The Commentariat -- Dec. 14, 2015

Internal links & defunct video removed.

CW: I"m on the road again, so updates will be sparse. I'll try to get at least a skeletal Commentariat up each day, but I'm not sure I'll be successful.

Afternoon Update:

Tom Vanden Brook & Gregory Korte of USA Today: "President Obama said he's dispatching Secretary of Defense Ash Carter to the Middle East to help secure more help to fight the Islamic State, promising that his administration is 'moving forward with a great sense of urgency' against the terrorist group."

*****

Jim Fallows of the Atlantic: "... after the climate agreement in Paris, it would be wrong not to note three big things that have happened during [Barack Obama's] presidency that in all probability would not have happened without him:

• The climate deal itself, as explained in a NYT piece just now, and in unbelievable contrast to the utter collapse of the Copenhagen negotiations early in Obama's term;
• The rapprochement with Cuba, marking the beginning of the end of the single stupidest (but hardest to change) aberration in modern U.S. foreign policy; and
• The international agreement with Iran, which in the short term offers (as I have argued at length) the best prospects for keeping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, and in the long run has the potential of beginning to end Iran's destructive estrangement from the international order."

Sewell Chan & Melissa Eddy of the New York Times: "With nearly every nation on earth having now pledged to gradually reduce emissions of the heat-trapping gases that are warming the planet -- a universal commitment that had eluded negotiators and activists since the first Earth Day summit meeting, in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 — much of the burden for maintaining the momentum now shifts back to the countries to figure out, and put in place, the concrete steps needed to deliver on their pledges. The task may prove most challenging for India, which is struggling to lift more than half of its population of 1.25 billion out of poverty and to provide basic electricity to 300 million of them. Rich countries are intent that India not get stuck on a coal-dependent development path." ...

... Clifford Krauss & Keith Bradsher of the New York Times: "If nothing else, analysts and experts say, the accord is a signal to businesses and investors that the era of carbon reduction has arrived. It will spur banks and investment funds to shift their loan and stock portfolios from coal and oil to the growing industries of renewable energy like wind and solar. Utilities themselves will have to reduce their reliance on coal and more aggressively adopt renewable sources of energy." ...

... Joby Warrick of the Washington Post: "The formal adoption of the accord late Saturday was greeted with applause and cheers by thousands of weary delegates to the climate talks here. But the happy conclusion was preceded by days and weeks of tough bargaining, along with occasional flashes of drama." ...

... Thomas Kaplan of the New York Times: "In a stark display of the partisan divide in the United States over climate change, the Republican presidential candidates have said almost nothing about the Paris Agreement, even though whoever succeeds Mr. Obama will be tasked with carrying it out. Of the nine who will participate in Tuesday's prime-time debate on CNN, only Gov. John Kasich of Ohio would provide an assessment of the deal when asked on Sunday. The near-silence among Republicans is a striking illustration of the vastly different roles that climate change is playing in the presidential primaries for the two major parties." ...

... Paul Krugman: "Republican attitudes haven't changed, except for the worse: the G.O.P. is spiraling ever deeper into a black hole of denial and anti-science conspiracy theorizing. The game-changing news is that this may not matter as much as we thought.... New technology has fundamentally changed the rules.... Costs of solar and wind power have fallen dramatically, to the point where they are close to competitive with fossil fuels even without special incentives -- and progress on energy storage has made their prospects even better. Renewable energy has also become a big employer, much bigger these days than the coal industry.... Maybe we're not doomed after all."

Brian Ross, et al., of ABC News: "Fearing a civil liberties backlash and 'bad public relations' for the Obama administration, Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson refused in early 2014 to end a secret U.S. policy that prohibited immigration officials from reviewing the social media messages of all foreign citizens applying for U.S. visas, a former senior department official said.... A spokesperson for the DHS, Marsha Catron, told ABC News that months after [the official, John] Cohen left, in the fall of 2014, the Department began three pilot programs to include social media in vetting, but current officials say that it is still not a widespread policy. A review of the broader policy is already underway, the DHS said. The revelation comes as members of Congress question why U.S. officials failed to review the social media posts of San Bernardino terrorist Tashfeen Malik. She received a U.S. visa in May 2014, despite what the FBI said were extensive social media messages about jihad and martyrdom."

** Allyson Hobbs in the New Yorker: "... the scenes in 'The Birth of a Nation' from 1915 eerily reflect the deeply troubling realities of race in America in 2015.... Many of the stereotypes that fill the film persist; and, as we've learned over and over and over and over again, this is a still a country where people, and police, need to be reminded that black lives really do matter.... It isn't hard to see the themes of the film echoed in the current Presidential race, particularly in the words of Donald Trump, who has sounded a call for the birth of a new nation, one that he will 'make great again.'... For some Americans, President Barack Obama's two terms in office appear to resemble the period of misrule portrayed in 'The Birth of a Nation.'"

Mike Brunker & Polly Defrank of NBC News: Since Sandy Hook, an American child "has died by a gun every other day." CW: Yes, and Republicans are so afraid you'll find this out that they won't authorize the CDC to do research on gun violence.

Fred Barbash of the Washington Post: "Twitter has warned an undetermined number of users that their accounts may have been 'targeted by state-sponsored actors,' according to news reports and some users who received the notifications.... The targeting may have been aimed at obtaining information such as email addresses, IP addresses and/or phone numbers; Twitter added that it had no evidence at this point that the hackers had obtained account information.... The email [from Twitter] did not specify which government or 'state sponsor' might be behind the targeting...."

