The Commentariat -- January 7, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Nicole Gaouette & Jennifer Hansler of CNN: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday defended the basis for killing Iranian General Qasem Soleimani because of the threat of an imminent strike but declined to present any evidence, saying President Donald Trump's decision was 'entirely legal.'... Pompeo ... didn't offer any evidence of looming threats, but instead referred to past events that he said Soleimani was responsible for." The story will be updated. ~~~

~~~ Watch that POS lie to Andrea Mitchell about Trump's repeated threats to destroy Iran's cultural sites. Ken W. posited in today's comments that Pompouspeo is a chicken. Pompeo went on the teevee to prove it (again) today:

Jeff Stein & Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post: "... administration officials have begun drafting sanctions against Iraq after President Trump publicly threatened the country with economic if it proceeded to expel U.S. troops, according to three people briefed on the planning.... Such a step would represent a highly unusual move against a foreign ally that the United States has spent almost two decades and hundreds of billions of dollars supporting. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were discussing internal deliberations, emphasized talks were preliminary and no final decision has been made on whether to impose the sanctions." The Hill has a summary of the WashPo report.

Eric Tucker of the AP: "The killing of a top Iranian general has ratcheted up the anxiety of families of Americans held in Iran, one month after the release of a New Jersey student had given them hope. The Trump administration has made a priority of bringing home hostages held abroad, but the prospect of a forthcoming resolution for the handful of captives in Iran seems to have dimmed with the two nations edging dangerously close to conflict and warning of retaliatory strikes and continued agitation."

Burgess Everett & Marianne Levine of Politico: "Senate Republican leaders are preparing to move forward on a set of impeachment trial rules without Democratic support. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is on the verge of having sufficient backing in his 53-member caucus to pass a blueprint for the trial that leaves the question of seeking witnesses and documents until after opening arguments are made, according to multiple senators. That framework would mirror the contours of President Bill Clinton’s trial and ignore Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's demands for witnesses and new evidence." Mrs. McC: The reporters don't mention that during Clinton's impeachment trial, Ken Starr's witch hunt had got plenty of first-hand evidence, from Monica Lewinsky to Bill Clinton's deposition & DNA. Claiming the Trump rules "mirror" the Clinton rules is a crock when you figure in, as is necessary, Trump's forceful stonewall.

~~~~~~~~~~

Allan Smith of NBC News: "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., announced the House will vote soon on a war powers resolution to limit ... Donald Trump's military actions after he ordered the killing of a top Iranian general last week, escalating tensions with Tehran. 'Last week, the Trump administration conducted a provocative and disproportionate military airstrike targeting high-level Iranian military officials,' Pelosi said in a letter to colleagues Sunday. 'This action endangered our servicemembers, diplomats and others by risking a serious escalation of tensions with Iran. As members of Congress, our first responsibility is to keep the American people safe,' she continued. 'For this reason, we are concerned that the administration took this action without the consultation of Congress and without respect for Congress’s war powers granted to it by the Constitution.' She said the House resolution is similar to one introduced in the Senate by Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Sarah Ruiz-Grossman of the Huffington Post: "The Trump administration blocked Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's top diplomat, from entering the United States, Foreign Policy reported Monday. The diplomat planned to come to the U.S. to address the United Nations Security Council in a meeting on Jan. 9, when he was expected to speak on the assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani by the U.S. Unnamed diplomatic sources ... said [the move] violates a 1947 agreement with the U.N. that the U.S. allow foreign officials into the country for U.N. affairs. A Trump administration official called U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres on Monday to tell him Zarif would not be allowed in, a source told Foreign Policy.... The Iranian mission to the U.N. told HuffPost that, as of late Monday, it had not yet received 'any official word' from the U.S. or U.N. on Zarif’s visa." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: A great way to garner more sympathy for Iran. Shades of Rudy, but worse. New York Times (Oct. 25, 1995): "A day after Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani expelled Yasir Arafat from a concert for world leaders at Lincoln Center, the Clinton Administration sharply criticized the Mayor yesterday for what Washington officials called an embarrassing breach of international diplomacy. Mr. Giuliani, clearly relishing the controversy, insisted that he could never forgive and play host to Mr. Arafat even though the Palestinian leader has been embraced as a peacemaker by the Israeli and United States Governments." ~~~

~~~ Mike Baker & Caitlin Dickerson of the New York Times: "More than 100 people of Iranian descent appear to have [been detained by Customs & Border Protections agents] at Washington [state]'s border with Canada over the weekend, a process Gov. Jay Inslee described on Monday as the inappropriate 'detention' of people -- some of them United States citizens — who had done nothing wrong.... Border agents often require people seeking admittance at the border to undergo a process known as secondary screening -- which appears to have occurred in Washington, and in lesser numbers at other ports of entry. An agency official told members of Congress on Monday that leaders in local offices had been 'asked to remain vigilant and increase their situational awareness given the evolving threat environment.' A half-dozen people of Iranian descent who were held for additional questioning in Washington described extensive questioning about their family and background.... Legal advocates at a Monday news conference in Seattle described several cases of travelers being questioned about their feelings about the United States and what was happening in Iran.”

Oops! They Really Don't Know WTF They're Doing. Lolita Baldor & Robert Burns of the AP: “For a few tense hours Monday, the United States appeared to have announced that American troops were pulling out of Baghdad after nearly 17 years.... 'Here's the bottom line, this was a mistake,' Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said as he tried to unravel a knot of miscommunication.... The bungled message started when a draft letter from Marine Brig. Gen. William Seely began circulating on social media. Addressed to an official at the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, the letter said U.S. troops would be 'repositioning forces' to prepare for 'onward movement.' Seely added, 'We respect your sovereign decision to order our departure.' The 'order' Seely mentioned was a reference to the Iraqi parliament's vote over the weekend to expel U.S. troops after an American drone attack killed a top Iranian general in Baghdad. A flurry of news reports followed Seely’s letter, saying the United States was ending its military presence in Iraq. But after a few hours of denials and frantic phone calls, top Pentagon leaders tried to do damage control, stating flatly that the U.S. had no plans to leave and saying the letter was a poorly worded draft that never should have gone out. 'Nobody's leaving,' Milley said. 'There's no onward movement. Honest mistake.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Maybe Milley should say the same thing about the assassination of Suleimani: "POTUS* is an idiot. Didn't mean to kill anybody. Honest mistake.” ~~~

     ~~~ Update. According to Rachel Maddow, the letter was not just "circulating on social media." It was delivered to Iraq's defense minister. Here's how the AP report puts it: "It's not entirely clear who leaked the letter. According to Milley, the draft was circulated to key Iraqi officials as part of a coordination process to let them know about ... increased helicopter movements. Officials say it was first posted on the website of an Iranian-backed militia group." Here's a photo of the letter.

Farnaz Fassihi & David Kirkpatrick of the New York Times: "In the tense hours following the American killing of a top Iranian military commander, the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made a rare appearance at a meeting of the government's National Security Council to lay down the parameters for any retaliation. It must be a direct and proportional attack on American interests, he said, openly carried out by Iranian forces themselves, three Iranians familiar with the meeting said Monday. It was a startling departure for the Iranian leadership. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Tehran had almost always cloaked its attacks behind the actions of proxies it had cultivated around the region."

New York Times live updates (Tuesday): "Iranian state-run news outlets reported a deadly stampede during the funeral procession for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani in his hometown, Kerman, in southeastern Iran, on Tuesday. Millions were reported to have flooded the town's streets to witness the procession for the general.... At least 35 may have been killed, one news service reported, according to The Associated Press.... The general's body had been flown to Kerman after a funeral in Tehran on Monday that had brought even bigger crowds into the streets of the Iranian capital." An AP story is here. ~~~

~~~ New York Times live updates (Monday): "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wept and offered prayers over the coffin of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani at the funeral in Tehran on Monday, as throngs of people filled the city's streets to mourn.... Ayatollah Khamenei had a close relationship with the general, who was widely considered to be the second most powerful man in Iran. The military commander was hailed as a martyr, and his successor swore revenge during the funeral ceremony, while chants of 'Death to America' rang out from the crowds in the capital." An AP story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Nasser Karimi & Jon Gambrell of the AP: "The funeral for Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani drew a crowd said by police to be in the millions in the Iranian capital, filling thoroughfares and side streets as far as the eye could see. Although there was no independent estimate, aerial footage and Associated Press journalists suggested a turnout of at least 1 million, and the throngs were visible on satellite images of Tehran taken Monday."

