The Commentariat -- December 5, 2018

Afternoon Update:

Damian Carrington of the Guardian: "Global carbon emissions will jump to a record high in 2018, according to a report, dashing hopes a plateau of recent years would be maintained. It means emissions are heading in the opposite direction to the deep cuts urgently needed, say scientists, to fight climate change. The rise is due to the growing number of cars on the roads and a renaissance of coal use and means the world remains on the track to catastrophic global warming. However, the report's authors said the emissions trend can still be turned around by 2020, if cuts are made in transport, industry and farming emissions.... Almost all countries are contributing to the rise, with emissions in China up 4.7%, in the US by 2.5% and in India by 6.3% in 2018."

John Wagner & Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "... mourners from across the nation gathered in Washington to pay their respects and celebrate the life of former president George H.W. Bush at a state funeral at Washington National Cathedral. With President Trump and four living former U.S. presidents in attendance, Bush was remembered as 'America's last great soldier-statesman' by biographer Jon Meacham, one of four people delivering eulogies."

Asawin Suebsaeng & Lachlan Markay of the Daily Beast: "Since the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump's aides and advisers have tried to convince him of the importance of tackling the national debt. Sources close to the president say he has repeatedly shrugged it off, implying that he doesn't have to worry about the money owed to America's creditors -- currently about $21 trillion -- because he won't be around to shoulder the blame when it becomes even more untenable."

A GOP Screw-Democracy Power Grab in Wisconsin. Mitch Smith of the New York Times: "After a rancorous, sleepless night of debate, Republican lawmakers early Wednesday pushed through a sweeping set of bills that will limit the power of Wisconsin's newly elected Democrats, including the incoming governor and attorney general. The legislation, which Democrats vehemently opposed and protesters chanted their anger over, passed through the Republican-held State Legislature after hours of closed-door meetings and some amendments. The votes fell largely along party lines; no Democrats supported the measures."

Adam Satariano of the New York Times: "Emails and other internal Facebook documents released by a British parliamentary committee on Wednesday show how the social media giant gave favored companies like Airbnb, Lyft and Netflix special access to users- data.... The committee said the documents show Facebook entering into agreements with select companies to allow them access to data after the company made policy changes that restricted access for others. Other emails show the company debating whether to give app developers that spent money advertising with it more access to its data. In other instances, Facebook discussed shutting off access to companies it viewed as competitors."

In the Spirit of the Season. CBS/AP: "The commander of a Minneapolis police precinct has been replaced following uproar over Christmas tree decorations that the mayor said amounted to a 'racist display.' The Christmas tree at the Fourth Precinct station on the city's north side was decorated with items such as Newport cigarettes, police crime tape, a can of malt liquor and a Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen cup. Minneapolis Police spokesman John Elder confirmed Monday that inspector Aaron Biard had been removed as commander of the precinct.... Two Minneapolis officers were placed on paid leave Friday for their apparent involvement in the decorations. Mayor Jacob Frey called the decorations 'despicable' and said they amounted to a 'racist display.' A picture of the tree circulated online before the items were removed." Thanks to Akhilleus for the lead.

*****

PSA. Nathalie Sczublewski of NBC Washington: "... Donald Trump declared Wednesday, Dec. 5 a National Day of Mourning in remembrance of former President George H.W. Bush.... President Trump released a statement proclaiming that out of respect for the 41st president of the United States, the United States Postal Service will suspend regular mail deliveries, retail and administrative activities on Wednesday, Dec. 5." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: If you were planning a trip to the post office today, as I was, better change your plans. ...

... Sheryl Stolberg & Emily Cochrane of the New York Times: "As the body of Former President George Bush lay in state in the Capitol Rotunda on Tuesday, mourners from across the country a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/04/us/politics/bush-capitol-visitors.html" target="_blank">poured into the Capitol to pay tribute to a man whose inaugural vision of a 'kinder' and 'gentler' Republicanism has become a relic of another era.... Tuesday's visitation came as official Washington, and members of the Bush family, prepared for his funeral service on Wednesday morning at the National Cathedral. The services in Washington will be attended by nearly a dozen current and former heads of state, including Prince Charles; King Abdullah II of Jordan and his wife, Queen Rania; and Lech Walesa, the former president of Poland." ...

How Two Republican party leaders honored George H.W. Bush yesterday:

1. David Nakamura of the Washington Post: "President Trump traversed a wide political chasm Tuesday evening when he personally welcomed George W. Bush, his occasional foil, to Blair House, the presidential guest quarters across Pennsylvania Avenue from the White House. But the actual distance was just 250 yards -- a route Trump and his wife Melania traveled in the presidential parade limousine, with a motorcade of at least seven other vehicles.... The need for the motorcade, however, prompted questions, and a healthy dose of speculation, about why the Trumps were unable -- or unwilling -- to simply walk across the street.... 'Bone spurs?' asked Sam Vinograd, a CNN political analyst and also a former Obama national security veteran...." ....

2. Amy Wang & Mark Berman of the Washington Post: "Former senator Bob Dole, who had twice competed with Bush for the Republican presidential nomination, made an emotional appearance Tuesday afternoon in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda. At 95, Dole [is] ... frail now, in a wheelchair.... An aide helped Dole out of his wheelchair so he could stand briefly before Bush's body. With his left hand, Dole gave a brief salute to Bush, a fellow World War II veteran. Then Dole's hand dropped and he fell back into his wheelchair, saying nothing but gazing ahead.... Jeb Bush, the former president's son, said on Twitter of the moment: 'Just incredible. Thank you Senator Dole.'" (Mrs. McC: Dole saluted with his left hand because his right arm was shattered during World War II.) ...

