The Commentariat -- January 8, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Trump backed away from further military confrontation with Iran on Wednesday after a barrage of missiles fired at American troops killed no one and Tehran indicated that would be the end of its retaliation for the killing of a top general." Mrs. McC: Another one of the speeches Trump delivered in his "hostage" monotone. BTW, the brass who allowed themselves to be used as a shiny human backdrop for a speech that was bound to contains outrageous lies & misdirection (and of course it did) should be ashamed of themselves. Some of them managed to look like hostages, too, and that's probably how they felt. ~~~

~~~ Brad Reed of the Raw Story: "... Donald Trump's big speech about the situation in Iran is not getting strong early reviews, in no small part because he spent much of it blaming former President Barack Obama for the current tensions with Tehran."

Peter Beaumont, et al., of the Guardian: "Iran's aviation authority will not hand over flight recorders from the Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 jet that crashed moments after take-off from Tehran killing all 176 passengers and crew, either to the aircraft's manufacturer or US aviation authorities.... 'This accident will be investigated by Iran's aviation organisation but the Ukrainians can also be present during the incident's investigation,' [said Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation head Ali Abedzadeh].... Announcing on his Facebook page that Ukraine would send a team of experts to Iran later on Wednesday, the country's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said: 'Our priority is to establish the truth and those responsible for this terrible catastrophe.'" ~~~

~~~ U.K. Telegraph: "Ukraine has refused to rule out that the plane that crashed in Iran and killed all 176 on board was struck by a missile.... Mr Zelensky instructed Ukraine's prosecutors to open criminal proceedings over the crash." ~~~

~~~ Jeff Wise, in New York, explains why it seems likely the aircraft was shot down.

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New York Times live updates for Wednesday on developments in the Iran crisis are here.

"All Is Well." Really? Phil Helsel of NBC News: "'All is well!' ... Donald Trump tweeted Tuesday night after Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. The president also said he would make a statement Wednesday morning. 'Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!' the president tweeted." ~~~

~~~ MSNBC is reporting that Iran has said it won't launch new attacks if the U.S. does not retaliate. Mrs. McC: I can't find a print version of this, but the Guardian (@ 21:37 ET) has published a tweet from Iran's foreign minister Javad Zarif: "Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression." ~~~

~~~ ** Hamdi Alkhshali, et al., of CNN: "Iran launched more than a dozen missiles at two Iraqi bases that hold US troops in what appears to be retaliation for the American airstrike that killed a top Iranian general last week, the Pentagon said Tuesday. A US official told CNN that there were no initial reports of any US casualties, but an assessment of the impact of the strikes is underway. There are casualties among the Iraqis at Ain al-Asad airbase following the attack, an Iraqi security source tells CNN. The number of casualties and whether the individuals were killed or wounded was not immediately clear. White House aides are making plans for a possible address to the nation by ... Donald Trump, according to two officials." ~~~

~~~ ** New York Times Live Updates (Tuesday): "Iran attacked two American bases in Iraq early Wednesday, Iranian official news media and United States officials said, the start of what Iran had promised would be retaliation for the killing of a top Revolutionary Guards commander. 'The fierce revenge by the Revolutionary Guards has begun,' Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement on a Telegram channel. Iranian news media reported the attacks hours after the remains of the commander, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, were returned to his hometown in Iran for burial. Hossein Soleimani, the editor in chief of Mashregh, the main Revolutionary Guards news website, said that more than 30 ballistic missiles had been fired at the American base at Asad, in Anbar Province, in western Iraq. There were also rockets fired at an American base in Erbil, in northern Iraq." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: According to Richard Engel of NBC News, these are Iraqi bases that house American troops. Engel suggests that the attacks could make Iraq even more adamant about forcing the U.S. to "reposition" its troops to someplace not Iraq. More on this below.

Daniel Victor, et al., of the New York Times: "A Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 carrying 176 people on Wednesday crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing everyone on board. The circumstances of the crash are not fully known. The Iranian state news media cited technical problems on the plane, which was bound for Kyiv.... The disaster happened against the backdrop of the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which on Tuesday attacked two bases in Iraq that house American troops. It also has the potential to add to the crisis at Boeing, which has been dealing with the fallout from two crashes involving a different jet.... After the crash, Ukraine's Embassy in Iran initially issued a statement ruling out terrorism or a rocket attack as a cause of the crash. But the statement was later removed from the embassy's website and replaced by a statement saying it was too early to draw any conclusions about what had happened." A Reuters story is here.

Matt Stieb of New York: "On Tuesday, the president of the United States reluctantly walked back his threat to commit war crimes by bombing cultural sites in Iran. 'They are allowed to kill our people,' Trump said before reporters in the White House. 'They are allowed to maim our people, they're allowed to blow up everything that we have and there's nothing to stop them. We are, according to various laws, supposed to be very careful with their cultural heritage. And you know what, if that's what the law is, I like to obey the law.' Though that last point could be contested -- his career before politics suggests a businessman that does not like to obey the law -- his comment is a major backpedal from his Saturday threat to strike 52 cultural sites in Iran, one for each of the Americans held during the hostage crisis following the 1979 revolution. [On Sunday,] Trump even doubled down on the threat.... Trump's reversal on a topic he has expressed great interest in -- by pardoning and campaigning with accused U.S. war criminals and threatening to commit war crimes as a candidate in 2015 -- was likely influenced by pushback in his administration." ~~~

~~~ Brett Samuels & Morgan Chalfant of the Hill: "President Trump on Tuesday said he did not intend to quickly move troops from Iraq in his first lengthy comments about Middle East turbulence following the U.S. air strike that killed a top Iranian military general.... 'Eventually we want to be able to let Iraq run its own affairs, and that's very important. So at some point we want to get out. But this isn't the right point,' Trump told reporters during a meeting with the Greek prime minister Tuesday."

Nicole Gaouette & Jennifer Hansler of CNN: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday defended the basis for killing Iranian General Qasem Soleimani because of the threat of an imminent strike but declined to present any evidence, saying President Donald Trump's decision was 'entirely legal.'... Pompeo ... didn't offer any evidence of looming threats, but instead referred to past events that he said Soleimani was responsible for." The story will be updated. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Watch that POS lie to Andrea Mitchell about Trump's repeated threats to destroy Iran's cultural sites. Ken W. posited in today's comments that Pompouspeo is a chicken. Pompeo went on the teevee to prove it (again) today:

~~~ Pompeo's "Credibility Problem." Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a news conference Tuesday in which some believed that he walked back just how 'imminent' a threat Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani posed. Asked about the topic, Pompeo pretended journalists were too consumed with that word (even though Pompeo has used it). And then rather than shed new light, Pompeo opted to talk about what Soleimani had already done, before adding that Soleimani's campaigns could 'lead potentially to the death of many more Americans.'... Pompeo is an imperfect messenger taking the lead for a notoriously untruthful president.... He'll often be asked to account for the things Trump says and pretend that the mere question is ludicrous.... NBC's Andrea Mitchell asked Pompeo whether he would prevent Trump from [attacking Iran's cultural sites], and Pompeo pretended the question was ridiculous.... 'I was unambiguous on Sunday. It is completely consistent with what the president has said,' [Pompeo told Mitchell.] Except it's not. And the fact that Pompeo insists it is ... makes it difficult to take him at face value. Now is the time when something like that matters most." ~~~

~~~ ** This Is Mike's Mess. Edward Wong & Lara Jakes of the New York Times: "Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was the loudest voice in the administration pushing President Trump to kill Iran's most important general. This week, he is back in his role as the nation's top diplomat, trying to contain the international crisis the general's death created.... As Iran begins retaliating aggressively, Mr. Pompeo, 56, could become known as the man who helped lead the United States into another conflict in the Middle East -- breaking one of Mr. Trump's key campaign promises just as the president faces re-election.... Days after becoming secretary of state in 2018, Mr. Pompeo pushed Mr. Trump to withdraw from the nuclear agreement and reimpose strict sanctions on Iran.... In April, he advised Mr. Trump to designate as a foreign terrorist organization the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, an arm of the Iranian military that includes General Suleimani's elite Quds Force.... The upheaval is unfolding at a pace that Mr. Trump and top aides never expected, officials said. Millions of Iranians have taken to the streets to protest General Suleimani's killing -- a drastic change from only weeks ago, when demonstrators were denouncing the rulers in Tehran. European allies have expressed anger to Mr. Pompeo over the strike, which they were not told about in advance. And Mr. Pompeo has been unable to convince Iraq's government that the United States remains a reliable partner."

Mustafa Salim, et al., of the Washington Post: "The Iraqi government has interpreted a letter delivered by the U.S. military advising of a 'repositioning' of U.S. forces as a signal of an intent to withdraw, Iraqi officials said Tuesday, even as the Pentagon strenuously denied that any decision has been made to pull out of the country that has embroiled the U.S. military in conflict for most of the past 30 years. The letter delivered to the office of Iraq's caretaker prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, on Monday cited 'deference' to a vote in the Iraqi parliament calling on all foreign forces to leave by way of explaining an expected increase in U.S. helicopter activity over the Baghdad airport in the 'coming days and weeks.' The U.S. military wants 'to ensure that the movement out of Iraq is conducted in a safe and efficient manner,' the letter said. Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the letter a 'mistake' and a 'poorly worded' draft. U.S. military officials said such letters are routine, intended to keep their Iraqi counterparts abreast of intended U.S. troop movements to avoid misunderstandings." ~~~

