Monday
Mar032014
The Commentariat -- March 4, 2014
Internal links removed.
Reid Epstein of Politico: "President Barack Obama challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin's defense of his involvement in Ukraine, arguing Tuesday that there is widespread consensus that Russia is violating international law...." ...
... Ian Traynor of the Guardian: "Vladimir Putin ruled out war with Ukraine on Tuesday, but also reserved the right to use force 'as a last resort' days after his forces took control of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Breaking his silence for the first time since the revolution in Ukraine toppled Viktor Yanukovych, Putin denounced the takeover as an unconstitutional coup d'etat, insisted Yanukovych was still the legitimate head of state, although he declared him politically dead, and said he would not recognise presidential elections being held in Ukraine at the end of May." ...
... Here's the Guardian's liveblog. ...
... Steven Myers, et al., of the New York Times: "President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Tuesday described the crisis in Ukraine as the result of an 'unconstitutional coup,' throwing his support behind ousted President Viktor F. Yanukovych and reserving the right to use force as 'a last resort.'" CW: Exactly as I wrote yesterday (below) re: Yanukovich's CVA (Cover Vladimir's Ass) letter. ...
... CW: I'm having trouble seeing much difference between Putin's invasion of Ukraine & Kennedy's Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. Oh, well this: the Bay of Pigs was a disaster for the U.S., & there was a lot of carnage. And Batista, the dictator Castro overthrew, was a dictator who got the top job by leading a coup, unlike Yanukovych, who was elected. Help me out, please. ...
... Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State John F. Kerry brought a pledge of $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees for Ukraine's new anti-Russian leadership as he arrived in Kiev to show solidarity with former opposition leaders now facing a military standoff with Moscow." ...
... Peter Baker of the New York Times: "The Obama administration suspended military ties to Russia, including exercises, port visits and planning meetings, just a day after calling off trade talks. If Moscow does not reverse course, officials said they would ban visas and freeze assets of select Russian officials in the chain of command as well as target state-run financial institutions. Congressional leaders signaled that they would follow with sanctions of their own, and quickly approve economic aid for the fragile, new pro-Western government in Ukraine."
William Booth & Will Englund of the Washington Post: "The embattled government in Kiev said Monday night that Russian forces had dramatically escalated the standoff between the two nations by giving Ukraine's army and navy in Crimea a blunt ultimatum: Pledge allegiance to the region's new pro-Russia leadership by morning or be forced by Russia to submit. A spokesman for the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is berthed in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, denied that a threat had been made, and the Russian Defense Ministry called the accusation 'utter nonsense.' But as Russian troops and warships surrounded Ukrainian security installations throughout the autonomous Crimean Peninsula, it was clear that Ukrainian forces believed they faced an imminent threat even though no shot had been fired." ...
... Karen DeYoung of the Washington Post: President "Obama convened a meeting of his National Security Council on Monday evening to consider further actions, while the Defense Department announced that 'in light of recent events in Ukraine,' it had 'put on hold all military-to-military engagements between the United States and Russia. This includes exercises, bilateral meetings, port visits and planning conferences.' ...Obama responded sharply to lawmakers who criticized his actions as weak. 'I've heard a lot of response from Congress about what should be done, what they want to do. One thing they can do right away,' he said, is to join a 'unified position that stands outside of partisan politics' to condemn Russian action and approve an economic and political assistance package for Ukraine's interim government.
"By early evening, Congress appeared on its way to doing so, as senior lawmakers said after a day of meetings in the snow-bound Capitol that they were set to begin debate next week on an economic aid package expected to cost at least $1 billion, along with possible sanctions against senior Russian officials involved in the ongoing military standoff." ...
... Manu Raju & Burgess Everett of Politico: "In an interview, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Congress should let the situation play out for 'a while' before trying to impose any new sanctions on Russia, which is dispatching military forces into Crimea -- forcing the West to scramble for a response. 'The most important thing is for us -- the United States -- to make sure that we don't go off without the European community,' Reid said Monday in the Capitol. 'We have to work with them. Their interests are really paramount if we are going to do sanctions of some kind. We have to have them on board with us.'" ...
