The Commentariat -- November 8, 2017
Late Morning Update:
The holidays come early to Reality Chex. Thanks, Patrick! (See today's Comments for context.)
James Hohmann of the Washington Post: "Tuesday was the best day for Democrats politically since Barack Obama won reelection in 2012.... Voters came out in droves. They braved the rain and the cold to send a message to President Trump. The results across the country represent nothing less than a stinging repudiation of Trump on the first anniversary of his election."
Cristiano Lima of Politico: "Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said Tuesday night his 'memory has been refreshed' regarding his email exchange with Carter Page in which the former foreign policy adviser requested Lewandowski's permission to travel to Moscow.... 'To the best of my recollection, I don't know Carter Page. To the best of my knowledge, Carter Page ... had no formal role in the campaign,' Lewandowski said. The former Trump campaign manager had similarly told Fox News in March that he 'never met Carter Page.'" Mrs. McC: Amazing what a paper trail will do.
Election Results:
Virginia. The New York Times has live election results here for the Virginia gubernatorial race. At 7:45 pm ET the race is neck-and-neck with 30 percent reporting. Wahoo! The AP has called the race for Democrat Ralph Northam at 8:15 pm ET. At 9:00 pm ET, the AP called the race for lieutenant governor for Democrat Justin Fairfax. Democrat Mark Herring, an incumbent, has won the attorney general's race. ...
... Jonathan Martin & Alexander Burns of the New York Times: "Lt. Gov. Ralph S. Northam, an understated physician and Army veteran, was elected governor of Virginia Tuesday, according to the Associated Press, overcoming a racially charged campaign by his Republican opponent and cementing Virginia's transformation into a reliably Democratic state largely immune to Trump-style appeals. Mr. Northam was propelled to victory over Ed Gillespie, the Republican nominee, by liberal and moderate voters who were eager to send a message to President Trump in a state that rejected him in 2016 and where he is deeply unpopular." ...
... The Sorest Loser. Ben Kamisar of the Hill: "President Trump blasted GOP gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie in a tweet Tuesday evening in an effort to distance himself from the Republican's losing effort in Virginia. Trump's tweet knocking Gillespie came shortly after news outlets called the race for Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, who looks to be on track for a comfortable victory. 'Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don't forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!' Trump said.... The tweet from Trump, who is in South Korea on a 13-day multination tour of Asia, came hours after reports emerged that he had recorded a late robocall urging Virginia voters to support Gillespie in the race, which has become a national flashpoint in politics." ...
... Patricia Sullivan of the Washington Post: "Virginia Democrats Justin Fairfax and Mark Herring won their hotly contested races for lieutenant governor and attorney general, respectively, on Tuesday, beating back strong challenges from two conservative Republicans and completing a sweep by their party at the top of the ticket." ...
... Antonio Olivo of the Washington Post: "Democrat Danica Roem ousted longtime incumbent Del. Robert G. Marshall (R) Tuesday, becoming the first openly transgender elected official in Virginia -- and one of very few in the nation. The race between Roem, 33, and Marshall, 73, focused on traffic and other local issues in Prince William County but also exposed the nation's fault lines over gender identity. It pitted a local journalist who began her physical gender transition four years ago against an outspoken social conservative who has referred to himself as Virginia's 'chief homophobe' earlier this year introduced a 'bathroom bill' that died in committee."
New Jersey. Brent Johnson of NJ.com: "Phil Murphy, a former Wall Street executive and diplomat with no previous elected experience but deep pockets and strong ties to the Democratic Party, beat Republican Kim Guadagno Tuesday to succeed Chris Christie as New Jersey's governor. CNN, ABC and NBC projected the win for Murphy at 8 p.m. Tuesday as the polls closed. The projection was based on exit polling. Murphy's victory over Guadagno, Christie's lieutenant governor, will usher in a new era of Democratic rule in the Garden State after eight years of Christie, a once-popular Republican who saw his approval rating plummet to historic lows.... When Murphy is sworn in Jan. 16, Democrats will control both the governor's office and the state Legislature for the first time since [Gov. Jon] Corzine's four-year term."
Washington State. Jennifer Bendery of the Huffington Post: "Democrat Manka Dhingra won Tuesday's special election to a Washington state Senate seat ― a race that most people wouldn't be paying attention to except that Dhingra just cemented her party's full control of the state government. Dhingra defeated Republican Jinyoung Lee Englund in a race that people poured millions of dollars into because of the significance of the seat. Democrats control the governorship and the state House in Washington, but until Tuesday, they've been one seat short of a majority in the Senate."
