The Commentariat -- January 23, 2016

Gloria has an excellent comment today noting how the Avatar of the Party of Personal Responsibility & Family Values rejects its phony catchphrases in practice. One can find other excellent examples, even in current news -- like Ted Cruz's forgetting -- purposefully or carelessly -- to obtain new health insurance coverage for his family. Or Carly Fiorina's corraling four-year-olds into an anti-abortion rally (without obtaining parental approval, natch). Would you up & tell a stranger's preschooler about abortion? No, I didn't think so. It's bizarre.

Barry Meier of the New York Times: "... newly disclosed documents suggest that Iranian officials knew far more about [Robert] Levinson[, a CIA consultant who disappeared in Iran in 2007]. In late 2011, a top Iranian diplomat acknowledged that his country was holding the American and would release him if the United States helped delay an assessment criticizing Iran's nuclear activities, the documents say."

Reuters: "Twelve US marines missing after two military helicopters collided last week off Hawaii's Oahu island have been listed as deceased, the military said on Thursday. The coast guard called off the search for the missing marines on Tuesday after five days of search and rescue efforts across some 40,000 square nautical miles of ocean, along with shorelines."

Michael Cieply of the New York Times: "Confronting a fierce protest over a second straight year of all-white Oscar acting nominations, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences said on Friday that it would make radical changes to its voting requirements, recruiting process and governing structure, with an aim toward increasing the diversity of its membership.The changes were approved at an unusual special meeting of the group's 51-member governing board Thursday night." ...

... The Los Angeles Times story, by Rebecca Keegan, is here.

Brian Stelter of CNN: "In a statement Friday morning, [Washington Post reporter Jason] Rezaian said he and his family members were heading home to the states. They were traveling on a private jet with [WashPo/Amazon.com owner Jeff] Bezos, according to a person at the Post who asked not to be named."

Eliza Collins of Politico: "Bowe Bergdahl's defense lawyer on Friday said his client's right to a fair trial had been 'irreparably compromised' by Donald Trump, and said he might call the billionaire presidential candidate to the witness stand..... He said that Trump, who often calls Bergdahl a 'no-good traitor' during campaign events and has called for his execution, was allowed to say what he wanted under the First Amendment but that he could face a defamation case in the future."

Presidential Race

CW: It's telling that in none of the debates organized by either party has a reporter from Politifact or FactCheck.org been invited to participate in the moderators' panel. Of course it would be impolite to tell Hillary Clinton her pants were on fire, but it would be okay to flash a graphic, which would require minimal artwork, of Donald Trump's hair in flames. The public deserves more Candy Crowley "He did in fact,sir" moments.

Mark Landler, et al., of the New York Times: President "Obama has said he will not endorse a candidate during the primaries; his advisers are careful not to root publicly for anyone. But the White House is working with Mrs. Clinton's campaign in ways large and small. Their two staffs consult on issues ranging from the campaign's use of Mr. Obama's image in advertisements to the positions she takes on his policy priorities, like the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, which she pushed as secretary of state and then came out against as a candidate." ...

... Philip Rucker & Abby Phillip of the Washington Post: "With another Iowa presidential contest at risk of slipping out of Hillary Clinton's reach, the Democratic Party is launching a massive effort this weekend to boost her candidacy. A crowd of well-known entertainment and political figures, including Sen. Timothy M. Kaine (Va.), a former party chairman, and Tony Goldwyn, star of the hit series 'Scandal,' is jetting to all corners of this state to help Clinton erase her enthusiasm deficit to Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.). And major progressive groups such as the Planned Parenthood Action Fund and the National Education Association are firing up their political operations, including door-knocking teams and phone banks, to give her an outside push." ...

... Reuters: "The US State Department asked a judge on Friday for a one-month extension to finish publicly releasing thousands of emails sent by Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of state, in part because a winter storm closed government offices. The department said in a federal court filing it needed until 29 February after realizing this week that it had 'overlooked' emails amounting to 7,254 printed pages that it should have already shared with other agencies for them to review for sensitive information.... Whether Judge Rudolph Contreras will grant the extension is unclear...."

Kasie Hunt of MSNBC: "Planned Parenthood, the Human Rights Campaign and other progressive groups that have endorsed Hillary Clinton are not part of the political establishment, Sen. Bernie Sanders said Thursday, walking back comments he made earlier this week on MSNBC."

He Who Does Not Show Up. Ben Schreckinger of Politico: "As eight Republican candidates prepared to make their case at Saturday's First in the Nation Presidential Town Hall in Nashua, New Hampshire, much of the jockeying behind the scenes focused on the one who won't be there. With 17 days until the state's primary, Donald Trump is skipping the state's final pre-primary cattle call to campaign in Iowa. And the old guard of New Hampshire Republican politics is openly rooting for Trump's lead in the state to collapse." ...

... The Twittersphere of the Donald. Eliza Collins: "Donald Trump on Friday retweeted a message from a Twitter user with the handle @WhiteGenocideTM. The tweet features a photoshopped picture of Jeb Bush holding a 'vote for Trump' sign outside of Trump Tower. The user's profile has a black banner photo with red lettering that says 'Get the f--- out of my country.' The name attached to the profile is Donald Trumpovitz and the location is 'Jewmerica,' with a link to a page promoting a pro-Adolf Hitler documentary." ...

... (U.K.) Press Association: "US presidential hopeful Donald Trump is making it more difficult to confront and defeat extremists by making the 'fundamental mistake' of trying to blame all Muslims for the ideology of a minority, [British Prime Minister] David Cameron has said." ...