      ... Mrs. McCrabbie: One might want to blame Melanie's stilletos for the 250-yard drive, but Trump has a history of driving, sans Melanie, very short distances that other people walk comfortably or where vehicles are verboten. He's a fat old guy who has led a sedentary life. I don't think he can walk more than a few yards, as when stalking Hillary on a debate stage.

Matt Phillips of the New York Times: "Stocks fell on Tuesday, after President Trump sowed confusion over the status of a truce in the trade war between the United States and China, while the bond market, often considered a safe haven for investors, sent a stark warning about expectations for an economic slowdown. The S&P 500 dropped more than 3 percent, with economically sensitive financial and transportation stocks sliding. The warning from the bond market came through what's known as the yield curve, the difference between interest rates on short-term United States government bonds, such as two-year notes, and longer term bonds, such as the 10-year Treasury.... The gap between the two-year and 10-year yields has decreased to less than 0.12 percentage points -- the lowest it has been since before the financial crisis. Many analysts say it could soon fall below zero, a phenomenon known as an 'inversion.'... In the past 60 years, every recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve, according to research from the San Francisco Fed." ...

... "Tariff Man." Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: "President Trump warned China on Tuesday that if President Xi Jinping failed to make good on the trade promises reached during their weekend meeting, the United States would impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports. Referring to himself as a 'Tariff Man,' Mr. Trump issued a series of tweets that only further deepened the murkiness surrounding the trade truce that the two leaders said they had reached on Saturday evening on the sidelines of the G-20. Stocks, which rallied Monday on the potential for a pact, began a downward spiral on Tuesday as confusion set in about whether an agreement had truly been reached.... On Monday, the White House said that Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative who is a longtime China skeptic, would lead the talks with Beijing. The choice of Mr. Lighthizer, who has a reputation as a tough negotiator, conveyed a tough road ahead.... Members of Mr. Trump's economic team continued to temper optimism about a deal on Tuesday." ...

... "You Don't Understand Tariffs, Man." New York Times Editors: "... the current [trade war] is hurting both the United States and China, as well as rattling around like a loose part in the global economic machine. Both nations are heading for economic slowdowns.... Whatever the rationale for imposing them, tariffs are taxes, and consumers were facing a big hike in the Trump tax in January. Meanwhile, the president has little to show for his trade war. He has been obsessed with reducing the trade deficit, which stood at $566 billion last year. Yet the trade deficit is rising, not falling, because Americans like buying inexpensive goods from foreign nations (like, say, China). And the dollar has strengthened, which generally makes imports cheaper. Nor have jobs come flooding back to the United States. Instead, tariffs prompted some American companies to shift their sourcing of goods from China to other parts of Asia.... The uncertainty created by Mr. Trump's threats of a trade war escalation has been even more damaging." ...

... Damian Paletta & Philip Rucker of the Washington Post: "After his Argentine steak dinner last weekend with Chinese President Xi Jinping, President Trump announced that they had reached an 'incredible deal' to temporarily suspend his trade war. But days later, Trump declared, 'I am a Tariff man.' Trump last week proposed stripping away electric-car subsidies from General Motors as punishment for the automotive giant moving to cease production at plants in the United States and Canada. But then his chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said the White House would do no such thing. Targeting a single company, he explained, would be illegal. Then there is the way Trump talks about how the economy works -- imprecise at best, ignorant at worst.... The whiplash nature of Trump's economic policies and pronouncements bore tangible consequences on Tuesday, when U.S. stock markets cratered amid investor skepticism of Trump's China talks. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 799 points, or 3.1 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 3.2 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 3.8 percent. Global markets demand consistency and reliability, but Trump delivers neither. Instead, he makes knee-jerk announcements that surprise investors, lawmakers and even some of his own aides and advisers, who sometimes find themselves reversing course depending on the president's whims."

** William Saletan of Slate: "When the CIA catches dictators doing bad things, the dictators often pay lobbyists to lie about what's been discovered. Now the dictators can save their money because ... Donald Trump is doing their hatchet work against the CIA for free. Trump has dismissed the agency's findings about Russian interference in the 2016 election. He has brushed off U.S. intelligence showing that North Korea is building new missiles. And he's lying about the CIA's assessment of a murder by the Saudi government.... Some of Trump's statements [about Jamal Khashoggi's murder] were lawyerly and evasive. Others -- 'They have feelings' -- were egregiously misleading. And some -- 'The CIA points it both ways' -- were outright lies.... Other officials [-- Sarah Sanders, Mike Pompeo, Jim Mattis --] joined Trump in bending the facts.... Trump's perpetual dishonesty about U.S. intelligence is a threat to national security and American democracy. It's also a manifestation of his fundamental disloyalty to the United States." Saletan does a nice job of demonstrating how intelligence officers/whistleblowers' repeated leaks to the press not only informed the public but also forced Trump to allow CIA Director Gina Haspel to brief Senators on the Khashoggi matter.

Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: So just yesterday, we learned that President Buhari of Nigeria was obliged to squelch rumors that he was dead & a body double had replaced him. Already Jonathan Allen of NBC News is suggesting that, likewise, the Real Donald Trump is locked in the residence tweeting away, while the public Donald Trump is a body double who behaves himself. Well, Allen doesn't exactly imply all that, but I'm inferring it from his report:

     "... for the moment, even some of ... Donald Trump's toughest critics are taking note of a shift in his behavior -- from reliably disruptive to seemingly disciplined. That's been especially evident since he departed Washington for the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires last week, where he gave a public cold shoulder to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, signed a trade deal with Mexico and Canada, canceled a press conference so as not to distract from the mourning of President George H.W. Bush and pulled back from his trade war with China. On the flight home, he said he would agree to a two-week stopgap bill to avoid a government shutdown after months of threatening a showdown over Congress' refusal to provide full funding for his promised border wall. And he has exhibited all the grace in handling Bush's state funeral that he failed to show when Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., died just a few months ago.... Twitter Trump remains impulsive, fiery and always spoiling for a fight."

