The Commentariat -- August 28, 2012

Presidential Race

Milt Shook (I think) writes, "What has Obama Done? Here Are 194 Accomplishments! With Citations! If you're one of those who thinks President Obama is a "disappointment," my condolences for not getting your unicorn." Thanks to Jeanne B. for the link.

Michael Cohen of the Guardian on why Obama should run on the success of the stimulus. Um, it worked, as "Michael Grunwald's exceptional new book, The New New Deal: The Hidden Story of Change in the Obama Era" demonstrates. "Republicans," Cohen writes, "not surprisingly, like to blame President Obama for the poor state of the US economy, but in reality, the US is living today under a Republican economy -- one that comprises low taxes and curbed spending. The results speak for themselves."

Michael Shear of the New York Times: "Difficult questions loom for Mr. Obama and his political advisers as they plot their attacks. If the storm wreaks havoc on the Gulf Coast, should Democrats ease up? Does Mr. Obama cut short his campaign swing, or continue to rally his supporters against Mr. Romney amid images of mass evacuations and property damage?"

Jim Fallows of the Atlantic says Romney will do a good job in the debates with Obama. A big help: as so many of us said in yesterday's Commentariat, the moderator won't call Romney on his lies. Too bad Chris Matthews isn't a moderator!

Ashley Southall of the New York Times: "Republican ... party leaders want to drive home a message to voters: The federal debt is hurtling toward $16 trillion, and it is President Obama's fault. That's the gist of what the party chairman, Reince Priebus, said as he banged a gavel to open the convention Monday afternoon. The banging activated a 'debt clock' in the convention hall that tallies the amount the debt accumulating during the four-day event. A second ticker that started running earlier displays the total national debt.... Republicans are of course not mentioning their own role in its growth during the Bush administration." ...

Michael Shear of the New York Times: "Mitt Romney's hopes for a highly disciplined and scripted nominating convention continued to fray Monday morning as a tropical storm barreled toward New Orleans and was expected to strengthen into a hurricane. Mr. Romney's convention organizers were also warily keeping an eye on some restive delegates, including supporters of Representative Ron Paul of Texas, who were poised to challenge parts of the convention's rules and platform when it begins Tuesday afternoon. Broadcast and cable networks on Monday began shifting some of their resources toward the hurricane-threatened Gulf Coast...." ...

Oops! So much for "highly disciplined & scripted"; Romney sends the wrong script. Elise Viebeck of The Hill: "Copies of Mitt Romney's book, distributed at the GOP convention, retain a sentiment anathema to the GOP base -- that the Massachusetts healthcare reform law could be a model for the nation. The sentence that makes this case was changed for No Apology's paperback version, but reporters in Tampa received copies with the original wording along with other swag."

This fellow may look like a normal meterologist. But he's an Obama stooge! Maybe the communist-red shirt is the telltale clue.... Rushbo Will Not Be Satirized. Kevin Robillard of Politico: "Rush Limbaugh ... suggested Monday that the National Hurricane Center's forecast models for Tropical Storm Isaac were altered to help President Barack Obama and 'cast a pall' over the Republican National Convention. 'I'm not alleging conspiracies here. The Hurricane Center is the regime; the Hurricane Center is the Commerce Department,' Limbaugh said on his talk show. 'It's the government. It's Obama.' The conservative talker suggested early forecasts, which showed the storm hitting Tampa, the convention's host city, were intended to cause Republicans to cancel the first day of their convention. Newer models showing the storm striking New Orleans, he said, are intended to link the convention to memories of Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall seven years ago this week." ...

... Is it any wonder then that conservatives want to defund the weather service? ...

... BUT Rush's hurricane theory isn't the only one out there. While Mother Nature was melting Arctic ice (see yesterday's Ledes, God was steering the hurricane away from Tampa & toward New Orleans. Brian Tashman of Right Wing Watch. "Today on the 700 Club, Christian Broadcasting Network correspondent Paul Strand spoke to Jesten Peters of Keys of Authority Ministries who said that her organization's prayer efforts helped steer Tropical Storm Isaac away from Tampa in order to protect the Republican National Convention." ...