... Somini Sengupta of the New York Times: "As the Security Council jousted in an emergency session over Russian military action in Ukraine on Monday, Ukraine's United Nations ambassador sent a three-page letter to every member state, accusing Russian forces of using stun grenades against Ukrainian soldiers, trespassing in Ukrainian airspace and deploying 16,000 troops to the Crimean peninsula. The Security Council's emergency meeting was its third in four days on Ukraine.... The Russian ambassador, Vitaly I. Churkin, who sought the Security Council meeting, told fellow members that 'ultranationalists,' including anti-Semites, had threatened Russians and Russian speakers inside Ukraine, prompting Russia to act." ...
... Louis Charbonneau of Reuters: "Ukraine's ousted leader Viktor Yanukovich has sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin requesting that he use Russia's military to restore law and order in Ukraine, Moscow's U.N. envoy told a stormy meeting of the Security Council on Monday." CW: Yanukovich is giving Putin plausible cover: mobs deposed a democratically-elected president, so we intervened to restore the rightful government. This rationale, of course, would justify Russian troops going all the way to Kiev. ...
... G-7 Leaders Statement. "We, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States and the President of the European Council and President of the European Commission, join together today to condemn the Russian Federation's clear violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, in contravention of Russia's obligations under the UN Charter and its 1997 basing agreement with Ukraine." There's more. ...
... BUT. EU Not Too-Too Upset by Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Ian Traynor, et al., of the Guardian: "A rift appeared to be opening up on Monday night between the US and Europe on how to punish Vladimir Putin for his occupation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, with European capitals resisting Washington's push towards tough sanctions. With the Americans, supported by parts of eastern Europe and Sweden, pushing for punitive measures against Moscow, EU foreign ministers divided into hawks and doves, preferring instead to pursue mediation and monitoring of the situation in Ukraine and to resist a strong sanctions package against Russia. On the ground in Crimea, Russian forces continued to tighten their stranglehold, intimidating and surrounding Ukrainian marines in an attempt to force them to surrender without shots being fired. There were further ominous developments in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian crowds forced their way into a number of government buildings." ...
... Embarrassing! Nicholas Watt of the Guardian: "Britain is drawing up plans to ensure that any EU action against Russia over Ukraine will exempt the City of London, according to a secret government document photographed in Downing Street. As [British PM] David Cameron said Britain and its EU partners would put pressure on Moscow after it assumed control of Crimea, a government document drawn up for a meeting of senior ministers said that 'London's financial centre' should not be closed to Russians. It did say that visa restrictions and travel bans could be imposed on Russian officials. The picture of the document was taken by the freelance photographer Steve Back, who specialises in spotting secret documents carried openly by officials entering Downing Street." ...
... David Jolly & Elizabeth Alderman of the New York Times: "The escalating crisis in Ukraine created turmoil in global markets on Monday, hitting stocks from Wall Street to Ukraine and causing a spike in oil and natural gas prices that could reach into consumers' wallets. But despite fears that the conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine could shift into a military confrontation, analysts said there was little risk of global financial contagion or of major blowback to Western economies." ...
... ** John Judis of the New Republic interviews an actual expert on the region, Dmitri Simes. Very enlightening. ...
... In a New York Times op-ed, Ukrainian novelist and journalist Natalka Sniadanko argues that "Thanks to Mr. Putin, Ukraine has seen a rise not only in Russian-speaking Ukrainian patriots, but also 'Russian-speaking Russophobes,' who identify as Russian but want nothing to do with him." ...
... Gene Robinson: "... the United States, frankly, has limited standing to insist on absolute respect for the territorial integrity of sovereign states. Before Iraq there was Afghanistan, there was the Persian Gulf War, there was Panama, there was Grenada. And even as we condemn Moscow for its outrageous aggression, we reserve the right to fire deadly missiles into Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and who knows where else." ...
... Peter Beinart of the Atlantic: "from where Putin sits, American power hardly seems in retreat. From his perspective, in fact, the reverse is likely much closer to the truth." ...
