The Commentariat -- Sept. 10, 2013
NEW. Jonathan Weisman & Alan Cowell of the New York Times: "The White House and a bipartisan group of senators joined the international diplomatic momentum on Tuesday to avert an American military attack on Syria over its use of chemical munitions in that country's civil war, responding positively to a Russian proposal aimed at securing and destroying those weapons. The group of senators, including some of President Obama's biggest supporters and critics, were drafting an alternative Congressional resolution that would give the United Nations time to take control of the Syrian government's arsenal of the internationally banned weapons." ...
... NEW. William Englund, et al., of the Washington Post: "A last-ditch effort to avert a U.S. military strike by transferring control of Syrian chemical weapons ran into obstacles Tuesday, as Russia balked at a French plan to enforce an international agreement under a binding U.N. Security Council resolution with a military option if necessary. An unexpected Russian proposal to place Syria's chemical weapons under international monitoring and ultimately destroy them had appeared to be gaining traction earlier in the day, as Syria embraced it, China and Iran voiced support, and the United States said it would explore the idea seriously. But a telephone conversation between French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, revealed a deep divide over their visions of the Security Council's role -- and particularly over the prospect of military action to ensure that an agreement would be honored." ...
... NEW. Sergei Loiko of the Los Angeles Times: "Syria confirmed Tuesday that it has accepted a Russian plan to allow its chemical weapons to be placed under international control and eventually dismantled. The Syrian agreement is based on the understanding that the plan could prevent a U.S. military strike, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said." ...
... Alan Cowell of the New York Times: "As the diplomatic pace quickened around Russia's plan for Syria to relinquish control of its chemical weapons, France said on Tuesday it would propose a United Nations Security Council resolution enshrining the idea while Moscow said it was working with the authorities in Damascus on a 'workable, precise and concrete plan' to carry the proposal forward." CW: I remain pleased that all of the world's superpowers are getting on board the Burns Plan bandwagon. ...
... In another New York Times "new analysis," Peter Baker writes, "In effect, Mr. Obama is now caught between trying to work out a deal with Mr. Putin, with whom he has been feuding lately, or trying to win over Republicans in the House who have made it their mission to block his agenda." ...
... CW: for what it's worth, I am more inclined to go with a version of contributor's Diane's analysis (see yesterday's Comments). You have to look at everybody's motives here. Obama credibly claims that the U.S. has been trying for a year to get Russia to encourage Assad to destroy his chemical arsenal. Either Russia wasn't going along or Assad was stonewalling (or a bit of both), but Putin has little motivation to approve of any other country's having chemical weapons, whether or not the country is currently a Russian ally. I have no doubt that Russia stepped up its pressure on Assad after the August attack. There is a reason Assad has been mum on this until Sunday; he, too, was looking for his best advantage. Whether he ordered the attack or, as seems quite possible, some of his military made the call, ultimately he has to take responsibility or he looks weak. There is also a reason that Obama suddenly decided to ask Congress for authorization. Domestically, it was prudent, but his main purpose was to stall to allow Russia time to further pressure Syria --which he was certainly aware was ongoing. There is also a reason that Obama & Putin met during the G-20 even though Obama had announced (a month or so ago) that he would not be meeting with Putin. At the G-20, they continued working out the details & discussing Russia's progress -- Obama or his spokesperson said as much following the meeting. ...
... I do think that the Kerry remark was serendipitous (I don't think the reporter, who spoke with an American accent [don't know who she is] was a plant.) After Kerry made the remark about Assad's destroying his weapons, he quickly said, "But that's not going to happen," or words to that effect; i.e., the negotiations between Russia & Syria were still in flux. There's also a reason that France is bringing the resolution to the Security Council; it's payback for their support (and & effort to solidify that support) for a U.S. military strike against Syria. And it's good for Holland, whose parliament is not supportive of a strike. If this whole thing works out, it's a win for everybody. Obama is not, as Baker thinks, caught between a rock & a hard place; it appears he may achieve his goal -- to relieve Assad of his chemical weapons capabilities without getting the U.S. into another trillion-dollar, ten-year war. He should tell the help to polish his Nobel medal. ...
