:

... BTW, if you want to watch a puffy-eyed old plump guy practice teleprompter-reading, here's your chance. ...

... New York Times reporters also fact-checked both speech & response. Funny, but they had a whole bunch of "false" & "needs context" checks for Trump & only one "needs context" check for Pelosi/Schumer, a "check" which essentially agrees with Schumer's remark. Mrs. McC: Also, there's a sweet AP photo with the caption, "A Border Patrol agent helped a family after they crossed a section of a border fence in San Diego." ...

... Mrs. McCrabbie: Here is a remarkable thing to behold:

     ... I see two things going on here. (1) Fox "News"'s Shep Smith & Chris Wallace brutally fact-check Trump. (2) Trump appeared on the teevee during Sean Hannity's time slot. But instead of having Hannity do fawning commentary, Fox "News" booked Smith & Wallace, its only two regular hosts willing to rap Trump. I won't go so far as to suggest the Fox has a new coat, but it's certainly looking in the shop window at furs of a hue less orange. This is as "fair & balanced" as Fox has been since Megyn Kelly marched Karl Rove down the hall to the vote analysts' "decision desk" on election night 2012. ...

... Gabriel Sherman of Vanity Fair: The "wall-fence-barrier ... [is] the president's personal Alamo. Inside the West Wing, Trump has told aides he's prepared to stake his presidency on making a last stand. 'He has convinced himself he can't win re-election in 2020 unless he gets a lot of the wall built. It;s fundamental to his id,' a former West Wing official said. 'The problem is, the Democrats know that.' Trump's aides fear he has given himself no way out. 'The president put himself in a box,' the former official ... told me. 'The problem is there's no endgame....' Another prominent Republican close to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell described Trump's handling of the shutdown as 'total fucking chaos.'" ...

... Elliot Hannon of Slate: "The entirety of Trump's speech was a reminder that he's not very good at making the case for something or explaining anything, his only effective rhetorical and political tool is scaring the bejesus out of people. If he's not trying to terrify you, it's probably not working.... It was a speech so unpersuasive and likely self-defeating that it didn't need much of a response, but Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi offered one up anyway. Standing awkwardly close on a single podium that smacked of a Saturday Night Live skit, neither Democrat was able to emphatically dunk on Trump's nonsense." ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: Hannon does suggest that Trump made an effort to connect with bleeding-heart liberals: "This is a humanitarian crisis. A crisis of the heart, and a crisis of the soul.... [Migrant] children are used as human pawns by vicious coyotes and ruthless gangs. One in three women are sexually assaulted on the dangerous trek up through Mexico. Women and children are the biggest victims, by far, of our broken system. This is the tragic reality of illegal immigration on our southern border. This is the cycle of human suffering that I am determined to end," Trump said. Hannon, for some reason, is unpersuaded of Trump's sincerity: "The president is concerned about the migrant women and children? The humanitarian pump fake surely isn't fooling anyone that doesn't want to be fooled at this point. It also undermines the emergency powers argument." ...

... Eric Lach of the New Yorker: "In the ten or so minutes that he spent giving an address from the Oval Office on Tuesday, President Trump ran through a litany of talking points, some deceptive, some contradictory, some vacuous, some diversionary. He did not have a single argument for why he decided, last month, to shut down the government over border-wall money.... Trump also made uncharacteristic appeals to empathy, saying that he was determined to end 'the cycle of human suffering' at the border. But he has spent too many years demagoguing about migrants to claim to care for them now." ...

... Jonathan Chait: "In place of cogent policy arguments, Trump substituted his familiar about immigrants rampaging the countryside to commit a series of grisly crimes against law-abiding Americans.... He devoted almost no effort to securing wall funds during the two years when his party enjoyed full control of government (during which he might have leveraged Republican desperation for corporate tax cuts to force them to fund his wall).... Trump shut the government down in an impulsive fit, failing to anticipate either the pain the shutdown would create nor any strategy for escaping it.... It's unlikely even a highly articulate, popular president could escape the mess Trump has created for himself." ...

... Pomp & No Circumstance. Annie Karni & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "President Trump has invited representatives from cable and broadcast news channels to an off-the-record lunch at the White House ahead of his prime time speech Tuesday night, an address in which he is expected to frame his demand for border wall funding as a response to a national security and humanitarian crisis.... The president appears to be preparing for the event as if he is delivering a miniature State of the Union message -- typically, television anchors meet with the president over lunch ahead of his annual address to Congress." (Also linked yesterday.)

John Wagner & Mike DeBonis of the Washington Post: "Vice President Pence argued Tuesday that the United States is facing an 'undeniable crisis' at its southern border and urged Democrats to negotiate an end to the impasse over President Trump's demand for border wall funding that has led to a partial government shutdown. Pence appeared on three network morning shows, offering a preview of a prime-time address from the Oval Office planned by Trump on Tuesday night in a bid to gain leverage, with the shutdown now in its third week. Democrats announced that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) would deliver a joint response. During his interviews, Pence did not rule out the possibility that Trump would declare a national emergency that could empower him to construct a border wall without congressional approval. But the vice president said repeatedly that the administration is seeking a negotiated solution with Congress." (Also linked yesterday.) ...

... Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "The vice president avoided direct answers to questions from ABC and others about repeated misstatements from Trump and others that overstate the national security threat at the border.... 'How can the American people trust the president when he says this is a crisis, when he says things over and over again that aren't true?' [Jonathan] Karl [of ABC News] asked. 'Well, look, the American people aren't as concerned about the political debate as they are concerned about what's really happening at the border,' Pence responded. The vice president also repeated Trump's misleading insistence that a renegotiated free trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada fulfills to his campaign promise that Mexico would pay for a border wall, arguing that the new deal is structured 'in a way that it will benefit the United States in jobs and tax revenues.' Fact checkers have rated those claims false, even if the deal had been ratified and gone into effect, which it has not." (Also linked yesterday.) ...

