The Commentariat -- Nov. 12, 2014
Internal links, political maps removed.
Mark Landler of the AP: "China and the United States made common cause on Wednesday against the threat of climate change, staking out an ambitious joint plan to curb carbon emissions as a way to spur nations around the world to make their own cuts in greenhouse gases. The landmark agreement, jointly announced here by President Obama and President Xi Jinping, includes new targets for carbon emissions reductions by the United States and a first-ever commitment by China to stop its emissions from growing by 2030." The Washington Post story, by David Nakamura & Steven Mufson, is here. ...
... In a New York Times op-ed, Secretary of State John Kerry discusses the agreement. ...
... CW: Somebody should write an opera about this; instead, I suppose there will be claims that Obama's co-operation with Xi, against a fake environmental threat, proves he is a Communist. Climate denier Jim Inhofe, incoming chair of the Senate environment committee, should be able to get a couple of years' worth of "investigations" out of it. ...
... Let's see if Mitch McConnell is impressed with this remarkable breakthrough. Timothy Cama of the Hill: "Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) wasted little time Tuesday night in blasting President Obama's climate agreement with China as another costly, unpopular environmental move. 'Our economy can't take the president's ideological war on coal that will increase the squeeze on middle-class families and struggling miners,' McConnell said in a statement minutes after the White House announced the bilateral deal." ...
... James West of Mother Jones: "The shock announcement of an ambitious and wide-ranging climate deal between the United States and China is leaving one vociferous group of politicians red-faced: those that have always used China as an excuse for delaying climate action. Here's West's mashup of Republican excuse-making:
... CW: Don't worry, people. As noted above, Mitch McConnell already has a new line of attack: jobs! ...
... Besides, Science Is Just a Bunch of Wobbly Theories. Steve Benen: "For supporters of modern science, the prevailing political winds have to be discouraging. For example, congressional Republicans not only reject climate science en masse, but each of the incoming GOP senators are climate deniers." ...
... Here's the Michael Hilzig column, which Benen cites. Hilzig asks, in conclusion, "Do you want your scientific research conducted and supervised by scientists, or by ideologues for whom the search for truth is the least desirable thing on Earth?"
... Mark Landler: "President Obama and President Xi Jinping promoted the virtues of cooperation between China and the United States on Wednesday, drawing an unusually productive state visit to a close with a news conference that nevertheless laid bare stubborn differences over issues like the Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrations and press freedom."
Reuters: "Burma's transition from military rule has not been as fast as hoped and the government is 'backsliding' on some reforms, Barack Obama said in an interview published on Wednesday, hours before he was due to visit the country.... 'Even as there has been some progress on the political and economic fronts, in other areas there has been a slowdown and backsliding in reforms,' Obama told the Irrawaddy, a website and magazine that was published in neighbouring Thailand while the generals ran Burma."
Stephen Collinson of CNN: "Republicans poised to take control of Congress are already threatening to kill what could turn out to be President Barack Obama's most significant second-term achievement: a nuclear deal with Iran. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are quickly approaching a Nov. 24 deadline to reach an agreement that would freeze Iran's nuclear program in return for lifting international sanctions on the Islamic Republic." Via Greg Sargent. CW: Anything that smacks of a "peaceful solution" or "diplomacy" is anathema to the Party of War. ...
... Michael Crowley & Burgess Everett of Politico have more on the Republican (with the help of many Senate Democrats) efforts to undermine a nuclear deal with Iran. ...
... Gee, I wonder how Hillary Clinton will come down on a pact with Iran. Oh, heres a clue. Over to you, Bernie.
Katrina vanden Heuvel in the Washington Post: "... Republicans have no mandate because they offered no agenda. Republicans reaped the rewards of McConnell's scorched-earth strategy, obstructing President Obama relentlessly, helping to create the failure that voters would pin on the party in power. But the collateral damage is that the 'party of "no"' has no agreement on what is yes.... McConnell leads into a power a party truly unfit and unready to govern." ...
