The Commentariat -- October 3, 2016

Afternoon Update:

But, but...how will I pay my legal fees?? David Fahrenthold of the Washington Post. "The New York attorney general has notified Donald Trump that his charitable foundation is violating state law -- by soliciting donations without proper certification -- and ordered Trump's charity to stop its fundraising immediately, the attorney general's office said Monday. James Sheehan, head of the attorney general's charities bureau, sent the 'notice of violation' to the Donald J. Trump Foundation on Friday, according to a copy of the notice provided by the press office of state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman (D). The night before that, The Washington Post reported that Trump's charity had been soliciting donations from other people without being properly registered in New York state. According to tax records, Trump's foundation has subsisted entirely on donations from others since 2008, when Trump gave his last personal donation. This year, the Trump Foundation made its most wide-ranging request for donations yet: It set up a public website, donaldtrumpforvets.com, to gather donations that Trump said would be passed on to veterans' groups." Akhilleus: Can this poor guy EVER catch a break?! I mean, that money from veterans is already earmarked for good causes. The BEST causes. Another trip to Europe for Ivanka, another animal killing safari for Little Eric, rare collectible Nazi paraphernalia for Junior (Erwin Rommel's Afrika Corps leather overcoat). Cellulite removal for Melania (why she hasn't been seen in forever...), and now this! C'mon!

Dictators do the darndest things! Wait til Trump gets to be one. J. Weston Phippen of The Atlantic. "Russian President Vladimir Putin withdrew Monday from a post-Cold War agreement with the United States in which both countries agreed to get rid of plutonium that could be used in nuclear weapons.Putin accused the U.S. for failing to stand by its side of the agreement, and for the heightened tension between the countries over the Syrian civil war. The deal was originally signed in 2000 and renewed in 2009. Putin said he was now suspending cooperation because of 'the emergence of a threat to strategic stability and as a result of unfriendly actions by the United States of America towards the Russian Federation.'"...Akhilleus

Cowardly draft dodger Trump rips veterans suffering PTSD as not tough enough. Ema O'Connor of BuzzFeed reports: '"Donald Trump on Monday suggested to a room full of veterans that soldiers who return from war suffering from PTSD are not 'strong' and 'can't handle it.' The GOP presidential candidate's statement came during a Q&A at the Retired American Warriors PAC. Some of the questions were about the suicide epidemic in the military and criticism of the Veterans Administration (VA) for falling short on providing veterans with the mental health treatment they need. After saying there are around 22 veteran suicides a day, Trump explained to the room of veterans what PTSD was.'When people come back from war and combat and they see maybe what the people in this room have seen many times over, and you're strong and you can handle it, but a lot of people can't handle it'" Akhilleus: So the coward who supported the Vietnam war but got multiple deferrments to hide from combat for some foot thing which he can't remember now, "explains" PTSD to a room full of combat veterans, and furthermore, lets them know that some of them, according war hero Donald, just don't measure up. Trump, of course, is combat tested because he went through the Sex Wars of the seventies. Poor guy. So brave. All those unmade beds! And so wonderful of him to lecture soldiers who saw actual combat about the fact that they're wusses. The worst thing? There are plenty of combat veterans -- with and without PTSD -- who will dishonor their brothers and sisters in arms by voting for this disgraceful piece of shit.

*****

Presidential Race

LeBron James, in an op-ed to be published in the Akron Beacon Journal today: "I support Hillary because she will build on the legacy of my good friend, President Barack Obama. I believe in what President Obama has done for our country and support her commitment to continuing that legacy. Like my foundation [that helps at-risk children in Akron], Hillary has always been a champion for children and their futures. For over 40 years, she's been working to improve public schools, expand access to health care, support children's hospitals, and so much more." CW: Might help. Clinton is schedule to visit Akron today. Trump is a few points ahead of her in recent Ohio polls.

Rebecca Morin of Politico: "Sen. Bernie Sanders on Sunday said Hillary Clinton was 'absolutely correct' in leaked comments about his supporters that she made at a fundraiser earlier this year. 'What she was saying there is absolutely correct. And that is, you've got millions of young people, many of whom took out loans in order to go to college, hoping to go out and get decent-paying, good jobs,' Sanders told host George Stephanopoulos on ABC's 'This Week.' 'And you know what? They're unable to do that. And yes, they do want a political revolution. They want to transform this society.'" -- CW

Megan Twohey of the New York Times covers "bimbo eruptions." Again.

Philip Rucker of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump is scrambling to rescue his campaign after a week in which the Republican nominee's White House hopes were effectively set ablaze by his own erratic behavior and the discovery that he may not have paid federal income taxes for as many as 18 years.... Trump hopes to recover by driving a contrast, starting Monday at campaign rallies in Colorado, between how he and Bill and Hillary Clinton made their fortunes. Trump plans to argue that he built a global real estate empire and employed thousands of people, while the Clintons got rich delivering paid speeches to financial institutions and other corporate interests, according to his aides." -- CW

James Stewart of the New York Times: "... Donald J. Trump racked up losses so huge in the early 1990s that he wouldn't have had to pay federal or New York State income tax on nearly a billion dollars in income. None of this seems to have made the slightest dent in Mr. Trump's opulent lifestyle over the years. At the nadir of his personal financial crisis in the early 1990s, his lenders put him on an annual monthly 'budget' of $450,000 in personal expenses -- more than enough to sustain his lifestyle of lavish homes, private jets, country clubs and golf courses.... It's hard to imagine a starker contrast with the vast number of Americans who struggle to both pay taxes and make ends meet, or a more damning indictment of a tax code that makes that possible.... It's obvious why he has not released his tax returns:... because he hasn't paid any taxes.... Such a huge loss undermines one of his central campaign themes, which is that he is an astute and successful businessman.... All of this makes it even more imperative that Mr. Trump disclose more tax information...." -- CW ...