This Russia Thing, Etc., Ctd.

** Carol Leonnig, et al., of the Washington Post: "Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III on Tuesday recommended that former national security adviser Michael Flynn serve no prison time, citing his 'substantial assistance' with several ongoing investigations, according to a new court filing.... In [the sentencing recommendation], prosecutors said Flynn has assisted with several ongoing investigations -- participating in 19 interviews with federal prosecutors. Tuesday's filing is heavily redacted, continuing to shroud in secrecy the details of what Flynn told Mueller's team about his interactions with Trump and other top officials. But the document noted that Flynn has assisted the special counsel with its 'investigation concerning links or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the Trump campaign.'" ...

... Adam Goldman & Eileen Sullivan of the New York Times: “'His early cooperation was particularly valuable because he was one of the few people with long-term and firsthand insight' into the subject of Mr. Mueller's investigation -- Russia's election interference and whether any Trump associates conspired, prosecutors wrote in a sentencing recommendation memorandum.... 'The defendant deserves credit for accepting responsibility in a timely fashion and substantially assisting the government,' prosecutors wrote." ...

     ... Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: By Trump's lights, Flynn is a "weak person" who lacks "guts." ...

... Marcy Wheeler of emptywheel: "The section [of the largely-redacted addendum to the sentencing memorandum] on cooperation describes Flynn's assistance in three investigations. The Mueller investigation is actually the second thing listed, which I take to suggest that the the Mueller investigation is just the second most important. My wildarse guess is that these consist of A) a criminal national security investigation..., B) the Mueller investigation, and C) a counterintelligence investigation into the Russians."

Subpoenas, Subpoenas, Everywhere. Jonathan O'Connell, et al., of the Washington Post: "The attorneys general for Maryland and the District of Columbia are issuing subpoenas for financial records and other documents from more than a dozen of President Trump's private entities Tuesday as part of an ongoing lawsuit alleging that the president's business violates the Constitution's ban on gifts or payments from foreign governments. The subpoenas seek details on some of the most closely held secrets of Trump's presidency: Which foreign governments have paid the Trump Organization money? How much? And for what? All of the documents relate to Trump's D.C. hotel, which is at the center of the emoluments case because of events foreign governments have held there and the federal lease that allows the business to operate. In addition to documents from more than a dozen related to the president's company, including the trust that holds his personal assets, Maryland's Brian E. Frosh (D) and the District's Karl A. Racine (D), are seeking documents from managers of the Walter E. Washington Convention Center and a slew of competing Washington hotels as part of an effort to try to show Trump's property is unfairly siphoning business from competitors, according to the offices of the two attorneys general." And so forth.

The mob takes the Fifth. If you're innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment? -- Donald Trump, after some of Hillary Clinton's aides invoked their Fifth Amendment rights, 2016

When you have your staff taking the Fifth Amendment, taking the Fifth so they're not prosecuted, when you have the man that set up the illegal server taking the Fifth, I think it's disgraceful. -- Donald Trump, first debate with Hillary Clinton, 2016 ...

... Kyle Cheney of Politico: "... Roger Stone invoked his Fifth Amendment protection as he declined to share documents and testimony with members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, according to a letter posted Tuesday by the committee's top Democrat, Sen. Dianne Feinstein."

Zoe Tillman of BuzzFeed News: "More than 400 former Justice Department officials and attorneys have signed a statement saying they're 'disturbed' by ... Donald Trump's appointment of Matthew Whitaker as acting attorney general. The list of signatories includes more than 300 former career Justice Department employees who served under both Democratic and Republican administrations, according to Protect Democracy, a government watchdog group involved in organizing the effort. It also includes political appointees, mostly appointed by Democratic presidents." The report includes the statement. The names & titles of the signators is here. ...

... Jed Shugerman in Slate: "So far..., it appears that [Matt] Whitaker has not sought to interfere with Robert Mueller. That would be wise. If he were to work against the investigation, Whitaker could be putting himself in infamous company: indicted attorneys general and government lawyers who aided [Richard] Nixon's crimes.... If Whitaker had an arrangement with Trump to take the position in order to impede Mueller, he could be in jeopardy for conspiracy to obstruct justice.... Firing Mueller (for cause) may be technically within Whitaker's power, but doing so with the 'corrupt purpose' to impede a looming criminal investigation would constitute obstruction of justice. If Whitaker fires Mueller with pretextual cause, he would run the risk of a criminal charge himself. Whitaker's potential personal legal troubles, though, raise the possibility that he might abuse his powers for his own benefit."

Eliana Johnson of Politico: "Pat Cipollone will start his new job as White House counsel on Monday, following a nearly two-month delay since his appointment, with dwindling time to prepare for a coming onslaught of House Democratic oversight demands.... Cipollone also starts at a time when Special Counsel Robert Mueller's Russia probe is making major new waves...."

