The Commentariat -- January 2, 2016

Patricia Cohen of the New York Times: "A new study on long-term unemployment from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found that the prospects for women over 50 darkened after the Great Recession. In 2006-7, before the downturn hit, less than a quarter of the unemployed in this group had been out of work for more than six months. By 2012-13, older jobless women accounted for half of the long-term unemployed."

** Robin Lindley of the History News Network interviews historian Christian Appy on how American exceptionalism drives foreign policy, and not in a good way. republished in Salon.

Michael Massing, in the New York Review of Books, on how the press should cover so-called philanthropy. "The tax write-offs for such contributions, however, mean that this giving is subsidized by US taxpayers. Every year, an estimated $40 billion is diverted from the public treasury through charitable donations. That makes accountability for them all the more pressing. So does the fact that many of today’s philanthropists are more activist than those in the past.... Rather than simply write checks for existing institutions, these “philanthrocapitalists,” as they are often called, aggressively seek to shape their operations." ...

... AND Bill Gates has a book blog. "As publishers have become more aware of Mr. Gates’s reviews ... they have tried to figure out how to get their new books in front of him." CW: So while Bill is spending your money messing with education or whatever, you might want to read a few of the books he recommeds.

Presidential Race

Gail Collins' New Year's quiz focusses on the presidential race.

Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "Hillary Clinton's campaign announced Friday that it raised $55 million in the final fund-raising period of 2015, and $112 million for the year. Clinton brought in $37 million in money specifically for use in the primary, the most for any non-incumbent in a non-election year, the campaign said, and $18 million for the general election." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Making Al Qaeda Great Again. Tom Liddy of ABC News: "The militant group Al-Shabaab -- Al Qaeda's affiliate in Somalia -- has released a recruitment video featuring ... Donald Trump. The more-than 51-minute propaganda video comes on the heels of a war of words between Trump and Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton over her suggestion that the real estate mogul's controversial remarks about Muslims would be used to recruit jihadis. The video includes a clip of Trump calling for a 'shutdown' of Muslims entering the United States." ...

... Jessica Glenza of the Guardian: "... towards the end of the Rose Parade [in Pasadena, California,] ... skywriters captured public attention with messages reading 'America is great. Trump is disgusting' and 'Iowans dump Trump', dotted through a cloudless sky.”

If we awaken and energize the body of Christ -- if Christians and people of faith come out and vote our values -- we will win and we will turn the country around. -- Ted Cruz, to volunteers on a conference call Tuesday

... Steve M.: "... back in the fall, [Ben] Carson seemed to be the evangelical favorite.... But Ted Cruz and his preacher father, Rafael, out-Carsoned Carson.... Carson is fading now because he's no match for Cruz. Cruz, with his father's help, has done the best job this year of weaponizing Christianity." ...

... CW: This "body of Christ" stuff is just creepy & totally inappropriate for a political candidate to utter. A public official is supposed to serve all of the people, & that is not possible for a candidate who invokes Christianist messages as part of his campaign. When Ted uses Jesus an an instrument to "turn this country around," he means to turn it around to a Christianist nation. It's sickening. 

Ashley Parker of the New York Times: "... aides to [Jeb] Bush and important allies described a long-shot plan to pull off what seems all but impossible: winning the Republican nomination for president. The plan has six elements."

Beyond the Beltway

Thomas Curwen of the Los Angeles Times: "Porter Ranch[, Calofornia,] lies closer to the gas field with the nearest homes about a mile from a well that began leaking Oct. 23. Fumes are pouring into the community, and thousands of residents have been relocated to temporary housing. Emergency crews have returned, but the work is slow. Southern California Gas Co. estimates that crews won't plug the leak at the Aliso Canyon Underground Storage Facility until at least late February, possibly until late March.... Neither the cause nor the exact location of the leak has been identified.... "

David Montgomery of the New York Times: "On a chilly, overcast day, more than 100 Texans gathered [on the south steps of the Texas state capitol building] carrying an array of holstered weaponry — Glocks, Smith & Wessons and more — to mark a change in the law that lets them openly display the fact that they are armed. The practice had been banned in Texas since 1871. Similar demonstrations were held in several other Texas cities."