... Kate Smith of CBS News: "Nine congressional representatives serve the districts that line the 2,000-mile southern border. They are men, women, freshman politicians and Washington veterans. The Democrats among them span liberal ideologies, while one of them is a Republican. But they all have one thing in common: each is against ... Donald Trump's border wall." ...

... Chris Kahn of Reuters: "A growing proportion of Americans blame ... Donald Trump for a partial government shutdown that will cut off paychecks to federal workers this week, though Republicans mostly support his refusal to approve a budget without taxpayer dollars for the U.S.-Mexico border wall, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday." ...

Pilar Melendez & Julia Arciga of the Daily Beast: "Airport security screeners forced to work without pay during the government shutdown have been calling out sick. But now the mad-as-hell workers are actually quitting their jobs. That's according to union officials representing Transportation Security Administration officers, who will miss their first paycheck since the government ground to a halt Dec. 22 over a budget and border wall impasse.... Hydrick Thomas, head of the American Federation of Government Employees' TSA Council, said in a statement Tuesday[,] 'The loss of officers, while we're already shorthanded, will create a massive security risk for American travelers since we don't have enough trainees in the pipeline or the ability to process new hires.'"

This Russia Thing, Etc., Ctd.

Sharon LaFraniere & Ken Vogel of the New York Times: "Paul Manafort shared Trump campaign polling data with an associate tied to Russian intelligence during the 2016 campaign, prosecutors alleged, according to a court filing unsealed on Tuesday. The accusations came to light in a document filed by Mr. Manafort's defense lawyers that was supposed to be partly blacked out but contained a formatting error that accidentally revealed the information.... In one portion of the filing that Mr. Manafort's lawyers tried to redact, they instead also revealed that Mr. Manafort 'may have discussed a Ukraine peace plan' with the Russian associate, Konstantin V. Kilimnik, 'on more than one occasion.' Investigators have been questioning witnesses about whether Russia tried to influence the Trump administration to broker a resolution to hostilities between Russia and Ukraine." (Also linked yesterday.) ...

     ... The Campaign in Spain Paul Plainly Can't Explain. Mrs. McCrabbie: Accoding to Manafort's spokesperson, Manafort flew to Madrid to meet with Kilimnik in January or February 2017, after Trump was elected & months after Trump fired him. The idea that he went to share "polling data" at that time doesn't make sense, so surely he shared the polling data, which one has to assume was internal, while the campaign was ongoing, likely during a meeting between the two in the U.S. ...

... Jonathan Chait: "Why was Trump's campaign manager sharing polling data with a Russian intelligence agent?... One question about Russian social-media messages, and a key potential avenue for collusion between Trump's campaign and Moscow, is how Russia targeted its messaging so precisely. The Russians may have studied the American electorate closely on their own. But it seems more likely that they tapped their contacts for data to help them figure out what messages to use, and where. The New York Times reports that Manafort asked Kilimnik to pass on the polling data to [magnate Oleg] Deripaska (which means to the Russian government.) It also reports that most of the data was public but some of it 'was developed by a private polling firm working for the campaign.'" ...

... Nancy LeTourneau of the Washington Monthly: "... meeting with a Russian agent in Madrid comes pretty close to evidence of a conspiracy that was being managed by Trump's then campaign chairman.... According to his lawyers, Manafort shared polling data about the 2016 presidential race with Kilimnik.... Manafort also conceded that he discussed a Ukraine peace plan with Kilimnick. This would obviously be the one he's referring to: 'A week before Michael T. Flynn resigned as national security adviser, a sealed proposal was hand-delivered to his office, outlining a way for President Trump to lift sanctions against Russia.... But the proposal contains more than just a peace plan. Andrii V. Artemenko, the Ukrainian lawmaker..., claims to have evidence ... showing corruption by the Ukrainian president, Petro O. Poroshenko, that could help oust him. And Mr. Artemenko said he had received encouragement for his plans from top aides to Mr. Putin.' What we have is a meeting in Madrid between Trump's campaign manager and a Russian agent in which the discussion included ... a plan cooked up by [Trump associate Felix] Sater and Artemenko for the Ukrainian president to be blackmailed into resigning, allowing President Trump to lift sanctions against Russia. Stay tuned...." ...

... digby: "... there are a lot of facts that we know nothing of in this case and it certainly implies that there is a major conspiracy case surrounding Manafort tied directly to the Trump campaign."

Devlin Barrett & Matt Zapotosky of the Washington Post: "A Russian lawyer whose role at a 2016 meeting at Trump Tower has come under scrutiny from special counsel Robert S. Mueller III was charged Tuesday in a separate case with obstructing justice in a money-laundering investigation. Natalia Veselnitskaya became a central figure in the Mueller probe when it was revealed that in June 2016, she met with Donald Trump Jr., after an intermediary indicated she had dirt on Hillary Clinton. But the charges unsealed Tuesday say she made a 'misleading declaration' to the court in a civil case. Veselnitskaya ... represented Prevezon Holdings in a civil case in which the U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan sought millions of dollars in forfeiture from the company and others. The department had alleged in a civil complaint that a Russian criminal organization ran an elaborate tax refund scheme.... Those involved made about $230 million in tax refunds, prosecutors said, and filtered the money through shell companies and eventually into Prevezon, a Cyprus-based real estate corporation. Prevezon, prosecutors said, laundered the funds into real estate, including by investing in high end commercial property and luxury apartments in Manhattan. The parent company of the victim firms hired attorneys to investigate after learning of the sham lawsuits, including Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, and they uncovered the fraud scheme, in which Russian government officials were complicit, prosecutors said." (Also linked yesterday.) ...

     ... Mrs. McC: Hmmm, "luxury apartments in Manhattan." Do you suppose any of said "luxury apartments" was sold by "Individual A"? ...

