The Commentariat -- February 18, 2019

Afternoon Update:

Philip Bump of the Washington Post explains to dummies, including Donald Trump, why Andrew McCabe's assertions about high-level DOJ officials considering an invocation of the Twenty-fifth Amendment is not an attempted "coup," as Trump & his surrogates have described what happened in May 2017. "... removing a president from office using systems included in the Constitution is, by definition, not a coup. Removing Trump from office by following the guidelines of the 25th Amendment would no more be a coup than removing him from office through impeachment or, really, than voting for another candidate in 2020. It's part of the system.... If [DAG Rod] Rosenstein asked half the Cabinet and Pence to oust Trump and they agreed, it's hard to see how the culpable party was Rosenstein. These are people chosen by Trump! His removal would be on their hands. But what's more, Trump would have a mechanism to respond. He could simply send a letter to Congress saying that he is fit for office, and he is then reinstated. Some coup. If, however, Pence and the Cabinet members still think Trump is unfit, the question would go to Congress, where two-thirds majorities in each chamber would have to agree. So that's half the Cabinet, the vice president and scores of lawmakers who would ultimately need to declare that Trump should be removed from office before it could happen." ...

... Jacob Solis of the Nevada Independent: "Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren said Sunday in Las Vegas that Trump administration officials have an obligation to invoke the 25th Amendment if they believe the president cannot fulfill his duties. The comment came in response to former acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe telling CBS's '60 Minutes' that then-acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein had considered the idea out of concern for Trump's 'capacity and about his intent at that point in time,' referring to the days after Trump fired James B. Comey as FBI director. '... if they believe that Donald Trump cannot fulfill the obligations of his office, then they have a constitutional responsibility to invoke the 25th amendment,' Warren, a Democratic presidential candidate, said after a rally in Las Vegas. 'Their loyalty under law is not to him personally. It is to the Constitution of the United States and to the people of United States.'" ...

... our President is simply too unstable to carry out the duties of the highest executive office -- which include the specific duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed -- in a competent and professional manner. He is simply in the wrong place. -- William Weld, former Massachusetts governor (R) & presidential candidate ...

... Charles Pierce suggests a headline more suited than the three major papers posted to reports on Trump's Friday "national emergency" presser: "The President* is A Delusional Maniac With Sawdust Pouring Out Of Both Ears.... The man is not all there. Everybody knows it. If your uncle behaved like the president* behaved on Friday, you'd hide his car-keys, lock up the booze, and drive him to the neurologist."

Bob Mueller has a task: It's Russian interference and potential collision in the 2016 election. Southern District of New York is whatever the heck you want. -- Chris Christie, earlier this month ...

... Darren Samuelsohn of Politico: "Even as speculation mounts that special counsel Robert Mueller might be winding down his investigation, a parallel threat to ... Donald Trump only seems to be growing within his own Justice Department: the Southern District of New York. Manhattan-based federal prosecutors can challenge Trump in ways Mueller can't. They have jurisdiction over the president's political operation and businesses -- subjects that aren't protected by executive privilege, a tool Trump is considering invoking to block portions of Mueller's report. From a PR perspective, Trump has been unable to run the same playbook on SDNY that he's used to erode conservatives' faith in Mueller, the former George W. Bush-appointed FBI director. Legal circles are also buzzing over whether SDNY might buck DOJ guidance and seek to indict a sitting president."

     ... Who is the Real President*? (a) Man on left; (b) Man on right; (c) Neither of the above:

BBC: "Seven MPs have resigned from [Britain's] Labour Party in protest at Jeremy Corbyn's approach to Brexit and anti-Semitism."

*****

Real Presidents Morph:

The Damage He Has Done. Steven Erlanger & Katrin Bennhold of the New York Times: "... in the last few days of a prestigious annual security conference in Munich, the rift between Europe and the Trump administration became open, angry and concrete, diplomats and analysts say.... The most immediate danger, diplomats and intelligence officials warned, is that the trans-Atlantic fissures now risk being exploited by Russia and China.... [Trump's] distaste for multilateralism and international cooperation is a challenge to the very heart of what Europe is and needs to be in order to have an impact in the world. But beyond the Trump administration, an increasing number of Europeans say they believe that relations with the United States will never be the same again.... The most visible pushback against Washington came from Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany -- who delivered an unusually passionate speech -- and from her defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen. They spoke about the dangers of unilateral actions by major partners without discussing the consequences with allies.... To show solidarity with Europe, more than 50 American lawmakers, both Republicans and Democrats -- a record number -- attended the Munich Security Conference. They came, said Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat of New Hampshire, 'to show Europeans that there is another branch of government which strongly supports NATO and the trans-Atlantic alliance.'" ...