... P.S. I should have mentioned another crucial player: Iran, whose new president, Hassan Rouhani, is no Ahm-a-dinnah-jacket, & who definitely does not want to be downwind of Assad's chemical fumes. It's likely he mentioned that to Assad. ...
... Update. Ed Kilgore: "... the Russian government's proposal ... could be a game-changer, at least temporarily. It comes, moreover, in the wake of a report from the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz that Russia and Iran were already preparing a peace proposal that involved surrender of chemical weapons and perhaps even a path to free elections in Syria." CW: Haaretz is now subscriber-firewalled, so I'm relying on Kilgore's report. The Haaretz report supports my theory of how all this behind-the-scenes stuff has been unfolding. And Kilgore agrees with me & with the New York Times Editors (see next link) on this much: "... with the situation in the House and in public opinion deteriorating rapidly, this new development could represent a 180-degree change in a positive direction for the Obama administration, and a plausible way out of a military conflict no one but neocons seemed to relish." ...
... CW: The New York Times Editorial Board, whose members generally are smarter than the news staff, have what I think is a better take on the Russian proposal. After outlining how the inspections, etc., must be managed, the editors conclude, "The diplomatic proposal creates at least a pause in the action. It could mean that the United States would not have to go it alone in standing firm against the Syrian regime. And it could open up a broader channel to a political settlement between Mr. Assad and the rebels -- the only practical way to end this war. It could also be a boon for Mr. Obama, personally, because he could take credit for pushing Syria and Russia into making this move." ...
... CW: Zachary Goldfarb of the Washington Post is right about this much: "Speaking Monday in London, Secretary of State John F. Kerry said that a U.S. military strike on Syria would constitute an 'unbelievably small, limited kind of effort.' Later at the White House, President Obama insisted that any such action would be significant. 'The U.S. does not do pinpricks,' he told an NBC News interviewer.... The dueling statements underscored the administration's muddled message on Syria." The reason it's President Obama instead of President Kerry is that Kerry has a long history of veering off-message. ...
... OR, as Joshua Keating of Slate puts it: "Kerry: Turn Over Your Chemical Weapons or Face ... 'Unbelievably Small' Consequences." ...
... Digby has an excellent post, comparing the Kerry gaffe to a blooper that averted the Cuban missile crisis. Read it. ...
... AND Max Read of Gawker has a humorous take on all this war stuff: "So! Maybe an unplanned press-conference line can help us avoid the war that another unplanned press-conference line almost got us into. Not to mention the apocalypse!" (The links are original.) ...
... Meanwhile, Ted Cruz has an op-ed in the Washington Post explaining why a tough guy like him will vote against a resolution to strike Syria. I forgot to read it & forgot to link it (but you can get to it via the WashPo front page, if you're interested). ...
... AND Kevin Drum argues that President Obama, like most presidents, is a happy warrior. ...
... Michael Gordon & Steven Myers of the New York Times: "President Obama called a proposal by Russia on Monday to avert a United States military strike on Syria over chemical weapons use 'a potentially positive development' but said he would continue to press for military action to keep the pressure up":
... Jennifer Epstein of Politico: "Obama said the idea of having Russia intervene to try to get Syria to turn over control of its chemical weapons has been on the table for more than a year. 'This is not new,' he told Fox News. 'I've been discussing this with President Putin for some time now,' he said, including conversations at last year's G-20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, and more recently. 'I did have those conversations' last week at the G-2o in St. Petersburg, Russia, he told PBS." ...
... Mario Trujillo of the Hill: "President Obama acknowledged Monday [in an interview with NBC] that even his wife, Michelle, is skeptical of having the U.S. become embroiled in another overseas military conflict." ...
... Philip Rucker of the Washington Post: "Former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton on Monday endorsed President Obama's call for military strikes against Syria and said 'it would be an important step' if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad surrendered his stockpile of chemical weapons." ...
... Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Monday delayed a vote on using military force against Syria. Faced with stiffening opposition from Republicans and skepticism from many Democrats, Reid said he would not rush the vote to begin considering the controversial use-of-force resolution. He insisted he was not delaying action because of a lack of votes. 'I've spoken to the Republican leader. I've talked to virtually all my Democratic senators and we have enough votes to get cloture,' he said." ...