... Benjamin Weiser of the New York Times: "... a federal indictment returned in Manhattan seemed to confirm that Ms. Veselnitskaya had deep ties to senior Russian government officials.... Ms. Veselnitskaya, 43, is believed to be in Russia.... The new indictment again raises questions about whom Ms. Veselnitskaya was representing when she met with Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort and others at Trump Tower in Manhattan during the campaign." Includes a facsimile of the indictment. (Also linked yesterday.)

Josh Gerstein of Politico: "The Supreme Court has declined to intervene in a mysterious subpoena fight that apparently involved an unidentified foreign-government-owned company and special counsel Robert Mueller. Last month, the unknown firm asked the high court to block a federal judge's contempt order and $50,000-a-day penalty for refusing to comply with the subpoena, arguing that the company is immune from U.S. grand jury subpoenas. The company also insisted that complying with the subpoena would violate the law in the firm's home country. But on Tuesday, the Supreme Court turned down the company's request to step into the dispute, at least for now.... The high court did indicate that [CJ] Roberts referred the issue to the full court and that the short-term stay he ordered last month was now dissolved. Many details about the case have been shrouded in secrecy." ...

     ... Amy Howe of ScotusBlog: "Just a few hours after the unnamed corporation appealed to the Supreme Court, the justices denied the company's request to put the lower court's order requiring it to provide the information or pay penalties on hold. The justices also vacated the temporary stay that Chief Justice John Roberts had imposed on December 23. There were no recorded dissents from the order, and no explanation for the ruling. However, one factor in the decision whether to grant such a request is whether there is a 'reasonable probability' that at least four justices will vote to grant review, and another is whether there is a 'fair prospect' that at least five justices will agree that the decision below was wrong. Taken together, these factors suggest that the unidentified corporation could face an uphill battle in getting the Supreme Court to take up its case and reverse the D.C. Circuit's decision."

** Pierre Thomas, et al., of ABC News: "Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein is expected to leave his role in the coming weeks, multiple sources familiar with his plans told ABC News. Rosenstein has communicated to ... Donald Trump and White House officials his plan to depart the administration around the time William Barr, Trump's nominee for attorney general, would take office following a Senate confirmation. Sources told ABC News Rosenstein wants to ensure a smooth transition to his successor and would accommodate the needs of Barr, should he be confirmed. Rosenstein apparently had long been thinking he would serve about two years, and there was no indication that he was being forced out at this moment by the president.... Like other senior leaders within the Justice Department, Rosenstein became a frequent target of Trump's on Twitter, with the president recently re-posting an image of Rosenstein and others behind bars."

A Racist White House Response to a Charge of Racism. Eugene Scott of the Washington Post marvels at the White House's response after Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez answered in the affirmative when Anderson Cooper asked her if President* Trump was a racist. The White House hit back against AOC's "sheer ignorance on the matter," and asserted that Trump has "repeatedly condemned racism and bigotry in all forms." Because, um, a woman of color, when contrasted with President* Whitey-White, is comparatively an ignoramus on the issue of racism (or anything). And, as Scott writes, "The president 'repeatedly condemning' racism, as the White House claims, is pointless when one of the main promoters of that bigotry is perceived to be Trump himself."

Carlotta Gall of the New York Times: "President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey denounced the White House national security adviser John R. Bolton for comments he made ahead of his arrival in the Turkish capital and refused to meet him on Tuesday, making any agreement between the two NATO partners over a United States withdrawal from Syria increasingly difficult. Mr. Erdogan said Mr. Bolton had made a 'grave mistake' when he said that Turkey must agree to protect Syria's Kurds in the event of an American withdrawal.... Mr. Bolton was in Ankara, the Turkish capital, on Tuesday for meetings with his national security counterpart Ibrahim Kalin but left after he was denied a meeting with Mr. Erdogan, the pro-government English-language newspaper Daily Sabah reported." (Also linked yesterday.) ...

... Elizabeth McLaughlin & Conor Finnegan of ABC News: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has stopped in Iraq during a tour of the Mideast, according to local TV reports. The unannounced visit on Wednesday comes as Pompeo is meeting with allies in the region to discuss conflicting statements from ... Donald Trump and U.S. officials on an announced withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, according to the Associated Press."

Dissing Our Friends. Steven Erlanger of the New York Times: "The Trump administration downgraded the diplomatic status of the European Union's delegation to the United States last year without making a formal announcement or informing the bloc about the change, a European official said on Tuesday. After protest from Brussels and discussion between the European Union and the Trump administration, the reclassification of the delegation and the consequent demotion of the ambassador, David O'Sullivan, is understood to have been reversed, at least temporarily, the official said. Mr. Trump has been critical of multilateral institutions, and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, delivered a provocative speech in Brussels on Dec. 4 in which he questioned the value of multinational organizations and institutions like the United Nations and the European Union." (Also linked yesterday.)

Russ Choma & Rebecca Leber of Mother Jones: "When Mother Jones first reported in December 2017 that the Environmental Protection Agency had hired a hyperpartisan GOP opposition research firm [Definers Public Affairs] known for its aggressive tactics to handle the agency's news-clipping work, the politically appointed flacks in the agency's press office insisted the decision was about saving money and that the hiring had been handled through normal procurement channels.... Now, thanks to another batch of internal emails, we have even more evidence that the motivation for hiring Definers came from the top agency political appointees who were ticked off at the old service because it was collecting too many news clips that portrayed then-EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt negatively." --s (Also linked yesterday.)

Darren Samuelsohn & Rachel Bade of Politico: "The Justice Department is trying to delay acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker from delivering testimony to the new Democratic-led House until next month, potentially pushing his high-profile appearance until after a permanent replacement has already been confirmed, according to two sources familiar with the situation. Whitaker had initially committed to Democratic leaders that he'd give testimony in January to the House Judiciary Committee. But those plans have since stalled, with Justice Department officials citing the ongoing government shutdown and Whitaker's busy travel schedule as reasons for pushing back the hearing, the sources said." (Also linked yesterday.)

