The Commentariat -- January 9, 2020

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

Julian Barnes, et al., of the New York Times: "An Iranian missile accidentally brought down a Ukrainian jetliner over Iran this week, killing everyone aboard, American and allied officials said on Thursday, adding a tragic coda to the escalated military conflict between Washington and Tehran. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said his country had intelligence that an Iranian surface-to-air missile brought down the jetliner, which was carrying 63 Canadians among its some 176 passengers and crew. Mr. Trudeau said his conclusion was based on a preliminary review of the evidence but called for a full investigation 'to be convinced beyond all doubt.'... A security camera captured the impact -- first the predawn darkness, then a series of blinding bursts of light in the distance, followed by a storm of burning debris in the foreground." The AP's story is here.

Parisa Hafezi & Babak Dehghanpisheh of Reuters: "A[n Iranian] Revolutionary Guards commander said Iran would take 'harsher revenge soon' after Tehran launched missile attacks on U.S. targets in Iraq in retaliation for last week's U.S. killing of an Iranian general, Tasnim news agency reported on Thursday."

Josh Gerstein of Politico: "A divided federal appeals court has lifted a lower court's order blocking $3.6 billion in military construction funds that ... Donald Trump planned to use to finance an expanded and improved border wall. The New Orleans-based 5^th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued a brief order on Wednesday granting the Trump administration's request to stay the injunction that U.S. District Court Judge David Briones, based in El Paso, Texas, issued last month." The plaintiffs have not decided whether or not to appeal the decision.

Jury Foreman Colludes with Slacker Defendant Living Large in Public Housing. Manu Raju, et al., of CNN: "... Mitch McConnell and ... Donald Trump met Wednesday at the White House and discussed the upcoming Senate impeachment trial, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. McConnell, one of the sources said, walked Trump through the trial format and discussed how Senate Republicans were reacting to the developments around the trial.... The senator from Kentucky has not shared with the White House the text of the resolution that would set up the trial, according to one of the sources, who insists there's no negotiation with the GOP leader's office on how the language should be drafted. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has demanded to see the resolution before sending the two articles of impeachment to the Senate."

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Catie Edmondson of the New York Times: "Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced on Wednesday that the House would vote on Thursday to force President Trump to quickly wind down military action against Iran unless he is given explicit authorization from Congress, opening what promised to be a searing debate over presidential war powers.... Congressional Democrats ... said the vote on Thursday would be on a measure that would require that Mr. Trump cease all military action against Iran unless Congress votes to approve it. Such a measure could face an uphill climb in the Republican-controlled Senate, but on Wednesday, two Republicans signaled they were inclined to support it, holding open the possibility of a razor-thin vote. Either way, it is certain to ignite a fierce debate over Mr. Trump's strategy on Iran, and Congress's role in curtailing a president's ability to wage war."

Worst Briefing Evah. Jordain Carney of the Hill: "GOP Sens. Mike Lee (Utah) and Rand Paul (Ky.) ripped the administration over a closed-door briefing on Iran on Wednesday, announcing they will now support a resolution reining in President Trump's military powers. Lee, speaking to reporters after a roughly hourlong closed-door meeting with administration officials, characterized it as 'the worst briefing I've seen, at least on a military issue.' Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, CIA Director Gina Haspel and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley were dispatched to brief both the House and Senate on Wednesday amid days of concerns from lawmakers that Trump was on a path to war with Iran, which on Tuesday night launched missiles at Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops. Lee said the officials warned that Congress would 'embolden' Iran if lawmakers debated Trump's war powers. 'I find this insulting and demeaning ... to the office that each of the 100 senators in this building happens to hold. I find it insulting and demeaning to the Constitution of the United States,' Lee said.... Paul ... knocked the administration for using the 2002 war authorization as the basis for last week's airstrike against an Iranian general." ~~~

~~~ Rebecca Kheel & Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Democrats said Wednesday that the Trump administration failed to present evidence supporting the claim that a top Iranian general killed in a U.S. drone strike was planning an imminent attack.... Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said the evidence represented a 'far cry' from an imminent attack, while Rep. Gerry Connollyn> (D-Va.) called the briefing 'sophomoric.'... Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said the administration 'did not establish in any way' that 'an imminent threat was posed.' Asked whether she was convinced, presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said flatly 'no.'"

Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Trump backed away from further military confrontation with Iran on Wednesday after a barrage of missiles fired at American troops killed no one and Tehran indicated that would be the end of its retaliation for the killing of a top general." Mrs. McC: Another one of the speeches Trump delivered in his "hostage" monotone. BTW, the brass who allowed themselves to be used as a shiny human backdrop for a speech that was bound to contains outrageous lies & misdirection (and of course it did) should be ashamed of themselves. Some of them managed to look like hostages, too, and that's probably how they felt. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ ** Liar, Liar. Linda Qiu of the New York Times: "President Trump, responding during a White House address on Wednesday to the missile strikes by Iran, assailed the nuclear agreement reached by his predecessor and praised American military might. The 10-minute address contained numerous inaccuracies and claims that lacked evidence. Here's a fact check." ~~~

~~~ Ashley Parker & Philip Rucker of the Washington Post: "Trump's handling of the Iran crisis in some ways epitomized his presidency, with his remarks containing striking contradictions and remaining open to interpretation. He was at once unyielding in his rhetoric against Iran building a nuclear weapon while open to talks with its leaders and pushing to involve NATO allies in diplomacy. Trump sought to extend his administration's 'maximum pressure' strategy by announcing toughened economic sanctions on Iran yet also promised to help the country build prosperity at home. He sounded both bellicose -- describing the arsenal of weapons at his disposal as 'big, powerful, accurate, lethal and fast' -- and dovish, saying he did not want to use it and was 'ready to embrace peace.'"

~~~ The Buck Stops with Obama. Brad Reed of the Raw Story: "... Donald Trump's big speech about the situation in Iran is not getting strong early reviews, in no small part because he spent much of it blaming former President Barack Obama for the current tensions with Tehran." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Steve Benen of MSNBC: "... it was ... discouraging to see and hear Trump deliver a strange speech to an anxious public, repeating a series of demonstrably false claims. Instead of ... striving for some semblance of national unity, Trump told Americans this morning, for example, that last night's missiles 'were paid for' with funds 'made available' by the Obama administration. That's absurd, and it's part of a bogus claim Trump has been repeating for many months. He went on to take credit for 'destroying 100% of ISIS,' which is plainly false, since ISIS hasn't been destroyed. He also boasted, 'We are now the number one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world,' which is true, though it's a status the United States reached in 2012. [Update: There were, of course, a variety of related factual missteps.] Just as alarming, Trump seemed eager to step on his own message. While embracing the idea of de-escalation, he added, 'The civilized world must send a clear and unified message to the Iranian regime: your campaign of terror, murder, mayhem, will not be tolerated any longer. It will not be allowed to go forward.' In the next breath, Trump suggested involving NATO in ... something related to the Middle East. It wasn't at all clear what exactly he had in mind.... Facing a credibility crisis, he lied. Facing a divided domestic electorate, he took partisan cheap shots at his predecessor. Facing questions about whether he's up to the task of leadership, he struggled with his trusted teleprompter and mispronounced a series of words." ~~~