... Neetzan Zimmerman of Gawker: "But what about the fact that Isaac is now expected to strengthen into a hurricane and make landfall in Louisiana on the seventh anniversary of Katrina? Oh, that. Something something gay marriage." ...

... Carl Hulse of the New York Times: Louisiana Gov. Bobby "Jindal (R), who at one point had been considered a strong potential candidate for vice president on the Republican ticket, announced Monday that he would not attend events in Tampa while the storm threatened his state, let alone speak as scheduled at 8 p.m. Wednesday."

Dogwhistling' Dixie

For those of you unconvinced that Rmoney's welfare ads are racist, Ezra Klein has the 1-2 punch: (1) Romney's "campaign is running more ads about welfare than just about any other issue." Citing the results of an academic study, Klein writes, (2) "The evidence suggests that the [ads] work particularly well if the viewer is racist, or at least racially resentful. And these are the ads that are working so unexpectedly well that welfare is now the spine of Romney's 2012 on-air message in the battleground states." CW: no doubt Rmoney would run the same types of lies if Obama were white. Republicans have repeatedly run similar racist ads against white Democrats ("Willie Horton" -- Dukakis); the ads this year happen to work particularly well because Obama is black. Never mind that they're lies from beginning to end. ...

... Susan Page of USA Today: "Romney defends the welfare ads as accurate, accusing Obama of offering state waivers as a political calculation designed to 'shore up his base' for the election." ...

... Tim Noah Translation: "President Obama doesn't represent you; he represents a lot of people on welfare. And you know what they look like." Noah writes, "Of course, Romney isn't interested in the facts; he's interested in associating Obama with black and Hispanic undesirables bent on collecting welfare benefits and robbing white elderly people of their health insurance.... Like Poppy Bush, Romney is not a racist himself. He is, arguably, something worse: A man who, because he has no particularly pronounced views himself, is willing to say just about anything to get himself elected president." ...

... David Firestone of the New York Times: "If Mr. Obama intended his welfare waiver as a political trumpet blast to his base, he had a very strange way of showing it. The actual waivers ... were never publicly announced by the administration." CW: apparently the lazy welfare bastards spend all that free time poring through federal regulations to see what-all is in it for them. Just like Romney & his tax attorneys, they know how to game the system.

... Ed Kilgore of Washington Monthly: "... conservative activists have for decades argued that the 'liberal base' of the Democratic Party is an alliance between a government-dependent 'underclass' and 'elites' determined to socialize the country who use po' folk as their pawns.... That's a big part of their inveterate Obama Hatred: the president is the incarnation of both the snooty secular-socialist 'elites' and the minority underclass."

      ... Jim Vandehei & Mike Allen of Politico: "Mitt Romney conceded President Barack Obama has succeeded in making him a less likable person, but he offered a defiant retort to those hoping he will open up this week: 'I am who I am.' Romney quoted that Popeye line three times in a 30-minute interview with Politico about his leadership style and philosophy, swatting away advice from Republicans to focus on connecting with voters in a more emotional, human way at this convention. Instead, he vowed to keep his emphasis -- in the campaign and any administration to follow -- on a relentlessly goal-driven, business-minded approach that has shaped his life so far."

It's Official! Paul Krugman: "... the draft Republican platform says of Medicare and Medicaid,

The first step is to move the two programs away from their current unsustainable defined-benefit entitlement model to a fiscally sound defined-contribution model.

      ... That means that instead of Medicare as we know it, which pays your medical bills, you'd get a lump sum which you can apply to private insurance -- they'll yell when we call it a voucher, but that's what it is.... It's basically a way to deny health care to people while denying that you're doing so. You don't say, 'we won't pay for this care', you just hand people a voucher and let them discover that it won't buy adequate insurance. It's health-care rationing...."

Priorities USA, a pro-Obama superPAC, hits Governor Romney:

Jonathan Weisman of the New York Times: "The House speaker, John A. Boehner [R-Ohio], on Monday cautiously predicted victory for Republicans up and down the ticket in November, but he avoided saying that a Republican victory would mean a mandate for the sweeping changes to Medicare that Mitt Romney and Representative Paul D. Ryan have proposed."