... Ron Fournier of the National Journal: "Two-thirds of voters in last week's elections are dissatisfied or angry with Republican Party leaders in Congress, according to exit polls, and nearly six in 10 disapprove of the GOP altogether. While it's undeniable which party won the most campaigns this year, the Republican Party didn't win the overall election -- not with numbers like that. The winners were disgust, apathy, and a gnawing desire for a better choice -- an alternative to what the two major parties are currently offering." CW: For once, Fournier gets something right. Tune in next year; it could happen again. ...
... Manu Raju & Burgess Everett of Politico: "Republicans are about to take over the Senate, but another group is on the rise, too: red-state Democrats. Red staters and other moderates could determine whether Mitch McConnell or Harry Reid prevails on any given cliff-hanger vote, making these Democrats the new power centers in the Senate." ...
... Charles Pierce takes exception of Raju & Everett's report. Something about guzzling Prestone. ...
... Sahil Kapur of TPM: "... Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) ... [will] need six Democrats to break filibusters and achieve the magic 60-vote threshold required to pass controversial legislation through the Senate, such as hacking away at Obamacare or approving the Keystone pipeline." Kapur names Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Angus King (I-Maine), & Jon Tester (Mont.). ...
... Republican Voters Overwhelmingly Favor Gridlock. Pew Research Center: "Within the Republican Party, only about a third of Republicans and Republican leaners (32%) want to see the GOP leadership work with Obama if it disappoints some groups of Republican supporters. About twice as many (66%) say GOP leaders should stand up to Obama even if less gets done."
Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "Nearly half of Americans will now live in states under total GOP control.... The GOP ... will now control more than two-thirds of state legislative chambers across the country -- as in nearly seven in 10. And given Republicans also won at least 31 governorships, they are basically in control of the state government in 24 states. That could soon hit 25 if they win the still-undetermined governor's race in Alaska." ...
... Paul Waldman: "If Democrats now evaluating the meaning of their loss don’t take a very hard look at their state legislative problem, they'll be ignoring one key factor that could keep them in the minority in the House -- and frustrate the prospects for attaining Democratic governing majorities -- for a long time." ...
... David Leonhardt of the New York Times: "As the 2016 presidential campaign begins to stir, the central question will be how both parties respond to the great wage slowdown. Neither has offered a persuasive answer so far -- let alone a solution -- which is why the public mood is so sour and American politics has been so tumultuous lately.... The challenge for the next election will be coming up with a version of the minimum-wage increase that applies to the middle class as well." ...
... CW: Leonhardt's suggestion is a middle-class tax cut & a rich people's tax hike. Unless he's envisioning a dramatic re-ordering of the tax code back to 1959 levels, this is just a band-aid with minimal effects that voters won't even notice. What is really needed is a rehaul of the tax code & other laws that force companies to reduce profits & raise wages for all workers, except top management. The notion that stockholders & CEOs should make millions while workers struggle along on pittances must be legislated out of existence. Yeah, capitalism is awesome. Over to you, Bernie.
Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "President Obama will have to get his nominee for attorney general past a Republican-controlled Senate, Democratic and Republican aides say. A packed schedule after the election is almost certain to push the vetting process for Loretta Lynch into January, when Republicans are set to take power in the upper chamber.... Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has not yet made a decision on whether to move Lynch's nomination in the lame-duck session, according to spokesman Adam Jentleson."
The Oatmeal explains net neutrality to Ted Cruz: 'It's about freedom." Do yourself a favor & read it. With apologies ot Dr. Seuss, next time Ted filibusters ObamaCare or whatever, he can read the Oatmeal to his daughters & show them the pictures. Via Paul Waldman.
Donna Brazile of CNN is sick of the sexist hits on Valerie Jarrett: "Women in Washington -- and in positions of power anywhere -- should be subjected to the same criticisms and held to the same standards as men. That does not include the assumption that any successful woman has attained her position through flattery, feminine wiles or her ability to provide maternal comfort to a more powerful man. We can criticize a person's performance without demeaning her based on gender." ...
