The Commentariat -- October 9, 2016

Dustin Waters, et al., of the Washington Post: "After a protracted and violent journey up the southeast U.S. seaboard, a weakened Hurricane Matthew made landfall Saturday in South Carolina, inundating a vast stretch of the coast with torrential rain and triggering floods far inland." -- CW ...

... Weather Channel updates are here.

Presidential Race

Ashley Rodriguez of Quartz on where to watch the second presidential debate, which will begin at 9 pm ET. Unlike posts from a couple of other reputable news outlets, Rodriguez notes that NBC is not carrying the debate. But there's this: "NBC is partnering with AltspaceVR to host a debate watch party in virtual reality. Anyone with the Altspace VR app on Oculus Rift, Samsung Gear VR, or HTC Vive can join in. (Just beware of technical challenges.)" -- CW

Annie Karni of Politico: "The bombshell Donald Trump video that surfaced Friday has so dramatically altered expectations for Sunday's town hall debate that one Democrat close to Bill and Hillary Clinton had a new view of what may unfold in St. Louis: 'Expect Armageddon.' Hillary Clinton will arrive at the Washington University debate stage Sunday prepped for battle against an opponent many of her allies believe has already lost the election. Trump, in contrast, will walk onto the debate stage with nothing to lose.... On Saturday evening, Trump previewed his nothing-to-lose strategy -- he retweeted Juanita Broaddrick, the woman who accused Bill Clinton of raping her in 1978. Bill Clinton has denied the accusation, which Broaddrick made in 1999, in the wake of his affair with Monica Lewinsky."

Columbus [Ohio] Dispatch Editors reluctantly endorse Hillary Clinton for president: "... Donald Trump is unfit to be president of the United States. Democrat Hillary Clinton, despite her flaws, is well-equipped for the job.... The stakes are too high to sit out this election and risk letting Trump misuse the awesome power of the presidency." The Dispatch urges voters to elect Hillary Clinton." CW: The Dispatch has not endorsed a Democrat in 100 years.

Tim Mak & Andrew Desiderio of the Daily Beast: "Leaked Podesta Emails Show Bernie Was Right." CW: I think most of us knew that all along. As I wrote during primary season, bankers were not going to pay Clinton big bucks to harangue them for an hour on what horrible, greedy people they were. ...

... Nikita Valdimirov of the Hill: "Bernie Sanders on Saturday responded to the leaked emails that reveal parts of Hillary Clinton's Wall Street speeches, a major point of contention during their primary battle, by reiterating his support for the Democratic Party platform." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Louis Nelson, et al., of Politico: "Vice President Joe Biden issued a scathing rebuke of ... Donald Trump, saying his talk about groping women against their will amounts to 'sexual assault.' ;The words are demeaning. Such behavior is an abuse of power. It's not lewd. It's sexual assault. -- Joe,' Biden said in a tweet Saturday afternoon." -- CW

Nate Cohn of the New York Times: Donald Trump "had only an 18 percent chance to win the election Friday morning before the videotape's release, according to The Upshot's model, with that number set to shrink almost daily unless ... Mr. Trump could make inroads. Now, of course, it is very easy to imagine how he sinks farther as a result of the new video. In the history of October surprises, it is hard to think of anything comparable at this stage of a presidential race. Obviously, it is too early to say exactly what effect it will have on Mr. Trump. But the videotape fits all of the major criteria for a damaging scandal, and it puts congressional Republicans in a precarious position." -- CW ...

... Nate Silver: "... if we knew on Friday night that this would be a big story, it's become an even bigger story throughout the day today (Saturday) as dozens of GOP elected officials have either repudiated Trump, or unendorsed him, or called for him to resign his position at the top of the ticket. Trump had unusually low levels of support from these 'party elites' to begin with... Now, the floodgates have opened, and the whole party is fleeing him. We've never seen anything like this in a modern American election campaign.... Many of those Republican defections are strategic rather than sincere, of course.... But the timing of this is just about as bad as possible for Trump. Even before the 'hot mic' tape, there were reports that GOP elected officials might abandon Trump if he had a poor second debate.... A Clinton landslide is no more far-fetched than a Trump victory -- and given the events of the past 24 hours, probably less so." CW: See also Jamelle Bouie on Republicans' "stragetic" morality, linked below.

Kyle Cheney of Politico: "Donald Trump hunkered down Sunday morning -- pulling back top aides from planned national appearances -- while previewing a vicious attack on tonight's debate stage, targeting Bill Clinton's past infidelities and Hillary Clinton's alleged bullying of his victims. Only Rudy Giuliani was dispatched to inject the Trump campaign's position into the national conversation during a round of Sunday morning news shows. Giuliani condemned Trump's description of making unwanted sexual advances against women -- kissing and groping them -- but also dismissed them as 'talk' among men.... Interim Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Donna Brazile on ABC's 'This Week' said that, despite the tape being more than 10 years old, truly reflects the real Trump. 'You can draw a straight line between what Donald Trump said in 2005 and what he's been saying every day on the campaign trail over the last year and a half,' she said.... 'It's really for Donald Trump to try to answer for it and take responsibility for it,' Tim Kaine said on CNN. 'It's not just words, it really is ... talking about a pattern of sexual assault.'" -- CW

Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "Donald Trump on Sunday downplayed the exodus of top Republicans who have called on him to step aside or rescinded their prior endorsements. 'Tremendous support (except for some Republican "leadership"),' the Republican presidential nominee tweeted Sunday morning. 'Thank you.'... 'So many self-righteous hypocrites. Watch their poll numbers - and elections - go down!' he predicted in a tweet." -- CW

Hel-lo, Rudy Sunday. Rebecca Morin of Politico: Donald Trump's "campaign manager and the Republican National Committee chairman have canceled all appearances on the Sunday news shows. Kellyanne Conway, Trump's campaign manager, was to appear on 'Fox News Sunday' and NBC's 'Meet The Press,' but has been replaced with former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, an avid Trump backer. RNC chairman Rience Priebus was also to appear on CBS's 'Face the Nation,' but was replaced by Giuliani.... Priebus was also set to speak on ABC's "This Week." Giuliani is appearing instead." -- CW

Jenna Johnson, et al., of the Washington Post: "The Republican Party plunged into an epic and historic political crisis Saturday with just a month to go until Election Day as a growing wave of GOP lawmakers called on defiant presidential nominee Donald Trump to drop out of the race in the wake of a video showing him making crude sexual remarks." -- CW

Michael Barbaro & Patrick Healy of the New York Times take a stab at explaining why Republicans suddenly got religion when they saw the Trump sexual predator video. Nice try, boys, but you missed Jamelle Bouie's point, which gets to the heart of the matter. -- CW ...

** Jamelle Bouie: "Hours before we learned of Trump's boasts about grabbing women 'by the pussy,' the Republican nominee affirmed his false belief that the Central Park 5 -- five teenagers, four of them black and one Latino, convicted on charges of attacking and raping a 28-year-old white woman, all five since exonerated by DNA evidence -- were guilty. The same Republican leaders who rushed to condemn Trump for his remarks on a hot mic were silent about his continued attacks on these men.... Republicans didn't say anything because Trump wasn't attacking Republicans.... The GOP could tolerate his place at the top of the ticket so long as he restricted his threats to groups outside the party.... We now have a list of all the things the Republican Party will tolerate solely for the sake of the White House and a continued congressional majority. It's a long list." Read it. -- CW

Karen Tumulty, et al., of the Washington Post: "With less than a month to go before the election, a major political party is poised to walk away from its own presidential nominee -- a situation with few precedents in American political history. There is little to guide Republicans, collectively and individually, except the growing realization that they have risked their party's survival by tying it to Donald Trump as he has led them into a crisis that is both extraordinary and utterly predictable." -- CW

The media and establishment want me out of the race so badly - I WILL NEVER DROP OUT OF THE RACE, WILL NEVER LET MY SUPPORTERS DOWN! -- Donald Trump, Saturday evening, in a tweet

There is nothing that will cause his dropping out. That is wishful thinking of the Clinton campaign and those who have opposed him for a long time. -- Rudy Giuliani, to reporters Saturday evening

... Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: "Mr. Trump showed up just before 5 p.m. in the lobby of Trump Tower in Manhattan, accompanied by his campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, and his eldest child, Donald Trump Jr. Security officials stopped reporters and attempted to bar them from getting near Mr. Trump as he went outside and immersed himself in a crowd of supporters, who had gathered hours earlier for a rally.... Senator John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, withdrew his support on Saturday for Donald J. Trump as the Republican Party descended into chaos.... 'I have wanted to support the candidate our party nominated,' he said in a statement. He added: 'But Donald Trump's behavior this week, concluding with the disclosure of his demeaning comments about women and his boasts about sexual assaults, make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy.'" -- CW

Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Senate leaders are letting Republican candidates and officeholders weigh the scandal and decide for themselves how to react without pressure from above.... But they gave a clear signal of which way the GOP leadership is leaning when Senate Republican Conference Chairman John Thune (S.D.), who is in charge of the conference's messaging operation, tweeted Saturday that Trump should step aside and let his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, have the party's nomination ... 'effective immediately.' -- CW

Come on, that's how real men talk! -- Real Man rallying at Trump Towers Saturday too afraid to give his name

Have you heard of Alex Jones? Alex has the behind-the-scenes people, like Larry Nichols. And I was even able to call Larry personally, and he said he asked Bill one time, how come Hillary flies to L.A. once a month? And he said, Hillary is going to witchcraft meetings.... I mean, didn't travel with her to these witchcraft meetings but, as a Christian I have spiritual discernment. I can discern Hillary. I can tell she's into that stuff. --Johnny Rice, a messianic Christian at the Trump rally ...

