The Commentariat -- January 2, 2020

Late Morning Update:

Kate Brannen of Just Security: "Last month, a court ordered the government to release almost 300 pages of emails [related to the Ukraine scandal] to the Center for Public Integrity in response to a FOIA lawsuit. It released a first batch on Dec. 12, and then a second installment on Dec. 21..., but ... several [documents] were partially or completely blacked out. Since then, Just Security has viewed unredacted copies of these emails, which begin in June and end in early October. Together, they tell the behind-the-scenes story of the defense and budget officials who had to carry out the president's unexplained hold on military aid to Ukraine. The documents reveal growing concern from Pentagon officials that the hold would violate the Impoundment Control Act, which requires the executive branch to spend money as appropriated by Congress, and that the necessary steps to avoid this result weren't being taken.... The emails also show that no rationale was ever given for why the hold was put in place or why it was eventually lifted. What is clear is that it all came down to the president and what he wanted; no one else appears to have supported his position.... Instead, officials were anxiously waiting for the president to be convinced that the hold was a bad idea."

Jennifer Medina & Matt Stevens of the New York Times: "Julián Castro, the former housing secretary who was the only Latino candidate in the Democratic primary, said Thursday he would end his bid for the presidency, capping a yearlong campaign where he struggled in polls but remained a policy pacesetter on immigration and fighting poverty." The Guardian liveblog has several items related to Castro's withdrawal from the race, beginning @9:12 am ET.

Holly Otterbein of Politico: "Bernie Sanders raised more than $34.5 million in the final three months of 2019, a substantial sum that exceeds the two other Democratic presidential candidates who have announced their hauls so far in that period. The Vermont senator, who disclosed the amount Thursday morning, brought in a total of about $96 million last year from more than 5 million contributions. The campaign's average donation was $18."

Steve Holland of Reuters: "... Donald Trump's re-election campaign raised $46 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, a major haul that was boosted by a surge of donations in the wake of the Democrats' impeachment bid, a senior campaign official said on Thursday.... The $46 million for the fourth quarter was the amount raised only by the Trump re-election campaign. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence typically headline fundraising events that benefit both the campaign and the Republican National Committee. The amount raised by the RNC for the fourth quarter of 2019 is expected to be released soon."

Australia. Miriam Berger of the Washington Post: "Australia's prime minister visited families devastated by the wildfires. It did not go well.... Residents of the ravaged town [of Cobargo in southern New South Wales] were angry, their homes and livelihood suddenly incinerated in a fiery flash. On Thursday, they vented that frustration at visiting Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who cut short his tour of the fire-hit residents amid their barrage of criticism.... 'How come we only had four trucks to defend our town? Because our town doesn't have a lot of money, but we have hearts of gold, prime minister,' one woman in a Led Zeppelin T-shirt walking a goat shouted at the prime minister."

International Incident. Simon Denyer of the Washington Post: "Turkish police detained seven people Thursday, including four pilots, on suspicion of having helped former Nissan executive Carlos Ghosn escape Japan and transit through Istanbul on his way to Lebanon, Turkey's state news agency reported. An investigation has been launched into Ghosn's 'illegal arrival' in Turkey after he escaped house arrest in Japan, according to the Anadolu news agency. The four pilots were believed to have traveled on the private jet that brought Ghosn from Japan on his way to Beirut. Two employees of a private ground handling company and the operations manager of a private cargo company were also detained. Turkey has close relations with Japan, while Japanese businesses are significant investors in the country.... Meanwhile, Japanese prosecutors raided Ghosn's now-vacated house in Tokyo on Thursday, as they sought clues to how he evaded their surveillance, slipped out of the country and arrived in Lebanon."

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David Sanger of the New York Times: "President Trump entered the new year facing flare-ups of long-burning crises with two old adversaries -- Iran and North Korea -- which are directly challenging his claim to have reasserted American power around the world. While the Iranian-backed attack on the United States Embassy in Baghdad seemed to be under control, it played to Mr. Trump's longtime worry that American diplomats and troops in the Middle East are easy targets and his longtime stance that the United States must pull back from the region. In North Korea, Kim Jong-un's declaration on Wednesday that the world would 'witness a new strategic weapon' seemed to be the end of an 18-month experiment in which Mr. Trump believed his force of personality -- and vague promises of economic development -- would wipe away a problem that plagued the last 12 of his predecessors.... Both the Iranians and the North Koreans seem to sense the vulnerability of a president under impeachment and facing re-election, even if they are often clumsy as they try to play those events to their advantage." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Fortunately for our adversaries, no matter how clumsy, Trump is clumsier.