Presidential Race

AP: "CNN is inviting Gov. Chris Christie back to prime-time in the upcoming Republican presidential debate. The New Jersey governor, who had been dropped from the main stage during the last debate, is one of nine Republican presidential candidates to qualify for the network's prime-time event on Tuesday. Also among them: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who was 'on the bubble' of qualifying late last week, the network said. Front-runner Donald Trump will appear at center stage, flanked by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz, who is surging in Iowa. Other GOP hopefuls who qualified for the main stage include Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... We Can All Breate a Sigh of Relief. Thomas Kaplan of the New York Times: "Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky will retain his place on the main stage when the Republican presidential candidates debate on Tuesday, CNN said on Sunday, sparing Mr. Paul from what could have been a setback for his campaign. On Saturday, aides to Mr. Paul had indicated they would fight any decision by CNN to drop the senator to the so-called undercard debate when the candidates gather on Tuesday in Las Vegas. Mr. Paul was at risk of falling out of the main event because of his low poll numbers." (Also linked yesterday.)

It Ain't Over Till It's Over. Al Hunt of Bloomberg in the New York Times: "Voters can choose either party's primary in New Hampshire, and knowledgeable Republicans suggest that a heavy influx of independents could help push a mainstream conservative to the top spot. There is no movement yet, and it's possible that this vote could split rather evenly, with no candidate breaking out." ...

... Ted Cruz, Uniter! Brian Beutler: "If you believe Trump's robust lead both nationally and in every early primary state suggests he can actually win the nomination, none of [the jostling among other candidates] matters. But if you believe he will ultimately give way and his send his supporters defecting to the next-best thing, then Cruz is the guy to watch -- both on the debate stage Tuesday and as the debates give way to actual statewide contests just over a month from now."

Pity the Poor Billionaire. Gabriel Sherman of New York: "... the most important lesson the billionaires are learning this year is that they aren't much better at politics than Karl Rove. Well, not true. There is one billionaire who seems to have contemporary Republican politics figured out": Donald Trump.

Ambassador-at-Large Daniel Benjamin & Steven Simon in a Politico Magazine opinion piece: "In their jockeying for the Republican presidential nomination, GOP contenders -- Donald Trump above all -- have managed to exacerbate dramatically the two U.S. weaknesses most likely to erode our country's safety: fear and Islamophobia."

Kevin Robillard of Politico: "Donald Trump seemingly laid fault for the rise of ISIL and the Syrian civil war directly at the feet of ... Hillary Clinton on Sunday, claiming the former secretary of state 'killed hundreds of thousands of people with her stupidity.' Trump, appearing on "Fox News Sunday," shocked host Chris Wallace with his comments. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Sean Sullivan of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump sharpened his criticism of Republican presidential rival Ted Cruz in television interviews broadcast Sunday morning, lambasting Cruz's approach to the Senate and expressing doubts about whether the senator's "temperament" is fit for the presidency.... 'I don't think he has the right temperament,' Trump said of Cruz on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'I don't think he's got the right judgment.'" CW: Because Trump is the picture of tranquility & discernment. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Bradford Richardson of the Hill: "... Donald Trump says he does not agree with comments from Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia questioning the efficacy of affirmative action." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Benjamin Wallace-Wells in the New Yorker: Donald "Trump undoes the modern presidential campaign.... There's probably no organizing genius to the Trump campaign. But maybe there's a kind of accidental genius. That Trump had opted out of the machinery of the modern campaign freed him to chase a group of voters who were traditionally hard to reach. With no need for donors, he could go all in on economic nationalism; with no inclination to woo party élites, he could simply decline to assemble policy proposals; and with no aspirations ever to run again, he could demonize multiple minority groups." ...

... E. J. Dionne: "... most Americans would reject Trumpism when they finally got to have their say in a voting booth -- perhaps in the Republican primaries and certainly in the general election. Yet to ignore his ability both to win a following and to mesmerize the media is to wish away what is a real threat to democratic tolerance across the world's free nations.... For the first time in decades, the word 'fascism' is being used seriously by non-hyperbolic people in countries with a history of temperate politics."

Kevin Robillard: "Florida Sen. Marco Rubio repeated his concerns about Donald Trump's fitness to be commander-in-chief during an interview airing Sunday on NBC's 'Meet The Press.'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... New York Times Editors: "Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is boasting about his efforts to sabotage a program intended to keep health insurance markets stable and premiums low during the start-up years of the Affordable Care Act.... The big losers [in Rubio's sabotage efforts] were small insurers without ample reserves. More than a dozen nonprofit cooperatives that were new to the business have closed or soon will, in part, some of them say, because the government provided less money than they were counting on.... This has left hundreds of thousands of consumers scrambling to pick other plans.... His riders will benefit big insurers by driving out their smaller competitors. They could also drive up premiums for some people, as insurers try to recoup early losses or replenish their reserves. The Senate should block his new rider and find other sources of funds to pay companies what they were promised." ...

... Judd Legum of Think Progress: "... after numerous deflections, [Marco] Rubio [told Chuck Todd] he would simply appoint new Supreme Court justices who would overturn Obergefell," [the landmark marriage equality decision]. ...

... CW: As I wrote yesterday, there's no need to slime Rubio with his tenuous connection to a drug ring for which he bears no responsibility. He is plenty slimy in his own right.

Bradford Richardson: "Ben Carson doubled down on his stance that he will leave the GOP if party elite are planning to mount a floor fight at the nominating convention. 'Well, one of the reasons that I got into this is because I heard the frustration in the people who are so tired of back-room deals, of subterfuge, of dishonesty,' Carson said on ABC's 'This Week' on Sunday. 'And, you know, if that is the case, then you know I'm out of here.'"