... Griff Witte & Michael Birnbaum of the Washington Post: "Amid the gloom of a security conference focused on the breakdown in transatlantic relations under President Trump, Joe Biden offered beleaguered Europeans a ray of hope this weekend. 'This too shall pass,' the former vice president promised. 'We will be back.' The comment earned Biden, a possible candidate for president in 2020, sustained applause from a crowd that clearly wanted to believe the United States will return to a more familiar role as trusted friend after two years of Trump turning on allies and cozying up to adversaries. But Europeans are not convinced that Biden, or anyone, can deliver. Even if Democrats beat Trump when he vies for reelection next year, U.S. allies say the damage will be difficult to reverse. They point to long-term trends in the United States -- especially a growing skepticism toward global engagement -- that suggest key elements of Trumpism will live on, regardless of how long he serves or who succeeds him.... or many attendees, the collapse of the liberal world order as built and sustained by the United States for the past seven decades was taken as a given. The only question is, as the title of the conference's flagship report framed it, 'Who will pick up the pieces?'" ...

Melanie Schmitz of ThinkProgress: "President Donald Trump demanded that Europe take back hundreds of ISIS fighters captured in Syria, in the administration's latest move that appeared likely to worsen relations between the United States and its formerly staunch allies across the Atlantic.... Trump's tweet ended in an ultimatum. 'The alternative is not a good one in that we will be forced to release them,' the president wrote.... If the United States chooses to release its own prisoners -- many of whom were radicalized in Europe and fled to Syria to join up with ISIS -- it could cause additional fracturing between longstanding allies. The government of Britain immediately issued a warning Sunday, telling Trump it would prevent the prisoners' return." --s ...

     ... UPDATE: Reuters: "France will for now not act on U.S. President Donald Trump's call for European allies to repatriate hundreds of Islamic State fighters from Syria, taking back militants on a 'case-by-case' basis, its justice minister said on Monday.... Germany, too, was cool toward Trump's demands, saying it could only take back Islamic State fighters if the suspects had consular access." --s

The craziest thing about the Baldwin SNL opener was that it wasn't as crazy as the original. -- Bobby Lee, in today's Comments ...

... Trump Opposes First Amendment, Humor. Again. Alex Horton of the Washington Post: "In yet another Sunday morning tweetstorm, Trump blasted the previous night's episode of SNL -- which opened with Alec Baldwin portraying the commander in chief declaring a national emergency at the southern border -- and quickly drew fire from the ACLU and Baldwin himself. As before, Trump said without evidence or much explanation that the show is a coordinated attempt by NBC at character assassination. 'Nothing funny about tired Saturday Night Live on Fake News NBC! Question is, how do the Networks get away with these total Republican hit jobs without retribution?' Trump said on Twitter. 'Likewise for many other shows? Very unfair and should be looked into. This is the real Collusion!'... Four minutes later, he tweeted an old standby: 'THE RIGGED AND CORRUPT MEDIA IS THE ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE!'... The American Civil Liberties Union took to Trump's favorite medium Sunday to issue a five-word rebuke. 'It's called the First Amendment,' the group wrote on Twitter. Other social media users criticized Trump for challenging cornerstone constitutional protections. One political scientist noted that Trump was akin to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his intolerance for criticism.... Baldwin wrote on Twitter: 'Trump whines. The parade moves on.'" See Baldwin's performance in yesterday's Commentariat. ...

One thing that makes America great is that people can laugh at you without retribution. -- Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), in a tweet

When Obama's Justice Department tried to pressure reporters to reveal sources or obtain their records, including our colleagues at the @nytimes, we fought it vigorously. We believed those actions were outrageous and chilling to First Amendment coverage. Those were disputes over the publication of classified information. In today's case, the president is seeking 'retribution' because an actor made fun of him, not because national security was jeopardized. -- Peter Baker of the New York Times, in two tweets

Chris Wallace Whacks Stephen Miller with Facts. So Unfaaaair! Tommy Christopher of Mediaite: "Fox News host Chris Wallace relentlessly pushed Trump senior adviser Stephen Miller on Donald Trump's declaration of a national emergency on Sunday, and nailed him particularly hard by repeatedly asking for a single example of another president who has done what Trump has done. On this week's Fox News Sunday, Wallace was all over Miller, challenging him to provide some explanation for how Trump's national emergency is a national emergency, when Trump himself essentially admitted it wasn't a national emergency. And when Miller tried to fend off the questions with talking points, Wallace peppered him with followups." Includes video.

Peter Shane of Slate: "[H]overing over all the familiar legal forms and practices [declaring a 'national emergency'] is the depressing reality that Trump, as always, is endeavoring to hollow out the constitutional system of checks and balances.... As a result, we are left with the forms and practices of normal law to try to discipline an abnormal president. He has been and will continue to be enabled by lawyers wishing to push their interpretations of presidential authority to the maximum extent consistent with the dictionary, a practice the new attorney general championed for an earlier president and will no doubt champion again." --s ...

