The Commentariat -- June 22, 2016

Lauren Fox of TPM: "A new, bipartisan proposal to keep guns out of the hands of suspected terrorists got a major boost Tuesday after Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) agreed to allow it to come to a vote on the Senate floor as early as this week. Early indications are that the measure has redrawn the normal contours of the gun control debate, with some vulnerable GOP senators getting onboard with centrist Democrats. It's not clear that the the bill will have sufficient support ... to pass, but it does suggest more moderate GOP senators are feeling political pressure to act after the attack in Orlando...." -- CW

Matthew Nusbaum of Politico: "The House will not vote to block the inclusion of Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill, dodging a politically charged vote for GOP lawmakers. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) had filed an amendment to a bill funding the Treasury Department to prohibit the department from redesigning any currency to showcase the abolitionist icon, but the Rules Committee denied floor consideration of the proposal Tuesday night." --safari

Carolyn Johnson of the Washington Post: "A new study predicts that the federal forecast of national health care spending under President Obama's signature health law was a big overestimate -- by $2.6 trillion over a five-year period." ...

... CW: But Who Cares? Because Guess What? Jennifer Haberkorn of Politico: "Speaker Paul Ryan on Wednesday will lay out the House's plan to repeal and replace Obamacare in a paper designed to show voters the GOP isn't just a party of no. But the paper -- which paints a conservative health policy agenda in broad strokes but doesn't get into details like dollar amounts, who would be covered or how much financial help they might get -- underscores the political and policy problems facing Republicans as they seek to unite around a plan to unravel a social safety net program that is already used by 20 million people." -- CW

Jeremy Roebuck of Philly.com: "U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah (D., Pa.) was convicted Tuesday on federal racketeering and bribery charges, putting an ignominious stamp on the career of one of the region's longest-serving members of Congress and all but ensuring that his public life will be capped with a prison sentence.... The verdict came after four weeks of testimony in which prosecutors painted the congressman as an arrogant lawbreaker who repeatedly turned to the money of others - taxpayers, charities, wealthy fund-raisers - to cover his personal and political debts. His lawyers did not say whether they planned to appeal." Fattah, who was defeated in the primary, wouldn't say whether he would resign his Congressional seat. -- CW

Jonathan Rauch of The Atlantic: "It's 2020, four years from now. The campaign is under way to succeed the president, who is retiring after a single wretched term. Voters are angrier than ever -- at politicians, at compromisers, at the establishment...As the presidential primaries unfold, Kanye West is leading a fractured field of Democrats. The Republican front-runner is Phil Robertson, of Duck Dynasty fame...Yes, the political future I've described is unreal. But it is also a linear extrapolation of several trends on vivid display right now...Trump, however, didn't cause the chaos. The chaos caused Trump. What we are seeing is not a temporary spasm of chaos but a chaos syndrome. Chaos syndrome is a chronic decline in the political system's capacity for self-organization." --safari

Fred Kaplan of Slate: "David Petraeus is back...[D]espite this harrowing path of self-destruction, he is now, 3½ years later, a public figure once more, speaking out on the issues of the day to generally respectful audiences. And some of the things he's saying are raising eyebrows. In short, and to the disturbance of some conservatives who might have thought he was on their side, Petraeus has been sounding a lot like a Democrat." --safari

Presidential Race

Anne Gearan & Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: "The Hillary Clinton campaign has begun checking into the positions, backgrounds and financial dealings of at least three potential vice presidential candidates, Democrats familiar with the process said Tuesday: Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Timothy M. Kaine of Virginia. Clinton has also begun to winnow a list of more than a dozen potential choices, another senior Democrat said." -- CW

CW: Paul Waldman is not impressed with Bernie Sanders' demands for "reforms" of the Democratic party's presidential nominating system. Me, either.

Rory Carroll of the Guardian: "He was a one-man media hurricane dominating the news with insults and provocations, promises and policy pronouncements. He would tweet at all hours, phone TV chat shows, stage rollicking rallies. He could be funny and coarse and buffoonish and broke all the rules about presidential conduct...This may sound familiar as Donald Trump marches towards the Republican presidential nomination. But actually it describes Venezuela from 1999 to 2013 under the reign of Hugo Chávez...having reported on both ... I am struck by the similarities in character and style." --safari

Matt Flegenheimer & Amy Chozick of the New York Times: "Hillary Clinton pounded away on Tuesday at Donald J. Trump's business record and economic proposals.... Though she leveled predictable blows against various Trump-branded products, noting that many items ... were made outside the United States, Mrs. Clinton's most pointed refrains sought to depict Mr. Trump ... as an enemy to the very people he had claimed to champion in the primary. She checked off the stumbles of his casino business in Atlantic City; disparaged his companies' bankruptcies (Mr. Trump's many books about business 'all seem to end at Chapter 11,' she joked); and insisted that his 'one move' in business and politics was to make 'over-the-top promises' and then let people down." -- CW ...

... Anne Gearan: "... Donald Trump has swindled investors while stiffing and stepping on employees, contractors and others throughout a business career that should disqualify him as president..., Hillary Clinton charged Tuesday. Exactly the thing that Trump claims is his main qualification -- his business background -- is proof of values and practices that should trouble voters, Clinton said. Her speech blended criticism of Trump's stated positions on the economy with warnings that the mogul is a big talker who has always been out for only himself." -- CW

Alexander Burns & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "The situation has grown so dire for Mr. Trump that on Tuesday, he suggested that he might tap his personal fortune to keep the campaign afloat.... In a defiant statement, Mr. Trump said that he was just getting started as a competitor against Mrs. Clinton, and that there had been a 'tremendous outpouring of support' from donors since the beginning of June. But he has mused publicly in recent days about funding the race himself, and on Tuesday opened the door wider to that possibility." -- CW ...