Falih Hassan & Alissa Rubin of the New York Times: "After vowing to camp outside the United States Embassy until the Americans left Iraq, and trying for a second day to scale the compound's walls, demonstrators drawn largely from Iranian-backed militias called off their protest on Wednesday." The Hill has a story here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Michael Crowley & Edward Wong of the New York Times: "President Trump toughened his rhetoric toward Iran on Tuesday, saying the country would 'be held fully responsible' for the attack by Iraqi demonstrators on the United States Embassy compound in Baghdad, an assault that Mr. Trump said was directed by Tehran. 'This is not a Warning, it is a Threat. Happy New Year!' Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening, in some of his most bellicose language of the year toward Iran. The growing crisis has strained Mr. Trump's aversion to war with Iran as well as his distaste for Middle East entanglements generally, including in Iraq." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Edward Wong: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday a weeklong trip to Ukraine and four other nations to stay in Washington and monitor tensions in Iraq after protesters broke into the United States Embassy compound in Baghdad and wrecked parts of it, the State Department said." Mrs. McC: Oh, gee, Secretary Pompompous could have avoided the embarrassment of firing Bill Taylor if only he had known Iraqis would embarrass him this weekend. ~~~

~~~ Peter Beinart of the Atlantic: "Over the last 18 months, Donald Trump has picked a fight with Iran that he won't end and can't win. That fight has had horrifying consequences for the Iranian people, led Tehran to restart its nuclear program, and now left parts of the American embassy compound in Baghdad in flames.... Absent a revolution that replaces the Islamic Republic with a more pliant regime, he's at Iran's mercy.... When it comes to Iran, Trump has shifted Republican foreign policy away from war without shifting it towards diplomacy -- the only stable alternative to war. So he's caught in a kind of purgatory." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Juan Cole: "Iraqi troops detailed to the embassy appear to have initially vanished.... It does not appear that the militiamen were very determined to get inside the embassy, since it seems to me they could have if they had tried very hard.... On Arabic satellite t.v. today, I saw a parade of hard line Shiite leaders accuse the embassy of being a nest of spies and a command headquarter for the infliction of harm on Iraqis by the United States. This is the discourse of the MEK (Mojahedin-e Khalq) and other organizations in 1979 who invaded the US embassy in Tehran and took the staff hostages for 444 days. Ironically, Rudy Giuliani and John Bolton later on appear to have more or less joined the MEK, taking tens of thousands of dollars in speaking fees for each appearance at its conclaves ... because it opposes the current regime in Tehran. Here's another irony: There doesn't appear to have been any enhanced security for the US Embassy in Baghdad in the wake of the Trump administration bombing.... In fact, Pompeo and the Trump administration have drastically slashed funding for embassy security...."

Sarah Burris of the Raw Story: "Frank Clemente and William Rice from Americans for Tax Fairness issued a scathing editorial in the Los Angeles Times Wednesday about the failed Republican tax bill that not only left the middle-class behind it has failed in nearly everything promised.... 'Rushed through Congress by a Republican majority, the Trump-GOP tax cuts were promoted as a boon for the middle class,' wrote Clemente and Rice. 'Yet in 2020, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, the richest 1% of taxpayers will get an average tax cut of around $50,000, 75 times more than the average cut for the bottom 80 percent.'... 'A close look at [the] Bureau of Labor Statistics figures shows that the growth rate in wages was just 0.4 percent in the two years since the tax cut. Compare that with wage growth of 0.7 percent in the last two years of President Obama's administration.'... Trump even claimed that the new law would 'cost me a fortune,' as a wealthy taxpayer.... 'Trump and his family have undoubtedly benefited by millions of dollars from at least five features of the law, ranging from lower top tax rates to a weakened estate tax,' wrote Clemente and Rice. 'Of course, we can't be sure exactly how much they've saved because Trump refuses to release his tax returns.'"

Dan Charles of NPR: "In 2019, the federal government delivered an extraordinary financial aid package to America's farmers. Farm subsidies jumped to their highest level in fourteen years, most of them paid out without any action by Congress.... It's an enormous amount of money, more than the final cost of bailing out the auto industry during the financial crisis of 2008. The auto industry bailout was fiercely debated in Congress. Yet the USDA created this new program out of thin air.... Joe Glauber, the USDA's former chief economist..., sees a risk of 'moral hazard' -- a situation in which someone is shielded from the consequences of poor decisions. The decision to start the trade war was costly, he says, and the Trump Administration, by tapping the federal treasury, is avoiding the political fallout from that decision. 'The sector that is hurt the most, and which would normally complain, all of a sudden it's assuaged by these payments. To me, that's a problem,' he says."

Presidential Race 2020

Astead Herndon of the New York Times: "Elizabeth Warren isn't talking much about 'Medicare for All' anymore.... After months of attacks from other candidates, and questions and som blowback from both liberals and moderates, the most ambitious and expensive of Ms. Warren's many plans -- and the one most likely to transform the lives of voters -- is just a passing mention in her standard stump speech, rarely explored in depth unless a questioner brings it up.... With five weeks left before the Iowa caucuses, Ms. Warren is tailoring her closing message in the state to focus on rooting out Washington corruption...."

Fredreka Schouten of CNN: "Pete Buttigieg raised more than $24.7 million during the final three months of 2019, his campaign announced early Wednesday morning -- cementing his standing as one of the fundraising leaders of the 2020 Democratic presidential race." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

AND Tulsi Gabbard hangs ten of them toes in the frigid Atlantic off New Hampshire.

New Rules. Benjamin Siu of ABC News: "It's the start of a new year, which means new state laws will take effect across the nation. Minimum wage hikes, fees for electric vehicles, new consumer privacy rules, gun regulations -- these are just a few of the issues state legislatures have dipped into or will be dipping into over the next decade." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Vanessa Swales of the New York Times: "Here's a look at changes coming across the country."

Beyond the Beltway

New York. Joseph Berger of the New York Times: "For the past century, thousands of Jews have participated in a shared and daunting religious feat, reading the same page of the Talmud every day until they finish all 38 volumes of that central text of Jewish religious law and rabbinical debates. The task takes almost seven and a half years to complete and ends in a colossal party. On Wednesday, [90,000] Jews thronged MetLife Stadium to mark the occasion, but this time, a recent nationwide wave of anti-Semitic attacks freighted the communal celebration with extra meaning. On a windy and biting cold day, the gathering offered a chance to affirm their faith in the face of those terrible acts."

Way Beyond

Australia. Marnie O'Neill of news.com.au: "There are real concerns entire species of plants and animals have been wiped out by bushfires following revelations almost 500 million animals have died since the crisis began. Ecologists from the University of Sydney now estimate 480 million mammals, birds and reptiles have been lost since September. That figure is likely to soar following the devastating fires which have ripped through Victoria and the NSW South Coast over the past couple of days[.]" --s

Hong Kong. Russell Goldman & Elaine Yu of the New York Times: "Hong Kong protesters began the new year the way they'd spent much of the old one: in the streets. Nearly a month of relative quiet abruptly ended on Wednesday with the sounds of protesters' chants and police officers' tear-gas rifles. A peaceful New Year's Day march descended within a few hours into violent clashes. Riot officers deployed water cannons and pepper spray. Protesters built barricades out of umbrellas and paving stones, and vandalized at least two branches of a leading bank in the city, HSBC."

Israel. Josef Federman of the AP: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday he would seek immunity from corruption charges, likely delaying any trial until after March elections, when he hopes to have a majority coalition that will shield him from prosecution. Netanyahu was indicted in November on charges of accepting bribes, fraud and breach of trust. After failing to assemble a governing majority following back-to-back elections last year, he will get a third shot at remaining in office in March. Wednesday's announcement essentially turns the upcoming election into a referendum on whether Netanyahu should be granted immunity and remain in office, or step down and stand trial. A recent poll indicated that a majority of Israelis oppose giving him immunity."

News Lede

New York Times: "Don Larsen, an otherwise ordinary pitcher who achieved the extraordinary when he threw the only perfect game in World Series history, died on Wednesday in Hayden Lake, Idaho. He was 90."

New Year's Day 2020

Afternoon Update:

Falih Hassan & Alissa Rubin of the New York Times: "After vowing to camp outside the United States Embassy until the Americans left Iraq, and trying for a second day to scale the compound’s walls, demonstrators drawn largely from Iranian-backed militias called off their protest on Wednesday." The Hill has a story here. ~~~