... The Monster Has Orange Hair. Jeet Heer of the New Republic: "... when National Review launched its special issue 'Against Trump' [Thursday] night, it was keeping to a venerable tradition of policing the right.... The special issue ... seems designed to be its definitive statement, a historical milestone on par with William F. Buckley's denunciation of the John Birch Society in 1965 or the magazine's rejection of Pat Buchanan's anti-Semitism in 1991. Yet ... too much time is spent trying to prove that Trump is not a real conservative, while ignoring the fact that the racist nationalism he is espousing has its origins on the right.... In truth, the relationship between National Review and Donald Trump is like that of Victor Frankenstein and his monster.... Without Frankenstein, there is no monster. And without a conservative movement that fostered and indulged white identity politics, there is no Donald Trump." ...

... Steve M. does an excellent job of tearing apart just one point the NR editors made: "... if you have no familiarity with the relevant details and the levers of power, and no clear principles to guide you, you will, like most tenderfeet, get rolled." Steve finds a number of instances where NR writers have applauded amateur politicians for being "outsiders" or CEOs who "knew how to meet a payroll." Echoing Heer, Steve says to NR, "You told us that America could be saved by CEOs who know squat about politics. You said political experience doesn't help, and is actually a liability. So reap what you've sown." ...

... ** More on how the National Review writers & other conservatives created Donald Trump. "Conservatives fear him not because he is an ignorant demagogue, but because he's not their ignorant demagogue.... Movement conservatism rejects the conclusions of wide swaths of economists, social scientists, the entire field of climate science ... of course it is liable to attract anti-intellectual candidates. A second problem is that conservative doctrine is unpopular with the public as well. The majority may often support generalized anti-government sentiment, but it does not follow those generalities through to their specific implications." So conservative candidates engage in doublespeak, where, for instance, they say they'll repeal ObamaCare & replace it with "their own vague alternative health-care plans.... The difference is that, when Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio promise to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something terrific, conservatives can trust that they're lying." ...

... The Trump Gazette. Jack Shafer of Politico on how Donald Trump resembles an 1890s tabloid.

CW: What I Said Yesterday. Dana Milbank: "That soft flapping sound you hear is the Grand Old Party waving the flag of surrender to Trump. Party elites -- what's left of the now-derided 'establishment' -- are acquiescing to the once inconceivable: that a xenophobic and bigoted showman is now the face of the Republican Party and of American conservatism." ...

... Gail Collins: "Under normal conditions, if a party was confronted with a candidate who had never held any public office, whose political activism consisted mainly of trying to prove Barack Obama was born in Africa, and whose platform consisted of whatever stuff was getting good crowd response at the last rally, everybody would race to get behind the alternative. So if Trump does win this thing, he'll owe it all to the terribleness of Ted Cruz." ...

CW: What I Said Yesterday. But Worse. Liar, Liar, Liar.

Blue Cross Blue Shield cancelled all their individual (health care) policies in the state of Texas, effective Dec. 31. -- Ted Cruz, January 21, in a New Hampshire appearance

Actually, the company continues to sell coverage all over Texas, according to Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas. The company also says individual customers like Cruz were notified [more than 5] months before 2016 changes -- including an end to individual PPO plans -- kicked in. So, Cruz was both incorrect about Blue Cross' offerings in Texas and evidently mischaracterized how his own coverage came to lapse. -- Gardner Selby of Politifact

Michael Hiltzik of the Los Angeles Times: "Cruz's problem has nothing to do with Obamacare and everything to do with his own sloth.... Ted also claimed his premiums -- and the voters' -- would go up 50 percent, "but average rate increases in the individual market in Texas aren't anywhere near 50%.... In New Hampshire, the biggest plans had increases in the single digits." But wait, there's more: "A campaign spokesman tol[d] the Wall Street Journal that the Cruz family had been automatically enrolled by BlueCross BlueShield in one of its HMOs..., as of Jan. 1, when their former PPO plan expired. The insurance carrier did this for all 2015 PPO enrollees who took no action before Dec. 31.... The insurance carrier informed all affected customers of the change."

... Kyle Mantyla of Right Wing Watch: "Ted Cruz says he is "grateful" to have the endorsement of Mike Bickle, a "prophet" who believes Oprah Winfrey is a forerunner to the antichrist. "Bickle is the founder of the International House of Prayer, a controversial missionary organization in Kansas City, Missouri, that some critics have labeled a cult and which is best known for engaging in nonstop 24-hour-a-day prayer in preparation for the End Times and for its anti-gay activism in Uganda. Bickle is just the latest in a long list of radical Religious Right activists who have publicly endorsed Cruz for president, many of whom Cruz's campaign has eagerly embraced.... Back in 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain was forced to reject the endorsement of John Hagee after it was revealed that Hagee had made comments similar to Bickle's about God having used Hitler as a 'hunter' to force the Jews return to Israel." ...

Young Ted (right) with friend David Panton. Even though it appears that Cruz is doing his "I have a black friend" thing, Panton really is Cruz's friend, & he isn't just Cruz's only black friend; he's probably Cruz's only friend.... Rosalind Helderman & Tom Hamburger of the Washington Post report on the friendship between Ted Cruz & his college roommate David Panton, the son of prominent Jamaicans.

Beyond the Beltway

Mark Guarino of the Washington Post: "If a lead-laced water supply wasn't enough to deal with, many residents of Flint, Mich., face a new crisis: Replacing the water heaters, pipes and even the service lines to their homes that may have been damaged by the city's water. And for now, it's unclear whether they will receive any help in covering those costs."

Another Elected Official Goes to Jail. Christopher Goffard of the Los Angeles Times: "Former Santa Ana City Councilman Carlos Bustamante [R] was sentenced to a year in jail Friday on charges that included attempted sexual battery and grand theft. Bustamante, who also had served as an executive manager for Orange County, pleaded guilty in December to attempted sexual battery, stalking, assault and false imprisonment. Prosecutors had accused Bustamante of assaulting seven female county employees between 2003 and 2011 while working at the Orange County Public Works Department."

Jessica Lee of the Seattle Times: "Authorities have in custody a man who they believe accidentally shot and injured a woman in a Renton[, Washington,] movie theater Thursday night, Renton police Cmdr. David Liebman said. Investigators believe the 29-year-old man was intoxicated when he entered a showing of the film '13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi' at Regal Cinemas The Landing 14, 900 N. 10th Place, with a loaded gun before 8:15 p.m., he said." ...