Ezra Klein: "... whatever is in [Trump's] returns is worse than what the New York Times is telling the world is in his returns. The Trump campaign has decided it prefers the picture the Times is painting -- a picture where Trump didn't pay taxes for 18 years -- to the picture Trump';s real records would paint." -- CW ...

... Josh Marshall of TPM: "This is a deeply damaging story, both because of apparently not paying any income tax for many years while living a life of incomparable luxury and also because it puts hard numbers to the cataclysmic business failures that pushed Trump to the brink of personal bankruptcy in the early 1990s.... In the course of not denying the gist of the original Times story, Trump's campaign also threatened legal action against the Times. Is this a legit threat? Big picture: no.... If documents fall from the sky into your lap, you are pretty much free to do anything with them you want...." CW: Marshall's remarks about the law is no doubt why Craig published her story of how she acquired the tax documents: to let Trump know he hadn't a legal leg to stand on. ...

... Susanne Craig of the New York Times details how the Times reported its blockbuster Trump taxes story, starting with the documents that landed in her NYT mailbox. -- CW ...

... Jessie Hellmann of the Hill: "Susanne Craig ... declined to say Sunday whether she has more documents she will report on.... 'Are you sitting on more documents?" Brian Stelter asked Craig during her appearance on his CNN show 'Reliable Sources.' 'We're doing a lot of reporting around this so we're going to keep going' she replied." -- CW

A Billion-Dollar Loser Man Would Be a Better President than a Woman.

Eric Bradner of CNN: "Rudy Giuliani called Donald Trump a 'genius' Sunday, in the wake of a New York Times report indicating he may have legally avoiding paying taxes for nearly two decades. 'The reality is, this is part of our tax code. The man's a genius. He knows how to operate the tax code to the benefit of the people he's serving,' the former New York City mayor told CNN's Jake Tapper on 'State of the Union.'... Tapper pressed Giuliani on whether someone who lost $916 billion in one year could reasonably argue he's a good businessman. 'That doesn't sound brilliant,' Tapper said. 'Well, yes it does, because he came back,' Giuliani said.... New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also called The New York Times' report positive for Trump because, he said, it shows his resiliency." -- CW ...

... Misogyny, Inc. Rebecca Morin: "Donald Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani on Sunday suggested that a man such as Donald Trump would be a better president 'than a woman.' 'Don't you think a man who has this kind of economic genius is a lot better for the United States than a woman, and the only thing she's ever produced is a lot of work for the FBI checking out her emails,'... [Giuliani] said on ABC's 'This Week' with George Stephanopoulos. Giuliani's statements come on the heels of a week during which the Republican nominee has been criticized by Hillary Clinton's campaign for comments he has made about women." -- CW ...

... John Cassidy of the New Yorker: "Far from demonstrating that Trump is a 'genius' or a 'highly-skilled businessman,' the 1995 returns confirm what longtime observers have known for years: earlier in his career, at least, Trump was a terrible businessman. He borrowed billions of dollars to build casinos and buy overpriced trophy properties.... His businesses lost almost all of this money, and some of the biggest ones, including the Plaza [Hotel in New York], were forced to seek bankruptcy protection. Trump personally was only saved ... by the fact that his bankers believed they would get more of their money back by throwing him a lifeline.... But his comeback was due less to any innate entrepreneurial talent than to a recovery in the property market and his ability to sell himself as a success story despite his financial problems." -- CW ...

... CW: What about Other People's Money? Donald Trump's Near-Billion-Dollar Deduction was hardly the only tax revenue loss caused by his reckless business decisions. Trump leans heavily on investors to plump up his deals. So those investors experienced big losses, too, when his lousy enterprises went belly-up. So all of those investors would have taken deductions for the money they lost in Trump's failed schemes. In addition, all the contractors & vendors whom Trump stiffed took deductions, too. There's no way to know what the total of those other losses was, but I'd bet it represented more than a billion in lost tax revenues at state & federal levels. Who made up the difference? Why, you and I.

Cathleen Decker of the Los Angeles Times: "Trump played into existing concerns among Americans that the wealthy get an unfair break. A 2015 Pew Research poll found that a big majority of Americans aren't bothered by the taxes they pay. But 6 in 10 said they were bothered 'a lot' when wealthy people didn't pay their fair share. More than that, the tax issue can contribute to negative views ... about a candidate's character.... [Trump's Pennsylvania] speech [Saturday] was a disaster. He called [Hillary] Clinton 'crazy' and incompetent. He accused her of cheating on Bill Clinton, without proof. He physically mocked her stumble when she was ill with pneumonia on Sept. 11." -- CW ...

... Chas Danner of New York reprises the craziest parts of the crazy speech Donald Trump gave Saturday night in Pennsylvania. And the crowd cheered. -- CW ...

... Steve M, Monitoring the Crazy. "I think Trump's mental state is going to matter much more [than his gaming the system to avoid paying taxes]. He's out of control. He thinks whatever makes him feel good is good for his campaign. And I really think he might be on drugs -- I know everyone says he never touches drugs or alcohol, but we heard the same thing about Prince. I think he's only going to get worse in the next few weeks. I think he's going to be like this in the two upcoming debates. It's going to be amazing to watch." -- CW

"I Was on an Airplane." "I Was Working Out." Charley Lanyon of New York: While the Trump camp seemed united in its response..., prominent Republicans are using any excuse they can think of to avoid talking about Trump's recent behavior. Marco Rubio claimed that he didn't even watch the debate because he was 'on an airplane.' While [Paul] Ryan said he missed Trump's most recent Twitter meltdown because he was working out." --CW

Jessie Hellmann: "CNN's Jake Tapper on Sunday called Donald Trump's suggestion that Hillary Clinton is cheating on her husband an 'unhinged' and 'wild' attack from the Republican presidential nominee that is 'indefensible.' While interviewing Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani on 'State of the Union,' Tapper questioned whether the attack was considered 'normal' or 'stable' behavior from a presidential nominee.... Trump's comments should be taken as sarcasm, Giuliani said." CW: That's the standard excuse the Trump campaign uses to explain his "wild" & "unhinged" attacks.