... The Vanity Nobel Peace Prize Story Keeps Getting Sillier. Simon Denyer & Akiko Kashiwagi of the Washington Post: "Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wouldn't say Monday whether he nominated President Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating with North Korea, even though local media reports suggest that he did. Trump said Friday that Abe had personally given him 'the most beautiful copy' of a five-page nomination letter recommending him for the prize for opening talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and lowering tensions.... But Japanese media reports on Sunday suggested that Trump was telling the truth.... The Asahi Shimbun cited an unnamed government source as saying the nomination came in response to an 'unofficial' U.S. request, made after last year's summit in Singapore." See also update to yesterday's post, "The Not-So-Secret Life of Donald Trump."

The Trump Scandals, Ctd.

Sheryl Stolberg of the New York Times: "Senator Lindsey Graham, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, vowed on Sunday to investigate whether the top officials at the Justice Department and the F.B.I. plotted an 'attempted bureaucratic coup' to remove President Trump from office, and said he would subpoena the former F.B.I. director and the deputy attorney general if necessary. Mr. Graham, Republican of South Carolina, was reacting to an interview in which the former F.B.I. deputy director, Andrew G. McCabe, confirmed an earlier New York Times report that the deputy attorney general, Rod J. Rosenstein, had suggested wearing a wire in meetings with Mr. Trump and that Justice Department officials had discussed recruiting cabinet members to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Mr. Trump from office.... He promised to have a hearing to find out 'who's telling the truth.'" ...

I don't care. I believe Putin. -- Donald Trump, re: North Korea's ICBM capabilities, to intelligence officials

... ** Scott Pelley's full "60 Minutes" interview of Andrew McCabe is here, with transcript. ...

... Lauren Evans of Splinter: "McCabe ... expanded on the previously reported story that [Deputy AG Rod] Rosenstein volunteered to wear a wire into the White House because, as he put it, 'I never get searched when I go into the White House. I could easily wear a recording device. They wouldn't know it was there.'... McCabe maintains Rosenstein was completely serious: 'And in fact, he brought it up in the next meeting we had. I never actually considered taking him up on the offer. I did discuss it with my general counsel and my leadership team back at the FBI after he brought it up the first time,' he told Pelley." ...

     ... Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Loony Lindsey should drop the histrionics. What McCabe reveals is no "attempted bureaucratic coup." It was a suggestion -- initiated by Rod Rosenstein, a Republican DAG who is so right-wing he began his career working for Ken Starr -- to impress upon the highest federal officials that the POTUS* facts they should assess in carrying out their Constitutional duty under the Twenty-fifth Amendment. ...

... Laura Jarrett of CNN: "McCabe said Trump had been speaking in a 'derogatory way' about the Russia investigation for weeks, which they viewed as an attempt to 'publicly undermine the investigation.' He said officials were concerned by the President's 'own words.' McCabe said officials looked at the following events: Trump asked former FBI Director James Comey to drop the investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn. Trump asked Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to 'include Russia' in a memo the President requested outlining reasons to fire Comey (which Rosenstein did not do). Trump fired Comey. Trump made public comments linking his firing of Comey to the Russia investigation on NBC. Trump met in the Oval Office with Russian officials where Trump reportedly said that firing Comey relieved 'great pressure.' When asked if Rosenstein was on aboard with opening the investigations into Trump, McCabe told Pelley, 'absolutely.' McCabe's description of concerns closely track that of former FBI general counsel James Baker, who told congressional investigators last year that FBI officials were contemplating, with regard to Russia, whether Trump was 'acting at the behest of and somehow following directions, somehow executing their will.'" ...

... Allison Quinn of the Daily Beast: "Former acting FBI director Andrew McCabe says he was fired from the bureau because he dared to go against President Trump -- whom he portrayed as delusional and almost 'gleeful' about firing former FBI director James Comey in an interview with 60 Minutes on Sunday night.... When he was called in for an interview with Trump about possibly remaining on as the permanent FBI director in the wake of Comey's ouster, McCabe said, Trump spent a lot of time talking about himself.... 'It was a bit of a bizarre experience. I went in for my interview with the president and he began by talking to me about his electoral college results in the state of North Carolina.' He also 'talked about the support that he enjoyed from within the FBI. He estimated that 80 percent of FBI employees must have voted for him, and he asked me if I thought that was true,' McCabe said. At the end of the interview, he said, he responded to a question Trump had earlier posed to him about who he'd voted for. 'I told him that I didn't vote for him, and then that was pretty much the end of the interview."

Catherine Herridge of Fox "News": "Former top FBI lawyer James Baker, in closed-door testimony to Congress, detailed alleged discussions among senior officials at the Justice Department about invoking the 25th Amendment to remove President Trump from office, claiming he was told Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein said two Trump Cabinet officials were 'ready to support' such an effort. The testimony was delivered last fall to the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees. Fox News has confirmed portions of the transcript. It provides additional insight into discussions that have returned to the spotlight in Washington as fired FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe revisits the matter during interviews promoting his forthcoming book. Baker did not identify the two Cabinet officials. But in his testimony, the lawyer said McCabe and FBI lawyer Lisa Page came to him to relay their conversations with Rosenstein, including discussions of the 25th Amendment."