~~~ Michael Crowley & Edward Wong of the New York Times: “President Trump toughened his rhetoric toward Iran on Tuesday, saying the country would 'be held fully responsible' for the attack by Iraqi demonstrators on the United States Embassy compound in Baghdad, an assault that Mr. Trump said was directed by Tehran. 'This is not a Warning, it is a Threat. Happy New Year!' Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening, in some of his most bellicose language of the year toward Iran. The growing crisis has strained Mr. Trump’s aversion to war with Iran as well as his distaste for Middle East entanglements generally, including in Iraq.”

~~~ Peter Beinart of the Atlantic: "Over the last 18 months, Donald Trump has picked a fight with Iran that he won’t end and can’t win. That fight has had horrifying consequences for the Iranian people, led Tehran to restart its nuclear program, and now left parts of the American embassy compound in Baghdad in flames.... Absent a revolution that replaces the Islamic Republic with a more pliant regime, he’s at Iran’s mercy.... When it comes to Iran, Trump has shifted Republican foreign policy away from war without shifting it towards diplomacy—the only stable alternative to war. So he’s caught in a kind of purgatory."

Fredreka Schouten of CNN: "Pete Buttigieg raised more than $24.7 million during the final three months of 2019, his campaign announced early Wednesday morning -- cementing his standing as one of the fundraising leaders of the 2020 Democratic presidential race."

New Rules. Benjamin Siu of ABC News: "It's the start of a new year, which means new state laws will take effect across the nation. Minimum wage hikes, fees for electric vehicles, new consumer privacy rules, gun regulations -- these are just a few of the issues state legislatures have dipped into or will be dipping into over the next decade."

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Falih Hassan, et al., of the New York Times: “Protesters broke into the heavily guarded compound of the United States Embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday and set fires inside in anger over American airstrikes that killed 24 members of an Iranian-backed militia over the weekend. The men did not enter the main embassy buildings and later withdrew from the compound, joining thousands of protesters and militia fighters outside chanting 'Death to America,' throwing rocks, covering the walls with graffiti and demanding that the United States withdraw its forces from Iraq. The situation remained combustible, with the crowd vowing to camp indefinitely outside the sprawling compound, the world’s largest embassy. Their ability to storm the most heavily guarded zone in Baghdad suggested that they had received at least tacit permission from Iraqi security officials sympathetic to their demands.... The United States military made a show of force in response to the turmoil, with helicopter gunships circling overhead. From inside the compound, loudspeakers warned the crowd outside to keep away from the walls.... The [U.S.] State Department said that American personnel were safe and that there were no plans to evacuate the embassy.” An AP story is here. ~~~

~~~ Conor Finnegan, et al., of ABC News: "The Pentagon expects to send additional U.S. troops to the Middle East after hundreds of protesters, fomented by pro-Iranian militias and seemingly permitted by Iraqi security forces, attempted to storm the U.S. embassy in Baghdad.... There are already 5,000 U.S. troops in the country, there to train and support Iraqi security forces in the fight against the Islamic State. A number of U.S. Marines from Kuwait had already arrived at the Baghdad embassy to bolster security, according to two U.S. officials, one of whom said it was about 100 Marines. Two Apache helicopters conducted a show of force over the embassy, firing flares as a warning to protesters, another official said." ~~~

~~~ Thomas Franck of CNBC: “... Donald Trump on Tuesday blamed Iran for planning an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and promised to hold Tehran 'fully responsible.' 'Iran killed an American contractor, wounding many. We strongly responded, and always will,' the president wrote on Twitter. 'Now Iran is orchestrating an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible.' 'In addition, we expect Iraq to use its forces to protect the Embassy, and so notified!' he added.... Trump’s tweet came after dozens of angry Iraqi Shiite militia supporters stormed the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad and set fire to a reception area on the grounds earlier in the day. The Iraqi supporters, many dressed in military apparel, pushed into the compound using cars to break through its gate. The protesters hung a poster on the wall saying, 'America is an aggressor.'” Mrs. McC: I'm sure our embassy personnel feel a lot safer knowing Trump is threatening Iran & Iraq from the comfort of Mar-a-Lago. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Heather Hurlburt of New York: “Three factors led to the attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday, and Trump only bears responsibility for two of them. But now he and his administration will have to manage a volatile situation that puts Americans in danger and undercuts his goal of disentangling the U.S. from Middle East conflicts.... Iraq’s government is weak and disliked by pretty much all wings of a divided Iraqi society. This is not Trump’s doing.... Trump does bear responsibility for Iraq increasingly becoming the place where U.S.-Iranian tensions play out.... After the Trump administration left the [Iran nuclear] deal and tightened the economic screws on Iran, the country retaliated by becoming more active in Iraq.... In [the] confusion [caused by Trump's withdrawal of U.S. troops from Kurdish-held Syrian territory earlier in 2019], Iranian-backed militias saw an opportunity to increase their influence.... On Twitter, Kelly Magsamen, who served in senior national security positions under both presidents Obama and Bush, described what’s needed now: 'cool headed leadership and a functioning national security process that effectively develops and evaluates options. We have neither.'”

Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "As Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. prepares to preside over the impeachment trial of President Trump, he issued pointed remarks on Tuesday in his year-end report on the state of the federal judiciary that seemed to be addressed, at least in part, to the president himself.... The nominal focus of the report was the importance of civics education, but even a casual reader could detect a timely subtext, one concerned with the foundational importance of the rule of law." CNN's report is here.

Dartunorro Clark of NBC News: "Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, criticized Republicans and Democrats — citing Sens. Mitch McConnell and Elizabeth Warren by name — for making comments about the Senate impeachment trial of ... Donald Trump before it has even started.... Collins also told Maine Public Radio that she is 'open' to calling witnesses in the Senate trial but stopped short of saying which administration officials should testify."

The Democrats will do anything to avoid a trial in the Senate in order to protect Sleepy Joe Biden, and expose the millions and millions of dollars that 'Where’s' Hunter, & possibly Joe, were paid by companies and countries for doing NOTHING. Joe wants no part of this mess! -- Donald Trump, in a tweet Tuesday ~~~