... Shall we revisit the "basket of deplorables" remark? Steven Shepard, et al., of Politico: "A wave of Republican officials abandoned Donald Trump Saturday, but, at least for now, rank-and-file Republicans are standing by the party's presidential candidate, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted immediately after audio was unearthed Friday...[V]oters are largely viewing Trump's comments through their own partisan lens: 70 percent of Democrats say Trump should end his campaign, but just 12 percent of Republicans -- and 13 percent of female Republicans -- agree...Nearly three-quarters of Republican voters, 74 percent, surveyed on Saturday said party officials should continue to support Trump. Only 13 percent think the party shouldn't back him." --safari...

... Allegra Kirkland of TPM: "Some voters greeted prominent Republicans with boos and loud heckling at Saturday events, after the officials spoke out against the vulgar and redatory remarks Donald Trump made about women in a newly unearthed recording. 'Paul Ryan sucks!' Milwaukee resident Paul Anderson yelled at a fall festival in Elkorn, Wisconsin, where the House speaker addressed a crowd, according to the Los Angeles Times. 'You turned your back on us,' other hecklers shouted, breaking into chants of 'We want Trump!' Trump was originally supposed to appear with Ryan at the event. But Ryan disinvited Trump hours after the recording surfaced.... In Las Vegas, Rep. Joe Heck (R-NV), who's running to replace Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), also was booed loudly as he read a statement calling for Trump to withdraw and be replaced by a candidate 'with honor' who deserved to be president." CW: Thanks to contributor Gloria for the link. Like Gloria, I am suffering from a severe case of walking schadenfreude, but even without medication, I don't feel bad at all. ...

... Anne Laurie of Balloon Juice reprises some Trump supporters' reactions to GOP leaders' exodus. The one by David Duke is so special; Yair Rosenberg's retort is excellent. -- CW

Alex Isenstadt of Politico: "The Republican National Committee on Saturday appeared to at least temporarily halt the operations of some of the 'Victory' program that is devoted to electing Donald Trump.... In an email from the RNC to a victory program mail vendor, with the subject line 'Hold on all projects,' the committee asked the vendor to 'put a hold' on mail production." -- CW

Isaac Chotiner of Slate: "The discussion will now slowly shift to Republican hopes of shoring up down-ballot races and (just wait) the creation of Trump TV. But we cannot and should not forget: A couple days ago it was still fathomable that America could have voted into office the biggest threat to the country in decades." -- CW

Marc Fisher of the Washington Post: "On a new batch of recordings from Howard Stern's radio shows aired Saturday by CNN, Trump said that he would 'have no problem' having sex with 24-year-olds, that he 'couldn't care less' if he satisfies the women he sleeps with, that 'it's checkout time' once women reach the age of 35 and that he had engaged in three-way sex. 'Haven't we all?' Trump told Stern on his SiriusXM satellite radio show in 2008.... Trump also described barging in on nude Miss Universe beauty pageant contestants in their dressing room, characterizing his visits as inspections by the contest's owner." -- CW ...

... Paulina Firozi of the Hill: "A producer from ... 'The Apprentice' used Twitter on Saturday night to warn that the now infamous leaked audio of Trump is just the beginning. 'As a producer on seasons 1&2 of #theapprentice I assure you: when it comes to #trump tapes there are far worse,' tweeted Bill Pruitt.... Pruitt is not the first to suggest there will be more revelations about the GOP presidential nominee's past behavior. According to reports by Fox News' Ed Henry, top Trump adviser Ben Carson suggested there would be more 'bombshells' to come." -- CW ...

     ... Update. Julia Reinstein of BuzzFeed: "Pressure is building on The Apprentice producers to release unaired raw footage of the show after Friday's release of a 2005 hot mic video.... More than 20 former contestants, crew members, and editors told the Associated Press that Trump treated women on the show inappropriately, including talking about which contestants he would like to have sex with and rating them by breast size." -- CW ...

... Annals of "Journalism, Ctd.

CW: The big fail here is NBC News. They've already had major problems with their former news anchor Brian Williams (who made up war stories until a real war vet outted him), with Matt Lauer who grilled Hillary Clinton & threw Trump softballs, & now with Billy Bush, who worked for NBC Entertainment for a long time & now works for NBC News. And what is the news division doing? Trump has been running for POTUS for more than a year, & either NBC News ordered its staff not to snoop around NBC Entertainment for damaging Trump tapes, or its reporters decided Trump is too big to fall. Either way, it's NBC "News" now.

     Update. Margaret Sullivan of the Washington Post has the same questions of NBC "News," asked & unanswered: "Without adequate answers from the top, made publicly, it may not be unreasonable to conclude that one of the nation's largest news companies simply wasn't doing its job."

     Update Update. Slow Lawyers, Entertainment. Paul Farhi of the Washington Post reports on NBC's excuse: "NBC News was aware of video footage of Donald Trump making lewd and disparaging remarks about women for nearly four days, a network executive said Saturday, but held onto the recording until lawyers finished reviewing the material. The network's caution led to an awkward result: NBC News was scooped by The Washington Post, which took just five hours to vet and post its story.... The news division agreed to let 'Access Hollywood' break the story first." But "AH" wasn't going to air it until at least sometime this week.

     CW: So NBC "News" had a highly-time-sensitive story on which the future of the free world might depend, & they let it sit in an attorney's inbox, then held off to let the money side of the business decide when it would be most fun to run the news. Sorta like, "Boss, there's a monster tornado coming. We have to warn the public!" "Nah, we're rebroadcasting 'Twister' this Friday; we'll do the tornado story around that."

    CW: And I have one more question: Did Billy Bush keep this tape secret from Cousin Jeb!? If not, why the hell didn't Jeb! use it in the primaries? Is he too, too fastidious? Somehow I think the Bush family Thanksgiving might look a helluva lot like one you may be dreading in your own family. Maybe Billy & Jeb! will get in a hilariously awkward fistfight.

Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "... Donald Trump said in an interview Saturday that he would not drop out of the race under any circumstances, following calls from several prominent members of his party to do so. 'I'd never withdraw. I've never withdrawn in my life,' Trump told The Washington Post in a phone call from his home in Trump Tower in New York. 'No, I'm not quitting this race. I have tremendous support.... They're not going to make me quit, and they can't make me quit,' Trump said of associates and party leaders who have urged him to step aside." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Vaughn Hillyard of NBC News: "Mike Pence expressed dismay Saturday over Donald Trump's lewd comments about women, saying in a statement that he was 'offended' but wanted to give his embattled running mate a chance to 'show what is in his heart' at the second presidential debate.... Pence earlier cancelled an appearance in Wisconsin [at Paul Ryan's shindig] amid the fallout from Friday's video." -- CW (Also linked yesterday.)

Kyle Cheney & Burgess Everett of Politico: "In May, Sen. Deb Fischer stood silently as her nephew led a drive to humiliate fellow Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse for his opposition to Donald Trump. On Saturday, she publicly joined Sasse's side. As Republicans abandon Trump en masse over newly revealed lewd comments about women, Fischer joined Sasse in urging [Trump] ... to step aside. 'The comments made by Mr. Trump were disgusting and totally unacceptable under any circumstance,' she tweeted Saturday afternoon, adding: "It would be wise for him to step aside and allow Mike Pence to serve as our party's nominee.'" -- CW (Also linked yesterday.)

Burgess Everett, et al., of Politico: "After standing aside Trump during months of bombastic remarks aimed at Muslims, Latinos and women, Trump's sexually aggressive and lewd remarks, caught on tape in 2005 and aired Friday, were the breaking point. On Saturday morning, New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte was the first vulnerable GOP incumbent to withdraw her support. Joe Heck, a Republican running in Nevada, quickly followed suit. 'I wanted to be able to support my party's nominee, chosen by the people, because I feel strongly that we need a change in direction for our country. However, I'm a mom and an American first, and I cannot and will not support a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting women. I will not be voting for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton and instead will be writing in Governor Pence for president on Election Day,' Ayotte said." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... CW: Yeah, it's funny how all these Republicans were putting up with every horrifying piece of crap from Trump's horrifying history of abusing, cheating and/or insulting everybody but Putin (last week Ayotte said Trump "absolutely" would make a good role model for his kids, a remark she later retracted), but suddenly when he's caught on tape boasting about committing multiple sexual felonies, they're all shocked & discombobulated.