Sheryl Stolberg of the New York Times: "Emboldened House Democrats, seeking a politically charged debate on gun control, unveiled legislation on Tuesday to expand background checks to nearly all firearms purchases, a move timed to mark the eighth anniversary of the mass shooting in Arizona that nearly killed former Representative Gabrielle Giffords. By introducing the measure less than one week after taking control of the House, Democrats are signaling that it is a top priority. A vote could come within the first 100 days of the new Congress. The measure, and a companion bill introduced Tuesday in the Senate, also reflects the changing politics around gun laws, an issue many Democrats once shied away from.... Polls have shown that a vast majority of Americans -- by some estimates, 90 percent -- support universal background checks for all gun purchases.... The National Rifle Association opposed the measure."

Brad Plumer of the New York Times: "America's carbon dioxide emissions rose by 3.4 percent in 2018, the biggest increase in eight years, according to a preliminary estimate published Tuesday. Strikingly, the sharp uptick in emissions occurred even as a near-record number of coal plants around the United States retired last year, illustrating how difficult it could be for the country to make further progress on climate change in the years to come, particularly as the Trump administration pushes to roll back federal regulations that limit greenhouse gas emissions."

Beyond the Beltway

David Goodman of the New York Times: "New York City will spend at least $100 million to ensure that undocumented immigrants and others who cannot qualify for insurance can receive medical treatment, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on Tuesday morning, seeking to insert a city policy into two contentious national debates.... NYC Care would be a mix of insurance and direct spending, and Mr. de Blasio said it would take about two years to get up and running. The city already has a kind of public option for health insurance for low-income New Yorkers, through an insurance plan ... [called] MetroPlus."

The Commentariat -- January 8, 2019

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

Sharon LaFraniere & Ken Vogel of the New York Times: "Paul Manafort shared Trump campaign polling data with an associate tied to Russian intelligence during the 2016 campaign, prosecutors alleged, according to a court filing unsealed on Tuesday. The accusations came to light in a document filed by Mr. Manafort's defense lawyers that was supposed to be partly blacked out but contained a formatting error that accidentally revealed the information.... In one portion of the filing that Mr. Manafort's lawyers tried to redact, they instead also revealed that Mr. Manafort 'may have discussed a Ukraine peace plan' with the Russian associate, Konstantin V. Kilimnik, 'on more than one occasion.' Investigators have been questioning witnesses about whether Russia tried to influence the Trump administration to broker a resolution to hostilities between Russia and Ukraine."

Pomp & No Circumstance. Annie Karni & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "President Trump has invited representatives from cable and broadcast news channels to an off-the-record lunch at the White House ahead of his prime time speech Tuesday night, an address in which he is expected to frame his deman for border wall funding as a response to a national security and humanitarian crisis.... The president appears to be preparing for the event as if he is delivering a miniature State of the Union message -- typically, television anchors meet with the president over lunch ahead of his annual address to Congress."

Carlotta Gall of the New York Times: "President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey denounced the White House national security adviser John R. Bolton for comments he made ahead of his arrival in the Turkish capital and refused to meet him on Tuesday, making any agreement between the two NATO partners over a United States withdrawal from Syria increasingly difficult. Mr. Erdogan said Mr. Bolton had made a 'grave mistake' when he said that Turkey must agree to protect Syria's Kurds in the event of an American withdrawal.... Mr. Bolton was in Ankara, the Turkish capital, on Tuesday for meetings with his national security counterpart Ibrahim Kalin but left after he was denied a meeting with Mr. Erdogan, the pro-government English-language newspaper Daily Sabah reported."

Russ Choma & Rebecca Leber of Mother Jones: "When Mother Jones first reported in December 2017 that the Environmental Protection Agency had hired a hyperpartisan GOP opposition research firm [Definers Public Affairs] known for its aggressive tactics to handle the agency]s news-clipping work, the politically appointed flacks in the agency's press office insisted the decision was about saving money and that the hiring had been handled through normal procurement channels.... Now, thanks to another batch of internal emails, we have even more evidence that the motivation for hiring Definers came from the top agency political appointees who were ticked off at the old service because it was collecting too many news clips that portrayed then-EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt negatively." --s

John Wagner & Mike DeBonis of the Washington Post: "Vice President Pence argued Tuesday that the United States is facing an 'undeniable crisis' at its southern border and urged Democrats to negotiate an end to the impasse over President Trump's demand for border wall funding that has led to a partial government shutdown. Pence appeared on three network morning shows, offering a preview of a prime-time address from the Oval Office planned by Trump on Tuesday night in a bid to gain leverage, with the shutdown now in its third week. Democrats announced that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) would deliver a joint response. During his interviews, Pence did not rule out the possibility that Trump would declare a national emergency that could empower him to construct a border wall without congressional approval. But the vice president said repeatedly that the administration is seeking a negotiated solution with Congress." ...

... Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "The vice president avoided direct answers to questions from ABC and others about repeated misstatements from Trump and others that overstate the national security threat at the border.... 'How can the American people trust the president when he says this is a crisis, when he says things over and over again that aren't true?' [Jonathan] Karl [of ABC News] asked. 'Well, look, the American people aren't as concerned about the political debate as they are concerned about what's really happening at the border,' Pence responded. The vice president also repeated Trump's misleading insistence that a renegotiated free trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada fulfills to his campaign promise that Mexico would pay for a border wall, arguing that the new deal is structured 'in a way that it will benefit the United States in jobs and tax revenues.' Fact checkers have rated those claims false, even if the deal had been ratified and gone into effect, which it has not."