     ... CW: A drunk with a gun -- sounds like your typical "13 Hours" fan.

Way Beyond

Joshua Partlow of the Washington Post: "The rapid spread of the Zika virus has prompted Latin American governments to urge women not to get pregnant for up to two years, an extraordinary precaution aimed at avoiding birth defects believed to be linked to the mosquito-borne illness." CW: That should upset all the anti-contraception freaks.

News Ledes

The Washington Post's liveblog of theEast Coast storm, continued from yesterday, is here. Access is free. ...

... The New York Times has a map, which it updates hourly, of actual recorded snowfall along the East Coast & inland. It's a slow-loader. The Times' liveblog is here. ...

... At 1:15 pm ET, the WashPo blog reports these highlights:

• Snow totals have mainly reached the 14-20 inch range with some 20+ inch totals north and west of the city; snow expected to continue through late tonight.
• Thundersnow has been reported. Extreme snowfall rates up to 2-3 inches per hour are possible into the early afternoon north and west of D.C., easing a bit thereafter.
• A lull or lighter snow is possible at times in the District and points south and east.
• Wind gusts of 40-50 mph cause whiteout conditions today with blowing and drifting snow. Winds are strongest east of the District toward the bay.
• Total snow accumulations of 16 to 30 inches are expected. Highest north and west of District, lowest southeast.

... Washington Post Update: "The storm pummeling the East Coast with snow and blustery winds continued to wreak havoc on air travel, canceling thousands of flights throughout the weekend." ...

... New York Times: "Making up for a remarkably mild winter, the first major snowstorm of the season barreled up the East Coast on Saturday, with accumulations of three inches an hour bringing a long stretch of the country from Tennessee to New York to a near-standstill.... [New York] Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo declared a state of emergency and urged residents to stay home." ...

     ... New Lede: "... a blizzard propelled by tropical-storm-force winds that brought much of the Northeast to a standstill and left more than two feet of snow in New York City, where Mayor Bill de Blasio called it 'very likely one of the worst snowstorms in our history.' Officials imposed a travel ban in and around the city to keep drivers off streets."

The Commentariat -- January 22, 2016

Afternoon Update:

Richard Perez-Pena of the New York Times: On MSNBC, "The governor of Michigan said on Friday that race was not a factor in the state's response to reports of lead in the drinking water in Flint, a poor, majority-black city where the supply has been contaminated for more than a year, even as state officials insisted that it was safe to drink." CW: Well, okay then, that's settled.

*****

Gregory Korte of USA Today: "President Obama promised more help for America's cities Thursday, telling a gathering of mayors at the White House that they're on the front lines of providing services to citizens. Obama promised $80 million in water infrastructure grants to Michigan, the day after returning from a trip to Detroit in which he lamented the water crisis in Flint":

... Lenny Bernstein & Mark Berman of the Washington Post: "The Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday ordered the city of Flint and the state of Michigan to treat, test and report on the beleaguered municipality's water supply, in an emergency directive issued because their responses to a lead crisis in the water there 'have been inadequate to protect public health.' EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy also accepted the resignation of Susan Hedman, the agency's top official for the region that includes Flint, where 100,000 people are unable to drink the water that comes into their homes because of elevated levels of lead. President Obama also sharply criticized Michigan officials for failing to respond more quickly to the crisis, saying that 'our children should not have to be worried about the water they're drinking in American cities.'" ...

... Charles Pierce: "We should never forget that the voters of Michigan overturned the expanded emergency-manager law in 2012, only to have a new Republican majority in the state legislature pass another bill slightly adjusting the parameters of the law that was defeated. Would you like a banana with your republic?"

Sara Wire of the Los Angeles Times: "First Lady Michelle Obama urged the nation's mayors Thursday to redouble efforts to ease homelessness among military veterans in a speech that both highlighted progress and underscored the magnitude of the problem. Obama, speaking at the winter meeting of the U.S. Conference of Mayors in Washington, said it was 'an absolute outrage' that veterans were sleeping on the nation's streets. 'It is a horrifying stain on our nation, particularly when you think about all that these men and women have done for our country,' she said. The first lady lauded the city of Los Angeles for finding homes for more than 5,500 of the 7,000 veterans estimated to be on the streets as of January 2015, and for developing mental health and job placement services to keep them housed."

Coral Davenport of the New York Times: "In a significant victory for President Obama, a federal appeals panel [of the D.C. District] on Thursday rejected an effort by 27 states and dozens of corporations and industry groups to block the administration's signature regulation on emissions from coal-fired power plants while a lawsuit moves through the courts.... By rejecting the petition on Thursday, a three-judge panel of the court required states to move forward with plans to shut down polluting coal plants and build new wind and solar sources.... The Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit set June 2 to hear arguments in that case, although it is widely expected to be ultimately decided by the Supreme Court, most likely in 2017."

Andrew Roth of the Washington Post: "In their first interview since [Washington Post reporter Jason] Rezaian left Iran, his wife [Yeganeh Salehi] and his mother, Mary, described the tortuous end to a saga that began with the journalist's arrest on July 22, 2014, and eventually involved top-level negotiations between Tehran and Washington that produced a deal to free him and three other jailed Iranian Americans."

Robert Bateman of Esquire: What did British Judge Robert Owen mean when he concluded, "Taking full account of all the evidence and analysis available to me, I find that the FSB operation to kill [Alexander] Litvinenko was probably approved by Mr Patrushev and also by President Putin"? Bateman translation: "In Britain, 'probably' is nearly the opposite of 'inconclusive.' This statement says the equivalent of, 'You definitely did this, you pissant Putin, but I am too refined to say "definitely" because I want to leave wiggle-room for my country.'"