... Dana Milbank: "... Trump is doing to the Republican Party what he did to Atlantic City.... Once he gained full ownership of the Taj, he quickly failed in his vow to secure prime lending, just as he quickly abandoned his fundraising goals after locking down the nomination. Then, as now, he made sure the Taj generated money for other Trump businesses. Then, as now, he alienated many who had supported him, and regulators suspected deception -- but they continued to support his ownership of the floundering casino (much as GOP leaders support his nomination) because they were already in too deep." -- CW

Jonathan Easley of the Hill: "Speaking to a group of top social conservative evangelical Christian leaders at a gathering in New York City, Trump said, 'We don't know anything about Hillary in terms of religion. Now, she's been in the public eye for years and years, and yet there's no -- there's nothing out there,' Trump said. 'There's like nothing out there. It's going to be an extension of Obama but it's going to be worse, because with Obama you had your guard up. With Hillary you don't, and it's going to be worse.'" ...

     ... CW: Really? Hillary Clinton is a believing Methodist, & has said so time & again. She even went so far as to join a right-wing Bible study group. And exactly how did Obama cause us to "have our guards up"? He has long expressed a belief in a Niebuhresque Christian faith, and he seems to have a strong grasp of it, so -- unlike Trump -- he is unlikely to cite either of the Two Corinthians. ...

     ... Ed Kilgore is appalled by Trump's ignorant remark about Clinton & by his view of Christianity. -- CW ...

... Michelle Boorstein & Julie Zauzmer of the Washington Post: "In his comments [to Christian conservatives in New York City, Donald Trump] said he would end the decades-old ban on tax-exempt groups' -- including churches -- politicking, called religious liberty 'the No. 1 question,' and promised to appoint antiabortion Supreme Court justices. 'I think maybe that will be my greatest contribution to Christianity -- and other religions -- is to allow you, when you talk religious liberty, to go and speak openly, and if you like somebody or want somebody to represent you, you should have the right to do it,' Trump said. A ban was put in place by President Lyndon Johnson on tax-exempt groups making explicit political endorsements." ...

... CW: In case you're thinking Trump's "greatest contribution to Christianity -- and other religions" is a sign of his deep religious faith, then you missed the report by Tim Mak & Andrew Desiderio, linked here a few days ago. As usual, Donald Trump's sudden interest in championing "religious liberty" is another scheme to benefit Donald Trump:

 The Trump Foundation, Donald Trump's nonprofit organization, is under fire for allegedly operating as more of a political slush fund than a charity. The foundation is accused of violating rules prohibiting it from engaging in politics -- prompting ethics watchdogs to call for public investigations.

     ... The WashPo reporters should have made the connection. ...

... Nick Gass of Politico: "... Michele Bachmann leads an alphabetical list of names announced by Donald Trump's campaign on Tuesday as the presumptive Republican nominee's evangelical executive advisory board. Along with Bachmann, the campaign announced the additions radio host and Focus on the Family founder James Dobson, Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr, Faith and Freedom Coalition founder Ralph Reed, among more than two dozen names." -- CW

Dara Lind of Vox: "On Monday, the Republican-led Senate didn't just hand a defeat to gun control supporters. It handed a defeat to its own party's presumptive presidential nominee. Donald Trump supports prohibiting suspected terrorists from buying guns. He even tried to flex some muscle last week to get the National Rifle Association on board. (After all, Trump pointed out, the NRA has endorsed him -- and if his treatment of Chris Christie is any indication, he sees endorsement as something like indentured servitude.)... There's every indication Trump overplayed his hand here. He thought that as his party's standard-bearer he'd have more clout than the NRA, and he was wrong." ...

     ... CW: The senators' motives are obvious. Donald Trump is broke; he isn't going to contribute to their campaigns. The NRA, on the other hand....

Eli Stokols of Politico: "... many Republicans, both supporters and skeptics of Trump's campaign, note that the consolidation of power by [Paul] Manafort and the [Trump] children does not guarantee any change in the candidate himself, whose undisciplined past few weeks -- from his racially tinged criticism of a federal judge to his off-key, self-congratulatory response to the Orlando terrorist attack -- have discouraged donors and leery Republicans who'd still been trying to give him the benefit of the doubt." -- CW

Darren Sands of BuzzFeed: "A Georgia Republican Party official was thrown out of a Donald Trump event last week, according to two sources. Michael McNeely, the first vice chair of the Georgia Republicans, was escorted out of Atlanta's Fox Theatre by Secret Service after being told there was 'no more room for you' by Trump campaign state director Brandon Phillips, according to a party official briefed on the incident.... Reached by phone regarding the incident, McNeely told BuzzFeed News, 'I'll have to get back to you' before hanging up." ...

Michael McNeely.... CW: I just can't figure out why that happened. According to Sands, McNeely is a Trump supporter. McNeely looks like an upstanding fellow to me.