Devlin Barrett & Matt Zapotosky of the Washington Post: "A Russian lawyer whose role at a 2016 meeting at Trump Tower has come under scrutiny from special counsel Robert S. Mueller III was charged Tuesday in a separate case with obstructing justice in a money-laundering investigation. Natalia Veselnitskaya became a central figure in the Mueller probe when it was revealed that in June 2016, she met with Donald Trump Jr., after an intermediary indicated she had dirt on Hillary Clinton. But the charges unsealed Tuesday say she made a 'misleading declaration' to the court in a civil case. Veselnitskaya ... represented Prevezon Holdings in a civil case in which the U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan sought millions of dollars in forfeiture from the company and others. The department had alleged in a civil complaint that a Russian criminal organization ran an elaborate tax refund scheme.... Those involved made about $230 million in tax refunds, prosecutors said, and filtered the money through shell companies and eventually into Prevezon, a Cyprus-based real estate corporation. Prevezon, prosecutors said, laundered the funds into real estate, including by investing in high end commercial property and luxury apartments in Manhattan. The parent company of the victim firms hired attorneys to investigate after learning of the sham lawsuits, including Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, and they uncovered the fraud scheme, in which Russian government officials were complicit, prosecutors said." ...

     ... Mrs. McC: Hmmm, "luxury apartments in Manhattan." Do you suppose any of said "luxury apartments" was sold by "Individual A"? ...

... Benjamin Weiser of the New York Times: "... a federal indictment returned in Manhattan seemed to confirm that Ms. Veselnitskaya had deep ties to senior Russian government officials.... Ms. Veselnitskaya, 43, is believed to be in Russia.... The new indictment again raises questions about whom Ms. Veselnitskaya was representing when she met with Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort and others at Trump Tower in Manhattan during the campaign." Includes a facsimile of the indictment.

Darren Samuelsohn & Rachel Bade of Politico: "The Justice Department is trying to delay acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker from delivering testimony to the new Democratic-led House until next month, potentially pushing his high-profile appearance until after a permanent replacement has already been confirmed, according to two sources familiar with the situation. Whitaker had initially committed to Democratic leaders that he'd give testimony in January to the House Judiciary Committee. But those plans have since stalled, with Justice Department officials citing the ongoing government shutdown and Whitaker's busy travel schedule as reasons for pushing back the hearing, the sources said."

Dissing Our Friends. Steven Erlanger of the New York Times: "The Trump administration downgraded the diplomatic status of the European Union's delegation to the United States last year without making a formal announcement or informing the bloc about the change, a European official said on Tuesday. After protest from Brussels and discussion between the European Union and the Trump administration, the reclassification of the delegation and the consequent demotion of the ambassador, David O'Sullivan, is understood to have been reversed, at least temporarily, the official said. Mr. Trump has been critical of multilateral institutions, and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, delivered a provocative speech in Brussels on Dec. 4 in which he questioned the value of multinational organizations and institutions like the United Nations and the European Union."

*****

Catherine Lucey & Lisa Mascaro of the AP: "With the shutdown lurching into a third week, many Republican watched nervously from the sidelines as hundreds of thousands of federal workers went without pay and government disruptions hit the lives of ordinary Americans. White House officials affirmed Trump's funding request in a letter to Capitol Hill after a meeting Sunday with senior congressional aides led by Vice President Mike Pence at the White House complex yielded little progress. The letter from Office of Management and Budget Acting Director Russell Vought[*] sought funding for a 'steel barrier on the Southwest border.' The White House said the letter, as well as details provided during the meeting, sought to answer Democrats' questions about the funding request. Democrats, though, said the administration still failed to provide a full budget of how it would spend the billions requested for the wall from Congress. Trump campaigned on a promise that Mexico would pay for the wall, but Mexico has refused." (Also linked yesterday.) ...

     ... * Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Yet another "acting" official. ...

... Felicia Sonmez, et al., of the Washington Post: "President Trump is ramping up his efforts to make a public case for his border wall as the partial government shutdown is now in its third week, planning a prime-time address Tuesday night and a visit to the border Thursday. Trump announced the news of the presidential address in a Monday tweet. 'I am pleased to inform you that I will Address the Nation on the Humanitarian and National Security crisis on our Southern Border,' he said. 'Tuesday night at 9:00 P.M. Eastern.'... Earlier Monday, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders announced that Trump will travel to the border with Mexico on Thursday." (This is an update to a story linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... Brian Stelter & Oliver Darcy of CNN: "The major television networks will provide wall-to-wall coverage of ... Donald Trump's prime time address on border security on Tuesday. NBC, ABC, CBS and Fox broadcast network all said on Monday that they had agreed to the White House's request for air time. CNN, Fox News and MSNBC will all carry the address live, as well.... But for a few hours, it was unclear what the networks would do.... A broadcast network executive said 'time has been requested for 9 p.m. Networks are deliberating.' The broadcasters have been known to resist presidential requests for air time for a variety of reasons, including the perceived urgency of the subject and the popularity of the shows that would be interrupted. With Trump, there were other factors to consider, including his record of deception and his tendency to ramble off script in long speeches. Many Trump critics posted messages on social media urging the networks not to air an address that could be filled with falsehoods. Some said that a prominent Democrat should be given equal time. It is unclear if any sort of Democratic rebuttal is in the works." ...

... Eliana Johnson of Politico: "Fighting a virtual one-man messaging battle for his border wall..., Donald Trump is growing frustrated that he doesn't have more public defenders in his shutdown fight with Congressional Democrats.... A president who demands constant praise has a diminishing number of public defenders these days. The result is a manic, one-man public-relations effort to sell the shutdown.... Trump has griped to associates that hasn't seen enough administration officials on the airwaves defending him during the shutdown fight.... He is also angry that he didn't get more backup for his mid-December decision to pull U.S. troops out of Syria.... Meanwhile the White House's once-daily televised press briefing -- a reliable forum for the administration to broadcast its message -- has also all but ceased." ...