Presidential Race

... ** Paul Krugman: "Mr. Sanders is the heir to candidate Obama, but Mrs. Clinton is the heir to President Obama. (In fact, the health reform we got was basically her proposal, not his.)" Read the whole column. It's a reality chek that should be required reading for every liberal who says, "I'll never vote for Hillary Clinton." And it is another reminder of how multi-talented our current president is.

Frank Rich weighs in on Sanders v. Clinton, Palin + Trump, & the all-white Oscars & Chris Rock.

Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: "The Republican National Committee has ended a debate partnership with National Review after the venerable conservative magazine devoted its new issue to a 'symposium' of reasons why voters should reject Donald Trump's presidential campaign.... RNC spokesman Sean Spicer Fowler ... added in a comment to Buzzfeed's Rosie Gray that 'a debate moderator can't have a predisposition.' That leaves CNN, Salem Radio, and Telemundo as the co-sponsors of the planned February 25 forum in Houston." CW: Also, too this is the Republican party's official act of contrition & capitulation to its New Leader. ...

... Erik Wemple of the Washington Post: The RNC's "Houston debate is now an embarrassment of indecision and thought control. Recall that the RNC earlier this month announced that the original broadcast partner, NBC, had been bounced from the event because of the behavior of moderators from CNBC in a widely panned October debate.... RNC's decision surfaces a deep-set ignorance about the role of National Review."

It's like being shot or poisoned. What does it really matter? -- Sen. Lindsey Graham, on the choice between Trump & Cruz ...

... Ted, Worse Than Trump. Robert Costa, et al., of the Washington Post: "The Republican establishment -- once seen as the force that would destroy Donald Trump's outsider candidacy -- is now learning to live with it, with some elected and unelected leaders saying they see an upside to Trump as the nominee. In the past few days, Trump has received unlikely public praise from GOP luminaries who said they would prefer him to his main rival, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.... But other Republicans still believe it is impossible to choose between the two, because they believe that either would be a disaster as the nominee -- and that others can eventually rise." ...

... Manu Raju, now of CNN, quotes a number of Republican senators badmouthing Ted. It seems they don't enjoy his fingering them as sleazy operatives in a "corrupt cartel." ...

... Erica Werner of the AP: "Cruz has become such a pariah that one of his colleagues, Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina, told supporters at a campaign fundraiser for his own re-election that he would vote for liberal Sen. Bernie Sanders for president before Cruz, according to one person who attended the event. Burr did not appear to be joking, said the person, who demanded anonymity to discuss the private gathering. ...

     ... Jim Morrill of the Charlotte Observer: "U.S. Sen. Richard Burr on Thursday strongly denied a news report that said he had told people he would vote for Democrat Bernie Sanders over Republican Ted Cruz. Burr's aides asked The Associated Press for a retraction. An AP spokesman said the news agency was sticking by its story." ...

... So why have the GOP party elite picked Trump over Cruz? Digby says it's because they "see [Trump] as a sort of simple clown they'll be able to dominate once he's in office and is dependent upon their superior knowledge and experience. What planet are they on? Do they really look at Trump and see someone who plays well with others? Someone who isn't a stone cold narcissist and megalomaniac who is clueless about everything important to the job he is seeking? Do they think this is all an act?... They hate Ted Cruz for being rude and self-serving more than they are concerned that Trump is promising to turn this country into an authoritarian police state.... Trump has expressed admiration for only two leaders during this campaign: Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un. It's highly unlikely if Trump becomes the most powerful man in the world he'll be humbly asking the House GOP Weenie Caucus to hold his hand and tell him what to do."

... Nick Gass of Politico: "Ted Cruz revealed on Thursday that he is not currently covered by any health insurance.... 'I'll tell you, you know who one of those millions of Americans is who's lost their health care because of Obamacare? That would be me,' Cruz told a Manchester, New Hampshire, audience. 'I don't have health care right now.... So our health care got canceled, we got a notice in the mail, Blue Cross Blue Shield was leaving the market.... I hope by the end of the month we'll have a policy for our family. But our premiums -- we just got a quote, our premiums are going up 50 percent.'... Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas did stop selling some of its individual policies for 2016 but not all of them.... Blue Cross HMO plans ... are still available in Texas on HealthCare.gov, and other insurance companies in the state offer a variety of network types. Also, while premiums did rise across the country this year, they did not spike 50 percent." ...

... CW: Also, too, when an insurance company notifies a customer it will not renew his coverage, it doesn't just cut him off that day. Under the ACA (& most state laws), the insurer must give the policyholder at least 30 days' notice of cancellation. "If your plan is cancelled, you have several options, including a Special Enrollment Period." So what Ted is saying is that he & the wife were too busy promoting Ted to make sure the family had health insurance. Which Is Obama's Fault.

** Nate Silver: "I'm now much less skeptical of Trump's chances of becoming the nominee." His reasons why are interesting (and readable), especially the part about the community dump on Cruz. ...

Teresa Tritch of the New York Times: "Mr. Trump has been making wild-eyed claims about unemployment since at least last June, when Politifact rated his pronouncements as 'False.' But he keeps it up because, obviously, his goal is not to inform. It's to inflame. The facts would not stoke the raw emotions that power Mr. Trump's candidacy, so he uses lies. What he loses in credibility among detractors he gains in popularity among supporters." ...

Okay, one more: "Speaking in Tongues":

Manuel Roig-Franzia & Scott Higman of the Washington Post: When he was 18, Marco Rubio "was arrested ... for being in a crime-plagued public park after closing time, according to police records and an interview with a friend who was cited with Rubio that night. The previously unreported misdemeanor ... eventually was dismissed.... Rubio, who has no history of criminal convictions, has never discussed his arrest publicly, and he did not mention it in his 2012 memoir, 'An American Son.'... 'When he was 18 years old, he violated a municipal code for drinking beer in a park after hours,' [campaign stragegist Todd] Harris said. 'He was never taken into custody, never hired a lawyer and never appeared in court. Why The Washington Post thinks that is a story is beyond me.'" ...