~~~ Ben Mathis-Lilley of Slate: "The remarks that Donald Trump delivered about the Iran situation on Wednesday ... did not answer or even address many of the issues that concerned United States citizens might be wondering about.... Trump didn't discuss whether the U.S. is planning to withdraw forces from Iraq, as a letter that the Department of Defense issued but then disavowed Tuesday suggested. He said he is 'going to ask NATO to become much more involved in the Middle East process,' but didn't say anything about what that meant, or why any of the NATO countries would have an incentive to hear him out. He didn't explain, more broadly, what his administration wants from Iran.... Typically, these kinds of details might be filled in during background briefings by other high-ranking administration officials or by a White House press secretary. But there hasn't been a White House press briefing since March 2019, and there do not appear to have been any 'senior administration official' conference calls Wednesday about NATO.... Why worry about the details if the person in charge doesn't think about them either? He was mad enough to start a war but then maybe Tucker Carlson, on his TV, talked him out of it. Everything is fine for now." ~~~

~~~ ** Conservative David Frum of the Atlantic: "The Trump administration and its supporters seem to have hoped for a 'rally around the flag' effect from the killing of Soleimani. This did not happen. The fundamental geology of Donald Trump's presidency remains unchanged: A large majority of Americans do not trust him, do not support him, and will not follow him. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has complained that European allies do not support the Trump administration's actions. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell laments that Democrats in Congress will not support the president either.... Unlike the Clinton impeachment of 1998-99, [Trump's impeachment] commands the approval of a majority of Americans.... That's ... certainly sufficient to deprive the president of the legitimacy to lead the nation to war. The United States finds itself in the dangerous situation of having a president in power but without authority. He is the least trusted president in the history of polling. Two-thirds of Americans regard him as dishonest."

Kylie Atwood, et al., of CNN: "The top US general made clear Wednesday night that he believes Iran meant to kill US troops in the ballistic missile attack on US forces in Iraq, rebutting a belief among some Trump administration officials that Iran intentionally missed areas populated by Americans. 'I believe based on what I saw and what I know that they were intended to cause structural damage destroy vehicles and equipment and aircraft, and to kill personnel. That's my own personal assessment,' said Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, when speaking to reporters on Wednesday[.] Milley argued that the reason there were no casualties had 'more to do with the defensive techniques that our forces used as opposed to intent.'... The message runs counter to what some administration officials have suggested to CNN, which is that Iran could have directed their missiles to hit areas that are populated by Americans but intentionally did not. And those officials said Iran may have chosen to send a message rather than take significant enough action to provoke a substantial US military response, a possible signal the administration was looking for rationale to calm the tensions."

Shane Harris, et al., of the Washington Post: "U.S. officials said they knew by Tuesday afternoon that the Iranians intended to strike at American targets in Iraq, although it was not immediately clear exactly which they would choose. The early warning came from intelligence sources as well as from communications from Iraq that conveyed Iran's intentions to launch the strike, officials said.... In an address from the White House on Wednesday morning, President Trump credited an 'early warning system' for helping prevent loss of life. A defense official later said the president was referring to the radar network the military has searching for potential enemy missiles. At least two sources of intelligence gave the United States time to prepare." ~~~

~~~ The New York Times' behind-the-scenes story, by Mark Mazzetti & others, is here.

Peter Beaumont, et al., of the Guardian: "Iran's aviation authority will not hand over flight recorders from the Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 jet that crashed moments after take-off from Tehran killing all 176 passengers and crew, either to the aircraft's manufacturer or US aviation authorities.... 'This accident will be investigated by Iran's aviation organisation but the Ukrainians can also be present during the incident's investigation,' [said Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation head Ali Abedzadeh].... Announcing on his Facebook page that Ukraine would send a team of experts to Iran later on Wednesday, the country's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said: 'Our priority is to establish the truth and those responsible for this terrible catastrophe.'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ U.K. Telegraph: "Ukraine has refused to rule out that the plane that crashed in Iran and killed all 176 on board was struck by a missile.... Mr Zelensky instructed Ukraine's prosecutors to open criminal proceedings over the crash." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Jeff Wise, in New York, explains why it seems likely the aircraft was shot down. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Secret Services's Secret Expenses. Carol Leonnig & David Fahrenthold of the Washington Post: "The Trump administration is seeking to delay a Democratic effort to require the Secret Service to disclose how much it spends protecting President Trump and his family when they travel -- until after the 2020 election, according to people familiar with the discussions. The issue has emerged as a sticking point in recent weeks as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and key senators have been negotiating draft legislation to move the Secret Service back to his department, its historic home. Mnuchin has balked at Democratic demands that the bill require the Secret Service to disclose the costs related to the travel of the president and his adult children within 120 days after it is passed, according to people with knowledge of the talks. Mnuchin has agreed to Democrats' push for a requirement that the Secret Service report its travel expenses but wants such disclosures to begin after the election."

Alexandra Levine & Zach Montellaro of Politico: "Facebook is standing by its policies that allow politicians to lie to voters, while targeting their ads at narrow subsets of the public -- decisions with vast implications for the more than $1 billion in online campaign messaging expected in this year's elections. The online giant announced Thursday morning that it is not changing the most controversial elements of its approach to campaign ads, after months of a debate that has divided Silicon Valley and brought Facebook a barrage of criticism from Democrats. The critics have been most incensed by Facebook's refusal to fact-check politicians' claims, accusing the company of knowingly profiting from deception."

Michelle Lee of the Washington Post: "Democratic small-dollar donors gave $1 billion through the online fundraising platform ActBlue in 2019, officials said Thursday, highlighting the explosion of online giving on the left heading into the presidential election year. Of the 6 million donors who gave to Democratic candidates and organizations in 2019, half were first-time donors, officials said, pointing to the growing base of contributors who are giving online. Forty percent of the new donors gave multiple times, according to ActBlue, in a sign of the new donors' sustained political interest and engagement."

Dominic Rushe of the Guardian: "McDonald's is being sued by two African American executives who allege they suffered 'systematic but covert' racial discrimination at the fast-food giant. Vicki Guster-Hines and Domineca Neal, senior directors working for McDonald's in Dallas, allege that discrimination at the company worsened under the former chief executive Steve Easterbrook, who took over the company in 2015. UK-born Easterbrook was ousted from the firm last year after it was revealed he had been involved in a romantic relationship with a colleague that broke company rules. He left with over $37m in stock awards and a severance deal of $675,000. During Easterbrook's tenure, Guster-Hines and Neal allege, McDonald's 'conducted a ruthless purge' of high-ranking African Americans and shifted advertising away from black customers. The suit claims the number of African Americans in the top ranks of McDonald's operations fell to seven last year from 42 in 2014.... Guster-Hines and Neal were demoted from vice-president to senior director positions in July 2018 as part of a broader corporate restructuring conducted under Easterbrook."

Beyond the Beltway

Maryland. A Never-Trumper Just Like Trump. Ed Kilgore of New York: "... Governor Larry Hogan Jr. has made a habit of directing state transportation resources toward areas where his family real-estate business is heavily invested[.]... In ... occasions where state transportation decisions appear to have benefited the Hogan Companies, the governor's spokespersons -- when they've deigned to address the appearance of impropriety -- have tried to minimize the governor's personal role in project-specific decisions and have touted a 'trust agreement' that limits Hogan's involvement in company business.... One anonymous but well-placed source in the Maryland Department of Transportation ... says the governor signed off on every major decision made in his appointed secretary's name. And [in] the 'trust agreement' Hogan signed..., he retains almost complete access to the company's books and personnel." Kilgore's post is based on "a very extensive investigative report by the Washington Monthly's Eric Cortellessa...." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: It's probably fair to say that in many cases, the main difference between Trump & GOP Never-Trumpers is that they're running different scams.

Way Beyond

U.K. Kevin Rawlinson & Caroline Davies of the Guardian: "The Duke and Duchess of Sussex are to step back from senior roles in the royal family and work towards financial self-sufficiency after a period marked by open warfare with the media over claimed intrusion and bullying. It is understood that no other royal was consulted before the decision was announced on Wednesday evening, and Buckingham Palace was disappointed by the news. Prince Harry and Meghan plan to split their time between the UK and North America, the continent of her birth, as they raise their son, Archie.... The fact the couple did not consult the Queen or Prince Charles that they were to release their bombshell statement has caused disquiet at the heart of the monarchy. Discussions between the monarch and Charles about the couple's future role had only just begun, it is understood.... The couple have appeared increasingly unhappy in recent months with their public roles and the level of scrutiny they have faced.... Harry has inherited millions of pounds from his relatives' estates, including from his mother, and, prior to taking a public role, Meghan was a highly successful actor. The Queen also gave them a home to live in. Harry and Meghan indicated they would seek paid work in future and would fulfil some royal duties if asked to do so, suggesting such work would continue to be funded in the usual way."