... Donnie's Imaginary Friends -- Update on a Whopper. Peter Baker of the New York Times: "As he makes his case for building a border wall, President Trump says that his predecessors have secretly confided in him that they should have done it themselves. The only problem: All of the living presidents say that's not true. Former President Jimmy Carter said on Monday that he never had such a conversation with Mr. Trump, making him the last of the veterans of the Oval Office to dispute the assertion. 'I have not discussed the border wall with President Trump and do not support him on the issue,' Mr. Carter said in a statement. Aides to the other living presidents -- Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama -- have all likewise denied Mr. Trump's claim. Former President George Bush, who died in November, was in failing health throughout Mr. Trump's administration and did not have any discussion with the current president about substantive issues, according to people close to him. This would not be the first time Mr. Trump has bragged about conversations that never happened.... Mr. Trump has not interacted with any of his predecessors in any meaningful way since his inauguration." ...

... Erica Werner, et al., of the Washington Post: "Democrats moved on two fronts Monday to goad Republicans into reopening the federal government, lining up House bills to fund shuttered agencies and preparing to block action in the Senate until the shutdown is resolved. The moves amounted to an increasingly calculated and confrontational strategy from congressional Democrats as the shutdown over President Trump's demand for money for a wall on the Mexican border entered its third week.... In a joint statement Monday night, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Democrats must be given equal airtime to rebut Trump, who, '"if his past statements are any indication will be full of malice and misinformation.'" ...

     ... How to Get the Turtle to Peek out of His Shell. Greg Sargent: "President Trump would almost certainly not be able to continue shutting down the government over his megalomaniacal border wall obsession if it weren't for Mitch McConnell. The Senate majority leader is refusing a Senate vote on the bills that House Democrats have passed funding the government -- shielding Trump from possibly having to veto a bipartisan measure reopening it, which would be politically disastrous for him.... Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) tweeted over the weekend that Senate Democrats should block any and all measures in the Senate that are unrelated to funding the government until the Senate votes on reopening it. Since then, several progressive groups and a handful of Democratic senators have endorsed the strategy.... 'McConnell and Senate Republicans have to stop contracting out their votes to Donald Trump,' Van Hollen [told me]. 'They have an important constitutional role, and we should not have business-as-usual in the Senate until we open the entire federal government.'" (Also linked yesterday.) ...

... Sarah Ferris of Politico: "Several dozen House Republicans might cross the aisle this week to vote for Democratic bills to reopen shuttered parts of the federal government, spurring the White House into a dramatic effort to stem potential GOP defections. White House officials and Republican congressional leaders worry that GOP support for the shutdown is eroding, weakening ... Donald Trump’s hand...." ...

... Josh Israel & Ryan Koronowski of ThinkProgress dig up the hypocrisy of countless Confederates in their position on the Trump shutdown. --s ...

... Damian Paletta, et al., of the Washington Post: "The White House on Monday directed the Internal Revenue Service to pay tax refunds to millions of Americans during the federal shutdown, marking its most dramatic reversal yet of past legal precedent as officials scramble to contain public backlash from the funding lapse. Last year, and during previous administrations, the IRS said it would not pay tax refunds during a government shutdown. But Trump administration lawyers ruled Monday that the refunds could be processed after all, a move that some Democrats called legally dubious.... But it is also the latest in a string of sudden shifts and legal reversals that have shown the White House reverse precedent in the face of public pressure. Senior administration officials changed rules to pay Coast Guard salaries in December, restart an IRS program to clear mortgage applications, and reopen some national parks. They are now searching for ways to prevent the nation's food assistance program from running out of money.... Sam Berger, who worked in the general counsel's office ... during a shutdown under the Obama administration, said the decision reverses years of precedent and runs contrary to the Antideficiency Act, the law establishing that federal agencies cannot spend money that has not been authorized by Congress. 'What we're seeing now is an effort by the administration to ignore legal views, to basically put aside the law and limit the political impact of what's going on,' he said." ...

[In 2017] over 3,700 known or suspected terrorists tried to enter into this country ... at the southern border because there's no wall, there's no physical barrier. There's no way to actually control ports of entry.....It's a problem of national security. It's a problem of terrorists.... We have terrorists coming through the southern border because they find that's probably the easiest place to come through. They drive right in and they make a left. -- Donald Trump, in remarks last week ...

... Julia Ainsley of NBC News: "U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered only six immigrants at ports of entry on the U.S-Mexico border in the first half of fiscal year 2018 whose names were on a federal government list of known or suspected terrorists, according to CBP data provided to Congress in May 2018 and obtained by NBC News. The low number contradicts statements by Trump administration officials, including White House press secretary Sarah Sanders, who said Friday that CBP stopped nearly 4,000 known or suspected terrorists from crossing the southern border in fiscal year 2018.... The White House has used the 4,000 figure to make its case for building a wall on the southwest border and for closing the government until Congress funds it. They have also threatened to call a national emergency in order to get over $5 billion in funding for the wall." ...

     ... "The Number of the Beast." Mrs. McCrabbie: Mrs. Huckleberry, et al., were off by a factor of 666 (4,000/6), which is just too perfect, what with the Revelation that 666 is "the number of the Beast." I wonder if any of Trump's evangelical acolytes are good enough at arithmetic to notice his press secretary is sending them the coded message, "Trump is the Anti-Christ." ...

... Kevin Drum: "Six. And this is merely people who were on a watchlist. Given what we know about the terrorist watchlist, this means the most likely number of real threats stopped at the southern border was zero or one. But it gets worse. These were people stopped at legal ports of entry, so a wall obviously wouldn't have affected them anyway.... At this point, anything officially released by the White House should simply be considered a lie unless it’s confirmed with someone reliable." ...

... Rafi Schwartz of Splinter: "Incidentally, NBC reported, there were nearly twice as many people from the database stopped at the northern border -- 41 of whom weren't citizens or lawful residents. In any case, you'd think that after years of barfing up obvious falsehoods for the president, [Sarah] Sanders would know not to make bogus claims that, oh, I dunno, might be easily disproven. Which means either she's getting worse at lying for a living, or just doesn't care anymore. Maybe both." ...