Steve Chapman of the Chicago Tribune in Real Clear Politics: Ted Cruz's "patented formula is a mix of repellent ingredients: misrepresentation of facts, baseless smears, exaggerated sincerity and pretended solidarity with the average person. If Cruz tells you it's raining, you can leave your umbrella at home." CW: I'm not familiar with Steve Chapman, but he's been on the editorial board of the Chicago Tribune for a long time, so I'm guessing he's a conservative. Thanks to Citizen 625 for the link. ...

... CW: The topic of Cruz's discussion with Steve Inskeep of NPR was climate change. So to bolster his creds, Cruz set at the outset, "I believe that public policy should follow the science and follow the data. I am the son of two mathematicians and computer programmers and scientists." His upbringing gives Teddy a real interest in facts, doesn't it? So I thought I'd check to see what kind of "mathematicians, computer programmers & scientists" his parents were. Why, they worked in the oil & gas industry. As for young Ted, he works in the snake oil industry.

Beyond the Beltway

Michael Miller of the Washington Post: A "spate of anti-Islam vandalism comes as Muslims in southern California have rallied in support of the victims of the San Bernardino attack.... Southern California's simmering cauldron boiled over on Friday when a blaze erupted at the Islamic Society of the Coachella Valley.... Friday evening, authorities arrested Carl James Dial Jr. for arson, hate crime, and burglary." ...

... Margaret Hartmann of New York: "The FBI and police in Southern California opened a hate-crime investigation into the vandalism of two mosques in Hawthorne, California."

Ian Lovett & Adam Nagourney of the New York Times: "A man who was killed by sheriff’s deputies in a hail of 30 bullets in front of a gas station here was brandishing a gun at officers and passers-by, and he apparently fired it into the air at least six times during the encounter, the police said Sunday. The man, identified as Nicholas Robertson, 28, of Lynwood, was seen carrying a gun during the entire encounter on Saturday, the police said, displaying photographs and videos in which the gun was clearly visible in the suspect's hand. They said he had been acting erratically and had ignored the instructions of deputies from the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Office to drop his weapon, which officials described as a .45-caliber semiautomatic handgun."

Raw Story: Sparta, Missouri, "Police Chief Andrew Spencer resigned this week after it was revealed that he shot and killed an innocent dog that was in a cage and meant no one any harm. To make matters even worse, he took the puppy to a firing range and killed it there because he did not want to deal with finding its home."

The Commentariat -- December 13, 2015

Internal links removed.

Afternoon Update:

We Can All Breate a Sigh of Relief. Thomas Kaplan of the New York Times: "Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky will retain his place on the main stage when the Republican presidential candidates debate on Tuesday, CNN said on Sunday, sparing Mr. Paul from what could have been a setback for his campaign. On Saturday, aides to Mr. Paul had indicated they would fight any decision by CNN to drop the senator to the so-called undercard debate when the candidates gather on Tuesday in Las Vegas. Mr. Paul was at risk of falling out of the main event because of his low poll numbers." ...

... AP: "CNN is inviting Gov. Chris Christie back to prime-time in the upcoming Republican presidential debate. The New Jersey governor, who had been dropped from the main stage during the last debate, is one of nine Republican presidential candidates to qualify for the network's prime-time event on Tuesday. Also among them: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who was 'on the bubble' of qualifying late last week, the network said. Front-runner Donald Trump will appear at center stage, flanked by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz, who is surging in Iowa. Other GOP hopefuls who qualified for the main stage include Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich."

Kevin Robillard of Politico: "Donald Trump seemingly laid fault for the rise of ISIL and the Syrian civil war directly at the feet of ... Hillary Clinton on Sunday, claiming the former secretary of state 'killed hundreds of thousands of people with her stupidity.' Trump, appearing on "Fox News Sunday," shocked host Chris Wallace with his comments. ...

... Sean Sullivan of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump sharpened his criticism of Republican presidential rival Ted Cruz in television interviews broadcast Sunday morning, lambasting Cruz's approach to the Senate and expressing doubts about whether the senator's "temperament" is fit for the presidency.... 'I don't think he has the right temperament,' Trump said of Cruz on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'I don't think he's got the right judgment.'" CW: Because Trump is the picture of tranquility & discernment.

... Bradford Richardson of the Hill: "... Donald Trump says he does not agree with comments from Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia questioning the efficacy of affirmative action."

Kevin Robillard: "Florida Sen. Marco Rubio repeated his concerns about Donald Trump's fitness to be commander-in-chief during an interview airing Sunday on NBC's 'Meet The Press.'"

*****

Joby Warrick & Chris Mooney of the Washington Post: "Negotiators from 196 countries approved a landmark climate accord on Saturday that seeks to dramatically reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases blamed for a dangerous warming of the planet.... The deal was struck in a rare show of near-universal accord, as poor and wealthy nations from across the political and geographic spectrum expressed support for measures that require all to take steps to battle climate change. The agreement binds together pledges by individual nations to cut or limit emissions from fossil-fuel burning, within a framework of rules that provide for monitoring and verification as well as financial and technical assistance for developing countries.... The agreement is a major diplomatic achievement for the Obama administration, which has made climate change a signature issue in the face of determined opposition from congressional Republicans, many of whom dispute the scientific consensus that links man-made pollution to the Earth's recent warming." CW: Making the GOP out of step with the whole world -- and a threat to the Earth itself. They are exceptional troglodytes. ...

