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INAUGURATION 2029

Commencement ceremonies are joyous occasions, and Steve Carell made sure that was true this past weekend (mid-June) at Northwestern's commencement:

~~~ Carell's entire commencement speech was hilarious. The audio and video here isn't great, but I laughed till I cried.

CNN did a live telecast Saturday night (June 7) of the Broadway play "Good Night, and Good Luck," written by George Clooney and Grant Heslov, about legendary newsman Edward R. Murrow's effort to hold to account Sen. Joe McCarthy, "the junior senator from Wisconsin." Clooney plays Murrow. Here's Murrow himself with his famous take on McCarthy & McCarthyism, brief remarks that especially resonate today: ~~~

     ~~~ This article lists ways you still can watch the play. 

New York Times: “The New York Times Company has agreed to license its editorial content to Amazon for use in the tech giant’s artificial intelligence platforms, the company said on Thursday. The multiyear agreement 'will bring Times editorial content to a variety of Amazon customer experiences,' the news organization said in a statement. Besides news articles, the agreement encompasses material from NYT Cooking, The Times’s food and recipe site, and The Athletic, which focuses on sports. This is The Times’s first licensing arrangement with a focus on generative A.I. technology. In 2023, The Times sued OpenAI and its partner, Microsoft, for copyright infringement, accusing the tech companies of using millions of articles published by The Times to train automated chatbots without any kind of compensation. OpenAI and Microsoft have rejected those accusations.” ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: I have no idea what this means for "the Amazon customer experience." Does it mean that if I don't have a NYT subscription but do have Amazon Prime I can read NYT content? And where, exactly, would I find that content? I don't know. I don't know.

Washington Post reporters asked three AI image generators what a beautiful woman looks like. "The Post found that they steer users toward a startlingly narrow vision of attractiveness. Prompted to show a 'beautiful woman,' all three tools generated thin women, without exception.... Her body looks like Barbie — slim hips, impossible waist, round breasts.... Just 2 percent of the images showed visible signs of aging. More than a third of the images had medium skin tones. But only nine percent had dark skin tones. Asked to show 'normal women,' the tools produced images that remained overwhelmingly thin.... However bias originates, The Post’s analysis found that popular image tools struggle to render realistic images of women outside the Western ideal." ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: The reporters seem to think they are calling out the AI programs for being unrealistic. But there's a lot about the "beautiful women" images they miss. I find these omissions remarkably sexist. For one thing, the reporters seem to think AI is a magical "thing" that self-generates. It isn't. It's programmed. It's programmed by boys, many of them incels who have little or no experience or insights beyond comic books and Internet porn of how to gauge female "beauty." As a result, the AI-generated women look like cartoons; that is, a lot like an air-brushed photo of Kristi Noem: globs of every kind of dark eye makeup, Scandinavian nose, Botox lips, slathered-on skin concealer/toner/etc. makeup, long dark hair and the aforementioned impossible Barbie body shape, including huge, round plastic breasts. 

New York Times: “George Clooney’s Broadway debut, 'Good Night, and Good Luck,' has been one of the sensations of the 2024-25 theater season, breaking box office records and drawing packed houses of audiences eager to see the popular movie star in a timely drama about the importance of an independent press. Now the play will become much more widely available: CNN is planning a live broadcast of the penultimate performance, on June 7 at 7 p.m. Eastern. The performance will be preceded and followed by coverage of, and discussion about, the show and the state of journalism.”

No free man shall be seized or imprisoned, or stripped of his rights or possessions, or outlawed or exiled, or deprived of his standing in any other way, nor will we proceed with force against him, or send others to do so, except by the lawful judgment of his equals or by the law of the land. -- Magna Carta ~~~

~~~ New York Times: “Bought for $27.50 after World War II, the faint, water stained manuscript in the library of Harvard Law School had attracted relatively little attention since it arrived there in 1946. That is about to change. Two British academics, one of whom happened on the manuscript by chance, have discovered that it is an original 1300 version — not a copy, as long thought — of Magna Carta, the medieval document that helped establish some of the world’s most cherished liberties. It is one of just seven such documents from that date still in existence.... A 710-year-old version of Magna Carta was sold in 2007 for $21.3 million.... First issued in 1215, it put into writing a set of concessions won by rebellious barons from a recalcitrant King John of England — or Bad King John, as he became known in folklore. He later revoked the charter, but his son, Henry III, issued amended versions, the last one in 1225, and Henry’s son, Edward I, in turn confirmed the 1225 version in 1297 and again in 1300.”

NPR lists all of the 2025 Pulitzer Prize winners. Poynter lists the prizes awarded in journalism as well as the finalists in these categories.

 

Contact Marie

Email Marie at constantweader@gmail.com

Constant Comments

Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.

Success is not final, failure is not fatal; it is the courage to continue that counts. — Anonymous

A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolvesEdward R. Murrow

Publisher & Editor: Marie Burns

I have a Bluesky account now. The URL is https://bsky.app/profile/marie-burns.bsky.social . When Reality Chex goes down, check my Bluesky page for whatever info I am able to report on the status of Reality Chex. If you can't access the URL, I found that I could Google Bluesky and ask for Marie Burns. Google will include links to accounts for people whose names are, at least in part, Maria Burns, so you'll have to tell Google you looking only for Marie.

Monday
Aug152016

The Commentariat -- August 16, 2016

Afternoon Update:

Tweedledee to Coach Tweedledumb. Maggie Haberman & Ashley Parker of the New York Times: "Roger Ailes, the former Fox News chairman ousted last month over charges of sexual harassment, is advising Donald J. Trump as he begins to prepare for the all-important presidential debates this fall. Mr. Ailes is aiding Mr. Trump's team as it turns its attention to the first debate with Hillary Clinton ... on Sept. 26 at Hofstra University, according to four people briefed on the move.... Two of them said that Mr. Ailes's role could extend beyond the debates...." ...

     ... CW: "My top guy is a Kremlin fixer, and his second is a serial sex abuser. You've never seen a campaign like this," Trump said.

Heavy petting between Donaldavich and the Russians. Whoo. Simon Shuster (is that a real name? If the guy's middle name begins with an "N", I'll go home happy) of Time, covers the Russian take on Donald Trump's big foreign policy speech. "'Trump is not only our candidate,' [Alexander Dugin] told TIME. 'He is the savior of the USA.'...Even during the Cold War, the Kremlin often preferred to deal with more conservative American statesmen, because they were less prone to cloaking their real agenda with talk about the need to promote democracy and human rights. That prejudice persists to this day, says Gleb Pavlovsky, who served as an adviser to [Vladimir] Putin between 2000 and 2011. 'There is that old ghost in the Kremlin machine,' he says, 'that belief that more conservative, more anti-liberal candidates turn out to be more willing to negotiate.'...[Russian TV] anchors continued to shill for [Trump's] campaign while casting his rival, Hillary Clinton, as the latest figurehead of the great anti-Russian conspiracy. -- Akhilleus

Carolyn Johnson of the Washington Post: "Aetna, the nation's third largest health insurer, announced Monday night the most significant departure yet from the marketplaces set up by President Obama's signature health care law. The company, citing $430 million in losses selling insurance to individuals since January of 2014, will slash its participation from 15 states to four next year." -- CW

*****

Greg Lamothe of the Washington Post: "The Obama administration on Monday transferred 15 detainees from the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to the United Arab Emirates, the largest release under the current president, the Pentagon said." -- CW

Robert Barnes of the Washington Post: "North Carolina on Monday asked the Supreme Court to restore most of its strict voting procedures for the November elections, despite a lower court's ruling that the law intentionally discriminates against African Americans." -- CW

Gene Robinson praises the "elites," whoever they may be, and the "mainstream media" who are often the brunt of criticism (by me, too). Robinson, who is both an elite and an MSM staple, naturally goes overboard in his praise of, well, people like him. But he's right on some points, especially this one: "Ignorance is not a virtue. Knowledge is not a vice. Pointy-heads who spend years gaining expertise in a given field may make mistakes, but the remedy is to replace them with pointy-heads who have different views -- not with know-nothings who would try to navigate treacherous terrain on instinct alone. (See: Trump's policy positions on, well, anything.)"