Beyond the Beltway

Jack Jenkins of ThinkProgress: "An Oklahoma lawmaker [Pat Ownbey R-duh] personally propagated an article over the weekend calling for a 'final solution' regarding 'radical Islam,' arguing that the 1,400-year-old faith is not a religion and should not be protected under the first amendment of the Constitution. On Sunday..., Ownbey re-published an article to his Facebook page entitled 'Radical Islam -- The Final Solution.' The article was originally published on the personal blog of Paul R. Hollrah, an Oklahoman who touts himself as a 'retired government relations executive,' but Ownbey appears to have copy-pasted the piece and reposted it in its entirety, citing Hollrah." --safari

Brad Reed of RawStory: "Baptist pastor Roger Jimenezof the California-based Verity Baptist Church drew widespread condemnation when he praised Omar Mateen's terror attack on a gay Orlando nightclub -- and now he's getting some much-deserved comeuppance.... Harsch Investment Properties, the company that owns the building where Jimenez's church now resides, says that it will not renew the church's lease and is even asking Jimenez to consider moving immediately." --safari

Way Beyond the Beltway

Loveday Morris of the Washington Post: "Families fleeing the combat in the Iraqi city of Fallujah have been forced to sleep in the open desert for almost a week, with aid agencies warning that people are at risk of dying as supplies of tents and water run dangerously low. More than 85,000 people have escaped the city and its surroundings in recent weeks as Iraqi security forces battle to recapture the city from the Islamic State. About 4.4 million people in the country are now internally displaced, one of the highest totals of any country." -- CW

The Commentariat -- June 21, 2016

Afternoon Update:

As I Was Saying.... Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump regularly boasts that he is self-funding his presidential bid, but new campaign finance filings show that he is also shifting plenty of money back to himself in the process. According to documents submitted to the Federal Election Commission, Mr. Trump, whose campaign has just $1.3 million cash on hand, paid at least $1.1 million to his businesses and family members in May for expenses associated with events and travel costs." CW: So the campaign has just enough money to pay the Trump family this month. How conveeenient. See my comment, below, on Josh Marshall's post. ...

... Paul Waldman: "... when the entire rationale for your campaign rests on your ability to obtain and manage money, stories like the ones we're now seeing about Trump are likely to stick in people's minds." -- CW

*****

Feminist in Chief. Ann Friedman of New York: "'I may be a little grayer than I was eight years ago,' President Obama told a room of 5,000 at the White House's United State of Women summit last week, 'but this is what a feminist looks like.'... I couldn't help but notice, though, that the 'here's what we still need to do' portion of his speech bore a striking resemblance to the promises he made to women on the campaign trail in 2008.... Obama has spent the past eight years doing his best to push for big, necessary cultural and economic shifts in the face of entrenched institutions and hostile opponents. And he mostly failed.... For the kind of progress we want, we need politicians at every level who look like feminists. We need business leaders who look like feminists. And we need activists." --safari

Jennifer Steinhauer of the New York Times: "The Senate on Monday failed to advance four separate measures aimed at curbing gun sales, the latest display of congressional inaction after a mass shooting.... Eight days after a gunman claiming allegiance to the Islamic State killed 49 people in an Orlando, Fla., nightclub, the Senate deadlocked, largely along party lines, on amendments to block people on the federal terrorism watch list from buying guns and to close loopholes in background check laws. Families of gun violence victims looked on from the Senate chamber as the votes were held." -- CW ...

... Dana Milbank: "Lawmakers have known for a long time that those suspected of terrorist activities can legally buy guns, but the Republican majority, putting Second Amendment absolutism above modest national-security considerations, is refusing to fix the problem.... And Monday night..., Republicans responded [to Democrats' 'no-fly/no-buy' legislation] as if President Obama himself were going door-to-door, confiscating every American's guns.... Monday night was the best chance yet to block would-be terrorists from getting guns, and, as before, the Republican majority chose not to act." -- CW ...

... Matt Zapotosky & Mark Berman of the Washington Post: "The FBI on Monday released a partial transcript of the conversations Orlando gunman Omar Mateen had with hostage negotiators and police dispatchers, and their dialogue reinforces that the 29-year-old was at least partly inspired by the Islamic State and intent on inflicting stunning destruction.... Initially, the department redacted references to the Islamic State and its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The decision to do that drew intense criticism from Republicans.... The FBI and the Justice Department later released details of one exchange that included explicit mention of the Islamic State." The transcript, some of it translated from Arabic, is here. -- CW

Michelle Cottle of The Atlantic: "[Paul] Ryan's beloved agenda -- the one his wonkish heart has been dreaming of and laboring over and counting on to define his speakership -- has been something of a PR bust, yet another sad casualty of this election cycle's Trumpsanity.... At this rate, Ryan should consider not even bothering to prepare remarks for the rollouts of the final two agenda pieces (health care and taxes). He might as well just wait and see what kind of verbal atrocities Trump commits during those news cycles." --safari

We must not pretend that the countless people who are routinely targeted by police are 'isolated.' They are the canaries in the coal mine whose deaths, civil and literal, warn us that no one can breathe in this atmosphere.... They are the ones who recognize that unlawful police stops corrode all our civil liberties and threaten all our lives. Until their voices matter too, our justice system will continue to be anything but. -- Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Utah V. Strieff, dissent

... Aviva Shen of Think Progress:"The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Monday that police can still arrest someone for an outstanding warrant even if they had no right to stop the person in the first place. The opinion, authored by Justice Clarence Thomas, reverses a Utah Supreme Court order to suppress evidence discovered by a police officer during an illegal stop...The ruling, according to Justice Sonia Sotomayor, is essentially giving the green light to police to continue stopping and arresting black and brown people for little to no reason beyond their race and class. In a searing dissent joined in part by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sotomayor describes a police state that regards black and brown Americans in particular as 'second-class citizens.' She issues a direct warning to those Americans whose profiling the court has sanctioned." --safari ...