~~~ Ron DePasquale of the New York Times: "NATO is removing some of the trainers who have been working with Iraqi soldiers battling the Islamic State, in the aftermath of the American killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani of Iran in Baghdad.The NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, announced on Monday that the training had been temporarily suspended. For the security of NATO personnel, the organization said in a statement that it would be taking precautions -- including 'the temporary repositioning of some personnel to different locations both inside and outside Iraq.'NATO, which has been running the training operation since 2018, will continue to maintain a presence in Iraq and remains committed to fighting international terrorism, an official said, while refusing to divulge details about troop movements." ~~~

~~~ Bruce Campion-Smith of the Toronto Star: "Canada is moving some of the troops deployed to help improve security in Iraq out of that country to ensure their safety amid rising regional tensions following Washington's targeted killing of a prominent Iranian general. Canada joined other allies such as Germany, Romania and Croatia in promising to shift personnel as concerns mounted over the threat of regional violence. Those fears were realized just hours after the plan was announced when Iran fired a barrage of missiles targeting U.S. and coalition forces at Iraqi military bases at at Al-Assad and Erbil." ~~~

~~~ Jeff Stein & Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post: "Senior administration officials have begun drafting sanctions against Iraq after President Trump publicly threatened the country with economic penalties if it proceeded to expel U.S. troops, according to three people briefed on the planning.... Such a step would represent a highly unusual move against a foreign ally that the United States has spent almost two decades and hundreds of billions of dollars supporting. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were discussing internal deliberations, emphasized talks were preliminary and no final decision has been made on whether to impose the sanctions." The Hill has a summary of the WashPo report. (Also linked yesterday.)

Lachlan Markay & Asawin Suebsaeng of The Daily Beast: "As President Trump grappled with how to respond to Iran throughout the last year, one of the people he turned to for advice was his personal attorney and unofficial envoy, Rudy Giuliani. The former New York City mayor has had a long-standing interest in Iranian affairs. He was once paid by organizations linked to an Iranian dissident group formally designated by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization -- until Giuliani helped get the outfit off the terror list.... As recently as the summer of 2018, Giuliani appeared on stage at an event for the People's Mojahedin of Iran, known by its Farsi acronym, MEK.... There's no indication that Giuliani plugged the MEK specifically in his discussions with the president, or that he's promoted specific military or foreign policy proposals. But Giuliani acknowledges that his beliefs fall on the aggressive end of the policy spectrum when it comes to Iran policy." --s

Mehdi Hasan of the Intercept explains Trump's Iran debacle -- s:

~~~ Daniel Nakamura & Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post: "President Trump has sought to demonstrate strong and decisive leadership in the targeted killing of Iran's top general, but he has overseen a chaotic and mistake-prone public response since the operation.... In the days after a U.S. military drone killed Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani near the Baghdad airport, Trump and his top advisers have refused to provide details of what prompted the decision to strike and offered conflicting accounts over whether Soleimani was coordinating imminent attacks on U.S. facilities in the Middle East. The lack of clear information continued late Tuesday in Washington, after Iran said it retaliated for Soleimani's death with missile attacks on military bases in Iraq. The White House announced Trump would make no public remarks in response Tuesday night, nor would any other senior administration officials. Hours later, Trump tweeted that he would address the nation Wednesday morning."

Eric Tucker of the AP: "The killing of a top Iranian general has ratcheted up the anxiety of families of Americans held in Iran, one month after the release of a New Jersey student had given them hope. The Trump administration has made a priority of bringing home hostages held abroad, but the prospect of a forthcoming resolution for the handful of captives in Iran seems to have dimmed with the two nations edging dangerously close to conflict and warning of retaliatory strikes and continued agitation." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Burgess Everett & Marianne Levine of Politico: "Senate Republican leaders are preparing to move forward on a set of impeachment trial rules without Democratic support. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is on the verge of having sufficient backing in his 53-member caucus to pass a blueprint for the trial that leaves the question of seeking witnesses and documents until after opening arguments are made, according to multiple senators. That framework would mirror the contours of President Bill Clinton's trial and ignore Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's demands for witnesses and new evidence." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: The reporters don't mention that during Clinton's impeachment trial, Ken Starr's witch hunt had got plenty of first-hand evidence, from Monica Lewinsky to Bill Clinton's deposition & DNA. Claiming the Trump rules "mirror" the Clinton rules is a crock when you figure in, as is necessary, Trump's forceful stonewall. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) Update: NPR ran exactly the same kind of report Tuesday afternoon; they made McConnell & Republicans seem fair & reasonable. ~~~

~~~ Olivia Beavers & Mike Lillis of the Hill: "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is leaning into her plans to withhold sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate, amplifying her position Tuesday that she won't deliver them until she knows what a trial in the upper chamber will look like. Pelosi, writing in a letter to her Democratic colleagues, called on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to promptly unveil the resolution that will lay out the guidelines for the trial centered on President Trump's contacts with Ukraine and whether they warrant his removal from office. The Democratic leader dug in on her plans to withhold the articles after McConnell announced at a press conference earlier in the day that Republicans 'have the votes' to pass a resolution to start the impeachment trial without requiring additional witnesses and key documents.... The Democratic leader also continued to hammer McConnell for his earlier remarks that he would be in 'total coordination' with the White House on strategy for the impeachment trial. ~~~

~~~ Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Tuesday that Democrats will force votes on witnesses at the start of the impeachment trial even as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has secured enough support to delay the decision until mid-trial. 'Make no mistake, on the question of witnesses and documents, Republicans may run but they can't hide. There will be votes at the beginning on whether to call the four witnesses we've proposed and subpoena the documents we've identified,' Schumer said.... McConnell wants to pass two resolutions: The first, at the outset of the trial, would only deal with the rules. The Senate could then pass a second resolution, after opening arguments and questions from senators, that would determine which, if any, witnesses will be called."

Josh Gerstein & Darren Samuelsohn of Politico: "Federal prosecutors on Tuesday called for up to six months of prison time for Michael Flynn, arguing that the former Trump national security adviser's shift to a more combative defense strategy shows he's no longer exhibiting the remorse he did when he pleaded guilty in 2017 to a felony charge of lying to the FBI. The notable shift in the Justice Department's stance comes after it initially said it was open to a sentence of probation as Flynn's punishment when he was cooperating with government investigators in special counsel Robert Mueller's sprawling investigation of ties between Donald Trump's campaign and Russia.... After providing the government significant help -- participating in 19 interviews with the Mueller team and other Justice Department prosecutors -- he reversed course by hiring a new team of lawyers, who have tried without success to get the initial case dismissed." The New York Times story is here.

Jim Mustian & Alan Suderman of the AP: "Federal prosecutors on Tuesday charged a major donor to ... Donald Trump's inaugural committee with obstructing a federal investigation into whether foreign nationals unlawfully contributed to the inaugural celebrations. The donor, Imaad Zuberi, recently pleaded guilty in a separate case in Los Angeles to campaign finance violations, tax evasion and failing to register as a foreign agent. A criminal information filed Tuesday in Manhattan federal court accuses Zuberi, a globe-trotting Los Angeles venture capitalist, of taking' numerous steps' to interfere with the investigation into where the inaugural committee received its funding. Prosecutors say Zuberi backdated a $50,000 check and also deleted emails. Zuberi, a prolific fundraiser who has also donated large sums to Democrats, gave $900,000 to Trump's inaugural committee in the months after the president's 2016 election. The criminal complaint says that donation 'was in fact funded using money obtained from other sources,' including a would-be inaugural donor The Associated Press has identified as Murat Guzel, a Turkish-American businessman who has ties to the administration of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan [and is a member of the Democratic National Committee]." Mrs. McC: Looks like the only kind of "convictions" these guys are likely to have are the ones that may land them in jail.

** Frank Rich, in a long New York essay on the fate of Vichy Republicans: "... Trump collaborators are kidding themselves if they think that post-Trump image-laundering through 'good works' or sheer historical amnesia will cleanse their names of the Trump taint as easily as his residential complexes in Manhattan have shed their Trump signage. A century of history -- and not just American history -- says otherwise.... The stench of disrepute that will cling to Trump's collaborators is likely to exceed the posthumous punishment of Nixon's dead-enders for the simple reason that Nixon's White House horrors weren't in the same league."

Presidential Race

Quint Forgey of Politico: "The chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Tom Perez, said on Tuesday that the party organization would reschedule next week's presidential primary debate in Iowa if the televised event conflicts with ... Donald Trump's impeachment trial in the Senate."

Alex Kantrowitz of BuzzFeed News: "... Donald Trump’s reelection campaign is wasting little time capitalizing on the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Just three days after the death of the head of Iran's Quds Force, the president's reelection campaign began to run hundreds of ads praising Trump for ordering the killing -- a decision that had been declined by presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama."

Alex Isenstadt of Politico: "... Donald Trump's reelection campaign is planning to drop $10 million to advertise during the Super Bowl, the start of a massive election-year spending spree that will intensify over the coming months, according to four people briefed on the plans. The campaign has purchased 60 seconds of commercial time during the Feb. 2 Super Bowl, which is likely to be the most-watched television event of the year. The ad or ads -- it's unclear whether it will be a single 60-second spot or a pair of 30-second commercials -- are expected to run early in the game, when viewership is likely to be at its highest."

Presidential Race 2024. In case you are a fan of Nikki Haley, Ed Kilgore of New York -- with a little help from Aaron Blake & Philip Bump of the Washington Post -- will disabuse you of your admiration for that sweet-faced harridan. ~~~