Conservative Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker has an excellent essay in the Daily Beast titled "What the *#@% Is Wrong With Republicans?! It's not just Akin. By pushing some of the most invasive state policies in modern history, the men of the GOP are driving their party off a cliff.... The GOP, through its platform, its purity tests, pledges, and its emphasis on social issues that divide rather than unite, has shot itself in the foot, eaten said foot, and still managed to stampede to the edge of the precipice."

Jackie Calmes of the New York Times: "President Obama received a briefing on Monday afternoon about Tropical Storm Isaac as it approached hurricane force, but aides say no decision has been made to cancel his campaign trip on Tuesday to two swing states, Iowa and Colorado."

Sarah Wheaton of the New York Times: "Charlie Crist, the former Republican governor of Florida who ran for the Senate as an independent, will speak at the Democratic National Convention next week, taking yet another step away from his erstwhile party. Ben LaBolt, an Obama campaign spokesman, confirmed Mr. Crist's role just a day after he endorsed the president for re-election."

Congressional Races

Women are "one Supreme Court Justice away" from overturning Roe v. Wade:

     ... Jess Bidgood of the New York Times: "While Ms. Warren does not mention her opponent in the ad, she alludes to legislation that she brought up on the campaign trail last week -- including [Sen. Scott] Brown's vote last year against the Paycheck Fairness Act, an unsuccessful bill intended to ease the way for litigation over gender discrimination in pay, and his support for the Blunt amendment, a failed measure that would have allowed employers to deny coverage for treatments like birth control based on philosophical or religious exceptions."

Rape Is a Lot Like Consensual Sex Between Unmarried Adults. Tara Culp-Ressler of Think Progress: "Tom Smith, the Republican challenging Sen. Bob Casey's (D-PA) seat, suggested that having a child out of wedlock was analogous to rape during an interview with a reporter at a press club this afternoon, claiming that it would have a 'similar' effect on a father."

Our Exceptional Judiciary

Manny Fernandez of the New York Times: Texas County Judge Tom Head, "a Republican who serves as the county's emergency management director..., made international headlines [when] ... he said he was expecting civil unrest if President Obama is re-elected, and that the president would send United Nations forces into Lubbock ... to stop any uprising.... He has not apologized, though he said that his statements were taken out of context.... Kenny Ketner, the chairman of the Lubbock County Democratic Party, has called for Mr. Head to resign, as did the local newspaper, The Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, which wrote in an editorial that Mr. Head 'threw civility out the window and went in a bizarre direction that not only embarrassed himself but all county and West Texas residents.' Gilberto Hinojosa, the chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, publicly questioned Mr. Head's 'mental competency to hold elected office.'" ...

... Here the Avalanche-Journal's editors urge Head to resign.

James Barr of the New York Times: Vincent Sgueglia, an upstate New York judge, after signing his own carry permit in 2005, took his Smith & Wesson to the courthouse in Owego, New York, where he tried to repair a faulty firing mechanism -- um, with bullets in the chamber. So the gun went off. Fortunately, the bullet lodged in the wall instead of in somebody's head. The State Commission on Judicial Conduct censured him.

News Ledes

Weather Channel: "Isaac's peak impacts are bearing down on the Gulf Coast beginning today. Hurricane warnings continue for portions of the northern Gulf Coast, including New Orleans, Biloxi and Gulf Shores as Tropical Storm Isaac continues its northwestward march. Hurricane watches are posted as far west as Morgan City, La. In addition, a number of tropical storm warnings are in effect. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Panhandle." With video. ...

... Update: "Isaac has strengthened into a hurricane just as its peak impacts are bearing down on the northern Gulf Coast. Hurricane Isaac will pound the region with storm surge flooding, heavy rainfall, strong winds and an isolated tornado threat Tuesday into Thursday." With video. ...

... Update: "Hurricane Isaac made its first U.S. landfall along the extreme southeastern Louisiana coast at 6:45 p.m. Tuesday evening, but quickly veered west back over water. Isaac will continue to move very slowly near the Louisiana coast into Wednesday. Since Isaac is moving at a snail's pace, the hurricane will pound the northern Gulf Coast with storm surge flooding, heavy rainfall, strong winds and possible isolated tornadoes through Wednesday." With video.