Presidential Race

Ben Kamisar of the Hill: "The Commission on Presidential Debates has released the polls it will use to decide the participants of September's first presidential debate as third-party candidates struggle to make the stage. Candidates will need to hit an average of 15 percent in polls conducted by ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, Fox News, and NBC/Wall Street Journal.... Hillary Clinton and ... Donald Trump are virtually assured a slot each on the stage for the Sept. 26 debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. But it remains unlikely that a third-party candidate will join them...." -- CW

Matt Flegenheimer of the New York Times: "Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. warned on Monday [in Scranton, Pennsylvania] that Donald J. Trump, even as a candidate, had elevated the dangers confronting American allies and military personnel overseas. Mr. Biden said that on a trip to Kosovo and Serbia this week, he would be compelled to 'reassure' allies that the United States would honor its commitment to NATO, given Mr. Trump's comments saying he would reassess the arrangement if elected. 'Because they're worried,' Mr. Biden said, in his first campaign appearance beside Hillary Clinton." -- CW ...

He would have loved Stalin. -- Joe Biden, on Donald Trump

... Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "Biden's first campaign appearance on behalf of the Democratic nominee blended blue-collar outreach with stinging rebukes of Trump from a man who, Biden reminded the crowd, travels with his own copies of the nation's nuclear weapons codes." -- CW

Heather Caygle of Politico: "... Tim Kaine went all in during his North Carolina visit Monday night, busting out his harmonica for an impromptu jam session with a local bluegrass band. Kaine played two well-known bluegrass songs -- 'Wagon Wheel' and 'My Home's Across the Blue Ridge Mountains' -- as the crowd cheered him on at Catawba Brewery, even singing and dancing at times, while his wife, Anne Holton, clogged to the side of the stage. The impromptu concert capped off a night of Southern fun for Kaine and his wife that included a barbecue dinner with beers and banana pudding at Buxton Home Barbecue." -- CW ...

Chaffez, Goodlatte Don't Realize Horse Is Dead, Continue Sadistic Beating. Julian Hattem of the Hill: "A pair of leading House Republicans on Monday laid out detailed instructions for the Justice Department to file perjury charges against Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. More than a month after first requesting the department open a criminal probe into Clinton for alleged misstatements she made under oath, the GOP heads of the House Judiciary [Bob Goodlatte, (RTP-Va.)] and Oversight [Jason Chaffetz (RTP-Utah)] committees told a federal prosecutor specifically where they believed Clinton had lied to Congress about her email setup at the Department of State.... In addition to their letter on Monday, the Oversight Committee also released a 2.5-minute video detailing apparent inaccuracies in Clinton's testimony." CW: The video was in no way political or meant for public viewing (even though the chairmen uploaded it to YouTube), but merely because Republicans on the committees expressed uncertainty as to whether or not Obama DOJ lawyers could read.

Nick Gass of Politico: "Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker ... [said Hillary] Clinton's comment that the [violence] in Milwaukee demonstrates the 'urgent work to do to rebuild trust between police and communities' is representative of similar statements 'that are just inflaming the situation.'..." CW: Yeah, statements like what Clinton said Monday, that the U.S. should "get back to the fundamental principle: everyone should have respect for the law and be respected by the law," are so inflammatory that my eyes are burning.

Alexander Mallin of ABC News: "President Obama took a brief break from his 16-day vacation on Martha's Vineyard to attend a Democratic National Committee fundraiser on the island, where he made a strong case for Hillary Clinton as he seemed to brush off Donald Trump. 'Frankly, I'm tired of talking about her opponent,' Obama said. 'I don't have to make the case against her opponent because every time he talks, he makes the case against his own candidacy.'" -- CW

Patrick Healy of the New York Times: "Advisers to Donald J. Trump keep reassuring Republicans that there is still plenty of time to rescue his candidacy -- nearly three months to counter Hillary Clinton's vast operation in swing states and get Mr. Trump on message. The Trump team had better check the calendar. Voting actually starts in less than six weeks, on Sept. 23 in Minnesota and South Dakota, the first of some 35 states and the District of Columbia that allow people to cast ballots at polling sites or by email before Nov. 8.... If Mrs. Clinton swamps Mr. Trump in the early vote in some swing states, she can move staff and money to the most competitive places -- like Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, judging from recent polls -- while he scrambles to battle on multiple fronts." -- CW

David Sanger & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: ">Donald J. Trump on Monday invoked comparisons to the Cold War era in arguing that the United States must wage an unrelenting ideological fight if it is to defeat the Islamic State. He said he would temporarily suspend immigration from 'the most dangerous and volatile regions of the world' and judge allies solely on their participation in America's mission to root out Islamic terrorism.... The kind of relentless attacks on the Islamic State he advocates -- along with taking and holding the oil fields, which may well be a violation of international law -- would require a considerable presence by American troops or their allies, and foreign bases to launch the drones." -- CW ...

... ** Glenn Kessler & Michelle Lee of the Washington Post: "For reasons known only to Trump, he continued to repeat false statements that have been repeatedly debunked in the past. So here's a round-up of some of the more notable claims made in the speech." -- CW ...

... Bradley Klapper & Lolita Baldor of the AP also do a fact-check: "Donald Trump painted the Middle East as an oasis of stability before Hillary Clinton's tenure as secretary of state, arguing that she and President Barack Obama 'launched' the Islamic State group onto the world. In trying to outline how he would defeat the threat, Trump himself launched several other false claims on Monday." -- CW

The Tartuffian Candidate. We want to build bridges and erase divisions. We will reject bigotry and hatred and oppression in all of its many ugly forms. -- Donald Trump, in his international policy speech ...

... If Trump said this with a wry smile, then immediately broke into peels of laughter at the hilarity of his funny, that would be sarcasm. If he said it with his fake-serious expression, that would be Extreme Radical Hypocrisy. Americans suspected of ERH should be put on a watch list and most should be deported (to somewhere); DHS should bar from entry into the U.S. all people from designated ERH countries, and should test every potential visitor or immigrant for ERH syndrome before considered his application. -- Constant Weader

... ** New York Times Editors: "Far from coherent analysis of the threat of Islamic extremism and a plausible blueprint for action, the speech was a collection of confused and random thoughts that showed little understanding of the rise of the Islamic State and often conflicted with the historical record. Meanwhile, with terrorism as his central focus, Mr. Trump doubled down on the anti-refugee themes that have dominated his campaign, dressing them up as a national security issue." -- CW

The only strategic communication I heard was, 'I hate Muslims.' -- Adm. James Stavridis, Ret., former NATO Commander, on MSNBC today

... Ishaan Tharoor of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump banged the same old drum during a speech on national security in Ohio on Monday.... Going by Trump's speech, the whole [Middle East] somehow fits into [the] category [of] 'Radical Islam.'... While he's opposed to the sort of American interventions that unsettled Iraq, Trump has no qualms offering up 19th-century imperialist fantasy of occupation and resource extraction. His disdain for the sovereignty of the countries in the Middle East is compounded by a disinterest in the futures of the people living there." -- CW

CW: For a most enjoyable Trumpsky read, I suggest this column by Digby (for Salon). It includes some stuff I didn't know about, like Trump's addition of "female right wing cranks" to his policy team. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Margaret Sullivan of the Washington Post: "Based on every complaint Trump has made, he doesn't understand what journalism;s role in our democracy is supposed to be. It is not, of course, shilling for Donald Trump -- or any other candidate. Sullivan lets a few founders & former Supremes tweet their responses to Whiney Boy. -- CW ...