~~~ Jill Filipovic in a CNN opinion piece: "How much has Trumpism broken the GOP? Just look at Nikki Haley.... On Fox News Monday, Haley made the despicable claim that Democratic leaders and Democratic candidates for president are 'the only ones that are mourning the loss of Soleimani,' the leader of Iran's Quds Force who was killed by a Trump-ordered attack. Never mind that there's no evidence -- not one iota -- for this claim. Not a single Democratic leader, candidate or other politician, 'mourned' Soleimani or expressed sadness over the man's death. To the contrary: They nearly to a one noted that he was a vicious actor, a man with the blood of thousands on his hands. But they also did what real stateswomen and men are supposed to do: Analyze the full picture."

Melanie Zanona of Politico: "Rep. Duncan Hunter will officially step down from Congress next week, more than a month after the California Republican pleaded guilty to conspiracy to misuse campaign funds. Hunter had previously said he would leave Congress after the holidays. His resignation will take effect Jan. 13, according to a copy of the letter he sent to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Tuesday.... Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) does not have to call a special election because the nomination period has closed and it's an election year, raising the prospect that the seat could remain vacant for the rest of 2020."

Michael Sainato of the Guardian: "A December 2019 poll conducted by Gallup found 25% of Americans say they or a family member have delayed medical treatment for a serious illness due to the costs of care, and an additional 8% report delaying medical treatment for less serious illnesses.... Despite millions of Americans delaying medical treatment due to the costs, the US still the most on healthcare of any developed nation in the world, while covering fewer people and achieving worse overall health outcomes.... A 2009 study conducted by researchers at Harvard Medical School found 45,000 Americans die every year as a direct result of not having any health insurance coverage. In 2018, 27.8 million Americans went without any health insurance for the entire year." --s

The Image of Innocence. Monica Hesse of the Washington Post: "A black SUV pulled to the curb [in front of a Manhattan courthouse Monday], and as Harvey Weinstein emerged from the passenger side, his metal walker was fetched from the back. An assistant hastened it over to the disgraced movie mogul, who then began his hunched shuffle past photographers. The walker's legs were inserted into yellow tennis balls, which -- and here seems like an appropriate place to mention that Weinstein's films were often celebrations of costume design and attention to detail -- looked dingy. Weinstein had back surgery last month. It's entirely possible that the walker was necessary to his recovery (before the surgery, critics noted that he used the walker for public court appearances, but appeared to walk unaided when privately shopping).... When Weinstein arrived for the opening of his highly anticipated trial, he'd assembled a meticulous wardrobe for a specific character: a weakened man.... Weinstein's career was about accruing power. His alleged crimes were about abusing it. And his defense is about erasing it, a special effect communicating that he's either too broken to punish or, possibly, to have committed the crimes in the first place." See also Patrick's comment in yesterday's thread.

Beyond the Beltway

Arizona, etc. Thankfully, He's a Republican. Jacques Billeaud of the AP: "An elected official in metro Phoenix resigned Tuesday, months after being charged with running a human smuggling operation that paid pregnant women from the Marshall Islands to give up their babies in the U.S. The resignation of Maricopa County Assessor Paul Petersen came after leaders in the one of the nation's most populous counties suspended and pressured him to resign after his arrest nearly three months ago. The county's governing board voted in late December to start the process of removing Petersen, who also works as an adoption attorney. He is accused of illegally paying women from the Pacific island nation to come to the United States to give up their babies in at least 70 adoption cases in Arizona, Utah and Arkansas over three years. Citizens of the Marshall Islands have been prohibited from traveling to the U.S. for adoption purposes since 2003.... Authorities say the women who went to Utah to give birth received little or no prenatal care. They also said Petersen and his associates took passports from the pregnant women while they were in the U.S. to assert more control over them.... Petersen previously rejected calls to resign and was fighting his 120-day unpaid suspension. Thousands of files related to his adoption business were discovered on his government laptop, cementing the board's push to remove him. Content recovered on the laptop included text messages of pregnant women being threatened when they changed their minds about giving up their newborns." The Arizona Republic story is here. ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: In case you're wondering how Petersen came up with this deplorable enterprise, the AP has the answer: "As a member of The Church of Jesus Christs of Latter-day Saints, he completed a proselytizing mission in the Marshall Islands...." Divine!

The Commentariat -- January 7, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Nicole Gaouette & Jennifer Hansler of CNN: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday defended the basis for killing Iranian General Qasem Soleimani because of the threat of an imminent strike but declined to present any evidence, saying President Donald Trump's decision was 'entirely legal.'... Pompeo ... didn't offer any evidence of looming threats, but instead referred to past events that he said Soleimani was responsible for." The story will be updated. ~~~

~~~ Watch that POS lie to Andrea Mitchell about Trump's repeated threats to destroy Iran's cultural sites. Ken W. posited in today's comments that Pompouspeo is a chicken. Pompeo went on the teevee to prove it (again) today:

Jeff Stein & Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post: "... administration officials have begun drafting sanctions against Iraq after President Trump publicly threatened the country with economic if it proceeded to expel U.S. troops, according to three people briefed on the planning.... Such a step would represent a highly unusual move against a foreign ally that the United States has spent almost two decades and hundreds of billions of dollars supporting. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were discussing internal deliberations, emphasized talks were preliminary and no final decision has been made on whether to impose the sanctions." The Hill has a summary of the WashPo report.

Eric Tucker of the AP: "The killing of a top Iranian general has ratcheted up the anxiety of families of Americans held in Iran, one month after the release of a New Jersey student had given them hope. The Trump administration has made a priority of bringing home hostages held abroad, but the prospect of a forthcoming resolution for the handful of captives in Iran seems to have dimmed with the two nations edging dangerously close to conflict and warning of retaliatory strikes and continued agitation."

Burgess Everett & Marianne Levine of Politico: "Senate Republican leaders are preparing to move forward on a set of impeachment trial rules without Democratic support. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is on the verge of having sufficient backing in his 53-member caucus to pass a blueprint for the trial that leaves the question of seeking witnesses and documents until after opening arguments are made, according to multiple senators. That framework would mirror the contours of President Bill Clinton’s trial and ignore Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's demands for witnesses and new evidence." Mrs. McC: The reporters don't mention that during Clinton's impeachment trial, Ken Starr's witch hunt had got plenty of first-hand evidence, from Monica Lewinsky to Bill Clinton's deposition & DNA. Claiming the Trump rules "mirror" the Clinton rules is a crock when you figure in, as is necessary, Trump's forceful stonewall.

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Allan Smith of NBC News: "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., announced the House will vote soon on a war powers resolution to limit ... Donald Trump's military actions after he ordered the killing of a top Iranian general last week, escalating tensions with Tehran. 'Last week, the Trump administration conducted a provocative and disproportionate military airstrike targeting high-level Iranian military officials,' Pelosi said in a letter to colleagues Sunday. 'This action endangered our servicemembers, diplomats and others by risking a serious escalation of tensions with Iran. As members of Congress, our first responsibility is to keep the American people safe,' she continued. 'For this reason, we are concerned that the administration took this action without the consultation of Congress and without respect for Congress’s war powers granted to it by the Constitution.' She said the House resolution is similar to one introduced in the Senate by Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Sarah Ruiz-Grossman of the Huffington Post: "The Trump administration blocked Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's top diplomat, from entering the United States, Foreign Policy reported Monday. The diplomat planned to come to the U.S. to address the United Nations Security Council in a meeting on Jan. 9, when he was expected to speak on the assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani by the U.S. Unnamed diplomatic sources ... said [the move] violates a 1947 agreement with the U.N. that the U.S. allow foreign officials into the country for U.N. affairs. A Trump administration official called U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres on Monday to tell him Zarif would not be allowed in, a source told Foreign Policy.... The Iranian mission to the U.N. told HuffPost that, as of late Monday, it had not yet received 'any official word' from the U.S. or U.N. on Zarif’s visa." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: A great way to garner more sympathy for Iran. Shades of Rudy, but worse. New York Times (Oct. 25, 1995): "A day after Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani expelled Yasir Arafat from a concert for world leaders at Lincoln Center, the Clinton Administration sharply criticized the Mayor yesterday for what Washington officials called an embarrassing breach of international diplomacy. Mr. Giuliani, clearly relishing the controversy, insisted that he could never forgive and play host to Mr. Arafat even though the Palestinian leader has been embraced as a peacemaker by the Israeli and United States Governments." ~~~