... Dana Milbank says Obama suffers from an "administration of affirmation," much as Jimmy Carter did. "Much of the blame for the yes-men culture around Obama has been placed on a woman.... The issue is not Jarrett per se (it's good for a president to have friends nearby) but the lack of others to offset her power."
Brian Beutler: "Here are eight reasons for the ACA's supporters to stop freaking out -- at least for now. 1. The Legal Case Is Extremely Weak.... 2. The Roberts Court Is a Business Friendly Court.... 3. The Ruling Would Be Embarrassingly Hypocritical.... 4. An Adverse Ruling Could Be Self Correcting.... 5. Executive Discretion Is at Stake.... 6. An Adverse Ruling Would Be Immoral.... 7. An Adverse Ruling Would Be Politically Damaging to Republicans.... 8. An Adverse Ruling Would Define Roberts's Legacy, for the Worse." ...
... AND contributor James S. suggests if the Court strikes down ObummerCare, it could have unintended consequences:
... Here Beutler suggests a convoluted, if plausible, way that John Roberts could have his cake & eat it, too. ...
... Steve M. isn't buying much of Beutler's argument: "There's one reason I think the Court might save the law: because it's a motivator for Republican voters going into 2016. But that didn't work in 2012 -- I'm convinced that that's the principal reason Roberts saved it the first time -- so I'm not optimistic now. But we'll see." ...
... Ditto Ed Kilgore: "... color me skeptical. The one thing we know for sure is that there would be an explosion of joy, and quite literally dancing in the streets, in conservative precincts if the news breaks in June that 'the Supreme Court has dealt a fatal blow to Obamacare.'... The idea that Obamacare subsidies are a 'bribe' to encourage people to go along with their enslavement is deeply rooted on the Right. I have a hard time imagining conservatives agreeing to save them." ...
... CW: I suppose the Worst Supreme Court Since the 19th Century will Do the Wrong Thing, although it's always possible that Nino will side with the government to show how pissed-off he is with frivolous lawsuits. Tort reform!
Annals of "Justice," Ctd.
Rick Hasen in Slate: "Did Alabama legislators redraw district lines to hurt Democrats or to disenfranchise black voters?" The Supreme Court will have to decide, & it represents a difference between unlawful racism & Constitutional, politically-motivated gerrymandering.
Erik Loomis of LG&M: "With civil asset forfeiture, the real organized crime in this country these days is not the Mafia, it's the police. Or certain police departments anyway that self-fund by stealing your stuff whether or not you have actually committed a drug crime.... And if you are found not guilty of these crimes, do you get your stuff back? Ha ha ha. Of course not."
Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Fire Luke Russert. CW: While I was ironing yesterday, I turned on MSNBC for the first time since the election. I guess the show I caught was "The Cycle," which apparently features frat-boy Luke Russert as a regular panelist. If you want to know why MSNBC's ratings are in the tank, Luke Russert. What a cipher. He did not say one thing that a somewhat dimwitted junior-high-school student would not have said. He used the word "incredible" a lot. Other times, he dipped into adverbial territory, employing the word "incredibly." Here he is in a segment that aired Monday, discussing the base-energizing "silver lining" for Democrats that could result from the Supremes' gutting ObamaCare. Incredibly incredible.
AND MIT professor Jonathan Gruber, apparently recovering from his most recent foot-in-mouth flare-up, regrets he called us all stupid. Glad you're feeling better, professor. Health insurance is great isn't, it? ...
... Update. Dave Weigel introduces us to the "mild-mannered investment banker" who keeps outing Gruber's gaffes. CW: Personally, I'm not convinced that anybody who listens to Rush is properly characterized as "mild-mannered."