     ... CW: When Clarence Thomas looks in the mirror in the morning, he must see a Southern white police chief.

... "A Wise Latina" Dissents. The Washington Post report, by Robert Barnes, is here. Barnes focuses on Sotomayor's dissent: "Her 12-page opinion explained 'the talk' that black and brown parents have with their children about police interactions, invoked Ferguson, Mo., and, without direct acknowledgment, referenced the sentiments of the Black Lives Matter movement." You can read the dissent in full in the opinion, linked in Aviva Shen's post. ...

... ** Fruit of the Poisoned Tree. Mark Stern of Slate has a good explanation of the Court's 5-3 decision (Breyer joined the conservojustices) & cites portions of Sotomayor's dissent. "Sotomayor's dissent is not just an effective rebuttal to the Strieff majority (though it surely is that). It is also a brutal and necessary indictment of an increasingly conservative court's repudiation of the Constitution's most important safeguards against police misconduct -- and a reminder that this weakening of Fourth Amendment freedoms has especially dire consequences for America's minority and low-income communities." -- CW

Ian Milhiser of Think Progress: "Barring extraordinary events, the eight justices of the Supreme Court will begin a three month summer vacation next week. Before they go, however, they need to resolve a little over a dozen cases, including an attack on the Obama administration's immigration policies, a major challenge to affirmative action, and the most significant abortion case to reach the Supreme Court since the right to choose's near death experience in 1992.... Fortunately for abortion providers, the possibility that Texas will win outright in Whole Woman's Health appears to have died with the late Justice Antonin Scalia. " --safari

Jessica Lenza of the Guardian: "An experimental vaccine for the Zika virus is due to begin human testing in coming weeks, after getting the green light from US health officials.... There are currently no licensed drugs or vaccines for Zika." --safari

Oliver Holmes of the Guardian: "At least 185 environmental activists were killed last year, the highest annual death toll on record and close to a 60% increase on the previous year, according to a UK-based watchdog. Global Witness documented lethal attacks across 16 countries.... The most deadly industry to protest against was mining, with 42 deaths in 2015 related to anti-mining activities. Agribusiness, hydroelectric dams and logging were also key drivers of violence, Global Witness found, and many of the murders occurred in remote villages deep within rainforests." --safari

Presidential Race

Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "Hillary Clinton plans a one-two punch this week to first paint Donald Trump as reckless and misguided in his approach to the economy and then present what her campaign is calling a thematic argument about why her ideas and programs are better. Clinton will attempt to pick apart Trump's economic policies in an address [in Columbus, Ohio,] Tuesday that is roughly patterned on the point-by-point attack she launched on Trump's national security ideas earlier this month." -- CW

Wherein Trump Posits that His Supporters Are Ashamed to Admit They'll Vote for Him. Steve Benen: "Over the weekend, Trump [said] that the latest polling shows he's 'essentially even' with Clinton, which is true if you define 'even' as 'not particularly close.'... We shouldn't necessarily believe the polling, he's arguing, because Americans who intend to vote for Trump are too embarrassed to admit it when asked for their preference in surveys." -- CW ...

... On the Other Hand. Gabriel Sanchez & Alan Abramowitz in the Washington Post: "In 2012, many polls underestimated how many minorities would vote and how many would vote for [President] Obama.... Unfortunately, some pollsters may be making the same mistakes in 2016 -- and thereby underestimating Hillary Clinton's lead in the polls.... Several polls suffer from flaws in how they sample Latinos." -- CW ...

Gabriel Debenedetti & Daniel Lippman of Politico: "The abrupt ouster of Lewandowski, less than one month prior to the Republican National Convention, suggested that Trump's recent slide in the polls -- and the growing evidence that his campaign has fallen far behind in executing general-election fundamentals -- has finally sparked a rethinking of the campaign's approach, beginning at the top. 'If it signals that Donald Trump is taking his responsibility to pivot to a general election posture seriously, then it is good news,' said Michael Steel, a former adviser to Jeb Bush and John Boehner. 'If not, it's continuing the narrative of chaos and division that has marked his candidacy so far.'" -- CW ...

... Josh Marshall of TPM: "The real news is that Trump is broke.... Reports suggest that Trump has been unwilling to undergo the ego effacement of calling high dollar Republican donors and asking for money. His campaign has virtually no money in the bank ($2.4m at last count*).... The Trump fundraising apparatus appears to be working at the Ginsu knives level of marketing." ...

     * CW: The latest FEC report has the Trump campaign's cash-on-hand at a mere $1.3MM, compared to Clinton's $42.5 MM. See the Times report linked below & also this Politico report.

... CW: Marshall argues that Trump must not be the multi-billionaire he claims to be if he can't come up with even a few million bucks at this critical time. But I don't think that's it. He hasn't come up with the money because his modus operandi is to get other people to provide the capital for his businesses schemes; he invests nothing but skims cash off the top as the businesses themselves fail. Earlier reports are that he's been doing something similar in this presidential campaign: charging the campaign for use of facilities he owns, like his aircraft. Long ago, Trump said he was probably the only candidate in history who could make money off a presidential run. Trump's model of "success" is far less dependent upon the project's viability than on his personal profit. ...