... Julie Davis of the New York Times: "Six years ago, President Obama came away from a round of global climate talks bitter and frustrated, having been reduced to personally chasing other world leaders around a Copenhagen conference center and bursting uninvited into a meeting with them to salvage a pact that left many disappointed. On Saturday, Mr. Obama strode triumphantly into the Cabinet Room of the White House to declare victory in his quest for an ambitious climate agreement, after 195 nations reached an accord in a Paris suburb that commits them to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.... For Mr. Obama, the agreement represents a legacy-shaping success, destined to join his health care law in the annals of his most lasting achievements":

... Daniella Diaz of CNN: "Hillary Clinton quickly lauded Saturday's agreement of a global climate change pact in Paris, calling it an important step in protecting the planet, though her foremost challenger, Bernie Sanders, said he was unimpressed by the deal.... Sanders ... said that while the agreement was a step forward, it not enough to tackle climate change. 'The planet is in crisis. We need bold action in the very near future and this does not provide that,' he said in a statement. 'In the United States, we have a Republican Party which is much more interested in contributions from the fossil fuel industry than they care about the future of the planet....'" ...

... Melanie Schmitz of Bustle: "While the move was generally celebrated worldwide, in the United States, GOP candidates' reactions to the Paris Agreement have been largely MIA.... The Republican Party itself hasn't stayed mum on the topic. 'This agreement is no more binding than any other "agreement" from any conference of the parties over the last 21 years,' said Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Oklahoma), who currently serves as chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, in a statement." ...

... Kevin Freking of the AP: "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said [President] Obama is 'making promises he can't keep' and should remember that the agreement 'is subject to being shredded in 13 months.' McConnell noted that the presidential election is next year and the agreement could be reversed if the GOP wins the White House." CW: Right there, in & of itself, is the reason to get your asses to the polls & vote for Democrats, my fuzzy-headed lefty friends.

Katie Williams & Sarah Ferris of the Hill: "Democrats' latest push on gun legislation appears likely to fall short, as Republicans look to beat back a proposal to restore the flow of federal dollars for gun violence research as part of a sweeping government spending bill now under consideration. On the heels of a string of mass shootings -- including this month's deadly attacks in San Bernardino, Calif. -- House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) led calls to repeal the 19-year-old funding prohibition this week, adding it to her list of demands during this week's budget talks. But Pelosi has carefully refrained from a threat to reject the overall bill if her demand isn't met...."

Matt Apuzzo, et al., of the New York Times: "Tashfeen Malik, who with her husband carried out the massacre in San Bernardino, Calif., passed three background checks by American immigration officials as she moved to the United States from Pakistan. But none uncovered what Ms. Malik had made little effort to hide — that she talked openly on social media about her views on violent jihad. She said she supported it. And she said she wanted to be a part of it.... Had the authorities found the posts years ago, they might have kept her out of the country. But immigration officials do not routinely review social media as part of their background checks, and there is a debate inside the Department of Homeland Security over whether it is even appropriate to do so." CW: Hmm, seems "appropriate" to me. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... As contributor Gloria wrote (in part) in yesterday's Comments thread: "One has to wonder about all the billions being spent on homeland security when they don't even check Facebook! Perhaps it's too easy and too cheap, and doesn't require all that exciting and invasive espionage stuff. And too effective.... Am I too naive to think that social media would be your first port of call in any background check?"

Elizabeth Chuck of NBC News: "While the world has been focused on Europe's migrant crisis, apprehensions of unaccompanied minors along America's own border have exploded: More than 10,000 undocumented children have been stopped in just the last two months, according to U.S. Border and Customs Protection."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Eric Boehlert of Media Matters, in Salon: "81:1.... That's the ratio of TV airtime that ABC World News Tonight has devoted to Donald Trump's campaign (81 minutes) versus the amount of TV time World News Tonight has devoted to Bernie Sanders' campaign this year. And even that one minute for Sanders is misleading because the actual number is closer to 20 seconds.... The network newscasts are wildly overplaying Trump, who regularly attracts between 20-30 percent of primary voter support, while at the same time wildly underplaying Sanders, who regularly attracts between 20-30 percent of primary voter support. For the entire year."

Presidential Race

Jennifer Steinhauer of the New York Times: "Concerned about the harshly negative presidential campaign dominated by Donald J. Trump, the nation's highest-ranking Republican says Congress must confront polarizing populism by promoting an 'inclusive' policy-focused agenda to counter any personality-driven run sure to cost his party the White House. That Republican, Speaker Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, said he felt professionally obligated to support whoever wins the party's presidential nomination next year. Yet he said he believed that congressional Republicans must set a policy agenda that offered a clear contrast to the angry insurgent refrain blasting into the winter primaries."

Ben Schreckinger of Politico: "Donald Trump praised Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, panned Chief Justice John Roberts and celebrated the First Amendment rights of his protesters at a town hall in South Carolina on Saturday." Also can't flush his own shit down the toilet. CW: No surprise there. ...

John McCormick of Bloomberg: "... Ted Cruz has surged ahead to become the latest front-runner in the campaign for the Iowa caucuses, dislodging Ben Carson and opening an impressive lead over a stalled Donald Trump, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows." ...

... Gabriel Debenedetti of Politico: "Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta handicapped the GOP race for 90 Democratic donors assembled at a private fundraising event in Berkeley, California, on Thursday night, according to a Clinton backer who was in the room, telling the crowd that he viewed Cruz as the likeliest nominee, followed by Trump, and then Marco Rubio." ...