Responsible Gun Ownership, Ctd. AP: "A man shot and killed his wife and two others in his home in Los Angeles on New Year’s Eve before his son wrestled the gun away and fatally shot him in a chain of events apparently set off by a dispute over a washing machine." ...

Responsible Gun Ownership, Ctd. Eric Dolan of the Raw Story: "A 20-year-old University of North Texas student crashed into an electrical pole in Denton early Friday morning after being shot in the head in an apparent road rage incident."

AP: "The death of a man whose plane clipped one building before smashing into another in the heart of downtown Anchorage was a suicide, a spokeswoman for his family said on Friday." The pilot, who was a member of the Civil Air Patrol, flew a CAP plane in the unauthorized flight.

Way Beyond

Carlotta Gall of the New York Times: "Many of the extremist groups [in North Africa] are affiliates of Al Qaeda, which has had roots in North Africa since the 1990s. With the recent introduction of Islamic State franchises, the jihadist push has been marked by increasing, sometimes heated, competition. But, analysts and military officials say, there is also deepening collaboration among groups using modern communications and a sophisticated system of roving trainers to share military tactics, media strategies and ways of transferring money." CW: And now we know these horrible people have a new recruiter -- Donald Trump.

Ben Hubbard of the New York Times: "Saudi Arabia executed 47 people convicted of terrorism-related offenses on Saturday, including suspected members of Al Qaeda and a prominent cleric and government critic from the country’s Shiite minority. The executions ... followed a year in which at least 157 people were put to death, the most in two decades in the conservative Muslim kingdom."

Simon Denyer of the Washington Post: "Chinese President Xi Jinping has carried out the most far-reaching anti-corruption campaign in Communist Party history — and, at the same time, the harshest crackdown on free speech in decades. Now he is tightening the screws further, outlawing internal dissent within the party through new disciplinary rules that have led to the firings of an academic, a newspaper editor and a senior police officer for 'improper discussion' of government policy.... To his critics, the move carries disturbing echoes of the dark days of Mao Zedong. Xi, they say, has surrounded himself with sycophants who can deliver only good news. He is undermining the ideas of collective leadership and 'intraparty democracy' that the Communist Party had adopted — and trumpeted — after Mao’s death, and replacing them with a return to one-man rule."

Happy New Year

Following is a comment contributor MAG wrote in Thursday's thread. I heartily agree with MAG's sentiments, although I've omitted her Plaudit No. 1 because my mother told me it was bad form to toot my own horn. That doesn't mean I'm not ever-so-pleased when someone else does the tooting. I would add that I always look forward to reading MAG's comments: thoughtful, smart & succinct -- and often expressing a point-of-view I overlooked but am happy to adopt once MAG raises the point. -- Constant Weader

Whew! It’s almost over and I can stop seeing those detestable top 10 end-of-the-year lists. 2015’s 10 Best Law & Order ReRuns, 10 Best Restaurants off the Beaten Path, 10 Best Bratwurst Joints, et al. But, if you can’t fight’em, join’em…OK, I caved.

Here’s my 2015’s Top 10 Reality Chex-ers —in no particular sorta order:

2. @ Akheilleus, whose brilliant interpretations and witty insights continually astound and provoke—often sending me off on a Google-search for the definition of some obscure word that (of course) he uses correctly! A Greek & Latin scholar who knows rock bands from eons ago! Wow!…yet, what blew me away most recently…is the awareness of his fashionista side and how wonderfully he wordsmithed “pret-a-porter” into one of his best lines of the year: On December 21: “…with Trumpy's blowhardiness. He is a prêt–à–porter propaganda warehouse.”

3. @ Marwin  S & Ken W…well-thought out analysis, obviously well read readers, checkers & researchers of the first rank.

4. @ PD Pepe feisty and given to wry phrasings. Think of her as the Madame DeFarge of RC. Surely, knitting is among her many skills, as well!