Twitter's "Cardcarrying anti-Trumpers" Invade Rudy's Tweeter Space. Rudy Giuliani, who hilariously enough is Trump's advisor on cybersecurity, doesn't know what links are. Or Web addresses. Much less URL extensions (which don't include dot-either). Adam Raymond of New York: Last Friday, "in his haste, or his attempt to emulate Trump, Giuliani included several typos in [a] tweet [he sent], including the omission of a space at the start of a sentence that started with the word 'in.' The placement of a period and no spaces between 'G-20' and 'in' resulted in an inadvertent hyperlink showing up in Giuliani's tweet. 'Mueller filed an indictment just as the President left for G-20.In July he indicted the Russians who will never come here just before he left for Helsinki.Either could have been done earlier or later. Out of control!Supervision please?'... A clever scamp quickly snatched up the URL G-20.in and set up this page:

"... That's pretty embarrassing by itself, but Giuliani made the error even worse Tuesday night when he blamed the hyperlink in Friday's tweet on Twitter, which he accused of allowing 'someone to invade my text.'... 'Twitter allowed someone to invade my text with a disgusting anti-President message. The same thing-period no space-occurred later and it didn't happen. Don't tell me they are not committed cardcarrying anti-Trumpers. Time Magazine also may fit that description. FAIRNESS PLEASE'" Mrs. McC: This requires a full investigaton.SPECIAL COUNSEL PLEASE

Hamed Aleaziz of BuzzFeed News: "The Trump administration is considering charging immigrants a fee to apply for asylum protection in the United States, according to sources close to the administration. The proposal, included in a not-yet-finalized draft regulation, would charge applicants, if they are already residing in the US, $50 to apply for asylum. Currently, there is no fee to enter an 'affirmative asylum' application. The fee would not apply to those who claim a fear of persecution at ports of entry or those who apply for the protections while in deportation proceedings. There would be no waiver of the fee for those who cannot afford to pay the $50." Mrs. McC: This from the same SOB who gave himself a multi-million-dollar tax break.

Zack Ford of ThinkProgress: "The Trump administration seems to have edited out LGBTQ protections in the new North American trade agreement with Canada and Mexico (known as the USMCA). The change, an apparent gesture to a group of the most anti-LGBTQ members of Congress, ensures the administration's own anti-LGBTQ efforts can continue without undermining the agreement. Originally, the drafted trade agreement called on all three countries to establish 'policies that protect workers against employment discrimination on the basis of sex, including with regard to pregnancy, sexual harassment, sexual orientation, gender identity.' In the final version, however, a new footnote was added that significantly undermines the United States' obligation to uphold these protections." --s (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

E. A. Crunden of ThinkProgress: "The Trump administration is planning to revise its estimates for its fuel efficiency standards rollback, admitting that fewer lives would be saved than previously touted. That concession is a blow to efforts to walk back Obama-era fuel efficiency standards imposed to combat pollution.... At issue is the [Trump] administration's methodology, which critics say failed to properly account for the length of time owners keep their cars, in addition to possible mileage on newer cars with better fuel efficiency." --s (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Kevin Bogardus & Corbin Hiar of E&E News: EPA chief "Andrew Wheeler met with a range of companies and trade groups with interests before EPA after he took charge at the agency. Wheeler's official August calendar, an 85-page document obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, describes what he was doing during his first full month as acting EPA administrator. It is the first official Wheeler calendar E&E News has received that covers his tenure as acting boss. Wheeler was scheduled to call or meet with executives for the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, BP America, Delta Air Lines and Valero Energy Corp. during that month, according to the document. In addition, he was slated to take meetings with agricultural interests, like the American Soybean Association and CropLife America. Wheeler was also scheduled to meet with the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that has influenced Trump administration policies. The calendar also shows that Wheeler wasn't meeting with auto industry representatives around the time the Trump administration proposed dialing back Obama-era clean car rules."

Eric Schmitt & Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times: "A bipartisan group of senior senators on Tuesday said that a classified briefing by the C.I.A. director had only solidified their belief that Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, ordered the killing of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi. Prince Mohammed 'is a wrecking ball,' Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, told reporters after an hourlong briefing by Gina Haspel, the C.I.A. director. 'I think he's complicit in the murder of Mr. Khashoggi to the highest level possible.' Richard Shelby, Republican of Alabama and the Appropriations Committee chairman, echoed that 'all evidence points to that, that all this leads back to the crown prince.'... The clear and biting assessment put Republican senators at odds with the White House, which has steadfastly refused to cast blame on Saudi Arabia's leadership for the death of Mr. Khashoggi...." ...

... Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "Republican senators emerged from a briefing Tuesday about journalist Jamal Khashoggi's killing and essentially accused the Trump administration of misleading the country about it -- and even covering it up for Saudi Arabia. In remarks after a briefing from CIA Director Gina Haspel, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) suggested there is no plausible way that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman didn't order the killing of Khashoggi, a Washington Post contributing columnist, and said that the evidence is overwhelming. This is completely contrary to the narrative that has been put forward by President Trump and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo. Trump has said it's unknowable whether the crown prince was actually behind it -- despite the CIA concluding this with 'high confidence' -- while Pompeo said last week that there was no 'direct reporting' implicating him.... Corker also suggested that the briefing last week, which featured Pompeo and Mattis but not Haspel, was entirely misleading." ...

... Meh. "Journalists Disappear All Over the Country." Daily Beast: "During an interview with CNN's Brianna Keilar on Tuesday, Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT) defended ... Donald Trump's decision to stand by Saudi Arabia despite overwhelming evidence that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was behind the murder of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Admitting that it's possible MBS ordered the killing, Stewart, who serves on the House Intelligence Committee, said, 'We have to have to have a relationship with some players that we don't agree with. Journalists disappear all over the country. 20 journalists have been killed in Mexico. You don't think it happens in Turkey and China? Of course it does. And yet we have to have a relationship with these individuals, or with these countries." ...