Paul Krugman castigates elected officials who have endorsed Donald Trump, cowardly Republicans who have not endorsed Hillary Clinton & leftist lunkheads who plan to cast votes for doofus candidates. -- CW

Other News & Views

New York magazine covers, in almost day-by-day detail, the presidency of Barack Obama, with links to articles that illuminate events. -- CW

** Jonathan Chait interviews President Obama, mostly about how the Republican party turned into the Party of No, beginning with John McCain's vice-presidential choice & GOP leaders' decision to block every bipartisan effort the President & other Democrats made. It "turned out to be pretty smart politics but really bad for the country...." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

Cindy Chang & Matt Hamilton of the Los Angeles Times: "Angry demonstrators poured into the streets of a South Los Angeles neighborhood Sunday night, the second night of protests over the fatal shooting of an armed 18-year-old man." -- CW

News Lede

New York Times: "Yoshinori Ohsumi, a Japanese cell biologist, was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine on Monday for his discoveries on how cells recycle their content, a process known as autophagy. Autophagy, derived from Greek, means 'self-eating.'" -- CW

The Commentariat -- October 2, 2016

Presidential Race

SNL's first cold opening of the season has its moments. It's a bit of typecasting, but Alec Baldwin has Trump down pat:

** David Barstow, et al., of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump declared a $916 million loss on his 1995 income tax returns, a tax deduction so substantial it could have allowed him to legally avoid paying any federal income taxes for up to 18 years, records obtained by The New York Times show. The 1995 tax records, never before disclosed, reveal the extraordinary tax benefits that Mr. Trump ... derived from the financial wreckage he left behind in the early 1990s through mismanagement of three Atlantic City casinos, his ill-fated foray into the airline business and his ill-timed purchase of the Plaza Hotel in Manhattan.... 'He has a vast benefit from his destruction' in the early 1990s, said one of the experts, Joel Rosenfeld.... Mr. Trump declined to comment on the documents. Instead, the campaign released a statement that neither challenged nor confirmed the $916 million loss.... A lawyer for Mr. Trump, Marc E. Kasowitz, emailed a letter to The Times arguing that publication of the records is illegal because Mr. Trump has not authorized the disclosure of any of his tax returns. Mr. Kasowitz threatened 'prompt initiation of appropriate legal action.'" ...

     ... CW: That death rattle you heard all week was coming from Trump's Ambitions. The Times just nailed the coffin shut. ...

There it is. This bombshell report reveals the colossal nature of Donald Trump's past business failures and just how long he may have avoided paying any federal income taxes whatsoever. In one year, Donald Trump lost nearly a billion dollars. A billion. He stiffed small businesses, laid off workers, and walked away from hardworking communities. And how did it work out for him? He apparently got to avoid paying taxes for nearly two decades -- while tens of millions of working families paid theirs. He calls that 'smart.' Now that the gig is up, why doesn't he go ahead and release his returns to show us all how 'smart' he really is? -- Clinton campaign response to the NYT report ...

... Scott Lemieux in LG&$: "It is overwhelmingly likely that two of the major theories for why Trump doesn't want to release his tax returns -- that they would show that he pays little or no federal taxes, that they would reveal him as a shitty businessperson who can't make businesses profitable even though he refuses to pay a lot of people -- are both correct. The story is also good by showing the massive tax advantages available to the .1%." -- CW ...

... Judd Legum of Think Progress republishes seven tweets by Donald Trump where Trump (a) complains about other people's not paying enough in taxes or (b) complains about all the taxes he pays. -- CW ...

By Driftglass.

... The Times Story Headfakes Trump. Eli Stokols of Politico: "The story, which posted Saturday night just as Trump had taken the stage for a rally in Manheim, Pa., seemed to send the candidate, already reeling from a week that started with a bad debate and continued with a stream of recriminations over his treatment of a former Miss Universe in a 3 a.m. tweetstorm, spiraling at even greater velocity into a political abyss. After taking the stage 102 minutes after the rally's scheduled 7 p.m. start time, Trump veered off-script several times, impersonating Clinton's near fall last month as she was suffering from pneumonia and asserting -- after taking credit all week for his restraint in not bringing up Bill Clinton's sexual improprieties at the debate -- that she probably isn't faithful to her husband anymore because, he said, 'Why should she be?'" CW: This is a straight news story. ...

... Ben Jacobs of the Guardian: "Speaking to a crowd of nearly 5,000 in Pennsylvania on Saturday night, Trump made some of his wildest accusations yet about his opponent and the integrity of American elections. Trump attacked his Democratic rival in starkly personal terms. He said of her 'she has bad temperament, she could actually be crazy' and went on to imply that she had been unfaithful for her husband. 'I don't even think she's loyal to Bill, if you want to know the truth. And really folks, why should she be, right,' Trump said.... [He] said bluntly on Saturday 'she should be in prison'.... Trump also warned of the specter of voter fraud without evidence, revisiting accusations he first made in August that there will be voter fraud in 'certain areas' of Pennsylvania, a statement that was a clear dog-whistle about African American areas of Philadelphia. 'Watch your polling booths, because I hear too many stories about Pennsylvania, certain areas,' the Republican nominee told the almost exclusively white crowd in Manheim. He added 'we can't lose an election because you know what I am talking about'." ...

... The Washington Post story, by Jenna Johnson, is here. ...