5. @ Diane… sharp input, to the point & never ever brooking nonsense!

6. @ Ophelia M. among RC’s newest…(imagine you in floating in an ethereal mist over Manhattan with iPad close at hand for ever sage observations!)

7. @ D.C. Clark always knowledgeable, besides he’s the one who has the biggest one anywhere. For Star-gazing, that is!

8. @ Kate Madison RC’s ‘in-house’ psychoanalyst who cuts through the bull—and never lets us forget the importance of the Supremes (not talking Diana, Flo & Mary)!

9. @ Barbarossa, Unwashed, Citizen625, Owen Whyte, Nisky Guy, and the Victorias (with & without the D) add their smart POVs and great links to follow! Thanks!

10. @ and to one & all who have been UNINTENTIONALLY left unmentioned, you’re still the greatest, best-est, too! (Disclaimer: this list is still incomplete) And to everyone thanks for the terrific daily reads!

HAPPY NEW YEAR one and all … said the Tiny Mag!

The Commentariat -- January 1, 2016

Afternoon Update:

Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "Hillary Clinton's campaign announced Friday that it raised $55 million in the final fund-raising period of 2015, and $112 million for the year. Clinton brought in $37 million in money specifically for use in the primary, the most for any non-incumbent in a non-election year, the campaign said, and $18 million for the general election."

*****

... AND may the new year bring an extraordinary moment like this for each & every one of us. They laughed when I sat down at the piano....

... Elahe Izadi of the Washington Post: How a day in the dead of winter (in the Northern hemisphere) came to mark the beginning of each new year.

White House: "In this week's address, the President reflected on the progress of the past year, and looked forward to working on unfinished business in the coming year, particularly when it comes to the epidemic of gun violence":

Juliet Eilperin of the Washington Post: "President Obama will meet with Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch on Monday to finalize a set of executive actions on guns that he will unveil next week.... According to those familiar with the proposal..., the president will expand new background-check requirements for buyers who purchase weapons from high-volume gun dealers. The president will also use his executive authority in several other areas, these individuals said, but the overall package has not yet been finalized."

** Paul Krugman: "... the biggest reason to oppose the power of money in politics is the way it lets the wealthy rig the system and distort policy priorities. And the biggest reason billionaires hate Mr. Obama is what he did to their taxes, not their feelings. The fact that some of those buying influence are also horrible people is secondary. But it's not trivial. Oligarchy, rule by the few, also tends to become rule by the monstrously self-centered. Narcisstocracy? Jerkigarchy? Anyway, it's an ugly spectacle, and it's probably going to get even uglier over the course of the year ahead."

David Roberts of Vox: Economic insecurity & racism, of the kind Donald Trump illuminates, are intertwined. ...

... CW: One aspect of this dynamic that Roberts barely touches -- and there's no reason he should -- is the ways legislators have worked to keep this genie in the bottle: by passing open-carry laws so white guys have instruments (and symbols) to assert their power (and by generally promoting Second Amendment rights which promise white men they can rise up together against the Man); by pressing anti-abortion (and even anti-contraception) laws to diminish the power of women, particularly poor women; by slashing the social safety-net, which (as Roberts does point out) white men perceive a a transference of their "wealth" to minorities, especially female minorities; by privileging fundamentalist Christianity over other faiths & nontheism; by giving the police -- who are overwhelmingly white men with working-class backgrounds -- the power to abuse & even murder minorities; by asserting American power abroad, especially against non-Western countries. And so forth. You look at any confederate policy agenda, & every item on it that is not specifically designed to abet the super-rich, is writ to appease & distract the angry white man. Moreover, those agenda items aimed at the super-rich are framed in terms of giving the angry white guy more power: watch Li'l Randy, for instance, claim environmental laws are a government plot to force Americans to use lo-flush toilets & lo-energy lightbulbs or any Republican pretend that every regulation on business is a jobs-killer.