Washington Post: "A federal court on Tuesday threw out Texas's redistricting plans, saying the maps drawn by the Republican-led legislature undermined the political clout of minorities who are responsible for the state's population growth. The three-judge special panel in Washington said Texas could not prove that plans for the state's congressional districts and both houses of the legislature were not drawn without intentional discrimination against the state's burgeoning Latino population. In addition, it said new district lines removed the 'economic guts' from congressional districts now held by African-Americans."

Washington Post: "The Obama administration announced strict new vehicle fuel-efficiency standards Tuesday, requiring that the U.S. auto fleet average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025, an uncontroversial move that, unlike other administration energy policies, was endorsed by industry and environmentalists alike."

Washington Post: "French President Francois Hollande became the first Western leader to call on Syria's rebel movement to form a provisional government, putting additional pressure on President Obama to back the diplomatic gambit or authorize U.S. military action to protect civilians."

New York Times: "An Israeli judge ruled on Tuesday that the state bore no responsibility for the death of Rachel Corrie, the young American woman who was run over by a military bulldozer in 2003 as she protested housing demolitions in the Gaza Strip."

National Journal: "Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania's longest-serving senator who lost his bid for reelection in 2010 after three decades in Washington, has been hospitalized with a 'serious illness,' according to a Philadelphia media outlet." ...

     ... Washington Post Update: "Former senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania is being treated again for cancer, his office confirmed Tuesday."

The Commentariat -- August 27, 2012

CW: still in business. Spent the day hanging hurricane shutters -- turned out to be pretty easy -- and picking up lawn decorations -- urns, etc., I could lift 5 or 6 years ago, not so much now! Mostly working in a driving rain didn't make these chores much more fun. Update: looks like I did my "preparations" during the worst of the storm for this area.

"The Comeback Skid." Paul Krugman: "Both [Paul Ryan & Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey] have carefully cultivated public images as tough, fiscally responsible guys willing to make hard choices. And both public images are completely false."

Susan Saulny of the New York Times: "After five hours of anticipation, Representative Ron Paul of Texas took the stage [in Tampa] at his 'We Are the Future' rally and proclaimed his 'liberty movement' alive and well, despite efforts to declare it dead or shut it out of the Republican National Convention." (See also Presidential Race.)

Presidential Race

As contributor From-the-Heartland writes, Matthews is terrific in this segment:

     ... What's pathetic is that none of the rest of those geniuses on "Morning Joe" get it. Tom Brokaw is the biggest phony of them all.

Dan Balz & Jon Cohen of the Washington Post: "The Republican National Convention opens this week with President Obama and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney running evenly, with voters more focused on Obama's handling of the nation's flagging economy than on some issues dominating the political debate in recent weeks. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Romney at 47 percent among registered voters and Obama at 46 percent -- barely changed from the deadlocked contest in early July." CW: this is consistent with a Fox "News" poll published Friday.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist (R-Florida) endorses President Obama in a Tampa Bay Times op-ed: "As Republicans gather in Tampa to nominate Mitt Romney, Americans can expect to hear tales of how President Obama has failed to work with their party or turn the economy around. But an element of their party has pitched so far to the extreme right on issues important to women, immigrants, seniors and students that they've proven incapable of governing for the people. Look no further than the inclusion of the Akin amendment in the Republican Party platform, which bans abortion, even for rape victims. The truth is that the party has failed to demonstrate the kind of leadership or seriousness voters deserve." Read Crist's whole essay. It's pretty powerful.

"The Do-Over." A funny-but-true Web video by the Obama campaign. It runs 1:43; too bad they can't make a few swing state TV buys:

Matea Gold of the Los Angeles Times: "Mitt Romney said Sunday that he gained no tax benefits by investing part of his fortune in funds based in the Cayman Islands and other overseas jurisdictions, or using a Swiss bank account, saying President Obama's campaign was unfairly accusing him of 'some kind of unsavory action. There was no reduction -- not one dollar reduction in taxes -- by virtue of having an account in Switzerland or a Cayman Islands investment,' [Romney]... told Chris Wallace in a recorded interview broadcast on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'The dollars of taxes remained exactly the same. There was no tax savings at all'":

... Really? Joe Conason of the National Memo: "On the same day that Mitt Romney cracked his birther 'joke,' new evidence indicated that he and his partners at Bain Capital have used questionable methods to avoid federal taxes -- including a scheme that transforms corporate stock into untaxed offshore 'derivatives,' and a practice that converts management fees into capital gains, which are taxed at a far lower rate. While nobody has asked to see the Republican candidate's birth certificate, as he said at a Michigan rally on Friday, everybody has a renewed interest in examining the tax returns he continues to withhold." ...

