The Commentariat -- Sept. 29, 2013

Stupid Party Tricks, Ctd.

Chris Moody of, appropriately enough, Yahoo News: "The House approved a spending bill early Sunday morning that would fund the government through Dec. 15, but tacked on amendments that would delay ... Obamacare for one year and repeal the medical device tax, a move that sets up a showdown with Senate Democrats and increases the probability of a government shutdown Tuesday. The Obamacare delay amendment passed 231-192, and the vote on the medical device tax, which would help cover the costs of Obamacare, was 248-174. The House also unanimously passed a bill to fund the military in the event of a shutdown." ...

... John Bresnahan & Jake Sherman of Politico: "Republicans moved onto the House floor Saturday evening to attempt to pass a bill that funds the government for three months, delays Obamacare for one and permanently repeals a tax on medical devices. The House Republican Conference appeared, for once, unified behind the measure, and was expected to vote late into Saturday night. House Republicans also intend to advance a bill to pay U.S. troops in the case of a government shutdown." ...

... Lisa Desjardins of CNN: "House Republicans have added a measure aimed at limiting contraceptive coverage to the spending bill coming up for a vote Saturday night...." CW: Hell, why not? All you federal workers or furlough can just stay home & make babies. ...

     ... Scott Lemieux in Lawyers, Guns & Money: Never waste a crisis for neglecting to punish women!.... I remember when the hot proposition among centrist pundits was a 'Grand Bargain' in which pro-choicers would agree that abortion was gross and should be made arbitrarily less accessible to poor women in exchange for greater access to contraception. In addition to the first part being a terrible idea, the crucial flaw in the plan has always been that most actually existing American anti-choicers care about regulating female sexuality, not protecting fetal life.... And don't call it a 'conscience clause.' It's a 'denial of healthcare people are legally entitled to' clause and an 'imposing one's religious beliefs on others' clause.'"

... Paul Kane, et al., of the Washington Post: "House Republican leaders proposed a new plan to the GOP rank-and-file Saturday afternoon: Make a new gesture of defiance toward President Obama's health-care law, even if it increases the chances of a government shutdown Monday night. Their plan calls for amendments to a bill designed to keep the government open for a few more weeks. The changes would include a one-year delay in the health-care law, which is set to take effect next month. The GOP plan would also repeal, permanently, a medical-device tax included in the law. The advantage of that plan -- for Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and his team -- is political. After being criticized by GOP hard-liners for not doing enough to undermine the health-care law, Boehner has taken a far more aggressive position. Instead of seeking to take away some of the money to implement Obamacare, their new plan would push back the whole thing." ...

... AP: "The White House says President Barack Obama would veto House Republican legislation that would delay much of the president's health care overhaul for a year and cancel a tax on medical devices." CW: Read the "Statement by the Press Secretary." It is really tough. We should be delighted. ...

By pandering to the Tea Party minority and trying to delay the benefits of health care reform for millions of seniors and families, House Republicans are now actively pushing for a completely unnecessary government shutdown. -- Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), chair of the Senate Budget Committee

This is a warmup act to the debt ceiling. The inability to get a clean [short-term budget] out of the House -- something I believe the Republican leadership actually wants -- should dispel any lingering doubts about who's in control over there. -- Jared Bernstein, former Obama administration economist

Mr. President, we are at one of the most dangerous points in our history right now. Every bit as dangerous as the break-up of the Union before the Civil War. -- Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), on the Senate floor Friday

... Burgess Everett & Manu Raju of Politico: "Senate Democrats will reject the House government funding bill on the eve of a shutdown, seeking to pressure House Republicans to approve their plan to keep government running past Tuesday. 'We are not discussing extensions. The only way out of this is for the House to pass our clean CR [continuing resolution],' a senior Senate Democratic aide said. 'A one-year delay will not pass the Senate and the House knows it,' added a second Democratic aide." ...

... As the Washington Post report (linked above) states, "The GOP plan would also repeal, permanently, a medical-device tax included in the law." In case you're wondering what that's all about, Lee Fang of the Nation has the skinny on that. Let's be fair to teabaggers: they aren't just foaming-at-the-mouth ideologues; sometimes they can be cute little lobbyists' puppets, too.

... This must be Ezra Klein's philosophy:

      ... BECAUSE Klein sees Boehner's plan to shut down the government as good news: "Boehner's original plan was to pass a clean bill to fund the government and then attach the one-year delay of Obamacare to the debt-ceiling bill. It was a strategy that would minimize the chances of a shutdown but maximize the chances of a default.... But that strategy failed. Boehner's members refused to wait for the debt ceiling.... Moving the one-year delay of Obamacare to the CR maximizes the chances of a shutdown but makes a default at least somewhat less likely." CW: We'll see. The obvious solution is to bring bills to the floor that can pass with Democratic & some Republican support. That may be Boehner's Hail Mary on the debt ceiling bill. ...

CW: Read this, Ezra, & let us know if you think these teabaggers can be chastened:

The whole room [said], 'Let's vote!' I said, like 9/11, 'Let's roll! -- Rep. John Culberson (R-Texas), likening himself and his fellow teabagger saboteurs to Todd Beamer & the other heroes of Flight 93, who lost their lives in Pennsylvania but prevented hijackers from crashing their plane into a Washington, D.C. building on 9/11 ...