News Ledes

New York Times: "Mamie Lang Kirkland died last month at her home in upstate New York. She was the mother of nine, the matriarch of another 158, a longtime saleswoman for Avon Products, and, at the time of her death, at 111, the oldest resident of Buffalo.... She was also the embodiment of the African-American experience of the 20th century, her life's long journey altered repeatedly by the racial violence and bigotry coursing through the United States. Lynchings, riots, the Ku Klux Klan -- she survived it all, and spent her centenarian years working to ensure that these realities never slipped from collective memory. Her life helped inspire the creation, in 2018, of the Legacy Museum and the National Memorial for Peace and Justice, in Montgomery, Ala. Both document the country's history of racial terrorism and encourage social justice."

New York Times: "Buck Henry, a writer and actor who exerted an often overlooked but potent influence on television and movie comedy -- creating the loopy prime-time spy spoof 'Get Smart' with Mel Brooks, writing the script for Mike Nichols's landmark social satire 'The Graduate' and teaming up with John Belushi in the famous samurai sketches on 'Saturday Night Live' -- died on Wednesday in Los Angeles. He was 89."

The Commentariat -- January 8, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Trump backed away from further military confrontation with Iran on Wednesday after a barrage of missiles fired at American troops killed no one and Tehran indicated that would be the end of its retaliation for the killing of a top general." Mrs. McC: Another one of the speeches Trump delivered in his "hostage" monotone. BTW, the brass who allowed themselves to be used as a shiny human backdrop for a speech that was bound to contains outrageous lies & misdirection (and of course it did) should be ashamed of themselves. Some of them managed to look like hostages, too, and that's probably how they felt. ~~~

~~~ Brad Reed of the Raw Story: "... Donald Trump's big speech about the situation in Iran is not getting strong early reviews, in no small part because he spent much of it blaming former President Barack Obama for the current tensions with Tehran."

Peter Beaumont, et al., of the Guardian: "Iran's aviation authority will not hand over flight recorders from the Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 jet that crashed moments after take-off from Tehran killing all 176 passengers and crew, either to the aircraft's manufacturer or US aviation authorities.... 'This accident will be investigated by Iran's aviation organisation but the Ukrainians can also be present during the incident's investigation,' [said Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation head Ali Abedzadeh].... Announcing on his Facebook page that Ukraine would send a team of experts to Iran later on Wednesday, the country's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said: 'Our priority is to establish the truth and those responsible for this terrible catastrophe.'" ~~~

~~~ U.K. Telegraph: "Ukraine has refused to rule out that the plane that crashed in Iran and killed all 176 on board was struck by a missile.... Mr Zelensky instructed Ukraine's prosecutors to open criminal proceedings over the crash." ~~~

~~~ Jeff Wise, in New York, explains why it seems likely the aircraft was shot down.

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New York Times live updates for Wednesday on developments in the Iran crisis are here.

"All Is Well." Really? Phil Helsel of NBC News: "'All is well!' ... Donald Trump tweeted Tuesday night after Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. The president also said he would make a statement Wednesday morning. 'Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!' the president tweeted." ~~~

~~~ MSNBC is reporting that Iran has said it won't launch new attacks if the U.S. does not retaliate. Mrs. McC: I can't find a print version of this, but the Guardian (@ 21:37 ET) has published a tweet from Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif: "Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression." ~~~

~~~ ** Hamdi Alkhshali, et al., of CNN: "Iran launched more than a dozen missiles at two Iraqi bases that hold US troops in what appears to be retaliation for the American airstrike that killed a top Iranian general last week, the Pentagon said Tuesday. A US official told CNN that there were no initial reports of any US casualties, but an assessment of the impact of the strikes is underway. There are casualties among the Iraqis at Ain al-Asad airbase following the attack, an Iraqi security source tells CNN. The number of casualties and whether the individuals were killed or wounded was not immediately clear. White House aides are making plans for a possible address to the nation by ... Donald Trump, according to two officials." ~~~

~~~ ** New York Times Live Updates (Tuesday): "Iran attacked two American bases in Iraq early Wednesday, Iranian official news media and United States officials said, the start of what Iran had promised would be retaliation for the killing of a top Revolutionary Guards commander. 'The fierce revenge by the Revolutionary Guards has begun,' Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement on a Telegram channel. Iranian news media reported the attacks hours after the remains of the commander, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, were returned to his hometown in Iran for burial. Hossein Soleimani, the editor in chief of Mashregh, the main Revolutionary Guards news website, said that more than 30 ballistic missiles had been fired at the American base at Asad, in Anbar Province, in western Iraq. There were also rockets fired at an American base in Erbil, in northern Iraq." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: According to Richard Engel of NBC News, these are Iraqi bases that house American troops. Engel suggests that the attacks could make Iraq even more adamant about forcing the U.S. to "reposition" its troops to someplace not Iraq. More on this below.

Daniel Victor, et al., of the New York Times: "A Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 carrying 176 people on Wednesday crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing everyone on board. The circumstances of the crash are not fully known. The Iranian state news media cited technical problems on the plane, which was bound for Kyiv.... The disaster happened against the backdrop of the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which on Tuesday attacked two bases in Iraq that house American troops. It also has the potential to add to the crisis at Boeing, which has been dealing with the fallout from two crashes involving a different jet.... After the crash, Ukraine's Embassy in Iran initially issued a statement ruling out terrorism or a rocket attack as a cause of the crash. But the statement was later removed from the embassy's website and replaced by a statement saying it was too early to draw any conclusions about what had happened." A Reuters story is here.

Matt Stieb of New York: "On Tuesday, the president of the United States reluctantly walked back his threat to commit war crimes by bombing cultural sites in Iran. 'They are allowed to kill our people,' Trump said before reporters in the White House. 'They are allowed to maim our people, they're allowed to blow up everything that we have and there's nothing to stop them. We are, according to various laws, supposed to be very careful with their cultural heritage. And you know what, if that's what the law is, I like to obey the law.' Though that last point could be contested -- his career before politics suggests a businessman that does not like to obey the law -- his comment is a major backpedal from his Saturday threat to strike 52 cultural sites in Iran, one for each of the Americans held during the hostage crisis following the 1979 revolution. [On Sunday,] Trump even doubled down on the threat.... Trump's reversal on a topic he has expressed great interest in -- by pardoning and campaigning with accused U.S. war criminals and threatening to commit war crimes as a candidate in 2015 -- was likely influenced by pushback in his administration." ~~~

~~~ Brett Samuels & Morgan Chalfant of the Hill: "President Trump on Tuesday said he did not intend to quickly move troops from Iraq in his first lengthy comments about Middle East turbulence following the U.S. air strike that killed a top Iranian military general.... 'Eventually we want to be able to let Iraq run its own affairs, and that's very important. So at some point we want to get out. But this isn't the right point,' Trump told reporters during a meeting with the Greek prime minister Tuesday."

Nicole Gaouette & Jennifer Hansler of CNN: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday defended the basis for killing Iranian General Qasem Soleimani because of the threat of an imminent strike but declined to present any evidence, saying President Donald Trump's decision was 'entirely legal.'... Pompeo ... didn't offer any evidence of looming threats, but instead referred to past events that he said Soleimani was responsible for." The story will be updated. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Watch that POS lie to Andrea Mitchell about Trump's repeated threats to destroy Iran's cultural sites. Ken W. posited in today's comments that Pompouspeo is a chicken. Pompeo went on the teevee to prove it (again) today:

~~~ Pompeo's "Credibility Problem." Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a news conference Tuesday in which some believed that he walked back just how 'imminent' a threat Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani posed. Asked about the topic, Pompeo pretended journalists were too consumed with that word (even though Pompeo has used it). And then rather than shed new light, Pompeo opted to talk about what Soleimani had already done, before adding that Soleimani's campaigns could 'lead potentially to the death of many more Americans.'... Pompeo is an imperfect messenger taking the lead for a notoriously untruthful president.... He'll often be asked to account for the things Trump says and pretend that the mere question is ludicrous.... NBC's Andrea Mitchell asked Pompeo whether he would prevent Trump from [attacking Iran's cultural sites], and Pompeo pretended the question was ridiculous.... 'I was unambiguous on Sunday. It is completely consistent with what the president has said,' [Pompeo told Mitchell.] Except it's not. And the fact that Pompeo insists it is ... makes it difficult to take him at face value. Now is the time when something like that matters most." ~~~

~~~ ** This Is Mike's Mess. Edward Wong & Lara Jakes of the New York Times: "Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was the loudest voice in the administration pushing President Trump to kill Iran's most important general. This week, he is back in his role as the nation's top diplomat, trying to contain the international crisis the general's death created.... As Iran begins retaliating aggressively, Mr. Pompeo, 56, could become known as the man who helped lead the United States into another conflict in the Middle East -- breaking one of Mr. Trump's key campaign promises just as the president faces re-election.... Days after becoming secretary of state in 2018, Mr. Pompeo pushed Mr. Trump to withdraw from the nuclear agreement and reimpose strict sanctions on Iran.... In April, he advised Mr. Trump to designate as a foreign terrorist organization the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, an arm of the Iranian military that includes General Suleimani's elite Quds Force.... The upheaval is unfolding at a pace that Mr. Trump and top aides never expected, officials said. Millions of Iranians have taken to the streets to protest General Suleimani's killing -- a drastic change from only weeks ago, when demonstrators were denouncing the rulers in Tehran. European allies have expressed anger to Mr. Pompeo over the strike, which they were not told about in advance. And Mr. Pompeo has been unable to convince Iraq's government that the United States remains a reliable partner."

Mustafa Salim, et al., of the Washington Post: "The Iraqi government has interpreted a letter delivered by the U.S. military advising of a 'repositioning' of U.S. forces as a signal of an intent to withdraw, Iraqi officials said Tuesday, even as the Pentagon strenuously denied that any decision has been made to pull out of the country that has embroiled the U.S. military in conflict for most of the past 30 years. The letter delivered to the office of Iraq's caretaker prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, on Monday cited 'deference' to a vote in the Iraqi parliament calling on all foreign forces to leave by way of explaining an expected increase in U.S. helicopter activity over the Baghdad airport in the 'coming days and weeks.' The U.S. military wants 'to ensure that the movement out of Iraq is conducted in a safe and efficient manner,' the letter said. Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the letter a 'mistake' and a 'poorly worded' draft. U.S. military officials said such letters are routine, intended to keep their Iraqi counterparts abreast of intended U.S. troop movements to avoid misunderstandings." ~~~

~~~ Ron DePasquale of the New York Times: "NATO is removing some of the trainers who have been working with Iraqi soldiers battling the Islamic State, in the aftermath of the American killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani of Iran in Baghdad.The NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, announced on Monday that the training had been temporarily suspended. For the security of NATO personnel, the organization said in a statement that it would be taking precautions -- including 'the temporary repositioning of some personnel to different locations both inside and outside Iraq.'NATO, which has been running the training operation since 2018, will continue to maintain a presence in Iraq and remains committed to fighting international terrorism, an official said, while refusing to divulge details about troop movements." ~~~

~~~ Bruce Campion-Smith of the Toronto Star: "Canada is moving some of the troops deployed to help improve security in Iraq out of that country to ensure their safety amid rising regional tensions following Washington's targeted killing of a prominent Iranian general. Canada joined other allies such as Germany, Romania and Croatia in promising to shift personnel as concerns mounted over the threat of regional violence. Those fears were realized just hours after the plan was announced when Iran fired a barrage of missiles targeting U.S. and coalition forces at Iraqi military bases at at Al-Assad and Erbil." ~~~

~~~ Jeff Stein & Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post: "Senior administration officials have begun drafting sanctions against Iraq after President Trump publicly threatened the country with economic penalties if it proceeded to expel U.S. troops, according to three people briefed on the planning.... Such a step would represent a highly unusual move against a foreign ally that the United States has spent almost two decades and hundreds of billions of dollars supporting. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were discussing internal deliberations, emphasized talks were preliminary and no final decision has been made on whether to impose the sanctions." The Hill has a summary of the WashPo report. (Also linked yesterday.)

Lachlan Markay & Asawin Suebsaeng of The Daily Beast: "As President Trump grappled with how to respond to Iran throughout the last year, one of the people he turned to for advice was his personal attorney and unofficial envoy, Rudy Giuliani. The former New York City mayor has had a long-standing interest in Iranian affairs. He was once paid by organizations linked to an Iranian dissident group formally designated by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization -- until Giuliani helped get the outfit off the terror list.... As recently as the summer of 2018, Giuliani appeared on stage at an event for the People's Mojahedin of Iran, known by its Farsi acronym, MEK.... There's no indication that Giuliani plugged the MEK specifically in his discussions with the president, or that he's promoted specific military or foreign policy proposals. But Giuliani acknowledges that his beliefs fall on the aggressive end of the policy spectrum when it comes to Iran policy." --s

Mehdi Hasan of the Intercept explains Trump's Iran debacle -- s:

~~~ Daniel Nakamura & Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post: "President Trump has sought to demonstrate strong and decisive leadership in the targeted killing of Iran's top general, but he has overseen a chaotic and mistake-prone public response since the operation.... In the days after a U.S. military drone killed Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani near the Baghdad airport, Trump and his top advisers have refused to provide details of what prompted the decision to strike and offered conflicting accounts over whether Soleimani was coordinating imminent attacks on U.S. facilities in the Middle East. The lack of clear information continued late Tuesday in Washington, after Iran said it retaliated for Soleimani's death with missile attacks on military bases in Iraq. The White House announced Trump would make no public remarks in response Tuesday night, nor would any other senior administration officials. Hours later, Trump tweeted that he would address the nation Wednesday morning."

Eric Tucker of the AP: "The killing of a top Iranian general has ratcheted up the anxiety of families of Americans held in Iran, one month after the release of a New Jersey student had given them hope. The Trump administration has made a priority of bringing home hostages held abroad, but the prospect of a forthcoming resolution for the handful of captives in Iran seems to have dimmed with the two nations edging dangerously close to conflict and warning of retaliatory strikes and continued agitation." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Burgess Everett & Marianne Levine of Politico: "Senate Republican leaders are preparing to move forward on a set of impeachment trial rules without Democratic support. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is on the verge of having sufficient backing in his 53-member caucus to pass a blueprint for the trial that leaves the question of seeking witnesses and documents until after opening arguments are made, according to multiple senators. That framework would mirror the contours of President Bill Clinton's trial and ignore Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's demands for witnesses and new evidence." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: The reporters don't mention that during Clinton's impeachment trial, Ken Starr's witch hunt had got plenty of first-hand evidence, from Monica Lewinsky to Bill Clinton's deposition & DNA. Claiming the Trump rules "mirror" the Clinton rules is a crock when you figure in, as is necessary, Trump's forceful stonewall. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) Update: NPR ran exactly the same kind of report Tuesday afternoon; they made McConnell & Republicans seem fair & reasonable. ~~~