... ** PLUS, Zack Carter, et al., of the Huffington Post: despite claiming he left Bain Capital in 1999, "according to his 2010 tax return..., Romney ... reaps lucrative tax breaks for 'active' participation in the private equity firm he founded, as well as a host of other investments.... Even if Romney could persuade the IRS his involvement was legitimately active, that still leaves him in a rhetorical jam: For tax purposes, he claims an active status; for political purposes, he claims to have zero to do with the investments.... By describing many of his investments as active, Romney saves himself millions of dollars in taxes. With those active investments, he is also securing a tax break few Americans enjoy: When he wins, he's paying a 15 percent rate on the gain. When he loses, he's writing it off at 35 percent, meaning that tax policy is subsidizing Romney's risk.... In other words, Romney didn't build that, at least not without taxpayer backing."

... Look, Ma. I Can Speak out of Both Sides of My Mouth. Zack Ford of Think Progress: "Just two weeks after a Romney spokesperson faced a barrage of conservative criticism for highlighting the success of the governor's Massachusetts health care law, Romney himself bragged that the measure has expanded access to women's health care services, including contraception.... He has pledged to repeal Obamacare, characterized the law's provision to expand coverage for contraception as an attack against religion, and has suggested that women should 'vote for the other guy' if they expect improved access to birth control.... In the Fox interview, Romney also reiterated his desire to defund Planned Parenthood, arguing that taxpayer dollars should not fund abortion. Abortion constitutes only 3 percent of the organization's services and it's covered by private funds." With video. ...

... AND I can keep on whining, "Obama's picking on me."

Michael Shear of the New York Times: "At the height of the Republican National Convention this week, a potential Category 2 hurricane bearing winds greater than 100 miles per hour appears likely to slam into the Gulf Coast, perhaps close to the already battered city of New Orleans.... Russ Schriefer, a top adviser to Mr. Romney who is helping to produce the convention, told reporters that organizers were keeping a close eye on the storm and may yet adjust the schedule if necessary." ...

     ... Update: Shear & Jim Rutenberg have a more detailed story: "The prospect of a major storm blowing through the Gulf of Mexico toward New Orleans upset the tight choreography of the Republican convention on Sunday, straining the party's highly scripted plans for showcasing Mitt Romney and raising the possibility that news media attention could shift elsewhere." ...

... Karen Tumulty & Nia-Malika Henderson of the Washington Post on the same subject. ...

... Alex Roarty of the National Journal has a great piece on which party luminaries won't be speaking at the GOP convention.

New York Times Editors: "A long history of social extremism makes Paul Ryan an emblem of the Republican tack to the far right."

Ron Paul Delegates Get the "Nosebleed Seats." Steve Freiss of Politico: "The Republican National Convention seating chart, obtained by Politico Sunday, shows the delegations from Nevada, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota and Oklahoma all located on the outer fringe of the convention floor. Each are states with significant Paul followings." ...

... AND speaking of endorsements (see Charlie Crist above), John Harwood of the New York Times: Rep. Ron "Paul, in an interview, said convention planners had offered him an opportunity to speak under two conditions: that he deliver remarks vetted by the Romney campaign, and that he give a full-fledged endorsement of Mr. Romney. He declined. It wouldn't be my speech,' Mr. Paul said. 'That would undo everything I've done in the last 30 years. I don't fully endorse him for president.'"

Emily Schultheis of Politico: "Speaking to reporters at a press conference in Sarasota, Fla., Donald Trump said Mitt Romney's birth certificate quip in Michigan last week may have been a lighthearted joke, but that the issue of President Obama's birth certificate is far from settled. 'What I think doesn’t matter -- he has his views and many other people disagree with him as you know,' Trump said. '...But he did make a joke, and some people thought it might not be a joke. It happens to be an issue that a lot of people believe in … many, many people believe in it so maybe I would have handled it differently, but he's running for president and I'm with him 100 percent.'" ...

