The Commentariat -- Oct. 29, 2012
CW: For those of you in or near the path of the storms, heed the warnings & stay safe. On the West Coast of Florida, I'm nowhere near the epicenter of Sandy, yet the wind has been blowing strongly & non-stop for at least four days.
... Patrick McGeehan of the New York Times: "In coping with Hurricane Sandy, New York metropolitan area utilities will be mindful that many in the region were left without electricity for a week or more after Tropical Storm Irene." CW: that would include Dave S. (not sure if he lives in New York) and me. I was without water & power for 5+ days at my Upstate New York cottage. ...
... Alan Boyle, the science editor of NBC News, explains the factors that made Sandy a superstorm.
Presidential Race
My column for the New York Times eXaminer is on the lead op-ed in Sunday's New York Times, a piece by Frederick Harris claiming that "the Obama presidency has already marked the decline ... of a political vision centered on challenging racial inequality." I guess picking on professors is my new thing.
Michael Shear & Mark Landler of the New York Times: "President Obama on Monday morning abandoned political campaigning in the face of the huge storm barreling down on the East Coast, canceling an event in Florida and quickly heading back to Washington to coordinate emergency response from the White House."
Scott Keyes of Think Progress: "The federal government's ability to respond to natural disasters, like Hurricane Sandy currently bearing down on the East Coast, would be significantly hindered under a Romney-Ryan administration. At least three times, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have publicly demanded that the federal government only disburse disaster relief funding if Congress agreed to offsetting budget cuts elsewhere. This would hold desperately-needed disaster relief funding hostage unless Congress agreed to cuts elsewhere in the budget, an extraordinarily difficult prospect even in normal circumstances." ...
... Ryan Grim of Huffington Post: "During a CNN debate at the height of the GOP primary, Mitt Romney was asked, in the context of the Joplin disaster and FEMA's cash crunch, whether the agency should be shuttered so that states can individually take over responsibility for disaster response. 'Absolutely,' he said. 'Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that's the right direction. And if you can go even further, and send it back to the private sector, that's even better.'" With video. CW: so next hurricane or tornado, we can all write checks to Disasters R Us & Survival Suppliers, Inc. & hope they save us. Say your neighbor's tree fell across the road & he won't pay up, so you can't get to your house. Too bad. At some point, "the market" will work things out. Ain't capitalism grand? ...
"The War on Objectivity." Paul Krugman: "... the right -- and ... we're talking about mainstream commentators and publications -- has been screaming 'bias'! They know, just know, that Nate [Silver] must be cooking the books. How do they know this? Well, his results look good for Obama, so it must be a cheat. Never mind the fact that Nate tells us all exactly how he does it, and that he hasn't changed the formula at all.... This is really scary. It means that if these people triumph, science -- or any kind of scholarship -- will become impossible. Everything must pass a political test; if it isn't what the right wants to hear, the messenger is subjected to a smear campaign." ...
... NEW. The latest from unreliable weasel Nate Silver: "The conventional wisdom about this year's presidential race is that it has broken out of stasis to become wildly unpredictable. And yet, after a period of polling turmoil following President Obama's convention in Charlotte, N.C., and Mitt Romney's sharp rebound after the first presidential debate in Denver, the polling in most swing states now looks very similar to the way it did for much of the late spring and summer." CW: thanks, Nate! ...
... NEW. ALSO from Silver: "Hurricane Sandy is just too large a storm to make reliable guesses about where the vote might be depressed. And academic studies on the effects of natural disasters upon elections produce somewhat ambiguous results." ...
... NEW. BUT Adam Serwer has some intelligent thoughts and data on weather effects on elections.
In his column, Krugman writes, "If [Romney] wins, Medicaid -- which now covers more than 50 million Americans, and which President Obama would expand further as part of his health reform -- will face savage cuts. Estimates suggest that a Romney victory would deny health insurance to about 45 million people who would have coverage if he lost, with two-thirds of that difference due to the assault on Medicaid."
Best Romney ad ever. Stephen Webster of Raw Story has the raw story:
Jeremy Peters, et al., of the New York Times: "Despite repeated warnings from President Obama and his party that a flood of unrestricted donations from conservatives to outside groups would swamp them, the White House and its allies are at least holding their own. Over the last month, the pro-Obama forces have run more ads and, more critically, have reached audiences in roughly the same numbers as Mitt Romney and the group of well-financed conservative super PACs working to elect him."
NEW. Matt Viser of the Boston Globe highlights some of the dramatic shifts in Romney's stated policy preferences.
** Penn Bullock of The New Republic on on Stuart Stevens, the unscrupulous thug who runs Romney's campaign. Romney boasts about Stevens' resume'.
Jesse Drucker of Bloomberg News discovers another tax dodge Romney uses which allows him "to take advantage of the exempt status of charities without actually giving away much money.... In 1997, Congress cracked down on" this popular tax shelter, but those who had already established them -- like Romney -- are allowed by the 1997 law to retain them. And he does.
Where's Willard? Bill Carter of the New York Times: President Obama has appeared on a number of late night and other talk shows, but Mitt Romney's campaign has refused to book the GOP candidate. Romney said Dave Letterman "hates me." "Since then Mr. Letterman has waged an on-camera campaign to get Mr. Romney onto his visitors' couch, at one point even telling his viewers not to vote for the Republican unless he turned up. He hasn't."