Patrick Temple-West of Politico: "House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff said Sunday that there is ample evidence Donald Trump's presidential campaign colluded with Russia. In an interview on CNN, Schiff rejected Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr's statements from earlier this month, in which Burr said evidence shows no collusion by the Trump campaign and Russia. 'You can see evidence in plain sight on the issue of collusion, pretty compelling evidence,' Schiff said, adding, 'There is a difference between seeing evidence of collusion and being able to prove a criminal conspiracy beyond a reasonable doubt.' Schiff said special counsel Robert Mueller's report on potential Russian government meddling in the 2016 election might not be the final word on the matter. 'We may also need to see the evidence behind that report,' he said."

Carole Cadwalladr of the Guardian: "A director of ... Cambridge Analytica ... has been subpoenaed by the US investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government. A spokesman for Brittany Kaiser, former business development director for Cambridge Analytica -- which collapsed after the Observer revealed details of its misuse of Facebook data -- confirmed that she had been subpoenaed by special counsel Robert Mueller, and was cooperating fully with his investigation. He added that she was assisting other US congressional and legal investigations into the company's activities and had voluntarily turned over documents and data."

Scott Thistle & Kevin Miller of the Portland Press Herald: "Former Gov. Paul LePage and his staff members paid for more than 40 rooms at Washington, D.C.'s Trump International Hotel during a two-year period, spending at least $22,000 in Maine taxpayer money at a business owned by the president's family. Documents ... show that the LePage administration paid anywhere from $362 to more than $1,100 a night for rooms at the luxury hotel during trips to meet with President Trump or his inner circle, attend White House events or talk to members of Congress. Receipts ... also show the Republican governor or his administration spending hundreds of dollars on filet mignon or other expensive menu items at the restaurant in the Trump hotel.... The records ... show that taxpayers funded about $170,000 in out-of-state travel by LePage and staff members during fiscal years 2017 and 2018 and part of 2019.... In comparison, LePage's predecessor, Democratic Gov. John Baldacci, spent just over $45,000 on out-of-state travel his last two years in office, 2009 and 2010.... His total lodging tab for the two years was $9,524." --s

Jonathan Swan of Axios: "Shortly after becoming President Trump's acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney conveyed a blunt message to several Cabinet secretaries. According to a senior White House official with direct knowledge and another source briefed on the private conversations, Mulvaney told the Cabinet officials that their 'highest priority' over the next year would be deregulation.... '>We knew there was one thing we could do without legislation,' the senior official told me. When Mulvaney sits down with the president to discuss the Cabinet secretaries' performance, the official said, 'Dereg is going to be top of the list.' Trump relishes using the power of the presidency to do whatever he can without Congress."

** Timothy Gardner of Reuters [Feb. 14th]: "The Tennessee Valley Authority voted on Thursday to close two aging coal-fired power plants, including one supplied by a company led by a major supporter of President Donald Trump, who had urged the U.S.-owned utility to keep it open.... [C]losing them would save customers $320 million. The board voted 5-2 to approve the closures. The members who voted to keep them open were both appointed by Trump.... Paradise 3, which entered service in 1970, was mostly supplied with coal last year by Murray Energy, chaired by Robert Murray, a donor to Trump's presidential campaign in 2016 and a frequent attendee at events held by the administration." --s

Christal Hayes of USA Today: "Protests across the nation are planned Monday in response [to] ... Donald Trump's national emergency declaration. The protests are being planned from New York and North Dakota to California and Texas all to counter the order Trump signed Friday, which freed up billions to construct a wall along the southern U.S. border with Mexico."

Presidential Race 2020. Alexander Burns of the New York Times: President "Obama has told friends and likely presidential candidates in private that he does not see it as his role to settle the 2020 nomination, and prefers to let the primary unfold as a contest of ideas. Michelle Obama, the former first lady, also has no plans to endorse a candidate, a person familiar with her thinking said.... [President Obama] has counseled more than a dozen declared or likely candidates on what he believes it will take to beat President Trump, holding private talks with leading contenders like [Senator Kamala] Harris, [Senator Cory] Booker and Senator Elizabeth Warren; underdogs like Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind.; and prominent figures who remain undecided on the race, like Eric H. Holder, his former attorney general, and Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York."

It's somewhere to the left of Che Guevara, I guess. -- David Brooks, describing the Democratic party, on PBS's "News Hour," Friday

Thanks, PBS & NYT! -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie

Nicole Perlroth of the New York Times: "Businesses and government agencies in the United States have been targeted in aggressive attacks by Iranian and Chinese hackers who security experts believe have been energized by President Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal last year and his trade conflicts with China. Recent Iranian attacks on American banks, businesses and government agencies have been more extensive than previously reported.... The attacks, attributed to Iran by analysts at the National Security Agency and the private security firm FireEye, prompted an emergency order by the Department of Homeland Security during the government shutdown last month. The Iranian attacks coincide with a renewed Chinese offensive geared toward stealing trade and military secrets from American military contractors and technology companies, according to nine intelligence officials, private security researchers and lawyers familiar with the attacks...."