AFP: "The US killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was meant to cripple Tehran's clout in the Middle East, but analysts see the allies of the Islamic Republic closing rank instead."

Peter Baker of the New York Times: "For three years, President Trump's critics have expressed concern over how he would handle a genuine international crisis, warning that a commander in chief known for impulsive action might overreach with dangerous consequences. In the angry and frenzied aftermath of the American drone strike that killed Iran's top general, with vows of revenge hanging in the air, Mr. Trump confronts a decisive moment that will test whether those critics were right or whether they misjudged him. 'The moment we all feared is likely upon us," Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut and vocal critic of Mr. Trump, wrote on Twitter over the weekend. 'An unstable President in way over his head, panicking, with all his experienced advisers having quit, and only the sycophantic amateurs remaining. Assassinating foreign leaders, announcing plans to bomb civilians. A nightmare.'... [Trump] faces enormous skepticism from the critics who have long warned that he was too erratic to face moments of crisis.... [But] And some experts on the [Mideast] region suggested that Mr. Trump's very unpredictability was a deterrent in itself...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: What Baker doesn't acknowledge is that this is a crisis of Trump's own making: first, by cancelling the nuclear deal with Iran, then by imposing crippling sanctions on Iran, then by overreacting to the murder of a U.S. contractor by making multiple strikes on militia sites, then by overreacting to protesters' attacks on the U.S. embassy in Tehran by assassinating Suleimani. So we already know how Trump "responds" to a crisis: (1) he creates it, and (2) he makes it worse & worse. ~~~

~~~ Paul Krugman: "... Trump's latest attempt to bully another country has backfired -- just like all his previous attempts. From his first days in office, Trump has acted on the apparent belief that he could easily intimidate foreign governments.... That is, he imagined that he faced a world of Lindsey Grahams, willing to abandon all dignity at the first hint of a challenge. But this strategy keeps failing; the regimes he threatens are strengthened rather than weakened, and Trump is the one who ends up making humiliating concessions.... Under his leadership, we've become nothing more than a big, self-interested bully.... Trump officials seem taken aback by the uniformly negative consequences of the Suleimani killing.... But that's what happens when you betray all your friends and squander all your credibility." ~~~

~~~ Michelle Goldberg of the New York Times: "After three harrowing years, we've reached the point many of us feared from the moment Donald Trump was elected. His decision to kill Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran's second most important official, made at Mar-a-Lago with little discernible deliberation, has brought the United States to the brink of a devastating new conflict in the Middle East.... The administration has said that the killing of Suleimani was justified by an imminent threat to American lives, but there is no reason to believe this.... The Washington Post reported that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- who last year agreed with a Christian Broadcasting Network interviewer that God might have sent Trump to save Israel from the 'Iranian menace' -- has been pushing for a hit on Suleimani for months.... It's hard to see how this ends without disaster."

Peter Baker & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper ... on Monday [ruled] out military attacks on cultural sites in Iran if the conflict with Tehran escalates further, despite President Trump's threat to destroy some of the country's treasured icons. Mr. Esper acknowledged that striking cultural sites with no military value would be a war crime, putting him at odds with the president, who insisted such places would be legitimate targets.... 'We will follow the laws of armed conflict,' Mr. Esper said at a news briefing at the Pentagon when asked if cultural sites would be targeted as the president had suggested over the weekend. When a reporter asked if that meant 'no' because the laws of war prohibit targeting cultural sites, Mr. Esper agreed. 'That's the laws of armed conflict.'" The AP story is here. Mrs. McC: Note how Esper evades a direct answer, even as -- when pressed -- he goes further than Pompeo did Sunday when asked the same question. The correct answer to the first question is "POTUS* is an idiot. Of course the U.S. doesn't target cultural sites. We aren't gonna do it." ~~~

~~~ Lara Jakes of the New York Times: "More than 2,300 years ago, the Persian capital of Persepolis was burned by a foreign warrior in a fatal blow to the empire and its rich heritage. The ruins of the ancient city, in modern-day southwest Iran, could now be on President Trump's target list of 52 sites he has threatened to attack as tensions escalated between Washington and Tehran.... But the targeting of cultural sites is against international law, and critics denounced Mr. Trump for his statement.... The United States is a signatory to a 1954 international agreement to protect cultural property in armed conflict. Violating it attacks on Iran's historical sites would represent a huge turnabout. The United States was among the harshest critics of the Islamic State's destruction of antiquities in Mosul, Iraq, and Palmyra, Syria, as well as the Taliban's obliteration of the Bamiyan Buddhas in Afghanistan in 2001.... By Sunday, under the hashtag #IranianCulturalSites, a Twitter campaign cropped up in the form of history buffs taking verbal aim at Mr. Trump's threat." See also unwashed's commentary below. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Rick Noack of the Washington Post: "By suggesting strikes on '52 Iranian sites,' including some that are important to 'the Iranian culture,' Trump threatened a way of waging war that has drawn growing outrage in decades, critics argued Monday.... 'Targeting civilians and cultural sites is what terrorists do. It's a war crime,' tweeted Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In Britain, a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned that 'there are international conventions in place which prevent the destruction of cultural heritage.'... In March 2017 -- only weeks after Trump's inauguration -- the U.N. Security Council, with the United States as a permanent member, unanimously adopted a resolution condemning the 'unlawful destruction of cultural heritage, inter alia destruction of religious sites and artefacts' in armed conflicts.... But with a U.S. president now threatening to attack cultural sites in Iran, the narrative that the United States helped to advance now appears in doubt." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ John Bellinger in Lawfare: "On Sunday, Jan. 5, President Trump -- as he is wont to do when criticized — doubled down on his threat to bomb Iranian cultural sites if Iran attacks the United States in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. Although the United States is not a party to the Rome Statute, which makes intentional attacks on historic monuments a war crime, the United States is a party to the 1954 Hague Convention on Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict, which the Senate approved in September 2008, when I was legal adviser.... Trump and Vice President Mike Pence should learn the domestic and international law rules that govern the use of military force and the conduct of military operations and to understand why they are important." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Chait: "The unfolding Iran adventure seems to open once again the question of what principle, if any, defines this president's foreign policy. Isolationism? Nationalism? Whatever Fox News is demanding at any given moment? His real North Star is in fact an idea he has explicated many times, but -- perhaps because it is so horrifying -- even his critics seem hesitant to accept as a true motivation. Trump's plan is to collapse the moral space between America and its enemies.... Our enemies are stronger and tougher, [Trump believes,] willing to do the hard things that mut be done in order to win. To defeat them, we must become like them. Trump has long dismissed respect for human rights, international law, and innocent life as a form of political correctness.... The protective cordon surrounding Trump has eroded as his first term draws to a close, and it would be foolish to assume [aides] will necessarily succeed in stopping his latest unthinkable act.... From [his] premise that the authoritarians of the world are strong and correct, and its (small-d) democrats are politically correct fools, his broader recasting of America's alliances makes perfect sense. Of course he would draw the United States closer to Russia, the Gulf States, and the emerging autocrats of Europe...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

** Wild Card. Nicholas Fandos & Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "John R. Bolton, the former White House national security adviser, said on Monday that he was willing to testify at President Trump's impeachment trial if he was subpoenaed. 'I have concluded that, if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify,' Mr. Bolton said in a statement on his website. The development is a dramatic turn in the impeachment proceeding, which has been stalled over Democrats' insistence on hearing from critical witnesses Mr. Trump blocked from testifying in the House inquiry.... Mr. Bolton is a potential bombshell of a witness, with crucial knowledge of the president's actions and conversations regarding Ukraine that could fill out key blanks in the narrative of the impeachment case. His willingness to tell the Senate what he knows ratchets up pressure on Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, who has refused to commit to calling witnesses at the impeachment trial, to change his stance. It is unclear how the White House will respond to Mr. Bolton's declaration, but his statement strongly suggested that he would testify regardless of whether Mr. Trump sought to prevent him." Politico's story is here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Like me, Ed Kilgore of New York is not all that convinced that John Bolton would be the great game-changer some prognosticators anticipate. Kilgore: "For all we know, this career-long defender of presidential power may share the White House's view opposing disclosure of virtually any communication between the president and his staff. And even if he throws shade at some of his rivals on that staff, or joins many Trump defenders willing to throw Rudy Giuliani totally under the bus, it's a big leap from there to 'Trump's removal from office.' You may be wondering why Bolton suddenly decided to testify after deferring to the courts to determine whether a House subpoena would persuade him to testify. It's likely because any Senate subpoena would actually be signed by the Senate trial's presiding officer, the chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, and no inferior federal judge would be likely to brush that aside." ~~~