... Nicholas Confessore & Rachel Shorey of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump enters the general election campaign laboring under the worst financial and organizational disadvantage of any major party nominee in recent history, placing both his candidacy and his party in political peril.... The Trump campaign has not aired a television advertisement since he effectively secured the nomination in May and has not booked any advertising for the summer or fall. Mrs. Clinton and her allies spent nearly $26 million on advertising in June alone.... The shortfall is leaving Mr. Trump extraordinarily dependent on the Republican National Committee, which has seen record fund-raising this campaign cycle...." -- CW ...

... Matea Gold of the Washington Post: "Koch-backed groups are training their resources on boosting vulnerable Republican Senate candidates.... But ... it was clear that even if the Koch network stays out of the presidential race, it could still end up being one of Trump's best assets. The Koch operation's field teams are gathering reams of information on voters in key battleground states, intelligence that filters back to the Republican National Committee and GOP candidates through a data-sharing agreement. Even more valuable is the early organizing push by the network's robust ground force, which far outstrips Trump's meager field operation...." -- CW

The Children's Hour. Gabriel Sherman of New York: Donald Trump's adult children set up Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski for a fall in a Monday morning campaign strategy meeting. "... the children peppered Lewandowski with questions, asking him to explain the campaign's lack of infrastructure.... Their father grew visibly upset as he heard the list of failures. Finally, he turned to Lewandowski and said, 'What's your plan here?' Lewandowski responded that he wanted to leak Trump's vice-president pick. And with that, Lewandowski was out.... Shortly after the meeting, Lewandowski was escorted out of the building by Trump security.... As one adviser put it to me: 'The real lesson here is everyone is expendable except for the kids. It's tribal.'" -- CW ...

... Steve M.: One of Ivanka Trump's reasons for disliking Lewandowski is that he supposedly dished some dirt to the press about her husband, Jared Kushner. "A threat to Kushner is also a threat to Donald Trump's next ego gratification scheme": a "mini-media conglomerate" which Kushner -- who already owns the New York Observer -- would run. -- CW ...

... Inae Oh of Mother Jones: "Just hours after being fired and escorted out of Donald Trump's headquarters in New York, Corey Lewandowski appeared on CNN on Monday to continue praising [Trump] ..., and defend [him] ... amid sinking poll numbers and reports of chaos within the campaign.... Many times he appeared to discuss losing his job as if he were still employed with the campaign." -- CW ...

... Daniel Strauss of Politico: "Donald Trump adviser Michael Caputo is no longer part of the presumptive Republican presidential candidate's campaign after writing a celebratory tweet that former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski was fired. In response to news of Lewandowski's departure from the campaign Caputo, who runs communications for Trump's caucus team, sent out a tweet saying 'Ding Dong the witch is dead.'" --safari

Gene Robinson: "Donald Trump apparently wants to institute something akin to Jim Crow discrimination against Muslims, including those who are citizens of the United States.... He seems to believe intent can be infallibly discerned from appearance.... Trump wants to put Islamic houses of worship under special surveillance.... The Republican Party is about to nominate for president a man who manifestly does not believe in freedom of religion. Shame on the GOP officials who meekly fall in line." -- CW

Ben Schreckinger of Politico: "If Donald Trump's claims that certain of his commercial ventures benefit charity are untrue, he could be held liable under Section 349 of New York's General Business Law, which forbids deceptive business acts and practices, as well as under charitable solicitation laws, according to legal experts. In promoting products as varied as Trump University, Trump Vodka, a Trump board game and his latest book, 'Crippled America,' the businessman has declared that the proceeds would go to charity. None of Trump's proceeds from Trump University have gone to charity, and only a few hundred dollars of charitable giving related to Trump Vodka has been accounted for." --safari

Jonathan Chait & Ed Kilgore discuss whether the GOP should Dump Trump, cross their fingers and pray. -- safari

Michelle Rindels & Adam Causey of the AP: "A British man arrested at a weekend Donald Trump rally in Las Vegas tried to grab a police officer's gun so he could kill the presidential candidate after planning an assassination for about a year, according to authorities.... A complaint filed Monday in U.S. District Court in Nevada charges [Michael] Sandford, 20, with an act of violence on restricted grounds. He was denied bail during a court appearance later in the day. His court-appointed attorney said he was living out of his car and in the country illegally after overstaying a visa." ...

     ... CW: Obviously, a person who attempts to assassinate the presumptive presidential nominee of a major American political party is a terrorist. In light of this incident, I propose a ban on U.S. visits by all Brits -- or, what the hell, all Europeans. Also, U.S. law enforcement must profile anyone who "looks European."