... CW: Harris is mostly right. This is akin to the hundreds of stories and thousands of posts & comments about young Barack Obama's smoking pot. Very few people think this kind of thing is a disqualifier for high (no pun intended) office. There's no particular reason for the MSM not to write it up, though. BTW, I think teenagers' arrest & misdemeanor records should be automatically expunged after a number of years.

Hey, Remember Her? She's Still at It. Adam Gabbatt of the Guardian: "Carly Fiorina has been accused of 'ambushing' a group of children, after she ushered pre-schoolers, who were on a field trip to a botanical garden, into an anti-abortion rally ... at the Greater Des Moines botanical garden. Entering the rally, before a crowd of about 60 people, she directed around 15 young children towards a makeshift stage.... The children's parents had not given Fiorina permission to have their children sit with her -- in front of a huge banner bearing the image of an unborn foetus -- while she talked about harvesting organs from aborted babies.... During the rally an anti-abortion activist, carrying a scale model of four-month-old foetus, joined Fiorina at the front of the room." CW: If those kids had been, say, embryos, Carly would have protected them. But, hey, they're little kids, living kids, so why not push them around & maybe scare the crap out of them?

Congressional Race

Reid Wilson of the Morning Consult: "Former State Department official Liz Cheney is likely to launch her bid for Congress within days, several Republicans in Washington and Wyoming tell us, and unlike her short-lived Senate bid two years ago, this time she'll almost certainly begin as the favorite. Cheney will run for an open seat being vacated by retiring GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis, the only woman in the House Freedom Caucus. It's also the seat once held by Cheney's father, former Vice President (and House Minority Whip) Dick Cheney." ...

     ... Via Paul Waldman, who says, "And Liz Cheney, who practically makes her dad Dick look like Daniel Berrigan (ask your parents), is probably going to run for Congress from Wyoming, a state she has visited numerous times."

Beyond the Beltway

Alan Blinder of the New York Times: "A white police officer was indicted [in Decatur, Georgia] Thursday on six counts, including felony murder, in the fatal shooting last year of an unarmed black man who was naked and described as acting in an erratic manner. The indictment of Officer Robert Olsen of the DeKalb County Police Department came about two weeks after the district attorney said he would ask a grand jury to pursue criminal charges in the death of Anthony Hill, a 27-year-old Air Force veteran."

Sean Murphy of the AP: "A former police officer convicted of raping and sexually victimizing women while on his beat in a low-income Oklahoma City neighborhood was ordered Thursday to spend the rest of his life in prison. Jurors had recommended that Daniel Holtzclaw be sentenced to 263 years in prison for preying on women in 2013 and 2014. District Judge Timothy Henderson agreed, said Holtzclaw will serve the terms consecutively and denied his request for an appeal bond.... Defense attorney Scott Adams said Holtzclaw will appeal."

Mike McPhate of the New York Times: "An associate professor at Kent State University in Ohio is under investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation over possible involvement with the Islamic State. The inquiry came to light as federal agents arrived at the campus this week to interview students and professors about Julio Pino, an educator in the history department known for making incendiary remarks on Israel.... In 2011, he shouted 'death to Israel' during a lecture at the university by a former Israeli diplomat." Pino is tenured & will continue to teach. CW: So hate speech is protected at Kent State.

News Ledes

The Washington Post is liveblogging developments related to the winter storm that has hit the Mid-Atlantic region. The Post's stories about the storm are free to nonsubscribers.

(U.K) Independent: "At least 45 refugees travelling from Turkey have drowned after two overcrowded boats sunk off the coast of Greece. The bodies of 34 people, including 11 children, were found near the small Greek island of Kalolimnos where a wooden sailing boat went down. Another eight bodies, including six children and two women, have been recovered after another boat carrying 49 people sank near the island of Farmakonisi, reports BBC."

Guardian: "The number of dead in a school shooting in northern Canada was revised down to four from five, the Canadian police said late Friday, but gave no new details on either the victims or the one male in custody."

Washington Post: "A University of Virginia student honored as an 'intellectual risk-taker' has been arrested in North Korea, its state-run media said Friday, accusing the American of an unspecified 'hostile act' against the state."

Washington Post: "With an epic blizzard virtually certain to pummel the Washington area this weekend, Metro threw up a white flag Thursday, announcing that it will shut down the nation's second-busiest subway and all bus service Saturday and Sunday in a move that apparently is unprecedented in the transit system's 40-year history."

New York Times: "At least 14 civilians were killed and dozens were wounded after Islamist militants struck a popular beachside restaurant Thursday night in Somalia's capital that had become a symbol of the city's struggling renaissance...."

The Commentariat -- January 21, 2016

Everything Is Obama's Fault.

CW: I'm putting the link in the graf below at the top of today's Commentariat &, barring some really big news, leaving it here. I don't want anyone to miss the pathology of today's Republican party, exemplified & exaggerated in Sarah Palin's attempt to blame President Obama for her son's behavior. I do think it possible that Track Palin suffers from PTSD; he served in Iraq in 2008. (See this WashPo report by Phillip Bump, who notes that several factors related to antisocial behavior apply to Track.) But the determinant here sounds an awful lot like Palin Traumatic Stress Disorder. The President and Michelle Obama have worked tirelessly to help and to honor our military veterans. The gall of Sarah Palin to place responsibility for her son's drunken rampage on President Obama is unparalleled. If you wonder why I seldom link to stories about Sarah Palin, even when they are quasi-newsworthy, look no further. ...

... Obama Made My Son Punch His Girlfriend in the Face. -- Sarah Palin. Nick Gass & Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "Sarah Palin addressed the 'elephant in the room' at a Tulsa, Oklahoma, rally for Donald Trump on Wednesday, linking her son Track's recent arrest on domestic violence charges to President Barack Obama's neglect of veterans." ...