~~~ Marianne Levine & John Bresnahan of Politico: "Despite John Bolton's willingness to testify about the Ukraine scandal, the GOP-controlled Senate has no immediate plans to subpoena him in ... Donald Trump's impeachment trial -- a win for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the White House. While Democrats have called for testimony from Trump's former national security adviser, so far there's no sign that they will secure support from four Republicans they would need to follow through on their demand.... On Monday, [GOP Sens. Susan] Collins and [Lisa] Murkowski both signaled they wanted to begin the trial first. 'I believe that the Senate should follow the precedent that was established in the trial of President Clinton,' Collins said, echoing McConnell's argument. 'I think that we will decide at that stage who we need to hear from.'... Even vulnerable Republicans, such as Cory Gardner of Colorado, who faces a competitive reelection race in 2020, expressed no interest in hearing from Bolton." ~~~

~~~ Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said on Monday that he wants to hear from John Bolton after the former White House national security adviser offered to testify in President Trump's impeachment trial if subpoenaed. Romney told reporters ... that he wants to hear from Bolton and find out 'what he knows' about Trump's dealings with Ukraine." ~~~

~~~ Jordain Carney: "Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said on Monday that she supports delaying a decision on which, if any, witnesses should testify until after the start of President Trump's impeachment trial. With that decision Murkowski aligns herself with the process advocated by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and bolsters the chances that Republicans -- absent an 11th hour deal with Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) -- will be able to force through their own impeachment rules. 'I think we need to do what they did the last time they did this ... and that was to go through a first phase, and then they reassessed after that,' Murkowski told reporters after leaving McConnell's office." Mrs. McC: My, it does sound as if Mitch is a very good arm-twister. ~~~

~~~ Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post: "Facts subsequent to the House impeachment have become known that directly pertain to Trump's conduct and, to boot, a critical witness is now suddenly available. Do Senate Republicans try to sweep all that under the rug, risking that Bolton will later tell his story publicly and incriminate a president whose misdeeds the Senate helped cover up?... House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is in the driver's seat because she wisely held up the articles of impeachment. She can now turn to the Senate and say: Agree upon rules for the trial that guarantee Bolton's and other key witnesses' appearance or we will hold on to the articles and subpoena Bolton ourselves.... It is now time for all of them, including Bolton, [Mick] Mulvaney, Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Office of Management and Budget official Michael Duffey ... and White House national security aide Robert Blair ... to do their civic duty and step forward. Moreover, it's time for senators to do their duty and uphold their oaths as senators and as jurors."

Maybe This Guy Wants to Testify, Too. Wesley Morgan & Connor O'Brien of Politico: "Eric Chewning, chief of staff to Defense Secretary Mark Esper, is stepping down at the end of the month, the latest in a series of high-profile civilians to leave the Pentagon. He'll be replaced by Jen Stewart, the top Republican staffer on the House Armed Services Committee and a former top adviser to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, according to a statement from Pentagon spokeswoman Alyssa Farah.... Chewning was featured in a recently released trove of unredacted emails that show Pentagon officials' concerns with the legality of White House moves this summer to hold up military assistance to Ukraine, an issue at the center of ... Donald Trump's impeachment.... Chewning ... wrote that a memo to OMB, which warned that the Ukraine aid was in danger of not being fully spent by the end of the fiscal year, will have to wait until after a September meeting between Vice President Mike Pence and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Poland. 'We expect the issue to get resolved then,' he wrote to [acting Pentagon comptroller Elaine] McCusker." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Rachel Maddow is interested in knowing what-all pence was going to tell Zelensky that would "resolve the issue." And it makes me wonder how it's possible that pence, who was tasked with getting the issue with Zelensky resolved, also "was unaware of Trump's efforts to press Zelensky for damaging information about Biden and his son.... Officials close to Pence contend that he traveled to Warsaw for a meeting with Zelensky on Sept. 1 probably without having read -- or at least fully registered -- the transcript of Trump's July 25 call with the leader of Ukraine. White House officials said that Pence probably would have received the detailed notes of the president's call in his briefing book on July 26. The five-page document also should have been part of the briefing materials he took with him to Warsaw to prepare for the meeting...." That's the wholly improbable cover story pence aides gave the WashPo. It's as if Pheidippides ran from Athens to Sparta but didn't deliver the message because it hadn't "fully registered." (As it happens, the Spartans were a lot like Zelensky: they got the message but they didn't fulfill the request.)

Megan Mineiro of Courthouse News: "Federal prosecutors told a judge Monday they are prepared to release sealed materials in search and seizure warrants against Roger Stone issued during the FBI probe into the Trump campaign's ties to Russia. U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper in Washington opted for the government's proposed 60-day timeline to hand the sealed court records over to a coalition of media outlets that sued for the secret materials last year.... Cooper was randomly assigned the case after U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson, who oversaw Stone's trial, recused herself based on a conflict with a member of the media coalition."

Tess Owen of Vice: "A senior employee at a for-profit immigrant detention center in Nevada was active on the neo-Nazi site Iron March and aspired to establish a white nationalist chapter in his area.Travis Frey, 31, is currently employed as a captain at the Nevada Southern Detention Center, which is run by private prison behemoth CoreCivic and contracted with ICE. Frey joined Iron March in 2013, and posted at least a dozen times between 2016 and 2017 while he was working as head of security at a CoreCivic jail in Indianapolis, which was also authorized to house detainees on behalf of ICE.... On Iron March, Frey used the screen name 'In Hoc Signo Vinces,' a Latin phrase that's used by military outfits around the world, and by universities, and was the title of the American Nazi Party's manifesto. VICE News was able to identify Frey ... through some of the personal information he provided on Iron March...." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: But we sure Owen didn't bring his virulent racist proclivities to work.

Presidential Race

Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "Julián Castro on Monday threw his backing behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren for president, only days after suspending his own bid for the White House. 'There's one candidate I see who's unafraid to fight like hell to make sure America's promise will be there for everyone, who will make sure that no matter where you live in America or where your family came from in the world, you have a path to opportunity, too,' Castro says in a video announcing his endorsement." The New York Times story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

Senate Race, Kansas. Maggie Haberman, et al., of the New York Times: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday told Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, that he does not plan to run for Senate in 2020, most likely ending Republicans' hopes of securing a potentially dominant candidate for the open seat in his home state of Kansas, according to four people briefed on the meeting. Mr. Pompeo, a former congressman from the Wichita area, has quietly explored a campaign for months. But in the aftermath of the military operation last week that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani of Iran. Mr. Pompeo has told senior party officials that he is ruling out becoming a candidate, according to several people who have spoken with him directly." Politico has the story here.

Jan Ranson & Jose Del Real of the New York Times: "The Los Angeles County district attorney, Jackie Lacey, said [Harvey] Weinstein [was] charged [Monday] with one felony count each of forcible rape, forcible oral copulation, sexual penetration by use of force and sexual battery by restraint [in the cases of two women he (allegedly) accosted at a Hollywood film festival in 2013]. He faces up to 28 years in prison if convicted.... Only hours before prosecutors in Los Angeles unveiled the new case against Mr. Weinstein, he had hobbled with a walker into a courtroom in Manhattan for a hearing on the eve of his long-anticipated rape trial there. Jury selection was to begin on Tuesday." An AP story is here.

News Lede

CNN: "A 6.4-magnitude earthquake rocked Puerto Rico early Tuesday morning, just one day after a 5.8 magnitude quake shook the island, according to the US Geological Survey. The 6.4 quake struck at 3:24 a.m. local time about 6 miles south of Indios, Puerto Rico, the USGS said. The mayor of Guayanilla, just north Indios, reported damage to homes and a church. There were no immediate reports of injuries, Mayor Nelson Torres said in a phone interview with CNN affiliate WAPA."

The Commentariat -- January 6, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Allan Smith of NBC News: "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., announced the House will vote soon on a war powers resolution to limit ... Donald Trump's military actions after he ordered the killing of a top Iranian general last week, escalating tensions with Tehran. 'Last week, the Trump administration conducted a provocative and disproportionate military airstrike targeting high-level Iranian military officials,' Pelosi said in a letter to colleagues Sunday. 'This action endangered our servicemembers, diplomats and others by risking a serious escalation of tensions with Iran. As members of Congress, our first responsibility is to keep the American people safe,' she continued. 'For this reason, we are concerned that the administration took this action without the consultation of Congress and without respect for Congress's war powers granted to it by the Constitution.' She said the House resolution is similar to one introduced in the Senate by Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va."

New York Times live updates: "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wept and offered prayers over the coffin of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani at the funeral in Tehran on Monday, as throngs of people filled the city's streets to mourn.... Ayatollah Khamenei had a close relationship with the general, who was widely considered to be the second most powerful man in Iran. The military commander was hailed as a martyr, and his successor swore revenge during the funeral ceremony, while chants of 'Death to America' rang out from the crowds in the capital." An AP story is here. ~~~