Georgia. Matt Yglesias of Vox: "As part of a larger wave of Democratic wins on Election Day 2017, Democrats picked up two seats in special elections held for Georgia's House of Delegates. Deborah Gonzales won House District 117 with 53 percent of the vote and Jonathan Wallace won House District 119 with 56 percent of the vote. Both seats are in the Athens area and both were vacant.... But not only were the two seats previously held by Republican incumbents, they were uncontested in the 2016 elections. Superior Democratic recruiting in these kind of races is both a cause and a consequence of a national political environment that is now Democratic leaning.... The uptick in recruiting is itself a result of Donald Trump's unpopularity. But it's also the case that no matter how unpopular Trump is, you can't win elections without fielding candidates."
New York. William Neuman & David Goodman of the New York Times: "Gliding to victory, Bill de Blasio was re-elected on Tuesday as the mayor of New York City, defeating his Republican challenger, Nicole Malliotakis, and a handful of independent candidates.... Mr. de Blasio, the first Democratic mayor to be re-elected in a generation, since Edward I. Koch captured his third term in 1985, now has four years to further his goal of reshaping the city in his progressive mold. But his ability to deliver may have far more to do with the winds blowing out of Washington and Albany than with circumstances in the five boroughs."
New Hampshire. Max Greenwood of the Hill: Democrat "Joyce Craig vanquished Republican incumbent Ted Gatsas in Manchester, N.H.'s closely watched mayoral race on Tuesday, making her the first woman to hold the position and putting a Democrat at the helm of the city for the first time in more than a decade. Craig won the race with 12,053 votes, while Gatsas had 10,580, according to vote tallies reported by WMUR-TV in Manchester. The race was the highest profile in the Granite State this year, pitting Gatsas, who has served as the city's mayor since 2010, against Craig, a former alderman, who unsuccessfully vied for the post in 2015."
North Carolina. Jim Morrill, et al., of the Charlotte Observer: "Casting herself as a unifier after two years of tumult, Democrat Vi Lyles easily defeated Republican Kenny Smith on Tuesday to become Charlotte's first African-American female mayor.... Despite being heavily outspent..., Lyles took about 58 percent to Smith'1s 42 percent in unofficial returns."
Massachusetts. AP: "Voters in Boston have re-elected Marty Walsh to a second term as mayor. Walsh defeated City Councilor Tito Jackson on Tuesday after a low-key campaign. Election officials reported relatively light voter turnout in most of the city's precincts in the nonpartisan contest."
Maine. Joe Lawlor of the Portland Press Herald: "A measure to expand Medicaid in Maine, which would give about 70,000 people health care coverage, held a solid and growing lead as votes were tallied Tuesday night. With more than 40 percent of Maine precincts reporting, the measure was favored by nearly 58 percent of the voters.... Maine is one of 19 states that has refused to expand Medicaid under the ACA and Gov. Paul LePage, a Republican, is a steadfast opponent who has vetoed five expansion bills that passed the Legislature." ...
... At 10:00 pm ET, the New York Times indicates a win for Medicaid expansion. The New York Times story, by Abby Goodnough, is here.
MEANWHILE, in Utah. Courtney Tanner of the Salt Lake Tribune: "... Provo Mayor John Curtis, a moderate Republican..., trounced an astonishingly well-funded Democrat [Kathie Allen] and a surprise third-party newcomer [Jim Bennett, son of the late three-term Sen. Bob Bennett] in the special election. He will serve the final year of former Rep. Jason Chaffetz's term after the congressman unexpectedly stepped down in June and joined Fox News as a contributor."
CBS News: "President Trump told North Korea to 'not underestimate us,' in a speech before the South Korea's National Assembly Wednesday morning local time. 'Do not underestimate us. Do not try us. We will defend our common security, our shared prosperity, and our sacred liberty,' Mr. Trump said. The president, who has softened his rhetoric on North Korea in recent days, urged other nations including Russia and China to sever economic ties with the rogue state. Mr. Trump, in the middle of his nearly two-week Asia trip, heads to Beijing next. 'The time for excuses is over,' Mr. Trump said. 'Now is the time for strength.'... Mr. Trump called North Korea, 'a country ruled as a cult' by Kim and his regime." ...
