The Conversation -- June 19, 2025
James LaPorta of CBS News: Donald "Trump approved attack plans on Iran Tuesday night, but did not make a final decision on whether to strike the country and formally join Israel's air campaign, a senior intelligence source and a Defense Department official told CBS News. Mr. Trump held off on deciding to strike in case Tehran agrees to abandon its nuclear program, the sources said. The news was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.... 'I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do,' [Trump] said ... Wednesday, adding that he'd like Iran to negotiate on a deal to end its nuclear program. Iran — which has long insisted the program exists solely for peaceful purposes — said Wednesday it 'does NOT negotiate under duress,' and said it would 'respond to any threat with a counter-threat.'" ~~~
~~~ Felicia Schwartz, et al., of Politico: “... Donald Trump, who criticized his predecessor for allowing new wars to break out on his watch, is increasingly listening to a small group of Iran hawks who have been pushing to go tougher on Tehran. Trump has become more receptive to arguments by those advocating more military engagement, including Gen. Michael 'Erik' Kurilla, who leads Central Command, as well as Republican senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Tom Cotton of Arkansas, according to ... [people] familiar with discussions....” ~~~
~~~ David Sanger of the New York Times: “The American B-2 stealth bomber is the only plane capable of carrying the bombs needed to strike Iran’s deepest nuclear facilities, but the decision to use them is not without risk.... If Mr. Trump is taking a pause, it may be because the list of things that could go wrong is long, and probably incomplete. There’s the obvious: It’s possible that a B-2 could get shot down, despite Israel’s success of taking out so many of Iran’s air defenses. It’s possible the calculations are wrong, and even America’s biggest conventional bomb can’t get down that deep.... But assuming that the operation itself is successful, the largest perils may lie in the aftermath, many experts say, just as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are many lessons from that ugly era of misbegotten American foreign policy, but the most vital may be that it’s the unknown unknowns that can come back to bite. Iran has vowed that if attacked by American forces, it would strike back, presumably against the American bases spread around the Middle East and the growing number of assets gathering in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean.” ~~~
~~~ Lara Jakes of the New York Times: “Thousands of American troops could be in Iran’s direct line of fire if President Trump joins Israel in attacking Tehran’s nuclear program and military, as he said on Wednesday that he may or may not do. Many would have only minutes to take cover from an incoming Iranian missile. Experts expect that if Mr. Trump orders the American military to directly participate in Israel’s bombing campaign, Iran will quickly retaliate against U.S. troops stationed across the Middle East. 'The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,' Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned on Wednesday, according to state news media. More than 40,000 U.S. active-duty troops and civilians are working for the Pentagon in the Middle East, and billions of dollars in weapons and military equipment are stored there.” ~~~
~~~ Elisabeth Bumiller of the New York Times on the similarities between George W. Bush's decision to win a quick war against Iraq & the possibility that Trump will make the same decision regarding Iran.
Jess Bidgood of the New York Times: Donald Trump's “supporters are warring over two dueling campaign promises: to steer clear of foreign wars and to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.... It’s erupted into a fight over the meaning of the Make America Great Again movement, and whether the most fervent keeper of its flame is Mr. Trump’s original base and the isolationism that animated it or the Republicans who back whatever action he takes in the moment.... For days, longtime Trump allies across the Republican Party, including firebrands like Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Stephen K. Bannon and [Tucker] Carlson, have ... inveigh[ed] loudly against [joining Israel's war against Iran], warning that Mr. Trump risks finding himself in a quagmire overseas — and in a fight inside his own party that could end up harming him.” (Also linked yesterday.)
House Judiciary Committee Democrats Press Release: "Today, Rep. Jamie Raskin, Ranking Member of the House Judiciary Committee, released a new Committee staff analysis revealing how ... Donald Trump’s corrupt pardon spree will deprive victims and survivors of crime of $1.3 billion in restitution and fines owed to them and American taxpayers, allowing corporate fraudsters and tax cheats to keep their ill-gotten gains. Trump’s decision to wipe out restitution debts of fraudsters, millionaire tax evaders and other white-collar criminals will also severely deplete funds for victims’ assistance and compensation programs." In a statement, Rep. Raskin said, in part, "While prior presidents overwhelmingly reserved pardons for those who accepted responsibility for their crimes, made full restitution to their victims and paid all their legal fines, Trump uses pardons not only to shorten the sentences of his political friends but to wipe out the debt they owe to their victims and to our society."