~~~ Olivia Beavers & Mike Lillis of the Hill: "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is leaning into her plans to withhold sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate, amplifying her position Tuesday that she won't deliver them until she knows what a trial in the upper chamber will look like. Pelosi, writing in a letter to her Democratic colleagues, called on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to promptly unveil the resolution that will lay out the guidelines for the trial centered on President Trump's contacts with Ukraine and whether they warrant his removal from office. The Democratic leader dug in on her plans to withhold the articles after McConnell announced at a press conference earlier in the day that Republicans 'have the votes' to pass a resolution to start the impeachment trial without requiring additional witnesses and key documents.... The Democratic leader also continued to hammer McConnell for his earlier remarks that he would be in 'total coordination' with the White House on strategy for the impeachment trial. ~~~

~~~ Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Tuesday that Democrats will force votes on witnesses at the start of the impeachment trial even as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has secured enough support to delay the decision until mid-trial. 'Make no mistake, on the question of witnesses and documents, Republicans may run but they can't hide. There will be votes at the beginning on whether to call the four witnesses we've proposed and subpoena the documents we've identified,' Schumer said.... McConnell wants to pass two resolutions: The first, at the outset of the trial, would only deal with the rules. The Senate could then pass a second resolution, after opening arguments and questions from senators, that would determine which, if any, witnesses will be called."

Josh Gerstein & Darren Samuelsohn of Politico: "Federal prosecutors on Tuesday called for up to six months of prison time for Michael Flynn, arguing that the former Trump national security adviser's shift to a more combative defense strategy shows he's no longer exhibiting the remorse he did when he pleaded guilty in 2017 to a felony charge of lying to the FBI. The notable shift in the Justice Department's stance comes after it initially said it was open to a sentence of probation as Flynn's punishment when he was cooperating with government investigators in special counsel Robert Mueller's sprawling investigation of ties between Donald Trump's campaign and Russia.... After providing the government significant help -- participating in 19 interviews with the Mueller team and other Justice Department prosecutors -- he reversed course by hiring a new team of lawyers, who have tried without success to get the initial case dismissed." The New York Times story is here.

Jim Mustian & Alan Suderman of the AP: "Federal prosecutors on Tuesday charged a major donor to ... Donald Trump's inaugural committee with obstructing a federal investigation into whether foreign nationals unlawfully contributed to the inaugural celebrations. The donor, Imaad Zuberi, recently pleaded guilty in a separate case in Los Angeles to campaign finance violations, tax evasion and failing to register as a foreign agent. A criminal information filed Tuesday in Manhattan federal court accuses Zuberi, a globe-trotting Los Angeles venture capitalist, of taking' numerous steps' to interfere with the investigation into where the inaugural committee received its funding. Prosecutors say Zuberi backdated a $50,000 check and also deleted emails. Zuberi, a prolific fundraiser who has also donated large sums to Democrats, gave $900,000 to Trump's inaugural committee in the months after the president's 2016 election. The criminal complaint says that donation 'was in fact funded using money obtained from other sources,' including a would-be inaugural donor The Associated Press has identified as Murat Guzel, a Turkish-American businessman who has ties to the administration of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan [and is a member of the Democratic National Committee]." Mrs. McC: Looks like the only kind of "convictions" these guys are likely to have are the ones that may land them in jail.

** Frank Rich, in a long New York essay on the fate of Vichy Republicans: "... Trump collaborators are kidding themselves if they think that post-Trump image-laundering through 'good works' or sheer historical amnesia will cleanse their names of the Trump taint as easily as his residential complexes in Manhattan have shed their Trump signage. A century of history -- and not just American history -- says otherwise.... The stench of disrepute that will cling to Trump's collaborators is likely to exceed the posthumous punishment of Nixon's dead-enders for the simple reason that Nixon's White House horrors weren't in the same league."

Presidential Race

Quint Forgey of Politico: "The chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Tom Perez, said on Tuesday that the party organization would reschedule next week's presidential primary debate in Iowa if the televised event conflicts with ... Donald Trump's impeachment trial in the Senate."

Alex Kantrowitz of BuzzFeed News: "... Donald Trump’s reelection campaign is wasting little time capitalizing on the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Just three days after the death of the head of Iran's Quds Force, the president's reelection campaign began to run hundreds of ads praising Trump for ordering the killing -- a decision that had been declined by presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama."

Alex Isenstadt of Politico: "... Donald Trump's reelection campaign is planning to drop $10 million to advertise during the Super Bowl, the start of a massive election-year spending spree that will intensify over the coming months, according to four people briefed on the plans. The campaign has purchased 60 seconds of commercial time during the Feb. 2 Super Bowl, which is likely to be the most-watched television event of the year. The ad or ads -- it's unclear whether it will be a single 60-second spot or a pair of 30-second commercials -- are expected to run early in the game, when viewership is likely to be at its highest."

Presidential Race 2024. In case you are a fan of Nikki Haley, Ed Kilgore of New York -- with a little help from Aaron Blake & Philip Bump of the Washington Post -- will disabuse you of your admiration for that sweet-faced harridan. ~~~

~~~ Jill Filipovic in a CNN opinion piece: "How much has Trumpism broken the GOP? Just look at Nikki Haley.... On Fox News Monday, Haley made the despicable claim that Democratic leaders and Democratic candidates for president are 'the only ones that are mourning the loss of Soleimani,' the leader of Iran's Quds Force who was killed by a Trump-ordered attack. Never mind that there's no evidence -- not one iota -- for this claim. Not a single Democratic leader, candidate or other politician, 'mourned' Soleimani or expressed sadness over the man's death. To the contrary: They nearly to a one noted that he was a vicious actor, a man with the blood of thousands on his hands. But they also did what real stateswomen and men are supposed to do: Analyze the full picture."

Melanie Zanona of Politico: "Rep. Duncan Hunter will officially step down from Congress next week, more than a month after the California Republican pleaded guilty to conspiracy to misuse campaign funds. Hunter had previously said he would leave Congress after the holidays. His resignation will take effect Jan. 13, according to a copy of the letter he sent to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Tuesday.... Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) does not have to call a special election because the nomination period has closed and it's an election year, raising the prospect that the seat could remain vacant for the rest of 2020."

Michael Sainato of the Guardian: "A December 2019 poll conducted by Gallup found 25% of Americans say they or a family member have delayed medical treatment for a serious illness due to the costs of care, and an additional 8% report delaying medical treatment for less serious illnesses.... Despite millions of Americans delaying medical treatment due to the costs, the US still the most on healthcare of any developed nation in the world, while covering fewer people and achieving worse overall health outcomes.... A 2009 study conducted by researchers at Harvard Medical School found 45,000 Americans die every year as a direct result of not having any health insurance coverage. In 2018, 27.8 million Americans went without any health insurance for the entire year." --s

The Image of Innocence. Monica Hesse of the Washington Post: "A black SUV pulled to the curb [in front of a Manhattan courthouse Monday], and as Harvey Weinstein emerged from the passenger side, his metal walker was fetched from the back. An assistant hastened it over to the disgraced movie mogul, who then began his hunched shuffle past photographers. The walker's legs were inserted into yellow tennis balls, which -- and here seems like an appropriate place to mention that Weinstein's films were often celebrations of costume design and attention to detail -- looked dingy. Weinstein had back surgery last month. It's entirely possible that the walker was necessary to his recovery (before the surgery, critics noted that he used the walker for public court appearances, but appeared to walk unaided when privately shopping).... When Weinstein arrived for the opening of his highly anticipated trial, he'd assembled a meticulous wardrobe for a specific character: a weakened man.... Weinstein's career was about accruing power. His alleged crimes were about abusing it. And his defense is about erasing it, a special effect communicating that he's either too broken to punish or, possibly, to have committed the crimes in the first place." See also Patrick's comment in yesterday's thread.

Beyond the Beltway

Arizona, etc. Thankfully, He's a Republican. Jacques Billeaud of the AP: "An elected official in metro Phoenix resigned Tuesday, months after being charged with running a human smuggling operation that paid pregnant women from the Marshall Islands to give up their babies in the U.S. The resignation of Maricopa County Assessor Paul Petersen came after leaders in the one of the nation's most populous counties suspended and pressured him to resign after his arrest nearly three months ago. The county's governing board voted in late December to start the process of removing Petersen, who also works as an adoption attorney. He is accused of illegally paying women from the Pacific island nation to come to the United States to give up their babies in at least 70 adoption cases in Arizona, Utah and Arkansas over three years. Citizens of the Marshall Islands have been prohibited from traveling to the U.S. for adoption purposes since 2003.... Authorities say the women who went to Utah to give birth received little or no prenatal care. They also said Petersen and his associates took passports from the pregnant women while they were in the U.S. to assert more control over them.... Petersen previously rejected calls to resign and was fighting his 120-day unpaid suspension. Thousands of files related to his adoption business were discovered on his government laptop, cementing the board's push to remove him. Content recovered on the laptop included text messages of pregnant women being threatened when they changed their minds about giving up their newborns." The Arizona Republic story is here. ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: In case you're wondering how Petersen came up with this deplorable enterprise, the AP has the answer: "As a member of The Church of Jesus Christs of Latter-day Saints, he completed a proselytizing mission in the Marshall Islands...." Divine!