... Julie Davis, et al., of the New York Times: "President Trump, whose long-distance threats and insults toward North Korea have stoked fears of a nuclear confrontation, brought a message of reassurance to South Korea on Tuesday, moving to bolster an anxious ally as he came within 35 miles of one of the world's most dangerous borders. Gone were the threats to rain 'fire and fury' on North Korea and the derisive references to its leader, Kim Jong-un, as 'Little Rocket Man' as Mr. Trump said he saw progress in diplomatic efforts to counter the threat from the North, adding, 'Ultimately, it will all work out.' After a day of private meetings and public bonding with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, who was elected promising a shift toward dialogue with the North, Mr. Trump -- who as recently as last month tweeted that direct talks were a 'waste of time' -- said on Tuesday that it would be in the North's interest to 'come to the table and to make a deal.'" ...
... Andrew Restuccia of Politico: "... Donald Trump was forced to abandon a surprise, unscheduled trip to the demilitarized zone between North Korea and South Korea on Wednesday because of inclement weather. Trump and his team and a small group of reporters began the trek to the DMZ in a group of helicopters, but turned back about 25 minutes into the journey because of low visibility. The president and his aides waited for nearly an hour for the weather to clear before finally deciding to scrap the trip. South Korean President Moon Jae-in had planned to join Trump for the visit. The White House had asked journalists traveling with the president not to report on his movements until after he returned to Seoul for security reasons."
David Nakamura of the Washington Post: "President Trump on Tuesday asserted that tougher gun laws would not have stopped the mass shooting in Sutherland Springs, Tex., last weekend and that 'hundreds more' would have died had another man not been able to 'neutralize' the alleged killer with a gun of his own. Asked during a news conference here whether he would entertain 'extreme vetting' on guns, Trump appeared irritated by the question and suggested it was not appropriate to talk about 'in the heart of South Korea.'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: As many have pointed out, Trump's NRA rationale works only if you ignore the fact that the U.S. has more guns per person & more gun deaths than any other country. These are not two unrelated stats. ...
... Connor O'Brien of Politico: "... Donald Trump's pick to be the Pentagon's top health official today criticized as 'insane' a civilian's access to semi-automatic weapons like the one used Sunday in the Texas church shooting. 'I'd also like to -- and I may get in trouble with other members of the committee -- just say, you know, how insane it is that in the United States of America a civilian can go out and buy ... a semi-automatic assault rifle like an AR-15, which apparently was the weapon that was used,' Dean Winslow, a physician and retired Air Force colonel nominated to be the assistant secretary of Defense for health affairs, said during his Senate Armed Services confirmation hearing.... The statement drew a swift rebuke from the panel's chairman, John McCain (R-Ariz.). 'Dr. Winslow, I don't think that's in your area of responsibility or expertise,' McCain interjected." ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: Actually, Sen. Dr. Winslow there seems to be expressing the medical opinion that multiple gunshots are dangerous to one's health. ...
... Jordain Carney of the Hill: "The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on rules regulating firearm accessories and the national background check system in the wake of mass shootings in Texas and Las Vegas. Sen. Chuck Grassley's (R-Iowa) office announced on Tuesday that they will hold a hearing in one week on 'firearm accessory regulation and enforcing federal and state reporting to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS).' The formal announcement comes after a spokesman for the Iowa Republican told The Hill on Monday that the Senate panel would hold a hearing on bump stocks, a device that can simulate automatic gunfire with a semi-automatic weapon." Mrs. McC: A tiny crack in the NRA wall? ...
... Simon Romero, et al., of the New York Times: "The gunman behind the worst mass shooting in Texas history escaped from a psychiatric hospital while he was in the Air Force, and was caught a few miles away by the local police, who were told that he had made death threats against his superiors and tried to smuggle weapons onto his base, a 2012 police report showed. That episode, which came to light on Tuesday, was another in a series of red flags raised about the man, Devin P. Kelley, his instability and the threat he might pose to those around him. But none of the warnings stopped Mr. Kelley from legally purchasing several firearms, including the rifle he used to kill 26 people at the First Baptist Church of Sutherland Springs on Sunday."
Now it's time for America to bind the wounds of division, I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans, and this is so important to me. -- Donald Trump, in his victory speech, November 9, 2016, at about 3 am ...
... Jenna Johnson of the Washington Post: "... one year later, Trump finds himself the most unpopular president in modern times amid criticism that he has sought to divide more than unite. He has resumed his attacks on [Hillary] Clinton, barred most of those who criticized him during the campaign from working in his administration and seen rapid turnover in his White House. When he has felt under attack, he has aggressively punched back, going after members of his own party, media outlets, the intelligence community, the widow of a soldier killed in Niger, the cast of a Broadway show and minorities playing professional football who have knelt during the national anthem to protest racial inequality and police abuse. He has yet to introduce the sweeping infrastructure plan he promised or implement an economic plan.... He has repeatedly tried to implement bans on foreigners from several majority-Muslim countries, tried to get rid of the Affordable Care Act many of his supporters depend on for health insurance and commissioned prototypes for a massive wall along parts of the southern border despite a lack of funding."