Colby Smith of the New York Times: “The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday as expected, but new projections released alongside the decision showed officials are extremely divided about how significantly they will be able to lower borrowing costs this year as they brace for inflation to rise sharply as growth tumbles.... Wednesday’s unanimous decision, which kept interest rates at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, shows that this approach still holds at a time when there is vast uncertainty. That includes questions about which countries will face Mr. Trump’s tariffs and how punishing those rates may be; how expansive the administration’s immigration crackdown will be, and whether Republicans will be able to slash taxes and cut spending as their bill making its way through Congress intends.... Just hours before the Fed’s rate decision, [Mr. Trump] repeatedly called [Fed chair Jerome] Powell 'stupid' and floated the idea of installing himself as chair of the central bank as he called for borrowing costs to drop by 2.5 percentage points.” (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~
~~~ Speaking of "stupid," Lawrence O'Donnell said last night that "no other president was ever capable of saying anything as stupid or as indicative of dementia" as Trump was when he wondered out loud about appointing himself to head the Fed.
When is a detention center not a detention center? When ICE calls it something else -- even though it's a place where ICE, um, detains people overnight. ~~~
~~~ Arya Sundaram of the Gothamist: “U.S. Reps. Jerry Nadler and Dan Goldman, both New York Democrats, were barred Wednesday from entering and inspecting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement holding areas at 26 Federal Plaza in Lower Manhattan. ICE Deputy Field Office Director Bill Joyce, with reporters and others looking on, met with the representatives on the ground floor of the building. He told the officials that some immigrants had slept overnight on the floor and on benches on the building’s 10th floor. But Joyce said the site was not a detention center, which members of Congress are legally allowed to inspect, but rather an off-limits 'processing center' to temporarily hold migrants possibly facing removal. Nadler said at the press conference that he would consider legal action if further efforts to inspect the holding areas were unsuccessful. Goldman said the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, was in clear violation of federal law. 'You have no right to say no to us. That’s a matter of law,' Nadler told Joyce, with more than a dozen reporters and aides looking on. He later added, 'If people are detained for several days, it is a detention facility, whatever you choose to call it.'”
Roni Rabin of the New York Times: “Travel and visa restrictions imposed by the Trump administration threaten patient care at hundreds of hospitals that depend on medical residents recruited from overseas. Foreign medical residents often serve as the frontline caregivers at busy safety-net hospitals in low-income communities. Normally the residents begin work on July 1. Orientation programs for some of them already started this week.... On May 27, the Trump administration suspended new interview appointments for foreign nationals applying for J-1 visas. The visas ... are used by most medical residents arriving from overseas. On Wednesday, the State Department lifted the pause on visa appointments.... The process now includes 'enhanced social media vetting,' intended to ferret out potential security risks, the official said. The administration also has banned or restricted travel to the United States from 19 countries. The restrictions may be extended to an additional 36 countries, including many African nations, if they do not comply with U.S. demands regarding overstayed visas and security concerns.” ~~~
~~~ Edward Wong of the New York Times: “The State Department plans to review the social media accounts of foreign citizens who apply for student and visiting scholar visas as it resumes processing those applications. Applicants will be screened for perceived 'hostility' toward the United States, and they will be asked to make their social media accounts 'public' for the review, State Department officials said on Wednesday. All applications for F, M and J nonimmigrant visas, which are for scholarly exchanges and research, will be reviewed, the officials said.” A related Politico story is here.
Patrick Smith, et al., of NBC News: "The U.S. government will activate 2,000 more National Guard troops in Los Angeles, the military confirmed in a statement Tuesday night, as a legal battle continues over the deployment. Protests against federal immigration policies that exploded in Los Angeles and across the country in recent weeks have died down, and a nighttime curfew has been lifted as businesses return to normal. Nevertheless, U.S. Northern Command said the reinforcements were needed to 'support the protection of federal functions, personnel, and property in the greater Los Angeles area.' The 2,000 troops are deployed at the direction of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, using Title 10, which allows the president to call in the National Guard when the country is at risk of invasion or rebellion." ~~~
~~~ Colin Meyn of the Hill (June 17): “Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week authorized the mobilization of up to 700 troops to assist federal immigration officials in Florida, Louisiana and Texas in processing detainees at Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities, the Pentagon said Tuesday. 'These service members, drawn from all components and operating in a Title 10 duty status, will provide logistical support, and conduct administrative and clerical functions associated with the processing of illegal aliens at ICE detention facilities,' officials wrote in the press release.” ~~~
~~~ Marie: Of course I'm relieved to learn that heavily-armed officers are saving us from dangerous immigrants who go to swap meets: ~~~
Trump/Musk/Rubio: Snatching Defeat from the Hands of Victory. Apoorva Mandavilli of the New York Times: “The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday approved a twice-yearly injection that provided a near-perfect shield against H.I.V. infection in clinical trials. The approval is among the most anticipated developments in the prevention of H.I.V. But it arrives during deep cuts to global health programs that were expected to purchase and distribute the drug in low-income countries. To what extent the drug, called lenacapavir, can now be rolled out is uncertain. 'We’re on the precipice of now being able to deliver the greatest prevention option we’ve had in 44 years of this epidemic,' said Mitchell Warren ... of the international H.I.V. prevention organization AVAC. 'And it’s as if that opportunity is being snatched out of our hands by the policies of the last five months,' he said.” ~~~
~~~ This NBC News story by Benjamin Ryan, emphasizes that the new medication also may not be available to Americans. Because of its high cost ($14,109 per injection), insurers may not make the drug available.