     ... Update: Isaac Holds the Trump Card. Jason Horowitz of the Washington Post: "As recently as Saturday afternoon, [Donald] Trump was scheduled to collect the Sarasota Republican Party’s Statesman of the Year award and then swoop down to Tampa for a day of wall-to-wall media interviews, meetings with top donors to Mitt Romney's campaign and then, apparently per the presidential candidate's request, a 'surprise' publicity stunt on the convention floor. But these plans went by the wayside after convention officials canceled Monday's events because of Tropical Storm Isaac, which is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane."

New Definitions of Rape: "Detail"; "Method of Conception." Zack Beauchamp of Think Progress: "Governor Bob McDonnell (R-VA) today claimed the issue of a rape exception to abortion was a 'detail' to be left up to states and Congress. On ABC's This Week, George Stephanopoulos confronted the Governor and Party Platform Chair with the absolutist anti-abortion language in the platform he led the development of.... The practical effect of the [Constitutional] amendment [advocated in the GOP platform] would be to render any law that allowed for any abortion in any case unconstitutional.... McDonnell's view of the plight of pregnant rape victims appears to be par for the course in the contemporary GOP. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) recently referred to rape as simply one 'method of conception.'" With video.

Josh Margolin & Beth DeFalco of the New York Post: "Gov. Chris Christie wasn't willing to give up the New Jersey statehouse to be Mitt Romney's running mate because he doubted they'd win, The Post has learned. Romney's top aides had demanded Christie step down as the state's chief executive because if he didn't, strict pay-to-play laws would have restricted the nation's largest banks from donating to the campaign — since those banks do business with New Jersey." CW: you want to take everything coming out of the Post with a grain of salt, but the theory sounds plausible.

Jonathan Chait of New York on what Romney/Ryan are up to: "Blowing up the welfare state and affecting the largest upward redistribution of wealth in American history is a politically tricky project." to do that, the GOP is making its last stand as the whites-only party, assembling its base of crackpots to give themselves one last chance to destroy the social safety net & secure income inequality. CW: how stupid is this? Even if they succeed, & their plan is not totally implausible, won't the next Congresses undo the fruits of their diabolical plot? If Chait is right -- and he may be -- Republicans are counting 100 percent on the stupidity of the electorate. Not a bad bet. ...

... Thomas Edsall in the New York Times on how Romney has subtly introduced racism into the campaign. And, hey, why shouldn't he? Eighty-nine percent of people who identify as Republicans are white-white-whitey-white. Edsall asks at the end of his column whether or not R&R will keep it subtle. He doesn't even mention Friday's birther "joke," which should answer his question. ...

... Philip Gourevitch of the New Yorker: "If [Romney] lets the Party's culture war define him, and goes down as its casualty, he will have nobody to blame but himself. He always says that he would rather be talking about how he would fix the beleaguered economy, but so far he has scarcely been more forthcoming on that subject than he has on his income taxes. If he knows what to do, he should tell us. Or is he waiting, betting that things will get worse? Bad news for America remains Romney's best hope."

Paul Harris of the Guardian: "Romneyville" protesters set up tent encampment in Tampa just inside the "restricted" zone for the GOP convention.

News Ledes

Washington Post: six troops who tried to burn 500 copies of the Koran in Afghanistan received unspecified administrative punishments. P.S. The Army made them stupid: "The investigation ... cited evidence of a jarring lack of religious awareness and cultural training among the U.S. troops."

AP: "Four Army soldiers based at Fort Stewart, [Georgia] killed a former comrade and his girlfriend to protect a militia group they formed that stockpiled assault weapons and plotted a range of anti-government attacks, prosecutors told a judge Monday.... In Washington state..., the group plotted to bomb a dam and poison the state's apple crop. Ultimately, prosecutors said, the militia's goal was to overthrow the government and assassinate the president."