... ** Ha. A lot those dead white dudes knew. Paul Waldman shows how the media should be reporting on a Donald Trump rally:

Trump Draws Enormous, Fantastic Crowd, I Mean It's Incredible

FAIRFIELD, CT -- Republican nominee Donald Trump brought his extraordinary campaign to Make America Great Again to a university gymnasium here Sunday night, leaving the entire state simultaneously excited, hopeful, and dazed at the majesty and splendor of a Trump appearance, knowing that in some small way they had contributed to the salvation of our country.

     ... CW: Read on. I found journaTrump LOL funny. In a footnote, Waldman notes that "all Trump quotes in this article are real. Seriously."

Robert Schlesinger of US News is enjoying the meltdown & urges Trump not to change. -- CW

Jonathan Martin & Yamiche Alcindor of the New York Times: Donald Trump "has not just walled himself off from African-American voters where they live. He has also turned down repeated invitations to address gatherings of black leaders, ignored African-American conservatives in states he needs to win and made numerous inflammatory comments about minorities.... Some of Mr. Trump's advisers ... have called on him to broaden his campaign [to include black voters]." CW: Ha ha. That'll work. There are probably many black voters who enjoyed Trump's birther campaign & were charmed when Trump invited rally-goers to "Look at my African-American over here." And what black voter wouldn't want to hang out with these Trump rally attendees? (Also linked yesterday.) --

AP photo. Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "There's no demonstrated in-person voter fraud problem in Pennsylvania (or anywhere else, for that matter).... But it's not surprising that this is a part of Trump's campaign...: When Trump's campaign director Paul Manafort was helping to coordinate the campaign effort of a pro-Russia political party in Ukraine in 2006, he used similar tools and rhetoric. In 2004, Ukraine held a presidential election that actually was riddled with fraud and abuse.... Monitoring of the election ... found a number of problems focused on the campaign of Viktor Yanukovych, who ... was friendlier to Moscow.... The rampant fraud led to a series of protests dubbed the Orange Revolution -- and a second ballot, which [Viktor] Yushchenko won. At some point over the next two years, Yanukovych hired" Manafort's firm for an "extreme makeover." "There's no question that in Ukraine in 2006, there was cause to be concerned about election-rigging by the party in power -- Yanukovych's." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

The Manafortian Candidate. Meghan Kenealy of ABC News provides a rundown of Russia's role in and insurgence into the 2016 presidential election and the increasingly disturbing turning of Donald Trump toward the east. "When Trump was asked in December about reports that [Vladimir] Putin was cracking down on internal dissent by killing journalists and political opponents, Trump's response [was]..., 'He's running his country and at least he's a leader, unlike what he have in this country.'... And when Putin described Trump as a 'bright and talented person,' Trump released a statement ... that said in part: 'It is always so great to be so nicely complimented by a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond.'" -- Akhilleus (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

And Just Like Clockwork... Liz Peek of Fox: "... it is President Obama who has allowed the Russian strongman to become the power broker in the Middle East. It is thanks to Obama that Putin enjoys 82 percent approval ratings at home." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... Akhilleus: Hahahahahaha. The claim that Obama is responsible for Putin's skyrocketing approval ratings is never substantiated (and leave us not even venture to mention that Putin's approval rating in Russia is whatever he wants it to be). It's funny how wingers, when they go on about Putin, mention, with Obama in their sights, what a terrible person he is, but in the next sentence seem to believe, childishly, that things like opinion polls in Russia ... are all on the up and up. Peek, who is a terrible writer, by the way, and a worse thinker, bases her stance that Obama is an awful president on the fact that he hasn't started a war with Russia yet. The weenie!

Under those eight years before Obama came along, we didn't have any successful radical Islamic terrorist attack in the United States. They all started when Clinton and Obama got into office. -- Rudy Giuliani, introducing Donald Trump & Mike Pence in Ohio

Not only did Giuliani forgot how to form a Giuliani sentence -- "A noun, a verb and 9/11," but he also forgot the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks themselves, so deep is his hatred for Obama (and black people) & Clinton (and women). -- Constant Weader

Once you understand that according to the right wing calendar, George W. Bush's presidency began on the day after 9/11 and ended the day before Obama's financial crash, this (and a whole lot more) makes perfect sense. -- Greg Sargent ...

... Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "Giuliani ... actually talked about [9/11] shortly before the 'eight years' comment.... Giuliani's comments are actually pretty diametrically opposed to what Trump has said previously in this campaign. While Giuliani was basically giving the previous GOP administration kudos for preventing further terrorist attacks and contrasting that with the Obama administration's record, Trump all but blamed Bush for 9/11 during the primary." -- CW ...

... Jeet Heer of the New Republic: "Setting aside the possibility that Obama hatred has obliterated his memory of the worst terrorist attack in American history, this remark reflects the strange exemption that George W. Bush is granted over 9/11 happening under his watch. According to Republicans like Giuliani, Bush can never be held accountable for 9/11, while everything that happens under Obama's watch, from ISIS to Syrian civil war, is the president's responsibility. This sort of partisan logic might make sense to die-hard Republicans, but it comes across as unhinged to everyone else." -- CW ...

... CW: Let's assume, as several commentators have pointed out, even as they scratched their heads at the futility of such self-defeating strategy, that the Trump campaign's goal is not to expand the candidate's base in order to, you know, win the election, but to send more Purina to the Pavlovian base. In that regard, Giuliani's fractured history lesson makes sense. As Steve M. points out, "the vast majority of the party gives W [a] mulligan" [for the 9/11 attacks].

CW: Ever a stickler for the fairness doctrine I, having embedded a clip of the Democrats' veep candidate playing the harmonica, I searched for a clip featuring mike pence's musical talents. No luck, but Jen Edds fills in with "The Mike Pence Song":

Aaron Blake: "Donald Trump's national spokeswoman [Katrina Pierson] offered a pretty stunning accusation during an appearance on Fox Business Network on Monday morning. She alleged that members of the political media have 'literally beat Trump supporters into submission.'... This is merely the latest wild accusation and strange claim made by Pierson this campaign.... CNN ... media analyst Brian Stelter on Sunday pressed top Trump aide Jason Miller repeatedly on whether the campaign would continue dispatching Pierson to do TV appearances.... Stelter said, "... it seems to me there's a pattern of misinformation. It makes me worried about where her sources of information are coming from.' Miller said Stelter was making 'a ridiculous comment.'" Blake runs down some of Pierson's crazier claims. ...

     ... CW: Maybe Pierson was thinking of that video where Maggie Haberman & Karen Tumulty pummel a couple of guys wearing Trump T-shirts till the battered & bloody Trumpsters empty their pockets, crying, "Give it to Hillary! Give it all to the Democrat candidates!" In case you haven't seen the video (screenshot posted above left), it's in the same vault with the one where A-rab-looking New Jerseyites cheer the collapse of the Twin Towers.

Annals of Journalism, Ctd. Intrepid reporter Akhilleus has obtained a leaked copy of the first (and only) policy meeting of Donald Trump's economic team of the Best Steves. This could bring Reality Chex our first Pulitzer:

... CW: Following up on Akhilleus's scoop.... While the Steves may have influenced Trump's economic "policy" (a/k/a that which he reads from a teleprompter + China is killing us), here is incontrovertible evidence that Donaldo himself has powerfully influenced the Steves' position on women's rights:

Congressional Races

James Downie of the Washington Post: "Despite the Democrats having the inside track for the executive branch and the upper chamber of Congress, there seems little chance of a Democratic House. Why? The easy answer is that the Democratic Party -- and especially the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- has failed to take advantage of its opportunity.... Clinton and the Democrats will no doubt celebrate on Election Day. But the subsequent elections will be the true tests. Even if the Democrats retake the Senate, the GOP House will surely block every major piece of legislation the new administration seeks, and then blame Clinton for the gridlock." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

Craig McCoy, et al., of Philly.com: "Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane was convicted Monday of perjury, obstruction and other crimes after squandering her once bright political future on an illegal vendetta against an enemy. Four years after Kane's election in a landslide as the first Democrat and first woman elected attorney general, a jury of six men and six women found her guilty of all charges: two counts of perjury and seven misdemeanor counts of abusing the powers of her office. Montgomery County District Attorney Kevin Steele persuaded the jurors that Kane orchestrated the illegal leak of secret grand jury documents to plant a June 2014 story critical of her nemesis, former state prosecutor Frank Fina. Kane then lied about her actions under oath, the jury found.... [Kane's attorney] said no decision had been made about whether Kane would resign from office. Gov. [Tom] Wolf [D], who had called for Kane to resign after her arrest, said Monday night that she should now do so immediately." -- CW

Rick Rojas, et al., of the New York Times: "Two days after an imam and his assistant were gunned down after afternoon prayers in Queens, city officials sought to reassure members of the Muslim community in New York on Monday, saying that a 'strong person of interest' was in police custody. At a news conference on Monday evening, Mayor Bill de Blasio acknowledged the fear that had spread among members of the city's Bangladeshi community over concerns that the men, who were dressed in religious garb at the time of the attack, had been targeted because of their faith." -- CW ...