~~~ Peter Baker of the New York Times: "For three years, President Trump's critics have expressed concern over how he would handle a genuine international crisis, warning that a commander in chief known for impulsive action might overreach with dangerous consequences. In the angry and frenzied aftermath of the American drone strike that killed Iran's top general, with vows of revenge hanging in the air, Mr. Trump confronts a decisive moment that will test whether those critics were right or whether they misjudged him. 'The moment we all feared is likely upon us,' Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut and vocal critic of Mr. Trump, wrote on Twitter over the weekend. 'An unstable President in way over his head, panicking, with all his experienced advisers having quit, and only the sycophantic amateurs remaining. Assassinating foreign leaders, announcing plans to bomb civilians. A nightmare.'... [Trump] faces enormous skepticism from the critics who have long warned that he was too erratic to face moments of crisis.... [But] And some experts on the [Mideast] region suggested that Mr. Trump's very unpredictability was a deterrent in itself...." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: What Baker doesn't acknowledge is that this is a crisis of Trump's own making: first, by cancelling the nuclear deal with Iran, then by imposing crippling sanctions on Iran, then by overreacting to the murder of a U.S. contractor by making multiple strikes on militia sites, then by overreacting to protesters' attacks on the U.S. embassy in Tehran by assassinating Suleimani. So we already know how Trump "responds" to a crisis: (1) he creates it, and (2) he makes it worse & worse.

~~~ Lara Jakes of the New York Times: "More than 2,300 years ago, the Persian capital of Persepolis was burned by a foreign warrior in a fatal blow to the empire and its rich heritage. The ruins of the ancient city, in modern-day southwest Iran, could now be on President Trump's target list of 52 sites he has threatened to attack as tensions escalated between Washington and Tehran.... But the targeting of cultural sites is against international law, and critics denounced Mr. Trump for his statement.... The United States is a signatory to a 1954 international agreement to protect cultural property in armed conflict. Violating it with attacks on Iran's historical sites would represent a huge turnabout. The United States was among the harshest critics of the Islamic State's destruction of antiquities in Mosul, Iraq, and Palmyra, Syria, as well as the Taliban's obliteration of the Bamiyan Buddhas in Afghanistan in 2001.... By Sunday, under the hashtag #IranianCulturalSites, a Twitter campaign cropped up in the form of history buffs taking verbal aim at Mr. Trump's threat." See also unwashed's comment below. ~~~

~~~ Rick Noack of the Washington Post: "By suggesting strikes on '52 Iranian sites,' including some that are important to 'the Iranian culture,' Trump threatened a way of waging war that has drawn growing outrage in recent decades, critics argued Monday.... 'Targeting civilians and cultural sites is what terrorists do. It's a war crime,' tweeted Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In Britain, a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned that 'there are international conventions in place which prevent the destruction of cultural heritage.'... In March 2017 -- only weeks after Trump's inauguration -- the U.N. Security Council, with the United States as a permanent member, unanimously adopted a resolution condemning the 'unlawful destruction of cultural heritage, inter alia destruction of religious sites and artefacts' in armed conflicts.... But with a U.S. president now threatening to attack cultural sites in Iran, the narrative that the United States helped to advance now appears in doubt." ~~~

~~~ John Bellinger in Lawfare: "On Sunday, Jan. 5, President Trump -- as he is wont to do when criticized -- doubled down on his threat to bomb Iranian cultural sites if Iran attacks the United States in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. Although the United States is not a party to the Rome Statute, which makes intentional attacks on historic monuments a war crime, the United States is a party to the 1954 Hague Convention on Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict, which the Senate approved in September 2008, when I was legal adviser.... Trump and Vice President Mike Pence should learn the domestic and international law rules that govern the use of military force and the conduct of military operations and to understand why they are important." ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Chait: "The unfolding Iran adventure seems to open once again the question of what principle, if any, defines this president's foreign policy. Isolationism? Nationalism? Whatever Fox News is demanding at any given moment? His real North Star is in fact an idea he has explicated many times, but -- perhaps because it is so horrifying -- even his critics seem hesitant to accept as a true motivation. Trump's plan is to collapse the moral space between America and its enemies.... Our enemies are stronger and tougher, [Trump believes,] willing to do the hard things that must be done in order to win. To defeat them, we must become like them. Trump has long dismissed respect for human rights, international law, and innocent life as a form of political correctness.... The protective cordon surrounding Trump has eroded..., and it would be foolish to assume [aides] will necessarily succeed in stopping his latest unthinkable act.... From [his] premise that the authoritarians of the world are strong and correct, and its (small-d) democrats are politically correct fools, his broader recasting of America's alliances makes perfect sense. Of course he would draw the United States closer to Russia, the Gulf States, and the emerging autocrats of Europe...."

Wild Card. Nicholas Fandos & Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "John R. Bolton, the former White House national security adviser, said on Monday that he was willing to testify at President Trump's impeachment trial if he was subpoenaed. 'I have concluded that, if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify,' Mr. Bolton said in a statement on his website. The development is a dramatic turn in the impeachment proceeding, which has been stalled over Democrats' insistence on hearing from critical witnesses Mr. Trump blocked from testifying in the House inquiry.... Mr. Bolton is a potential bombshell of a witness, with crucial knowledge of the president's actions and conversations regarding Ukraine that could fill out key blanks in the narrative of the impeachment case. His willingness to tell the Senate what he knows ratchets up pressure on Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, who has refused to commit to calling witnesses at the impeachment trial, to change his stance. It is unclear how the White House will respond to Mr. Bolton's declaration, but his statement strongly suggested that he would testify regardless of whether Mr. Trump sought to prevent him." Politico's story is here.

Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "Julián Castro on Monday threw his backing behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren for president, only days after suspending his own bid for the White House. 'There's one candidate I see who's to fight like hell to make sure America's promise will be there for everyone, who will make sure that no matter where you live in America or where your family came from in the world, you have a path to opportunity, too,' Castro says in a video announcing his endorsement." The New York Times story is here.