... "Meet Your Modern GOP," Ctd. Matt Shuham of TPM: "Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT), a member of the House Intelligence Committee, argued Tuesday for maintaining a close diplomatic relationship with Saudi Arabia, despite the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, because 'journalists disappear all over the country.'" --s

Election 2018

Alex Isenstadt & John Bresnahan of Politico: "The House GOP campaign arm suffered a major hack during the 2018 election, exposing thousands of sensitive emails to an outside intruder, according to three senior party officials. The email accounts of four senior aides at the National Republican Congressional Committee were surveilled for several months, the party officials said. The intrusion was detected in April by an NRCC vendor, who alerted the committee and its cybersecurity contractor. An internal investigation was initiated and the FBI was alerted to the attack, said the officials.... However, senior House Republicans -- including Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) -- were not informed of the hack until Politico contacted the NRCC on Monday with questions about the episode. Rank-and-file House Republicans were not told, either. Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), who served as NRCC chairman this past election cycle, did not respond to repeated requests for comment.... Party officials would not say when the hack began or who was behind it, although they privately believe it was a foreign agent due to the nature of the attack." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: I'm not the hacker but I know what the "sensitive" e-mails said: "Let's cheat this guy. Let's steal some ballots. Let's not let "those people" vote in Georgia." And so forth. ...

... MEANWHILE, Democratic Women Do It Better:

... Alex Roarty of McClatchyDC: "At every step of the 2018 election, House Democrats at the DCCC relied heavily on a data and analytics team that guided the committee through two years of tumultuous politics and an ever-fluctuating path back to the majority. The results speak for themselves.... They were the party's largest House gains in a single campaign since 1974. DCCC officials were also delighted that, in an election where the party earned overwhelming support for women and benefited from a surge of female candidates, the team analyzing the numbers behind-the-scenes was also led by three women: Rosa Mendoza, who ran the analytics team at the group's independent expenditure operation, Amber Carrier, the group's director of polling and modeling, and [Claire] Low, the targeting director." --s

Florida. William March of The Tampa Bay Times: "Newly elected [Republican] congressman Ross Spano has acknowledged that his campaign financing 'may have been in violation' of federal law. In a filing with the Federal Elections Commission which Spano released publicly Saturday afternoon, he acknowledged borrowing $180,000 from two people he has described as personal friends from June through October this year, and then lending his campaign $167,000 in roughly the same time period.... When he made the loans to his campaign, Spano said on campaign finance reports that the money came from his 'personal funds.'... Several election law experts have said that if Spano's loans to his campaign came ... from money borrowed from friends, it appears to violate campaign finance law." --s (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Georgia. Richard Fausset of the New York Times: "Widespread anger in Georgia over a voting system that Democrats believed to be rigged against them was not enough to prevent a Republican candidate from winning a runoff on Tuesday for secretary of state, the chief overseer of the state's elections. Brad Raffensperger, an engineer from the Atlanta suburbs and a member of the State House, defeated John Barrow, a Democrat who supported overhauling the election system that some in his party said had helped Republicans 'steal' the closely fought Georgia governor's race last month.... Uncertified tallies at 11 p.m. showed Mr. Raffensperger with about 53 percent of the vote in the runoff, compared with 47 percent for Mr. Barrow."

North Carolina. Mike DeBonis of the Washington Post: "The incoming House majority leader said Democrats might refuse to seat a North Carolina Republican next year unless and until 'substantial' questions about the integrity of his election are resolved. Rep. Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.), the current minority whip, made the comments to reporters Tuesday as North Carolina election officials investigate whether an operative hired by Republican candidate Mark Harris illegally collected incomplete ballots from voters. The probe has delayed the certification of Harris's narrow victory in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, and the state officials could decide to call for a new election. Harris and Democrat Dan McCready are separated by 905 votes, according to unofficial returns. But Hoyer's comments throw into doubt whether, if Harris's win is ultimately certified, he would be sworn in as a member." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Dana Milbank: The Republican party, having lost the votes of normal, decent people in the Age of Trump, has resorted to a strategy of thievery. Milbank lists numerous cases on point.

** Ian Millhiser of ThinkProgress: "A quarter century ago, America was approaching a consensus regarding how our Constitution should be read.... All of that changed after the late President George H.W. Bush placed Justice Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court. Justice Thomas may be the most underestimated person in American law. As I wrote last June, 'no justice did more to shape a political movement's sense of what it can achieve through litigation.'... His plans to dismantle the federal administrative state now dominate both the Federalist Society and the Trump administration. His opinions suggesting that much of the New Deal and the Great Society are unconstitutional taught a generation of conservative law students to dream of a world where every law they disagree with is struck down by the Supreme Court.... No one could win a presidential election running on these policies.... But what Clarence Thomas taught the conservative movement is that it doesn't need to campaign openly on its most radical ideas. Presidents can run on much more popular ideas and even govern with relative moderation, and allow their judicial nominees to do the heavy lifting for them. They may even be remembered as moderates despite the actions of their nominees. Just look at George H.W. Bush." --s (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Matt Ford of the New Republic on the effects of the processes of Clarence Thomas' confirmation. On, and this: Thomas' "replacement of [Thurgood] Marshall also produced one of the largest ideological swings for a single seat in the court's modern history. The story of Supreme Court nominations is a story of what-ifs, and Marshall's retirement is perhaps the most poignant of all for liberals: The civil-rights icon died two years after he retired on January 23, 1999 -- three days after Bill Clinton's inauguration. Had Clinton chosen his successor, Bush v. Gore may have been decided differently, and the last two decades of American history would be unrecognizable."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. R.I.P. Edition. Jane Coaston of Vox: "The future of the conservative magazine the Weekly Standard is at risk as the magazine's ownership, MediaDC, is reportedly refocusing its attention on its other main publication, the Washington Examiner. And the Daily Caller is reporting that the magazine could be shut down as soon as December 14, though the company that owns MediaDC (and thus TWS) told CNN that it is continuing to explore possibilities and 'does not have any news to share' at this point. As one source told me, 'This is not about dwindling subscribers. This is about strip-mining TWS for its assets' -- namely, the magazine's subscriber lists. At the heart of the troubles is the Weekly Standard's turn against Trumpism, which has proven a losing bet in a conservative movement that has increasingly embraced the president. MediaDC reportedly wants to jettison the anti-Trump brand of the Weekly Standard but use its subscribers to bolster the more pro-Trump -- or at least Trump-agnostic -- Examiner."