Way Beyond the Beltway

George Soros, in a Guardian op-ed, warns Britons that Brexit will make them all poorer. -- CW

Oliver Milman of the Guardian: "The Chinese government has outlined a plan to reduce its citizens' meat consumption by 50%, in a move that climate campaigners hope will provide major heft in the effort to avoid runaway global warming.... Should the new guidelines be followed, carbon dioxide equivalent emissions from China's livestock industry would be reduced by 1bn tonnes by 2030, from a projected 1.8bn tonnes in that year. Globally, 14.5% of planet-warming emissions emanate from the keeping and eating of cows, chickens, pigs and other animals -- more than the emissions from the entire transport sector." --safari

David Axe of The Daily Beast: "U.S. and Russian fighter jets bloodlessly tangled in the air over Syria on June 16 as the American pilots tried and failed to stop the Russians from bombing U.S.-backed rebels in southern Syria near the border with Jordan. The aerial close encounter underscores just how chaotic Syria's skies have become as Russia and the U.S.-led coalition work at cross-purposes, each dropping bombs in support of separate factions in the five-year-old civil war. The near-clash also highlights the escalating risk of American and Russian forces actually coming to blows over Syria, potentially sparking a much wider conflict between the world's leading nuclear powers." --safari

The Commentariat -- June 20, 2016

Afternoon Update (see also links marked "NEW" below):

Jonathan Chait reports on the state of Trump's campaign, which Chait characterizes as "a garbage fire." -- CW ...

... Scott Lemieux, in LG&M, has more, and it's fairly hilarious. -- CW ...

... Laura Clawson of Daily Kos on Lewandowski's firing: "... whoever's left on the campaign should maybe have considered that you don't deliver classic 'Friday news dump' material like this on a Monday morning." -- CW

Ben White of Politico: "Big Wall Street donors have a message for Hillary Clinton: Keep Elizabeth Warren off the ticket or risk losing millions of dollars in contributions." -- CW

** Making America Poor Again. Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "Donald Trump's presidency would 'significantly' weaken the country, driving the U.S. into a 'lengthy recession' with nearly 3.5 million job losses and a 7 percent unemployment rate, according to a Moody's analysis released Monday."

Josh Gerstein of Politico: "The Supreme Court announced Monday that it will take up a case exploring when immigrants detained solely for immigration violations have the right to be released from jail. The justices agreed to consider a federal appeals court decision that essentially found detained immigrants were entitled to a bond hearing after six months in custody and every six months thereafter." -- CW

*****

NEW. Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Monday refused to hear a Second Amendment challenge to a Connecticut law banning many semiautomatic rifles. The law, enacted in 2013 in the wake of the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., made it a crime to sell or possess the firearms, which critics call assault weapons. The decision ... is part of a trend in which the justices have given at least tacit approval to broad gun-control laws in states and localities that choose to enact them." -- CW

NEW. AP: "The Supreme Court says the Labor Department must do a better job of explaining why it is changing a longstanding policy on whether certain workers deserve overtime pay. The justices on Monday asked a lower court to take another look at whether federal law allows the agency to require overtime pay for people working as service advisers at auto dealerships. The 6-2 ruling comes in a case involving a California auto dealer that claims its service advisers are similar to car salesmen or mechanics, who are exempt from overtime requirements under the Fair Labor Standards Act." Per ScotusBlog, the dissenters were Thomas & Alito. -- CW

Be Still, My Heart. Paul Bedard of the Washington Examiner: "Justice Clarence Thomas ... is mulling retirement after the presidential election, according to court watchers." CW: No longer able to get away with "What Nino said," apparently Clarence finds having to write his own dissents way too arduous. ...

... digby: "... it sure would be poetic justice if 'The Roberts Court' ended up with Roberts and Alito huddled in their own little corner as the last remnants of the Reagan Revolution." CW ...

... BUT. Scott Lemieux, in LG&M, with a Reality Chek: "... unnamed 'court watchers,' 'mulling' retirement, suggestions that he would like to retire to do something the job allows him to do anyway ... let's just say that barring force majeure if the next president nominates Thomas's replacement I'll be shocked." -- CW

Washington Post Editors: "Having turned what could have been a wholly reasonable investigation of IRS carelessness into a partisan scandal hunt, the most concrete result from [Republican Congressional] inquiries may end up being a gratuitous attack on a longtime public servant." -- CW

Jenny Rowland in ThinkProgress: "Democrats from the House committees on Natural Resources and Homeland Security this week held a joint forum that focused on the steps that need to be taken to confront violent extremism on America's public lands. The forum comes five months after Ammon Bundy and a group of anti-government extremists took over the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Harney County, Oregon.... Panelists and members of Congress alike expressed disappointment in the issue's lack of bipartisan attention." --safari

Alana Semuels of The Atlantic: "Congresswoman Gwen Moore (D-WI) is introducing the Top 1% Accountability Act of 2016, which would require drug testing for all tax filers claiming itemized deductions totaling over $150,000.... The number of government tests and requirements for poor people receiving government aid has grown in recent years.... According to one report, more than 95 percent of tax filers making over $200,000 itemized their deductions in 2011, compared to just 13 percent of those with incomes of $50,000 or less.... The government spent $17 billion in Temporary Aid to Needy Families (commonly known as welfare) in 2013. The mortgage-interest and real-estate tax deductions cost the government $98 billion in 2013, according to CFED." --safari

Profiting from Fear. Evan Osnos of the New Yorker: "More American civilians have died by gunfire in the past decade than all the Americans who were killed in combat in the Second World War.... The story of how millions of Americans discovered the urge to carry weapons to join, in effect, a self-appointed, well-armed, lightly trained militia -- begins not in the Old West but in the nineteen-seventies.... In 1977, more than half of all American households had a gun in the house. By 2014, it was less than a third. Each gun owner now has an average of eight guns.... Much as the industry capitalized on the Los Angeles riots, it has excelled, since 9/11, at tapping into the fear of terrorism." A long read. --safari ...