~~~~~~~~~~

** Ben Hubbard, et al., of the New York Times: "Mr. Trump has said that the killing of General Suleimani on Friday was aimed at preventing war. But so far, it has unleashed a host of unanticipated consequences that could dramatically alter where the United States operates. Increasingly, the killing appeared to be generating effects far beyond the United States' ability to control. That may include Iran's nuclear future. On Sunday, the Iranian government said it was abandoning its 'final limitations in the nuclear deal,' the international agreement intended to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. The decision leaves no restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, the statement said, including on uranium enrichment, production, research and expansion." A Politico story is here. Mrs. McC: Obviously, this is what to expect when you privilege drones over diplomats. ~~~

~~~ David Sanger & William Broad of the New York Times: "When President Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, he justified his unilateral action by saying the accord was flawed, in part because the major restrictions on Iran ended after 15 years, when Tehran would be free to produce as much nuclear fuel as it wanted. But now, instead of buckling to American pressure, Iran declared on Sunday that those restrictions are over -- a decade ahead of schedule. Mr. Trump's gambit has effectively backfired. Iran's announcement essentially sounded the death knell of the 2015 nuclear agreement. And it largely re-creates conditions that led Israel and the United States to consider destroying Iran's facilities a decade ago, again bringing them closer to the potential of open conflict with what was avoided by the accord. Iran did stop short of abandoning the entire deal on Sunday..., and its foreign minister held open the possibility that his nation would return to its provisions in the future -- if Mr. Trump reversed course and lifted the sanctions he has imposed since withdrawing from the accord." ~~~

OMG, Trump thinks a crazed Tweet satisfies his War Powers Act obligations to Congress. Our President has taken us to the brink of war and is now vamping with no plan and no clue. Please, someone in the GOP, take the car keys - read the 25th Amendment. -- Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), in a tweet ~~~

~~~ Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "President Trump claimed Sunday that his tweets are sufficient notice to Congress of any possible U.S. military strike on Iran, in an apparent dismissal of his obligations under the War Powers Act of 1973. Trump's declaration ... was met with disbelief and ridicule from congressional Democrats.... 'These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner,' Trump tweeted from his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., late Sunday afternoon. 'Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless!' Trump's claim that the United States will retaliate against Iran 'perhaps in a disproportionate manner' also contrasts with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's statement hours earlier on 'Fox News Sunday' that the administration 'will take responses that are appropriate and commensurate with actions that threaten American lives.' The War Powers Act of 1973 mandates that the president report to lawmakers within 48 hours of introducing military forces into armed conflict abroad. On Saturday, the White House delivered a formal notification to Congress of the strike that killed Soleimani.... But the document, which is entirely classified, drew scathing criticism from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who said in a statement that the notification 'raises more questions than it answers.'" A Hill story is here. ~~~

~~~ Jim Sciutto of CNN: "Two senior US officials on Sunday described widespread opposition within the administration to targeting cultural sites in Iran should the United States launch retaliatory strikes against Tehran, despite ... Donald Trump saying a day before that such sites are among dozens the US has identified as potential targets.... Among those critics was Colin Kahl, former deputy assistant to President Barack Obama and national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, who tweeted on Saturday that targeting such sites would be 'a war crime' and that he finds it 'hard to believe the Pentagon would provide Trump targeting options that include' them." ~~~

     ~~~ MEANWHILE. Guardian liveblog: "Donald Trump has defended his threat to target Iranian cultural sites -- widely seen as a war crime -- if Tehran retaliates for the killing of General Qassem Suleimani.... Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One a day later, he sought to offer a justification. 'They're allowed to kill our people,' Trump said, according to a pool report. 'They're allowed to torture and maim our people. They're allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we're not allowed to touch their cultural site? It doesn't work that way.'" Mrs. McC: Actually, it does work that way, according to international law & U.S. military code. Government operatives are not "allowed" to commit war crimes. They face punishment when they do commit them. On the other hand, if it's an American who has committed a war crime, you're likely to pardon him. ~~~

~~~ Quint Forgey of Politico: "Congressional Democrats on Sunday expressed skepticism toward the evidence the Trump administration has cited to justify its killing of Iran's top military commander -- an explosive American military maneuver that inflamed regional tensions and heightened the potential for further conflict between Washington and Tehran. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) demanded that administration officials make public more details regarding the intelligence that precipitated ... Donald Trump's unexpected decision last week to order the drone strike targeting Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Islamic Republic's elite paramilitary Quds Force." ~~~

~~~ Zachary Cohen of CNN: "Top US national security officials continue to defend the Trump administration's claim that it killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in response to an impending threat to American lives, but the lack of evidence provided to lawmakers and the public has fueled lingering skepticism about whether the strike was justified.... The administration has failed to connect the dots in a way that provides a clear picture of an imminent threat and that argument has been obscured by inconsistent messaging from US officials.... In an interview with CNN Friday, Democratic Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico said more than once that he does not believe an attack on the United States was imminent as President Donald Trump and other top administration officials have said.... A ... US official raised additional questions about the motive for the strike, telling CNN it had presidential authorization at this level and they opted for a preemptive option after the previous moves of maximum pressure didn't change the Iranian pattern of behavior." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ David Atkins in the Washington Monthly: "Interventionists and anti-imperialists don't agree on much in foreign policy. But even if they take directly opposite approaches, they tend to agree that championing democratic values and human rights should be a primary goal of American foreign policy, and that it's better for other nations to see the United States as a friend than as an enemy. On both of those counts, Donald Trump's reckless decision to assassinate a prominent Iranian general has been a colossal failure.... The attack itself was ostensibly a violation of international law and Geneva Conventions. The president's gross threat the following day to attack Iranian cultural sites was an even clearer crime, and far less strategically or morally defensible.... Trump and his enablers have dramatically weakened the position of both America and western liberal values, setting the world on a much more dangerous course." ~~~

~~~ ** Alissa Rubin, et al., of the New York Times: "Lawmakers in Iraq heeded the demands of angry citizens and voted on Sunday to expel United States troops from the country after the United States ordered the killing of the Iranian leader of the elite Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, on Iraqi soil. The decision came as hundreds of thousands of mourners poured into the streets of Iran to pay their respects to General Suleimani, the most powerful figure in the country after the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The vote is not final until Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi of Iraq signs the draft bill. Earlier on Sunday, Mr. Mahdi indicated that he would do so.... American troops are in Iraq 'at the invitation' of the Iraqi government, according to the legal agreement between Baghdad and Washington. Presumably, if Baghdad withdrew that invitation, the United States would have to withdraw." A Deutsche Welle story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Pompeo, Minutes Earlier. Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday dismissed calls by Iraq's caretaker prime minister for a timetable for all foreign troops to exit the country.... 'He's under enormous threats from the very Iranian leadership that it is that we are pushing back against,' Pompeo said on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'We are confident that the Iraqi people want the United States to continue to be there to fight the counterterror campaign. And we'll continue to do all the things we need to do to keep America safe.' Pressed by host Chris Wallace on what the United States will do if the Iraqi parliament demands that American troops leave the country, Pompeo declined to say." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Riley Beggin of Vox: "Some Iraqi officials -- including Mahdi -- have complained that the US' attack on Soleimani violated Iraqi sovereignty. In a Sunday speech before Parliament recommending a 'yes' vote on the resolution, Mahdi told lawmakers ... Donald Trump spoke to him ahead of the strike and failed to mention it, according to the Washington Post's Mustafa Salim. Mahdi said he also explicitly told Trump the US was not to bring additional US military resources into the country." Beggin describes several complications surrounding the vote & how an expulsion of troops might play out. ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Swan of Axios: "The Trump administration tried, unsuccessfully, to persuade top Iraqi officials to kill a parliamentary effort to force the U.S. military out of Iraq, according to two U.S. officials and an Iraqi government official familiar with the situation.... Trump administration officials have warned senior Iraqi officials that Iraq would suffer dangerous consequences if the U.S. withdrew its military and its funding of the Iraqi security apparatus, according to sources familiar with the outreach. On the other hand, Trump has also told advisers he thinks it's ridiculous that America has been paying billions of dollars to support an Iraqi security apparatus that, in his view, is demonstrably incompetent, disloyal to America and close to Iran." ~~~

     ~~~ Update 2. Trump Threatens Iraq. Joanna Tan of CNBC: "... Donald Trump threatened Sunday to slap sanctions on Iraq after its parliament passed a resolution calling for the government to expel foreign troops from the country.... Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, the U.S. president said: 'If they do ask us to leave, if we don't do it in a very friendly basis, we will charge them sanctions like they've never seen before ever. It'll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame. We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that's there. It cost billions of dollars to build. Long before my time We're not leaving unless they pay us back for it.' He added that 'If there's any hostility, that they do anything we think is inappropriate, we are going to put sanctions on Iraq, very big sanctions on Iraq.'" ~~~

~~~ Stephen Collinson of CNN: "The Trump administration is already in danger of losing control of the swift chain reaction and political storm unleashed by its killing of Iran's top general, Qasem Soleimani.... Donald Trump's claim that the drone strike last week made Americans safer is being challenged by cascading events that appear to leave the US more vulnerable and isolated. The administration's basis for the attack also came under renewed suspicion after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNN that it was not 'relevant' for him to reveal how imminent the attacks on US interests were that Trump said Soleimani was planning.... Washington's European allies, meanwhile, distanced themselves from Trump's assault. The US-led ISIS coalition temporarily stopped action against the terror group to protect Iraqi bases from Iranian-backed militias." Mrs. McC: Otherwise, everything is going very smoothly. ~~~