"Digital Gangsters". David Pegg of the Guardian: "Facebook deliberately broke privacy and competition law and should urgently be subject to statutory regulation, according to a devastating parliamentary report denouncing the company and its executives as 'digital gangsters'. The final report of the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport select committee's 18-month investigation into disinformation and fake news accused Facebook of purposefully obstructing its inquiry and failing to tackle attempts by Russia to manipulate elections." --s

Hadas Gold, et al., of CNN: "UK lawmakers have accused Facebook of violating data privacy and competition laws in a report on social media disinformation that also says CEO Mark Zuckerberg showed 'contempt' toward parliament by not appearing before them. The UK Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee said in a report published Monday that a trove of internal Facebook emails it reviewed demonstrated that the social media platform had 'intentionally and knowingly' violated both data privacy and competition laws.&"

CBS News: "Anthony Weiner, the disgraced former congressman who pleaded guilty to sending sexually explicit material to a teen, has been released from federal prison ahead of the end of his 21-month sentence. Federal records show Weiner ... is now being housed at a Residential Re-entry Management facility in Brooklyn, New York, ahead of his final release date of May 14. The records do not state when Weiner was transferred from the Massachusetts prison. Weiner, 54, was sentenced to jail time after he pleaded guilty in 2017 to sending obscene material to a 15-year old girl.... After the 15-year-old came forward with emails between herself and Weiner, prosecutors began an investigation into his laptop, which led to the discovery of a batch of emails from [Hillary] Clinton to [Weiner's former wife Huma] Abedin. Former FBI Director James Comey reopened the investigation in Clinton's emails in the final weeks before the 2016 election."

Way Beyond the Beltway

Ankit Panda of The Daily Beast: "On Jan. 23, Russian military officials held a press conference showing off what they said was a cruise missile at the center of a years-long arms control controversy between Washington and Moscow. Except the presentation was essentially a hoax, according to a classified briefing prepared by U.S. intelligence. Neither the missile, nor its launch vehicle, nor the accompanying schematics were what Russia claimed them to be. The alleged Russian misdirection came just days before the United States announced that it would withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty[.]" --s

Mat Youkee of the Guardian: "Panamanian real estate was a favourite investment of the boliburgues, Venezuelans who grew rich on the back of their political connections to the late president Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro. But in the wake of the Panama Papers scandal it has become increasingly hard to launder money through the country, cutting off a potential exit route for those looking to cut loose from Maduro's embattled regime.... Senior Panamanian sources told The Guardian that since early 2017 the US's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) had been working with the Lima Group of 12 Latin American countries and Canada to identify illegal offshore assets belonging to members of the Maduro regime.... As authorities in the US, Panama and Spain home in on the Chavistas' errant billions, those close to the regime are running out of time to secure their foreign assets.... 'As Venezuela enters "end-game" we are likely to see an acceleration in the rate at which ill-gotten funds are expatriated,' says [Pedro] Armada [a Panama City based investigator and forensic accountant]. 'The noose is tightening on the boliburgues.'" --s

The Not-So-Secret Life of Donald Trump

Sometimes when I read or hear a story of some horrifying event, I will imagine how I would or should or could handle it, were I at the scene. I calculate what might be the heroic thing to do, and I try to place myself as the hero. Such imaginings actually may be practical "rehearsals," in that they give one a chance to think through how to act instantaneously in rare, dangerous situations. I would guess most people imagine themselves in dangerous situations, more or less in this way. This is not to suggest we're all running around like latter-day Walter Mittys, absorbed in fantasies. Well, that is, most of us are not. Moreover, we don't confuse these momentary musings with real-life events. Well, that is, most of us do not.

But I know of someone who does; that is, someone who not only fantasizes that he is a hero, but also quickly comes to believe his fantasies are real. Unfortunately, he is the President* of the United States.

Here's a case in point. During his nutty Rose Garden speech last week, Donald Trump said,

...I believe he [President Obama] would have gone to war with North Korea. I think he was ready to go to war. In fact, he told me he was so close to starting a big war with North Korea. And where are we now?  No missiles. No rockets. No nuclear testing. We’ve learned a lot. But much more importantly than all of it — much more important — much, much more important that that is we have a great relationship.  I have a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un.  And I’ve done a job.  In fact, I think I can say this: Prime Minister Abe of Japan gave me the most beautiful copy of a letter that he sent to the people who give out a thing called the Nobel Prize.  He said, 'I have nominated you…' or 'Respectfully, on behalf of Japan, I am asking them to give you the Nobel Peace Prize.'  I said, 'Thank you.'  Many other people feel that way too.  I’ll probably never get it, but that’s okay.

Let's unpack that.

As Peter Baker reports in today's New York Times, this is not the first time Trump has made himself the hero of this particular story: "'That was going to be a war that could have been a World War III, to be honest with you,' Mr. Trump said at a cabinet meeting last month. 'Anybody else but me, you’d be in war right now,' he told reporters a few days later. 'And I can tell you, the previous administration would have been in war right now if that was extended. You would, right now, be in a nice, big, fat war in Asia with North Korea if I wasn’t elected president.'”