~~~ Greg Sargent of the Washington Post: “Trump is now openly calling for his impeachment trial to be converted into something that is purely devoted to serving his own political needs — one that only includes witnesses that will help him keep smearing potential 2020 opponent Joe Biden, but has no meaningful relevance whatsoever to the corrupt conduct for which he has been impeached.... Incredibly, this comes as Senate Republicans push for a trial that features none of the witnesses who actually do have direct knowledge of that very same corrupt conduct.... They are doing this to protect Trump — and themselves — because he’s guilty as charged, and they know it.... There’s a deep irony here: Biden actually did work for years to root out kleptocracy and corruption in Ukraine, explicitly describing this as essential to drawing it into the Western orbit, and away from Russian predation, serving our national interests. By contrast, Trump actually does not care a whit about corruption in Ukraine. He used it as his cover story for extorting the Ukrainian president to help him advance his own kleptocratic and corrupt designs, subverting our national interests to his own.” (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Betsy Swan & Sam Brodey of the Daily Beast: “Former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe faced scorching criticism and potential criminal prosecution for changing his story about a conversation he had with a Wall Street Journal reporter. Now newly released interview transcripts show McCabe expressed remorse to internal FBI investigators when they pressed him on the about-face. The FBI released the documents in response to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit by the government watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).... [On the day Trump fired Jim Comey -- May 9, 2017 -- McCabe said in an] interview..., [which was ostensibly on another topic,] he did not know how the Journal story came to be. But a few months later, his story changed after he reviewed his answer.... On Aug. 18, FBI officials met with McCabe in an attempt to work through what they said was 'conflicting information' they had gathered about the possible leak to the Journal.” In that interview, McCabe said he authorized the Journal report.... McCabe’s lawyer has said his story changed because in the initial interview he wasn’t prepared for the question. The question surprised him, and he didn’t give his answer a second thought because Comey was fired shortly after the interview concluded and his world turned upside down."

Joshua Partlow & David Fahrenthold of the Washington Post: "Nearly a year after the Trump Organization pledged to root out undocumented workers at its properties, supervisors at the Trump Winery on Monday summoned at least seven employees and fired them because of their lack of legal immigration status, according to two of the dismissed workers. The timing of the firings at the rural Virginia winery, 11 months after the company began purging the ranks of undocumented greenskeepers and cooks at Trump golf courses, came during the vineyard’s winter downtime. Workers had finished the arduous annual grape harvest, which involved working 60-hour weeks and overnight shifts under floodlights. Two of the fired workers — Omar Miranda, a 42-year-old tractor driver from Honduras, and a second employee who spoke on the condition of anonymity ... — said they thought the company had held off on firing them until after the year’s work was complete, taking advantage of their labor for as long as possible. Both had worked at the winery for more than a decade.... Legally, the wine is manufactured by the Eric Trump Wine Manufacturing Company, of which Eric Trump is president. But President Trump owns the land under the winery, which produces rental income — between $300,000 and $3 million in 2018, according to his financial disclosures. He also owns the Albemarle hotel on the property, which took in $1.14 million in revenue in 2018." CNN has a story citing the WashPo report here.

Trumplethinskin. Cristina Cabrera of TPM: "The Trump administration was reportedly thrown into a tailspin in 2017 when someone at the U.S. Mission to the European Union in Brussels used the embassy’s official account to 'like' an anti-Trump tweet from Chelsea Clinton.... The spat followed Trump’s decision that week to place his eldest daughter, Ivanka Trump, in his seat at one of the G-20 meetings while he attended private meetings at the summit. According to the Daily Beast, the State Department first called the mission to complain about the offensive 'like,' then opened a weeks-long investigation into the matter.... At least 10 people were grilled in the probe.... Ultimately, they failed to snag the transgressor. The snafu fueled the paranoia that plagues Trump’s administration, which has made extensive efforts to root out staffers deemed 'anti-Trump' or otherwise insufficiently loyal to the President." --s

"The Daily Show" compiled this video for laughs, but it should make us all sad and alarmed. ~~~

Justin Elliott & Paul Kiel of ProPublica: “Finding free online tax filing should be easier this year for millions of Americans. The IRS announced significant changes Monday to its deal with the tax prep software industry. Now companies are barred from hiding their free products from search engines such as Google, and a years-old prohibition on the IRS creating its own online filing system has been scrapped. The addendum to the deal, known as Free File, comes after ProPublica’s reporting this year on how the industry, led by TurboTax maker Intuit, has long misled taxpayers who are eligible to file for free.... The addendum ... expressly bars the companies from 'engaging in any practice' that would exclude their Free File offerings 'from an organic internet search.' ProPublica reported in April that Intuit and H&R Block had added code to their Free File pages that hid them from Google and other search engines, diverting many users to the companies’ paid products.”