... "Operation Oxymoron." Dana Milbank: With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Obama's critics pivoted seamlessly from complaining about his overreach to fretting that he is being too cautious.... Last Wednesday, I sat in a House hearing and listened to Republicans describe Obama exercising 'unparalleled use of executive power' and operating an 'uber-presidency.' They accused him of acting like a 'king' and a 'monarch,' of making the United States like a 'dictatorship' or a 'totalitarian government' by exercising 'imperial' and 'magisterial power.' But after events in Ukraine, this very tyrant was said to be so weak that it's 'shocking.'" ...
... Mika's dad, Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor during the Carter administration, calls Putin a thug, offers some retaliatory suggestions, then concludes, "... such efforts to avert miscalculations that could lead to a war should be matched by a reaffirmation of the West's desire for a peaceful accommodation with Russia regarding a joint effort to help Ukraine recover economically and stabilize politically. The West should reassure Russia that it is not seeking to draw Ukraine into NATO or to turn it against Russia." CW: So a policy of fake saber-rattling? ...
... Michael Cohen of the Guardian: "... the sea of foreign policy punditry -- already shark-infested -- has reached new lows in fear-mongering, exaggerated doom-saying and a stunning inability to place global events in any rational historical context.... The most bizarre element of watching the Crimean situation unfold through a US-centric lens: the iron-clad certainty of the pundit class that Putin is winning and Obama is losing. The exact opposite is true.... You don't have to listen to the 'do something' crowd. These are the same people who brought you the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, among other greatest hits." Cohen provides a nice rundown of the lunatic remarks coming form the usual suspects. ...
... Simon Shuster of Time: "It is already clear ... that [Putin] cannot emerge as the winner of this conflict, at least not when the damage is weighed against the gains. It will at best be a Pyrrhic victory, and at worst an utter catastrophe.... At home, this intervention looks to be one of the most unpopular decisions Putin has ever made.... The economic impact on Russia is already staggering.... Even Russia's closest allies want no part of this.... Russia's isolation from the West will deepen dramatically."...
... CW: In answer to yesterday's burning question (which didn't burn very brightly), here's the American guy who most reminds me of Vladimir:
... Mark Landler & Anne Barnard of the New York Times: "President Obama welcomed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to the White House on Monday to discuss a litany of familiar problems and confront a new one: the Ukraine crisis, which threatens American policies throughout the Middle East. The West's standoff with Russia over its seizure of Crimea, analysts and former administration officials said, could complicate American efforts to curb Iran's nuclear program, resolve Syria's civil war and, even in the short run, broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians." ...
... Terry Atlas of Bloomberg News: "President Barack Obama urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to 'seize the moment' to make peace, saying time is running out to negotiate an Israeli-Palestinian agreement."
Zachary Goldfarb & Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "The Obama administration budget to be released Tuesday will set the stage for an election-year debate over government's role in creating economic opportunity, with President Obama calling for more federal spending to help the poor and Republicans charging that such programs waste money and foster dependency." ...
... Zeke Miller of Time: "President Barack Obama's proposed 2015 budget would raise taxes on many wealthy individuals while providing an estimated 13.5 million Americans a tax break, the White House announced Monday, in the latest manifestation of Democrats' midterm-election agenda.... Meanwhile, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (Wis.) is at work on a GOP budget plan that aims to overhaul the nation's welfare system, in part by cutting spending on programs that Ryan argues have locked people into poverty." ...
... New York Times Editors: Paul Ryan (RCreepy-Wisc.) produced a 204-page piece-of-crap report "that finds flaws with almost every attempt the government has made to relieve poverty and its effects since the 1960s." The purpose of the the report is to provide an "intellectual" underpinning for Republicans' dream of eliminating programs that help the poor. CW: No, the poobahs at the Gray Lady did not precisely use the term "piece of crap." But that's what they meant.
Matt Apuzzo of the New York Times: Sen. Rand Paul (RTP-Ky.) & Attorney General Eric Holder "have found common cause: eliminating mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent drug offenders.... While a range of judges, prosecutors and public defenders have for years raised concerns about disparities in punishment, it is this alliance that may make politically possible the most significant liberalization of sentencing laws since President Richard M. Nixon declared war on drugs.... Mr. Paul is backing a sentencing overhaul bill, also supported by Mr. Holder and the Obama administration, that he predicts will pass the Senate with support from up to half of its Republicans.... Similar legislation is pending in the House...."
Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Monday agreed to decide whether prison officials in Arkansas may prohibit inmates from growing beards in accordance with their religious beliefs. The policy was challenged by Gregory H. Holt, who is serving a life sentence for burglary and domestic battery. Mr. Holt said his Muslim faith required him to grow a beard." CW: Given the character of this Court, I'd be glad to see it stick to deliberating such trivial matters.
The Jersey Way
Big-Time Crooks. Russ Buettner of the New York Times: "A comprehensive examination of [Port Authority Chair David] Samson's dealings with Governor Christie and his administration, both inside the Port Authority and out, shows the extent to which their ambitions and successes became intertwined. Mr. Samson and his law firm benefited financially. Mr. Christie benefited politically."
Kate Zernicke of the New York Times: "Court papers filed by a lawyer for Gov. Chris Christie's former campaign manager indicate that federal prosecutors are moving aggressively to investigate the role of the governor's aides in the George Washington Bridge lane closing scandal." ...
... Shawn Boburg of the Bergen Record: "Governor Christie's former campaign manager Bill Stepien appears to be a target of a federal criminal investigation, his lawyer said in a court filing on Monday, describing recent unannounced visits and phone calls by federal agents who went so far as to ask Stepien's landlord if he was a rowdy tenant and paid rent on time."
Star-Ledger Editors: "Gov. Chris Christie has another Port Authority scam to explain, this time over the killer toll hikes at the Hudson River crossings that he approved in the summer of 2011. At the time, the governor expressed shock that the Port Authority would dare to propose roughly doubling the tolls over a few years. Now we learn it was all an act.... Christie knew about the toll hikes in advance.... Christie is refusing to discuss it. But the legislative committee investigating the Port Authority has issued subpoenas, so we will eventually hear the grisly details."
Brent Johnson of the Star-Ledger: "U.S. Sen. John McCain says Gov. Chris Christie's presidential chances are still strong despite the recent controversies he is entangled in, according to a new interview with Time magazine." CW: This is the same fellow who said during the 2008 economic freefall that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong." (In fairness to McCain, the same day he issued this bromide, his campaign released an ad announcing, "Our economy is in crisis.") So, Chris, as I see it, you're still a loaf of toast.
Elsewhere Beyond the Beltway
The New York Times Editors on "Florida's unconstitutional death penalty." The Supreme Court is hearing the case of Freddie Lee Hall, a Florida death-row inmate who is severely mentally retarded, though the state is claiming he isn't really because he scored as high as 80 on some IQ tests. "... the Supreme Court categorically banned the execution of people with intellectual disabilities as unconstitutional in 2002."
Travis Loller of the AP: "A former Tennessee magistrate who changed a baby's first name from Messiah to Martin was censured Monday. Lu Ann Ballew said at the time that Messiah was a title held only by Jesus Christ.... Board of Judicial Conduct Disciplinary Counsel Tim Discenza said ... that a panel of the board voted unanimously in Dandridge for a public censure. Discenza said public censure is the probably most serious sanction the board could take against Ballew, given that she already lost her position as a magistrate."
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Reader Comments (12)
Say for instance a province, like maybe Quebec seceded from Canada and started a new country. Then Russia came into our neighborhood over to Quebec and said "we will give you lots of gold to be our friend." What do you think Canada and the US would say? What if Dick Cheney and his pet bush was the president of these bunch of divisive war-mongerers?
The beauty about representative democracy is apparently even the ignorant savage is just as welcome and accepted as the most studied and deliberative scholar. Should the proto-Russian voters in Ukraine be disregarded? Putin is the Russian Cheney. We in the US are so similar to Russia with our caviler use of military power, it is disgusting. And not one word of comparison. The situation in Ukraine can be explained as enabled by the unilateral invasion policies of Cheney/bush demonstrated in Iraq and Afghanistan. And not one word of comparison. At least Russia shares a border, no matter how manipulated with Ukraine.