~~~ Mike Baker & Caitlin Dickerson of the New York Times: "More than 100 people of Iranian descent appear to have [been detained by Customs & Border Protections agents] at Washington [state]'s border with Canada over the weekend, a process Gov. Jay Inslee described on Monday as the inappropriate 'detention' of people -- some of them United States citizens — who had done nothing wrong.... Border agents often require people seeking admittance at the border to undergo a process known as secondary screening -- which appears to have occurred in Washington, and in lesser numbers at other ports of entry. An agency official told members of Congress on Monday that leaders in local offices had been 'asked to remain vigilant and increase their situational awareness given the evolving threat environment.' A half-dozen people of Iranian descent who were held for additional questioning in Washington described extensive questioning about their family and background.... Legal advocates at a Monday news conference in Seattle described several cases of travelers being questioned about their feelings about the United States and what was happening in Iran.”

Oops! They Really Don't Know WTF They're Doing. Lolita Baldor & Robert Burns of the AP: “For a few tense hours Monday, the United States appeared to have announced that American troops were pulling out of Baghdad after nearly 17 years.... 'Here's the bottom line, this was a mistake,' Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said as he tried to unravel a knot of miscommunication.... The bungled message started when a draft letter from Marine Brig. Gen. William Seely began circulating on social media. Addressed to an official at the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, the letter said U.S. troops would be 'repositioning forces' to prepare for 'onward movement.' Seely added, 'We respect your sovereign decision to order our departure.' The 'order' Seely mentioned was a reference to the Iraqi parliament's vote over the weekend to expel U.S. troops after an American drone attack killed a top Iranian general in Baghdad. A flurry of news reports followed Seely’s letter, saying the United States was ending its military presence in Iraq. But after a few hours of denials and frantic phone calls, top Pentagon leaders tried to do damage control, stating flatly that the U.S. had no plans to leave and saying the letter was a poorly worded draft that never should have gone out. 'Nobody's leaving,' Milley said. 'There's no onward movement. Honest mistake.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Maybe Milley should say the same thing about the assassination of Suleimani: "POTUS* is an idiot. Didn't mean to kill anybody. Honest mistake.” ~~~

     ~~~ Update. According to Rachel Maddow, the letter was not just "circulating on social media." It was delivered to Iraq's defense minister. Here's how the AP report puts it: "It's not entirely clear who leaked the letter. According to Milley, the draft was circulated to key Iraqi officials as part of a coordination process to let them know about ... increased helicopter movements. Officials say it was first posted on the website of an Iranian-backed militia group." Here's a photo of the letter.

Farnaz Fassihi & David Kirkpatrick of the New York Times: "In the tense hours following the American killing of a top Iranian military commander, the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made a rare appearance at a meeting of the government's National Security Council to lay down the parameters for any retaliation. It must be a direct and proportional attack on American interests, he said, openly carried out by Iranian forces themselves, three Iranians familiar with the meeting said Monday. It was a startling departure for the Iranian leadership. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Tehran had almost always cloaked its attacks behind the actions of proxies it had cultivated around the region."

New York Times live updates (Tuesday): "Iranian state-run news outlets reported a deadly stampede during the funeral procession for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani in his hometown, Kerman, in southeastern Iran, on Tuesday. Millions were reported to have flooded the town's streets to witness the procession for the general.... At least 35 may have been killed, one news service reported, according to The Associated Press.... The general's body had been flown to Kerman after a funeral in Tehran on Monday that had brought even bigger crowds into the streets of the Iranian capital." An AP story is here. ~~~

~~~ New York Times live updates (Monday): "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wept and offered prayers over the coffin of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani at the funeral in Tehran on Monday, as throngs of people filled the city's streets to mourn.... Ayatollah Khamenei had a close relationship with the general, who was widely considered to be the second most powerful man in Iran. The military commander was hailed as a martyr, and his successor swore revenge during the funeral ceremony, while chants of 'Death to America' rang out from the crowds in the capital." An AP story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Nasser Karimi & Jon Gambrell of the AP: "The funeral for Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani drew a crowd said by police to be in the millions in the Iranian capital, filling thoroughfares and side streets as far as the eye could see. Although there was no independent estimate, aerial footage and Associated Press journalists suggested a turnout of at least 1 million, and the throngs were visible on satellite images of Tehran taken Monday."

AFP: "The US killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was meant to cripple Tehran's clout in the Middle East, but analysts see the allies of the Islamic Republic closing rank instead."

Peter Baker of the New York Times: "For three years, President Trump's critics have expressed concern over how he would handle a genuine international crisis, warning that a commander in chief known for impulsive action might overreach with dangerous consequences. In the angry and frenzied aftermath of the American drone strike that killed Iran's top general, with vows of revenge hanging in the air, Mr. Trump confronts a decisive moment that will test whether those critics were right or whether they misjudged him. 'The moment we all feared is likely upon us," Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut and vocal critic of Mr. Trump, wrote on Twitter over the weekend. 'An unstable President in way over his head, panicking, with all his experienced advisers having quit, and only the sycophantic amateurs remaining. Assassinating foreign leaders, announcing plans to bomb civilians. A nightmare.'... [Trump] faces enormous skepticism from the critics who have long warned that he was too erratic to face moments of crisis.... [But] And some experts on the [Mideast] region suggested that Mr. Trump's very unpredictability was a deterrent in itself...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: What Baker doesn't acknowledge is that this is a crisis of Trump's own making: first, by cancelling the nuclear deal with Iran, then by imposing crippling sanctions on Iran, then by overreacting to the murder of a U.S. contractor by making multiple strikes on militia sites, then by overreacting to protesters' attacks on the U.S. embassy in Tehran by assassinating Suleimani. So we already know how Trump "responds" to a crisis: (1) he creates it, and (2) he makes it worse & worse. ~~~

~~~ Paul Krugman: "... Trump's latest attempt to bully another country has backfired -- just like all his previous attempts. From his first days in office, Trump has acted on the apparent belief that he could easily intimidate foreign governments.... That is, he imagined that he faced a world of Lindsey Grahams, willing to abandon all dignity at the first hint of a challenge. But this strategy keeps failing; the regimes he threatens are strengthened rather than weakened, and Trump is the one who ends up making humiliating concessions.... Under his leadership, we've become nothing more than a big, self-interested bully.... Trump officials seem taken aback by the uniformly negative consequences of the Suleimani killing.... But that's what happens when you betray all your friends and squander all your credibility." ~~~

~~~ Michelle Goldberg of the New York Times: "After three harrowing years, we've reached the point many of us feared from the moment Donald Trump was elected. His decision to kill Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, Iran's second most important official, made at Mar-a-Lago with little discernible deliberation, has brought the United States to the brink of a devastating new conflict in the Middle East.... The administration has said that the killing of Suleimani was justified by an imminent threat to American lives, but there is no reason to believe this.... The Washington Post reported that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- who last year agreed with a Christian Broadcasting Network interviewer that God might have sent Trump to save Israel from the 'Iranian menace' -- has been pushing for a hit on Suleimani for months.... It's hard to see how this ends without disaster."

Peter Baker & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper ... on Monday [ruled] out military attacks on cultural sites in Iran if the conflict with Tehran escalates further, despite President Trump's threat to destroy some of the country's treasured icons. Mr. Esper acknowledged that striking cultural sites with no military value would be a war crime, putting him at odds with the president, who insisted such places would be legitimate targets.... 'We will follow the laws of armed conflict,' Mr. Esper said at a news briefing at the Pentagon when asked if cultural sites would be targeted as the president had suggested over the weekend. When a reporter asked if that meant 'no' because the laws of war prohibit targeting cultural sites, Mr. Esper agreed. 'That's the laws of armed conflict.'" The AP story is here. Mrs. McC: Note how Esper evades a direct answer, even as -- when pressed -- he goes further than Pompeo did Sunday when asked the same question. The correct answer to the first question is "POTUS* is an idiot. Of course the U.S. doesn't target cultural sites. We aren't gonna do it." ~~~