DOJ to Give Criminals More Access to Guns. Glenn Thrush of the New York Times: “The Justice Department plans to slash the number of inspectors who monitor federally licensed gun dealers by two-thirds, sharply limiting the government’s already crimped capacity to identify businesses that sell guns to criminals, according to budget documents. The move, part of the Trump administration’s effort to defang and downsize the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, comes as the department considers merging the A.T.F. and the Drug Enforcement Administration. It follows a rollback of Biden-era regulations aimed at stemming the spread of deadly homemade firearms, along with other gun control measures. The department plans to eliminate 541 of the estimated 800 investigators responsible for determining whether federal dealers are following federal law and regulations intended to keep guns away from traffickers, straw purchasers, criminals and those found to have severe mental illness, according to a budget summary quietly circulated last week.” ~~~
~~~ Marie: How stupid do you have to be to think that Trump is making the nation safer by deporting dishwashers and nursing-home workers while putting more guns in the hands of criminals and the mentally ill?
Marlene Lenthang & Jo Yurcaba of NBC News: “The Trump administration will shut down the national LGBTQ youth suicide lifeline in 30 days. The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) announced Tuesday that the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline will no longer use its LGBTQ youth services, also known as the 'Press 3 option,' effective July 17. The agency said it will 'no longer silo LGB+ youth services' — notably removing the 'T' representing the trans community in the initialism — to 'focus on serving all help seekers, including those previously served through the Press 3 option.'”
Tara Bernard & Margot Sanger-Katz of the New York Times: “The Social Security program faces a longstanding financing shortfall that, if left unaddressed, would slash millions of retirees’ crucial monthly benefit payments in just eight years. The deteriorating financial outlook for the retirement program, which supports roughly 61 million Americans, was released in its annual trustees report on Wednesday. It is now expected to run out of money nine months earlier than previously projected, which means benefits could be reduced by 23 percent if Congress does not act to bolster the program. That puts the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which pays retiree and survivor benefits, on schedule to be depleted in 2033.... At that time, the program will have enough revenue coming in to pay only 77 percent of total scheduled benefits.” ~~~
~~~ Michael Stratford of Politico: “The long-term financial health of Social Security and Medicare worsened last year, according to the federal government’s latest projections, accelerating the funding cliffs for the key safety-net programs in the coming years. Annual reports released by the Treasury Department on Monday show that Social Security’s reserve funds, if combined, would run out of money to fully pay beneficiaries in 2034 — a year sooner than projected last year. And the trust fund that pays Medicare’s hospital bills would be depleted in 2033 — three years earlier than expected. The change to the financial outlook for Social Security’s reserves was primarily driven by a bipartisan expansion of benefits to millions of public sector workers that President Joe Biden signed into law in January. In addition, federal actuaries estimated that fertility rates would remain lower for longer and revised downward economic projections that suggest more sluggish long-term wage growth.”
Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) questions Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during an Armed Services Committee hearing Wednesday:
~~~ Gregg Jaffe of the New York Times reports on the hearing. This appears to be a gift link.