Alan Rappeport: "While the idea of replacing Mr. Trump has been a fantasy for some 'Never Trump' Republicans for months, the reality is that removing him from the ticket at this point would be exceedingly complicated. Here's a look at some of the questions that Republicans are mulling." -- CW ...

... Jonathan Swan of the Hill: "The Republican Party would face enormous political and legal problems should it decide to replace Donald Trump as its presidential nominee, election law experts agree. While a number of prominent Republican lawmakers are urging Trump to step down due to his unacceptable sexual comments, the legal community is engaged in a separate argument about whether the Republican National Committee has the authority to remove Trump without his consent." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... CW: While Rappeport's & Swan's reports are accurate, GOP leaders have the power to effectively force Trump to drop out. If the party cut off his funding & renounced him, Trump would know he was looking forward to a humiliating defeat. That might cause him to bow out gracelessly, screaming about the "rigged system" & "losers" & "Washington corruption"; whatever. I don't know that would help the party in the election, but party officials could pretend to go down with dignity.

Paulina Firozi of the Hill: "Melania Trump says she was offended by her husband Donald Trump's 'unacceptable' sexual remarks about women, but is asking the nation to accept his apology. Melania Trump said in a Saturday statement that the 'words my husband used are unacceptable and offensive to me.... This does not represent the man that I know. He has the heart and mind of a leader.'" -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Kurtis Lee of the Los Angeles Times: "'Entertainment Tonight' co-anchor Nancy O'Dell, the woman who was the focus Donald Trump's lewd comments in a 2005 audio recording, said Saturday she was saddened by the Republican nominee's comments. 'When I heard the comments yesterday, it was disappointing to hear such objectification of women,' O'Dell said in a statement. 'The conversation needs to change because no female, no person, should be the subject of such crass comments, whether or not cameras are rolling. Everyone deserves respect no matter the setting or gender.'" -- CW

The Boys & Girls on the Bus. Melissa Warnke of the Los Angeles Times: "Sexist jackasses like Trump don't exist in isolation; they need support from opportunists.... See: Billy Bush egging Trump on and fanning his ego. See: Arianne Zucker, the actress, flirting along when they ask for hugs.... It takes a village to create a misogynistic monster. And it takes a party to create a misogynistic monster candidate.... Just as Trump needed Billy Bushes and Arianne Zuckers in his private life, he's needed spineless opportunist politicians in his quest for the presidency.... None of [Trump's history of misdeeds] was enough to make the Republican leadership take a stand against Trump.... The GOP's hateful party platform and desperation to promote a white American identity enabled the rise of a deeply revolting presidential candidate." (Emphasis added.) -- CW

Dahlia Lithwick of Slate: "... when the story broke on Friday that Donald Trump was caught on a live mic bragging about how he could kiss women -- and grab their genitals -- without their consent because he was famous, I initially wondered what the news was. Was there anyone alive surprised here?... Historically, all these Republicans could actually pretend Trump was just kidding; they could deny that Trump was who everyone knew that he was.... The groping tape ... reveals both the real Trump and the performer Trump, and it turns out the former is actually scarier than the latter.... The monstrous woman-hater is actually the person under the performer." -- CW

... Guardian: .. de Niro made the video "as part of a campaign urging people to vote in the 8 November poll. De Niro is one of a number of celebrities who took part in the #VoteYourFuture initiative but his scathing contribution was considered to be too partisan to be included in the final campaign, and was instead released separately by the producers on Friday." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

Ruben Vives, et al., of the Los Angeles Times: "Two Palms Springs[, California,] police officers were fatally shot and another wounded Saturday while responding to family disturbance call, and a SWAT team remains at the scene, police said." -- CW ...

     ... The story has been updated: "Just before 1 a.m. Sunday, more than 12 hours after the shooting, the suspect was taken into custody, the Riverside County Sheriff's Department said. In a sheriff's statement early Sunday, the suspect was identified as John Felix, 26, of Palm Springs, who was taken to a hospital for treatment of non-life-threatening injuries. The statement said he surrendered peacefully." -- CW

NBC New York: "A Long Island Rail Road train derailed in New Hyde Park Saturday night, though most of the hundreds of passengers were uninjured. An eastbound commuter train struck a work train at about 9:10 p.m., causing the commuter train to derail and the work train to catch fire, according to Nassau County police and the MTA." -- CW

The Commentariat -- October 8, 2016

Afternoon Update:

Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "... Donald Trump said in an interview Saturday that he would not drop out of the race under any circumstances, following calls from several prominent members of his party to do so. 'I'd never withdraw. I've never withdrawn in my life,' Trump told The Washington Post in a phone call from his home in Trump Tower in New York. 'No, I'm not quitting this race. I have tremendous support.... They're not going to make me quit, and they can't make me quit,' Trump said of associates and party leaders who have urged him to step aside." -- CW ...

... Vaughn Hillyard of NBC News: "Mike Pence expressed dismay Saturday over Donald Trump's lewd comments about women, saying in a statement that he was 'offended' but wanted to give his embattled running mate a chance to 'show what is in his heart' at the second presidential debate.... Pence earlier cancelled an appearance in Wisconsin [at Paul Ryan's shindig] amid the fallout from Friday's video." -- CW ...

... Kyle Cheney & Burgess Everett of Politico: "In May, Sen. Deb Fischer stood silently as her nephew led a drive to humiliate fellow Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse for his opposition to Donald Trump. On Saturday, she publicly joined Sasse's side. As Republicans abandon Trump en masse over newly revealed lewd comments about women, Fischer joined Sasse in urging the Republican presidential nominee to step aside. 'The comments made by Mr. Trump were disgusting and totally unacceptable under any circumstance,' she tweeted Saturday afternoon, adding: "It would be wise for him to step aside and allow Mike Pence to serve as our party's nominee.'" -- CW ...

... Burgess Everett, et al., of Politico: "After standing aside Trump during months of bombastic remarks aimed at Muslims, Latinos and women, Trump's sexually aggressive and lewd remarks, caught on tape in 2005 and aired Friday, were the breaking point. On Saturday morning, New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte was the first vulnerable GOP incumbent to withdraw her support. Joe Heck, a Republican running in Nevada, quickly followed suit. 'I wanted to be able to support my party's nominee, chosen by the people, because I feel strongly that we need a change in direction for our country. However, I'm a mom and an American first, and I cannot and will not support a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting women. I will not be voting for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton and instead will be writing in Governor Pence for president...,' Ayotte said." -- CW ...

... CW: Yeah, it's funny how all these Republicans were putting up with every horrifying piece of crap from Trump's horrifying history of abusing, cheating and/or insulting everybody but Putin (last week Ayotte said Trump "absolutely" would make a good role model for his kids, a remark she later retracted), but suddenly when he's caught on tape boasting about committing multiple sexual felonies, they're all shocked & discombobulated. ...

Jonathan Swan of the Hill: "The Republican Party would face enormous political and legal problems should it decide to replace Donald Trump as its presidential nominee, election law experts agree. While a number of prominent Republican lawmakers are urging Trump to step down due to his unacceptable sexual comments, the legal community is engaged in a separate argument about whether the Republican National Committee has the authority to remove Trump without his consent." -- CW ...

... Paulina Firozi of the Hill: "Melania Trump says she was offended by her husband Donald Trump's 'unacceptable' sexual remarks about women, but is asking the nation to accept his apology. Melania Trump said in a Saturday statement that the 'words my husband used are unacceptable and offensive to me.... This does not represent the man that I know. He has the heart and mind of a leader.'" -- CW ...

... MEANWHILE. Nikita Valdimirov of the Hill: "Bernie Sanders on Saturday responded to the leaked emails that reveal parts of Hillary Clinton's Wall Street speeches, a major point of contention during their primary battle, by reiterating his support for the Democratic Party platform." -- CW

*****

The New York Times' storm-tracker is here. The latest at 9:12 am ET: "Heavy rains from Hurricane Matthew lashed Georgia and South Carolina early Saturday as the storm began to lose some of its strength. Charleston and Savannah were both reporting flooding, with water breaching the sea wall in Charleston. Video of Savannah showed water rushing through the streets amid reports that the Savannah River was out of its banks. In Georgia, where the governor had ordered residents in six coastal counties to evacuate, the hurricane set a storm surge record for Tybee Island, near the state's border with South Carolina." -- CW ...

... The Weather Channel's coverage of Hurricane Matthew continues. ...