~~~ Lara Jakes of the New York Times: "More than 2,300 years ago, the Persian capital of Persepolis was burned by a foreign warrior in a fatal blow to the empire and its rich heritage. The ruins of the ancient city, in modern-day southwest Iran, could now be on President Trump's target list of 52 sites he has threatened to attack as tensions escalated between Washington and Tehran.... But the targeting of cultural sites is against international law, and critics denounced Mr. Trump for his statement.... The United States is a signatory to a 1954 international agreement to protect cultural property in armed conflict. Violating it attacks on Iran's historical sites would represent a huge turnabout. The United States was among the harshest critics of the Islamic State's destruction of antiquities in Mosul, Iraq, and Palmyra, Syria, as well as the Taliban's obliteration of the Bamiyan Buddhas in Afghanistan in 2001.... By Sunday, under the hashtag #IranianCulturalSites, a Twitter campaign cropped up in the form of history buffs taking verbal aim at Mr. Trump's threat." See also unwashed's commentary below. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Rick Noack of the Washington Post: "By suggesting strikes on '52 Iranian sites,' including some that are important to 'the Iranian culture,' Trump threatened a way of waging war that has drawn growing outrage in decades, critics argued Monday.... 'Targeting civilians and cultural sites is what terrorists do. It's a war crime,' tweeted Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In Britain, a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned that 'there are international conventions in place which prevent the destruction of cultural heritage.'... In March 2017 -- only weeks after Trump's inauguration -- the U.N. Security Council, with the United States as a permanent member, unanimously adopted a resolution condemning the 'unlawful destruction of cultural heritage, inter alia destruction of religious sites and artefacts' in armed conflicts.... But with a U.S. president now threatening to attack cultural sites in Iran, the narrative that the United States helped to advance now appears in doubt." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ John Bellinger in Lawfare: "On Sunday, Jan. 5, President Trump -- as he is wont to do when criticized — doubled down on his threat to bomb Iranian cultural sites if Iran attacks the United States in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. Although the United States is not a party to the Rome Statute, which makes intentional attacks on historic monuments a war crime, the United States is a party to the 1954 Hague Convention on Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict, which the Senate approved in September 2008, when I was legal adviser.... Trump and Vice President Mike Pence should learn the domestic and international law rules that govern the use of military force and the conduct of military operations and to understand why they are important." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Chait: "The unfolding Iran adventure seems to open once again the question of what principle, if any, defines this president's foreign policy. Isolationism? Nationalism? Whatever Fox News is demanding at any given moment? His real North Star is in fact an idea he has explicated many times, but -- perhaps because it is so horrifying -- even his critics seem hesitant to accept as a true motivation. Trump's plan is to collapse the moral space between America and its enemies.... Our enemies are stronger and tougher, [Trump believes,] willing to do the hard things that mut be done in order to win. To defeat them, we must become like them. Trump has long dismissed respect for human rights, international law, and innocent life as a form of political correctness.... The protective cordon surrounding Trump has eroded as his first term draws to a close, and it would be foolish to assume [aides] will necessarily succeed in stopping his latest unthinkable act.... From [his] premise that the authoritarians of the world are strong and correct, and its (small-d) democrats are politically correct fools, his broader recasting of America's alliances makes perfect sense. Of course he would draw the United States closer to Russia, the Gulf States, and the emerging autocrats of Europe...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

** Wild Card. Nicholas Fandos & Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "John R. Bolton, the former White House national security adviser, said on Monday that he was willing to testify at President Trump's impeachment trial if he was subpoenaed. 'I have concluded that, if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify,' Mr. Bolton said in a statement on his website. The development is a dramatic turn in the impeachment proceeding, which has been stalled over Democrats' insistence on hearing from critical witnesses Mr. Trump blocked from testifying in the House inquiry.... Mr. Bolton is a potential bombshell of a witness, with crucial knowledge of the president's actions and conversations regarding Ukraine that could fill out key blanks in the narrative of the impeachment case. His willingness to tell the Senate what he knows ratchets up pressure on Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, who has refused to commit to calling witnesses at the impeachment trial, to change his stance. It is unclear how the White House will respond to Mr. Bolton's declaration, but his statement strongly suggested that he would testify regardless of whether Mr. Trump sought to prevent him." Politico's story is here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Like me, Ed Kilgore of New York is not all that convinced that John Bolton would be the great game-changer some prognosticators anticipate. Kilgore: "For all we know, this career-long defender of presidential power may share the White House's view opposing disclosure of virtually any communication between the president and his staff. And even if he throws shade at some of his rivals on that staff, or joins many Trump defenders willing to throw Rudy Giuliani totally under the bus, it's a big leap from there to 'Trump's removal from office.' You may be wondering why Bolton suddenly decided to testify after deferring to the courts to determine whether a House subpoena would persuade him to testify. It's likely because any Senate subpoena would actually be signed by the Senate trial's presiding officer, the chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, and no inferior federal judge would be likely to brush that aside." ~~~

~~~ Marianne Levine & John Bresnahan of Politico: "Despite John Bolton's willingness to testify about the Ukraine scandal, the GOP-controlled Senate has no immediate plans to subpoena him in ... Donald Trump's impeachment trial -- a win for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the White House. While Democrats have called for testimony from Trump's former national security adviser, so far there's no sign that they will secure support from four Republicans they would need to follow through on their demand.... On Monday, [GOP Sens. Susan] Collins and [Lisa] Murkowski both signaled they wanted to begin the trial first. 'I believe that the Senate should follow the precedent that was established in the trial of President Clinton,' Collins said, echoing McConnell's argument. 'I think that we will decide at that stage who we need to hear from.'... Even vulnerable Republicans, such as Cory Gardner of Colorado, who faces a competitive reelection race in 2020, expressed no interest in hearing from Bolton." ~~~

~~~ Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said on Monday that he wants to hear from John Bolton after the former White House national security adviser offered to testify in President Trump's impeachment trial if subpoenaed. Romney told reporters ... that he wants to hear from Bolton and find out 'what he knows' about Trump's dealings with Ukraine." ~~~

~~~ Jordain Carney: "Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said on Monday that she supports delaying a decision on which, if any, witnesses should testify until after the start of President Trump's impeachment trial. With that decision Murkowski aligns herself with the process advocated by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and bolsters the chances that Republicans -- absent an 11th hour deal with Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) -- will be able to force through their own impeachment rules. 'I think we need to do what they did the last time they did this ... and that was to go through a first phase, and then they reassessed after that,' Murkowski told reporters after leaving McConnell's office." Mrs. McC: My, it does sound as if Mitch is a very good arm-twister. ~~~

~~~ Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post: "Facts subsequent to the House impeachment have become known that directly pertain to Trump's conduct and, to boot, a critical witness is now suddenly available. Do Senate Republicans try to sweep all that under the rug, risking that Bolton will later tell his story publicly and incriminate a president whose misdeeds the Senate helped cover up?... House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is in the driver's seat because she wisely held up the articles of impeachment. She can now turn to the Senate and say: Agree upon rules for the trial that guarantee Bolton's and other key witnesses' appearance or we will hold on to the articles and subpoena Bolton ourselves.... It is now time for all of them, including Bolton, [Mick] Mulvaney, Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Office of Management and Budget official Michael Duffey ... and White House national security aide Robert Blair ... to do their civic duty and step forward. Moreover, it's time for senators to do their duty and uphold their oaths as senators and as jurors."