The Commentariat -- January 7, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Nicole Gaouette & Jennifer Hansler of CNN: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday defended the basis for killing Iranian General Qasem Soleimani because of the threat of an imminent strike but declined to present any evidence, saying President Donald Trump's decision was 'entirely legal.'... Pompeo ... didn't offer any evidence of looming threats, but instead referred to past events that he said Soleimani was responsible for." The story will be updated. ~~~

~~~ Watch that POS lie to Andrea Mitchell about Trump's repeated threats to destroy Iran's cultural sites. Ken W. posited in today's comments that Pompouspeo is a chicken. Pompeo went on the teevee to prove it (again) today:

Jeff Stein & Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post: "... administration officials have begun drafting sanctions against Iraq after President Trump publicly threatened the country with economic if it proceeded to expel U.S. troops, according to three people briefed on the planning.... Such a step would represent a highly unusual move against a foreign ally that the United States has spent almost two decades and hundreds of billions of dollars supporting. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were discussing internal deliberations, emphasized talks were preliminary and no final decision has been made on whether to impose the sanctions." The Hill has a summary of the WashPo report.

Eric Tucker of the AP: "The killing of a top Iranian general has ratcheted up the anxiety of families of Americans held in Iran, one month after the release of a New Jersey student had given them hope. The Trump administration has made a priority of bringing home hostages held abroad, but the prospect of a forthcoming resolution for the handful of captives in Iran seems to have dimmed with the two nations edging dangerously close to conflict and warning of retaliatory strikes and continued agitation."

Burgess Everett & Marianne Levine of Politico: "Senate Republican leaders are preparing to move forward on a set of impeachment trial rules without Democratic support. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is on the verge of having sufficient backing in his 53-member caucus to pass a blueprint for the trial that leaves the question of seeking witnesses and documents until after opening arguments are made, according to multiple senators. That framework would mirror the contours of President Bill Clinton’s trial and ignore Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's demands for witnesses and new evidence." Mrs. McC: The reporters don't mention that during Clinton's impeachment trial, Ken Starr's witch hunt had got plenty of first-hand evidence, from Monica Lewinsky to Bill Clinton's deposition & DNA. Claiming the Trump rules "mirror" the Clinton rules is a crock when you figure in, as is necessary, Trump's forceful stonewall.

~~~~~~~~~~

Allan Smith of NBC News: "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., announced the House will vote soon on a war powers resolution to limit ... Donald Trump's military actions after he ordered the killing of a top Iranian general last week, escalating tensions with Tehran. 'Last week, the Trump administration conducted a provocative and disproportionate military airstrike targeting high-level Iranian military officials,' Pelosi said in a letter to colleagues Sunday. 'This action endangered our servicemembers, diplomats and others by risking a serious escalation of tensions with Iran. As members of Congress, our first responsibility is to keep the American people safe,' she continued. 'For this reason, we are concerned that the administration took this action without the consultation of Congress and without respect for Congress’s war powers granted to it by the Constitution.' She said the House resolution is similar to one introduced in the Senate by Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Sarah Ruiz-Grossman of the Huffington Post: "The Trump administration blocked Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's top diplomat, from entering the United States, Foreign Policy reported Monday. The diplomat planned to come to the U.S. to address the United Nations Security Council in a meeting on Jan. 9, when he was expected to speak on the assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani by the U.S. Unnamed diplomatic sources ... said [the move] violates a 1947 agreement with the U.N. that the U.S. allow foreign officials into the country for U.N. affairs. A Trump administration official called U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres on Monday to tell him Zarif would not be allowed in, a source told Foreign Policy.... The Iranian mission to the U.N. told HuffPost that, as of late Monday, it had not yet received 'any official word' from the U.S. or U.N. on Zarif’s visa." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: A great way to garner more sympathy for Iran. Shades of Rudy, but worse. New York Times (Oct. 25, 1995): "A day after Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani expelled Yasir Arafat from a concert for world leaders at Lincoln Center, the Clinton Administration sharply criticized the Mayor yesterday for what Washington officials called an embarrassing breach of international diplomacy. Mr. Giuliani, clearly relishing the controversy, insisted that he could never forgive and play host to Mr. Arafat even though the Palestinian leader has been embraced as a peacemaker by the Israeli and United States Governments." ~~~

~~~ Mike Baker & Caitlin Dickerson of the New York Times: "More than 100 people of Iranian descent appear to have [been detained by Customs & Border Protections agents] at Washington [state]'s border with Canada over the weekend, a process Gov. Jay Inslee described on Monday as the inappropriate 'detention' of people -- some of them United States citizens — who had done nothing wrong.... Border agents often require people seeking admittance at the border to undergo a process known as secondary screening -- which appears to have occurred in Washington, and in lesser numbers at other ports of entry. An agency official told members of Congress on Monday that leaders in local offices had been 'asked to remain vigilant and increase their situational awareness given the evolving threat environment.' A half-dozen people of Iranian descent who were held for additional questioning in Washington described extensive questioning about their family and background.... Legal advocates at a Monday news conference in Seattle described several cases of travelers being questioned about their feelings about the United States and what was happening in Iran.”

Oops! They Really Don't Know WTF They're Doing. Lolita Baldor & Robert Burns of the AP: “For a few tense hours Monday, the United States appeared to have announced that American troops were pulling out of Baghdad after nearly 17 years.... 'Here's the bottom line, this was a mistake,' Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said as he tried to unravel a knot of miscommunication.... The bungled message started when a draft letter from Marine Brig. Gen. William Seely began circulating on social media. Addressed to an official at the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, the letter said U.S. troops would be 'repositioning forces' to prepare for 'onward movement.' Seely added, 'We respect your sovereign decision to order our departure.' The 'order' Seely mentioned was a reference to the Iraqi parliament's vote over the weekend to expel U.S. troops after an American drone attack killed a top Iranian general in Baghdad. A flurry of news reports followed Seely’s letter, saying the United States was ending its military presence in Iraq. But after a few hours of denials and frantic phone calls, top Pentagon leaders tried to do damage control, stating flatly that the U.S. had no plans to leave and saying the letter was a poorly worded draft that never should have gone out. 'Nobody's leaving,' Milley said. 'There's no onward movement. Honest mistake.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Maybe Milley should say the same thing about the assassination of Suleimani: "POTUS* is an idiot. Didn't mean to kill anybody. Honest mistake.” ~~~

     ~~~ Update. According to Rachel Maddow, the letter was not just "circulating on social media." It was delivered to Iraq's defense minister. Here's how the AP report puts it: "It's not entirely clear who leaked the letter. According to Milley, the draft was circulated to key Iraqi officials as part of a coordination process to let them know about ... increased helicopter movements. Officials say it was first posted on the website of an Iranian-backed militia group." Here's a photo of the letter.

Farnaz Fassihi & David Kirkpatrick of the New York Times: "In the tense hours following the American killing of a top Iranian military commander, the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made a rare appearance at a meeting of the government's National Security Council to lay down the parameters for any retaliation. It must be a direct and proportional attack on American interests, he said, openly carried out by Iranian forces themselves, three Iranians familiar with the meeting said Monday. It was a startling departure for the Iranian leadership. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Tehran had almost always cloaked its attacks behind the actions of proxies it had cultivated around the region."

New York Times live updates (Tuesday): "Iranian state-run news outlets reported a deadly stampede during the funeral procession for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani in his hometown, Kerman, in southeastern Iran, on Tuesday. Millions were reported to have flooded the town's streets to witness the procession for the general.... At least 35 may have been killed, one news service reported, according to The Associated Press.... The general's body had been flown to Kerman after a funeral in Tehran on Monday that had brought even bigger crowds into the streets of the Iranian capital." An AP story is here. ~~~

~~~ New York Times live updates (Monday): "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wept and offered prayers over the coffin of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani at the funeral in Tehran on Monday, as throngs of people filled the city's streets to mourn.... Ayatollah Khamenei had a close relationship with the general, who was widely considered to be the second most powerful man in Iran. The military commander was hailed as a martyr, and his successor swore revenge during the funeral ceremony, while chants of 'Death to America' rang out from the crowds in the capital." An AP story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Nasser Karimi & Jon Gambrell of the AP: "The funeral for Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani drew a crowd said by police to be in the millions in the Iranian capital, filling thoroughfares and side streets as far as the eye could see. Although there was no independent estimate, aerial footage and Associated Press journalists suggested a turnout of at least 1 million, and the throngs were visible on satellite images of Tehran taken Monday."

AFP: "The US killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was meant to cripple Tehran's clout in the Middle East, but analysts see the allies of the Islamic Republic closing rank instead."