... "Sarah Palin's Circle of Victimhood." Peter Beinart of the Atlantic: "In endorsing Donald Trump, Sarah Palin faced a challenge. How does a woman who has built her brand on hating cultural elites endorse a billionaire, Manhattan TV star? Her answer: by turning Trump into a victim.... The same people who screwed Palin, and who screw American troops and workers, the people who 'stomp our neck and tell us to chill,' are now savaging Donald Trump as well. But he alone, perhaps because he is a billionaire and from their elite world, may be able to stand up to them and strike a blow on behalf of the little people." See also Digby's post, linked under Presidential Race.

*****

Karoun Demirjian of the Washington Post: "Senate Democrats' plan to force Republicans to take a politically uncomfortable vote on Donald Trump's proposal to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the country fell apart Wednesday. Republicans leaders declined to strike a deal and hold a vote on the issue, leading Democrats to then filibuster legislation that would effectively prevent the resettlement of Syrian and Iraqi refugees in the United States.... The Wednesday vote to begin considering the refugee bill failed on a 55 to 43 tally, with 60 votes needed to advance the legislation. The bill, which the House passed last month, would suspend the admission of Syrian and Iraqi refugees until the Obama administration can certify that no one coming to the United States poses a security threat."

Lydia Wheeler of the Hill: "The Supreme Court on Wednesday handed a defeat to businesses, ruling that they cannot stop a class-action lawsuit by offering to pay the full amount sought by the original plaintiff. In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court sided against advertising firm Campbell Ewald that was trying to avoid a class-action lawsuit. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in the majority opinion said a settlement offer that isn't unaccepted [CW Note: s/b "accepted"] does end a legal challenge, and that there is no immunity shield for federal contractors that violate both federal law and the government's explicit instructions. An unaccepted settlement offer or offer of judgment does not moot a plaintiff's case,' Ginsburg wrote.... Chief Justice John Roberts filed a dissenting opinion on which Justices Antonin Scalia and Samuel Alito joined...." ...

... New York Times Editors: "On Wednesday, the Supreme Court gave an important victory to regular Americans, ruling that companies may not avoid class-action lawsuits by offering to buy off the individual plaintiffs before they can establish a class of similarly harmed people. The 6-to-3 decision was a surprising break from a long line of extremely pro-business and anti-class-action rulings by the five conservative justices, led by Chief Justice John Roberts Jr."

Justin Gillis of the New York Times: "Scientists reported Wednesday that 2015 was the hottest year in the historical record by far, breaking a record set only the year before -- a burst of heat that has continued into the new year and is roiling weather patterns all over the world. In the contiguous United States, the year was the second-warmest on record, punctuated by a December that was both the hottest and the wettest since record-keeping began. One result has been a wave of unusual winter floods coursing down the Mississippi River watershed."

Kate Linthicum of the Los Angeles Times: "The number of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally is at its lowest in more than a decade and, for the first time in years, has probably dropped below 11 million. A new study by the Center for Migration Studies estimates that 10.9 million immigrants are living in the country without authorization. That is the lowest level since 2003 and the first time the number has dipped below 11 million since 2004. The decline, which has been documented by previous studies as well, runs counter to the widespread image on the Republican presidential campaign trail of a rise in illegal immigration."

Via Politico.

Julie Bosman, et al., of the New York Times: "A top aide to Michigan's governor referred to people raising questions about the quality of Flint’s water as an 'anti-everything group.' Other critics were accused of turning complaints about water into a 'political football.' And worrisome findings about lead by a concerned pediatrician were dismissed as 'data,' in quotes. That view of how the administration of Gov. Rick Snyder initially dealt with the water crisis in the poverty-stricken, black-majority city of Flint emerge from 274 pages of emails, made public by the governor on Wednesday. The correspondence records mounting complaints by the public and elected officials, as well as growing irritation by state officials over the reluctance to accept their assurances." ...

... John Wisely, et al., of the Detroit Free Press: "House Minority Leader Tim Greimel, D-Auburn Hills, said he was very disappointed with redactions in the e-mails and the fact Snyder only released what he said were his own e-mails, instead of all Flint-related e-mails to and from officials in the executive office. The first e-mail in the file released by Snyder is from Michael Gadola, then Snyder's legal counsel, and includes 2 1/2 pages of blacked-out text." ...

... Evan Osnos of the New Yorker: "... as in New Orleans, unravelling what went wrong in Flint will probably require more than the release of e-mails and a prime-time apologia. The headwaters of Flint's crisis are not located in the realm of technical errors; rather, there are harder questions about governance and accountability in some of America's most vulnerable places." ...

... Matt Latimer in a New York Times op-ed: "EVER since I became a conservative as a teenager growing up in the city of Flint, Mich., I've heard again and again from Republican leaders about their commitment to minorities and the poor.... If only Republicans would get a chance to prove it. That chance has arrived in a big way. Unfortunately, my party is not taking it.... The Republicans were never there, until 2011, that is, when the first of four state-appointed emergency managers was brought in by the Snyder administration to address the city's financial woes.... Flint was not mentioned in the last Republican debate. Though Ben Carson, a Detroit native, on Tuesday blamed local Flint officials for the troubles.... I don't believe it's impossible for conservatives to help a place like Flint. But first you have to show up." ...

     ... CW: Wake up, Matt. The victims of Republican "management" in Flint are those "urban," "blah" people that your party counts on to serve as bogeymen -- the oppressors of the nice, white people in the GOP's basest of bases.

Presidential Race

Nick Corasaniti of the New York Times: "With the help of the Simon and Garfunkel song 'America,' Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has released a powerful 60-second commercial in Iowa that seeks to remind his supporters how far he, and they, have come -- and to inspire them anew to caucus for him on Feb. 1.... Mr. Sanders has created an ad with a vastly different feel from anything else seen in the race since Mrs. Clinton announced her candidacy in a hope-filled two-minute video":

... Greg Sargent: "... it's worth noting that the differences between Sanders and Clinton go beyond policy, to the very core of how change can be secured. Clinton has come to see politics as essentially a form of trench warfare. Clinton's closing ad in Iowa vows to 'stop the Republicans from ripping all our progress away,' an implicit acknowledgment that a new Democratic president (whoever it might be) would be deeply constrained from realizing his or her agenda.... Clinton acknowledges the true nature of the structural impediments to change; that the country is deeply divided ideologically; and that we will probably remain stuck in a grueling holding pattern for years -- meaning legislative advances will be ground out on the margins, thorough difficult, painstaking efforts to peel off Republicans and forge compromises that will look dirty and will really, really suck." ...