     ... New Lede: "Two days after an imam and his assistant were gunned down after afternoon prayers in Queens, the police said late Monday that a man they had in custody had been charged in the killings. The man, Oscar Morel of Brooklyn, 35, who was taken into custody late Sunday after the police connected him to a hit and run that occurred about a mile away from the fatal attack, faces two counts of second-degree murder and two counts of criminal possession of a weapon, the police said." -- CW

Hannah Schwartz, et al., of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "Shaken by two nights of violent unrest in the Sherman Park neighborhood, Milwaukee authorities imposed a 10 p.m. citywide curfew for teens Monday while faith leaders took to the streets to pray and talk with residents. The combination of law, order and faith was an attempt to break a cycle of violence that erupted following Saturday's shooting death of an armed suspect by a Milwaukee police officer. Although it was too early to declare if the peace would fully hold, at 10:30 p.m. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and Milwaukee Police Chief Edward A. Flynn appeared at a news conference and expressed cautious optimism." -- CW

Way Beyond

Paul Schemm of the Washington Post: "Russian heavy bombers took off from an Iranian air base and struck rebel targets in Syria in a dramatic sign of the growing military relations between the two countries that are the main backers of the Syrian government." CW: Since Donald Trump has demonstrated his expertise on the Middle East, we need to hear some of the many words from his very good brain on the Russia-Iran-Syria alliance. If he's not sure how great this is, he could ask Putin's his campaign chairman Paul Manafort.

News Ledes

New York Times: "John McLaughlin, a former Roman Catholic priest who became an aide to Richard M. Nixon in the White House and parlayed his fierce defense of the president into a television career as host of 'The McLaughlin Group,' the long-running Sunday morning program of combative political punditry, died on Tuesday at his home in Washington. He was 89." CW: As I remember McLaughlin, he was always 89.

New York Times: "As the receding floodwaters continued to expose the magnitude of the disaster the state has been enduring, Louisiana officials said Tuesday that at least 11 people had died, and that about 30,000 people had been rescued. Gov. John Bel Edwards acknowledged that the state did not know how many people were missing, but he said that nearly 8,100 people had slept in shelters on Monday night and that some 40,000 homes had been 'impacted to varying degrees.'" -- CW ...

... AP: "Authorities late Monday said a body had been pulled from floodwaters in Baton Rouge, raising the toll to seven dead.... The slow-moving, low-pressure system that dumped more than 20 inches of rain on some parts of Louisiana was crawling into Texas, but the National Weather Service warned the danger of new flooding remained high due to the sheer volume of water flowing toward the Gulf of Mexico. Rivers and creeks were still dangerously bloated in areas south of Baton Rouge...." -- CW ...

... The Weather Channel has more here. -- CW

Sunday
Aug142016

The Commentariat -- August 15, 2016

Afternoon Update:

CW: For a most enjoyable Trumpsky read, I suggest this column by Digby (for Salon). It includes some stuff I didn't know about, like Trump's addition of "female right wing cranks" to his policy team.

Jonathan Martin & Yamiche Alcindor of the New York Times: Donald Trump "has not just walled himself off from African-American voters where they live. He has also turned down repeated invitations to address gatherings of black leaders, ignored African-American conservatives in states he needs to win and made numerous inflammatory comments about minorities.... Some of Mr. Trump's advisers ... have called on him to broaden his campaign [to include black voters]." CW: Ha ha. That'll work. There are probably many black voters who enjoyed Trump's birther campaign & were charmed when Trump invited rally-goers to "Look at my African-American over here." And what black voter wouldn't want to hang out with these Trump rally attendees? --

AP photo. Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "There's no demonstrated in-person voter fraud problem in Pennsylvania (or anywhere else, for that matter).... But it's not surprising that this is a part of Trump's campaign...: When Trump's campaign director Paul Manafort was helping to coordinate the campaign effort of a pro-Russia political party in Ukraine in 2006, he used similar tools and rhetoric. In 2004, Ukraine held a presidential election that actually was riddled with fraud and abuse.... Monitoring of the election ... found a number of problems focused on the campaign of Viktor Yanukovych, who ... was friendlier to Moscow.... The rampant fraud led to a series of protests dubbed the Orange Revolution -- and a second ballot, which [Viktor] Yushchenko won. At some point over the next two years, Yanukovych hired" Manafort's firm for an "extreme makeover." "There's no question that in Ukraine in 2006, there was cause to be concerned about election-rigging by the party in power -- Yanukovych's." -- CW

The Manafortian Candidate. Meghan Kenealy of ABC News provides a rundown of Russia's role in and insurgence into the 2016 presidential election and the increasingly disturbing turning of Donald Trump toward the east. Here's a taste: "When Trump was asked in December about reports that [Vladimir] Putin was cracking down on internal dissent by killing journalists and political opponents, Trump's response seemed complimentary of Putin. 'He's running his country and at least he's a leader, unlike what he have in this country,' Trump said. And when Putin described Trump as a 'bright and talented person,' Trump released a statement through his spokesman, Hope Hicks, that said in part: 'It is always so great to be so nicely complimented by a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond.'" -- Akhilleus

And Just Like Clockwork...who steps up to claim that Donald Trump is the All American boy, it's that horrible nee-groe who's [Vladimir] Putin's best buddy? Why, Liz Peek, of Fox, of course: "...it is President Obama who has allowed the Russian strongman to become the power broker in the Middle East. It is thanks to Obama that Putin enjoys 82 percent approval ratings at home."

Akhilleus: Hahahahahaha. The claim that Obama is responsible for Putin's skyrocketing approval ratings is never substantiated, but what can you expect (and leave us not even venture to mention that Putin's approval rating in Russia is whatever he wants it to be) from Fox? It's funny how wingers, when they go on about Putin, mention, with Obama in their sights, what a terrible person he is, but in the next sentence seem to believe, childishly, that things like opinion polls in Russia, over which Putin has complete control, are all on the up and up. Peek, who is a terrible writer by the way, and a worse thinker, bases her stance that Obama is an awful president on the fact that he hasn't started a war with Russia yet. The weenie! How do these people have jobs? Oh, yes. Roger Ailes. That's how. Wonder how ol' Rog is doing now that he's not blackmailing women for sex? Life sucks and then you die. Maybe Douthat will lend Rog one of his blow-up dolls.

*****

Presidential Race

Jake Tapper & Tal Kopan of CNN: "Members of Congress will soon receive notes from Hillary Clinton's interview with the FBI over her private email server and they could be sent as early as Monday, according to sources. The FBI does not have a complete transcript of the interview, FBI Director James Comey told Congress in long testimony earlier this summer. She was not under oath, he added. But members of Congress will have access to notes taken during the interview." CW: The big question is, how many minutes will it Congressional Republicans & staffers to leak portions of the notes to the press? A secondary question: how inaccurately can they recount the content in the notes? And third, how will the media, in not revealing their sources, report the leaks? As fact? ...