Maybe This Guy Wants to Testify, Too. Wesley Morgan & Connor O'Brien of Politico: "Eric Chewning, chief of staff to Defense Secretary Mark Esper, is stepping down at the end of the month, the latest in a series of high-profile civilians to leave the Pentagon. He'll be replaced by Jen Stewart, the top Republican staffer on the House Armed Services Committee and a former top adviser to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, according to a statement from Pentagon spokeswoman Alyssa Farah.... Chewning was featured in a recently released trove of unredacted emails that show Pentagon officials' concerns with the legality of White House moves this summer to hold up military assistance to Ukraine, an issue at the center of ... Donald Trump's impeachment.... Chewning ... wrote that a memo to OMB, which warned that the Ukraine aid was in danger of not being fully spent by the end of the fiscal year, will have to wait until after a September meeting between Vice President Mike Pence and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Poland. 'We expect the issue to get resolved then,' he wrote to [acting Pentagon comptroller Elaine] McCusker." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Rachel Maddow is interested in knowing what-all pence was going to tell Zelensky that would "resolve the issue." And it makes me wonder how it's possible that pence, who was tasked with getting the issue with Zelensky resolved, also "was unaware of Trump's efforts to press Zelensky for damaging information about Biden and his son.... Officials close to Pence contend that he traveled to Warsaw for a meeting with Zelensky on Sept. 1 probably without having read -- or at least fully registered -- the transcript of Trump's July 25 call with the leader of Ukraine. White House officials said that Pence probably would have received the detailed notes of the president's call in his briefing book on July 26. The five-page document also should have been part of the briefing materials he took with him to Warsaw to prepare for the meeting...." That's the wholly improbable cover story pence aides gave the WashPo. It's as if Pheidippides ran from Athens to Sparta but didn't deliver the message because it hadn't "fully registered." (As it happens, the Spartans were a lot like Zelensky: they got the message but they didn't fulfill the request.)

Megan Mineiro of Courthouse News: "Federal prosecutors told a judge Monday they are prepared to release sealed materials in search and seizure warrants against Roger Stone issued during the FBI probe into the Trump campaign's ties to Russia. U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper in Washington opted for the government's proposed 60-day timeline to hand the sealed court records over to a coalition of media outlets that sued for the secret materials last year.... Cooper was randomly assigned the case after U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson, who oversaw Stone's trial, recused herself based on a conflict with a member of the media coalition."

Tess Owen of Vice: "A senior employee at a for-profit immigrant detention center in Nevada was active on the neo-Nazi site Iron March and aspired to establish a white nationalist chapter in his area.Travis Frey, 31, is currently employed as a captain at the Nevada Southern Detention Center, which is run by private prison behemoth CoreCivic and contracted with ICE. Frey joined Iron March in 2013, and posted at least a dozen times between 2016 and 2017 while he was working as head of security at a CoreCivic jail in Indianapolis, which was also authorized to house detainees on behalf of ICE.... On Iron March, Frey used the screen name 'In Hoc Signo Vinces,' a Latin phrase that's used by military outfits around the world, and by universities, and was the title of the American Nazi Party's manifesto. VICE News was able to identify Frey ... through some of the personal information he provided on Iron March...." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: But we sure Owen didn't bring his virulent racist proclivities to work.

Presidential Race

Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "Julián Castro on Monday threw his backing behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren for president, only days after suspending his own bid for the White House. 'There's one candidate I see who's unafraid to fight like hell to make sure America's promise will be there for everyone, who will make sure that no matter where you live in America or where your family came from in the world, you have a path to opportunity, too,' Castro says in a video announcing his endorsement." The New York Times story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

Senate Race, Kansas. Maggie Haberman, et al., of the New York Times: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday told Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, that he does not plan to run for Senate in 2020, most likely ending Republicans' hopes of securing a potentially dominant candidate for the open seat in his home state of Kansas, according to four people briefed on the meeting. Mr. Pompeo, a former congressman from the Wichita area, has quietly explored a campaign for months. But in the aftermath of the military operation last week that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani of Iran. Mr. Pompeo has told senior party officials that he is ruling out becoming a candidate, according to several people who have spoken with him directly." Politico has the story here.

Jan Ranson & Jose Del Real of the New York Times: "The Los Angeles County district attorney, Jackie Lacey, said [Harvey] Weinstein [was] charged [Monday] with one felony count each of forcible rape, forcible oral copulation, sexual penetration by use of force and sexual battery by restraint [in the cases of two women he (allegedly) accosted at a Hollywood film festival in 2013]. He faces up to 28 years in prison if convicted.... Only hours before prosecutors in Los Angeles unveiled the new case against Mr. Weinstein, he had hobbled with a walker into a courtroom in Manhattan for a hearing on the eve of his long-anticipated rape trial there. Jury selection was to begin on Tuesday." An AP story is here.

News Lede

CNN: "A 6.4-magnitude earthquake rocked Puerto Rico early Tuesday morning, just one day after a 5.8 magnitude quake shook the island, according to the US Geological Survey. The 6.4 quake struck at 3:24 a.m. local time about 6 miles south of Indios, Puerto Rico, the USGS said. The mayor of Guayanilla, just north Indios, reported damage to homes and a church. There were no immediate reports of injuries, Mayor Nelson Torres said in a phone interview with CNN affiliate WAPA."

The Commentariat -- January 6, 2020

Afternoon Update:

Allan Smith of NBC News: "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., announced the House will vote soon on a war powers resolution to limit ... Donald Trump's military actions after he ordered the killing of a top Iranian general last week, escalating tensions with Tehran. 'Last week, the Trump administration conducted a provocative and disproportionate military airstrike targeting high-level Iranian military officials,' Pelosi said in a letter to colleagues Sunday. 'This action endangered our servicemembers, diplomats and others by risking a serious escalation of tensions with Iran. As members of Congress, our first responsibility is to keep the American people safe,' she continued. 'For this reason, we are concerned that the administration took this action without the consultation of Congress and without respect for Congress's war powers granted to it by the Constitution.' She said the House resolution is similar to one introduced in the Senate by Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va."

New York Times live updates: "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wept and offered prayers over the coffin of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani at the funeral in Tehran on Monday, as throngs of people filled the city's streets to mourn.... Ayatollah Khamenei had a close relationship with the general, who was widely considered to be the second most powerful man in Iran. The military commander was hailed as a martyr, and his successor swore revenge during the funeral ceremony, while chants of 'Death to America' rang out from the crowds in the capital." An AP story is here. ~~~

~~~ Peter Baker of the New York Times: "For three years, President Trump's critics have expressed concern over how he would handle a genuine international crisis, warning that a commander in chief known for impulsive action might overreach with dangerous consequences. In the angry and frenzied aftermath of the American drone strike that killed Iran's top general, with vows of revenge hanging in the air, Mr. Trump confronts a decisive moment that will test whether those critics were right or whether they misjudged him. 'The moment we all feared is likely upon us,' Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut and vocal critic of Mr. Trump, wrote on Twitter over the weekend. 'An unstable President in way over his head, panicking, with all his experienced advisers having quit, and only the sycophantic amateurs remaining. Assassinating foreign leaders, announcing plans to bomb civilians. A nightmare.'... [Trump] faces enormous skepticism from the critics who have long warned that he was too erratic to face moments of crisis.... [But] And some experts on the [Mideast] region suggested that Mr. Trump's very unpredictability was a deterrent in itself...." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: What Baker doesn't acknowledge is that this is a crisis of Trump's own making: first, by cancelling the nuclear deal with Iran, then by imposing crippling sanctions on Iran, then by overreacting to the murder of a U.S. contractor by making multiple strikes on militia sites, then by overreacting to protesters' attacks on the U.S. embassy in Tehran by assassinating Suleimani. So we already know how Trump "responds" to a crisis: (1) he creates it, and (2) he makes it worse & worse.