Paige Cunningham of the Washington Post: "The government will give states broader leeway in running their Medicaid programs and allow them to impose work requirements on enrollees, a top federal health official said Tuesday in outlining how the Trump administration plans to put its mark on the insurance program for low-income Americans. Seema Verma, who heads the Health and Human Services Department's Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, did not spare criticisms of the Obama administration and called its opposition to work requirements soft bigotry.'"
Moscow on the Potomac. Lorraine Woellert, et al., of Politico: "A top adviser to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross served on the board of Navigator Holdings, a shipping company whose clients include a Russian energy company with Kremlin ties, while she was working in the Trump administration. Wendy Teramoto retained her seat on Navigator's board after joining Commerce in mid-March as a part-time adviser to Ross.... She also continued to serve as an executive of Ross's private equity firm WL Ross & Co. after becoming a government employee. Teramoto didn't resign her seat on Navigator's board until July 17, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. She left WL Ross that same month. On Aug. 1, she was formally named Ross's chief of staff. Her role with Navigator is notable because Ross has come under scrutiny after the release of a cache of documents ... that showed him profiting from investments in Navigator, which does significant business with Sibur, an energy company partly owned by Russian President Vladimir Putin's son-in-law." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Kevin Poulsen of the Daily Beast: "As U.S. polling places opened last Nov. 8, Russian trolls in St. Petersburg began a final push on Twitter to elect Donald Trump. They used a combination of high-profile accounts with large and influential followings, and scores of lurking personas established years earlier with stolen photos and fabricated backgrounds. Those sleeper accounts dished out carefully metered tweets and retweets voicing praise for Trump and contempt for his opponent, from the early morning until the last polls closed in the United States." ...
... Kyle Cheney & Elana Schor of Politico: "Attorney General Jeff Sessions will appear before the House Judiciary Committee next week, and Democrats said Tuesday they're prepared to pepper him with questions about a campaign adviser who attempted to broker a meeting between then-candidate Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Also linked yesterday.) ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: I hope the House members practice up on the pronunciation of "Papadopoulos," because so far on-air personalities have had difficulty -- I keep hearing "Poppolopolis," which sounds like candy on a stick. Anyway, should be some fun clips. Watch for the Elf's studied outrage.
The Big Cheese Stands Alone. Brady Dennis of the Washington Post: "President Trump has put America at odds with the rest of the world, literally, when it comes to the goal of combating climate change. At an international climate conference in Bonn on Tuesday, Syria announced its plans to join the Paris climate accord -- an agreement forged in 2015 for nations to band together to slash global carbon emissions. That now leaves the United States as the only country to disavow the deal, after Trump this year announced intentions to withdraw from the agreement." ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: But Trump sure showed that Obummer guy, didn't he?
"Perpetual War." Andrew Bacevich in the New Republic: "Since becoming president, [Trump] has largely ceded decision-making on the conduct of America's wars to the very generals he derided while running for office.... As with so many other aspects of the job, he occupies it on only an occasional basis and rarely with the requisite skill.... James Mattis, the general who fills the post of defense secretary; John Kelly, the general who is White House chief of staff; and H.R. McMaster, already the second general to serve Trump as national security advisor, are patriotic, seasoned, and not without intelligence. Yet they are military men, shaped by their decades of experience in uniform. They are, almost by definition, devoid of critical imagination.... The overarching, if unacknowledged, premise of the nation's military efforts remains what it has been ever since George W. Bush's grandiose, post -- September 11 dream of transforming the Islamic world collapsed: If we keep killing 'terrorists' in sufficient numbers, the jihadist threat will eventually subside.... Trump's generals have not devised a strategy to end a war, but an excuse for ensuring its further perpetuation.... This much is certain: With the commander-in-chief more or less AWOL, he won't be offering to bail them out. After all, it's their war, not his." ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: Oh, let's face it: war is good business for generals. Without war, they're the CEOs of nothing -- over-the-hill middle-aged men shuffling through the corridors of the Pentagon.