... Alex Jaffe of NBC News: "Florida Sen. Marco Rubio boasts of being the only Republican presidential candidate to have dealt a blow to Obamacare -- but he's also insured under the law. Rubio's campaign confirmed to NBC News that the GOP presidential candidate and his family remain insured under the law, through the D.C. exchange. He first signed up in 2013, at which point spokeswoman Brooke Sammon told the Tampa Bay Times that Rubio 'spent time looking at all the options and decided to enroll through the D.C. exchange for coverage for him and his family.'... Rubio's decision to accept a federal subsidy offered to congressional lawmakers and their staff could complicate his declaration on the trail that he's successfully undermined the law." ...

... Manuel Roig-Franzia & Scott Higham of the Washington Post: Marco Rubio's brother-in-law, with whom Marco was close, was a drug lord -- the Number Two man in a big Miami drug operation back in "Miami Vice" days. Marco was much younger than his brother-in-law & had nothing to do with the business. CW: I'm not sure why newspapers print this stuff. Most of us have a sleazy relative. I don't have any outright criminals in my close family (or extended family, as far as I'm aware), but that's my good fortune; it has nothing to do with merit. Having an older in-law who ran a criminal enterprise is no reflection on Marco. He's a creep in his own right.

Daniel Strauss of Politico: "Start typing the words 'is Rand Paul...' into Google, and the search engine's autocomplete function fills in the rest of the question: '... still running for president.' The answer, of course, is yes — but barely. Indeed, if Paul were a patient on the operating table, he'd be flat-lining right now. By nearly every measure, the Kentucky senator's White House bid is struggling to find a pulse. Paul is on the verge of being demoted to the undercard stage in the next Republican presidential debate, the result of poll numbers that haven't moved above single digits since the summer. He isn't faring much better in state polls, either." ...

... Angelina Sacedo & Robert Way of the Boston Globe: "Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is confident he will be on the primetime Republican debate stage Tuesday, but if he falls short, he will make an announcement this week about what comes next. Asked Saturday by the Globe specifically if he would drop out of the race for president if he didn't qualify for the main-stage GOP debate, Paul said: 'We will make an announcement, on that, on Tuesday." ...

... Tweak Me. Timothy Cama of the Hill: "Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) wants CNN to tweak the rules for its upcoming GOP presidential debate to ensure that he makes it to the main stage. Based on recent polling, Paul risks being pushed to the undercard debate for CNN's Dec. 15 event.... 'We think if they give us the same treatment that Carly Fiorina was given last time, that you measure from debate to debate, that we do meet the criteria,' Paul said Friday night on Fox News...."

Beyond the Beltway

Rebecca Elliott of the Houston Chronicle: "State Rep. Sylvester Turner won the Houston mayor's race with a down-to-the-wire finish to edge businessman Bill King on Saturday." Turner is a Democrat. ...

... MEANWHILE, in Austin. Dave Montgomery of the New York Times: "Only a handful of gun-rights advocates and those supporting Texas' new, less restrictive campus-carry law showed up near the University of Texas campus ... on Saturday for a highly publicized but divisive demonstration and mock shooting in favor of ending gun-free zones. A few demonstrators carried legal AK-47 and AR-15 rifles before the first stage of the gathering.... They were outnumbered by throngs of reporters, photographers and television cameras, and later by counter-demonstrators. Organizers of what was billed as the Life and Liberty Walk to End Gun Free Zones had agreed not to go onto campus grounds after university officials warned them they would be trespassing. The event took place as Texas colleges and universities prepared to put into place a new state law permitting adult owners of licensed guns to carry them inside campus buildings."

Ashley Soley-Cerro, et al., of KTLA Los Angeles: "Investigators say a man was armed and turning toward [Los Angeles County] sheriff's deputies when they fatally shot him in Lynwood[, California] Saturday, as video emerged showing the man apparently walking away as a barrage of bullets were fired at him, video provided to KTLA shows.... The man[, Nicholas Robertson, who was black,] died at the scene.... A person who wished to remain anonymous sent KTLA a 29-second video Saturday afternoon that apparently captured some of fatal incident."

News Ledes

New York Times: "Marjorie Lord, an actress who achieved success as the comedian Danny Thomas's wife on the Emmy-winning comedy series 'The Danny Thomas Show,' but to her frustration found herself being typecast as a housewife for years afterward, died on Nov. 28. She was 97."

New York Times: "French voters dealt a sharp setback to the far-right National Front in elections on Sunday, depriving the party of victory in any of the country's 13 regions, according to projections based on exit polls. A week after the National Front came out on top in the first round of voting, France sent a far different message, with the party losing even in a northern region where its charismatic leader, Marine Le Pen, had been widely expected to win."

AP: "At least 19 Saudi women have won seats on local municipal councils a day after women voted and ran in elections for the first time in the country's history, according to initial results released to The Associated Press on Sunday."

AP: "Leipzig police say 69 officers have been injured in clashes with rioting leftwing protesters and that they had to use tear gas and water cannons to disperse the group. Some 50 police cars were also damaged in the riots Saturday evening, which started after hundreds of leftwing activists demonstrated against a rally by far-right protesters in the eastern German city of Leipzig earlier in the day."

The Commentariat -- Dec. 12, 2015

Internal links, defunct audio & video removed.