... NEW. AP: "The FBI says that the Orlando nightclub shooter was not directed by a foreign terror group, but was radicalized domestically. At a news conference Monday morning, Ron Hopper of the FBI also said that in 911 calls, shooter Omar Mateen described his actions to an operator in a 'chilling, calm and deliberate manner.'" -- CW

... Emily Schultheis of CBS News: "National Rifle Association President Wayne LaPierre said Sunday that gun control legislation would not be effective in stopping mass shootings in the United States.... LaPierre ... sa[id] President Obama and other Democrats are trying to blame guns for the shooting in Orlando to deflect from their 'failure' to effectively combat terrorism." CW: Right. Because there's no possible way to write legislation that would stop a guy from walking into a gun store & buying assault weapons & ammo. ...

...Asawin Suebsaeng of The Daily Beast: "For years, the editorial page that has most fervently favored stricter gun control in America hasn't been found in The New York Times, The Washington Post, or The Boston Globe. It's been on the pages of The Onion, America's leading news-satire organization.... The horror of the past week has led Wired magazine to declare that 'only The Onion can save us now,' and for Bustle to write that the 'Orlando shooting makes this Onion article more relevant than ever.'" --safari

... Quinn Owen of ABC News: "The NRA's top lobbyist said no one should go into a nightclub 'drinking and carrying firearms' when asked about Donald Trump's comments about whether armed club-goers may have prevented the Orlando nightclub shooting, and NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre echoed those remarks in a separate interview. At a rally on Friday, the presumptive Republican nominee said the massacre would have been prevented if some of the victims had been armed." -- CW ...

... CBS New York: "Appearing on 'Face the Nation' Sunday, National Rifle Association Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre blamed a 'politically correct' federal government for the fact that the Orlando nightclub massacre gunman was taken off an FBI watch list." -- CW ...

... D'Angelo Gore of FactCheck.org (June 16): "Donald Trump said there were 'no guns on the other side' in the mass shooting in Orlando and there would've been fewer deaths 'if the bullets were going in the other direction, aimed at the guy who was just in open target practice.' But ... Adam Gruler, an Orlando police officer working security for Pulse nightclub that night, traded gunshots with the gunman, Omar Mateen, near the club's entrance.... In addition, news reports said that two of the responding officers, who were nearby and arrived at the scene not long after, also fired at Mateen before he retreated to a club bathroom with hostages." -- CW

Presidential Race

Shane Harris of The Daily Beast: "The saga of [Hillary] Clinton's email has become the candidate's biggest single point of vulnerability, and the question of whether she might be indicted in the affair is her own sword of Damocles. While criminal charges seem less likely by the day, Judicial Watch, which has pursued Clinton and her husband in court for years,has guaranteed that the political threat of the email issue won't subside...Since its founding in 1994, his group has filed suits against every presidential administration. But in Hillary Clinton, Fitton may have found his white whale." --safari

Daniel Strauss of Politico: "Bernie Sanders is on a crash course with the Congressional Black Caucus. In a letter sent to both the Sanders and Hillary Clinton campaigns, the CBC is expressing its resolute opposition to two key reforms demanded by Sanders in the run-up to the Democratic convention: abolishing the party's superdelegate system and opening Democratic primaries up to independents and Republicans." -- CW ...

... Seema Mehta of the Los Angeles Times: "The California Democratic Party on Sunday called for a broad overhaul of how the party nominates its presidential candidates, including the elimination of caucuses and most super-delegates." -- CW

Yamiche Alcindor of the New York Times: A "gathering this weekend, which was called 'The People's Summit...,' drew thousands of people to McCormick Place, a large conference center in Chicago.... The event, which was organized by National Nurses United, a labor union that campaigned heavily for [Bernie] Sanders, featured discussions about how to encourage like-minded people to run for local offices and to push groups to work together on issues like racial justice, income inequality and electoral changes. One session included discussion of protest methods, using mock sit-ins and arrests, for the Democratic National Convention next month in Philadelphia." -- CW

** NEW. "You're Fired!" Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump has fired his contentious campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, a move that comes as the presumptive Republican nominee faces challenges as he heads into the general election." CW: In a statement. Mr. Lewandowski said he was parting ways with the Trump campaign in order to spend more time with skinheads, white supremacists and armed insurrectionists. A spokesman for the International Brotherhood of Male Chauvinist Pigs announced that Mr. Lewandowski had accepted a post on their board of directors.

Jonathan Mahler of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump on Sunday renewed his call for the United States to consider profiling as a preventive tactic against terrorism in the aftermath of the mass shooting last week in Orlando, Fla. 'I hate the concept of profiling, but we have to start using common sense,' Mr. Trump ... said in an interview on CBS's 'Face the Nation.' Mr. Trump issued a similar call in December after the terrorist attack in San Bernardino, Calif...." -- CW

"What ... Trump Learned from Joe McCarthy's Right-Hand Man." Jonathan Mahler & Matt Flegenheimer of the New York Times: "[Roy] Cohn's influence on Mr. Trump is unmistakable. Mr. Trump's wrecking ball of a presidential bid -- the gleeful smearing of his opponents, the embracing of bluster as brand -- has been a Roy Cohn number on a grand scale. Mr. Trump's response to the Orlando massacre, with his ominous warnings of a terrorist attack that could wipe out the country and his conspiratorial suggestions of a Muslim fifth column in the United States, seemed to have been ripped straight out of the Cohn playbook." -- CW

Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "Supporters of Donald Trump got an unexpected [... 'emergency' ...] plea on Saturday: a request to send the billionaire money..., representing an urgent need for an infusion of $100,000 to put ads on the air in battleground states. Why Trump couldn't simply write a check to cover the costs apparently wasn't explained, but the missive ... demonstrates clearly the difficult position of the Trump campaign.... Not only are Trump's poll numbers slipping, they are at a low that no one, Republican or Democrat, has seen in the past three election cycles." -- CW ...