... AP: "President Barack Obama will meet with Republican senators on Capitol Hill Tuesday to appeal for support on a use-of-force resolution against Syria. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's office says the president will attend lunch with the GOP lawmakers. The president had already planned to be on Capitol Hill Tuesday to meet with the Senate Democratic caucus." ...
... AP: "The State Department sought to tamp down the potential impact of [Secretary John] Kerry's comments by calling them a 'rhetorical' response to a hypothetical question and not 'a proposal.' Kerry spoke by phone with [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey] Lavrov shortly after making his comments in London, and officials familiar with the call said Lavrov had told Kerry that he had seen the remarks and would be issuing a public statement." ...
... James Fearon, in the Monkey Cage: "Much better to make a reasonable demand of Assad -- such as verifiably destroy your chemical weapons, and/or sign the CWC -- and then strike if he doesn't comply than to just jump to a punitive spanking. If he says Ok and complies, then Obama will have achieved the goal of stopping further use of chemical weapons in Syria and also of upholding and furthering a global norm against their use. If Assad says No or says Yes and then goes ahead and carries out more gas attacks,. then it is much easier to make the case and probably get more domestic and international support for a punitive strike."
Susan Stellin of the New York Times: "Newly released documents reveal how the government uses border crossings to seize and examine travelers' electronic devices instead of obtaining a search warrant to gain access to the data.... The documents were turned over to David House, a fund-raiser for the legal defense of Chelsea Manning, formerly known as Pfc. Bradley Manning, as part of a legal settlement with the Department of Homeland Security. Mr. House had sued the agency after his laptop, camera, thumb drive and cellphone were seized when he returned from a trip to Mexico in November 2010. The data from the devices was then examined over seven months." Homeland Security singled out House even though he had not been accused of a crime.
Lisa Rein of the Washington Post: "With fiscal pressures continuing to force spending cuts, government agencies made fewer than 90,000 new hires last year, the smallest number in six years and a 37 percent drop since 2009, federal data show." CW: somebody tell Rand Paul, please, because a year ago he thought the federal payroll was ballooning out of control, & I doubt Paul Krugman convinced him otherwise.
More Stupid GOP Tricks. Russell Berman, et al., of the Hill: "House Republican leaders on Tuesday will propose to their members that the House use a complex procedural tactic to defund ObamaCare that would press the fight but likely avoid a government shutdown.... Republicans who caught wind of the plan on Monday told The Hill it was unacceptable, and GOP leadership is anticipating push-back when it presents the proposal to the rank and file on Tuesday morning...."
Steve Benen on "The Three Stooges on the Road to Cairo" (Now Available in Video!): "Three sitting members of Congress decided on their own to do some foreign policy freelancing, contradicting the foreign policy of the United States, and making a propaganda video for those responsible for a military coup, offering support for a deadly crackdown on dissenters. Since when is this considered acceptable?" ...
... Emily Lodish of GlobalPost, in Salon, lists 11 amazing things Bachmann has said about the Middle East & North Africa. CW: only 11?
Local News
David Halbfinger of the New York Times: "On Tuesday, voters will take the first big step toward choosing a successor to Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, in a contest that has increasingly turned on key elements of his legacy on public safety and income inequality. But despite a widely publicized free-for-all among multiple candidates, fewer than one in four Democrats and Republicans are expected to cast a ballot in their party primaries." ...
... The New York Times' endorsements are here.
News Ledes
The New York Times is liveblogging New York City primary election results. Just now, at 9:00 pm ET, the Times reports that Bill DeBlasio has a "wide lead" in the race for Democratic candidate for mayor.
Reuters: "A federal appeals court rejected Google Inc's bid to dismiss a lawsuit accusing it of violating federal wiretap law when its accidentally collected emails and other personal data while building its popular Street View program. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals refused to exempt Google from liability under the federal Wiretap Act for having inadvertently intercepted emails, user names, passwords and other data from private Wi-Fi networks to create Street View, which provides panoramic views of city streets."
New York Times: It's election day in New York City. ...
... Update: "From Wall Street to Grand Army Plaza in Brooklyn, voters arrived at polling stations to find that none of the lever machines were working. Even with small crowds, voters described delays as workers struggled with jammed and broken equipment. In many cases, voters resorted to an even older technology: pen and paper."