There is no way on this earth I send my son to fight a battle in Ukraine. And when Bibi 'what's his name' from that puny little country in the middle east wants a word at our table tell him to pony some money and some bodies before spending our treasure. Otherwise, who's the patsy?
My apologies, but this is bullshit to sell media/political viewpoints in both Russia and the US because BarryO had the temerity to propose cutting the military to pre-WWll levels and Putin needs the domestic political capital of having the 'big bad bully' beat up his downtrodden, though worthy Russians. Just like someone mentioned the other day: add an English accent we give someone a free 10 IQ points; add a Russian accent subtract 15 IQ points. Let's restart the Cold War; the most connected businesses in the world agree: oil prices rise; arms prices rise; arms demand rises. Hold your horses!
Re: Pics of the twin dough boys; I regretfully have to admit that I do not know who Putin's long lost twin brother is. Marie, please enlighten me. I do know that both of them are wearing too tight undies or they have been caught with their hands in the cookie jar and are hiding at least three ill-gained cookies in their cheeks.
@JJG: The fellow on the left is
murderingacquitted thug George Zimmerman.Marie
When I watched some of the opinion shows yesterday, including Chris Hayes, I saw a lot of schizophrenic policy positions. The quote from Zbigniew Brzezinski linked today seems pretty indicative of that tone. We need to be tougher, but we're not quite sure how.
Regardless of your position on Russia's actions, its pretty clear that the US is firmly planted in the roiling space between the 20th and 21st centuries. The US's position in the world has changed and more importantly, so has that of many other countries. The globe is in flux and is a volatile place. Relationships are very complex, i.e. Germany gets 30-40% of their gas/oil from Russia. Diplomacy isn't for the feeble minded whose only tool is outrage and a big stick. I hope the President continues to pursue a way forward with Russia, Syria, and Iran. OK Israel too, but Bibi is seriously on my nerves.
When the question appeared yesterday to identify the look-alike Putin picture several faces swam by my eyes, but none really fit. Yet––there were those beady eyes lacking emotion, the grim chin, the outward stubborn stare that was similar to??? I just couldn't come up with it. Yes! The Zimmer-man––perfect.
Just heard that Putin has ordered his troops back to their base. Perhaps that cookie jar was empty and his cheeks are just full of hot air.
The Russian roulette certainly is crowding out the Christi crisis, at least in the news, but I'm sure there are eager beavers in New Jersey who continue with the investigation with vigor.
Okay, I chose Boehner, because Putin looks like a drunk who has just knocked back a quart of vodka and who is just about to burp.
Who else would get drunk enough to need to burp like that?
I could only think of Boehner.
Also the upper lip.
Marie makes the point that the invasion of the Crimea is not much different from the Bay of Pigs. I would extend the comparison.
It's funny to hear American pols who lined up to back the illegal invasion of Iraq by the criminals Bush and Cheney, an invasion based on bald faced lies that was already in early planning stages before the Bush administration dropped the ball and allowed thousands of Americans to be murdered, now stepping up to the microphone to scream about Putin invading a sovereign power with no just cause.
Sound familiar?
At least Putin as the putative rationale that Ukrainians of Russian descent are somehow in jeopardy and, I'm sorry Marie, but wasn't that Hitler's excuse for invading the Sudetenland? But at least in terms of an excuse that has some basis in fact, Putin can actually point to Russians living in the Crimea. He doesn't have to make up shit about yellowcake and fuel rods. AND, unlike the thugs Bush and Cheney, he has yet to resort to Shock and Awe.
And one more thing (probably more than one, but you know how that goes). Everyone and her grandmother is complaining about Obama's "feckless" and weak handling of the situation.
Either that or they're calling him a power mad tyrant. Sometimes both at the same time (he's a fascist AND a socialist!). Cory Shockey, a foreign policy hack at the Hoover Institution, aka Wingnuts West, in practically the same sentence talks about Obama's bellicose bluster and his weak sister stances. Okay, which is it? Her old boss, John McCain (she served as foreign policy advisor--ie, the Who Should We Bomb Next Advisor--to McCain and (don't laugh) Sarah Palin, during that dynamic duo's mighty showing in '08, has been running around screaming that we need to bomb somebody for this. Anybody. He complains that no one takes American power seriously anymore.