Jessica Taylor of NPR: "Hillary Clinton dismissed a report that emails she sent on her private email server contained a high level of classified material. Speaking to NPR's Ari Shapiro in San Antonio on Wednesday, the Democratic presidential candidate continued to maintain that she 'never sent or received any material marked classified' while at the State Department 'and that hasn't changed in all of these months.'" ...

... Anita Kumar of McClatchy News: "Hillary Clinton's spokesman accused the Intelligence Community Inspector General Wednesday of working with Republicans to attack the Democratic presidential front-runner. 'I think this was a very coordinated leak,' Brian Fallon said on CNN. 'Two months ago there was a ... report that directly challenged the finding of this inspector general, and I don't think he liked that very much. So I think that he put two Republican senators up to sending him a letter so that he would have an excuse to resurface the same allegations he made back in the summer that have been discredited.' The comments came after Inspector General Charles McCullough III told senators that he believes at least several dozen of emails Clinton sent and received while she was secretary of state contained classified material at the highest levels, according to a letter obtained by McClatchy." ...

... Hillary Clinton, in an essay on her Website, titled "What President Obama's Legacy Means to Me": "If you take a step back and look at all America has achieved over the past eight years, it's remarkable to see how far we've come. But you'd never know it from listening to the Republicans. They're quick to demonize and demean President Obama. At the last GOP presidential debate, two candidates referred to him as a 'child.' [CW: because even they didn't dare say "boy"] That kind of racially coded rhetoric has no place in our politics. Instead of insulting our president, we should be thanking him. Republicans aren't just harshly criticizing the president. They're threatening to undo just about everything he has achieved." ...

... Tina Nguyen of Vanity Fair: "A last-minute town-hall-style event, announced Wednesday by CNN and scheduled to take place just one week before the Iowa caucuses, could be a saving grace for Hillary Clinton, whose presidential campaign has faced an unexpectedly formidable challenge from Democratic rival Bernie Sanders. The prime-time gathering will air Monday at nine P.M., a huge change from the three debates that the Democratic National Committee scheduled on inconvenient weekend nights.... With ... setbacks growing more worrisome, Clinton has seized on a new strategy: clinging as hard as possible to the Obama brand, and casting Sanders as someone who would undo his legacy." ...

... Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Democrats backing Hillary Clinton, nervously eyeing Senator Bernie Sanders's growing strength in the early nominating states, are turning to a new strategy to raise doubts about his candidacy, highlighting his socialist beliefs to warn that he would be an electoral disaster who would frighten swing voters and send Democrats in tight congressional and governor's races to defeat.... And after months of ignoring Republican cheerleading for Mr. Sanders, Mrs. Clinton's campaign has started aggressively highlighting how much the opposition is openly providing him aid and comfort -- mostly recently in a new ad by Karl Rove's group American Crossroads that echoes Mr. Sanders's attacks on Mrs. Clinton's ties to Wall Street." ...

... Amy Chozick of the New York Times: "... in recent weeks, the scandals of the 1990s and [HIllary] Clinton's role in them have taken on a life of their own, delivering an unexpected headache to a campaign predicated on inspiring female voters. Mrs. Clinton had hoped to galvanize women late last month in her critique of [Donald] Trump, [whom she said had 'a penchant for sexism']. Instead, two weeks before the Iowa caucuses, her campaign has found itself trying to shore up support among women as discussions about past Clinton scandals have moved from conservative critics to broader public consciousness.... Now that the stories are resurfacing, they could hamper Mrs. Clinton's attempts to connect with younger women, who are learning the details of the Clintons' history for the first time."

Bob Cesca, who's a serious liberal, in Salon, weighs Sanders' v. Clinton's chances to win a general election. He's leaning toward not taking the Bernie gamble. ...

... CW: Although it's likely I'll vote for Sanders (in Florida), I'm mindful that a vote for Bernie might be akin to a vote for Ralph Nader (which I wasn't stupid enough to do).

Amy Sherman of Politifact: Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie "Wasserman Schultz says the party came up with a debate schedule 'to maximize the opportunity for voters to see our candidates.' Wasserman Schultz's best point is that the Democrats largely scheduled their debates with TV networks, which means viewers without cable can see them. But other than that, her statement is very disingenuous. There are six Democratic party debates compared with 11 scheduled for the Republicans, and half of the Democratic debates are on weekends -- including one the weekend before Christmas and another on the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend. If the Democrats had wanted to 'maximize' opportunities for viewers, the party could have added more debates, scheduled them on weekdays and avoided holidays." CW: Nice to know Politifact isn't as gullible as Debbie thinks we are.

Keith Laing of the Hill: "President Obama on Wednesday knocked the Republican candidates vying to replace him next year for being 'dead set' against bailing out the U.S. auto industry in 2008 and 2009. 'It's strange to watch people try to outdo each other in talking about how bad things are. But remember...these are the same folks that would've let this industry go under,' he said during a speech to the United Auto Workers union in Detroit.... He cast the federal government's $80 billion bailout of General Motors and Chrysler as a fundamental difference between Democrats and the Republicans who are running for the White House. 'These are some of the same folks who back in Washington called our plan to save the auto industry 'the road to socialism,' he said. 'They said it was going to be a "disaster;" said "they'll run it into the ground." Those are quotes by the way, I'm not making that up. Look it up'":

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Bob Dole, the former Kansas senator and 1996 Republican presidential nominee..., said that the party would suffer 'cataclysmic' and 'wholesale losses' if [Ted] Cruz was the nominee, and that Donald J. Trump would fare better. 'I question his allegiance to the party,' Mr. Dole said of Mr. Cruz. 'I don't know how often you've heard him say the word "Republican" -- not very often.' Instead, Mr. Cruz uses the word 'conservative,' Mr. Dole said, before offering up a different word for Mr. Cruz: 'extremist.' 'I don't know how he's going to deal with Congress,' he said. 'Nobody likes him.' But Mr. Dole said he thought Mr. Trump could 'probably work with Congress, because he's, you know, he's got the right personality and he's kind of a deal-maker.'" Dole supports Jeb! for president. ...