Afternoon Update:

Matt Apuzzo, et al., of the New York Times: "Tashfeen Malik, who with her husband carried out the massacre in San Bernardino, Calif., passed three background checks by American immigration officials as she moved to the United States from Pakistan. But none uncovered what Ms. Malik had made little effort to hide -- that she talked openly on social media about her views on violent jihad. She said she supported it. And she said she wanted to be a part of it.... Had the authorities found the posts years ago, they might have kept her out of the country. But immigration officials do not routinely review social media as part of their background checks, and there is a debate inside the Department of Homeland Security over whether it is even appropriate to do so." CW: Hmm, seems "appropriate" to me.

Sewell Chan of the New York Times lists some of the key elements of the climate change agreement being voted on in Paris today.

*****

White House: "In this week's address, the President praised our country’s resilience in the face of terrorism, and discussed how we will keep America safe":

Coral Davenport of the New York Times: "Early Saturday morning, United Nations officials said they had reached agreement overnight on new language for the final draft of the pact, which would be released publicly at 11:30 a.m. Paris time. The officials also said that the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, hoped to bring that text up for a final approval by Saturday." ...

     ... Update: "Delegates on Saturday were presented with the final draft of a landmark climate accord that would for the first time commit nearly every country to lowering planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions as a way to help stave off the most drastic effects of climate change. The document was made available midafternoon, after several delays while negotiators wrangled behind the scenes to nail down final details." ...

     ... New Lede: "With the sudden stroke of a gavel on Saturday night, representatives of 195 countries reached a landmark climate accord that will, for the first time, commit nearly every country to lowering planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions to help stave off the most drastic effects of climate change."

... Joby Warrick & Chris Mooney of the Washington Post: "Diplomats from 196 countries prepared to vote Saturday on a far-reaching climate accord that seeks to halt the rapid growth of man-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and prevent a dangerous warming of the planet." ...

... The Guardian is running a liveblog of developments & reactions.

Burgess Everett & Seung Min Kim of Politico: "After weeks of withering criticism from comedian Jon Stewart, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell guaranteed on Friday that a health care bill for 9/11 first responders will be included in a must-pass, year-end spending deal. Stewart has barnstormed Capitol Hill and blanketed the media, including his old show this week, in an all-out lobbying campaign for the roughly $8 billion measure." ...

... Kelsey Snell of the Washington Post: "The House on Friday passed a stop-gap spending bill that will give Congress until the middle of next week to complete a deal on a year-end appropriations package needed to fund the government. The measure passed in a voice vote after minimal debate. The Senate passed the legislation by voice vote on Thursday.... Negotiators plan to work through the weekend as they continue to haggle over what policy riders should be attached to the legislation and how to handle a separate package of tax breaks for businesses and individuals that will likely be attached to the bill or moved at the same time." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court agreed on Friday to decide whether states can make it a crime for motorists suspected of drunken driving to refuse breath, blood or urine tests. Thirteen states have such laws. The court took up the question in three cases: one from Minnesota and two from North Dakota, which were consolidated for a single argument."

** Dexter Thomas of the Los Angeles Times: "Many black scientists are feeling annoyed this week over comments made by Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.... 'Most of the black scientists in this country don't come from schools like the University of Texas,' Scalia said from the bench. 'They come from lesser schools.'... Chanda Prescod-Weinstein[, a theoretical cosmologist (no, that doesn't mean she's studying the value of make-up),] ... noted a 2010 study of MIT faculty that showed that 59% of all underrepresented minorities in science departments came from either MIT, Harvard or Stanford. Other schools that were highly represented were similarly prestigious universities, such as UC Berkeley and Yale. The University of Texas, which Scalia suggested was too fast-paced for some black students, was not on the list."

Capitalism Is Awesome, Ctd. Andrew Pollack of the New York Times: "Martin Shkreli is once again provoking alarm with a plan to sharply increase the price of a decades-old drug for a serious infectious disease. This time the drug treats Chagas disease, a parasitic infection that can cause potentially lethal heart problems.... Mr. Shkreli has said he hopes to obtain such a voucher by getting the Chagas disease drug approved by the Food and Drug Administration for sale in the United States. Critics say that it would be another case of the system being abused by awarding a voucher not for developing a new drug but merely for obtaining F.D.A. approval of a drug already used in tropical countries." ...

... CW: Capitalism really is not this awesome. Pardon me for stating the obvious, but there oughta be a law against this type of rank thievery. That there is not is an indictment of our laissez-faire Congress. They can repeal ObamaCare dozens of times, but they won't do a thing against drug-company gouging of insurance companies, sick people & insurance premium-payers. Martin Shkreli's greatest service to his country should be to get Congress off its collective ass to stop Martin Shkreli & his ilk.

Ian Lovett, et al., of the New York Times: "Federal investigators believe that more than any other witness, [Enrique] Marquez, a convert to Islam, has 'held the keys' to understanding what motivated Mr. Farook and his wife, Tashfeen Malik, and may shed light on whom they were in contact with in the years leading up to the attack, according to one senior law enforcement official."

CBS News: "Treasury Secretary Jack Lew won't be deciding which woman to feature on the next $10 dollar bill until 2016, after initially saying he would finalize a pick by the end of the year...."

Jerry Markon of the Washington Post: "The United States and Cuba said Friday that they will re-establish direct mail service between the two countries for the first time in more than a half century, the latest sign of thawing relations between the long-time adversaries. In separate statements, the State Department and the Cuban embassy in Washington said the agreement was reached Thursday during discussions in Miami. It calls for a pilot program to provide mail flights between the United States and Cuba, rather than routing mail through a third country as has been done for decades."