Your Wednesday Chuckle. Noor Al-Sibai of RawStory: "Former White House adviser Steve Bannon was supposed to headline a sex robot conference [the Fourth Annual Congress on Love and Sex with Robots] -- and has lost multiple speaking gigs since it was announced. The Montana Kaimin, a student newspaper at the University of Montana, reported Tuesday that the Athenian Parrhesia Free Speech Forum, a debate event Bannon was supposed to participate in, was cancelled after a growing outcry from the UM community.... The sex robot conference itself was cancelled alongside the 15th International Conference on Advances in Computer Entertainment Technology, the Missoula Current reported." Includes hilarious tweeter reactions. --safari: Or should we weep, knowing this walking disease is one of the most influential blowhards in right-wing politics?

Presidential Election 2020

Matt Viser of the Washington Post: "Beto O'Rourke, weighing whether to mount a 2020 presidential bid, met recently with Barack Obama at his post-presidency offices in Washington. The meeting, which was held Nov. 16 at the former president's offices in Foggy Bottom, came as former Obama aides have encouraged the Democratic House member to run, seeing him as capable of the same kind of inspirational campaign that caught fire in the 2008 presidential election. The meeting was the first sign of Obama getting personally involved in conversations with O'Rourke, who, despite his November loss in a U.S. Senate race in Texas, has triggered more recent discussion and speculation than any other candidate in the burgeoning 2020 field.... The former president has reportedly met with several potential 2020 candidates, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu (D). He is in the awkward position of trying to ensure his party wins back the White House, but without weighing in too aggressively in a primary that could consist of his former vice president (Joe Biden), a longtime friend (former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick) and some of his former Cabinet officials (Eric H. Holder Jr., his attorney general, and Julián Castro, his housing secretary). Obama's stated mission has been to build a new generation of Democratic leaders, and two weeks ago he said that O'Rourke, who is 46, reminded him of himself."

Mike Memoli of NBC News: "Former Vice President Joe Biden on Monday said his decision on whether to enter the 2020 presidential race will rest on a whether he and his family are 'ready,' even as he argued that his strengths as a potential candidate far outweigh any perceived liabilities. Biden's comments came during a brief tour promoting the paperback release of his 2017 memoir, 'Promise Me, Dad,' in which he details how the death of his eldest son, Beau, from brain cancer kept him out of the 2016 presidential race. 'I think I'm the most qualified person in the country to be president. The issues that we face as a country today are the issues that I've worked on my whole life -- the plight of the middle class and foreign policy,' Biden told an audience in Montana, according to The Missoula Current. 'But my family and I need to decide as a unit whether we're ready -- we do everything as a family.'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Natasha Korecki, et al., of Politico: "Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is calling close allies and informing them he is not running for president in 2020, sources close to the governor tell Politico. Patrick informed staff and advisers of his decision today, the sources say, with an announcement to come as soon as this week."

Justin Wise of the Hill: "Michael Avenatti, the attorney for adult-film actress Stormy Daniels, announced Tuesday that he will not run for president in 2020, ending speculation that he could challenge President Trump. 'After consultation with my family and at their request, I have decided not to seek the presidency of the U.S. in 2020,' Avenatti said in a statement shared on Twitter. 'I do not make this decision lightly -- I make it out of respect for my family. But for their concerns, I would run.'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Mrs. McCrabbie: If you wish to announce you are not running for president -- or you are running for president -- you may do so here.

Sausage Fest. Gillian Tan & Katia Porzecanski of Bloomberg: "Call it the Pence Effect, after U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who has said he avoids dining alone with any woman other than his wife. In finance, the overarching impact can be, in essence, gender segregation. Interviews with more than 30 senior executives [on Wall Street] suggest many are spooked by #MeToo and struggling to cope. 'It's creating a sense of walking on eggshells,' said David Bahnsen, a former managing director at Morgan Stanley who's now an independent adviser overseeing more than $1.5 billion.... Now, more than a year into the #MeToo movement ... Wall Street risks becoming more of a boy's club, rather than less of one." --s (Also linked yesterday.)

Rachel Abrams & Edmund Lee of the New York Times: "Facing multiple sexual misconduct allegations and fearing his career as an entertainment titan was over, Leslie Moonves, the chief executive of CBS, destroyed evidence and misled investigators in an attempt to preserve his reputation and save a lucrative severance deal, according to a draft of a report prepared for the company's board.... The report, a copy of which was reviewed by The New York Times, says Mr. Moonves 'engaged in multiple acts of serious nonconsensual sexual misconduct in and outside of the workplace, both before and after he came to CBS in 1995.' The report includes previously undisclosed allegations of sexual misconduct against him. The lawyers who conducted the inquiry wrote that they had spoken with Mr. Moonves four times and found him to be 'evasive and untruthful at times and to have deliberately lied about and minimized the extent of his sexual misconduct.'"