Valerie Volcovici of Reuters: "A panel of scientific advisers, including several appointed by ... Donald Trump, says some rollbacks of clean-air and vehicle rules proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency are based on weak scientific analysis and should be revised, according to draft reports published on Tuesday." --s

Choe Sang-Hun of the New York Times: "North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, ​said his country no longer felt bound by its self-imposed moratorium on testing nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, its official media reported on Wednesday, the strongest indication yet that the country could soon resume such tests.... North Korea has not conducted a long-range missile test or a nuclear test in more than two years." NPR's story is here.

Presidential Race 2020. An Indiana Man Becomes Youngest Unemployed Person in Presidential Race. Ursula Perano of Axios: Pete "Buttigieg's term as mayor [of South Bend, Indiana, ends] Wednesday as James Mueller, who served in Buttigieg's administration as chief of staff, is set to be sworn in. Buttigieg announced he would not run for re-election in 2018. Mueller received Buttigieg's endorsement in February 2019. He won a crowded primary for the city's Democratic nomination in May." Buttigieg joins several other unemployed men who aspire to the top job.

Senate Race 2020. Justin Baragona of the Daily Beast: “Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski took to Twitter on Tuesday to announced that he will not run for Senate in New Hampshire.... 'After much consideration I have decided to forgo a campaign for the US Senate,' he tweeted. 'While taking on a career politician from the Washington swamp is a tall order, I am certain I would have won. My priorities remain my family and ensuring that @realDonaldTrump is re-elected POTUS.'” Mrs. McC: No, no, I would have won had I run. Corey has figured out the best way not to lose: don't even try. What a jerk. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: A December poll showed incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) beating Lewandowski 58%-35%.

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Fox Nation. Joan Greve of the Guardian: "Fox News saw its biggest year ever in 2019, attracting the highest number of viewers in its 23-year history. According to ratings from Nielsen, Fox hit an average of 2.5 million viewers per night in 2019, making it the top-rated basic cable network. Fox easily beat out third-place MSNBC, which attracted an average 1.75 million viewers. The network also aired four of the top five most-watched shows on cable news in 2019[.]" --s ~~~

~~~ safari: In light of this depressing Fox news, I'm reupping this piece by Garrett Graff of Wired [Dec. 11]: "The lies and obfuscations forwarded ad infinitum on Fox News pose a dangerous threat to the national security of the United States.... Fox’s bubble reality creates a situation where it’s impossible to have the conversations and debate necessary to function as a democracy. Facts that are inconvenient to President Trump simply disappear down Fox News’ 'memory hole,' as thoroughly as George Orwell could have imagined in 1984.... Fox’s clear willingness to parrot the wingnuttiest ideas in service of the president, long-term implications to the United States be damned, should worry all concerned about the state of the United States." --s

Earth. Reuters: "Microscopic pieces of plastic have been discovered in the most remote locations, from the depths of the ocean to Arctic ice - and in our bodies as we breathe in and eat microplastic, and drink plastic-infused water every day. People could be ingesting the equivalent of a credit card of plastic a week, a recent study by WWF International concluded, mainly in drinking water but also via food like shellfish, which tend to be eaten whole so the plastic in their digestive systems is also consumed.  Reuters used the findings of the study to illustrate what this amount of plastic actually looks like over various periods of time. (Open here in an external browser to see a visualization of the amount of microplastic we consume.)" --s

Beyond the Beltway

Illinois. Kathleen Foody of the AP: "Illinois’ governor granted more than 11,000 pardons for low-level marijuana convictions on Tuesday, describing the step as a first wave of thousands of such expungements anticipated under the state’s new marijuana legalization law. The expungement process is a key part of the law, which takes effect Wednesday and made Illinois the 11th state to legalize marijuana for people 21 or older. When they crafted the policy, Illinois lawmakers said they wanted to repair some of the damage caused by law enforcement’s efforts to combat sale and use of the drug, particularly in minority communities. Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker announced the pardons at a church on Chicago’s South Side. He said clearing the misdemeanor offenses from individuals’ records will make it easier for them to get jobs, housing and financial aid for college."

North Carolina. Will Doran of the Raleigh News & Observer: “Racial discrimination was at least part of the motivation for a new voter ID law in North Carolina, a federal judge wrote Tuesday, striking the law down for now. In a 60-page ruling evoking decades of racism in North Carolina, the judge wrote that parts of the new voter ID law 'were impermissibly motivated, at least in part, by discriminatory intent.'... Her ruling means that although voters statewide approved a voter ID mandate as an amendment to the state constitution in the 2018 elections, people most likely will be able to vote without showing ID in at least the March primary election.”

Way Beyond

Australia. Isabella Kwai of the New York Times: "As the fire stalked the east coast of Australia on Tuesday, the daytime sky turned inky black, then blood red. Emergency sirens wailed, followed by the thunder of gas explosions. Thousands of residents fled their homes and huddled near the shore. There was nowhere else to go. Apocalyptic scenes like these in Mallacoota, a vacation destination between Sydney and Melbourne, came on the last day of the warmest decade on record in Australia. The country is in the grip of a devastating fire season, with months of summer still to go, as record-breaking temperatures, strong winds and prolonged drought have ignited huge blazes across the country. The government prepared to deploy navy vessels and military helicopters to help fight the fires and evacuate people.... Australia is normally hot and dry in summer, but climate change, which brings more frequent and longer periods of extreme heat, worsens these conditions and makes vegetation drier and more likely to burn." ~~~

~~~ Some ghastly images of Australia's current 'bushfire day of terror', with more on the way. --s

Russia. Ilya Arkhipov & Stepan Kravchenko of Bloomberg: "More than a million Russians have been caught up in the worst wave of bomb threats in years, sending people to social media for information about events largely ignored by Kremlin-controlled national television.... In Moscow alone, more than a million people have been evacuated since Nov. 28, according to Interfax.... The source of the calls hasn’t been established, but Russia has been targeted by terrorist groups, including Islamic State, in the past. The Federal Security Service, or FSB, detained two suspects in St. Petersburg last week after receiving intelligence from the U.S. about a possible attack." --s

Read more here: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article238870598.html#storylink=cp

The Commentariat -- December 31, 2019

Afternoon Update:

The Democrats will do anything to avoid a trial in the Senate in order to protect Sleepy Joe Biden, and expose the millions and millions of dollars that 'Where's Hunter, & possibly Joe, were paid by companies and countries for doing NOTHING. Joe wants no part of this mess! -- Donald Trump, in a tweet Tuesday ~~~

~~~ Greg Sargent of the Washington Post: "Trump is now openly calling for his impeachment trial to be converted into something that is purely devoted to serving his own political needs -- one that only includes witnesses that will help him keep smearing potential 2020 opponent Joe Biden, but has no meaningful relevance whatsoever to the corrupt conduct for which he has been impeached.... Incredibly, this comes as Senate Republicans push for a trial that features none of the witnesses who actually do have direct knowledge of that very same corrupt conduct.... They are doing this to protect Trump -- and themselves --- because he's guilty as charged, and they know it.... There's a deep irony here: Biden actually did work for years to root out kleptocracy and corruption in Ukraine, explicitly describing this as essential to drawing it into the Western orbit, and away from Russian predation, serving our national interests. By contrast, Trump actually does not care a whit about corruption in Ukraine. He used it as his cover story for extorting the Ukrainian president to help him advance his own kleptocratic and corrupt designs, subverting our national interests to his own."

Thomas Franck of CNBC: "... Donald Trump on Tuesday blamed Iran for planning an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and promised to hold Tehran 'fully responsible.' 'Iran killed an American contractor, wounding many. We strongly responded, and always will,' the president wrote on Twitter. 'Now Iran is orchestrating an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible.' 'In addition, we expect Iraq to use its forces to protect the Embassy, and so notified!' he added.... Trump's tweet came after dozens of angry Iraqi Shiite militia supporters stormed the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad and set fire to a reception area on the grounds earlier in the day. The Iraqi supporters, many dressed in military apparel, pushed into the compound using cars to break through its gate. The protesters hung a poster on the wall saying, 'America is an aggressor.'" Mrs. McC: I'm sure our embassy personnel feel a lot safer knowing Trump is threatening Iran & Iraq from the comfort of Mar-a-Lago.

Senate Race 2020. Justin Baragona of the Daily Beast: "Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski took to Twitter on Tuesday to announced that he will not run for Senate in New Hampshire.... 'After much consideration I have decided to forgo a campaign for the US Senate,' he tweeted. 'While taking on a career politician from the Washington swamp is a tall order, I am certain I would have won. My priorities remain my family and ensuring that @realDonaldTrump is re-elected POTUS.'" Mrs. McC: No, no, I would have won had I run. Corey has figured out the best way not to lose: don't even try. What a jerk. ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: A December poll showed incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) beating Lewandowski 58%-35%.

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Welcoming the new year in Auckland, New Zealand:

Greg Sargent of the Washington Post: Mitch "McConnell badly needs the media's both-sidesing instincts to hold firm against the brute facts of the situation. If Republicans bear the brunt of media pressure to explain why they don't want to hear from witnesses, that risks highlighting their true rationale: They adamantly fear new revelations precisely because they know Trump is guilty -- and that this corrupt scheme is almost certainly much worse than we can currently surmise. That possibility is underscored by the Times report [linked here yesterday], a chronology of Trump's decision to withhold aid to a vulnerable ally under assault while he and his henchmen extorted Ukraine into carrying out his corrupt designs. The report demonstrates in striking detail that inside the administration, the consternation over the legality and propriety of the aid freeze -- and confusion over Trump's true motives -- ran much deeper than previously known, implicating top Cabinet officials.... We now have a much clearer glimpse into the murky depths of just how much more these officials know about the scheme -- and just how much McConnell and Trump are determined to make sure we don't ever learn." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: To me, the most important effect of the NYT report is that it proves that Trump's top international affairs advisors -- the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense & National Security Advisor -- made him aware that by withholding the Ukraine funding he was working against U.S. security interests. Senators, the supposed triers of fact in the impeachment process, can no longer pretend Trump may have made a bad call but only because he didn't know what he was doing. He knew. All the aides who mattered ganged up and told him so, according to the Times story.

Kyle Cheney of Politico: "A federal judge on Monday scrapped an effort by a former top aide to John Bolton to determine whether he could be required to testify before House impeachment investigators, declaring the matter moot and outside the court's power to resolve. Charles Kupperman, who was Bolton's deputy when Bolton was national security adviser, filed suit in October after he was subpoenaed by the House Intelligence Committee but ordered to ignore the subpoena by ... Donald Trump. In his suit, Kupperman asked for a judge's help to resolve the conflicting demands. The matter was put before Judge Richard Leon, a federal judge in the D.C. District Court. But before Leon could weigh in, the House withdrew its subpoena for Kupperman's testimony, declaring it a transparent effort to stonewall the impeachment investigation and mire it in months of legal delays. Both the House and the White House asked Leon to dismiss the case, and Leon ultimately agreed." The New York Times story is here. ~~~

      ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Cheney characterizes the dismissal as freeing both Bolton & Kupperman from testifying, which is how I would have interpreted it, too. However, Neal Katyal was on the teevee & said dismissal of Kupperman's suit means Boltonlost his excuse not to testify inasmuch as Bolton has claimed he was waiting for a decision on the Kupperman suit before determining whether or not he would testify.

Mac Bishop, et al., of NBC News: "Trump's attempt to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy into investigating former Vice President Joe Biden has ... exposed the cracks in the West's response to an emboldened Russia, inflicted permanent damage on Ukraine and heightened the risk of Moscow extending its influence in the country, according to democracy advocates and military experts." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Betsy Swan of the Daily Beast: "Lev Parnas ... is looking to share more material with congressional investigators, according to a letter his lawyer has sent to a federal judge.... In the letter, Parnas'lawyer Joseph Bondy said the Justice Department will share materials with his client on Tuesday that it seized from his home and at his arrest. The materials include documents and the contents of an iPhone. Bondy then asked Judge Paul Oetken of the Southern District of New York to allow him to share those materials with the House Intelligence Committee.... The Justice Department has said it does not object to him giving the material to Congress."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd.

Two Girls Chatting. Mehdi Hasan of the Intercept: "... [Margaret] Brennan's interview with Ivanka [Trump] -- which was ... pegged to the new policy of paid parental leave for federal government workers -- could be considered a low point in 'Face the Nation's storied 65-year history.... To quote liberal writer Eric Boehlert, 'for most Sunday shows, the blueprint remains the same: book a Republican and let them talk.' When Brennan asked Ivanka to address the cruel and callous policy of family separation at the border and the '900 children who remain separated from their families,' the senior adviser to the president dodged the question, claiming 'immigration is not part of my portfolio,' before quickly changing the subject to human trafficking. Yet there was no follow-up, no pushback whatsoever, from the 'Face the Nation' host.&" (Also linked yesterday.) Related story linked yesterday. ~~~