The Hill: "President Obama on Monday declared a state of emergency for Louisiana, which is expected to be in the path of Tropical Storm Isaac. The action by Obama makes federal funding to the state available immediately, as the tropical storm gained strength Monday, barreling towards the Gulf Coast. The storm is expected to hit the region late Tuesday or early Wednesday, according to forecasters." ...

... The Weather Channel's hurricane tracker for Tropical Storm Isaac is here. "Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Isaac continues its west-northwestward march into the Gulf of Mexico.Isaac poses a potential serious threat to portions of the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday."

Mother Nature Thumbs Her Nose at the U. S. National Climate Deniers' Convention in Tampa. Washington Post: "The extent of Arctic sea ice reached a record low Monday, according to the University of Colorado National Snow and Ice Data Center, and is on track to decline further in the next two weeks."

Case Closed. Sort of. BuzzFeed: "The trial court judge in California who has taken over hearing the federal court case challenging Proposition 8, the state's amendment limiting marriages to one man and one woman, ordered the case closed today -- which would allow same-sex couples to marry in California. The couples, however, will have to wait on the Supreme Court to be able to marry. A stay of the case by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals pending the Supreme Court's determination of whether it takes the case means that a 'mandate' will not issue allowing Ware's order today to go into effect."

Guardian: "Fifteen men and two women have been found beheaded in Afghanistan's southern Helmand province. Officials said the victims were killed by Taliban insurgents as punishment for attending a mixed-sex party with music and dancing."

AP: "More than a dozen Greenpeace activists have intercepted a ship carrying Russian oil workers to a floating oil platform< in Russia<'s Arctic. Greenpeace said in a statement on Monday that 14 activists chained themselves to the anchor chain of the vessel which was carrying Gazprom's workers to the Prirazlomnaya platform in the Pechora Sea. Gazprom is pioneering Russia's oil drilling in the Arctic. The state-owned company installed the platform there last year and is preparing to drill the first well."

The Commentariat -- August 26, 2012

CW: I'll be spending Sunday -- as I did most of Saturday -- preparing for an unwelcome visit from Isaac. By Monday, I probably won't have power. The last two times a hurricane hit here, the power was out for 5 days. So I'll be back when I'm back. Update: Isaac is forecast to move in a more westerly direction, leaving SW Florida just out of the "forecast cone." Doesn't change my plans for today, but it might mean I mostly retain power.

The Times has a good feature on the 1969 moon landing, which begins here. Produced in 2009, the Times is reprising it because of the death of Neil Armstrong (see yesterday's Ledes).

Prof. Robert Self in the New York Times on conservatives & the "antisocial contract." "The social contract says that though our individual fates differ, we have a collective destiny, too. Many of us respond viscerally to comments from politicians like Mr. Akin because he leaves us wondering what place for women Republicans see in that collective future.... What liberal women saw [in the 1970s] as routes to equality, conservatives saw as invasions of the private sphere of morality, an invasion only a huge, interventionist government could accomplish."

The New York Times Editors are appalled at the failure of the Justice Department to prosecute the fraud & other unlawful acts that brought us the Great Recession. "As far back as 2009, when the Justice Department lost a financial fraud case against a pair of hedge fund managers at Bear Stearns, it seems to have made an institutional determination that it could not win against big banks and top bankers. That stance has dovetailed with the Obama administration's emphasis on protecting the banks from any perceived threat to their post-bailout recovery."

The Economist: "... the past seven years have seen a fivefold increase in people [in the U.S.] who call themselves atheists, to 5% of the population, according to WIN-Gallup International, a network of pollsters. Meanwhile, the proportion of Americans who say they are religious has fallen from 73% in 2005 to 60% in 2011."

The Spy Who Was Sent out in the Cold. Jeff Stein of the Washington Post: the travails of Gwenyth Todd, an American expert on the Middle East.

Presidential Race

Scary Picture Horror Show. Art by Victor Kerlow for the New York Times.

Jeff Zeleny & Jim Rutenberg of the New York Times: "Mitt Romney is heading into his nominating convention with his advisers convinced he needs a more combative footing against President Obama in order to appeal to white, working-class voters." CW: because so far he's been playing nice.