     ... The main story at 7:45 pm ET, Friday, by Ada Carr: "Hurricane Matthew, in its destructive march along the Florida coast on Friday, caused widespread flooding, damage and power outages across the state. At least five people have died." -- CW ...

... The Miami Herald links to numerous Matthew-related stories on its front page. ...

... Azam Ahmed of the New York Times: "As Haiti picks through the detritus left by Hurricane Matthew, more bodies are turning up every hour. Some estimates said that more than 800 people had died in the storm, more than double what the government has reported, though it acknowledged that the toll was unknown. In one part of the country's southern peninsula, nearly 30,000 homes were destroyed and 150 lives lost, officials said. And a full accounting of damage has not even started." -- CW

Presidential Race -- R-Rated Edition

David Sanger & Charlie Savage of the New York Times: "The Obama administration on Friday formally accused the Russian government of stealing and disclosing emails from the Democratic National Committee and from a range of prominent individuals and institutions, immediately raising the issue of whether President Obama would seek sanctions or other retaliation for the cyberattacks. In a joint statement from the director of national intelligence, James Clapper Jr., and the Department of Homeland Security, the government said the leaked emails that have appeared on a variety of websites were 'intended to interfere with the U.S. election process.' The emails were posted on the WikiLeaks site and newer ones under the names DCLeaks.com and Guccifer 2.0.... In the first presidential debate..., Hillary Clinton ...blam[ed] Russia for the attacks.... Donald J. Trump, said there was no evidence that Russia was responsible, suggesting that the Chinese could be behind it, or it 'could be somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds.'" -- CW: This was, of course, an instance of Trump's defending Putin. ...

... Ruby Cramer of BuzzFeed: "Excerpts from Hillary Clinton's closed-door paid speeches, including to financial firms, appeared to be made public for the first time on Friday when WikiLeaks published hundreds of hacked emails from her campaign chairman. The speech transcripts, a major subject of contention during the Democratic primary, include quotes from Clinton about her distance from middle-class life ('I'm kind of far removed'); her vision of strategic governing ('you need both a public and a private position'); and her views on trade, health care, and Wall Street ('even if it may not be 100 percent true, if the perception is that somehow the game is rigged.' John Podesta, the Clinton campaign chairman, was the latest victim in a wave of hacks on key figures in Democratic politics and the political establishment in what administration officials say is an effort by Russia to undermine the election." -- CW ...

... Amy Chozick, et al., of the New York Times: "In lucrative paid speeches that Hillary Clinton delivered to elite financial firms but refused to disclose to the public, she displayed an easy comfort with titans of business, embraced unfettered international trade and praised a budget-balancing plan that would have required cuts to Social Security, according to documents posted online Friday by WikiLeaks.... Mrs. Clinton comes across less as a firebrand than as a technocrat at home with her powerful audience, willing to be critical of large financial institutions but more inclined to view them as partners in restoring the country's economic health.... [Some of her] comments could have proven devastating to Mrs. Clinton during the Democratic primary fight, when Mr. Sanders promoted himself as the enemy of Wall Street and of a rigged economic system." -- CW ...

... Kyle Cheney & Sarah Wheaton of Politico: "Clinton's campaign would not confirm the authenticity of the emails -- though it did not explicitly deny it either. Podesta tweeted on Friday evening that he did not 'have time to figure out which docs are real and which are faked.'" -- CW

Amy Chozick & Patrick Healy of the New York Times: Hillary Clinton "is holed up with aides to practice her body language, facial expressions, vocal cadences and more conversational answers about college debt, the heroin epidemic and other topics that have come up at her campaign events.... Donald J. Trump scoffs at all that. 'I don't need to rehearse being human,' he said in an interview last week. He and his advisers say that Sunday night's town hall-style format ... will showcase his comfort on television and his direct style.... Trump advisers [are] acknowledging privately that Sunday's debate is a must-win for their candidate." CW: Hey, Anderson & Martha, ask him about the "locker-room banter." Let's see if he blames Bill Clinton again. ...

... Sexual Predator Runs for President. Not Your Usual Friday Afternoon News Dump:

** David Fahrenthold of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump bragged in vulgar terms about kissing, groping and trying to have sex with women during a 2005 conversation caught on a hot microphone, saying that 'when you're a star, they let you do it,' according to a video obtained by The Washington Post. The video captures Trump talking with Billy Bush, then of 'Access Hollywood,' on a bus with the show's name written across the side. They were arriving on the set of 'Days of Our Lives' to tape a segment about Trump's cameo on the soap opera.... The tape was recorded several months after he married his third wife, Melania.... 'I did try and f--- her. She was married,' Trump says.... 'Grab them by the p---y,' Trump says. 'You can do anything.'... 'This was locker-room banter, a private conversation that took place many years ago. Bill Clinton has said far worse to me on the golf course -- not even close,' Trump said in a statement. 'I apologize if anyone was offended.'... Mike Pence was at a diner in Toledo when the news broke.... But the reporters traveling with Pence were quickly ushered out of the diner by campaign staff, before they could ask Trump's running mate about it, according to Politico." Thanks to MAG for the lead. -- CW ...

... "The Post has edited this video for length." ...

... Here's a transcript of the videotape. ...

     ... Update. Julie Pace & Jonathan Lemire of the AP: "... Mike Pence, was 'beside himself' and his wife was furious, according to a person familiar with their thinking.... Two Utah Republicans, Gov. Gary Herbert and Rep. Jason Chaffetz withdrew their endorsements, and former Gov. Jon Huntsman did call for the candidate to step aside and let Pence take his place." -- CW ...

     ... Update. "Access Hollywood" reports that "Nancy," the married woman Trump said he failed to fuck, was Nancy O'Dell, then a co-host with Billy Bush of "Access Hollywood." -- CW ...

... Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: "The lewd discussion offers more insight into how Mr. Trump has spoken about women in private and adds to evidence that he has a penchant for sexist behavior.... Mr. Trump's history of making sexist comments about women has caused him trouble before, but he has largely brushed them off as things he said as an entertainer. The new recording could pose more difficult challenges for the Trump campaign, and Democrats were already pressuring Republicans to disavow Mr. Trump.... Mr. Trump has scheduled with Speaker Paul D. Ryan this weekend an awkward affair.... Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist, [said], 'I recommend Paul come down with a dental emergency tonight." -- CW ...

     ... Update. Heroic Paul Ryan Disinvites Serial Molester. James West of Mother Jones: "Speaker Paul Ryan issued a statement Friday night condemning Donald Trump's 2005 comments about groping women. Ryan said he was 'sickened' by the video, published by The Washington Post on Friday evening, and said the GOP nominee would no longer join him for an event Saturday morning." -- CW ...

     ... NEW. Oh, Wait. Not So Heroic. Jeremy Stahl of Slate: "But if you look at the statement he released Friday, Ryan is giving himself plenty of room not to back out [of his endorsement of Trump] now. 'I hope that Mr. Trump treats this situation with the seriousness it deserves' Ryan says, meaning that if Trump says anything about it that Ryan can point to as 'serious,' then he will have nothing to worry about from the Speaker. If history is any guide, he doesn't." CW: See also Trump's "serious" face in the fake-apology video below. I'm sure that counts! ...

... Shane Goldmacher, et al., of Politico: "The Republican Party was in a state of turmoil on Friday night.... As the hours passed, some Republicans began to call for Trump to step aside, leaving the presidential race to vice presidential nominee Mike Pence. Rob Engstrom, the Chamber of Commerce's national political director, was the first to call for Trump to quit, followed by Rep. Mike Coffman, George Pataki and Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock. Sen. Mike Lee said: 'You are the distraction... I respectfully ask you, with all due respect, to step aside.'" -- CW ...

... Jenna Portnoy of the Washington Post: "Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) on Friday night called for Donald Trump to drop out of the presidential race, breaking her campaign-long silence on the Republican presidential nominee.... Comstock, who faces a competitive reelection challenge in her northern Virginia district, said the Republican Party should nominate Trump's runningmate, Mike Pence, in his place or choose another candidate." -- CW ...

... ** Update. Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "During a 90-second videotaped appearance, Mr. Trump ... offered a strikingly brief articulation of regret for a decade-old audiotape in which he boasted about grabbing women's genitals and said he could have his way with women because of his fame. But his real message, which appeared early Saturday, was one of defiance. He described the controversy that upended the Republican Party for most of Friday as a mere 'distraction,' and said that his vulgar remarks captured on the tape were nothing compared with the way Bill and Hillary Clinton had mistreated women.... Grudging though they seemed, Mr. Trump's comments were a marked departure from his lifelong resistance to any admission of fault." --CW ...

     ... CW: Who was Trump so mad at when he cut this video? Probably those "weak" campaign lackeys who made him fake-apologize and the "losers" who condemned him for a little frat-boy talk when he was a boy of 59. ...