Jon Swaine, et al., of the Guardian: "Young black men were nine times more likely than other Americans to be killed by police officers in 2015, according to the findings of a Guardian study that recorded a final tally of 1,134 deaths at the hands of law enforcement officers this year."

Karen DeYoung of the Washington Post: "... while many outside the administration found the strategy [against ISIS] itself lacking, [President] Obama felt [in November] what they really needed was to do a better job of explaining it. He ordered what the official called an 'uptick in our communications tempo.'... The [administration's] new communications campaign has gone into overdrive.... So far, there is little evidence the messaging campaign is succeeding in changing opinions of the overall strategy." ...

... Paul Waldman: "Except for the occasional moment -- Obama's election, the killing of Osama bin Laden -- Republicans are almost always viewed by the public as better able to protect the country from terrorism, seemingly regardless of what's actually happening in the world or what they propose to do.... Putting aside the colorful rhetoric, the Republican presidential candidates who have tried to offer plans all propose to do almost exactly what President Obama is doing.... Barack Obama's record on keeping Americans safe from terrorism isn't just good, it's downright spectacular."

Ellen Goodman in Politico Magazine: "Death Panels: An Obituary. On January 1, Obamacare starts paying for end-of-life conversations, and a scare story finally dies.... The new Medicare rules will help encourage and normalize end-of-life conversations. Beginning Friday, doctors and other clinicians will be reimbursed for talking with all their patients -- not just sick patients -- about end-of-life care."

James Risen of the New York Times: "The United States military has sharply curtailed the use of psychologists at the prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, in response to strict new professional ethics rules of the American Psychological Association, Pentagon officials said.... General [John] Kelly's order is the latest fallout after years of recriminations in the profession for the crucial role that psychologists played in the post-9/11 programs of harsh interrogation created by the C.I.A. and the Pentagon. The psychologists' involvement in the interrogations enabled the Justice Department in the George W. Bush administration to issue secret legal opinions that declared that the C.I.A.'s so-called enhanced interrogation program was legal, in part because health professionals were monitoring it to make sure that it was safe and that it did not constitute torture."

Josh Gerstein of Politico: "The vow of a novice Chicago senator to freeze out lobbyists and nail shut the revolving door ... was central to the narrative animating his 2008 campaign: a promise of wholesale change to business as usual in Washington.... But seven years into Obama's presidency, the revolving door shuttling officials out of his administration is spinning at a rapid clip, and Obama has seen his campaign promise founder against the deeply ingrained culture of selling government expertise in Washington.... The Obama administration has hired more than 70 previously registered lobbyists..., and watched many officials circle through that revolving door, as Obama's lobbying policy was weakened by major loopholes and a loss of focus over time."

Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "Calling for 'a change in our legal culture,' Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. devoted his year-end report on the state of the federal judiciary to a plea that lawyers 'avoid antagonistic tactics, wasteful procedural maneuvers and teetering brinkmanship.' But critics said the report praised a development that will limit the amount of information individuals can obtain from companies and the government, frustrating their ability to prove their cases. The chief justice's report welcomed December's adoption of major changes to the rules governing civil litigation in the federal courts, notably limits on the pretrial exchange of information that lawyers call discovery." ...

... You can read Roberts' report, which just became available (at 6 pm ET, Dec. 31), here.

Hadas Gold of Politico: "Journalists, liberals and many in the political and labor worlds -- including presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders -- expressed regret on Thursday over the ending of Harold Meyerson's weekly column in the Washington Post." ...

... Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Driftglass: "... the Koch brothers Illinois Conservative propaganda outlet will finally own it's [radio] distribution network."

Rick Gladstone of the New York Times: "Iran's president denounced the United States on Thursday for suggesting the possibility of new sanctions over Iranian missiles, and he ordered his Defense Ministry to respond by swiftly building more of them. Hours after circulating a draft of proposed sanctions on Wednesday, however, the White House did not provide a timetable or even say that they would be put into effect."

Presidential Race

Rosalind Helderman of the Washington Post: "The State Department on New Year's Eve released thousands of pages of emails sent and received by Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of state, but still fell short of the number that a federal judge ordered should be made public by the end of the year." ...