~~~ Aaron Rupar of Vox: "... given the way it obscured key facts, host Margaret Brennan's approach to interviewing the president's elder daughter and senior adviser would've fit right in on Fox & Friends.... Brennan described Ivanka as 'vocal in your opposition' to the inhumane family separation policy her father implemented in April 2018, noting that she described the policy as a 'low point.' But Ivanka was not in fact 'vocal' in opposition to the policy -- in fact, the opposite is the case.... Ivanka ... only spoke out in opposition to the family separation policy after her father signed an executive order in June 2018 ending it. She was conspicuously silent in the days leading up to that point...."

Rudy Is Not the Only Trump Ally Messing with Maduro. Joshua Goodman of the AP: "Erik Prince, a major Republican donor and founder of controversial security firm Blackwater, has been referred to the U.S. Treasury Department for possible sanctions violations tied to his recent trip to Venezuela for a meeting with a top aide of President Nicolas Maduro, two senior U.S. officials said. There's no indication that Prince, whose sister is Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, will be sanctioned for the meeting last month in Caracas with Venezuela's Vice President Delcy Rodriguez. But the fact the visit was flagged underscores the concern of officials in the Trump administration over what appeared to be an unauthorized diplomatic outreach to Maduro.... It also marks something of a reversal for Prince, who earlier in 2019 was thought to have been pitching a plan to form a mercenary army to topple Maduro. A person familiar with Prince's visit said he had been asked to travel to Venezuela by an unidentified European businessman with longstanding ties to the oil-rich nation." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: We will never know how many of Trump's little buddies are running around the world acting as "back channels" for Trump & trying to put together shady deals. But it's fair to assume the level of corruption is staggering.

All the Best People, Ctd. Travis Gettys of the Raw Story: "... Donald Trump's White House hired an Ohio telemarketer who twice filed for bankruptcy for his telemarketing company and owes hundreds of thousands of dollars to the IRS. The president's 2016 campaign paid $1.2 million to Victory Solutions LLC, which owed the IRS and was facing numerous lawsuits, and its chief executive Shannon Burns went to work last year in the White House as a part-time advance associate, reported The Daily Beast." (The Daily Beast story is subscriber-firewalled.)

Julian Barnes of the New York Times: "The United States military on Sunday struck five targets in Iraq and Syria controlled by an Iranian-backed paramilitary group, the Pentagon said, a reprisal for a rocket attack on Friday that killed an American contractor." (This is an update & an expansion of a Reuters story linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Alissa Rubin & Ben Hubbard of the New York Times: "Iraq has been caught for years in a tug of war between its two most powerful patrons, the United States and Iran. In recent months, public opinion began to tilt against Iran, with street protests demanding an end to Tehran's pervasive influence. But American airstrikes that killed two dozen members of an Iranian-backed militia over the weekend have now made Washington the focus of public hostility, reducing the heat on Tehran and its proxies. Iraqi leaders accused the United States on Monday of violating Iraq's sovereignty and expressed fear that increasing tensions between the United States and Iran could escalate into a proxy war on Iraqi soil.... Anti-Iranian slogans have given way to anti-American ones. Demonstrators and others attacked what they deemed to be America's disproportionate response in killing 24 militiamen in retaliation for the death of one American contractor." ~~~

     ~~~ Update. Washington Post: "Hundreds of Iraqis converge on U.S. Embassy in Baghdad to protest airstrike that killed members of Iran-backed militia. A spokesman for the Kataib Hezbollah militia said the demonstrators plan to remain outside until the embassy shuts down and U.S. diplomats leave Iraq." @ 5 am ET, this is a breaking news story. The Hill has a story here.

Jesse Drucker & Jim Tankersley of the New York Times: "The overhaul of the federal tax law in 2017 was the signature legislative achievement of Donald J. Trump's presidency. The biggest change to the tax code in three decades, the law slashed taxes for big companies.... But big companies wanted more -- and, not long after the bill became law in December 2017, the Trump administration began transforming the tax package into a greater windfall for the world's largest corporations and their shareholders.... The process of writing the rules [that determine how laws are administered], conducted largely out of public view, can determine who wins and who loses. Starting in early 2018, senior officials in President Trump's Treasury Department were swarmed by lobbyists seeking to insulate companies from the few parts of the tax law that would have required them to pay more.... Thanks in part to the chaotic manner in which the bill was rushed through Congress -- a situation that gave the Treasury Department extra latitude to interpret a law that was, by all accounts, sloppily written -- the corporate lobbying campaign was a resounding success." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Presidential Race 2020