Julie Brown of the Miami Herald: "A trial that could have allowed the victims of serial molester Jeffrey Epstein to finally tell their stories from a witness stand was aborted Tuesday when it was announced in court that the case had been settled. It ended with an apology -- not to the dozens of women who were sexually abused by Epstein as underage girls, but to the lawyer who represented them. There is also a monetary settlement, which is undisclosed." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Beyond the Beltway

Alabama. Daniel Victor of the New York Times: "A black man killed by the police in an Alabama mall in November was shot three times from behind, according to a forensic examination commissioned by the man's family. The finding, announced in a news conference on Monday, was seen by the man's family and lawyers as evidence he was running away and posed no threat to the officer who shot him. Emantic Fitzgerald Bradford Jr., 21, was fatally shot in the middle of a panicked crowd at the Riverchase Galleria in Hoover, Ala., on Nov. 22, as officers responded to reports of gunshots on Thanksgiving night. Witnesses said Mr. Bradford, who was legally carrying a handgun, was directing shoppers to safety. But the authorities publicly identified him as the gunman, an initial misidentification they retracted a day later." (Also linked yesterday.)

Michigan & Wisconsin. "Banana Republic Dictators." Allan Smith of NBC News: "Democrats fought back Monday as Republican legislators in Wisconsin and Michigan moved to strip power from them after the GOP lost a series of crucial races last month. In Wisconsin, Republicans pressed ahead with a lame-duck session -- the first held in eight years -- to give GOP Gov. Scott Walker the opportunity to limit the power of his successor, Democratic Gov.-elect Tony Evers. The Republican measures would also change the date of the 2020 presidential primary to benefit a conservative state Supreme Court justice and limit early voting. If passed, the state Senate and Assembly could vote on the measures on Tuesday.... In Michigan, meanwhile, Republicans introduced bills late last week to diminish the powers of the incoming Democratic governor, secretary of state and attorney general as well.... The efforts are likely to be met with legal challenges should they pass.... 'These Republican legislatures are acting like banana republic dictators, not leaders in a democracy,' Jared Leopold, communications director for the Democratic Governors Association, told NBC News in a statement. 'These proposals are an insult to the voters of Wisconsin and Michigan,' he said." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Texas. Justin Miller of the Texas Observer: "At the Texas Republican Party’s 2018 convention, Ray Myers was a part of a select group of activists charged with crafting the platform for the biggest and most influential state party in the country. Myers is also a white nationalist, a fact that he declared last week. 'Damn Right, I’m a WHITE NATIONALIST and very Proud of it,' Myers wrote in a Facebook post last Tuesday. Myers is a 74-year-old activist who has been involved in GOP politics for decades. But 'the pivotal political moment came when Obama came on the scene. I knew immediately that America was in trouble,' he said in an Empower Texans profile. Soon after, he founded a tea party chapter in Kaufman County, just east of Dallas. More recently, Myers was a member of Ted Cruz’s 'Texas Leadership Team' during his presidential campaign, served as a Cruz delegate at the RNC convention and went on to become a Trump volunteer, according to his Facebook profile." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Comments

[Jeanne]

I wish to announce that I am NOT running for president in 2020. Thanks to all my followers and the people that believe in me (that might not be followers), but NO, I am not running. I'm sorry that disappoints you all...I wish to "spend more time with my family."
Thank you for giving me this forum, Marie. I will buy teevee time later to announce to the world...(s/)

[PD Pepe]

In July 2017 the ACLU raised alarm about a bill running through the Senate that would criminalize support of a boycott of Israel in any fashion. The bill was shelved but now it has resurfaced and those in favor will want to ram it through in this lame duck session. And those in favor are many democrats who are under the thumb of powerful AIPAC. The CNN firing of Lamont Hill fits in here nicely–-he may even be ousted from his tenure at university for suggesting that maybe it's time for Israel to have a heart.

Enter newly elected representative Rashida Tlaib, (D-Mich) a Palestinian who is trying to organize a trip to Israel. She wants her delegation to humanize Palestinians, provide an alternative perspective to the one AIPAC pushes and highlight the inherent inequality of Israel's system of military occupation in Palestinian territories, which Tlaib likens to what African Americans in the US endured in the Jim Crow era.
https://theintercept.com/2018/12/03/rashida-tlaib-palestine-israel-aipac-congress-trip/

We wish her luck. I find this exciting but I fear her efforts may fall on deaf ears. I saw a play the other night where one of the characters is a professor of ancient history who has written a book "Forgetting the Holocaust" whose pivotal point was how this horror has become a cudgel in dealing with the inhumane things Israel has done and is doing. A great hue and cry over the book prevented the professor of getting tenure which had been approved and then soon after firing him from his position altogether.

Tip toe through the tulips on sacred ground.

[Akhilleus]

I'm starting to think that Marie might be on to something about there now being two Trumps, the public one and the Twitter one.

Trump has virtually NEVER done anything Bristol fashion, but now he's behaving like a normal person, even meeting Dubya at Blair House and not (to my knowledge) calling him a loser or referring to his brother as Low Energy Jeb, although that might be difficult seeing as how he got out the Conestoga wagons complete with scouts and sharpshooters and pack mules to make the journey all the way across the street. I walk farther than that with my dog on a quick pee run (for the dog, not for me; at least not usually for me).

On the other hand, it's pretty sad that a story touting Trump's behavior as "normal" is news.

There's gotta be something else going on. Maybe he bet one of his Marred a Lago cronies (the ones who aren't yet running vast swaths of the government or serving as foreign ambassadors) that he could go three whole days without being a douchebag.

[Akhilleus]

Jeanne,

Dang, girl, I was all ready to write you a big fat check. Well, crap. I can't vote for Avenatti (thank god--what a freakin' disaster that would've been) or Deval Patrick (too bad), and now you.