... Mrs. McCrabbie: Trump, a former real estate developer, should know that the first major step in developing a property is, um, acquiring it. It's a lesson that seems to have slipped his mind. As Gerald Dickinson writes in the Hill, "Only about one-third of the land the wall would sit on is owned by the federal government or by Native American tribes. States and private property owners, especially along the Texas-Mexico border, own the rest. Trump would have to engineer a monumental settlement with thousands of landowners who control thousands of acres of land along the border. Otherwise, the administration will have to face hundreds, if not thousands, of lengthy eminent domain disputes before anything is built across approximately 2,000 miles of the international border. Beyond the turf wars, the wall is sure to raise considerable litigation over environmental impacts." Based on the government's past experiences acquiring vast land tracts, Dickinson predicts "years and years of litigation and long and drawn out settlements with landowners." ...

     ... Well, you say, Trump isn't planning to use "regular" eminent domain to take the land. As Dickinson notes in another Hill op-ed, Trump "said he would grab the land 'under the military version' of eminent domain 'fairly quickly.'..." Oh yeah? As Dickinson writes, "it took 15 years for the Army Corps of Engineers to seize the land for the famous Truman Dam." AND, speaking of Truman, as Harry Truman himself learned from the Supreme Court when he tried to national steel mills during the Korean conflict, "the president does not have the power to order the military to seize private property and that the power is the 'job for the Nation's lawmakers, not for its military authorities.'" ...

     ... ** AND This. Joe Romm of ThinkProgress: "The shutdown is because Trump demands extending the existing border walls and barriers to vast areas that make no sense largely because they are in the Rio Grande floodplain. Building barriers in that floodplain was such a problematic idea that a 1970 treaty between United States and Mexico explicitly bans them.... [T]he overwhelming majority of the border, where there isn't some form of barrier, runs straight down the middle of 1,254 snaking miles of the enormous Rio Grande River. But the Rio Grande routinely floods.... If Trump flagrantly violates the treaty to build his wall, not only will it lead to court challenges, but it will worsen relations with the very country we need to work with if the United States is to improve the border situation." --s ...

... Aditi Shrikant of Vox: "The partial government shutdown is dragging on over the $5 billion ... Donald Trump wants for his wall along the US-Mexico border, a political crisis that may be weakening security at a much more common point of entry for immigrants: airports. According to CNN, hundreds of Transportation Security Administration officers who were expected to work have called in sick. 'This will definitely affect the flying public who we [are] sworn to protect,' President of the National TSA Employee union Hydrick Thomas told CNN. Their absence will not only increase airport frustrations for travelers, but could also lead to skimping on safety precautions.... According to WNYC, TSA is one of the lowest-paying federal agencies, with the typical starting salary of a TSA agent being $17,000 (other estimations say it may be closer to $25,000). And with Trump declaring the shutdown could last for 'months' or even 'years,' it's easy to see why many calling in or looking for other options." ...

... Jonathan Chait: "The Trump administration's shutdown of the federal government over the last two weeks is a synecdoche for the way it has run the federal government over the last two years. They blundered into it almost by accident, without any understanding of what they are doing nor any plan for success.... Nobody in the administration had a clear understanding of just what a shutdown would entail. Two devastating reports in the Washington Post over the weekend detail the horrifying scope of their ignorance. The administration did not realize that 38 million Americans lose their food stamps under a shutdown, nor did it know that thousands of tenants would face eviction without assistance from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.... Facing an economic cataclysm, Trump appears to have no endgame in mind.... All [Democrats] can do in the meantime is continue to send Trump bills to reopen the government immediately, and wait for the president to realize the political blood on the floor is his own."

From the Alternative Reality of Donald J. Trump. Missy Ryan of the Washington Post: "President Trump on Monday pushed back against media reports that he had altered the timeline for removing U.S. troops from Syria, denying his administration had issued a series of contradictory statements about plans for ending America's role in the war. 'We will be leaving at a proper pace while at the same time continuing to fight ISIS and doing all else that is prudent and necessary!' the president said in a message on Twitter, referring to the Pentagon's ongoing operation to defeat the Islamic State. His comment, which differed from earlier promises of a swift departure for the more than 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria, was the latest iteration of an envolving roadmap for concluding the military mission there. Trump's statement came a day after national security adviser John Bolton, speaking to reporters during a tour of the Middle East, said the troop departure would occur only after Islamic State militants are fully routed. Both his comments and Trump's conflict with officials' initial statements following the president's unexpected Dec. 19 announcement that all troops would come home in short order. Trump also declared victory against the Islamic State, contradicting military assessments." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Mark Landler & Helene Cooper of the New York Times: "John R. Bolton found himself last weekend in a familiar but dangerous spot: cleaning up after his boss announced the withdrawal of 2,000 troops from Syria -- a decision that rattled allies and threw America's Middle East policy into turmoil. But Mr. Bolton is at least partly responsible for the conditions that led to President Trump's sudden move. As the president's national security adviser, Mr. Bolton has largely eliminated the internal policy debates that could have fleshed out the troop decision with timetables, conditions and a counterterrorism strategy for after the troops leave. Under Mr. Bolton's management, senior administration officials said, the National Security Council staff had 'zero' role in brokering a debate over America's future in Syria.... Faced with the president's abrupt declaration..., Mr. Bolton felt compelled to talk his boss into slowing down the process, these officials said. Then Mr. Bolton had to cobble together a withdrawal strategy that would normally have taken shape over weeks or months and laid the groundwork for Mr. Trump's decision -- not hastily followed it. Mr. Trump pushed back on reports that he and his adviser were out of sync..., firing at a report in The New York Times rather than at Mr. Bolton."