Annie Grayer & Ryan Nobles of CNN: "Sen. Bernie Sanders is in 'good health,' nearly three months after suffering a heart attack, the attending physician at the US Capitol said in a letter released Monday. The physician, Brian Monahan, said in a summary of the Vermont senator's health that Sanders is no longer taking several of the medications initially prescribed to him after the heart attack." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Will Sommer of the Daily Beast: "A Texas judge has ordered [Friend of Donald] Alex Jones and his InfoWars hoax website to pay more than $100,000 in court costs and legal fees, marking the latest court victory for a Sandy Hook family suing Jones for his promotion of conspiracy theories about the 2012 shooting."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Cristina Cabrera of TPM: "On Sunday, the New York Times revised conservative columnist Bret [Bedbug] Stephens' op-ed 'The Secrets of Jewish Genius,' which claimed that Ashkenazi Jews are intellectually superior, due to overwhelming backlash over the column citing a racist study. Shortly after the op-ed was published on Friday, critics assailed Stephens and the Times for pushing the kind of race science favored by white supremacists.... New York Times Magazine contributor Jody Rosen noted that one of the studies Stephens cited, 'Natural History of Ashkenazi Intelligence,' was co-authored by white supremacist and eugenicist Henry Harpending. In a lengthy editor's note, the Times stated it had removed the study from the op-ed. 'After publication Mr. Stephens and his editors learned that one of the paper's authors, who died in 2016, promoted racist views,' the note read. 'Mr. Stephens was not endorsing the study or its authors' views, but it was a mistake to cite it uncritically.' The Times also asserted that it was 'not [Stephens'] intent' to argue that 'Jews are genetically superior.' However, critics pointed out that ... Stephens, in fact, endorse[d] the study on Jewish intelligence by prefacing it with the sentence 'When it comes to Ashkenazi Jews, it's true.'..." ~~~

~~~ Jack Shafer of Politico: "The Times disavowal and re-edit (tellingly neither co-signed nor acknowledged by Stephens) was too little and too late...."

Mike Schneider of the AP: "The past year' population growth rate in the United States was the slowest in a century due to declining births, increasing deaths and the slowdown of international migration, according to figures released Monday by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. grew from 2018 to 2019 by almost a half percent, or about 1.5 million people, with the population standing at 328 million this year, according to population estimates. That's the slowest growth rate in the U.S. since 1917 to 1918, when the nation was involved in World War I, said William Frey, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution." Mrs. McC: Also in 1918, 500,000 to 675,000 people living in the U.S. died in the influenza pandemic. Obviously, slowing population growth leads to a slowing economy.

Beyond the Beltway

Kansas. Cop Caught on Tape. Ben Kesslen & Doha Madani of NBC News: "A Kansas police officer resigned Monday after fabricating a story that employees at a McDonald's wrote the words "F---ing Pig' on his coffee cup.... The ex-officer, who remained unidentified, is a former military police officer in the Army and had been on the small town's force for two months.... The McDonald's in Junction City, about 25 miles north of Herington near Fort Riley Army Base, said Sunday that after reviewing surveillance video, representatives were confident that was no employee wrote the message."

New York. Elisha Fieldstadt of NBC News: "Prosecutors on Monday filed federal hate crime charges against the 37-year-old man accused of storming a Hanukkah celebration at a rabbi's home in Monsey, New York, with a machete and wounding five people.... Authorities ... discovered handwritten journals in [the suspect's] home that contained anti-Semitic writings. On one page, he had drawn a Star of David and a Swastika, and written about 'Nazi culture' and 'Adolf Hitler,' according to a federal criminal complaint filed Monday." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

New York City. Ed Shanahan of the New York Times: "Michael J. Reynolds, a New York City police officer ... who is white, [was visiting Nashville, Tennessee, when he] kicked in a black woman's door in a drunken rage, threatening her and her sons with a racist slur and obscenities. 'I'll break every bone in your neck,' he said in a rant that included two expletives. He then fled to his nearby Airbnb rental just before the police arrived. This month, he was sentenced to 15 days in jail and three years' probation after pleading no contest to four misdemeanors as a result of the episode, court records show. As of Monday, though, he remained an officer, stirring a growing backlash against the New York Police Department. More than 10,000 people signed an online petition demanding his dismissal and supporting the woman whose home he invaded.... The Police Department said last week that Officer Reynolds was on 'modified duty' and that the disciplinary process was awaiting the Nashville case's conclusion. Asked about the matter again on Monday, a top department official said the process 'was moving forward and questioning will take place imminently.'" Read on. Reynolds' actions would terrify anyone, and the victims had done nothing whatsoever to provoke him.

New York City. Trump Was Right: Wind Energy Is Dangerous. Craig McCarthy of the New York Post: "A shoddy wind turbine fell apart in the Bronx on Monday when it couldn't handle its own power source -- gusty winds. The blade damaged a nearby car and an illuminated billboard when it flew off the 250-foot structure in Baychester at about 1:20 p.m., police said. There were no injuries reported. Local politicians rushed to the scene and blasted the 'hastily' constructed alternative-energy source. The turbine started spinning on Dec. 17, providing power to nearby buildings, according to the Bronx Times."

West Virginia. Janelle Griffith of NBC News: "West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice said Monday he has approved the recommendations from a report calling for the firing of all correctional officer cadets who participated in a Nazi salute during a class photo. The photo of Basic Training Class 18, released by the state's Department of Military Affairs and Public Safety on Dec. 5 with the employees' faces blurred, shows about 30 uniformed trainees posing with their right arms raised, most of them with their hands also extended. The words 'Hail Byrd!' also appear at the top of the image. Three people -- two academy trainers and a cadet -- were fired days after the photo was released and 34 others suspended without pay amid the investigation by the department and its Division of Corrections and Rehabilitation.... The use of the gesture began two to three weeks into training as one that the cadets have described as a 'sign of respect' for an individual identified as 'Instructor Byrd.' Byrd told investigators she was unaware of the 'historical or racial implications of the gesture' and reported it was 'simply a greeting,' according to the report. But her statement was contradicted by multiple sources, the report released Monday says." Byrd told a staffer that the salute signified that "I'm a hard-ass like Hitler."

Way Beyond

Japan/Lebanon. Emily Flitter of the New York Times: "Carlos Ghosn, the former chairman of Nissan who was facing charges of financial wrongdoing in Japan, has fled the country, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Mr. Ghosn is currently in Beirut, Lebanon, said two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Mr. Ghosn is a citizen of France, Brazil and Lebanon. The circumstances under which Mr. Ghosn left Japan were not immediately clear. But he enjoys widespread public support in Lebanon, where he spent much of his youth and retains family connections." A CNN story is here.