Confederates are going to make sure Kamala Harris is buried on the Senate Committee to Study Jay-Walking in Idaho, so she'll be getting much less media attention. Smokin' Joe Biden sez he's the best qualified (really wish he wouldn't say stuff like that, it makes him sound like the kid who complains that he should have been picked to play first base over that other kid from down the block). A bunch of no-names are still "considering" a run. Looks like Beto might be our best chance. Warren is still a possibility but I think she'd get crushed in most states not connected to an ocean, just because Fox has been beating on her non-stop for four years. Mike Bloomberg? Another New York rich guy? At least this one is a real billionaire, not a lying piece of shit. Cory Booker? Oh god! Bernie? Who knows?

I might have to run myself. Me and Beto, 2020.

Can't wait to debate Trump. By 2020 he'll be mumbling to himself and falling over on stage, and every other sentence will contain the phrases "witch hunt!" and "no collusion!".

[Akhilleus]

PD,

The Lamont Hill firing is an outrage. And don't look now, but with Bibi under fire at home (corruption charges that sound completely valid and believable), there could be a bit of the old wag-the-dog in the near future.

Never hurts to drop some bombs when fans are being hit with shit all around you. Just ask Dubya.

[Akhilleus]

William Saletan, in a Slate piece (linked above) reminds us that dictators and foreign strongmen who are tarnished by inconvenient things like murder, mayhem, and serial human rights abuses, come to the US and hire lobbyists and PR firms to clean up their image so's they can dunk their schnozzes back in the US money trough without too much fanfare and whoop-de-do.

His point is that murderous dictators (and their schnozzes) don't have to worry about that stuff anymore. Fatty takes care of it all.

But back in the day, 'know who they went to?

Paul Manafort and Roger Stone, Ratfuckers, Inc. In fact, that's how Fatty met both these guys. He was sent to these scurrilous blackguards by the King of Ratfuckers, Roy Cohn, in order for them to help Fatty get around nasty things like laws and regulations.

But Manafort and Stone also helped murderous dictators like Jonas Savimbi and Ferdinand Marcos, and on the domestic side, they helped Big Tobacco and Confederate scumbags like Phil Gramm and Jesse Helms. But now it's their former client, Trumpy, who is helping the murderous dictators (and rapacious corporations and present-day Confederate scumbags).

Funny world, in'it?

Maybe they can all share the same cell one day and talk about the good old days, and how much fun it was to help murderers continue to kill innocent people.

[Akhilleus]

The report that Emantic Bradford, Jr., the black man who was shot in the back (natch) three times by police as he was going in the opposite direction must be received with great glee by NRA assholes. One more black guy down. It was only a few weeks ago that another black man, Jemel Roberson--a security guard who had already subdued the real shooter--was shot to death by police (again) in a Chicago suburb as he was doing his job.

It seems the old canard about the only thing we need is a good man with a gun should be retooled to what the NRA and their Confederate supporters really mean: a good white man with a gun. Black men with (and without) guns, are still liable to be shot to death, with a couple of extra bullets just in case the first didn't do the job.

I am still completely unable to understand how a cop could have shot a kid (Laquan McDonald) 16 times. 16? Did he pause to reload and then shoot him a few more times just to be sure?

So happy the Supreme Court has decided that there's no such thing as racism anymore.

(Oh, hey, check out that racist Christmas tree set up by POLICE in Minneapolis. Did Fox scream about these assholes disrespecting Christmas? I'm pretty sure they were all for it. Probably wish they'd thought of it first.)

[Akhilleus]

Reading John Meacham's eulogy of 41, it struck me that, in a single paragraph, he encapsulated the problem with holding HW up as an avatar of American political greatness and courage.

"For Lincoln and Bush both called on us to choose the right over the convenient, to hope rather than to fear, and to heed not our worst impulses, but our best instincts."

Let's set aside the absurd Lincoln comparison. 41 was no more Lincolnesque than so many of the Johnny-come-lately R's who try to burnish their record of racism, greed, and stupidity with some laughably spurious connection to Honest Abe.

Right over the convenient? Nope. When Bush had the opportunity to spill the beans on Iran Contra, an illegal, astoundingly unconstitutional
move to sell weapons to our sworn enemies for political gain, he knuckled under and went along to get along. So much for courage.

Hope rather than fear? Forget that thousand points of light scam. The whole idea there was a Reaganesque "government is bad so it's all up to you" broadside. And leave us not forget that Poppy routinely went along with the up and coming troglodytes led by the lying scam artist Newt Gingrich, who preached fear, fear, fear, and hatred of anyone who didn't agree with our side. So much for hope.

As for heeding our best instincts as opposed to worst impulses, Bush went along with the government haters and did his infamously stupid John Wayne "Read My Lips" bullshit in order to stoke the fires of ignorance in hopes of getting re-elected. Also, deciding to invade Iraq so that he wouldn't look wimpy, he opened the door to a Middle East malaise that makes the 1970's problems look positively quaint. So much for best instincts.

Did he do some good things? Sure. Unlike Trump (and most of his son's history), he did a few good things. But to con the public into comparing this guy with Lincoln is the sort of canard that a real historian should be ashamed of. I hearby resolve never to read another bullshit book (or article) by John Meacham.

Fucker.

[Akhilleus]

Sorry for dominating the postings today. It's hard to lay off when there's so much mendacity afoot, masquerading as Courage, American Greatness, and "guts", as Fatty refers to a criminal who is trying to save himself.

[Ken Winkes]

I would file this Vanity Fair piece under gossip, but with Pence gone, I wouldn't hesitate to impeach the Pretender.

I don't think the Pretender has any idea that the prospect of little mikey in the Oval Office is his best protection.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/12/mike-pence-2020-mueller-trump