... CW: Once again, Trump projects his own shortcomings onto his opponent. The SNL skit got that right. Also, in his actual Pennsylvania performance, Trump again showed how very, very funny other people's disabilities are, even if the "disabilities" are extremely transitory. Watch him mock Clinton's stumbling after she became dehydrated as a result of pneumonia:

... Ben Kamisar of the Hill: "It's a personal attack Republicans have warned Trump to avoid. But while he has refused to engage on the issue, even publicly wishing her well, his tone changed Saturday night after an especially heated week." -- CW

David Cloud of the Los Angeles Times: "Five years ago, Hillary Clinton reached one of the least-noticed diplomatic agreements of her tenure as secretary of State -- a deal obligating Japan to continue paying nearly $2 billion a year to help defray the cost of U.S. troops stationed on its territory.... The payments, which began in 1978 and are considered a pillar of the post-war U.S.-Japanese alliance, cover about a third or more of the cost of keeping 49,000 U.S. troops in Japan.... Despite that history..., Donald Trump has insisted repeatedly that Japan and other U.S. allies contribute little or nothing to the United States for their own defense.... Trump's attacks on allies as freeloaders is core to his political message.... National security experts say his false claims on defense issues could undermine the network of military and diplomatic alliances constructed around the globe by U.S. presidents of both parties over the last 70 years." -- CW

Regardless of your politics, today is a day to celebrate the remarkable peaceful transitions to power that occur in this country with each presidential transition. It is something we should not take for granted. -- Rick Hasen, January 20, 2008 ...

... Rick Hasen: "Donald Trump threatens this peace by raising the prospect not only of sending his supporters, unsupervised, into polling places (likely in minority neighborhoods). This can lead to voter intimidation on election day. He has also backed off his earlier, somewhat ambiguous statement that he would support Hillary Clinton if she won.... This is already having an effect on his supporters. According to an AP-NORC poll: '... Half the people who have a favorable opinion of the Republican nominee say they have little to no confidence in the integrity of the vote count, the poll finds.' This is what happens when a candidate irresponsibly sows doubts." -- CW

Ezra Klein: "The last six days proved Donald Trump is dangerously unfit for the presidency.... The problem is that Trump is predictable and controllable.... His behavior, though unusual, is quite predictable -- a fact the Clinton campaign proved by predicting it. His actions, though beyond the control of his allies, can be controlled by his enemies -- a fact the Clinton campaign proved by controlling them.... [Regarding the Alicia Machado saga,] Hillary Clinton did everything but spraypaint 'THIS IS A TRAP' on the side of Trump Tower. And still Trump fell for it.... Six days later, he's still falling for it... So far, this has played out, within the safe space of a presidential campaign, as farce. If Trump were to win the White House, it would play out as tragedy." ...

... CW: One really, really easy way for foreign governments to trip up Trump, according to Trump himself: mess with his mic. From a New York Times story (also linked on yesterday's Commentariat): "Mr. Trump said he did not think he needed to prepare more rigorously for the next debate than he did for the first one, because any shortcomings on Monday, he argued, were because of a problem with the microphone at his lectern, which he 'spent 50 percent of my thought process' dealing with." Emphasis added. That's right: a person presenting himself as a candidate for Leader of the Free World is completely thrown off his game if there's a minor issue with a microphone."

Maureen Dowd: "For centuries, women were seen as unfit to hold public office. Ambition, power and business were the province of men. Unlike gossipy feminine chatter in the parlor, manly discourse was considered impersonal, unemotional, forthright and reasonable. Every minute of every day, Trump debunks that old 'science' when he shows that the gossipy, backbiting, scolding, mercurial, overly emotional, shrewish, menopausal one in this race is not the woman." CW: Of course Dowd has to knock Clinton, too, because, who knows, it might win her another Pulitzer.

Other News & Views

Martin Chulov of the Guardian: "An unrelenting Russian and Syrian blitz of eastern Aleppo heavily damaged one of the city's three remaining hospitals on Saturday, as Moscow warned that any American attempts to stop its assault would lead to 'frightening tectonic shifts in the Middle East'." -- CW ...

... Anne Barnard of the New York Times: "Secretary of State John Kerry was clearly exasperated, not least at his own government. Over and over again, he complained to a small group of Syrian civilians that his diplomacy had not been backed by a serious threat of military force, according to an audio recording of the meeting obtained by The New York Times.... His frustrations and dissent within the Obama administration have hardly been a secret, but in the recorded conversation, Mr. Kerry lamented being outmaneuvered by the Russians, expressed disagreement with some of Mr. Obama's policy decisions and said Congress would never agree to use force." Barnard analyzes snippets of audio included with the article. -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

A Disaster Waiting to Happen. Emma Fitzsimmons of the New York Times: "The Federal Railroad Administration began investigating safety problems at New Jersey Transit before a fatal train crash last week, a federal rail official confirmed on Saturday. Federal officials began an audit in June of New Jersey Transit, the nation's third-busiest commuter railroad, after noticing an increase in safety violations and a leadership vacuum at the top of the agency, said the official, who was briefed on the investigation but was not authorized to discuss it publicly. After completing the audit, the federal agency issued a series of violations to the railroad, the official said.... After halting most work on transportation projects this summer, Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, announced a deal with Democratic legislative leaders on Friday to raise the gas tax by 23 cents per gallon to finance the fund." -- CW

To Protect & Serve, Ctd. Cleve Wootson of the Washington Post: "'F-- this guy,' the officer says before aiming his police cruiser at the mentally ill homeless man that he and his partner had been sent out to confront. 'I'm going to hit him.' 'Okay, go for it. Go for it,' his partner responds, his voice recorded on the Sacramento police cruiser's dash cam. Twice, the man dodges their accelerating cruiser. In the second attempt, he leaps into a median, barely avoiding the vehicle. But Joseph Mann, 51, could not escape the volley of bullets that followed moments later. Mann died in the street shortly after that July 11 shooting. Mann's family has accused officers Randy Lozoya and John Tennis of escalating the situation and showing no regard for his life, even before they jumped out of the car, fired 18 bullets and shot Mann 14 times.... Police released the dash-cam video two weeks ago, after resisting for two months following the fatal confrontation." CW: Mann was black. ...