~~~ Blame the Briefers! Daniel Politi of Slate: "Pentagon officials usually include a far-out option when they present possibilities to the president in order to make the others seem less extreme.... 'The Pentagon also tacked on the choice of targeting General Suleimani, mainly to make other options seem reasonable,' reports the [New York] Times. [Story by Helene Cooper & others also linked here yesterday.] At first, it seemed everything was going according to plan. Trump rejected the option to kill Soleimani to respond to a wave of recent Iranian-sponsored violence in Iraq.... Then things changed when protesters gathered outside the U.S. embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday.... Suddenly, Trump was worried that failing to respond to the protests would look weak. By Thursday, Trump had decided to go forward with the killing of Soleimani and 'top Pentagon officials were stunned,' reports the Times." ~~~

     ~~~ John Cole of Balloon Juice: "Don't give him any extreme options. The saying 'POWERPOINT IS GOING TO BE THE DEATH OF US' was not supposed to be literal." ~~~

~~~ Erin Cunningham of the Washington Post covers many of the weekend's developments in this report.

Ryan Browne & Michael Callahan of CNN: "Three Americans were killed in Sunday's terror attack in Kenya. The Americans -- a US service member and two civilian contractors working for the Defense Department -- were killed in the attack carried out by Al-Shabaab, US Africa Command, which is responsible for military relations with nations on the continent, confirmed to CNN. Two DOD members wounded in the attack are now in stable condition and are being evacuated, Africa Command said. The attack occurred at a Kenya Defense Force in Manda Bay, Kenya. Sources have previously told CNN that the base was used by US Special Operations forces working with the Kenyans.... Al-Shabaab has previously pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda."

Rachel Bade of the Washington Post: "Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey O. Graham suggested Sunday that Republicans should try to change Senate rules governing impeachment if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi continues to withhold the charges against President Trump -- an unlikely 11th-hour bid to begin a trial within days without the actual documents. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was unequivocal in a Senate floor speech on Friday that 'we can't hold a trial without the articles; the Senate's own rules don't provide for that.' But Graham (R-S.C.), a close ally of Trump, floated the idea of a unilateral GOP move, saying he would work with McConnell to allow the Senate to proceed without the two charges against Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The suggestion, while unlikely due to the high threshold of votes required for changing Senate impeachment rules, underscores the pressure some Trump allies feel as the president stews over the impeachment delay."

Presidential Race. David Leonhardt of the New York Times: "So where are you supposed to find a comfortably electable, qualified candidate who won't turn 80 while in office? Senator Amy Klobuchar has become an answer to that question in the final month before voting begins.... Her greatest strength is her understanding of how to beat Republicans.... I am also struck by Klobuchar's views about how to run against Trump this time -- to talk about how he has let down the country (which gives his old supporters permission to switch sides), to use humor against his demagoguery and to appeal to voters' emotions and patriotism.... Many Democratic voters care more about beating Trump than anything else. For them, Klobuchar deserves a look." Mrs. McC: Based on my reading of his NYT columns, Leonhardt is quite liberal. If he can consider voting for Klobuchar, I can too. And yeah, I'm still bothered by reports of her throwing stuff at staffers more than her too-moderate views.

** Hansi Lo Wang of NPR: "More than a year after his death, a cache of computer files saved on the hard drives of Thomas Hofeller, a prominent Republican redistricting strategist, is becoming public.... They have been cited as evidence of gerrymandering that got political maps thrown out in North Carolina, and they have raised questions about Hofeller's role in the Trump administration's failed push for a census citizenship question... Now more of the files are available online through a website called The Hofeller Files, where Hofeller's daughter, Stephanie Hofeller, published a link to her copy of the files on Sunday.... The files document the wide reach of Thomas Hofeller's work on political maps across the country -- including in Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia, as well as New York's Nassau County and Texas' Galveston and Nueces counties." --s

The Commentariat -- January 5, 2020

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

Zachary Cohen of CNN: "Top US national security officials continue to defend the Trump administration's claim that it killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in response to an impending threat to American lives, but the lack of evidence provided to lawmakers and the public has fueled lingering skepticism about whether the strike was justified.... The administration has failed to connect the dots in a way that provides a clear picture of an imminent threat and that argument has been obscured by inconsistent messaging from US officials.... In an interview with CNN Friday, Democratic Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico said more than once that he does not believe an attack on the United States was imminent as President Donald Trump and other top administration officials have said.... A ... US official raised additional questions about the motive for the strike, telling CNN it had presidential authorization at this level and they opted for a preemptive option after the previous moves of maximum pressure didn't change the Iranian pattern of behavior."

Alissa Rubin, et al., of the New York Times: "Lawmakers in Iraq heeded the demands of angry citizens and voted on Sunday to expel United States troops from the country after the United States ordered the killing of the Iranian leader of the elite Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, on Iraqi soil. The decision came as hundreds of thousands of mourners poured into the streets of Iran to pay their respects to General Suleimani, the most powerful figure in the country after the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The vote is not final until Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi of Iraq signs the draft bill. Earlier on Sunday, Mr. Mahdi indicated that he would do so.... American troops are in Iraq 'at the invitation' of the Iraqi government, according to the legal agreement between Baghdad and Washington. Presumably, if Baghdad withdrew that invitation, the United States would have to withdraw." A Deutsche Welle story is here. ~~~

~~~ Pompeo, Minutes Earlier. Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday dismissed calls by Iraq's caretaker prime minister for a timetable for all foreign troops to exit the country.... 'He's under enormous threats from the very Iranian leadership that it is that we are pushing back against,' Pompeo said on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'We are confident that the Iraqi people want the United States to continue to be there to fight the counterterror campaign. And we'll continue to do all the things we need to do to keep America safe.' Pressed by host Chris Wallace on what the United States will do if the Iraqi parliament demands that American troops leave the country, Pompeo declined to say."

~~~~~~~~~~

Seung Min Kim of the Washington Post: "The White House delivered a formal notification of the drone strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani to Capitol Hill Saturday, as required under the War Powers Act, according to a senior Democratic aide and another official familiar with the matter. The War Powers Act of 1973 mandates that the president report to lawmakers within 48 hours of introducing military forces into armed conflict abroad. Such notifications generally detail an administration's justification for U.S. intervention, as well as the constitutional and legislative rationale used by the administration to send troops.... The formal notification received at the Capitol on Saturday is entirely classified, according to the senior Democratic aide, and it is unclear whether the administration will issue a non-classified version that can be publicized." ~~~

First Trump Decided to Kill Soleimani, Then the Administration Came up with Intelligence to Justify It. Jonathan Lemire & Matthew Lee of the AP: "At the midway point of his annual Christmas vacation..., Donald Trump huddled at his Florida club with his top national security advisers. Days earlier, a rocket attack by an Iranian-funded group struck a U.S.-Iraqi base, killing an American contractor and wounding several others. Trump's advisers presented him with an array of options for responding, including the most dramatic possible response: taking out Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds Force and the man responsible for hundreds of Americans deaths. Trump immediately wanted to target Soleimani.... Some advisers voiced concern about the legal justification for a strike without evidence of an imminent attack in the works against Americans." ~~~

     ~~~ Helene Cooper, et al., of the New York Times write a similar story with different details. "Mr. Trump made the decision [to assassinate Suleimani], senior officials said on Saturday, despite disputes in the administration about the significance of what some officials said was a new stream of intelligence that warned of threats to American embassies, consulates and military personnel in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.... According to one United States official, the new intelligence indicated 'a normal Monday in the Middle East' -- Dec. 30 -- and General Suleimani' travels amounted to 'business as usual.' That official described the intelligence as thin and said that General Suleimani's attack was not imminent.... On Capitol Hill, Democrats voiced growing suspicions about the intelligence that led to the killing.... In Palm Beach, Fla., Mr. Trump lashed back [at Iran's threats to retaliate], promising to strike 52 sites across Iran -- representing the number of American hostages taken by Iran in 1979 -- if Iran attacked Americans or American interests. On Saturday night, Mr. Trump warned on Twitter that some sites were 'at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie to the Men & Women Who Serve Us in Dangerous Places: I know some of you are jerks & some of you are clueless but most of you are honorable public servants and all of you deserve to have a commander-in-chief who DOES NOT TWEET-SHOUT threats at our adversaries. Just sayin'. May the Fates bless you, every one. Oh, and did I mention that what Trump is threatening are war crimes? ~~~

     ~~~ Matt Naham of Law & Crime: "Legal observers immediately noted that attacking such sites of cultural importance is a war crime.... [Under] the Geneva Conventions..., 'it is prohibited: (a) to commit any acts of hostility directed against the historic monuments, works of art or places of worship which constitute the cultural or spiritual heritage of peoples; (b) to use such objects in support of the military effort; (c) to make such objects the object of reprisals.'... George Conway [in a tweet]: '@realDonaldTrump is too dumb to know it's a war crime, but also too demented to care.'" ~~~