~~~ Lara Jakes of the New York Times: "More than 2,300 years ago, the Persian capital of Persepolis was burned by a foreign warrior in a fatal blow to the empire and its rich heritage. The ruins of the ancient city, in modern-day southwest Iran, could now be on President Trump's target list of 52 sites he has threatened to attack as tensions escalated between Washington and Tehran.... But the targeting of cultural sites is against international law, and critics denounced Mr. Trump for his statement.... The United States is a signatory to a 1954 international agreement to protect cultural property in armed conflict. Violating it with attacks on Iran's historical sites would represent a huge turnabout. The United States was among the harshest critics of the Islamic State's destruction of antiquities in Mosul, Iraq, and Palmyra, Syria, as well as the Taliban's obliteration of the Bamiyan Buddhas in Afghanistan in 2001.... By Sunday, under the hashtag #IranianCulturalSites, a Twitter campaign cropped up in the form of history buffs taking verbal aim at Mr. Trump's threat." See also unwashed's comment below. ~~~

~~~ Rick Noack of the Washington Post: "By suggesting strikes on '52 Iranian sites,' including some that are important to 'the Iranian culture,' Trump threatened a way of waging war that has drawn growing outrage in recent decades, critics argued Monday.... 'Targeting civilians and cultural sites is what terrorists do. It's a war crime,' tweeted Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In Britain, a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned that 'there are international conventions in place which prevent the destruction of cultural heritage.'... In March 2017 -- only weeks after Trump's inauguration -- the U.N. Security Council, with the United States as a permanent member, unanimously adopted a resolution condemning the 'unlawful destruction of cultural heritage, inter alia destruction of religious sites and artefacts' in armed conflicts.... But with a U.S. president now threatening to attack cultural sites in Iran, the narrative that the United States helped to advance now appears in doubt." ~~~

~~~ John Bellinger in Lawfare: "On Sunday, Jan. 5, President Trump -- as he is wont to do when criticized -- doubled down on his threat to bomb Iranian cultural sites if Iran attacks the United States in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. Although the United States is not a party to the Rome Statute, which makes intentional attacks on historic monuments a war crime, the United States is a party to the 1954 Hague Convention on Protection of Cultural Property in the Event of Armed Conflict, which the Senate approved in September 2008, when I was legal adviser.... Trump and Vice President Mike Pence should learn the domestic and international law rules that govern the use of military force and the conduct of military operations and to understand why they are important." ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Chait: "The unfolding Iran adventure seems to open once again the question of what principle, if any, defines this president's foreign policy. Isolationism? Nationalism? Whatever Fox News is demanding at any given moment? His real North Star is in fact an idea he has explicated many times, but -- perhaps because it is so horrifying -- even his critics seem hesitant to accept as a true motivation. Trump's plan is to collapse the moral space between America and its enemies.... Our enemies are stronger and tougher, [Trump believes,] willing to do the hard things that must be done in order to win. To defeat them, we must become like them. Trump has long dismissed respect for human rights, international law, and innocent life as a form of political correctness.... The protective cordon surrounding Trump has eroded..., and it would be foolish to assume [aides] will necessarily succeed in stopping his latest unthinkable act.... From [his] premise that the authoritarians of the world are strong and correct, and its (small-d) democrats are politically correct fools, his broader recasting of America's alliances makes perfect sense. Of course he would draw the United States closer to Russia, the Gulf States, and the emerging autocrats of Europe...."

Wild Card. Nicholas Fandos & Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "John R. Bolton, the former White House national security adviser, said on Monday that he was willing to testify at President Trump's impeachment trial if he was subpoenaed. 'I have concluded that, if the Senate issues a subpoena for my testimony, I am prepared to testify,' Mr. Bolton said in a statement on his website. The development is a dramatic turn in the impeachment proceeding, which has been stalled over Democrats' insistence on hearing from critical witnesses Mr. Trump blocked from testifying in the House inquiry.... Mr. Bolton is a potential bombshell of a witness, with crucial knowledge of the president's actions and conversations regarding Ukraine that could fill out key blanks in the narrative of the impeachment case. His willingness to tell the Senate what he knows ratchets up pressure on Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, who has refused to commit to calling witnesses at the impeachment trial, to change his stance. It is unclear how the White House will respond to Mr. Bolton's declaration, but his statement strongly suggested that he would testify regardless of whether Mr. Trump sought to prevent him." Politico's story is here.

Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "Julián Castro on Monday threw his backing behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren for president, only days after suspending his own bid for the White House. 'There's one candidate I see who's to fight like hell to make sure America's promise will be there for everyone, who will make sure that no matter where you live in America or where your family came from in the world, you have a path to opportunity, too,' Castro says in a video announcing his endorsement." The New York Times story is here.

~~~~~~~~~~

** Ben Hubbard, et al., of the New York Times: "Mr. Trump has said that the killing of General Suleimani on Friday was aimed at preventing war. But so far, it has unleashed a host of unanticipated consequences that could dramatically alter where the United States operates. Increasingly, the killing appeared to be generating effects far beyond the United States' ability to control. That may include Iran's nuclear future. On Sunday, the Iranian government said it was abandoning its 'final limitations in the nuclear deal,' the international agreement intended to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. The decision leaves no restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, the statement said, including on uranium enrichment, production, research and expansion." A Politico story is here. Mrs. McC: Obviously, this is what to expect when you privilege drones over diplomats. ~~~

~~~ David Sanger & William Broad of the New York Times: "When President Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, he justified his unilateral action by saying the accord was flawed, in part because the major restrictions on Iran ended after 15 years, when Tehran would be free to produce as much nuclear fuel as it wanted. But now, instead of buckling to American pressure, Iran declared on Sunday that those restrictions are over -- a decade ahead of schedule. Mr. Trump's gambit has effectively backfired. Iran's announcement essentially sounded the death knell of the 2015 nuclear agreement. And it largely re-creates conditions that led Israel and the United States to consider destroying Iran's facilities a decade ago, again bringing them closer to the potential of open conflict with what was avoided by the accord. Iran did stop short of abandoning the entire deal on Sunday..., and its foreign minister held open the possibility that his nation would return to its provisions in the future -- if Mr. Trump reversed course and lifted the sanctions he has imposed since withdrawing from the accord." ~~~

OMG, Trump thinks a crazed Tweet satisfies his War Powers Act obligations to Congress. Our President has taken us to the brink of war and is now vamping with no plan and no clue. Please, someone in the GOP, take the car keys - read the 25th Amendment. -- Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), in a tweet ~~~

~~~ Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "President Trump claimed Sunday that his tweets are sufficient notice to Congress of any possible U.S. military strike on Iran, in an apparent dismissal of his obligations under the War Powers Act of 1973. Trump's declaration ... was met with disbelief and ridicule from congressional Democrats.... 'These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner,' Trump tweeted from his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., late Sunday afternoon. 'Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless!' Trump's claim that the United States will retaliate against Iran 'perhaps in a disproportionate manner' also contrasts with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's statement hours earlier on 'Fox News Sunday' that the administration 'will take responses that are appropriate and commensurate with actions that threaten American lives.' The War Powers Act of 1973 mandates that the president report to lawmakers within 48 hours of introducing military forces into armed conflict abroad. On Saturday, the White House delivered a formal notification to Congress of the strike that killed Soleimani.... But the document, which is entirely classified, drew scathing criticism from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who said in a statement that the notification 'raises more questions than it answers.'" A Hill story is here. ~~~

~~~ Jim Sciutto of CNN: "Two senior US officials on Sunday described widespread opposition within the administration to targeting cultural sites in Iran should the United States launch retaliatory strikes against Tehran, despite ... Donald Trump saying a day before that such sites are among dozens the US has identified as potential targets.... Among those critics was Colin Kahl, former deputy assistant to President Barack Obama and national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, who tweeted on Saturday that targeting such sites would be 'a war crime' and that he finds it 'hard to believe the Pentagon would provide Trump targeting options that include' them." ~~~

     ~~~ MEANWHILE. Guardian liveblog: "Donald Trump has defended his threat to target Iranian cultural sites -- widely seen as a war crime -- if Tehran retaliates for the killing of General Qassem Suleimani.... Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One a day later, he sought to offer a justification. 'They're allowed to kill our people,' Trump said, according to a pool report. 'They're allowed to torture and maim our people. They're allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And we're not allowed to touch their cultural site? It doesn't work that way.'" Mrs. McC: Actually, it does work that way, according to international law & U.S. military code. Government operatives are not "allowed" to commit war crimes. They face punishment when they do commit them. On the other hand, if it's an American who has committed a war crime, you're likely to pardon him. ~~~

~~~ Quint Forgey of Politico: "Congressional Democrats on Sunday expressed skepticism toward the evidence the Trump administration has cited to justify its killing of Iran's top military commander -- an explosive American military maneuver that inflamed regional tensions and heightened the potential for further conflict between Washington and Tehran. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) demanded that administration officials make public more details regarding the intelligence that precipitated ... Donald Trump's unexpected decision last week to order the drone strike targeting Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Islamic Republic's elite paramilitary Quds Force." ~~~