     ... CW: MEANWHILE, for some unbeknownst reason, Republicans in Congress have no interest in investigating the underworld doings of the campaign chairman for their presidential candidate, doings that clearly have influenced the candidate and their party's platform.

Rebecca Savransky of the Hill: "Hillary Clinton's campaign is attacking Donald Trump on Russia ahead of his foreign policy speech set for Monday, calling for him to disclose any connections that exist between Russia and aides to the Republican nominee. 'On the eve of what the Trump campaign has billed as a major foreign policy speech, we have learned of more troubling connections between Donald Trump's team and pro-Kremlin elements in Ukraine,' campaign manager Robby Mook said in a statement late Sunday night." -- CW

Paul Krugman: "Mrs. Clinton's economic vision ... [is] very much a center-left vision: incremental but fairly large increases in high-income tax rates, further tightening of financial regulation, further strengthening of the social safety net. It's also a vision notable for its lack of outlandish assumptions. Unlike just about everyone on the Republican side, she isn't justifying her proposals with claims that they would cause a radical quickening of the U.S. economy. As the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center put it, she's 'a politician who would pay for what she promises.'" -- CW


The Talented Mr. Trump. Laurie Kellman & Julie Pace of the AP: "Any country that wants to work with the U.S. to defeat 'radical Islamic terrorism' will be a U.S. ally, [Donald Trump] is expected to say [in a speech today].... Trump is also expected to propose creating a new, ideological test for admission to the country that would assess a candidate's stances on issues like religious freedom, gender equality and gay rights. Through questionnaires, searching social media, interviewing friends and family or other means, applicants would be vetted to see whether they support American values like tolerance and pluralism." CW: So if one fell swoop, Trump will provide a rationale/excuse for allying with Russia & a reason he himself should not be allowed into the U.S., what with his views on "religious freedom, gender equality, gay rights ... tolerance and pluralism," not to mention the very concept of imposing "ideological purity" on immigrants.

Rebecca Morin of Politico: "In a series of tweets Sunday, Donald Trump launched a new tirade against the media, calling it 'disgusting' and blaming it for his drop in polls. His latest tweet storm first targeted The New York Times, which published an article Saturday about the GOP nominee's allegedly failing campaign, but quickly expanded as an indictment of the media in general." CW: Trump cannot lose unless a vast left-wing conspiracy "cheats" him & the "Second Amendment people." ...

If the disgusting and corrupt media covered me honestly and didn't put false meaning into the words I say, I would be beating Hillary by 20%. -- Whiney Boy, Sunday, in a tweet ...

... Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "Trump's problem is not that the 'disgusting and corrupt media' is putting false meaning into things he says. The problem is that Trump's only messenger is himself, and that he says things that seem to objective observers inside and outside the media as questionable. Trump is mad at how his speeches are covered by the media because he can't figure out why the strategy isn't working the way it did during the primary season. He can put out any message he wants on TV or in mail or wherever he wants.... But for some incomprehensible reason, he won't." -- CW ...

... Steve M. "Trump's confusion is understandable.... The mainstream media tells us over and over again that both parties are exactly the same with regard to anger (and everything else, for that matter).... And the conservative media's message is that ... the only reason anyone isn't a conservative Republican is brainwashing (by the 'liberal media,' by academia, by the 'Democrat Party')." CW: So see? It is the media's fault! ...

It is not 'freedom of the press' when newspapers and other are allowed to say and write whatever they want even if it is completely false! -- Donald Trump, in a tweet ...

... Jim Fallows of the Atlantic explains freedom of the press, or as Trump would have it, "freedom of the press," to Donald Trump. Yo, Donaldo, it's why you get to repeatedly say, "Obama is the founder of ISIS," even though it's "completely false!" & nobody locked you up.

... Rebecca Savransky: "CNN's Jake Tapper on Sunday got into a heated exchange with Donald Trump's campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, after Manafort continued to criticize the media for not focusing on the Republican presidential nominee's message." -- CW ...

... Secrets of the Black Ledger. Andrew Kramer, et al., of the New York Times: Goverment officials in Kiev, Ukraine, have found the name of Paul Manafort, "as well as companies he sought business with, as they try to untangle a corrupt network they say was used to loot Ukrainian assets and influence elections during the administration of Mr. Manafort's main client, former President Viktor F. Yanukovych. Handwritten ledgers show $12.7 million in undisclosed cash payments designated for Mr. Manafort from Mr. Yanukovych's pro-Russian political party from 2007 to 2012, according to Ukraine's newly formed National Anti-Corruption Bureau. Investigators assert that the disbursements were part of an illegal off-the-books system whose recipients also included election officials. In addition, criminal prosecutors are investigating a group of offshore shell companies that helped members of Mr. Yanukovych's inner circle finance their lavish lifestyles.... Among the hundreds of murky transactions these companies engaged in was an $18 million deal to sell Ukrainian cable television assets to a partnership put together by Mr. Manafort and a Russian oligarch, Oleg Deripaska, a close ally of President Vladimir V. Putin." ...

     ... CW: That is, the campaign chairman and would-be Svengali for the Republican presidential nominee received millions of dollars arranging corrupt deals for himself & prominent pro-Russian politicians & businessmen, all against the interests of Ukraine & pro-Western Ukrainian leaders. Oh, and it's alleged Manafort was laundering money for his Kremlin cronies. In short, the GOP nominee's top man has given aid & comfort to the enemy & made off with a bundle doing it. We knew, or thought we knew, much of this before, but it remains astonishing, particularly in light of Trump's many pro-Russia, anti-U.S. remarks. To put all this in perspective, Crooked Hillary was careless with her e-mails. ...

... Speaking of Hillary ... I'm Not Rubber, But You're Glue. CW: The Times story is surely the reason for this pre-emptive projection. Rebecca Savransky: "A senior adviser to ... Donald Trump on Sunday said ... Hillary Clinton and her husband have 'real connections' to Russia. 'There's concrete evidence of the coziness between the Clintons and Russia," Boris Epshteyn said on Fox News. He called stories of the GOP nominee's links to Russia a 'ridiculous narrative by the left.' 'The Clintons are the ones that have real connections to Russia,' he said." ...

... MEANWHILE. John Aravois of AmericaBlog: "Donald Trump's ousted former campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, just tweeted a blockbuster new New York Times story that's highly critical of Donald Trump's current campaign manager, Paul Manafort. And the Internet is abuzz.... This is fascinating stuff, as it's indicative of just bad things have gotten in Trump-land.... Everyone on Twitter, conservatives included, are taking this as a sign of Corey knifing Manafort in the back at a particularly precarious time for the campaign.... [The Trump campaign's ties to Russia] only got creepier this morning when Manafort told CNN's Jake Tapper that a NATO base in Turkey was recently attacked by terrorists. Manafort is mistaken. The story is a fake. Its source? Russian counterintelligence.... Big trouble for moose and squirrel." -- CW ...

... Update. Lewandowski, Leashed. Rebecca Savransky: "... Corey Lewandowski on Monday pushed back against a recent report drawing a connection between ... Paul Manafort and the Ukraine.... 'The media is now focusing on a private person who had a private business model, which no one says is anything illegal about what he did and as a matter of fact, he's saying he didn't receive the money,' Lewandowski said Monday on CNN after tweeting a link to the report Sunday night. The CNN contributor said those close to ... Hillary Clinton get a pass from same news organizations reporting on Manafort." CW: Maybe Trump fired Lewandowski because neither of them could understand what the other was saying. Their shared ability to garble their native language is a tribute to Sarah Palin.

... MEANWHILE. Politico: "... Paul Manafort slammed the New York Times Monday on morning after the newspaper published a story reporting that secret ledgers in Ukraine show more than $12 million in cash earmarked for him.... 'The suggestion that I accepted cash payments is unfounded, silly and nonsensical.'" -- CW ...