~~~ Assassins Я Us. Ed Pilkington of the Guardian: "The US government is no stranger to the dark arts of political assassinations. Over the decades it has deployed elaborate techniques against its foes, from dispatching a chemist armed with lethal poison to try to take out Congo's Patrice Lumumba in the 1960s to planting poison pills (equally unsuccessfully) in the Cuban leader Fidel Castro's food. But the killing of Gen Qassem Suleimani, the leader of Iran's elite military Quds force, was in in a class its own. Its uniqueness lay not so much in its method ... but in the brazenness of its execution and the apparently total disregard for either legal niceties or human consequences.... Donald Trump's gloating tweets over the killing combined with a sparse effort to justify the action in either domestic or international law has led to the US being accused of the very crimes it normally pins on its enemies.... Most of the interventions in the modern era have been covert and conducted beneath the radar. Where they have been proclaimed publicly, they have tended to target non-state actors operating in militias or militant groups like Islamic State. By contrast, until Trump the US has tended to fight shy of conducting overt assassination attempts on state actors connected to sovereign regimes. Suleimani himself is a case in point." ~~~

~~~ The TV Presidunce* Summer Concepcion of TPM: "President Trump's dissatisfaction with media coverage when he halted an airstrike against Iran last year reportedly influenced his authorization of the strike that killed top Iranian military official Qasem Soleimani Thursday night.... Officials told the Post that Trump was also compelled to authorize the Soleimani strike due to what he viewed as negative coverage that ensued after his decision last year to call off the airstrike targeting Iran. Additionally, Trump held frustration over the details of his internal deliberations leaking out -- which he felt made him looked weak.... Lawmakers and aides who have spoken to Trump told the Post that the President's fixation on Benghazi and the Obama administration's response to it also played a role into his decision." --s ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: In addition, the Times story by Helene Cooper & others, linked above, centers on how surprised Trump's top aides were when he opted for the "most extreme option" they presented him: "After initially rejecting the Suleimani option on Dec. 28 and authorizing airstrikes on an Iranian-backed Shia militia group instead, a few days later Mr. Trump watched, fuming, as television reports showed Iranian-backed attacks on the American Embassy in Baghdad, according to Defense Department and administration officials." That is, it was TV coverage that caused him to opt for assassination. Still, the most shocking -- but not surprising -- part of Concepcion's report is that Trump thinks "deliberations make him look weak." A big part of a president's job is making decisions based on "deliberations." Yet Trump seems to think that accepting expert -- and not necessarily consistent -- advice is a weakness. ~~~

~~~ Conor Finnegan & Adia Robinson of ABC News: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday on ABC's 'This Week,' that the world is a safer place as a result of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani's death.... In response to a New York Times report about officials who questioned the rationale behind the strike, the secretary of state said there was no skepticism among senior leaders with access to all of the intelligence.... 'We're having to clean up their mess,' Pompeo said of the Obama administration...." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Anyone who can reason would question the notion that assassination of bad state actors makes the world "a safer place." And one certainly would think that anyone who held a powerful, high government position -- that is, someone who could be a target of assassins' plans -- would be able to reason this out. But no. ~~~

     ~~~ Robert Burns of the AP: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday the U.S. strategy in countering Iran is to target the country's 'actual decision-makers' rather than to focus on Iranian proxy forces in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East." Mrs. McC: Pompeo seems blissfully unaware that, say, he and Trump are "actual decision-makers." ~~~

~~~ "The World Is a Safer Place Today," Ctd. Zachary Cohen, et al., of CNN: "The Trump administration has warned members of Congress that Iran is expected to retaliate against the US 'within weeks' for the strike that killed Qasem Soleimani even as they failed to convince some that the operation was merited due to an imminent threat against American lives.There are also intense discussions taking place inside US military and intelligence agencies to assess whether Iran might be preparing some type of retaliatory strikes in the next few days or wait for some time, according to a US official with direct knowledge of the situation. 'There are conflicting views' on whether Iran will quickly retaliate or wait, but US military defenses are ready, the official said.Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley publicly addressed the issue of potential retaliation from Iran Friday. When asked whether there is now a risk to US safety in the region, Milley bluntly said, 'Damn right there is risk.'" ~~~

~~~ Joe Heim of the Washington Post: "Hundreds of demonstrators gathered in Lafayette Square across from the White House on Saturday afternoon to voice opposition to the deployment of additional U.S. troops to the Middle East, demand the removal of American forces from Iraq and warn against getting into a war with Iran.... Organized in Washington by Code Pink: Women for Peace and the ANSWER Coalition (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), the protest was one of dozens that took place Saturday in cities and towns across the country including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, Memphis, Salt Lake City and Tucson." ~~~

~~~ Deutsche Welle: "Several rockets fell in and around Baghdad on Saturday evening, [linked fixed] including an attack targeting an air base housing US troops, the Iraqi military said. Several rockets fell in the city's Jadriya neighborhood as well as the heavily fortified Green Zone which houses government buildings and several foreign missions, including the US Embassy. Blasts also targeted the the Balad air base, located 80 kilomteters (50 miles) north of Baghdad, which is hosting US troops in Iraq. Security sources told news agency AFP that surveillance drones were sent out above the base to locate the source of the rockets. Iraqi military added in their statement that there was 'no loss of life.'" (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Summer Concepcion of TPM: "During an appearance on Fox News host Sean Hannity's Friday night, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threw European allies under the bus for not coming around to President Trump's authorization of the strike that killed top Iranian military official Qasem Soleimani. When Hannity asked Pompeo what other countries have been telling him after the strike that killed Soleimani, the secretary of state said that he'd been 'talking to partners in the region' which has been 'fantastic.'... However, Pompeo added that 'talking to our partners in other places' such as European allies hasn't 'been quite as good.' 'Frankly, the Europeans haven't been as helpful as I wish that they could be,' Pompeo said. 'The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did -- what the Americans did -- saved lives in Europe as well.'" --s ~~~

~~~ Maanvi Singh of the Guardian: "In defense of his administration's decision to assassinate Qassem Suleimani, Mike Pence has been promoting conspiracy theories that link September 11 terrorists to Iran. In a series of tweets, the US vice-president ... insisted that the general 'assisted in the clandestine travel to Afghanistan of 10 of the 12 terrorists who carried out the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States', misstating the number of 9/11 hijackers -- there were 19 -- and insinuating Suleimani's involvement despite a lack of evidence. Foreign policy experts were quick to point out on social media that Pence's assertions were unsubstantiated. The official 9/11 commission report found there was 'no evidence that Iran or Hezbollah was aware of the planning for what later became the 9/11 attack', and that 15 out of the 19 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia, and the remainder were from the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon and Egypt. Moreover, Suleimani's name is never mentioned in the nearly 600-page report. Experts have also pointed out that Suleimani, a Shia leader, would have been an unlikely ally to the Sunni militants that carried out the attacks." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: If only the Senate would remove Trump from office, we would get a real stable genius sort of president. ~~~