... The Sacramento Bee story, by Anita Chabria & Phillip Reese, is here. -- CW

Way Beyond

Brexit Timetable. Jessica Elgot of the Guardian: British PM "Theresa May has confirmed she will trigger article 50 before the end of March 2017, setting in motion the two-year process of leaving the European Union. The pledge by the prime minister means the UK will leave the EU by spring 2019, before the next general election, with the prime minister also announcing plans for a 'great repeal bill' to incorporate all EU regulations in UK law as soon as Brexit takes effect." -- CW

News Lede

Washington Post: "Colombian voters have rejected a peace deal with FARC rebels, a surprise outcome that risks prolonging a 52-year-old armed conflict, and in doing so tossed the peace process into chaos. By a razor margin of 50.25 to 49.75 percent, voters rejected the peace deal, a Brexit-style backlash that few were expecting. After nearly six years of negotiations, many handshakes and ceremonial signatures, Colombia's half-century war is not over. Not even close." -- CW

The Commentariat -- October 1, 2016

Afternoon Update:

Maureen Dowd: "For centuries, women were seen as unfit to hold public office. Ambition, power and business were the province of men. Unlike gossipy feminine chatter in the parlor, manly discourse was considered impersonal, unemotional, forthright and reasonable. Every minute of every day, Trump debunks that old 'science' when he shows that the gossipy, backbiting, scolding, mercurial, overly emotional, shrewish, menopausal one in this race is not the woman." CW: Of course Dowd has to knock Clinton, too, because, who knows, it might win her another Pulitzer.

*****

Presidential Race

Nate Cohn of the New York Times: "A wave of high-quality battleground state surveys released on Friday showed [Hillary Clinton] with a comfortable advantage in New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida and Michigan. The gains suggest she might lead by as much as five percentage points nationwide, up from about two to three points before last Monday's debate. It's hard to know whether the shift will last. If you've been following The Upshot's coverage of polling over the last two years, you know that we're pretty circumspect about shifts in the polls. But ... the debate is bad news for Donald J. Trump." -- CW...

... Girl Power! CW: The most amazing outcome of this week's presidential debate: it seems that for the first time in history (and prehistory), a woman saved the world. And she did it in less than two hours. The second most amazing thing is that she saved us not from some evil head of state set to deploy weapons of mass destruction, but from ourselves.

CW: The San Diego Union-Tribune editors aren't Clinton fans, but they detail evidence that Trump is "vengeful, dishonest and impulsive." "This paper has not endorsed a Democrat for president in its 148-year history. But we endorse Clinton. She's the safe choice for the U.S. and for the world, for Democrats and Republicans alike." -- CW

Gail Collins tries to answer the question, "How could anybody vote for Trump?" CW: I think she does readers a disservice by letting off the hook that substantial part of the electorate who are "deplorables." But she does also point out the cowardice of the Bush fils, especially Jeb!, who urged voters to skip the election, & thinks his father -- who reportedly has said he will vote for Clinton -- is too old to know what he's talking about. ...

... MAG's commentary today on how the election was rigged is a must-read.

John Wagner of the Washington Post: "Not to be outdone by her Republican rival, Hillary Clinton fired off a series of early-morning messages Saturday on Twitter.... 'It's 3:20am. As good a time as any to tweet about national service,' said the first one, coming at the same time that Trump started his storm of disparaging tweets about former Miss Universe Alicia Machado.... The [Clinton] tweets -- several more followed -- were the latest bid by Clinton to keep a spotlight on what she described Friday as Trump coming 'unhinged.'... Unlike Trump, who often tweets himself, many of those sent out over Clinton's official campaign account are composed by aides.... Trump's twitter account appeared to have been silent in the early-morning hours on Saturday." -- CW

Maggie Haberman & Amy Chozick of the New York Times: "Hillary Clinton's campaign is preparing for the possibility that Donald J. Trump, reeling from harsh criticisms of his performance at the first presidential debate, will unleash a personal assault related to her husband's infidelities at their next face-off in a week.... Democrats consider such tactics inevitable, particularly since Mr. Trump is now being advised by several people connected to efforts in the late 1990s to reveal Mr. Clinton's affair with the White House intern Monica Lewinsky and to the subsequent impeachment fight." -- CW ...

     ... Paul Waldman: "Maybe I'm dim, but I just can't see any way this wouldn't blow up in Trump's face. On the other hand, he's being advised by people like Rudy Giuliani and Roger Ailes, who really understand women, so maybe he'll present it in a sensitive and thoughtful way." -- CW

She's nasty, but I can be nastier than she ever can be. -- Donald Trump, on Hillary Clinton ...

By Driftglass.... ** Patrick Healy & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump unleashed a slashing new attack on Hillary Clinton over Bill Clinton's sexual indiscretions on Friday as he sought to put the Clintons' relationship at the center of his political argument against her before their next debate.... Mr. Trump ... even indicated that he was rethinking his statement at their last debate that he would 'absolutely' support her if she won in November, saying: 'We're going to have to see. We're going to see what happens. We’re going to have to see.'" CW: Just read it. Also see Irin Carmon's post, linked below. ...