~~~ Zachary Cohen of CNN: "Top US national security officials continue to defend the Trump administration's claim that it killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in response to an impending threat to American lives, but the lack of evidence provided to lawmakers and the public has fueled lingering skepticism about whether the strike was justified.... The administration has failed to connect the dots in a way that provides a clear picture of an imminent threat and that argument has been obscured by inconsistent messaging from US officials.... In an interview with CNN Friday, Democratic Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico said more than once that he does not believe an attack on the United States was imminent as President Donald Trump and other top administration officials have said.... A ... US official raised additional questions about the motive for the strike, telling CNN it had presidential authorization at this level and they opted for a preemptive option after the previous moves of maximum pressure didn't change the Iranian pattern of behavior." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ David Atkins in the Washington Monthly: "Interventionists and anti-imperialists don't agree on much in foreign policy. But even if they take directly opposite approaches, they tend to agree that championing democratic values and human rights should be a primary goal of American foreign policy, and that it's better for other nations to see the United States as a friend than as an enemy. On both of those counts, Donald Trump's reckless decision to assassinate a prominent Iranian general has been a colossal failure.... The attack itself was ostensibly a violation of international law and Geneva Conventions. The president's gross threat the following day to attack Iranian cultural sites was an even clearer crime, and far less strategically or morally defensible.... Trump and his enablers have dramatically weakened the position of both America and western liberal values, setting the world on a much more dangerous course." ~~~

~~~ ** Alissa Rubin, et al., of the New York Times: "Lawmakers in Iraq heeded the demands of angry citizens and voted on Sunday to expel United States troops from the country after the United States ordered the killing of the Iranian leader of the elite Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, on Iraqi soil. The decision came as hundreds of thousands of mourners poured into the streets of Iran to pay their respects to General Suleimani, the most powerful figure in the country after the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The vote is not final until Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi of Iraq signs the draft bill. Earlier on Sunday, Mr. Mahdi indicated that he would do so.... American troops are in Iraq 'at the invitation' of the Iraqi government, according to the legal agreement between Baghdad and Washington. Presumably, if Baghdad withdrew that invitation, the United States would have to withdraw." A Deutsche Welle story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Pompeo, Minutes Earlier. Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday dismissed calls by Iraq's caretaker prime minister for a timetable for all foreign troops to exit the country.... 'He's under enormous threats from the very Iranian leadership that it is that we are pushing back against,' Pompeo said on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'We are confident that the Iraqi people want the United States to continue to be there to fight the counterterror campaign. And we'll continue to do all the things we need to do to keep America safe.' Pressed by host Chris Wallace on what the United States will do if the Iraqi parliament demands that American troops leave the country, Pompeo declined to say." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Riley Beggin of Vox: "Some Iraqi officials -- including Mahdi -- have complained that the US' attack on Soleimani violated Iraqi sovereignty. In a Sunday speech before Parliament recommending a 'yes' vote on the resolution, Mahdi told lawmakers ... Donald Trump spoke to him ahead of the strike and failed to mention it, according to the Washington Post's Mustafa Salim. Mahdi said he also explicitly told Trump the US was not to bring additional US military resources into the country." Beggin describes several complications surrounding the vote & how an expulsion of troops might play out. ~~~

~~~ Jonathan Swan of Axios: "The Trump administration tried, unsuccessfully, to persuade top Iraqi officials to kill a parliamentary effort to force the U.S. military out of Iraq, according to two U.S. officials and an Iraqi government official familiar with the situation.... Trump administration officials have warned senior Iraqi officials that Iraq would suffer dangerous consequences if the U.S. withdrew its military and its funding of the Iraqi security apparatus, according to sources familiar with the outreach. On the other hand, Trump has also told advisers he thinks it's ridiculous that America has been paying billions of dollars to support an Iraqi security apparatus that, in his view, is demonstrably incompetent, disloyal to America and close to Iran." ~~~

     ~~~ Update 2. Trump Threatens Iraq. Joanna Tan of CNBC: "... Donald Trump threatened Sunday to slap sanctions on Iraq after its parliament passed a resolution calling for the government to expel foreign troops from the country.... Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, the U.S. president said: 'If they do ask us to leave, if we don't do it in a very friendly basis, we will charge them sanctions like they've never seen before ever. It'll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame. We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that's there. It cost billions of dollars to build. Long before my time We're not leaving unless they pay us back for it.' He added that 'If there's any hostility, that they do anything we think is inappropriate, we are going to put sanctions on Iraq, very big sanctions on Iraq.'" ~~~

~~~ Stephen Collinson of CNN: "The Trump administration is already in danger of losing control of the swift chain reaction and political storm unleashed by its killing of Iran's top general, Qasem Soleimani.... Donald Trump's claim that the drone strike last week made Americans safer is being challenged by cascading events that appear to leave the US more vulnerable and isolated. The administration's basis for the attack also came under renewed suspicion after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNN that it was not 'relevant' for him to reveal how imminent the attacks on US interests were that Trump said Soleimani was planning.... Washington's European allies, meanwhile, distanced themselves from Trump's assault. The US-led ISIS coalition temporarily stopped action against the terror group to protect Iraqi bases from Iranian-backed militias." Mrs. McC: Otherwise, everything is going very smoothly. ~~~

~~~ Blame the Briefers! Daniel Politi of Slate: "Pentagon officials usually include a far-out option when they present possibilities to the president in order to make the others seem less extreme.... 'The Pentagon also tacked on the choice of targeting General Suleimani, mainly to make other options seem reasonable,' reports the [New York] Times. [Story by Helene Cooper & others also linked here yesterday.] At first, it seemed everything was going according to plan. Trump rejected the option to kill Soleimani to respond to a wave of recent Iranian-sponsored violence in Iraq.... Then things changed when protesters gathered outside the U.S. embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday.... Suddenly, Trump was worried that failing to respond to the protests would look weak. By Thursday, Trump had decided to go forward with the killing of Soleimani and 'top Pentagon officials were stunned,' reports the Times." ~~~

     ~~~ John Cole of Balloon Juice: "Don't give him any extreme options. The saying 'POWERPOINT IS GOING TO BE THE DEATH OF US' was not supposed to be literal." ~~~

~~~ Erin Cunningham of the Washington Post covers many of the weekend's developments in this report.

Ryan Browne & Michael Callahan of CNN: "Three Americans were killed in Sunday's terror attack in Kenya. The Americans -- a US service member and two civilian contractors working for the Defense Department -- were killed in the attack carried out by Al-Shabaab, US Africa Command, which is responsible for military relations with nations on the continent, confirmed to CNN. Two DOD members wounded in the attack are now in stable condition and are being evacuated, Africa Command said. The attack occurred at a Kenya Defense Force in Manda Bay, Kenya. Sources have previously told CNN that the base was used by US Special Operations forces working with the Kenyans.... Al-Shabaab has previously pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda."

Rachel Bade of the Washington Post: "Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey O. Graham suggested Sunday that Republicans should try to change Senate rules governing impeachment if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi continues to withhold the charges against President Trump -- an unlikely 11th-hour bid to begin a trial within days without the actual documents. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was unequivocal in a Senate floor speech on Friday that 'we can't hold a trial without the articles; the Senate's own rules don't provide for that.' But Graham (R-S.C.), a close ally of Trump, floated the idea of a unilateral GOP move, saying he would work with McConnell to allow the Senate to proceed without the two charges against Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The suggestion, while unlikely due to the high threshold of votes required for changing Senate impeachment rules, underscores the pressure some Trump allies feel as the president stews over the impeachment delay."

Presidential Race. David Leonhardt of the New York Times: "So where are you supposed to find a comfortably electable, qualified candidate who won't turn 80 while in office? Senator Amy Klobuchar has become an answer to that question in the final month before voting begins.... Her greatest strength is her understanding of how to beat Republicans.... I am also struck by Klobuchar's views about how to run against Trump this time -- to talk about how he has let down the country (which gives his old supporters permission to switch sides), to use humor against his demagoguery and to appeal to voters' emotions and patriotism.... Many Democratic voters care more about beating Trump than anything else. For them, Klobuchar deserves a look." Mrs. McC: Based on my reading of his NYT columns, Leonhardt is quite liberal. If he can consider voting for Klobuchar, I can too. And yeah, I'm still bothered by reports of her throwing stuff at staffers more than her too-moderate views.

** Hansi Lo Wang of NPR: "More than a year after his death, a cache of computer files saved on the hard drives of Thomas Hofeller, a prominent Republican redistricting strategist, is becoming public.... They have been cited as evidence of gerrymandering that got political maps thrown out in North Carolina, and they have raised questions about Hofeller's role in the Trump administration's failed push for a census citizenship question... Now more of the files are available online through a website called The Hofeller Files, where Hofeller's daughter, Stephanie Hofeller, published a link to her copy of the files on Sunday.... The files document the wide reach of Thomas Hofeller's work on political maps across the country -- including in Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia, as well as New York's Nassau County and Texas' Galveston and Nueces counties." --s