Trump even made the same claim in this year's State of the Union address: “If I had not been elected president of the United States, we would right now, in my opinion, be in a major war with North Korea with potentially millions of people killed.”

But the story is a fable. Baker writes, "It is impossible to prove a negative, of course, but nobody who worked for Mr. Obama has publicly endorsed this assessment, nor have any of the memoirs that have emerged from his administration disclosed any serious discussion of military action against North Korea. Several veterans of the Obama era made a point of publicly disputing Mr. Trump’s characterization on Friday."

We were not on the brink of war with North Korea in 2016. -- Ben Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser, in a tweet

President Obama was never on the verge of starting any war with North Korea, large or small. -- John Brennan, Obama's CIA director, on MSNBC

Oh, as for Trump's claim that Japan's prime minister nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize? Uh, probably not:

Roberta Rampton of Japan Today: "He said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had given him 'the most beautiful copy' of a five-page letter in which Abe nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize for opening talks and easing tensions with North Korea. 'You know why? Because he had rocket ships and he had missiles flying over Japan,' Trump said. 'Now, all of a sudden, they feel good. They feel safe. I did that,' Trump said, adding that the Obama administration 'couldn't have done it.' The White House declined further comment on Trump's claim that Abe had nominated him, and a spokesman for the Japanese embassy said he had no information about such a letter." *

Update: Makiko Yamazaki of Reuters: "Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated ... Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize last autumn after receiving a request from the U.S. government to do so, the Asahi newspaper reported on Sunday." Emphasis added, while laughing.

According to Baker, "Mr. Trump bases his argument on the single extended conversation he has ever had with Mr. Obama. In November 2016, Mr. Obama invited ... [Trump] to the White House for a 90-minute discussion of the issues awaiting him. Mr. Trump’s account of that conversation has evolved over time. At first, he said that Mr. Obama told him that North Korea would be the new administration’s toughest foreign policy challenge, which seems plausible enough. Only later did Mr. Trump add the supposed war discussion."

As Baker writes, "The only president who has vocally threatened war on North Korea in recent times is Mr. Trump. After a provocative intercontinental ballistic missile test, Mr. Trump in the summer of 2017 threatened to rain down 'fire and fury' on North Korea and a month later told the United Nations General Assembly that he would 'totally destroy North Korea' if it threatened the United States. In January 2018, after North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, talked of having a nuclear button, Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter that 'I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!'”

Trump is Walter Mitty on steroids. Mitty has his heroic fantasies, but he keeps returning, if reluctantly, to the real world where his wife badgers him & others push him around. Trump has his fantasies, but he never returns to the real world. The fantasies become real. He is the hero of these fantasties. There are bad guys -- like President Obama -- and there are Trump fans, like Prime Minister Abe.

In this particular fantasy, Trump has used his negotiating skills & charm to single-handedly prevent World War III. He has saved "millions of" lives. This is not true, but Trump has imagined it, and so it has "become." The reason Trump doesn't trust his intelligence agencies is that they tell him things that run contrary to this imagined world. Andrew McCabe writes in his new book of a July 2017 briefing in which intelligence officials told Trump that North Korea had, for the first time, test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile. "... Trump called the launch ... a 'hoax,' telling officials he knew North Korea did not have the ability to launch that type of missile 'because Vladimir Putin had told him so.'" Of course, there's no way to know what Putin may have told Trump because Trump eats any notes of his conversations with Putin. It is hard to know what is more alarming: that Trump believes an adversary over his own intelligence team or that Trump just made up the entire story. Either way, Trump is so obviously unfit for office.

Since Trump's fantasy world requires bad guys to defeat, he invents villains. He claims the bad guy -- President Obama -- was planning to start a devastating war with North Korea "with potentially millions of people killed." Here, it is also possible that Trump imagines Hillary Clinton is the phantom villain, because he says this horrible war would have occurred had he not been elected. That is, it's possible that she would have started the war that Obama somehow restrained himself from starting. There is no evidence Clinton would have started a war with North Korea and there is ample evidence that Obama never planned to do so. But Trump has imagined it, so it has "become." This fantasy is so real to Trump that he shares it with the American people.

Trump's fantasies also require international acclaim. He imagines Shinzo Abe is so grateful to Trump for ending the rain of North Korean "rocket ships and missiles" over Japan that Abe has nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. There is no evidence for this, but Trump needs veneration, so he imagines it. To Trump this probably imaginary nomination has "become," so he shares it.

Donald Trump's fantasies -- his lies -- are not without meaning or consequence. We are all paying for them. Whether it's his climate change denial or his rich people's tax cut law or his wall, or whatever, in more ways than one, we are all victims of Donald Trump's not-so-secret life.

The Commentariat -- February 17, 2019

Ivanka Trump, the president's daughter and a top adviser, looked on from the crowd, stone-faced. -- Washington Post ...