Lee Caldwell of NBC News: "... Donald Trump called 12 Senate Democrats Tuesday, hoping to sway them in favor of the Republican tax cut bill, and told them he would personally 'get killed' financially by the GOP bill. He said he would only benefit if it repealed the estate tax, according to multiple people who were present. 'My accountant called me and said 'you're going to get killed in this bill,'" the president said during a phone call from his trip in South Korea.... Many of those Democrats are from states Trump won in 2016. After the call with Trump ended, the meeting, which included his legislative affairs chief Marc Short and economics adviser Gary Cohn, turned into a sparring match between Democrats and White House officials over a politically broken Senate and who is to blame, multiple senators who attended the meeting said." ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: Either Trump's supposed accountant is a liar or Trump is. We can make an educated guess. ...
... Lyin' Ryan Sets a Record. Rachel Bade of Politico: "Paul Ryan vowed an end to the much-despised, top-down approach of his predecessor when he took the speaker's gavel in 2015, promising a House that's 'more open, more inclusive, more deliberative, more participatory.'... But two years later, the House Rules Committee, which is controlled by the speaker, just set a record for the most closed rules in a session -- barring lawmakers for the 49th time from offering amendments on a bill. Ryan has yet to allow a single piece of legislation to be governed by an open rule, which allows members to propose changes on the floor. That makes Ryan the only speaker in modern history to forgo the open process entirely so far, according to senior House Democratic sources. They argue such a strategy -- while politically expedient for Republicans eager to avoid toxic and divisive votes -- is bad for democracy because it stifles debate." ...
... Aargh! Rich People Made Me Do It! Cristina Marcos of the Hill: "A House Republican lawmaker acknowledged on Tuesday that he's facing pressure from donors to ensure the GOP tax-reform proposal gets done. Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) had been describing the flurry of lobbying from special interests seeking to protect favored tax provisions when a reporter asked if donors are happy with the tax-reform proposal. 'My donors are basically saying, "Get it done or don't ever call me again,"' Collins replied."
Dan Hopper, in the New Yorker, channels "Serious Conservative Writer Man": "Donald Trump is a boorish, uncouth embarrassment to the nation, and it's high time my colleagues in the Republican Party stood up to him once and for all: we must impeach this inurbane ruffian to restore the dignity of our party and our country. At which point, we can immediately resume doing the exact same things but, like, the regular way. Without bad tweets and stuff."
Juror a Little Hazy on the Basics. David Voreacos & Neil Weinberg of Bloomberg: "On their first full day of jury deliberations at the bribery trial of Senator Robert Menendez, a juror asked the judge a basic question: What is a senator? U.S. District Judge William Walls declined to answer the question, and he refused that juror's request for a transcript of Monday's closing argument by Menendez's attorney, Abbe Lowell. The panel had returned to the Newark, New Jersey, federal courthouse Tuesday after spending about 75 minutes deliberating the day before. Walls told jurors that they should rely on their individual and collective memories to determine how to define a senator."
Making America Great Again, via Bermuda Tax Havens. Ed Pilkington & Jon Swaine of the Guardian: "Seven Republican super-donors helped bankroll the conservative push for power in the 2016 election cycle, between them pumping more than $350m (£264m) into federal and state races. The Paradise Papers illuminate another aspect of these vastly wealthy men -- their propensity to nurture offshore some of their combined fortunes, estimated by Forbes at $142bn, largely beyond the reach of public scrutiny and tax authorities. The seven have their divisions, especially over Donald Trump. Warren Stephens was a major backer of the Stop Trump movement last year, while Geoff Palmer was among the then Republican nominee's biggest financial backers. But they share a presence in tax havens. In turn, they face a legitimate question as they wield influence by investing in Super Pacs with names including 'Rebuilding America now', 'Right to rise USA' and 'American unity': are their political principles undermined by their offshore practices?" The writers also name the Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson, Steve Wynn & Paul Singer. ...
...AND Jon Swaine of the Guardian: Steve Bannon "produced a book in May 2015 accusing Hillary Clinton of trading favours for donations to her charitable foundation.... But the financial arrangements of another foundation, which bankrolled Bannon's creation of the book, Clinton Cash, have received less scrutiny. Leaked documents and newly obtained public filings show how the billionaire Mercer family built a $60m war chest for conservative causes inside their family foundation by using an offshore investment vehicle to avoid US tax. The offshore vehicle was part of a network of companies in the Atlantic tax haven of Bermuda led by Robert Mercer, the wealthy hedge-fund executive and Bannon patron whose spending helped put Trump in the White House and aided a resurgence of the Republican right. Mercer, 71, appears as a director of eight Bermuda companies in the Paradise Papers...."
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