Pat Garofalo of Think Progress: "President Obama is far and away the best president for corporate profits since 1900." In addition, "... real GDP growth per capita is far higher under Obama than it was under either Bush administration."
Episode 1,397,426 of "Our Deplorable Mainstream Media." With extras Rachel Maddow & E. J. Dionne. In this fingernails-on-blackboard segment, David Gregory invites Carly Fiorina to appear on his gag-inducing show "Press the Meat" so he and his buddy David Brooks can look downright reasonable:
... Jonathan Cohn of The New Republic on Romney's "Desperate, Deceptive Gambit" in Ohio. ...
... Sam Stein of the Huffington Post analyzes Romney's totally misleading auto bailout ad.
Charles Pierce does just an excellent job of taking down the Des Moines Register's devil-may-care endorsement of the bullshitter guy, then goes on to eviscerate the Sunday morning talkshow crowd -- even tho this is not really necessary to do because this is a gang that is exceptionally adept at self-parody.
Our Well-Informed Electorate. Andrew Kirell of Mediaite: "According to a new Associated Press survey, more Americans believe President Barack Obama is Jewish than believe that the president is a Muslim; while a plurality of the surveyed individuals believe he has 'no religion.'"
You'll notice [President Obama] has canceling his trips over the hurricane. He did not cancel his trips over Benghazi. -- Newt Gingrich
Dear Newt: Shut the hell up. On September 20, 1984, there was a truck-bomb explosion at the U.S. embassy annex in Aukar, Lebanon, just outside Beirut. Twenty-four people were killed.... On September 21, 1984 [Ronald Reagan] made three campaign appearances in Iowa -- at an airport rally, a farm, and a church picnic -- despite the fact that a Des Moines Register poll showed him leading Walter Mondale in the state by 23 points.-- Steve M. of No More Mister Nice Blog
Expect an Election as Disastrous as the Storms. Peter Baker of the New York Times: "Early voting, which Mr. Obama has counted on to bolster his chances of a second term, will most likely grind to a halt in some places along the Eastern Seaboard, while power failures could last much of the week.... Virginia, among the most tightly contested states, may be among the most affected.... On Election Day, the winner may not be known right away; results in one or more states may be close enough to merit recounts. In Ohio, which could decide the election, so many provisional ballots may be cast -- and by law are not counted right away -- that it may be mid-November before a winner is declared." ...
... Susan Saulny of the New York Times: "Across Florida, black churches have responded with ferocity to changes that Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican, and the Legislature made to eliminate six days of early voting this year -- including the Sunday before Election Day, which had been the traditional day to mobilize black congregations. In 2008, black voters cast early ballots at twice the rate of white voters, and turned out in significant strength on the Sunday before Election Day to help propel Mr. Obama to victory here.... Obama supporters are counting on a newly energized black base to put them over the edge despite the tighter window for early voting."
Other Stuff
Thomas Edsall has an interesting piece in the New York Times which highlights how the once-authoritarian, hierarchical Republican party is losing control to a few extremist billionaires.
Geraldo tells "Fox & Friends" to STFU on Libya conspiracy theories. Of course then he gets it wrong about Ambassador Susan Rice. That's Geraldo. What a bunch of losers. Thanks to Jeanne B. for the link:
New York Times Editors: "In 2010, a group now called American Tradition Partnership brought a lawsuit against Montana, seeking to throw out the state's anticorruption law.... In June, the Supreme Court's conservative majority obliged and handed the group a big victory by blocking the state law. Now a report by ProPublica shows that this group, which supports development of natural resources, apparently misled the Internal Revenue Service when it applied for and received tax-exempt status as a 501(c)(4) 'social welfare' group. It said it would not try to influence elections for public office, yet it has done so repeatedly."
News Ledes
NBC News: "A search was under way Monday for two crew members of the stricken ship HMS Bounty, which sank off the coast of North Carolina, the U.S. Coast Guard said. Earlier Monday, two Coast Guard helicopters rescued 14 people from life rafts after they were forced to abandon ship.... It is unclear why the boat set out to sea with Sandy bearing down." The ship was built in 1962 for the film "Mutiny on the Bounty" & has been used in several films since.
President Obama spoke from the White House's Brady Press Room re: storm preparation:
New York Times: "Hurricane Sandy grew stronger before dawn on Monday as it churned northward through the Atlantic Ocean en route to what forecasters agreed would be a devastating landfall, possibly within 100 miles of New York City. At 5 am, the huge storm was producing sustained winds of 85 miles an hour after turning due north, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was expected to veer again to the northwest later Monday morning and take dead aim at the coastline of New Jersey." ...
... The New York Times has live updates for the New York area here. The Weather Channel has links to city-by-city impact forecasts here. Sandy is predicted to hit land at Southern New Jersey, but the effects will be greatest north of there. ...
... Not surprisingly, the Weather Channel seems to be overloaded this morning, & I got a lot of linkage errors. The New York Times has state-by-state updates here. The Times has more live updates here. ...
... New York Times: "All United States stock and options markets will close on Monday as Hurricane Sandy approaches, as Wall Street braces for the storm to barrel through the heart of the country's financial center." ...
... Update: the Washington Post now has a liveblog of the storms. ...
... Update: Daily Kos publishes this list of links to sites livestreaming Sandy coverage.