You know why John?
Iraq. Bush. Cheney. YOU. That's fucking why. If Obama finds himself in a delicate situation with a military worn to a frazzle after fighting 12 years of a cooked up Republican/Neocon war, and having to deal, on the international stage with allies we've gone out of our way to alienate and plenty of other countries who simply don't turst us, maybe some of the blame needs to be more appropriately, and truthfully, allocated.
Fucko.
@Akhilleus: Thanks. I think there is yet another way McCain, Graham & the whole Everything-Is-Obama's-Fault crowd has made the situation worse. There was never any question that whatever Obama said or did, they would call his efforts "not enough." Perhaps if Obama had not been guaranteed such a response (or pre-sponse, in McCain's case), he would have taken a more measured tone &, you know, worked with Putin before the crisis escalated. A lot of our belligerence, I think, is comes from the knowledge that war hawks will always be ready with calling whomever proposes diplomacy as "feckless," "weak," or worse.
Ergo, it is Western Europe, which arguably has more at stake in this situation than does the U.S., which is offering the more measured response, even though it appears the E.U. was at least somewhat instrumental in setting up the crisis in the first place.
As long as there are prominent war hawks bent on screeching that diplomatic efforts are for sissies, we will have less-than-optimal foreign policy.
Marie
And....regarding yesterday's burning question of the Putin lookalike (see, Marie, more people were thinking about this that it appeared), I, for the life of me couldn't figure it.
At one point I thought maybe Louie Gohmert, after all, they're both mostly bald and more than half crazy. But Gohmert is a screaming mimi, with steam coming out of both ears. Putin has dead eyes and a Kalashnikov surgically attached to his hip. I mean, did you see him during the Olympics? He might as well have been reading his water bill. Mr. Excitement he ain't.
But Zimmerman and his self-pitying insecurities fits the bill nicely. Even more so now that it's pretty clear that Putin, for all his KGB, bare-chested, macho-man swagger, feels the sting of being disrespected, of being thought of as a petty, violent thug and FOO (friend of oligarchs), and a third world hetman rather than a serious first world leader.
Maybe he and Zimmerman can create their own Facebook page for great men who feel victimized by the rest of the world. Louie Gohmert might be their first friend request.
Marie,
Regarding the Bomb-First mentality and EU vs US stakes.
You're exactly correct that it's the EU that stands to gain a lot (first, respect, and second, increased security and economic benefits) by working to back Russia off and embrace the Ukraine. But first, a show of hands. Now class, who thinks anyone in the EU will step up and do this promptly and properly? Do I see a hand up in the back? What? Oh, you were scratching your nose? Sorry.
Nope. No one.
Although I have to say that Angela Merkel had a pretty neat idea, one that, in theory, Putin seems to have agreed to, a "fact finding" mission to determine the status of Russians in the Ukraine. But even if Putin's stated reason for the invasion, his concern for those of Russian heritage in the Crimea (and not naval control of the Black Sea out of Sevastopol, if you believe that), I can't see him abiding by anything some EU fact-finders come up with. The other idea of booting Russia out of the G8 is a non-starter as well. It will only force him into a corner and, if Merkel's assessment of Putin, that he's delusional, is correct, what would prompt him to bow to reason or that kind of pressure?
On the other hand, any diplomatic solution is far superior to what Bomb's Away McCain and other war-mad Republicans favor.
See, here's the thing. If we do what many wingnuts are suggesting, and send a battle group up the Bosphorus Strait and fly some F18s at mach one over Sevastopol, you know, to show STRENGTH and RESOLVE, goddamit, then we have to be ready for what comes next.