... Louis Nelson of Politico: Donald "Trump said in an interview that aired Sunday on NBC's 'Meet the Press' that he can win in November, with or without [Republican leaders'] support. '... It would be nice if the Republicans stuck together,' he said. 'I think that I win either way. I can win one way or the other.'" -- CW ...

... Amber Phillips of the Washington Post: "With a group of Republican delegates working to stop Donald Trump at next month's convention, House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) has given no indication that he plans to stop them. 'It's not my job to tell delegates what to do,' Ryan told NBC's Chuck Todd in an interview that aired Sunday on 'Meet the Press.' '... They write the rules. They make their decisions.'" -- CW ...

... Ed O'Keefe of the Washington Post: "Supporters of a growing anti-Donald Trump movement announced plans Sunday to raise money for staff and a possible legal defense fund as they asked new recruits to help spread the word with less than a month until the Republican National Convention." -- CW

The Mind of Donald Trump. Dan P. McAdams in The Altantic: "Narcissism, disagreeableness, grandiosity a psychologist investigates how Trump's extraordinary personality might shape his possible presidency." -- unwashed

Greg Clary of CNN: "Police arrested a 19-year-old man Saturday inside a Las Vegas theater where ... Donald Trump was holding a campaign rally after the man attempted to pull a police officer's gun from its holster during the event. Police said Michael Sandford struck up a conversation with a Las Vegas Metropolitan Police officer under the pretenses that he was seeking to get an autograph. During the conversation, police said Sandford tried to pull the officer's service weapon from its holster. Other officers also assigned to provide security at the event were quickly able to detain Sandford...." -- CW

Josh Gerstein & Maggie Severns of Politico: "Lawyers for Donald Trump are fighting claims that his Trump University real estate seminar program amounted to a racketeering operation under federal law. In a court filing Friday night, Trump's attorneys reject allegations in a federal class-action lawsuit that Trump University violated the Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act and that Trump was directly involved in those violations.... Trump is asking U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel to toss out the lawsuit, which is one of two pending class actions." -- CW

Despite MAG's negativity about MoDo's column on Cap'n. Trump (see yesterday's thread), Yastreblyansky, writing on No More Mister Nice Blog, is ever-so impressed with her abandoning the sinking yacht. -- CW

Paul Krugman: "The Republican establishment was easily overthrown because it was already hollow at the core. Donald Trump's taunts about 'low-energy' Jeb Bush and 'little Marco' Rubio worked because they contained a large element of truth. When Mr. Bush and Mr. Rubio dutifully repeated the usual conservative clichés, you could see that there was no sense of conviction behind their recitations. All it took was the huffing and puffing of a loud-mouthed showman to blow their houses down." Democrats, by contrast, believe what they say.

Beyond the Beltway

Texit. Adios, MoFos. Tom Dart of the Guardian: The Texas Nationalist Movement looks to Brexit for pointers on how to get Texans to vote for secession from the U.S. -- CW

Patrick Brennan & Cameron Knight of the Cincinnati Enquirer: "The owner of a Monroe Township[,Ohio,] gun shop was fatally shot Saturday afternoon when a student in a concealed carry permit class accidentally discharged a weapon, the Clermont County Sheriff's Office said. James Baker, 64, was shot in the neck and pronounced dead just before 1 p.m. at his KayJay Gun Shop..., the sheriff's office said in a news release. He was struck by a bullet that was fired by a class participant while practicing weapon malfunction drills." CW: This freak accident would not have been deadly if Baker had been the owner of the KayJay Smurf Ball Shop. ...

... Peter Holley of the Washington Post: A used-car dealer in Rochester, New Hampshire, is giving away AR-15s with certain auto sales. "The marketing campaign [-- "Buy a car, get an AR" --] was unveiled in May, but it has attracted new scrutiny in the wake of the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history.... [Owner Mike] Hagan, a combat veteran who served in Afghanistan, told NH1-TV that the gun sale is done in conjunction with a local firearms store that completes the required background checks.... Hagan told the station that the promotion has increased car sales. The Associated Press reported that Hagan has given away four AR-15s and one 9mm handgun, which Hagan also offers if customers decline the rifle." -- CW

Way Beyond

Nicholas Casey of the New York Times: In Venezuela, "a country with the largest oil reserves in the world, it is possible for people to riot because there is not enough food. In the last two weeks alone, more than 50 food riots, protests and mass looting have erupted around the country. Scores of businesses have been stripped bare or destroyed. At least five people have been killed. This is precisely the Venezuela its leaders vowed to prevent." -- CW

News Lede

Cleveland.com: "The Cleveland Cavaliers completed the unimaginable on Sunday night, a 93-89 Game 7 victory over the Golden State Warriors to win the franchise's first NBA championship.... LeBron James has delivered Cleveland's first professional championship in 52 years." -- CW