Peter Baker of the New York Times: "For three years, President Trump's critics have expressed concern over how he would handle a genuine international crisis, warning that a commander in chief known for impulsive action might overreach with dangerous consequences. In the angry and frenzied aftermath of the American drone strike that killed Iran's top general, with vows of revenge hanging in the air, Mr. Trump confronts a decisive moment that will test whether those critics were right or whether they misjudged him. 'The moment we all feared is likely upon us," Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut and vocal critic of Mr. Trump, wrote on Twitter over the weekend. 'An unstable President in way over his head, panicking, with all his experienced advisers having quit, and only the sycophantic amateurs remaining. Assassinating foreign leaders, announcing plans to bomb civilians. A nightmare.'... [Trump] faces enormous skepticism from the critics who have long warned that he was too erratic to face moments of crisis.... [But] And some experts on the [Mideast] region suggested that Mr. Trump's very unpredictability was a deterrent in itself...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: What Baker doesn't acknowledge is that this is a crisis of Trump's own making: first, by cancelling the nuclear deal with Iran, then by imposing crippling sanctions on Iran, then by overreacting to the murder of a U.S. contractor by making multiple strikes on militia sites, then by overreacting to protesters' attacks on the U.S. embassy in Tehran by assassinating Suleimani. So we already know how Trump "responds" to a crisis: (1) he creates it, and (2) he makes it worse & worse. ~~~

~~~ Paul Krugman: "... Trump's latest attempt to bully another country has backfired -- just like all his previous attempts. From his first days in office, Trump has acted on the apparent belief that he could easily intimidate foreign governments.... That is, he imagined that he faced a world of Lindsey Grahams, willing to abandon all dignity at the first hint of a challenge. But this strategy keeps failing; the regimes he threatens are strengthened rather than weakened, and Trump is the one who ends up making humiliating concessions.... Under his leadership, we've become nothing more than a big, self-interested bully.... Trump officials seem taken aback by the uniformly negative consequences of the Suleimani killing.... But that's what happens when you betray all your friends and squander all your credibility." ~~~

~~~ Michelle Goldberg of the New York Times: "After three harrowing years, we've reached the point many of us feared from the moment Donald Trump was elected. His decision to kill Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran's second most important official, made at Mar-a-Lago with little discernible deliberation, has brought the United States to the brink of a devastating new conflict in the Middle East.... The administration has said that the killing of Suleimani was justified by an imminent threat to American lives, but there is no reason to believe this.... The Washington Post reported that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- who last year agreed with a Christian Broadcasting Network interviewer that God might have sent Trump to save Israel from the 'Iranian menace' -- has been pushing for a hit on Suleimani for months.... It's hard to see how this ends without disaster."

Peter Baker & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper ... on Monday [ruled] out military attacks on cultural sites in Iran if the conflict with Tehran escalates further, despite President Trump's threat to destroy some of the country's treasured icons. Mr. Esper acknowledged that striking cultural sites with no military value would be a war crime, putting him at odds with the president, who insisted such places would be legitimate targets.... 'We will follow the laws of armed conflict,' Mr. Esper said at a news briefing at the Pentagon when asked if cultural sites would be targeted as the president had suggested over the weekend. When a reporter asked if that meant 'no' because the laws of war prohibit targeting cultural sites, Mr. Esper agreed. 'That's the laws of armed conflict.'" The AP story is here. Mrs. McC: Note how Esper evades a direct answer, even as -- when pressed -- he goes further than Pompeo did Sunday when asked the same question. The correct answer to the first question is "POTUS* is an idiot. Of course the U.S. doesn't target cultural sites. We aren't gonna do it." ~~~

~~~ Lara Jakes of the New York Times: "More than 2,300 years ago, the Persian capital of Persepolis was burned by a foreign warrior in a fatal blow to the empire and its rich heritage. The ruins of the ancient city, in modern-day southwest Iran, could now be on President Trump's target list of 52 sites he has threatened to attack as tensions escalated between Washington and Tehran.... But the targeting of cultural sites is against international law, and critics denounced Mr. Trump for his statement.... The United States is a signatory to a 1954 international agreement to protect cultural property in armed conflict. Violating it attacks on Iran's historical sites would represent a huge turnabout. The United States was among the harshest critics of the Islamic State's destruction of antiquities in Mosul, Iraq, and Palmyra, Syria, as well as the Taliban's obliteration of the Bamiyan Buddhas in Afghanistan in 2001.... By Sunday, under the hashtag #IranianCulturalSites, a Twitter campaign cropped up in the form of history buffs taking verbal aim at Mr. Trump's threat." See also unwashed's commentary below. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Rick Noack of the Washington Post: "By suggesting strikes on '52 Iranian sites,' including some that are important to 'the Iranian culture,' Trump threatened a way of waging war that has drawn growing outrage in decades, critics argued Monday.... 'Targeting civilians and cultural sites is what terrorists do. It's a war crime,' tweeted Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In Britain, a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned that 'there are international conventions in place which prevent the destruction of cultural heritage.'... In March 2017 -- only weeks after Trump's inauguration -- the U.N. Security Council, with the United States as a permanent member, unanimously adopted a resolution condemning the 'unlawful destruction of cultural heritage, inter alia destruction of religious sites and artefacts' in armed conflicts.... But with a U.S. president now threatening to attack cultural sites in Iran, the narrative that the United States helped to advance now appears in doubt." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ John Bellinger in Lawfare: "On Sunday, Jan. 5, President Trump -- as he is wont to do when criticized — doubled down on his threat to bomb Iranian cultural sites if Iran attacks the United States in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. Although the United States is not a party to the Rome Statute, which makes intentional attacks on historic monuments a war crime, the United States is a party to the 1954 Hague Convention on Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict, which the Senate approved in September 2008, when I was legal adviser.... Trump and Vice President Mike Pence should learn the domestic and international law rules that govern the use of military force and the conduct of military operations and to understand why they are important." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Chait: "The unfolding Iran adventure seems to open once again the question of what principle, if any, defines this president's foreign policy. Isolationism? Nationalism? Whatever Fox News is demanding at any given moment? His real North Star is in fact an idea he has explicated many times, but -- perhaps because it is so horrifying -- even his critics seem hesitant to accept as a true motivation. Trump's plan is to collapse the moral space between America and its enemies.... Our enemies are stronger and tougher, [Trump believes,] willing to do the hard things that mut be done in order to win. To defeat them, we must become like them. Trump has long dismissed respect for human rights, international law, and innocent life as a form of political correctness.... The protective cordon surrounding Trump has eroded as his first term draws to a close, and it would be foolish to assume [aides] will necessarily succeed in stopping his latest unthinkable act.... From [his] premise that the authoritarians of the world are strong and correct, and its (small-d) democrats are politically correct fools, his broader recasting of America's alliances makes perfect sense. Of course he would draw the United States closer to Russia, the Gulf States, and the emerging autocrats of Europe...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

** Wild Card. Nicholas Fandos & Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "John R. Bolton, the former White House national security adviser, said on Monday that he was willing to testify at President Trump's impeachment trial if he was subpoenaed. 'I have concluded that, if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify,' Mr. Bolton said in a statement on his website. The development is a dramatic turn in the impeachment proceeding, which has been stalled over Democrats' insistence on hearing from critical witnesses Mr. Trump blocked from testifying in the House inquiry.... Mr. Bolton is a potential bombshell of a witness, with crucial knowledge of the president's actions and conversations regarding Ukraine that could fill out key blanks in the narrative of the impeachment case. His willingness to tell the Senate what he knows ratchets up pressure on Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, who has refused to commit to calling witnesses at the impeachment trial, to change his stance. It is unclear how the White House will respond to Mr. Bolton's declaration, but his statement strongly suggested that he would testify regardless of whether Mr. Trump sought to prevent him." Politico's story is here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Like me, Ed Kilgore of New York is not all that convinced that John Bolton would be the great game-changer some prognosticators anticipate. Kilgore: "For all we know, this career-long defender of presidential power may share the White House's view opposing disclosure of virtually any communication between the president and his staff. And even if he throws shade at some of his rivals on that staff, or joins many Trump defenders willing to throw Rudy Giuliani totally under the bus, it's a big leap from there to 'Trump's removal from office.' You may be wondering why Bolton suddenly decided to testify after deferring to the courts to determine whether a House subpoena would persuade him to testify. It's likely because any Senate subpoena would actually be signed by the Senate trial's presiding officer, the chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, and no inferior federal judge would be likely to brush that aside." ~~~