... David Atkins in the Washington Monthly: "How much does Trump and his team need to do before we start asking serious questions about whether they're a Manchurian Candidate campaign actively working on behalf of a foreign nation? Trump's campaign manager is deep in with Putin cronies, the Putin regime is very likely behind the hacking on Democratic organizations to benefit Trump, his campaign worked to soften anti-Putin and anti-Russia language in the GOP platform, and his finances and investments are enmeshed with Russian cronies -- which may be a key reason why he refuses to release his tax returns." -- CW ...

... James Hohmann of the Washington Post has a rundown of responses to the Times' Manafort story, couched of course in can-Manafort-survive hype. Also, Hohmann provides reminders of how Donald Trump, under Manafort's direction, became the Siberian candidate. -- CW

... CW: MEANWHILE, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Reince Priebus & most other GOP leaders are standing behind the mop-headed Putin puppet whose "policy goal" is probably a couple of Trump Towers in Moscow & a Russian beauty pageant.

Rebecca Savransky: "Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) on Sunday said there is a discussion going on within Donald Trump's campaign regarding the ban put on some reporters and media outlets from attending the Republican presidential nominee's events.... 'I do believe in the public's right to know,' he said Sunday." -- CW

** Ryan Lizza of the New Yorker: "If Donald Trump loses the Presidential election, this [past] week may be remembered as the point in the campaign when his defeat became obvious and inevitable. The number of controversies, reckless statements, and outright lies from Trump this week was dizzying.... Unlike in the Republican primaries, when Trump's serial untruths and shocking statements had little effect on his political standing, the damage in the general election has been swift and severe." CW: Read on. Lizza revisits the massive Gallup study of Trump voters, linked here last week, & its implications for what will - and will not -- address those Trump voters' needs. ...

     ... CW: The federal government can do little or nothing to satisfy aggrieved middle-class people who "feel" they "are being treated unfairly" because "those people" are now enjoying somewhat better socio-economic conditions. Yesterday, contributor Ken W. wrote that he had "long pondered how the revolutionary sixties and early seventies I knew could have turned into the Age of Reagan." For many, the "revolutionary '60s & early '70s" were about changing the social fabric, but perhaps for most, they also were a revolt against accepting responsibilities their parents had shouldered without question. Sure, one of those responsibilities was serving -- and getting killed or maimed -- in a stupid war. But for people like Bill Clinton & Donald Trump (and me) the overriding objective was personal: help yourself (or a family member) avoid the draft. It's hardly surprising then that the Me Generation reared a generation of selfish Reaganites. Today, the bright-line difference between a (rational) Bernie backer & a Trump backer is that the former wants to improve the system for everybody; the latter wants to improve it for himself.

The Would-Be Wedding Crasher. Caitlin Yilek of the Hill: "Donald Trump tried to invite himself to Chelsea Clinton's wedding in 2010, according to a new book on former President Bill Clinton" by Joe Conason. Trump's effort failed. -- CW

Jessie Hellmann: "The Independence Party of Minnesota has selected Evan McMullin as its 2016 presidential nominee, his campaign said in a statement. McMullin, a little-known former CIA officer and House GOP official, announced his long-shot White House bid last Monday as an alternative to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump." -- CW

Other News & Views

Chico Harlan of the Washington Post: "As Central Americans surged across the U.S. border two years ago, the Obama administration skipped the standard public bidding process and agreed to a deal that offered generous terms to Corrections Corporation of America, the nation's largest prison company, to build a massive detention facility for women and children seeking asylum. The four-year, $1 billion contract -- details of which have not been previously disclosed -- has been a boon for CCA, which, in an unusual arrangement, gets the money regardless of how many people are detained at the facility. Critics say the government's policy has been expensive but ineffective." CW: This sounds like a deal Chris Christie would make with some of his cronies.

Tim Starks of Politico: "House Democratic leaders on Saturday urged members to upgrade their cyber security as staffers were flooded with vulgar, malicious emails and texts after a massive online dump of their contact information late Friday -- the latest fallout of a series of election-season cyberattacks primarily targeting the Democratic Party. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, ... wrote in a note to colleagues that she was changing her phone number and advised colleagues to do the same. An email from the Democratic Caucus told members and staffers whom to contact to do so." -- CW

Annals of "Journalism," Ha Ha Ha. Paul Farhi of the Washington Post: "Ever since former Fox host Gretchen Carlson filed a sexual harassment suit July 6 against the network's co-founder and chairman, Roger Ailes, Fox has been tight-lipped about telling its viewers about the allegations, which have turned the network upside down. Fox mentioned the lawsuit and Ailes’s subsequent resignation July 21, but that's about all it has done since the news broke." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

Niraj Chokshi & Christopher Mele of the New York Times: "Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin activated the Wisconsin National Guard on Sunday to assist local law enforcement following a night of violence in Milwaukee that began hours after a police officer fatally shot a fleeing armed man there." -- CW ...

... John Diedrich, et al., of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "The Milwaukee police officer who fatally shot an armed suspect Saturday is black, Chief Edward Flynn confirmed Sunday." -- CW ...

Ashley Luthern, et al., of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "The man shot and killed by a Milwaukee police officer Saturday was charged last year in a shooting and then charged again, with trying to intimidate a witness in that same shooting.... The man shot by police was 23-year-old Sylville Smith, police sources and Smith's family told the Journal Sentinel. Smith was charged with first-degree recklessly endangering safety and with witness intimidation, but the charges were dismissed ... even though the prosecutors had recorded jail calls in which Smith asked his girlfriend to pressure the victim to recant, according to court records.... The victim did file a statement recanting his identification of Smith as the shooter and wrote he was unsure who shot at him...." -- CW

Way Beyond

Hasani Gittens of NBC News: "U.S. Olympic swimmers Ryan Lochte, Gunnar Bentz, Jack Conger and Jimmy Feigen were robbed at gunpoint while in Rio de Janeiro overnight Saturday.... Lochte swam in two events at the Rio Games, winning gold in the 4x200-meter freestyle relay." -- CW

News Lede

Weather Channel: "The federal government declared a major disaster in Louisiana Sunday after torrential rain inundated the state killing at least four people, flooding thousands of homes and prompting thousands of water rescues.... Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said Sunday that more than 20,000 people had been rescued by all participating agencies and volunteers since the flooding outbreak began." -- CW

Saturday
Aug132016

The Commentariat -- August 14, 2016

Presidential Race

Maureen Dowd argues that Hillary Clinton is the perfect Republican presidential nominee. Dowd bases her case on Clinton's foreign policy & ties to Wall Street. -- CW (Also linked yesterday.)

Jessie Hellman of the Hill: "Former U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez[, who served in the Bush II administration,] became one of several Republicans last week to diverge from the party and back the Democratic nominee for president. 'I think... Hillary Clinton, is the best for the country. I'm not thinking about it as a Republican. I'm thinking about it as a U.S. citizen,' Gutierrez said...." -- CW

Nikita Vladimirov of the Hill: "Former governor of New York and state Democratic Party Chairman David Paterson said ... Hillary Clinton could have handled the FBI and Justice Department's decision on her private email server with more humility.... '"When the attorney general absolved Hillary Clinton and said that there were no criminal penalties that she would be held accountable for, she goes and basically takes a victory lap with President Obama,' Paterson said.... 'What if Hillary Clinton had a press conference and said, "You know something, I am really happy that there are no criminal charges being levied against me, but I recognize I did a lot of things wrong, I used poor judgment, and I want the voters to know that I have learned a lesson from this situation and I will never be in violation this way again,'" he said. 'I think that would have been a much better message than what went on that day." CW: He's right. Hillary Clinton's vanity & arrogance have made her one of the most tone-deaf Democrats ever to hit the national stage. (Joe Lieberman.)