... Griff Witte & Michael Birnbaum of the Washington Post: "An annual security conference where Western allies have long forged united fronts erupted Saturday into a full-scale assault on the Trump administration's foreign policy. European leaders, would-be Democratic challengers and even the president's Republican backers took the floor to rebuke the president's go-it-alone approach. German Chancellor Angela Merkel -- habitually cautious about provoking Trump -- led the charge, unleashing a stinging, point-by-point takedown of the administration's tendency to treat its allies as adversaries.... Merkel accused the United States of strengthening Iran and Russia with its plans for a speedy military pullout from Syria. She expressed shock that the Trump administration would deem BMWs made in South Carolina a threat to national security.... The crowd gave the German chancellor an extended standing ovation -- a rare display at the normally button-down Munich Security Conference. The customarily reserved Merkel beamed as she took her seat.... Merkel was followed to the podium Saturday by Vice President Pence, who was met with only tepid applause -- and some incredulous looks -- when he proclaimed Trump 'the leader of the free world.'" ...

... Katrin Bennhold & Steven Erlanger of the New York Times: "Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany delivered a strong rejoinder on Saturday to American demands that European allies pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and gave a spirited defense of multilateral institutions in a world increasingly marked by great-power rivalry. In an uncharacteristically passionate speech, Ms. Merkel said the nuclear deal was the best way of influencing Iranian behavior on a range of non-nuclear issues, from missile development to terrorism. Without mentioning President Trump or the United States by name in what may be her last speech to this major security conference, Ms. Merkel criticized other unilateral moves, such as Mr. Trump's decision to pull American troops out of Syria, a suggestion that he would withdraw quickly from Afghanistan and his decision to suspend the Intermediate Range Missile Treaty with Russia, which directly affects European security.... Ms. Merkel spoke immediately before the United States vice president, Mike Pence, and addressed a packed auditorium with an audience that included Mr. Trump's daughter Ivanka, as well as the Russian foreign minister and a high-ranking Chinese official, who all pointedly remained seated when the chancellor received a standing ovation. Her reception was in sharp contrast to the polite near-silence that greeted Mr. Pence's address.... Mr. Pence focused less on working together and more on a list of demands for American allies based on American interests, with a heavy emphasis on a combative approach to Iran."

... Idiots Abroad. Washington Post Editors: "Many Europeans suspect that the Trump administration has little regard for the close alliances with Britain, France and Germany that have shaped U.S. foreign policy since World War II, preferring the autocratic ethnonationalism that has emerged in the nations of Central Europe. A bumbling series of appearances across the continent last week by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Pence will surely reinforce those conclusions. Mr. Pompeo began the week by paying court to the Hungarian regime of Viktor Orban, who has become a virtual pariah in European capitals because of his embrace of 'illiberal democracy.'... The secretary of state extended his goodwill tour to Slovakia -- where a leading journalist who exposed government corruption was murdered last year -- before meeting up in Poland with Mr. Pence for a ... poorly-conceived ... U.S.-organized conference on the Middle East.... the broad message of the week is that the Trump administration is aligning itself with those European forces that flout liberal values while denigrating allies that for 75 years have supported U.S. global leadership."

Linda Qiu of the New York Times: "To justify redirecting federal funds to a wall, the president made a litany of assertions about crime, drugs and other issues on the southern border. Nearly all were misleading, exaggerated or false." (Also linked yesterday afternoon) ...

... Glenn Kessler & Meg Kelly of the Washington Post: "Where to begin with President Trump's rambling news conference to announce he was invoking a national emergency to build a border wall? It was chock-full of false and misleading claims, many of which we've previously highlighted.... Here's a summary of 14 of the most noteworthy claims...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon) ...

Eric Levitz of New York: "On Friday morning, the president of the United States announced that America was suffering from a national emergency, that invaders were pouring across its southern border -- and that Rush Limbaugh is a 'great guy' who can 'speak for three hours without taking a phone call; try doing that some time!' That last declaration wasn't nearly as much of a non sequitur as one would hope. Donald Trump's decision to override the will of Congress -- and unilaterally fund his border wall through a fictitious emergency -- was the direct product of his affection for conservative media personalities. On Tuesday night, Sean Hannity told his viewers that he could tolerate Trump signing a bipartisan spending bill that lacked funding for 'the wall,' so long as the president simultaneously used an emergency order to unilaterally finance his signature policy. Three days later, Trump did exactly that." Levitz points out that Trump's base is so solid, he could have promoted -- and forced upon the GOP Congress -- actual populist & progressive legislation and not lost any of his base. He's a dick because he wants to be a dick, not because he has to be.