... Asawin Suebsaeng of the Daily Beast: "Less than two years after a female journalist [Nancy O'Dell] supposedly rebuffed Donald Trump's sexual advances -- as heard on newly discovered video -- he allegedly tried to have her fired from one of his beauty pageants.... O'Dell co-hosted (along with her Access Hollywood colleague Billy Bush) the Trump-owned Miss USA pageant in 2004 and 2005.... In 2007, TMZ reported that the real-estate mogul wanted to kick O'Dell to the curb as Miss USA host because he allegedly didn't like the way she looked while she was several months pregnant. (Trump's people did not deny the report at the time, and simply refused to comment.)... Ultimately, Trump's bid to get O'dell nixed (whatever his true motivation) was unsuccessful. O'Dell was under contract with NBC, which decided to keep the five-months pregnant host." -- CW ...

... James Hamblin of the Atlantic: "The thing about [Trump]'s words isn't that they're explicit or graphic. It's that they're misogynistic, coercive, abusive, and dehumanizing. And as my colleague David Graham notes, illegal: The candidate is describing forcing himself on women, bragging that they're disinclined to object because of a power structure on which he knowingly capitalizes. Framing this as lewd, even extremely so, is a reminder of the frequent reluctance to name sexual assault.... Trump ... excused his comments as 'locker room banter.' To take him at his word, he misunderstands the ritual: Talking explicitly about sex is different from bragging about forcing yourself on people." -- CW ...

... Danielle Paquette of the Washington Post: "Corey Lewandowski, Trump's former campaign manager, also defended his former boss. 'He speaks from the heart,' Lewandowski said Friday evening on CNN. 'He speaks the way many people speak around the dining room table.'... The Justice Department writes on its website, sexual assault is 'any type of sexual contact or behavior that occurs without the explicit consent of the recipient.' That would include grabbing an unsuspecting woman 'by the p----.' 'That's nothing less than someone talking about committing sexual violence -- the kissing, the grabbing,' said Bridgette Stumpf, co-executive director of Network for Victim Recovery of D.C. 'He's talking about women as if they're objects, as if they don't have a right to consent to the way someone touches them. This is how sexual violence becomes accepted in our culture.'" ...

     ... CW: I'll take Lewandowski at his word (altho clearly the organ from which Trump was speaking was not the heart): that Lewandowski talks about "grabbing pussy" at the dinner table. In most families, I'd guess, this is not common dinner-table banter. (In my family, I had a rule: "No talking about body-parts at the dinner table." I'll admit my children found inventive -- & fairly hilarious -- ways to break the rule.) ...

... New York Times Editors: "And so we have now heard the Republican nominee for president of the United States bragging about repeated sexual assault.... In a statement released after the video became public on Friday, Mr. Trump tried to minimize the conversation as 'locker room banter.' As if the problem were just his words rather than his actions." -- CW ...

I know everyone is going to jump on Donald Trump for admitting to serial sexual battery on tape, but try to remember Hillary once had a cold -- Daniel Roberts

... Tara Golshan of Vox: "Trump's response to the video was the exact opposite of an apology: It normalized an extraordinarily degrading kind of banter, attempted to deflect the attention to a rival public figure in Bill Clinton, and used a conditional 'if anyone was offended,' placing 'the onus on others to react -- to claim that they were offended or not,' [linguist Edwin] Battistella points out.... For Trump, this is a strategy. When pushed on his shortcomings or his own failings, he tries to deflect on others. It's sorry behavior, but it's not an apology." -- CW ...

     ... CW: The only thing that surprised me about Trump's non-apology apology is that he didn't blame the women -- arguing that they "asked for it" by dressing or behaving in a sexually-inviting manner. Maybe that tack will play out in late-nite tweets -- if the campaign gives him back his phone. ...

NEW. Paulina Firozi of the Hill: "CNN host Erin Burnett read aloud on air a story from her friend who said Donald Trump tried to kiss her in 2010.... Burnett said her friend was struck by the detail about Tic Tacs in the audio of Trump talking about kissing women. 'Trump took a Tic Tac, suggesting I take them also. He then leaned in, catching me off guard, and kissed me almost on the lips. I was freaked out,' Burnett says, quoting a message from her friend." -- CW ...

... Nicholas Kristof reports on the allegations of Jill Harth, a businesswoman who says Trump tried to rape her & later stiffed the company her then-boyfriend owned. Some years later, however, Harth became Trump's girlfriend & later asked for a job on the Trump campaign. Kristof finds her story believable. -- CW ...

     ... NEW. Jeremy Stahl has more on Harth's 1997 lawsuit against Trump for groping her numerous times & then attempting to rape her in Ivanka Trump's bedroom. ...

... Steve M.: "I think the election is over." -- CW ...

... Emily Yahr & Elahe Izadi of the Washington Post: Billy "Bush, 44, is the nephew of George H.W. Bush and cousin of George W. Bush.... Billy Bush ... had a rocky transition [from 'Access Hollywood'] when he joined the 'Today' show as a co-anchor this summer, thanks to a viral argument with weatherman Al Roker about whether embattled swimmer Ryan Lochte lied [to Bush] about his alleged robbery.... Bush also hosted both the Miss Universe and Miss USA pageants between 2003 and 2005, and again in 2009. Trump purchased the Miss Universe organization in 1996.... Bush was presumably added to the 'Today' show roster to improve ratings for the 9 a.m. hour. But on Friday, as the Trump video circulated the Internet, comments flooded in, many from women -- the 'Today' show's target audience." -- CW ...

... Annals of Journalism, Ctd. Paul Farhi of the Washington Post here, & Brian Stelter of CNN here on how the video came to light. Stelter reports that both "Access Hollywood," an NBC-owned show, & NBC News had the tape before Fahrenthold got it late Friday morning. "Access Hollywood" was "deciding what to do with it" & NBC News "hadn't quite finalized" a story. -- CW ...

... According to Stelter, an "Access Hollywood" producer remembered the tape partly because of this AP story by Garance Burke, published October 3: "In his years as a reality TV boss on 'The Apprentice,' Donald Trump repeatedly demeaned women with sexist language, according to show insiders who said he rated female contestants by the size of their breasts and talked about which ones he'd like to have sex with. The Associated Press interviewed more than 20 people -- former crew members, editors and contestants -- who described crass behavior by Trump behind the scenes of the long-running hit show, in which aspiring capitalists were given tasks to perform as they competed for jobs working for him." -- CW

Mr. Trump Goes to Washington. Nicholas Confessore of the New York Times has more on that time young Donald lobbied Congress to make him richer: "He even said that the recession had been caused by President Ronald Reagan's 1986 tax overhaul -- a conclusion few economists shared -- and could be ended only by allowing investor dollars to flow easily back into real estate. Mr. Trump even argued against the very basis of the policy: The best way to get a recovery, he said, was to raise income taxes on wealthy people, to prod them to invest again in syndicated real estate deals." See Steve Mufson & Max Ehrenfreund's WashPo story linked yesterday. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Philip Bump of the Washington Post: In 1989, Donald Trump took out a full-page ad in the New York Daily News aimed at "the Central Park Five," a group of five teens -- four blacks & one Hispanic -- accused of gang-raping & beating, nearly to death, a young white woman jogging in the park. "I want to hate these muggers and murderers. They should be forced to suffer and, when they kill, they should be executed for their crimes.," Trump wrote in the ad. The five, who confessed under police interrogations, later retracted their confessions & new evidence exonerated them. New York City paid them $40 million to settle their case. "What's remarkable, though, is that even as he's running for president, Trump stands by his excoriation of the five young men.... It barely needs to be mentioned that there's a potent racial element to this case.... What this case suggests is that Trump would be disinclined to moderate his original view on a subject, even if new evidence emerges.... This case combines a lot of the fault lines that lie beneath Trump's candidacy: divisions over race, an unwillingness to admit mistakes, his continued insistence on the centrality of crime concerns." CW: Presidential? Nope. ...

... Charles Pierce: "Do I have to point out how many ways this disqualifies Donald Trump from the position of decent human being, let alone from the position of president of the United States? There's the pure racism of the original ad. There's the pure racism of his still holding to the opinions expressed in the ad in the face of overwhelming scientific and empirical evidence. There's the know-nothing huffing at the legitimacy of the science used to exonerate the five men, which is reminiscent of the way he waves off the science of climate change and anything else that disturbs the fragile intellectual infrastructure of a career grifter." -- CW

Benjamin Wallace-Wells of the New Yorker views the story of Donald Trump's tax returns, released (in tiny part) by the New York Times, as a New York story, a story of real estate's loss of power to Wall Street technocrats, "the blacks," & a powerful newspaper that exposes his crooked deals. "If the Mitnick episode revealed anything about Trump, it was the direction of his narcissism, that he could take credit for an employee's expertise as if it were a condition of his own character." CW: Wallace-Wells uses a couple of literary references as metaphors, but he missed one that directly embodies his view of Trump: Edith Wharton's Age of Innocence, where the old-money real-estate moguls try to hang on while downtown banking becomes the new power center & a woman of questionable repute threatens their dynastic plans. They won the latter battle, but lost the war to the first.