... Christina Wilkie of the Huffington Post: "In the summer of 1990, at the height of his bitter divorce from his first wife, Donald Trump was carrying on a very public extramarital affair with a former beauty queen, Marla Maples. As part of the couple's divorce proceedings, Ivana Trump's lawyers asked him under oath about his dealings with other women and whether he had been faithful to his wife. Instead of answering, Donald Trump invoked his Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination. Over the course of five depositions that summer, he was asked approximately 100 questions related to marital infidelity. He pleaded the Fifth on 97 of them.... On Wednesday, Trump likened anyone who takes the Fifth to a criminal." -- CW

Ben Jacobs of the Guardian: "Donald Trump tried to distract voters from a weeklong controversy over his insults toward a former Miss Universe on Friday night by asking Barack Obama to pledge not to 'pardon Hillary Clinton and her co-conspirators for their many crimes against our country and against society itself.'... [Trump] also stirred concerns about voter fraud, returning to the unsubstantiated claims of a 'rigged election' and 'cheating' that he made for several weeks this summer. On Friday, Trump claimed voter fraud 'is a big big problem in this country' and that 'nobody has the guts to talk about it.' He then urged attendees at this rally to 'go and watch the polling places and make sure it is on the up and up', even though an exhaustive investigation in 2014 found only 31 potential incidents of in-person voter fraud in all US elections over 14 years." -- CW

WLNS: "... Donald Trump surprised a crowd ... at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum Friday afternoon. Part of the tour included a stop in the Oval Office – a replica of one of the world's most famous rooms -- that's inside the museum." -- CW ...

Donald Trump, standing in fake Oval Office, doing nothing.Hillary Clinton, sitting in real Oval Office, working.

CW: A month or two ago, we were predicting/joking here on Reality Chex that Trump would be resting comfortably in an undisclosed location before election day. I believe they're padding the room & making up the bed right now. ...

... The "3 am Call, Ctd." Michael Barbaro of the New York Times: Donald Trump's early Friday morning tirade trashing Alicia Machado "fit a pattern. It is when Mr. Trump is alone with his thoughts, and untethered from his campaign staff, that he has seemed to commit his most self-destructive acts.... Over the past few days, those instincts have been on vivid display.... Yet for close students of Mr. Trump's career and campaign, it all has a familiar ring. Over the years, he has issued a stream of needlessly cruel and seemingly off-the-cuff insults -- both on and off social media.... Such fulminations have almost always arisen from Mr. Trump's wounded pride, after he has been attacked or has suffered a setback. And they have frequently played out on Twitter, at hours of the day when much of America is asleep.... Mr. Trump, in an interview on Friday afternoon, said he remained proud of his tweets." -- CW ...

... Philip Rucker, et al., of the Washington Post: "Senate and House candidates are ducking questions about Trump and distancing themselves, while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has refused to talk about him. And few elected leaders are counseling him." -- CW ...

... Alan Rappeport of the New York Times on Donald Trump's "3 am call" Twittershitstorm aimed at Clinton supporter Alicia Machado. "Fact-checkers have found no evidence that Ms. Machado, who was featured in Playboy, appeared in a sex tape. Her critics may be referring to a risqué scene that she appeared in on a reality television show." CW: Whether or not Machado made a "sex tape" (and I don't care if she did), Trump's attacks on her are beyond disgusting. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Mark Barabak & Michael Finnegan of the Los Angeles Times: "Trump's lashing out, less than six weeks before the election, underscored how his campaign seems driven more by irritable impulse than any strategic imperative. The personal attacks seem especially unlikely to win Trump support among Latinos and women, two important voting blocs in battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, Florida and New Hampshire." -- CW ...

... Jim Fallows of the Atlantic: "... with 39 days until the election, and early voting already underway, [Trump] has guaranteed that a significant fraction of the remaining time will feature a story likely to irritate: Hispanic voters in general ('Miss Housekeeping'); people sensitive about their weight ('Miss Piggy'); women in general; men and women who don't like to hear women talked about in this way; and people wondering what kind of decisions a president will be making at 3 a.m. Quite the masterful campaign strategy." -- CW ...

... Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "While you were probably still sleeping, the 2016 Republican presidential nominee encouraged all of us to check out a 'sex tape' and offered a baseless conspiracy theory about his opponent helping the woman from the alleged sex tape get citizenship so she could take him down. And in doing so, Donald Trump did everything Hillary Clinton could have hoped he would, drawing out a now-week-long story about Alicia Machado, making things up and -- above all -- reinforcing all those very real questions about whether he has the temperament to be president." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... IOKIYAMan. That Time Donald Trump Appeared in a Soft-Porm Flick. Andrew Kaczynski & Nathaniel Meyersohn of BuzzFeed: "Donald Trump made an appearance in an explicit 2000 Playboy video. Trump's role in the porn is relatively benign and centers around him breaking a bottle of champagne on a Playboy-branded limo while several of the playmates are visiting New York City.... Other scenes from the film feature fully nude women posing in sexual positions, dancing naked, touching themselves while naked, touching each other sensually, rubbing honey on themselves, taking a bath, and dressing in costumes." Includes video. ...

     ... Evelyn Rupert of the Hill: "Clinton spokesman Nick Merrill later responded to the news. 'There's been a lot of talk about sex tapes today and in a strange turn of events, only one adult film has emerged today and its star is Donald Trump,' he told reporters." -- CW ...

... Joan Walsh of the Nation: "The notion of a man who is clinically obese fat-shaming a beautiful but curvy young woman exemplifies the double standard that reduces women to their youth and beauty, but allows men (especially wealthy ones) a lifetime of presumed virility and social prestige.... It's clear that Trump is coming undone by the notion that these two women [Machado & Clinton] -- one 'fat,' the other old, both past their sell date in the eyes of Trump and men like him -- are not hiding somewhere in shame, maybe laboring quietly in the back office of one of his golf clubs where no one can see them, but out in the public square trying to bring him down." -- CW ...