Andrew Desiderio of Politico: "House Democrats are taking their first real steps to force ... Donald Trump to divulge information about his private conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, setting up an extraordinary clash with the White House over Congress' oversight authority. Rep. Adam Schiff, the Intelligence Committee chairman, and Rep. Eliot Engel, the Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, told Politico they are actively consulting with House General Counsel Douglas Letter about the best way to legally compel the Trump administration to turn over documents or other information related to the president's one-on-one discussions with the Russian leader.... In particular, Democrats say they want to find out what Trump and Putin discussed during their private meeting in Helsinki last July, where Trump put himself at odds with the U.S. intelligence community and declared -- while standing next to the Russian president -- that the Kremlin did not interfere in the 2016 elections." (Also linked yesterday)

Dwight Garner in the New York Times: Former FBI acting director Andrew McCabe's "'The Threat' is a concise yet substantive account of how the F.B.I. works, at a moment when its procedures and impartiality are under attack. It's an unambiguous indictment of Trump's moral behavior.... McCabe writes. 'The work of the F.B.I. is being undermined by the current president.'... McCabe's accounts of his baffled interactions with Jeff Sessions, the former attorney general, would be high comedy if they were not so dire.... We see a Sessions who is openly racist.... He spends a good deal of time talking about Hillary Clinton and her email server. He argues that [James] Comey, whom he admires, made crucial mistakes in how he handled the matter. 'As a matter of policy, the F.B.I. does everything possible not to influence elections. In 2016, it seems we did.'"

Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "President Trump&'s pick to be the next United Nations ambassador withdrew from consideration Saturday, the State Department said. The department's spokeswoman, Heather Nauert, had been tapped to succeed Nikki Haley at the United Nations, but her name was never formally sent to the Senate for confirmation. The withdrawal is related to the employment of a nanny who was in the country illegally, said three people.... But according to a person familiar with Nauert's situation, the nanny was in the country legally.... It is unclear if she will return as spokeswoman." ...

... Matthew Lee of the AP: "Heather Nauert, picked by ... Donald Trump to be the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations but never officially nominated, has withdrawn from consideration, the State Department said.... Nauert's impending nomination had been considered a tough sell in the Senate, where she would have faced tough questions about her relative lack of foreign policy experience, according to congressional aides. A potential issue involving a nanny that she and her husband had employed may also have been a factor in her decision to withdraw, according to one aide. That issue, which was first reported by Bloomberg on Saturday, centered on a foreign nanny who was legally in the U.S. but did not have legal status to work, according to the aide.... The aide said some involved in the vetting process saw Nauert&'s inexperience and questions about her ability to represent the U.S. at the U.N. as a larger issue."

Presidential Race 2020. Holly Otterbein of Politico: "Bernie Sanders, inching closer to a second bid for the White House, has recorded a campaign video in which he says he is running for president in 2020, according to two people familiar with the spot.... Another hint that Sanders is getting closer to a launch: As Politico reported this week, the Sanders team has been interviewing people for top staff positions."

Elizabeth Dias & Jason Horowitz of the New York Times: "Pope Francis has expelled Theodore E. McCarrick, a former cardinal and archbishop of Washington, from the priesthood, after the church found him guilty of sexually abusing minors and adult seminarians over decades, the Vatican said on Saturday. The move appears to be the first time any cardinal has been defrocked for sexual abuse -- marking a critical moment in the Vatican's handling of a scandal that has gripped the church for nearly two decades. It is also the first time an American cardinal has been removed from the priesthood." (Also linked yesterday)

Beyond the Beltway

Illinois. Don Babwin & Caryn Rousseau of the AP: "The man who opened fire and killed five co-workers including the plant manager, human resources manager and an intern working his first day at a suburban Chicago manufacturing warehouse, took a gun he wasn't supposed to have to a job he was about to lose. Right after learning Friday that he was being fired from his job of 15 years at the Henry Pratt Co. in Aurora, Gary Martin pulled out a gun and began shooting, killing the three people in the room with him and two others just outside and wounding a sixth employee, police said Saturday.... Martin, 45, had six arrests over the years in Aurora, for what police Chief Kristen Ziman described as 'traffic and domestic battery-related issues' and for violating an order of protection. He also had a 1995 felony conviction for aggravated assault in Mississippi that should have prevented him from buying his gun, Ziman said."

Illinois. Ryan Young, et al., of CNN: "Two law enforcement sources with knowledge of the investigation tell CNN that Chicago Police believe actor Jussie Smollett paid two men to orchestrate an assault on him that he reported late last month. Smollett denies playing a role in his attack, according to a statement from his attorneys. The men, who are brothers, were arrested Wednesday but released without charges Friday after Chicago police cited the discovery of 'new evidence.' The sources told CNN the two men are now cooperating fully with law enforcement.... One of the men has appeared on 'Empire,' [a Chicago Police spokesman] said. A police source also told CNN on Friday night that the men had a previous affiliation with Smollett, but did not provide additional details." ...

... Charlie De Mar of CBS News Chicago: "Jussie Smollett paid two brothers to stage an attack against him, directed them to buy items used in the alleged assault and actually rehearsed it with them, sources say.... The brothers, who were questioned by police this week before being released, were paid $3,500 before leaving for Nigeria and were promised an additional $500 upon their return.... Police raided ... the brothers' home on Wednesday, the same day police met them at O'Hare International Airport, as they were returning from Nigeria."