You know, when I started reading articles about meetings on the tarmac between the spouse and head of DOJ, or how Hillary forgot yet another slate of work-related emails, or how the FBI actually recommended an investigation into the Clinton Global Initiative and DOJ said no, or the curious connections between Ukrainian money and Russian money and the Clinton Global Initiative or the so many things the Clintons have gotten away with without any consequence ... I think we're living in a series of 'House of Cards.' -- Carly Fiorina, Demon Shepherdess & candidate for RNC chair

Harper Neidig of the Hill: "Vice presidential candidate Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said on Saturday that Donald Trump's efforts to avoid paying taxes show that he is not committed to supporting the military. Pointing to reports that Trump's returns from the '70s and '80s show that he paid no income tax, Kaine said the real estate mogul is not doing his part in funding the armed services -- and floated that as a reason why the GOP nominee is keeping his more recent returns secret." -- CW

Even Richard Nixon released his tax returns to the public. -- Tim Kaine, in a tweet

Uh, Not Exactly, Tim. Lauren Carroll of PolitiFact: "Nixon did not release his tax returns in 1968 or 1972. The IRS audited Nixon in 1973, when questions bubbled up about a fishy charitable donation.... (This happened around the same time as the Watergate investigation but was a separate issue.) Nixon said one of his most well-known lines amid this scandal: 'People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook. Well, I am not a crook.' Nixon eventually released a slew of financial information to the public in December 1973, including the previous four years of tax returns, to try to quell the criticism.... However, [a] congressional investigation ultimately found that Nixon owed $476,431 (approximately $2.3 million in today's dollars) in unpaid taxes and accrued interest. Oops."


Katie Glueck
of Politico: "Donald Trump's poll numbers are faltering in deep-red states from South Carolina to Georgia, his organization is a mess in perhaps the most important county in Ohio, and he admits that he has a 'tremendous problem' in Utah, which hasn't gone Democratic since 1964. And yet, on Saturday, Trump is hosting a rally in Fairfield County, Conn., a county that Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama by 11 percentage points, in a state that hasn't voted Republican since 1988. It's a move that is flummoxing and infuriating Republicans who believe Trump should be spending time and resources in winnable states...." CW: Nothing to be flummoxed about; I'm sure this is somehow a money-maker for Trump.

Paul Bedard of the (right-wing) Washington Examiner: "Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988. Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz's 'Time for Change' model done for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics 'Crystal Ball' shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton. He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.... However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can't be trusted." CW: GOTV.

Edward Helmore of the Guardian: "Donald Trump's presidential campaign started recruiting 'election observer' volunteers late Friday, after the Republican nominee claimed the only way he would lose Pennsylvania is 'if cheating goes on' in 'certain areas'. The application form on the campaign website links directly to a page soliciting campaign donations with the text: 'I AM YOUR VOICE.' Trump repeated claims at a Friday night rally, without evidence, that he fears a 'rigged' election perpetrated in part by voter fraud. No Republican candidate for president has won Pennsylvania since 1988, and in 2012 the state’s then Republican government, in court over a voter ID law, admitted in legal papers that its lawyers knew of no instances of in-person voter fraud in the state. The law was struck down in 2014." CW: I'm sure Trump's "observers" will all be very polite, civic-minded people. ...

... Rick Hasen: "With Trump's dangerous and irresponsible hyperventilating about voter fraud and cheating in Pennsylvania potentially costing him the election, it is probably no surprise ... that Trump is seeking 'election observers' to stop 'Crooked Hillary' from 'rigging this election.' However, there's a longstanding consent decree that bars the RNC from engaging in such activities." When the RNC tried to get the consent decree lifted in 2013, The Supreme Court upheld the decree but added a December 1, 2017 expiration date. "If [Trump's] activity violates the consent decree, the DNC can ask for it to be extended for up to another 8 years." -- CW ...

One of the things that this can do is get rogue people riled up. Trump sets the fuse and lets someone else do the explosion. It strikes me as a very dangerous thing to be suggesting, because it does lend itself to the possibility of violence at the polls. It just strikes me as exactly the kind of dirty tricks why the RNC consent decree was put in place in the first place. -- Rick Hasen, to Philip Bump ...

... Update. Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump's campaign nationalized the effort on Saturday morning. Now eager Trump backers can go to Trump's website and sign up to be 'a Trump Election Observer.'... Trump's pointed reference to how voters in 'certain sections of the state' [of Pennsylvania] were likely to cheat was almost certainly a reference to a debunked claim that the vote was rigged in predominantly black parts of Philadelphia.... 'I think the question is: What would he be organizing the election observers to do?' Hasen asked. 'He is gathering names based on the idea that these observers are going to stop "Crooked Hillary" -- his words -- from "rigging" -- his words -- the election. That to me does not sound like observation or GOTV [get out the vote].'" -- CW

Gray Lady Outlines Why Donald Trump Must Never Be President. Alexander Burns & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: On June 20, Donald Trump's top advisors, including his children, staged an intervention to urge him to "end his freestyle digressions and insults," and & agreed to rein it in. "Nearly two months later, the effort to save Mr. Trump from himself has plainly failed. He has repeatedly signaled to his advisers and allies his willingness to change and adapt, but has grown only more volatile and prone to provocation since then.... In private, Mr. Trump's mood is often sullen and erratic, his associates say.... He is routinely preoccupied with perceived slights.... On Tuesday ... his brain trust ... again urged Mr. Trump to adjust his tone and comportment.... Mr. Trump ... responded receptively." Then he went out & suggested "Second Amendment people" off Hillary Clinton & a few liberal judges. (Also linked yesterday.) ...

... CW: I've been watching a British series about an autistic child with a well-meaning but dysfunctional family. The little boy responds to coaching by acting out the way Donald Trump does. ...

... Harper Neidig: "Donald Trump on Saturday pushed back against [the Times report linked above].... 'I am truly enjoying myself while running for president,' Trump wrote [in a tweet]. 'The people of our country are amazing - great numbers on November 8th!'" "The failing @nytimes has become a newspaper of fiction. Their stories about me always quote non-existent unnamed sources. Very dishonest!" Trump also tweeted. -- CW

... Kurt Eichenwald of Newsweek reviews some of the whoppers Donald Trump has told in sworn depositions. "He never tries to make his lies or delusions or fantasies make sense. He just spews to explain away the inexplicable.... Trump ... [now blames] the media for applying the rules of grammar and sentence structure to him...." CW: Oddly, Eichenwald frames his column in the form of a letter to Paul Ryan, urging Ryan to dump Trump, as if Ryan himself had the personal integrity & love of country to do the right thing. (If he does, he's been hiding it for a long time.) Thanks to Akhilleus for the link. (Also linked yesterday.)

... Dan Balz of the Washington Post: "The unraveling of Donald Trump’s candidacy continues apace, a long and steady decline since the high point three months ago. If he were deliberately trying to avoid winning the election, he could hardly be doing a better job. The hole he has dug for himself is wide and deep.... Rather than looking at weaknesses in his support and trying to find ways to win a few percentage points among particular groups of voters, his words and behavior do the opposite." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Eli Stokols & Ken Vogel of Politico: "Publicly, Republican Party officials continue to stand by Donald Trump. Privately, at the highest levels, party leaders have started talking about cutting off support to Trump in October and redirecting cash to saving endangered congressional majorities." -- CW

Nicholas Kristof: "Trump’s harsh rhetoric tears away the veneer of civility and betrays our national motto of 'e pluribus unum.' He has unleashed a beast and fed its hunger, and long after this campaign is over we will be struggling to corral it again.... The Southern Poverty Law Center ... issued a report documenting how Trump's venom has poisoned schools across the country.... [A] teacher reported that a fifth grader told a Muslim student 'that he was supporting Donald Trump because he was going to kill all of the Muslims if he became president!'" CW: The SPLC, which tracks hate groups, has pretty much identified a major political party presidential candidate as his very own hate group. That is extraordinary. ...