... ** "'My' Miss Universe." Irin Carmon of NBC News: Donald Trump has a long history of boasting about his sexual prowess & interests. "... for feminists, by putting Machado's character on trial, evoking her later and entirely irrelevant sexual history, Trump is engaging in classic slut-shaming. That would be holding women to a higher standard of chastity and assuming any unsanctioned display of sexuality is self-evidently damning." CW: If you're a person who doesn't quite get why people are making such a fuss about Trump's attacks on Machado, Carmon provides a good short course.

American Public: Donald Trump has a ton of ties to Russia. Could be a big security risk. Shouldn't we check that out?

GOP "Leaders": Naaah. ...

... Shane Harris of the Daily Beast: "Suspicion is mounting about Donald Trump's ties to Russian officials and business interests, as well as possible links between his campaign and the Russian hacking of U.S. political organizations. But GOP leaders have refused to support efforts by Democrats to investigate any possible Trump-Russia connections, which have been raised in news reports and closed-door intelligence briefings."...Akhilleus. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Washington Post Editors: "A President Trump could, unilaterally, change this country to its core. By remaking U.S. relations with other nations, he could fundamentally reshape the world, too.... In areas where Republican officeholders such as House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) imagine themselves acting as a brake on Mr. Trump's worst instincts, skepticism is in order. If these supposed leaders are too craven to oppose Mr. Trump as a candidate, knowing the danger he presents, why should we expect them to stand up to the bully once he was fully empowered?... It would be reckless not to consider the damage Mr. Trump might wreak." -- CW

Ken Vogel of Politico: "As Donald Trump's campaign works to drive a sharper message down the home stretch, the GOP nominee is increasingly invoking the specter of a conspiracy by big corporations, media companies and donors to elect Hillary Clinton. The warnings, coming in scripted and sometimes personal attack lines in nearly every recent speech, are largely geared towards mobilizing Trump's base of disaffected white working class voters, according to a campaign official. But the official acknowledged that the populist rhetoric also is intended to appeal to college-educated middle-class voters who tell pollsters that they believe there are 'two sets of rules -- one for insiders, another for the rest of us.' That includes former supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' unsuccessful campaign against Clinton...." -- CW

Trump Vindicated! Conspiracy Theory Is True! Aaron Blake: "On Friday afternoon, the Commission on Presidential Debates confirmed that Trump did indeed have a microphone that was at least somewhat defective. 'Regarding the first debate, there were issues regarding Donald Trump's audio that affected the sound level in the debate hall,' the commission said in an unfortunately brief one-sentence statement.... The thing about Trump's microphone claim is that he didn't just say his microphone was bad; in his trademark fashion, he took it three steps further, suggesting that it was done as part a conspiracy against him -- the rigged system and all that." The audio was fine for viewers & listeners outside the hall. ...

... CW: Probably that Clinton-Kaine sticker pasted over the receiver kind of muffled Trump's voice. But I noticed that Trumpbots in the room applauded some of Trump's remarks, so certainly they could hear him. In fairness to Trump, the slight audio problem is likely why he leaned into the mic & leaned on the podium instead of standing up straight like the broad-shouldered he-man he is. P.S. Didn't his team do a mic-check before the big show? Whose fault is that? I'll bet Clinton's campaign checked hers. ...

... Andrew Prokop of Vox: In tweets, Steven Shepard of Politico, wrote, "I was in the debate hall -- and this is true. He was difficult to hear at the very, very beginning of the debate.... His level was adjusted pretty quickly, though. And he got more animated as the debate went on, and his personal volume rose, too." CW: In short, the whole Mic Conspiracy is bull.

Francis Wilkinson of Bloomberg: Donald Trump's "disastrous first debate wasn't a result of poor staff work so much as a product of an unmanageable, gargantuan sense of insecurity. No one obsessed with every slight has genuine confidence.... Trump appears to live each second with an abiding fear of humiliation.... The paradox, of course, is that preparing for a debate would help allay Trump's fears. Except it would also expose and concentrate them. Preparation itself requires Trump's acknowledgment that he often doesn't know what he's talking about. That's too risky an admission for such a shaky, hyperkinetic ego.... Trump ... combines inexperience with a veneer of confidence so thin that he can't afford to expose his vulnerabilities even to his own staff." -- CW

Eric Trump Has a Vanity Fake Charity, Too! Brandy Zadrozny of the Daily Beast: "In promotional videos and press releases, ETF [the Eric Trump Foundation] touts a 95 to 100 percent donation ratio and implies that by benefit of being a Trump, namesake properties are handed over for charity events at little or no cost. But according to a Daily Beast analysis of annual IRS reports and New York state financial disclosures from the charity's inception in 2007 to 2014, the most recent year for which data is available, ETF spent $881,779 on its annual Golf Invitational at Trump-owned clubs, a portion of which -- $100,000 in 2013 and $88,000 in 2014 -- was reported as paid directly 'to a company of a family member of the Board of Directors.' In other words, Donald Trump himself." So, besides St. Jude's Hospital, one of ETF's biggest beneficiaries is Donald Trump. What a surprise! Also, ETF has its very own Portrait of Donald Trump scandal. Of course.