... Gail Collins: Donald Trump has had a super week, what with Iowa Gov. Terry Bransted's (R) urging Iowa Republicans not to caucus for Ted Cruz & Sarah Palin's endorsing Trump over Cruz. ...

... ** Jonathan Chait: "... throwing in with Donald Trump is an extremely bad idea for Republicans. He is wildly unpopular among the public at large, and his mix of racism, misogyny, and flamboyant ignorance is perfectly calibrated to motivate and hold together the Obama coalition of minorities, single women, and college-educated whites.... What, then, could explain the GOP's bizarre capitulation? One possible reason is undue fear of Trump's threat to run an independent candidacy if he feels mistreated by the party.... But perhaps the more important factor at work is the rise of Ted Cruz, which has coincided with a sapping of the Republican Establishment's will to oppose Trump.... If Republicans despise Cruz so much that they allow Trump to prevail, they are making a historic mistake and choosing the devil they don't know over the one they do." ...

... Digby, in Salon: "It's tempting to look at both of these characters [-- Trump & Palin --] and write them off as jokes. They truly are ridiculous in a dozen different ways. But their combination of modern media celebrity and white nationalism is something new and potentially very powerful in American politics, if Trump manages to pull off this nomination. These conditions have been ripening for years, waiting for someone to take advantage. Trump is nothing if not a world class opportunist."

Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times: "Florida's Republican primary would be a Donald Trump blowout if held today, according to a Jan. 15-18 poll by Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative. Trump leads with a whopping 47.6 percent support among likely Republicans, followed by 16.3 percent for Ted Cruz, 11.1 percent for Marco Rubio, 9.5 percent for Jeb Bush, and 3.3 percent for Ben Carson...." ...

... Steve M. points out that the Florida poll poses quite a challenge to the theory laid out by David Wasserman of 538 (linked here yesterday) that because "The GOP's primary calendar is surprisingly front-loaded with states friendly to insurgents like Trump and Cruz," it's possible for another candidate to break out in later primaries & win the nomination.

CW: I'm late to the party, but it's really worth your reading Driftglass's takedown of David Brooks' "plan" to defeat TrumpCruz. ...

The Tailgunner Takes Aim. Matt Flegenheimer & Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: Ted Cruz has begun to attack Donald Trump, after months of declining to do so. "Perhaps the surest sign of Mr. Cruz's bind has been his sharpening tone. After months not only demurring but scolding reporters who invited him to take shots at Mr. Trump, Mr. Cruz abruptly changed course last week. He derisively said Mr. Trump embodied 'New York values,' poked fun at his knowledge of foreign affairs and suggested that he was taking his cues from Democrats." ...

... Birtherism, 2.0 Syllabus Update. Einer Elhauge, another Constitutional scholar, "close-reads" the Constitution & finds that Ted Cruz is not qualified to run for president because he does not meet the requirement of being "natural born citizen." ...

... Jason Horowitz of the New York Times: Ted "Cruz, the most ardent death penalty advocate of Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist's clerks in the 1996 term, became known at the court for his signature writing style. Nearly two decades later, his colleagues recall how Mr. Cruz, who frequently spoke of how his mentor's father had been killed by a carjacker, often dwelled on the lurid details of murders that other clerks tended to summarize before quickly moving to the legal merits of the case.... In interviews with nearly two dozen of Mr. Cruz's former colleagues on the court, many of the clerks working in the chambers of liberal justices, but also several from conservative chambers, depicted Mr. Cruz as 'obsessed' with capital punishment." ...

... digby: "If you read nothing else today, read this Bloomberg article about Ted Cruz's top benefactor, the certifiably looney tunes wingnut billionaire, Robert Mercer. He makes the Kochs look like Ike by comparison." ...

Beyond the Beltway

Denis Theriault of the Oregonian: Oregon "Gov. Kate Brown on Wednesday had harsh words for the federal government's handling of a 19-day occupation at the Malheur National Wildfire Refuge -- calling the response too slow and saying it's left neighbors in Harney County lacking as tensions worsen." ...

... Rebecca Woolington of the Oregonian: Neil Sigurd Wampler, "one of the protesters taking part in the armed occupation at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, is a 68-year-old former woodworker and, according to court records and authorities, a convicted killer."

Dana Milbank: Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel appeared to be gutsy when he dared to show up as a featured panelist "at the opening plenary luncheon of the U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting. The topic: 'Reducing Violence and Strengthening Police/Community Trust.' But then "He didn't even mention the [police killing of Laquan McDonald] incident directly, instead proffering a variety of facts and figures indicating everything is awesome in Chicago.... Asked for an update on crime in Chicago and 'the biggest problems you currently face,' Emanuel said nothing about Topic A. 'Guns and gangs,' he answered."

Way Beyond

Alan Cowell of the New York Times: "A high-profile British inquiry into the poisoning of Alexander V. Litvinenko, a former K.G.B. officer turned critic of the Kremlin, concluded in a report released on Thursday that his murder 'was probably approved' by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and the head of the country's spy service. The finding by Robert Owen, a retired High Court judge, presented in a 328-page report, represented by far the most damning official link between Mr. Litvinenko's death on Nov. 23, 2006, and the highest levels of the Kremlin."