The Talented Mr. Mulvaney. He Can Do Anything Better than Anyone. Maggie Haberman & Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, as recently as late last year explored the possibility of becoming president of the University of South Carolina, four people familiar with the discussions said. Mr. Mulvaney, a congressman from South Carolina for six years before joining the Trump administration, initiated a discussion with a senior official at the university late last year about the position, which is going to become open this summer. By then, Mr. Mulvaney already had two other jobs -- he led the federal Office of Management and Budget, as well as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. But he was weeks away from getting a third job that he had lobbied President Trump for over several months: White House chief of staff. Mr. Mulvaney got the job in an 'acting' capacity -- a move Mr. Trump said over the weekend gave him 'flexibility' with various appointments.... But chief of staff is not a cabinet-level position requiring Senate confirmation, so it is unclear why the 'acting' designation has remained."

"All the Best People" Are Saying, "Hell, No." Eliana Johnson & Daniel Lippman of Politico: "... Donald Trump is having a tough time hiring a Pentagon chief after the abrupt departure of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis late last month. Jon Kyl, the retired Arizona Republican senator, became the second person to wave off Trump's overtures last week, telling the White House he is not interested in the job. Ret. Gen. Jack Keane also turned down the job shortly after Mattis' resignation. (Keane, who frequently advises Trump, had refused the position once before, during the 2016 presidential transition.)"

Juan Cole: "The response of Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) to the proposed the Senate bill permitting state and local sanctions on persons and companies that boycott Israel was 'They forgot which country they are representing.'She wasn't harsh enough. The senators who pushed this bill, foremost among them Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) have betrayed the Constitution. And so have the American Israel Public Affairs Committee staffers, who are attempting to gut the US Constitution on behalf of Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.... Economic boycotts have been part and parcel of American political striving for liberty from the beginning. I have three words for you: Boston Tea Party.... Two Federal judges have already found state laws that attempt to punish companies or individuals for boycotting Israel unconstitutional, one in Kansas and one in Arizona.... Unless Trump manages to so corrupt the Supreme Court that it ceases even trying to uphold the constitution, both S. 1 and the fascist state laws it seeks to safeguard will all be struck down. The senators know this.... They are not only betrayers of the constitution, they are whores." --s

Uh-Oh. Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who underwent cancer surgery last month, was missing from the bench on Monday for the Supreme Court's first arguments since the court returned from its four-week holiday break.... Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. announced his colleague's absence at the start of Monday's session, saying that 'Justice Ginsburg is unable to be present today.' He added that she would take part in the court's consideration of the day's two cases based on the briefs submitted by the parties and transcripts of the arguments." (Also linked yesterday.) ...

... Mark Sherman of the AP: "Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is missing arguments for the first time in more than 25 years as she recuperates from cancer surgery last month, the Supreme Court said." (Also linked yesterday.)

Beyond the Beltway

Arizona. Liam Stack of the New York Times: "The chief executive of the corporation that runs a private nursing home in Arizona where a woman in a vegetative state was sexually assaulted and later gave birth to a child resigned on Monday, the company said in a statement. The company, Hacienda HealthCare, said the resignation of the executive, Bill Timmons, was unanimously accepted by its board of directors. David Leibowitz, a company spokesman, said Mr. Timmons had been chief executive for 28 years.... Hacienda HealthCare has been under intense scrutiny since the Phoenix Police Department said last week that it had opened an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the conception of the child, who was born last month.... Records posted to the Medicare website indicate that the care center received a 'below average' rating from health inspectors in 2017. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services rated its quality of resident care as 'much below average.'

California. Creepy News. Neal Broverman of the Advocate: "The body of another young black man has been found at the West Hollywood apartment of Ed Buck -- a prominent Democratic donor who allegedly has a fetish for drugging sex workers.... Buck, a white man in his 60s, was investigated previously by authorities after the death of Gemmel Moore, who died of a methamphetamine overdose in Buck's home in July 2017. Since Moore's death was classified as an accidental overdose, numerous young black gay men have alleged that Buck has a fetish for shooting drugs into black men he picks up off the street or on hookup sites. Moore had written about Buck injecting him with dangerous drugs before his death."

New York. Katie Thomas of the New York Times & Charles Ornstein of ProPublica: "Dr. José Baselga, who resigned his position as the top doctor at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center after failing to disclose millions of dollars in payments from drug companies, is now going to work for one of them. AstraZeneca, the British-Swedish drug maker, announced on Monday that it had hired Dr. Baselga as its head of research and development in oncology.... Dr. Baselga stepped down in September from his role as chief medical officer at the cancer center after The New York Times and ProPublica reported that he had failed to accurately disclose his conflicts of interest in dozens of articles in medical journals. He later resigned from the boards of the drug maker Bristol-Myers Squibb and the radiation equipment manufacturer Varian Medical Systems. Although Memorial Sloan Kettering has said that Dr. Baselga was not fired, hospital leaders have indicated that he was forced out."

Way Beyond

Bibi Takes a Page out of Donald's Big Book of Cheap Tricks. David Halbfinger of the New York Times: "For seven minutes on live television -- enormously valuable exposure with elections only three months away -- [Israeli PM Benjamin] Netanyahu railed against a corruption investigation into his dealings with several Israeli media tycoons that is widely expected to culminate soon in an indictment on bribery and other criminal charges. The investigation was 'biased,' Mr. Netanyahu complained.... He scoffed at the idea that one of the main accusations against him — buying positive news coverage, in exchange for government benefits worth hundreds of millions of dollars -- could amount to bribery: 'A joke,' he said. 'An absurdity!' And then he suggested one of his chief rivals in the April elections, the centrist candidate Yair Lapid, was guilty of the same thing; called himself and his family victims of a 'terrible witch hunt' orchestrated by the political left; and claimed that those leftist adversaries wanted him to sacrifice Israel's security, but that he would 'never do such a thing.' At least one television channel cut away midspeech."