Rebecca Morin of Politico: "A major financial trade group has apologized for a speech Rudy Giuliani gave in which the former New York City mayor and Donald Trump adviser made pointed comments about Mexican immigrants. At the Commercial Finance Association's 40 Under 40 dinner at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in New York Monday, Giuliani veered off a speech that was supposed to be about leadership..., according to a New York Observer report published Friday. Attendees of the event told the Observer that Giuliani made comments about 'Mexicans in the kitchen at the Waldorf' and how Mexicans are coming to the U.S. to work illegally in kitchens.... The Observer is part of the news media company owned by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner." -- CW

New York Times Editors: "Congress seems determined to set a new standard for craven incompetence. Less than 24 hours after the Senate and House delivered a stinging rebuke to President Obama by overriding his veto of a bill that would let the Sept. 11 families sue Saudi Arabia, Republican leaders raised the possibility of a do-over.... It's rare to hear such a baldfaced admission of gross ineptitude. But instead of putting the responsibility entirely where it belongs -- on Congress -- [Senate Leader Mitch] McConnell went on absurdly to blame Mr. Obama for failing to communicate the potential consequences of the bill. In fact, Mr. Obama, the national security agencies, the Saudi government, retired diplomats, the European Union and big corporations had all bombarded Congress with warnings. Yet lawmakers ignored all of them.... The only way to fix this law is to repeal it." -- CW

Patrick Marley of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "A federal judge on Friday ordered the state [of Wisconsin] to investigate an incident in which a voter received incorrect information on getting an ID from three Division of Motor Vehicle workers, saying the state may have violated an order he issued in July. U.S. District Judge James Peterson issued Friday's ruling a day after the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and The Nation published articles about what happened to Zack Moore, who was told he couldn't get an ID or temporary voting credentials because he did not have a birth certificate.... Friday's order was unusual because Peterson issued it even though none of the parties in the lawsuit asked him to address the issue, said Rick Hasen, a University of California, Irvine professor who specializes in election law.... Moore tried to get an ID on Sept. 22, the same day Attorney General Brad Schimel filed court documents claiming DMV staff were trained to ensure people would get IDs or temporary voting credentials within six days, even if they didn't have a birth certificate." ...

... P.S. Scotty Is Still an Anti-Democracy Hardliner. A voting rights advocate recorded the incident in which the DMV sent Moore away empty-handed. But Gov. Scott Walker wondered out loud if the DMV employees' dissemination of disinformation & repeated refusals to issue Moore an ID were, you know, taken out of context. despite the fact that the recording covered Moore's entire interaction with the employees. Evidently the "context" is, "We don't want that guy anywhere near a voting booth." -- CW 

Annals of Journalism, Ctd. Tara Golshan of Vox: "There has been a tangible shift in the kind of content produced by women's magazines in recent elections. In the past decade, publications have shifted from a period of fluff election coverage in the early aughts to a platform for impactful political content, from interviews with important figures in the election to sharp policy analyses.... Recognizing the power of women's media ... can prove consequential for candidates looking to mobilize young female voters.... When you start to look [at women's magazines], you'll see some the most formative pieces of this election cycle -- major interviews and editorials...." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

Bible Banging 'Bama Bigot Booted. Boolah Boo! Kent Faulk of AL.com: "Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore has been suspended from the bench for telling probate judges to defy federal orders regarding gay marriage. It's the second time Moore has been removed from the chief justice job for defiance of federal courts - the first time in 2003 for refusing to remove a Ten Commandments monument from the state judicial building. The Alabama Court of the Judiciary (COJ) issued the order Friday suspending Moore from the bench for the remainder of his term after an unanimous vote of the nine-member court.... The court found him guilty of all six charges of violation of the canons of judicial ethics. Moore's term is to end in 2019, but because of his age, 69, he cannot run for the office again." -- Akhilleus (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Mighty Suspicious News. Nour Youssef of the New York Times: "Two men who found a travel bag containing a bomb on a Manhattan street last month -- and then walked off with the bag but left the bomb -- were not just employees of EgyptAir but in-flight security officers for the carrier, two officials at the airline said on Friday. Surveillance footage showed two men finding the bag on West 27th Street on the evening of Sept. 17, soon after a bomb exploded on West 23rd Street.... In the video, the men were seen pulling from the travel bag a white plastic bag that contained a pressure cooker connected to wires and a mobile phone. They left the white bag on the sidewalk and walked away with the travel bag. The bomb did not explode, and investigators have said that the men may have inadvertently disabled the device.... Friday's revelation is troubling for Egypt, whose aviation security procedures have come under intense scrutiny after three major air disasters in the past year." Read on. -- CW

Sarah Parvini, et al., of the Los Angeles Times: El Cajon, California, "authorities on Friday released cellphone and surveillance video showing the fatal police shooting of an unarmed black man, hoping to quell growing questions about the incident that has led to violent protests. The video provides more context about the moments before the fatal encounter on Tuesday, though officials said their investigation remains in its early stages and that evidence is still being gathered." -- CW

CW: Carnegie Deli, perhaps the most famous deli in the world -- though New Yorkers will tell you it's hardly the best in the City -- is closing its doors at the end of the year.

Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post: "Young voters in particular have been shunning the two main [candidates], with some recent polls showing that a quarter to a third plan to vote for either Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson or Green Party nominee Jill Stein.... But these third-party options are bad candidates not simply because of their impracticality, or their underdog status, or their lack of exposure, or some nonsense about a rigged political system. Johnson and Stein are, on their own merits, terrible, unserious choices. They are unfit for office." Rampell gives a few examples of why that is. -- CW ...

... CW: In general, it's not a good idea to be a one-issue voter, unless that one issue is a really big deal like "The other guy is insane." This reminds me that Hillary Clinton's vote on the Iraq war resolution was not as big a deal as you might have thought it was. For one thing, Clinton was not rattling any sabers: She expressed "deep concern ... at the very time of her vote in the fall of 2002. Given the Resolution's several prerequisites to waging war, Clinton's vote was for a Resolution that was also supposed to restrain the President's ability to wage war, and her 2002 floor speech leading up to consideration of the Resolution made this clear." For another, the Senate vote on the final version of the resolution was 77-23. Clinton's vote, in other words, didn't make any difference. It was a strategic vote, I think, and one that backfired.