Presidential Race

Nolan McCaskill & Kyle Cheney of Politico: "Ben Carson on Friday blasted the Republican National Committee following a Washington Post report that nearly two-dozen establishment party figures were prepping for a potential brokered convention as Donald Trump continues to lead most polls.... 'If the leaders of the Republican Party want to destroy the party, they should continue to hold meetings like the one described in the Washington Post this morning,' Carson said in a statement released by his campaign.... 'If it is correct, every voter who is standing for change must know they are being betrayed. I won't stand for it,' said Carson, who added that if the plot is accurate, 'I assure you, Donald Trump won't be the only one leaving the party.'" ...

... Christopher Massie of BuzzFeed: "Rand Paul said on Friday that, if the Republican establishment tries to block an outsider candidate from winning the party's nomination through a brokered convention, 'there'll be war within the party and they'll destroy the party.'" CW: In case you forgot, Li'l Randy is still running for president. ...

... The statisticians at 538 discuss the probability of a contested GOP convention & of the chances they'll all go play poker in Vegas tonight. ...

... BUT. Ian Millhiser of Think Progress explains how the party regulars could trump Trump. "With many candidates still in the race, and Trump commanding a strong plurality -- but nowhere near a majority -- in the polls, it's easy to imagine a scenario where Trump wins more primary votes than any other candidate but still lacks enough delegates to lock up the nomination. Indeed, the delegate math seems to favor the establishment." CW: If party poobahs dumped Trump, it would make Ben Carson as mad as H-E-Double-Hockey-Sticks, which would in turn terrify Reality Chex contributor Ophelia M. (see yesterday's Comments thread.) ...

... AND McKay Coppins of BuzzFeed reports on a "secret plan to nominate Mitt Romney from the convention floor." CW: Just because he lost to President Obama doesn't mean the Mittster couldn't best, say, Hillary Clinton. He's still handsome & presidenty-looking; he's got that 47-percent thing going for him; he's got the self-deportation (super-humane!); and best of all, he has a secret weapon to beat a female candidate: "binders full of women"!

** Jackie Calmes of the New York Times: Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Calif.), who was born in a World War II U.S. internment camp for Japanese-Americans, responds to Donald Trump's favorable invocation of the camps. Read the whole story. CW: And I take back some, if not all, of the nasty things I've said over the years about former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-Wy.).

Philip Klein of the Washington Examiner: "For decades, liberals have created a caricature of Republicans as being more about bombast and white resentment than substance and principles. Should Donald Trump win the GOP presidential nomination, it would help validate this cartoonish portrait. That's why those who work to elect Republicans and advance conservative policy ideas are recoiling from his dominance in polling. It's why liberals are greeting his rise with 'I told you sos' and why their allies in the media are perfectly content to promote Trump and allow him to define the GOP electorate." CW: Klein is a conservative writer. I love the part about the how the liberal media are part of the left-wing conspiracy promoting Trump just to make Republicans look bad. Via Paul Waldman.

Olivia Nuzzi of the Daily Beast went out & talked to some people who have made campaign contributions to Donald Trump. Entertainment-wise, Trump has nothing on his supporters.

Press Association, in the Guardian: "The PGA Tour is to consider alternative venues for the WGC-Cadillac Championship following Donald Trump's latest controversial comments. The Championship is to be staged at Trump's National Doral in Miami in March but may be moved elsewhere after 2016. The announcement comes after the course's owner Trump ... caused widespread anger and consternation by calling for a 'total and complete' ban on Muslims entering America." ...

... Ben Kamisar of the Hill: "Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump on Thursday vowed to issue an executive order to mandate the death penalty for anyone who kills a police officer.... [He was] speaking to a New Hampshire crowd alongside the New England Police Benevolent Association, shortly after the group voted to endorse Trump." ...

... ** "What You See Is What You Get." Mark Bowden, in Vanity Fair, remembers "a long, awkward weekend" he spent with Donald Trump in November 1996, as part of his research for a Playboy profile of Trump: "Trump struck me as adolescent, hilariously ostentatious, arbitrary, unkind, profane, dishonest, loudly opinionated, and consistently wrong. He remains the most vain man I have ever met. And he was trying to make a good impression.... His behavior was cringe-worthy.... Time after time the stories he told me didn't check out.... It was hard to watch the way he treated those around him, issuing peremptory orders.... Trump remains the only person I have ever written about who tried to bribe me.

Paul Farhi of the Washington Post: "Conspiracy promoter Alex Jones & Donald Trump "shared a microphone, and some common ground, last week in what may have been a dubious first -- the first time a leading presidential candidate has been interviewed by a media figure from the far extremes.... Trump finding common ground with Jones is in keeping with Trump's own rocky relationship with facts and credible information during the campaign. Many of Trump's more controversial assertions since he declared for president have come from the murky swamp of right-wing, libertarian and flat-out paranoid sources that have proliferated and thrived as the Internet and social media have grown." ...

... CW: It's absolutely terrific -- and high time -- for the MSM to call out Trump's mendacity. Farhi's labelling of Trump as a serial truther is a good first step. Just fact-checking his individual lies is not enough.

What mass deportation might look like:

... This can't be right. Trump said deportation would be "very humane."

Coming to Black-and-White TV: "Ted Cruz's Amateur Hour." -- New York Times Editors: "His favorite line on ISIS seems to be, 'We will carpet-bomb them into oblivion,' which he said in Iowa last week. His irresponsible chatter is of a piece with most Republican presidential candidates, who are busy offering phony prescriptions for the biggest foreign threat the United States faces.... 'Carpet-bombing' is a term used by amateurs trying to sound tough. Indiscriminate bombing has never been a military strategy, and it would be senseless in an age of 'smart' weaponry and precise targeting. In Syria and Iraq, mass bombing would kill hundreds of innocent civilians and fuel radicalization. That's why military leaders utter the term 'carpet-bomb' only while laughing at Mr. Cruz.... Ted Cruz ... decries terrorists' taking of innocent lives while agitating for bombing that would kill thousands of noncombatants and radicalize thousands more. What he's saying shows an utter lack of fitness to command America's armed forces." ...