~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Now that I've reread the Raw Story piece about Pompeo's calling Lavrov and have done some cursory research, I see I misread the story: Pompeo called Lavrov on Friday; that is, after the drone strike. By this time, someone at State had called Chuck Schumer, according to a teevee news report I heard. Schumer apparently said to the caller, "Thanks for telling me what I've already heard on the news." So my bad. I apologize. (See related stories linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Faith Hassan, et al., of the New York Times: "Even before the shock of the brazen killing wore off, Iraqi factions were weighing their responses. Militias with ties to Iran vowed bloody revenge. The prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, condemned the attack as 'an outrageous breach to Iraqi sovereignty' and said Parliament would meet to discuss the future of the United States presence in Iraq.... Throughout the country, there was the familiar feeling that Iraq was a mere bystander in the broader geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran taking place on Iraqi soil. More broadly, the events raised a single, overarching question: can the United States maintain a cooperative security relationship with Iraq given the upheaval the assassination has provoked?" (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Mark Mazzetti of the New York Times: "The powers of an American president to wage war have grown stronger for nearly two decades, ever since the Sept. 11 attacks led the United States into an era of perpetual conflict. Those powers are now in the hands of the most volatile president in recent memory. President Trump's decision to authorize the killing of a top Iranian military leader could be the match that sets off a regional conflagration, or it could have only marginal geopolitical impact like so many of the targeted killings ordered by Mr. Trump and his predecessors. But it is just the latest example of the capricious way in which the president, as commander in chief, has chosen to flex his lethal powers." ~~~

~~~ Susan Rice, in a New York Times op-ed: "Despite President Trump's oft-professed desire to avoid war with Iran and withdraw from military entanglements in the Middle East, his decision to order the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran's second most important official, as well as Iraqi leaders of an Iranian-backed militia, now locks our two countries in a dangerous escalatory cycle that will likely lead to wider warfare.... Given the demonstrably haphazard and shortsighted nature of the Trump administration's national security decision-making process (including calling off strikes against Iran 10 minutes before impact, inviting the Taliban to Camp David and abandoning the Kurds), it's doubtful the administration spent much time gaming out the second and third order consequences of their action or preparing to protect American military and diplomatic personnel in the region.... It's hard to envision how this ends short of war." ~~~

Matt Welch of Reason: "'Don't trust liars -- especially about matters of war and peace,' writes Vox's Matthew Yglesias. 'Today's a day,' The Atlantic's David Frum posits, 'when the most untruthful administration in US history will wish its statements could be believed.' It is appropriate, necessary, yet insufficient to remember that government lying is bad, that government lying about war is particularly bad, and that Donald Trump is one of the most bizarrely promiscuous liars ever seen in American political life. Insufficient, because laying the blame on one particular administration, or even one major political party, too often becomes a de facto credulousness about the war-related veracity of other administrations. The truth, which literally hurts, is that every administration lies about war, particularly (though not only) about its reasons for initiating deadly force. It was literally only last month that The Washington Post's 'Afghanistan Papers' project detailed how America's longest war has been a nearly two-decade festival of deadly bullshit." (Also linked yesterday.)

Peter Nicholas of the Atlantic on why Congressional Republicans have Trump's back: "No doubt congressional Republicans fear Trump because of his unshakable grip on the party's base.... But there's another reason they've shielded him from impeachment: He's wooed Republicans who can protect his interests, cultivating relationships with them in ways that are not always visible or understood.... Trump has built personal ties with key members of Congress that have cemented their loyalty.... Fundamentally, Trump's relationships with Congress are transactional. He works at them continually.... Since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi launched the impeachment proceedings in late September, Trump has dialed up the charm."

All Trump's Money Trails Lead to Russia. Scott Stedman, et al., of Forensic News: "Deutsche Bank's loans to Donald Trump were underwritten by Russian state-owned VTB Bank, according to the whistleblower whose collection of thousands of bank documents and internal communications have captured the recent attention of federal investigators.... Forensic News is not confirming the underlying claim that VTB underwrote Trump's loans from Deutsche Bank. Forensic News can, however, confirm that at least some of Trump's loans were issued by a bank subsidiary with business ties to VTB. That subsidiary owed more than $48 million to VTB in 2013 and documents suggest the subsidiary continued doing business with VTB even after the bank was sanctioned in 2014." Thanks to unwashed for the link. (Also linked yesterday.)

The Golden Bull. Richard Luscombe of the Guardian: "They came to pray with their president, though in truth many came just to worship him.... An estimated 7,000 'supporters of faith' packed the King Jesus international ministry megachurch in Miami to hear the word of the president, and decided that it was good. The Maga hat-wearing faithful cheered Trump's comments on issues calculated to resonate with his churchgoing audience, including abortion, freedoms of speech and religion, and what he claimed was a 'crusade' from Democrats against religious tolerance.... Friday's rally, hastily organized in the wake of a stinging Christianity Today editorial last month, recognized Trump's need to retain the loyalty of the evangelical voting bloc that propelled him to victory in 2016. Four years ago, he won 80% backing from white evangelical voters nationwide." (Also linked yesterday.)

Presidential Races 2016 & 2020

** Carole Cadwalladr of the Guardian: "An explosive leak of tens of thousands of documents from the defunct data firm Cambridge Analytica is set to expose the inner workings of the company that collapsed after the Observer revealed it had misappropriated 87 million Facebook profiles. More than 100,000 documents relating to work in 68 countries that will lay bare the global infrastructure of an operation used to manipulate voters on 'an industrial scale' is set to be released over the next months.... The documents were revealed to have come from Brittany Kaiser, an ex-Cambridge Analytica employee turned whistleblower, and to be the same ones subpoeaned by Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.... Emma Briant, an academic at Bard College, New York, who ... has had access to some of the documents for research, said that what had been revealed was 'the tip of the iceberg'. 'The documents reveal a much clearer idea of what actually happened in the 2016 US presidential election, which has a huge bearing on what will happen in 2020. It's the same people involved who we know are building on these same techniques,' she said." --s

Money Counts! Tess Bonn of the Hill: "Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg saw a 6-point bump in the latest Hill-HarrisX survey of the Democratic presidential primary. The nationwide poll, which was released Friday, shows Bloomberg up from 5 percent to 11 percent support for the nomination nationally. The former New York City mayor is now in a dead heat for third place with top-tier candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who also received 11 percent support. [Joe] Biden, meanwhile, continues to lead the Democratic field with 28 percent followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 16 percent." (Also linked yesterday.)

Way Beyond the Beltway

Australia. Livia Albeck-Ripka, et al., of the New York Times: "Four days after a bush fire ravaged the remote coastal town of Mallacoota, forcing people to shelter on the beach under blood-red skies, more than 1,000 stranded residents and vacationers arrived on Saturday in Hastings, a town near Melbourne. The authorities said it was most likely the largest peacetime maritime rescue operation in Australia's history. It was also a symbol of a country in perpetual flight from danger during a catastrophic fire season -- and the challenge the government faces in getting the blazes under control. Searing heat and afternoon winds propelled fires over large swaths of Australia on Saturday, adding to the devastation of a deadly fire season that has now claimed 23 lives. Thousands of people have been evacuated, while many towns and cities under threat were still smoldering from ferocious blazes that ripped through the countryside earlier in the week. More than 12 million acres have burned so far, an area larger than Switzerland, and the damage is expected to only get worse in the extremely arid conditions that are allowing the fires to spread. The fires are also so hot and so large that they are creating their own weather patterns, which can worsen the conditions." (Also linked yesterday.)

Hong Kong/China. Keith Bradsher of the New York Times: "The Chinese government abruptly replaced its top representative in Hong Kong on Saturday evening, installing a senior Communist Party official with a record of difficult assignments in inland provinces that involved working closely with the security services. The top representative, Wang Zhimin, was replaced as the head of the powerful Central Liaison Office in Hong Kong by Luo Huining, the official Xinhua news service said. The move came two months after the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee called for measures to 'safeguard national security' in Hong Kong, although few details have been released."