Ann Marimow & Casey Parks of the Washington Post: “A divided Supreme Court on Wednesday cleared the way for states to ban certain gender transition treatments for minors, a landmark decision on a polarizing issue the Trump administration has seized on in initiatives targeting transgender rights. In one of the most high-profile cases of the term, the court’s conservative majority upheld a Tennessee law that prohibits minors from using hormones and puberty blockers for gender transition. The court’s decision, authored by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., affects the law in Tennessee and has implications for more than 20 other states that have banned similar treatments as a growing — but still small — number of young people seek to delay puberty as part of a gender transition. But the basis for the court’s ruling, legal experts said, appears to leave open opportunities for advocates to challenge other bans involving bathroom use, sports participation and military service.” The decision was 6-3. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~
~~~ Mark Sherman of the AP: “The Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming care for transgender minors, a jolting setback to transgender rights. The justices’ 6-3 decision in a case from Tennessee effectively protects from legal challenges many efforts by ... Donald Trump’s Republican administration and state governments to roll back protections for transgender people. Another 26 states have laws similar to Tennessee’s.” ~~~
~~~ Abbie VanSickle of the New York Times: “Justice Sonia Sotomayor, one of the court’s three liberals, wrote a scathing dissent criticizing her conservative colleagues’ decision to uphold a state ban on some medical treatments for transgender youths. The justice said that the court had retreated from 'meaningful judicial review exactly where it matters most,' adding that 'the court abandons transgender children and their families to political whims.' Justice Sotomayor also took the rare step of reading her dissent from the bench during the opinion announcement on Wednesday, a move typically reserved to emphasize a justice’s extreme displeasure with a decision. She took issue with the majority’s view that questions about such medical treatments should be resolved by 'the people, their elected representatives and the democratic process.' In her 31-page dissent, she argued that 'judicial scrutiny has long played an essential role' in guarding against efforts by lawmakers to 'impose upon individuals the state’s views about how people of a particular sex (or race) should live or look or act.'” (Also linked yesterday.)
In case you think the good guys can't win, RAS pointed to an intriguing piece by David Robson, published on the BBC site, that suggests otherwise: "... compelling research by Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard University, confirms that civil disobedience is not only the moral choice; it is also the most powerful way of shaping world politics – by a long way. Looking at hundreds of campaigns over the last century, Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.... Overall, nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns: they led to political change 53% of the time compared to 26% for the violent protests. This was partly the result of strength in numbers. Chenoweth argues that nonviolent campaigns are more likely to succeed because they can recruit many more participants from a much broader demographic, which can cause severe disruption that paralyses normal urban life and the functioning of society." (Also linked yesterday.)
A video of President Obama's full remarks in Hartford, Connecticut, Tuesday night is now available here. (Also linked yesterday.)
Adam Nossiter of the New York Times: “Stanley Nelson, a crusading small-town journalist with a passion for probing unsolved Ku Klux Klan murders, died on June 5 at his home in DeRidder, La. He was 69. Mr. Nelson’s efforts to solve a particularly vicious Klan murder — the arson death of the Black owner of a shoe-repair shop in Ferriday, La., in 1964 — made him a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 2011; earned him the esteem of the small but ardent band of journalists dedicated to civil-rights-era cold cases; and were the inspiration for a central figure in the Mississippi writer Greg Iles’s best-selling novel 'Natchez Burning' (2014). 'In his quest for truth, Stanley led me through the secret pasts of our home states — Mississippi and Louisiana — among men who lived in the shadow of crimes that had no statute of limitations,' Mr. Iles wrote in The Natchez Democrat last week.”
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Minnesota. David Li of NBC News: "Police are investigating a reported overnight break-in at the boarded-up home where Minnesota state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband were fatally shot over the weekend, authorities said Wednesday.... Investigators had processed the home as a crime scene before it was boarded up Sunday morning..., officials said. Hortman's family had 'removed items of value from the home on Tuesday,' police said. Wednesday morning, police said they had discovered 'that the plywood covering the rear window of the home had been pried off and the window broken to gain entry.... The family has indicated that they don’t believe anything is missing.'"
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Israel/Iran, et al. Farnaz Fassihi, et al., of the New York Times: “Israel has said it does not target Iranian civilians, but hundreds have died in the violence.... Dr. Hossein Kermanpour, the spokesman for the Ministry of Health, said 90 percent of casualties were civilians, not military.... Four physicians, including the director of a major hospital in Tehran, said that emergency rooms were overwhelmed.”
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Reader Comments (2)
That was then…
Back in 2011, Fatty stated unequivocally that a president who went to war with Iran would do so because he didn’t know how to negotiate AND because he was weak and ineffective .
Hmm…I guess things are different now. Yeah. That must be it.
Hey, didn’t we already have a negotiated agreement with Iran that addressed their ability to develop a nuclear weapon? Some idiot tore up that agreement. Wonder who did that?
But here’s the thing. Trump tears up agreements all the time. What country is going to negotiate anything with such an unstable and untrustworthy partner? Agreements require a good faith commitment on both sides to adhere to whatever contracts are made. If it’s clear that one side will simply wake up one day and say “Nah. I’m out”, who could trust that person in anything?
He’s an idiot. Mr. Big Dealmaker, for most of his life, had never signed a contract he knew he’d walk out on when he felt like it. He usually had all the leverage and if the other side complained, he’d throw lawyers at them. That’s not a dealmaker, that’s a cheap chiseler.
But now, on the international stage, that crap doesn’t work and he has no idea what to do. What’s he gonna do? “Do what I say or I’ll send Marco Rubio after you”?
Idiot.