... Ted Cruz's Amateur Hour, Episode 2. Emily Atkin of Think Progress does an excellent job of debunking exceptional climate scientist Ted Cruz. At a hearing of the Senate's Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, which Ted chaired, he came up with some downright laughable "facts." But then this is what happens when you get your climate "facts" from Michelle Bachmann's favorite science sites.

Beyond the Beltway

Paloma Esquivel, et al., of the Los Angeles Times: "A fire Friday at a mosque appears to have been intentionally set, authorities say, and has prompted condemnations and alarm in this Riverside County community and beyond. The fire at the Islamic Society of the Coachella Valley mosque is one of several incidents over the past week that officials are investigating as possible backlashes to the San Bernardino terrorist shootings. Late Friday, authorities said they had detained someone but released no additional details."

Travis Gettys of the Raw Story: "A Muslim woman was nearly shot Thursday as she left a Florida mosque, and another woman was nearly run off the road. Someone fired at least one gunshot at the woman as she drove away from the mosque in east Tampa, near Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, reported WTSP-TV. She was not injured, and police have not identified or arrested a suspect. Another Muslim woman reported a man threw rocks and other items at her and tried to run her off the road as she drove away from a mosque in New Tampa."

Seriously Not Helpful. Shaun Boyd of CBS Denver: "A board member for the American Civil Liberties Union of Colorado has resigned after urging people to kill supporters of presidential candidate Donald Trump. Loring Wirbel's Facebook post was captured by The Daily Caller -- a right-leaning online newspaper. The post states, 'The thing is, we have to really reach out to those who might consider voting for Trump and say, "This is Goebbels. This is the final solution. If you are voting for him I will have to shoot you before Election Day." They're not going to listen to reason, so when justice is gone, there's always force....'"

William Rashbaum & Susanne Craig of the New York Times: "Dean G. Skelos, the former majority leader of the New York Senate, and his son were found guilty of federal corruption charges on Friday, a quick and devastating follow-up punch to the State Capitol, which has seen two entrenched leaders convicted and removed from office in less than two weeks. The jury in Federal District Court in Manhattan took roughly eight hours over two days to reach its verdict against Senator Skelos, 67, and his son, Adam B. Skelos, 33, finding them guilty of all eight bribery, extortion and conspiracy counts."

Alan Pyke of Think Progress: "Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) likely knew that there was unreleased video evidence of Officer Jason Van Dyke killing 17-year-old Laquan McDonald within 50 days of the shooting, internal emails obtained by NBC Chicago indicate. The emails show Emanuel staffers discussing the existence of dashcam video of the killing in early December of last year, as Emanuel's re-election effort was entering the home stretch. The city sought to suppress the video for over a year before a judge forced Chicago to release it to the public last month." ...

... Martin Longman of the Washington Monthly: "You'd really have to be stupid not to see through the scam Emanuel pulled to conceal police misconduct in the killing of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald until after he had been safely reelected. I mean, we now know that his office was apprised of the fact that there was video footage at least two months before election day. And even if it isn't yet completely established that Emanuel knew by then that the police were engaged in a cover-up, the totality of the rest of the record is crystal clear. Emanuel joined in the cover-up.... Either he covered up a murder or he's the kind of steward of the people's tax money who allows $5 million dollars [paid to the McDonald family right after Emanuel's re-election] to be handed out without asking why. I think calls for his resignation are totally legitimate."

Ben Fenwick & Alan Schwartz of the New York Times on the black women whom former Oklahoma City police officer Daniel Holtzclaw raped & sexually abused in other ways. When Janie Liggins filed a complaint, her "story sounded similar to a previous complaint, leading investigators to uncover a dozen more tales of poor, vulnerable black women being exploited, and in some cases raped, by a young officer of mixed race.... The accusations against Mr. Holtzclaw were particularly grave, and distinct, involving what prosecutors described as a pattern of preying on women whose allegations would be considered less credible." ...

... Sarah Larimer of the Washington Post: "One day after Daniel Holtzclaw was convicted of several sex crimes, including rape, two of the 13 women who said they were victimized by him discussed their violent encounters with the former Oklahoma City police officer." ...

... Sarah Kaplan of the Washington Post has more on Janie Liggins, "J.L." in her story.

Abby Goodnough of the New York Times: "More than seven in 10 residents of Kentucky want their new governor, Matt Bevin, to keep the state's expanded Medicaid program as it is, according to a new poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation. And more than half of respondents described Medicaid as important for themselves and their families, underscoring the program's substantial reach in the state and the challenges Mr. Bevin may face if he seeks to scale back or modify it." CW: But, you know, we voted in the guy who promised to gut the program. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Christine Hauser of the New York Times: "The gunslinging bystander who drew national attention when she opened fire at fleeing shoplifters in a Home Depot parking lot [in Michigan] vowed Wednesday that she will never help anyone again." CW: Well, see, she made a mistake & she learned her lesson. Now if she see's a drowning puppy or a house on fire she'll just walk on by. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

News Lede

Washington Post: "Polling stations have closed, ending a historic day in which women for the first time took part in Saudi Arabia's elections, marking another step at reforms in a country that still imposes strict rules such as a ban on women driving."