... OR, as Jeet Heer of the New Republic puts it, "The State Department wants to wish the press a Happy New Year." ...

... David Smith of the Guardian: "Hillary Clinton was informed [by friend Sidney Blumenthal, according to John Kornblum, a former American ambassador to Germany] that German chancellor Angela Merkel is hostile to the 'Obama phenomenon' and finds it 'contrary to her whole idea of politics', according to a newly released batch of emails from her time as secretary of state.... Meanwhile another email from former policy adviser Neera Tanden, president of the left-leaning think tank Center for American Progress, in May 2012 claimed that billionaire Democratic donor George Soros admitted that he regretted voting for Obama over Clinton in the 2008 party primary."

Jesse Byrnes of the Hill: "Democratic presidential candidate Martin O'Malley failed to qualify for the ballot in Ohio. A spokesman for the Ohio secretary of state confirmed to The Hill on Thursday that O'Malley did not get the necessary 1,000 signatures to appear on the March 15 ballot."

Ryan Lizza of the New Yorker: "It's hard to see now, but the large field of Republican candidates will almost certainly be winnowed down to three or four contenders after the voting happens in the first three states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The G.O.P. field has already been gradually compressing, as candidates who have found little support in the polls, or from donors and party insiders, have dropped out of the race. Five candidates -- Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki -- have already dropped out. A few more might call it quits before the Iowa caucuses, on February 1st."

When Ya Got Nothing. In a made-for-teevee ad, Donald Trump criticizes President Obama for watching the latest "Star Wars" flick with children whose family members were killed in Iraq. Of course no mention of the kids in Trump's ad. ...

... "Hairspray." Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: "Mr. Trump has offered little in the way of an environmental policy during his presidential campaign, but on Wednesday he said that President Obama's concerns about the environment were infringing on his rights as a consumer.... '" You can't use hairspray because hairspray is going to affect the ozone,' Mr. Trump said during a rally in South Carolina. 'They don't want me to use hairspray, they want me to use the pump.'... Aerosol sprays were actually phased out in the United States in the 1990s, years before Mr. Obama was president, and the ban resulted from the Montreal Protocol in 1987, signed by President George H. W. Bush, which sought to curtail the damage aerosol products did to the disappearing ozone layer." ...

... CW: I'm beginning to think Donald Trump is a Larry David creation. President Obama might agree. ...

... "A Big Coincidence." Kevin Drum highlights a feature of Donald Trump's support: the geographic distribution tracks with "a map that shows where racially-charged internet searches are most common.... But remember: no fair confusing correlation and causation! This might just be a big coincidence." ...

... Steve M. makes a compelling argument that Jim Webb should have run as a Republican "as a result of support from Scots-Irish Americans who wave the Confederate flag and take pride in their own whiteness, a group he's long championed. They might see him as an ethnic champion in the Trump mold and as the tough guy Trump and Ted Cruz pretend to be. The voters he'd be attracting might be the very people Trump is appealing to."

According to the producer, "Made with 100% all natural Trump sound bites":

Can't Run Modest Campaign; Wants to Run U.S. Kyle Cheney of Politico: Ben Carson's "campaign manager Barry Bennett and communications director Doug Watts both resigned, effective immediately, after weeks of speculation about a shake-up.... Bennett told Politico that a slew of other senior operatives had stepped down, too, from the campaign's general counsel to its controller. Armstrong Williams, a close Carson confidant, told Politico that Robert Dees, a Carson advisor and retired Army general, will now chair the campaign, filling a leadership role that's been vacant for months.... It's unclear who will fill Bennett's post as campaign manager, handling the daily staff operation...." ...

... Robert Costa & Dave Weigel of the Washington Post have more on the campaign staff's internal disagreements & Carson's own weird mismanagement. Their story is based, in large part, on an interview of Bennett. ...

... David Graham of the Atlantic: "The loss of Bennett and Watts doesn't just come at a terrible time for the Carson campaign -- the candidate's numbers are dropping, and the Iowa caucuses are just 32 days away. It also strips Carson of some of the few advisers he has with real, deep political experience." ...