Yahoo! News: "With just a little over a month until election day, Donald Trump has racked up zero major newspaper endorsements, a first for any major party nominee in American history. While newspaper endorsements don't necessarily change voters' minds, this year's barrage of anti-Trump endorsements could actually move the needle come November, experts say." -- CW

Meet Your Trump Supporters. Kurt Eichenwald of Newsweek on how Trump supporters have threatened him & other journalists, especially those who are Jewish (or even might be Jewish), female or black. "This is exceptional, a circumstance brought about by the gutter rants of Donald Trump and his refusal to condemn the racists, neo-Nazis and other deplorables who support him. That our country has reached this point, where the line between modern American political supporters and Hitler's brownshirts is becoming thinner by the day, is unacceptable. That GOP candidates have stood by and allowed this ugliness to flourish without aggressively condemning their candidate for what he has set loose, simply because they are seeking re-election or fear losing their jobs at the mid-terms, will stain the Republican Party for decades." -- CW

Other News & Views

Gardiner Harris of the New York Times: "President Obama cast his ballot [in Chicago] Friday, joking with staff members of the Chicago Board of Elections about being 20 years younger than he is.' -- CW

Robert Bateman of Esquire on three US ships that are traveling, probably through Hurricane Matthew, to provide aid to Haiti. "Apply this as you see fit." CW: Alas, I have no doubt that some or perhaps a majority of the Marines on this mission will not see fit to apply their own heroism in a appropriate way to the political issues of the day. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Carolyn Johnson of the Washington Post: "EpiPen-maker Mylan reached a $465 million settlement with the Justice Department to 'resolve questions that have been raised' about whether the Medicaid program overpaid for the lifesaving allergy injection, the company said in a release Friday afternoon. In recent weeks, many politicians have called for investigations into whether EpiPen was improperly classified in the Medicaid Drug Rebate program. Under the rebate program, the EpiPen has been classified as a 'non-innovator drug,' which means the company is required to pay only a 13 percent rebate. In contrast, brand name or drugs with a single source must pay a 23.1 percent rebate and an additional amount if price hikes occurred faster than inflation." -- CW

Way Beyond the Beltway

Peter Goodman of the New York Times: "For those blithely inclined toward the view that Britain would somehow find a way to sever its relationship with the European Union free of drama or financial consequences..., Friday was a sobering day of reckoning. As the British pound plunged some 6 percent against the American dollar in the span of two minutes in early trading in Asia, the markets offered a reminder that divorce tends to be messy, expensive and laced with uncertainties. It rarely ends happily.... More than anything, though, the precipitous drop seemed to attest to an increasingly unmistakable reality: Britain's vote to exit the European Union -- Brexit, in common parlance -- has put its commercial relationships with the world on uncertain and potentially perilous ground. That poses risks for the British economy, making its money less attractive to hold." ...

     ... CW: Here's another lesson: when voters base their "economic theories" on racism and/or isolationism, "it rarely ends happily."

The Commentariat -- October 7, 2016

Afternoon Update:

New York Times Hurricane Update: "Hurricane Matthew churned north along the coast of Florida on Friday, and state officials and forecasters shifted their focus to the danger of serious damage in Jacksonville later in the day. The hurricane stayed just far enough offshore to spare Central Florida a direct hit, and it weakened slightly overnight, but it was still a powerful Category 3 storm with winds of about 120 miles per hour." --CW ...

     ... Weather Channel reports are here.

Mr. Trump Goes to Washington. Nicholas Confessore of the New York Times has more on that time young Donald lobbied Congress to make him richer: "He even said that the recession had been caused by President Ronald Reagan's 1986 tax overhaul -- a conclusion few economists shared -- and could be ended only by allowing investor dollars to flow easily back into real estate. Mr. Trump even argued against the very basis of the policy: The best way to get a recovery, he said, was to raise income taxes on wealthy people, to prod them to invest again in syndicated real estate deals." See Steve Mufson & Max Ehrenfreund's WashPo story linked below.

Robert Bateman of Esquire on three US ships that are traveling, probably through Hurricane Matthew, to provide aid to Haiti. "Apply this as you see fit." CW: Alas, I have no doubt that some or perhaps a majority of the Marines on this mission will not see fit to apply their own heroism in a appropriate way to the political issues of the day.

*****

The Miami Herald is constantly updating hurricane-related stories linked on its front page & is allowing unlimited access to all stories. ...

... Renae Merle & Mark Berman of the Washington Post: "Packing winds of 120 mph, Hurricane Matthew lashed Florida's coast Friday after mass evacuations and state-of-emergency preparations ahead of the strongest storm system to hit the United States in a decade. Matthew's eye took aim at the shoreline just south of Cape Canaveral, bringing pounding surf, storm surges and possibly up to a foot of rain in some areas after Matthew roared through the Caribbean leaving widespread destruction and nearly 300 dead in Haiti, with some reports saying the toll there was much higher.... [Florida Gov. Rick] Scott said during a briefing Friday morning that more than 600,000 people lacked power due to the storm." -- CW ...

... Jason Samenow of the Washington Post: "A highly-populated, vast stretch of Florida's east coast faces its most extreme hurricane threat in modern history. Computer model forecasts have converged on the idea that Hurricane Matthew, which is intensifying, will directly strike the area between roughly West Palm Beach and the Georgia border. Packing maximum winds of 140 mph and stronger gusts, Matthew is poised to become the first Category 4 or stronger storm to make landfall in this region since records began in 1851.... It is likely to become a multibillion-dollar disaster given all of the infrastructure in its path." -- CW ...

... CW: Maybe you thought Florida Gov. Rick Scott sounded like a normal concerned governor as he urged Floridians to get out of the path of Hurricane Matthew. But he's still Lex Luthor. Patricia Mazzei & Kristen Clark of the Miami Herald: "Florida rejected a request Thursday from Hillary Clinton's campaign chief to extend the state's voter-registration deadline due to Hurricane Matthew. 'I'm not going to extend it,' Gov. Rick Scott told reporters in Tallahassee. 'Everybody has had a lot of time to register. On top of that, we have lots of opportunities to vote: early voting, absentee voting, Election Day. So I don't intend to make any changes.'" ... See also Rick Hasen's commentary, linked under Other News & Views.

... White House: "The President [Thursday] declared an emergency exists in the State of Florida and ordered federal aid to supplement state, tribal, and local response efforts due to the emergency conditions resulting from Hurricane Matthew beginning on October 3, 2016, and continuing." -- CW: Thursday afternoon, & we're already getting hurricane-related rain & wind in Fort Myers, on the Southwest Coast, which is nowhere near the projected point on landfall. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Joshua Partow & Brian Murphy of the Washington Post: "The death toll from Hurricane Matthew soared above 100 Thursday as the scope of the devastation in Haiti became clearer, officials said. Aid workers found vast numbers of damaged homes, as well as uprooted palm trees, toppled cellphone towers and downed power lines. Two days after the hurricane slammed into the Western Hemisphere's poorest nation with winds reaching 145 miles per hour, thousands of Haitians remained without power, communications or clean water. Aid groups warned that cholera could spread quickly, adding to the humanitarian crisis." -- CW ...

     ... The known death toll in Haiti has now reached nearly 300. -- CW

Presidential Race

As a vast weather event, exacerbated by climate change, strikes the East Coast of the U.S., Paul Krugman writes: "... there is a huge, incredibly consequential divide on climate policy. Not only is there a vast gap between the parties and their candidates, but this gap arguably matters more for the future than any of their other disagreements. So why don't we hear more about it?... It's really stunning that in the three nationally televised forums we've had so far -- the 'commander in chief' forum involving Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump, the first presidential debate and the vice-presidential debate -- the moderators have asked not a single question about climate. This was especially striking in Tuesday's debate.... It's time to end the [media] blackout on climate change as an issue." -- CW ...

... AND former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) wants the media to ask the rich, aged candidates more questions about Social Security, which Congress has set up to fail younger workers. -- CW

Why Aren't Americans Richer? Short Answer: Republicans. Simon Rosenberg in US News: "While median income is only $3,000 higher today than in 1989, it has not moved on a straight line.... It fell under President George H.W. Bush, rose steadily under President Bill Clinton, flatlined and then dropped under the second Bush, then declined as a result of the Great Recession and is now steadily rising again under President Barack Obama. By the end of this year incomes are likely to be 10 percent higher than they were at their recent nadir in 2012, and grew more in 2015 than in any single year of the modern era.... Other economic data from this period follow similar trend lines -- the annual deficit grew under both Bushes, and dramatically improved under Clinton and Obama. The unemployment rate rose under both Bushes, and fell during Clinton and Obama. The stock market had a modest rise under the first Bush, fell under the second and had explosive growth under Clinton and Obama. Three million net new jobs were created in the two Bush presidencies. Thirty million were created under Clinton and Obama." ...