Seriously, Girls, We Love Ya. Holly Bailey of Yahoo! News: "Mitt Romney and ... Rep. Paul Ryan made a direct appeal to female voters Saturday, telling supporters at an Ohio rally that, if elected, they would do more to help women in business."

Ben Feller of the AP: "President Barack Obama said Mitt Romney has locked himself into 'extreme positions' on economic and social issues and would surely impose them if elected, trying to discredit his Republican rival at the biggest political moment of his life. In an interview with The Associated Press, Obama said Romney lacks serious ideas, refuses to 'own up' to the responsibilities of what it takes to be president, and deals in factually dishonest arguments that could soon haunt him in face-to-face debates":

     ... The full transcript of the interview is here.

... David Leonhardt of the New York Times: "Only four years after Democrats seemed on the verge of historic policy gains, Republicans could reverse many of those gains and then some. They could cut the top tax rate to its lowest level in 80 years (as Mr. Romney proposes) and make major changes to federal programs.... A Romney administration would ... take a more laissez-faire path than any wealthy country has previously tried." ...

... A hard-hitting Obama campaign ad -- "Mitt Romney -- An End to the Medicare Promise":

... ** Carol Giacomo of the New York Times on Romney's plan to force-feed the Pentagon. "Linking a budget to the G.D.P. is a bizarre way of addressing defense needs -- which rationally should be based on a disciplined analysis of threats and the nation's tolerance of risk. This certainly won't provide any incentive for reform in a Pentagon that spends with more waste and less economic bang for the buck than other federal departments." CW: Giacomo doesn't say so, but Romney's plans for outlandish defense spending are not about defense. They're about military contractors.

"Too Late to Shake that Etch-a-Sketch." Maureen Dowd: "Even if he wanted to, Mitt couldn't reveal himself. He has recast his positions so many times, he doesn't seem to know who he is.... Even teaming up with the most policy-specific Republican House member in a bid for reflected ideological clarity has not worked. Rather than Mitt's gaining focus, Paul Ryan is losing it.... Even though he once seemed to have sensible, moderate managerial instincts, he won't stop ingratiating himself with the neo-Neanderthals. That's the biggest reveal of all."

Congressional Races

Nick Carey of Reuters: "Missouri conservatives say they are rallying around U.S. Senate candidate Todd Akin despite his controversial comments about rape because they are outraged that 'establishment' Republican Party leaders tried to railroad him out of the race." CW: altho it's certainly a longshot, pissed-off anti-abortion fanatics might just forget to pull the lever for Willard. Combined with moderates horrified by the Ryan-Akin no-exceptions stance, Obama might squeak out a win in Missouri. (Okay, when pigs fly. But remember, I'm facing a weather situation in which some wild boar -- of which we have a'plenty -- will fly.)

News Ledes

The Weather Channel's hurricane tracker for Tropical Storm Isaac is here.

AP: "The son of the founder of the powerful Haqqani network was been killed in an airstrike in Pakistan, Afghanistan's intelligence agency said Sunday, providing the first public confirmation of rumors that have been swirling for days about the key member of a militant group the U.S. considers one of the most dangerous in the region. The Taliban rejected reports of Badruddin Haqqani's death, however, saying that he was alive and well in Afghanistan."

AP: "At least three employees at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement have made serious complaints alleging inappropriate sexual behavior by [Suzanne Barr,] a senior Obama administration political appointee and longtime aide to Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano.... Barr is accused of telling a male subordinate he was 'sexy' during an office party and asking a personal question about his anatomy. She is separately accused of offering to perform a sex act with a male subordinate while on business travel in Bogota, Colombia. She is also accused of calling a male subordinate from her hotel room and offering to perform a sex act."

New York Times: "Syrian troops have killed hundreds of people suspected of being rebels and sympathizers in the last two days in a town outside Damascus, dumping executed victims in basements and a mosque, activists said, raising the specter of a massacre by Syrian troops as bad as any atrocity committed since the Syrian uprising began nearly 18 months ago."

Washington Post: "China's arms exports have surged over the past decade, flooding sub-Saharan Africa with a new source of cheap assault rifles and ammunition and exposing Beijing to international scrutiny as its lethal wares wind up in conflict zones in violation of U.N. sanctions."