~~~ Marianne Levine & John Bresnahan of Politico: "Despite John Bolton's willingness to testify about the Ukraine scandal, the GOP-controlled Senate has no immediate plans to subpoena him in ... Donald Trump's impeachment trial -- a win for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the White House. While Democrats have called for testimony from Trump's former national security adviser, so far there's no sign that they will secure support from four Republicans they would need to follow through on their demand.... On Monday, [GOP Sens. Susan] Collins and [Lisa] Murkowski both signaled they wanted to begin the trial first. 'I believe that the Senate should follow the precedent that was established in the trial of President Clinton,' Collins said, echoing McConnell's argument. 'I think that we will decide at that stage who we need to hear from.'... Even vulnerable Republicans, such as Cory Gardner of Colorado, who faces a competitive reelection race in 2020, expressed no interest in hearing from Bolton." ~~~

~~~ Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said on Monday that he wants to hear from John Bolton after the former White House national security adviser offered to testify in President Trump's impeachment trial if subpoenaed. Romney told reporters ... that he wants to hear from Bolton and find out 'what he knows' about Trump's dealings with Ukraine." ~~~

~~~ Jordain Carney: "Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said on Monday that she supports delaying a decision on which, if any, witnesses should testify until after the start of President Trump's impeachment trial. With that decision Murkowski aligns herself with the process advocated by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and bolsters the chances that Republicans -- absent an 11th hour deal with Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) -- will be able to force through their own impeachment rules. 'I think we need to do what they did the last time they did this ... and that was to go through a first phase, and then they reassessed after that,' Murkowski told reporters after leaving McConnell's office." Mrs. McC: My, it does sound as if Mitch is a very good arm-twister. ~~~

~~~ Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post: "Facts subsequent to the House impeachment have become known that directly pertain to Trump's conduct and, to boot, a critical witness is now suddenly available. Do Senate Republicans try to sweep all that under the rug, risking that Bolton will later tell his story publicly and incriminate a president whose misdeeds the Senate helped cover up?... House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is in the driver's seat because she wisely held up the articles of impeachment. She can now turn to the Senate and say: Agree upon rules for the trial that guarantee Bolton's and other key witnesses' appearance or we will hold on to the articles and subpoena Bolton ourselves.... It is now time for all of them, including Bolton, [Mick] Mulvaney, Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Office of Management and Budget official Michael Duffey ... and White House national security aide Robert Blair ... to do their civic duty and step forward. Moreover, it's time for senators to do their duty and uphold their oaths as senators and as jurors."

Maybe This Guy Wants to Testify, Too. Wesley Morgan & Connor O'Brien of Politico: "Eric Chewning, chief of staff to Defense Secretary Mark Esper, is stepping down at the end of the month, the latest in a series of high-profile civilians to leave the Pentagon. He'll be replaced by Jen Stewart, the top Republican staffer on the House Armed Services Committee and a former top adviser to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, according to a statement from Pentagon spokeswoman Alyssa Farah.... Chewning was featured in a recently released trove of unredacted emails that show Pentagon officials' concerns with the legality of White House moves this summer to hold up military assistance to Ukraine, an issue at the center of ... Donald Trump's impeachment.... Chewning ... wrote that a memo to OMB, which warned that the Ukraine aid was in danger of not being fully spent by the end of the fiscal year, will have to wait until after a September meeting between Vice President Mike Pence and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Poland. 'We expect the issue to get resolved then,' he wrote to [acting Pentagon comptroller Elaine] McCusker." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Rachel Maddow is interested in knowing what-all pence was going to tell Zelensky that would "resolve the issue." And it makes me wonder how it's possible that pence, who was tasked with getting the issue with Zelensky resolved, also "was unaware of Trump's efforts to press Zelensky for damaging information about Biden and his son.... Officials close to Pence contend that he traveled to Warsaw for a meeting with Zelensky on Sept. 1 probably without having read -- or at least fully registered -- the transcript of Trump's July 25 call with the leader of Ukraine. White House officials said that Pence probably would have received the detailed notes of the president's call in his briefing book on July 26. The five-page document also should have been part of the briefing materials he took with him to Warsaw to prepare for the meeting...." That's the wholly improbable cover story pence aides gave the WashPo. It's as if Pheidippides ran from Athens to Sparta but didn't deliver the message because it hadn't "fully registered." (As it happens, the Spartans were a lot like Zelensky: they got the message but they didn't fulfill the request.)

Megan Mineiro of Courthouse News: "Federal prosecutors told a judge Monday they are prepared to release sealed materials in search and seizure warrants against Roger Stone issued during the FBI probe into the Trump campaign's ties to Russia. U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper in Washington opted for the government's proposed 60-day timeline to hand the sealed court records over to a coalition of media outlets that sued for the secret materials last year.... Cooper was randomly assigned the case after U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson, who oversaw Stone's trial, recused herself based on a conflict with a member of the media coalition."

Tess Owen of Vice: "A senior employee at a for-profit immigrant detention center in Nevada was active on the neo-Nazi site Iron March and aspired to establish a white nationalist chapter in his area.Travis Frey, 31, is currently employed as a captain at the Nevada Southern Detention Center, which is run by private prison behemoth CoreCivic and contracted with ICE. Frey joined Iron March in 2013, and posted at least a dozen times between 2016 and 2017 while he was working as head of security at a CoreCivic jail in Indianapolis, which was also authorized to house detainees on behalf of ICE.... On Iron March, Frey used the screen name 'In Hoc Signo Vinces,' a Latin phrase that's used by military outfits around the world, and by universities, and was the title of the American Nazi Party's manifesto. VICE News was able to identify Frey ... through some of the personal information he provided on Iron March...." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: But we sure Owen didn't bring his virulent racist proclivities to work.

Presidential Race

Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "Julián Castro on Monday threw his backing behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren for president, only days after suspending his own bid for the White House. 'There's one candidate I see who's unafraid to fight like hell to make sure America's promise will be there for everyone, who will make sure that no matter where you live in America or where your family came from in the world, you have a path to opportunity, too,' Castro says in a video announcing his endorsement." The New York Times story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

Senate Race, Kansas. Maggie Haberman, et al., of the New York Times: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday told Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, that he does not plan to run for Senate in 2020, most likely ending Republicans' hopes of securing a potentially dominant candidate for the open seat in his home state of Kansas, according to four people briefed on the meeting. Mr. Pompeo, a former congressman from the Wichita area, has quietly explored a campaign for months. But in the aftermath of the military operation last week that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani of Iran. Mr. Pompeo has told senior party officials that he is ruling out becoming a candidate, according to several people who have spoken with him directly." Politico has the story here.

Jan Ranson & Jose Del Real of the New York Times: "The Los Angeles County district attorney, Jackie Lacey, said [Harvey] Weinstein [was] charged [Monday] with one felony count each of forcible rape, forcible oral copulation, sexual penetration by use of force and sexual battery by restraint [in the cases of two women he (allegedly) accosted at a Hollywood film festival in 2013]. He faces up to 28 years in prison if convicted.... Only hours before prosecutors in Los Angeles unveiled the new case against Mr. Weinstein, he had hobbled with a walker into a courtroom in Manhattan for a hearing on the eve of his long-anticipated rape trial there. Jury selection was to begin on Tuesday." An AP story is here.

News Lede

CNN: "A 6.4-magnitude earthquake rocked Puerto Rico early Tuesday morning, just one day after a 5.8 magnitude quake shook the island, according to the US Geological Survey. The 6.4 quake struck at 3:24 a.m. local time about 6 miles south of Indios, Puerto Rico, the USGS said. The mayor of Guayanilla, just north Indios, reported damage to homes and a church. There were no immediate reports of injuries, Mayor Nelson Torres said in a phone interview with CNN affiliate WAPA."