     ... CW: The facts are why Republican rubes don't trust "scientists with their charts & graphs." Show Rosenberg's simple graphs to a Trumpbot, & he'll tell you all eggheads are liars, or if he's (Warning! oxymoron follows) a fair-minded Trumpbot, he'll say, "Yeah, but the jobs are all going to 'those people.' My cousin lost his job because ... [blah-blah] Affirmative Action [blah-blah] illegals." See also the stories linked below on Trump's 20th-century tax schemes. There are reasons ordinary Americans -- and the general economy -- do better when Democrats are in control.

Laurie Goodstein of the New York Times: "... a group of more than 75 evangelical leaders has released a declaration ... on the website Change.org on Thursday, accuses Mr. Trump of fueling racism and religious bigotry, and of denigrating women.... 'Racism is America's original sin,' the statement says. 'Its brazen use to win elections threatens to reverse real progress on racial equity and set America back.' The declaration does not extend support to Hillary Clinton, noting that she is 'both supported and distrusted by a variety of Christian voters.'" -- CW

Jesse Byrnes & Rebecca Savransky of the Hill: "Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt. hammered Donald Trump over his business record Thursday in a pitch to blue collar voters on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Sanders argued during a rally for Clinton in Dearborn, Mich., that the GOP nominee 'is manufacturing his ties in China, his clothing in Mexico, his furniture in Turkey.'... Sanders went after Trump for using 'manufacturing plants in Bangladesh' and accused the New York businessman of "exploiting poor people" by using cheap labor overseas. The independent Vermont senator is campaigning for Clinton on Thursday in Michigan, where he pulled out an upset win over her in the Democratic presidential primary in March." -- CW (Also linked yesterday.)

** Washington Post Editors: "The scope of the damage a President Trump could do cannot be fully predicted or imagined. His candidacy forces us to confront the extent to which democracy depends on leaders adhering to a set of norms and traditions -- civic virtues, to be old-fashioned about it. Mr. Trump has made clear his contempt for those virtues, norms and traditions: He despises the press, threatens his enemies, bullies the judiciary, disparages entire religions and nations, makes no distinction between his personal interest and the public good, hides information that should be revealed and routinely trades in falsehoods. Handed the immense powers of the presidency, what could such a man do? The honest answer: No one can be sure.... The nation should not subject itself to such a risk." CW: I'm not much of a fan of the Post's editorial board, but they have done very good work in explaining what a danger Trump presents to the nation.

Today in Donald Trump Consiracy Theories. Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "The federal government is allowing illegal immigrants to flow into the U.S. so they can vote, Donald Trump alleged Friday, fueling his own argument that November's presidential election will be rigged against him. At a roundtable Friday morning inside Trump Tower, a border patrol official told the Republican presidential nominee that agents have been advised not to deport illegal immigrants with criminal records, according to a pool report." -- CW

Shane Goldmacher of Politico: Republicans hoped a fake townhall-style meeting Trump recently scheduled in New Hampshire would serve as a sort of debate prep for Sunday's official fake townhall. It didn't. "'They were saying this is practice for Sunday,' [Trump] told the crowd in speech before the so-called town-hall. 'This isn't practice. This has nothing to do with Sunday.... 'I said forget debate prep. I mean, give me a break,' Trump said at one point. 'Do you really think that Hillary Clinton is debate-prepping for three or four days. Hillary Clinton is resting, okay?'... The format was nothing like what Trump will face in St Louis.... Yet even without the duress of an opponent, independent moderators and anything but softball questions from supporters, Trump struggled to drive any type of cohesive message, either about himself as a change agent or Clinton's shortcomings." -- CW ...

... Greg Sargent sort of implies that the future of the planet depends upon whether one screaming narcissist can exhibit some self-control for 90 minutes Sunday night. Sargent provides a video of Trump's inability to do that in the fake townhall. -- CW ...

... Jenna Johnson of the Washington Post: Donald Trump "appeared more controlled on the campaign trail on Wednesday and Thursday than he was last week, sticking with scripted speeches, mostly avoiding interviews and sending tweets that appeared to have been closely edited, if not entirely composed, by his staff. He denounced interruptions during debates, announced plans to campaign with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan in Wisconsin on Saturday and said he would avoid mentioning Bill Clinton's affairs during Sunday's town hall with Hillary Clinton in St. Louis." CW: This is the first election cycle I can recall where it was front-page news that a major-party presidential candidate did not say something incredibly wacky.

     ... But Wait, There's More. Johnson of the WashPo: "In the moments that Trump went off-script, stumbles returned. At a rally in Reno, Nev., on Wednesday night, Trump bragged about being able to properly pronounce the state's name and proceeded to mispronounce it. In an interview with a local television station, he seemed unfamiliar with a pivotal state issue -- the storage of nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain -- and said that if China and the United States became engaged in a trade war that hurt Trump's hotel in Las Vegas and other tourism businesses, he would 'cut off relationships with China.'" ...

     ... CW: That is, even though Trump has claimed he would put his business in a (ha ha "blind trust" run by his children), he would wreak international havoc if his businesses suffered. The United States of Trump would become just an arm of Trump, Inc., albeit a massive one. With a military. And nuclear arms.

** Jessie Drucker of Bloomberg: "The really big tax benefit available to Trump isn[t that he could take massive deductions after losing a ton of money. It's that he could lose other people's money -- but claim the deductions for himself." Not only that, Trump took advantage of tax laws not available to average Americans whose incomes fluctuate across years. ...

... CW: If you want to know how Congress let this happen, read Drucker's piece in conjunction with Mufson & Ehrenfreund's. Not only were Trump's tax breaks no accident, Trump himself (no doubt with the aid of his tax guys) helped create the legislation that privileged him over ordinary Americans. And of course he's lying about it now. ...

... That Was Then, This Is Fake. Steven Mufson & Max Ehrenfreund of the Washington Post: In 1991, Donald Trump lobbied Congress for a combination of higher tax rates for the rich and the restoration of special exemptions for real estate investment. Together, they would compel people seeking to lower their tax bills to invest in real estate. Trump called for accelerated epreciation of property and rules that encouraged certain investors to seek out 'passive losses' that could offset their other income and slash their steep tax bills.... The benefits became part of a suite of tax breaks that have buoyed the real estate industry and the wealthy developers behind it, [and undid a 1986 law "that streamlined tax brackets, cut rates, closed loopholes and eliminated tax breaks. President Reagan declared it 'a sweeping victory for fairness.'... [Today Trump] has invoked Reagan's tax legacy as a model for a new 'revolution.'... That sentiment is at odds with his 1991 House testimony...." -- CW ...

... CW P.S.: If you're all shocked that Congress bought Trump's argument, remember that he boasts about buying politicians.

Ben Schreckinger & Julia Ioffe in Politico: "A Republican lobbyist was earning hundreds of thousands of dollars to promote one of Vladimir Putin's top geopolitical priorities at the same time he was helping to shape Donald Trump's first major foreign policy speech. In the first two quarters of 2016, the firm of former Reagan administration official Richard Burt received $365,000 for work he and a colleague did to lobby for a proposed natural-gas pipeline owned by a firm controlled by the Russian government, according to congressional & lobbying disclosures.... The pipeline, opposed by the Polish government and the Obama administration, would allow Russian gas to reach central and western European markets while bypassing Ukraine and Belarus, extending Putin's leverage over Europe.... This spring, Burt helped shape Trump's first major foreign policy address, according to Burt and other sources.... The revelation of Burt's lobbying activity raises new questions about Russian influence in Trump's campaign." -- CW

Jonathan Easley of the Hill: "A group of 30 former GOP lawmakers signed a blistering open letter to Republicans on Thursday, warning that Donald Trump lacks the 'intelligence' and temperament to be president and urging the party to reject the Republican presidential nominee at the polls on Nov. 8." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Trump Family Values. Erin Corbett of the Raw Story: Eric Trump appeared on a radio program with ties to white nationalist James Edwards on Wednesday, proving yet again that the Trump campaign doesn't seem too concerned about its image, according to Right Wing Watch. He's the second Trump to do so.... After appearing on 'Liberty Roundtable' with [Sam] Bushman and Edwards earlier this year, Donald Jr. was under fire for agreeing to speak on the show with the white nationalist.... [Junior] denied knowing that Edwards would be on the show or that he had any knowledge of his background.... [Bushman syndicates Edwards' radio show.] Now that Eric spoke on the same radio talk show on which his brother appeared, it would seem that the Trump campaign isn't even trying to distance itself from the white nationalist movement." -- CW

Meet Your Trump Supporter. Matt Drudge -- Weather Is a Clinton Conspiracy. Eric Levitz of New York: "... Matt Drudge is concerned that this 'impending hurricane' narrative is a bit too convenient: One minute, Obama says climate change is real and could increase the frequency of extreme weather events; several years and hurricanes later, another extreme weather event appears just as Hillary Clinton is campaigning to succeed him.... As Vox's Libby Nelson notes, the Drudge Report then sent out [a] tweet, [to 'prove' the hurricane stories were hypes,] which links to an article that says nothing about the storm fizzling. ...