November Elections
Christopher Cadelago of the Sacramento Bee: "Democratic Rep. Ami Bera has pulled to within 530 votes of Republican challenger Doug Ose in the race for suburban Sacramento's 7th Congressional District. Ose, who finished election night with a 3,011-vote advantage over the freshman lawmaker, has seen his lead contract again nearly a week after polls closed Tuesday. The margin stood at about 2,000 votes since the last counting Thursday, when nearly 80,000 ballots were left across the county."
AND they're just getting around to counting votes in Alaska. ...
... Update. Becky Bohrer of the AP: "Republican Dan Sullivan won Alaska's U.S. Senate race, defeating first-term incumbent Democrat Mark Begich. Sullivan led Begich by about 8,100 votes on Election Night last week and held a comparable edge after election workers had counted about 20,000 absentee, early-voted and questioned ballots late Tuesday. Thousands more ballots remained to be counted, but the results indicated that Begich could not overcome Sullivan's lead."
Jack Healy of the New York Times: Voters ousted two Republican Colorado state legislators who were prominent gun-rights advocates. "Analysts said the whipsawing results were a lesson in how turnout can vastly change the landscape.... The dynamic seems to have empowered conservatives in the low-turnout recall vote last year, but rewarded Democrats this month in a midterm election in which mail-in ballots and a contested Senate race helped Colorado defy a nationwide pattern of sagging voter participation." Thanks to MAG for the lead.
Presidential Election
Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has spent months fishing for a strategist to guide his potential 2016 presidential campaign. On Monday, he hooked a big one: Tad Devine, one of the Democratic Party's leading consultants and a former high-level campaign aide to Al Gore, John Kerry, and Michael Dukakis. 'If he runs, I'm going to help him,' Devine said in an interview." ...
... Paul Waldman: "That could mean a genuinely interesting debate about the problems America confronts and how the Democratic party should address them. Sanders says he'll center his campaign on economic inequality and the struggles of the middle class, and this is what Clinton needs to address as well.... Of course, he&'d say he isn't running to do Hillary Clinton any favors. But the reality is that he would. By critiquing her from the left, he could pull her in his direction in order to satisfy primary voters, which on many issues would wind up being to her advantage."
Maggie Haberman & Glenn Thrush, in Politico Magazine, assess Hillary Clinton's presidential prospects. Among other matters, they run down Clinton's missteps in 2008: "It all coalesced into a single devastating paragraph Obama delivered with brutal force at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Des Moines, Iowa, in November 2007. Hillary Clinton, he told the party activists that night, was too cautious, too calculating, too caught up in the politics of the past. Even today, two full campaign cycles later, that broadside is a kind of Rosetta Stone for anyone crafting an anti-Clinton message":
Beyond the Beltway
Congratulations, Kansas, for Re-electing Sam & His Band. Brad Cooper of the Kansas City Star: "Kansas will collect $1 billion less in revenue in 2015 and 2016 than its projected expenses following massive income tax cuts signed into law by Republican Gov. Sam Brownback."
Way Beyond the Beltway
Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian of Foreign Policy: Vladimir Putin gives his coat to China's first lady Peng Liyuan; Chinese censors take down videos of Putin placing his coat around Peng's shoulders. Too "friendly," apparently.
News Ledes
New York Times: "Tanks and other military vehicles pouring over the border from Russia into eastern Ukraine. Nightly artillery battles in the region's biggest city, Donetsk, and reports of fighting around another regional capital. And now, sightings of the 'green men,' professional soldiers in green uniforms without insignia, the same type of forces that carried out the invasion of Crimea last spring."
Los Angeles Times: "U.S., British and Swiss regulators on Wednesday fined JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup and three other global banks a total of about $3.3 billion to settle investigations into attempted manipulation of foreign exchange rates. The fines, including the largest ever issued by Britain's Financial Conduct Authority, are the latest multibillion-dollar hit to the industry in the wake of alleged misconduct in the 2008 financial crisis and attempts to rig major international markets." ...
... The Guardian story is here.