It's like this. You're in your car. Some asshole in a big truck cuts you off and gives you the finger. You both stop at a red light. You decide to get out of your car and let them have a piece of your mind. You get up to the truck, they open the door and have a shotgun sitting on their lap pointed at you (this actually happened to me). You see, once you get out of your car, you have to be ready for anything. You have to have a plan in place. Otherwise you could get it both barrels and still not know what to do (see Bush, George W.).
So putting up your dukes is great as long as you know what you're doing, and you have an endgame for what happens if things don't go your way (see Cheney, Dickhead).
Now a fact-finding mission is a little like a "more study is needed" ploy. It slows things down. But in this case, it gives Putin time to become fully entrenched and simply dare everyone to get him out. And as we learned in the first Bush Iraq war, once you break it, you own it.
So diplomacy is good first step. What's the best idea? Well, Putin just blew $50 billlion on the Olympics. He's strapped for cash and he wants respect. Put it to him in terms of economics and national prestige.
Hell, I'm not a diplomat, but I do know that in any negotiation, you can't simply call someone names. You have to offer them something they want. And if it comes to having to get out of your car to confront them, this time have a P.L.A.N. And make sure it includes a true international front. Not just the US, Britain, and a few penny ante countries.
Also, a final note to the knuckleheads in congress and the media who want immediate results. This is the real world, numbskulls. Things like this don't happen overnight. Give it more than 48 hours before busting a gut and saying stupid things. Obama has surprised everyone before. Maybe he can do it again, even with everyone against him. Abroad AND at home.
Fucking traitors.
The Bush Debacle just keeps on getting better.
The War of Lies started as a personal experiment in world chaos by the most incompetent fool ever to darken the Oval Office and his pet piranha, ate up bodies and spit 'em out. Mostly due to further incompetency, lack of planning, and hubris. In its need for more and more cannon fodder, the US Army seems to have discarded many of its own screening rules for admittance to the military.
According to several studies just released, at least 20% of all soldiers enlisted by the Army from 2004 through 2009 had a mental illness. Many of them took their own lives because of this.
According to an article in the LA Times, the primary question is how did any of these people get into the Army in the first place.
The answer is, Bush's illegal war needed bodies if he was going to have any fun. Do you think he has any regrets about all the additional lives he is responsible for, those who have committed suicide who should never have been enlisted in the first place, or those who are permanently damaged?
Nah. Probably painting another picture of his toes by now.
Shock, Awe, and Mental Illness
Germany PM Merkel's comments about President Putin have in many cases over the past two days been characterized as her saying that he is "delusional." But I think she was saying that he is out of touch with reality, because he is operating from a different set of information, which she believes to be incorrect. In short, he is inside his own information bubble ... a self-created bubble that limits trustworthy (or any) fact-checking or analysis by an open press, or a responsible political opposition.
And so are we, in our bubble, when it comes to the politics of the Ukraine. So we (the US) would be wise to take a deep breath and check our facts, and our goals and requirements, before investing a great deal in any "solution."
For what it is worth:
-- the Black Sea is Russia's lake, and welcome to it. The fact that Russia's Black Sea Fleet is miniscule and obsolescent is because, during hositilities, with any non-littoral state, it is useless. It cannot get out, and it is within range of anybody's airpower while anywhere in the Black Sea. So, we don't care about the Black Sea.
-- Ukrainian democracy. Yes, we care about that. But Ukraine is not a NATO member and we have no direct or linked treaty obligations. Given time and talk, the Ukrainians will work out an accommodation with their role between Russia and the EU. It will be shaky, as has always been the case, with Ukraine's europeans in its west and slavs in its east, and opportunists everywhere. Russians and europeans are much more familiar with the problems of Ukrainian politics and economics. The US should not try to dictate any outcomes other than a prohibition of Russian occupation.
-- Crimea is to Russia what Hong Kong is to China, and eventually it will be worked out as a "special status," like HK.
-- President Obama should just ignore all the partisan bullshit in the US. He can't gain any political goodwill by success in Ukraine, and the ill will won't go away no matter what he does.
There's lots more, but the bottom line is that if we play it cool the whole thing will go down. If we get into a mano a mano macho match with Russia, we will end up backing down. Because we don't care about the Black Sea, and the Ukrainians don't rely on us to be their protectors.