... Wait, Wait, There's More. It's a VAST Left-Wing Conspiracy. Will Oremus of Slate: "Lest anyone get the mistaken impression that this was pure, shameless, and dangerously uninformed speculation on Drudge's part, he followed this up by lodging some more specific allegations of meteorological misconduct. The National Weather Service, it turns out, is a secretive cabal whose members hoard the real weather data so that they can cook up fake forecasts to hoodwink the public into evacuating their homes for no reason.... Lest you think these are the delusional ramblings of a lone wingnut, my colleague Ben Mathis-Lilley points out that Rush Limbaugh has espoused almost exactly the same theory. ...

... CW: Do tell us, gentlemen -- is this all click-bait & ratings, or have you old boys begun to drool in your own soup?

MEANWHILE, Gary Johnson cannot name the leader of North Korea. Also dings Clinton for knowing too much & something about Syria, which has Aleppo in it. CW: I guess this is a good time to celebrate the wisdom of the editors & publishers of the Chicago Tribune, the New Hampshire Union Leader & other conservative newspapers who have endorsed Johnson.

Other News & Views

Sari Horwitz of the Washington Post: Because of the Supreme Court's 2013 Shelby County v. Holder ruling, "the Justice Department is significantly reducing the number of federal observers stationed inside polling places in next month's election at the same time that voters will face strict new election laws in more than a dozen states. These laws, including requirements to present certain kinds of photo identification, are expected to lead to disputes at the polls. Adding to the potential for confusion..., Donald Trump has called for his supporters to police the polls themselves for fraud.... The court said Congress has to come up with a new formula based on current data to determine which states should be subject to federal oversight. Congress has not yet acted.... The Justice Department said it will release a phone number and email address for voters to contact if they experience intimidation or harassment." -- CW ...

Rebecca Lai & Jasmine Lee of the New York Times: "One of every 40 American adults cannot vote in November's election because of state laws that bar people with past felony convictions from casting ballots. Experts say racial disparities in sentencing have had a disproportionate effect on the voting rights of blacks and Hispanics.... State laws that bar voting vary widely. Three swing states -- Florida, Iowa and Virginia -- have some of the harshest laws; they impose a lifetime voting ban on felons, although their voting rights can be restored on a case-by-case basis by a governor or a court. On the other end of the spectrum, Maine and Vermont place no restrictions on people with felony convictions, allowing them to vote while incarcerated.... The margin of victory in Florida in the 2000 presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush, for example, was 537 votes. An estimated 600,000 people in the state had completed their prison sentences but were not allowed to vote." -- CW (Also linked yesterday.) ...

... Rick Hasen in Slate: "... it would be a terrible perfect storm if the election again came down to Florida, but this time without a Supreme Court majority standing in the wings to end the dispute.... Litigation may begin even before the storm ends, with Democrats pushing to extend registration deadlines in Florida since Gov. Scott has said he will not extend them on his own.... With Trump's uncertainty about whether he would concede a close election to Clinton, this is a nightmare in the making." U.S. Senate Note to Judge Merrick Garland: "We have extended our commitment not to fill the position for which you applied." -- CW

Sari Horwitz: "President Obama granted clemency to another 102 inmates Thursday as he continued to release federal inmates serving long prison terms for nonviolent drug offenses. Obama has now commuted the sentences of 774 federal inmates, more than the previous 11 presidents combined. With 590 commutations this year, he has commuted the most individuals' sentences in one year in U.S. history, White House officials said. They said Obama will continue granting commutations to federal drug offenders through the remainder of his time in office." -- CW

Caitlin Dickerson of the New York Times: "The Obama administration is delaying deportation proceedings for recent immigrants in cities across the United States, allowing more than 56,000 of those who fled Central America since 2014 to remain in the country legally for several more years. The shift, described in interviews with immigration lawyers, federal officials, and current and former judges, has been occurring without public attention for months. It amounts to an unannounced departure from the administration's widely publicized pronouncements that cases tied to the so-called surge of 2014 would be rushed through the immigration courts in an effort to deter more Central Americans from entering the United States illegally." -- CW

Matthew Teague of the Guardian: "The federal government is investigating prisons throughout Alabama in an inquiry that is 'possibly unprecedented'. The investigation comes after a series of strikes and riots that have revealed the state's prisons are in turmoil. 'It's a giant investigation. This is rare,' said Lisa Graybill, a staff attorney for the Southern Poverty Law Center, which is conducting an investigation of its own. Previously Graybill worked for the federal unit that will investigate Alabama, and said the closest comparison in memory was an examination of Puerto Rico's juvenile jails." CW: Another example of the federal government's spending your tax dollars wisely; i.e., another project President Trump would "end on Day One."

Why Paul Ryan, et al., Endorsed Donald Trump. Ed Kilgore: "Reportedly angry that Beltway types were yawning at his plans for 2017 on the grounds that the usual gridlock would stop anything major from happening, the House Speaker [Paul Ryan] held a presser to explain how he could cram a generation's worth of legislation into a budget reconciliation bill that cannot be filibustered.... Democrats can whine about it, but if the GOP wins the trifecta in November, they will not be able to do a thing. So a future reconciliation bill would not only cripple Obamacare and strip millions of Americans of health coverage obtained via the exchanges, but also kill the Medicaid expansion and throw millions more out of coverage.... [Donald Trump has] given us no reason whatsoever to think he'd pause before rubber-stamping a bill that kills Obamacare and gets rid of all that 'welfare' crap his supporters hate -- while giving people like himself a historic tax cut billed as a job-generator." -- CW

Ben Protess of the New York Times: "Nearly five years after Jon S. Corzine [D that sued him have struck a tentative agreement to settle the case, according to people briefed on the matter. The agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which sued Mr.Corzine in 2013 over MF Global's collapse and misuse of $1 billion in customer money, could announce a deal by the end of this year if the agency’s three commissioners approve it." CW: One more bump in the path of our quest to answer the age-old question, "Why are New Jersey governors so great?"

Sharon Otterman & Samantha Schmidt of the New York Times: "The Archdiocese of New York has established an independent compensation commission that will allow victims of sexual abuse by clergy to apply for monetary compensation from the church, even for abuse claims that are decades old, church leaders said Thursday. The commission will be headed by Kenneth R. Feinberg, who ran the federal Sept. 11 victims fund. It will have independent authority to determine eligibility for the awards and their amounts, church officials said. The archdiocese said it would borrow the money to pay for the awards, which could easily run into the millions." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

CBS News, New York: "Federal investigators said preliminary information revealed that a NJ TRANSIT train that crashed into Hoboken's terminal was going twice the speed limit at the moment of impact. The National Transportation Safety Board also said the train's engineer hit the emergency brake less than a second before the crash. The information was gleaned from data recorders aboard the train.... CBS2's Jessica Layton reports the NTSB said the train was traveling at 8 mph and sped up for about 30 seconds before hitting 21 mph. That's a complete contradiction of what engineer Thomas Gallagher told investigators over the weekend as he said he believed the train was going 10 mph." -- CW

Tim Egan: "A clear majority of Americans now favor pot legalization. The problem is the federal government, which still classifies marijuana as a Schedule 1 drug, alongside heroin and L.S.D. If pot was legalized nationwide, with a tax on every sale designated for treatment, it would free up the police to get at serious crimes, while ensuring that no addict would be denied treatment for lack of funds. As with most social reforms, it only seems impossible until it's obvious." -- CW

Way Beyond

Nicholas Casey of the New York Times: "The president of Colombia was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for pursuing a deal to end 52 years of conflict with a leftist rebel group, the longest-running war in the Americas, just five days after Colombians rejected the agreement in a shocking referendum result. The decision to give the prize to the Colombian president, Juan Manuel Santos, may revive hopes for the agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, with whom the country has been waging the last major guerrilla struggle in Latin America." -- CW

News Lede

Washington Post: "The U.S. economy added 156,000 new jobs in September, government data showed Friday morning, as companies maintained their steady pace of hiring. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.9 to 5 percent, largely because the labor force swelled with scores of new would-be workers -- a sign that Americans are growing confident enough to come in from the sideline." -- CW