... Here's the SPLC report titled, "The Trump Effect -- the impact of the presidential campaign on our nation's schools." "Our report found that the campaign is producing an alarming level of fear and anxiety among children of color and inflaming racial and ethnic tensions in the classroom. Many students worry about being deported." -- CW

Trump's "Remix" of the GOP's Southern Stragegy: Robert Jones in the Atlantic: "One glaring, underreported clue about the method behind the post-primary Trump madness is his selection of Paul Manafort as chair of his national campaign.... Along with credentials earned from working with top GOP politicians (and a raft of international dictators from the Philippines to Somalia), Manafort also brought decades of experience as an overseer of the Southern Strategy.... It was Manafort who arranged for Ronald Reagan to kick off his post-convention presidential campaign at the Neshoba County Fair just outside of Philadelphia, Mississippi, where three young civil rights workers were brutally murdered in 1964." -- CW ...

... How Kindly Grandpas Became Hateful Lunatics. Bob Cesca, in Salon, highlights how Trump is successfully exploiting the "right rage" that right-wing media have been stoking for decades: "Since at least the Clinton administration, white men have been slowly indoctrinated and, in too many cases, brainwashed by conservative media and its rather loose grip on reality." -- CW

Trump Magazine Survivor Tells All. (And is lucky to be alive to tell it.) Carey Purcell in Politico Magazine: "I had been at Trump magazine for only four months when my first paycheck bounced. We'd heard rumors of the company's financial troubles, but I had no idea how bad it really was until my landlord called me one afternoon to tell me that my rent check hadn't cleared. I logged into my online banking account and saw, to my amazement, that the magazine I worked for -- the one with the billionaire's name on the cover -- had stiffed me.... It felt like I was living in an Onion article: 'Luxury Lifestyle Magazine Can't Pay Its Own Employees.'... By [the] time [the magazine folded], I had been diagnosed with cancer and -- thanks to Trump -- lost my health coverage." -- CW

Daria Sito-Sucic of Reuters: "U.S. actor and producer Robert De Niro said on Saturday that ... Donald Trump should not run for president because he was 'totally nuts'. De Niro made the comments to a Sarajevo audience as he presented a digital version of Martin Scorsese's film 'Taxi Driver', in which he starred, to mark its 40th anniversary. '... he shouldn't even be where he is, so God help us," De Niro said to wide applause in the Sarajevo National Theater.... 'But I think now they are really starting to push back, the media ... finally they are starting to say: Come on Donald, this is ridiculous, this is nuts, this is insane,' De Niro said." -- CW

Rebecca Morin of Politico: "Mike Pence says he is filing his tax returns and will make them available to the public, even as his running mate Donald Trump refuses to do so. 'When my forms are filed and when my tax returns are released it's going to be a quick read,' the Republican vice presidential nominee said Saturday...." -- CW

Tarini Parti & Rosie Gray of BuzzFeed highlight the "jarring" contrasts between Donald Trump's & mike pence's campaign rallies. "At Pence events, the difference between the two isn't lost on voters. Several contended that the governor 'balanced out Trump' and his sometimes 'rash' statements. One of them, Pittsburgh attorney Tony Kovalchick, said Pence 'brings a lot of experience ... and gravitas to the ticket -- like Dick Cheney did.'" CW: Okay, I'll buy that Dick Cheney part.

Fractured History, Ctd. Rebecca Morin: "Donald Trump spokeswoman Katrina Pierson on Saturday morning said the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan was 'Obama's war.'... [Pierson said,] '... remember we weren't even in Afghanistan by this time [2007]. Barack Obama went into Afghanistan creating another problem.... Later in the segment, [CNN host Victor] Blackwell fact-checked Pierson's statement, saying that troops invaded Afghanistan in 2001 under President George W. Bush.... Earlier this month, Pierson said it was the policies of Obama and Clinton that killed Army Capt. Humayun Khan. Khan was killed in 2004 during the George W. Bush presidency." CW: Pierson also criticized Hillary Clinton: "It was Hillary Clinton and her incidents in Libya, which was also a reckless decision to create that vacuum." She did not, however, note that in 2011, Trump was strongly in favor of the Libyan intervention, perhaps because he's denied it during this campaign season. It's ridiculous for CNN to continue to invite Pierson to appear on air. -- CW

Other News & Views

Binyamin Appelbaum & Michael Shear of the New York Times: "In nearly eight years in office, President Obama has sought to reshape the nation with a sweeping assertion of executive authority and a canon of regulations.... Once a presidential candidate with deep misgivings about executive power, Mr. Obama will leave the White House as one of the most prolific authors of major regulations in presidential history. Blocked for most of his presidency by Congress, Mr. Obama has sought to act however he could. In the process he created the kind of government neither he nor the Republicans wanted -- one that depended on bureaucratic bulldozing rather than legislative transparency." -- CW

Michael Birnbaum of the Washington Post: "The hacking of Democratic Party computer systems, widely thought by U.S. intelligence officials to be the work of the Russian government, may be giving Washington a new taste of unconventional Kremlin tactics that have long been employed to influence politics in neighboring European countries. Russia has tried hard in recent years to tug Europe to its side, bankrolling the continent's extremist political parties, working to fuel a backlash against migrants and using its vast energy resources as a cudgel against its neighbors." -- CW ...

... Cory Bennett of Politico: "Hackers linked to Russian intelligence services may have targeted some prominent Republican lawmakers, in addition to their well-publicized spying on Democrats, based on research into leaked emails published on a little-noticed website.... The site [DC Leaks] also includes a small 'portfolio' of roughly 300 emails from Republican targets, including purported emails from the campaign staffs for Sen. John McCain, a 2008 presidential hopeful, and Lindsey Graham, who briefly ran for president during this cycle. Both lawmakers are stalwart critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Also included in the dump are emails from 2012 GOP presidential candidate Michele Bachmann and party officials in several states." -- CW

Joe Davidson of the Washington Post: "Private prisons -- unsafe and insecure. That's the picture emerging from a Justice Department Office of the Inspector General's report that adds to a growing effort to take the profit out of penitentiaries. The report's central conclusion: 'We found that, in most key areas, contract prisons incurred more safety and security incidents per capita than comparable BOP (Bureau of Prisons) institutions and that the BOP needs to improve how it monitors contract prisons in several areas.'... No remedial action will remedy the basic conflict the profit motive provides when corporations are involved in decisions that directly affect the incarceration of individuals. -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

Aaron Mak, et al., of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "A standoff between police and an angry crowd turned violent Saturday night in the hours after a Milwaukee police officer shot and killed an armed suspect during a foot chase on the city's north side. After an hours-long confrontation with officers, police reported at 10:15 p.m. that a gas station at N. Sherman Blvd. and W. Burleigh St. was set on fire. Police said firefighters could not for a time get close to the blaze because of gunshots. Later, fires were started at businesses -- including a BMO Harris Bank branch, a beauty supply company and O'Reilly Auto Parts stores -- near N. 35th and W. Burleigh streets, a grim and emphatic Mayor Tom Barrett said. He spoke at a midnight news conference at the District 3 police station at N. 49th St. and W. Lisbon Ave. He and Common Council President Ashanti Hamilton pleaded with the public for calm. Barrett promised a strong police presence in coming days." -- CW

Ashley Southall & Eli Rosenberg of the New York Times: "A gunman shot and killed two people near a mosque in Queens on Saturday afternoon, according to the police. A congregant of the mosque, the Al-Furqan Jame Masjid, said its imam was among the victims.... The police said they were still investigating whether the shooting, which was initially reported as a robbery, was a hate crime. The police have not released the names of the victims." -- CW

Way Beyond

Michael Weissenstein of the AP: "Fidel Castro thanked Cubans for their well-wishes on his 90th birthday on Saturday and criticized President Barack Obama in a lengthy letter published in state media." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

News Lede

ABC News: "When Simone Manuel touched the wall to clinch a gold medal Saturday night, it was a moment 120 years in the making. The U.S. women's 4x100-meter medley relay team of Kathleen Baker, Lilly King, Dana Vollmer and Manuel -- winners at the Rio Games on Saturday night -- is being recognized by the U.S. Olympic Committee as delivering the nation's 1,000th gold medal in Summer Olympics history. By their count, anyway. Keeping count of the gold total is not as exact a science as one might think." -- CW