... Dave Weigel profiles Major Gen. Robert Dees (ret.), an evangelical Christian who will chair the remains of Carson's campaign. ...

... Onward, Christian Soldiers. For more on Dees, Weigel turns to James Bamford, who wrote about Dees in Foreign Policy: "Robert Dees [is] a retired general who believes Muslims pose a threat to the U.S., the military should spread Christianity, and Carson should be president." (CW: I may have linked to Bamford's piece in November.)

One of the things I'm going to do on my first day is office is I will put the prestige and power of the presidency behind a constitutional convention of the states. You know why? Because that is the only way that we are ever going to get term limits on members of Congress or the judiciary and that is the only way we are ever going to get a balanced-budget amendment. -- Marco Rubio ...

... ** Paul Waldman: "With this, Rubio manages to combine a promise for something that will never happen with a spectacularly terrible idea.... Advocating for constitutional amendments is what you do when you don't have the stomach for actual governing." Waldman proves three times over that Marco is an idiot. ...

... ** Charles Pierce: "Dragooning the entire system of government into the pursuit of two of your hobby-horse causes — both of which, by the way, are idiotic -- would be an offense against the notion that the Constitution is the work of the entire people, and not of a collection of states. This is a states' rights move, no matter what Tom Coburn and Mark Levin say about it, an attempt to control the new demographics with the old privileges. And look at your state legislatures. That's whence your delegates to this convention will come. You see a lot of Madisons, Roger Shermans, or George Masons there? Me neither." Read Pierce's & Waldman's full comments.

Beyond the Beltway

Manny Fernandez & David Montgomery of the New York Times: "... on Friday, gun rights throughout [Texas] expanded still more, as a new law took effect that allows certain Texans to wear their handguns in holsters on their hips -- or in shoulder holsters, Dirty Harry-style -- openly displaying the fact that they are armed as they work, shop, dine and go about their day.... Gun rights will advance again in August, when students and faculty members at Texas universities will be allowed to carry concealed handguns on campus, although openly carrying them is prohibited."

digby on the arrest of a mentally-disabled Rochester man who planned a machete attck on restaurant-goers (see yesterday's News Ledes): "I do still have a few concerns about the millions of other mentally ill people and right wing yahoos who are armed to the teeth and might decide to take out a crowd of people for reasons entirely unrelated to some Muslim terrorist delusion, but there's clearly nothing we can do about that because freedom, so never mind."

Way Beyond

Adam Nossiter of the New York Times: "... accounts from survivors and police officials, as well as the analysis of outside experts, make clear that there were substantial periods when the [Paris] terrorists operated with little or no hindrance from the authorities, and that France's top-heavy chain of command, which has diminished neighborhood patrols in favor of specialized units, contributed to delays."

News Ledes

Los Angeles Times: "German authorities Friday launched a manhunt for several suspects who officials believe planned suicide bombings at rail stations, as full rail transportation service in Munich resumed after being temporarily shut down as a safety precaution on New Year's Eve."

AP: "Former U.S. Rep. Mike Oxley [R-Ohio], who helped write landmark anti-fraud legislation following a wave of corporate scandals that brought down Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc., died Friday at age 71."

New York Times: "A gunman whom relatives identified as an Arab citizen of Israel opened fire in the center of Tel Aviv on Friday, killing two Israeli Jews at a crowded bar and wounding at least five others. The assault created mayhem along a busy street and led to an intense manhunt by the authorities. The suspect was still at large late Friday."

New York Times: "Natalie Cole, the Grammy Award-winning singer whose hits included 'Inseparable,' 'Pink Cadillac' and 'Unforgettable,' a virtual duet with her father, Nat King Cole, that topped the Billboard charts in 1991, died in Los Angeles on Thursday. She was 65."

Entertainment Tonight: "Actor Wayne Rogers died on Thursday surrounded by family after suffering complications from pneumonia, his rep exclusively tells ET. He was 82 years old."