... Molly Ball of the Atlantic: "Optimistic commentators think closure could keep the country from breaching the debt ceiling. But there's no reason a few stubborn House members can't provoke both." Remember, "Earlier this week, Boehner sought to rally his caucus around a proposal to raise the debt ceiling while enacting a laundry list of unrelated Republican agenda items. Though liberals mocked this as an absurdity, the hard-core minority of House Republicans regarded it as too much of a concession." ...

... Steve M. of NMMNB: " Why does [Boehner's] desire to cling to his speakership supersede the needs of the country? If he genuinely thinks the crazy caucus is leading the country to a cataclysm, why shouldn't he sacrifice his damn speakership and do what's patriotic, suspending the Hastert 'rule' (which is just self-imposed and isn't a rule at all) and getting a continuing resolution and debt ceiling increase passed with Democratic and sane Republican votes? What does he lose if he's deposed, besides power -- which, as is obvious by now, is not something he has much of? ... There's something pathological about the craven, desperate way that members of Congress -- people with so many options -- cling to their seats. The rest of us are regularly told that we simply can't expect to hold the same job for life -- the real world just doesn't work that way anymore. Our elected officials just don't live in our world." ...

Ted Cruz, Megalomaniac. Jack Balkin in the Atlantic: Ted Cruz "is not a terrorist or a bomb thrower. He is a Leninist. He wants to sow discord among his erstwhile allies so that he can seize control.... Cruz wants to take over the Republican Party.... That is why Cruz is attacking his fellow Republicans for being weak-kneed and insufficiently devoted to the conservative cause.... In some sense this is a repeat of the conservative movement's playbook from 1964 on: Push moderates out of the Republican Party and make it a wholly owned subsidiary of the conservative movement." ...

... Ha Ha. Naureen Khan of Al Jazeera: "During his 21+-hour floor speech, Ted Cruz cited 22-year-old Rutgers student John Connelly as an example of someone who has struggled because of President Obama's policies. But Connelly "describes his politics as 'left of most of the people in the Democratic Party on social and economic issues.' He thinks a single-payer system would be preferable to the Affordable Care Act but appreciates the provisions of the law that have helped him out already. His father's union-provided health insurance still covers him, thanks to the provision of the ACA that allows children to stay on their parents' plan until the age of 26.... 'Maybe []Cruz should've spent less time reading Dr. Seuss and more time looking into the policies that he's talking about,. Connelly said." Thanks to Barbarossa for the link.

Thomas Bishop of Media Matters: "Fox News' misleading attacks on President Obama's health care law reached new heights in the week preceding the opening of insurance exchanges under the Affordable Care Act Fox figures also pressured Republican politicians to defund or repeal the law, even at the expense of shutting down the federal government." Thanks to Jeanne B. for the link.

"Use It or Lose It." David Fahrenthold of the Washington Post: "All week, while Congress fought over next year's budget, federal workers were immersed in a separate frantic drama. They were trying to spend the rest of this year's budget before it is too late. The reason for their haste is a system set up by Congress that ... requires agencies to spend all their allotted funds by Sept. 30."

James Risen of the New York Times & Laura Poitras: " Since 2010, the National Security Agency has been exploiting its huge collections of data to create sophisticated graphs of some Americans' social connections that can identify their associates, their locations at certain times, their traveling companions and other personal information, according to newly disclosed documents and interviews with officials. The spy agency began allowing the analysis of phone call and e-mail logs in November 2010 to examine Americans' networks of associations for foreign intelligence purposes after N.S.A. officials lifted restrictions on the practice, according to documents provided by Edward J. Snowden...." ...

... Charlie Savage of the New York Times: "The Senate Intelligence Committee appears to be moving toward swift passage of a bill that would 'change but preserve' the once-secret National Security Agency program that is keeping logs of every American's phone calls, Senator Dianne Feinstein, the California Democrat who leads the panel, said Thursday." ...

... Maureen Dowd on the (false) testimony of "Emperor" Keith Alexander, the NSA chief.

Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times: "District court judges are not generally known as flamethrowers, but some seem to be losing patience with the banks.... Judges who take a more aggressive stance against the banks in such cases are doing what they can to hold these institutions accountable. It may not seem like a lot, but it is progress."

Michael Luo & Mike McIntire of the New York Times: "Children shot accidentally -- usually by other children -- are collateral casualties of the accessibility of guns in America, their deaths all the more devastating for being eminently preventable.... And there are far more of these innocent victims than official records show." The NRA's "lobbying arm recently posted on its Web site a claim that adult criminals who mishandle firearms -- as opposed to law-abiding gun owners -- are responsible for most fatal accidents involving children. But The Times's review found that a vast majority of cases revolved around children's access to firearms, with the shooting either self-inflicted or done by another child."

Andrew Cohen of the Atlantic: "What a sham trial in Louisiana says about our criminal justice system."

News Ledes

New York Times: Marcella "Hazan, the chain-smoking, determined former biology scholar who reluctantly moved to America and went on to teach a nation to cook Italian food, died Sunday at her home in Longboat Key, Fla. She was 89."

New York Times: "Dozens of gunmen attacked an agricultural college in northeastern Nigeria late Saturday and early Sunday, killing more than 40 students, local officials said. The attackers were thought to belong to the extremist group Boko Haram."

AP: "Former Premier Silvio Berlusconi appeared to backpedal on Sunday in his strategy aimed at collapsing Italy's fragile coalition government and triggering early elections, after some key supporters chafed at his order to quit the Cabinet. Berlusconi had demanded those resignations in a show of solidarity ahead of a Senate vote to strip him of his seat because of his tax-fraud conviction and prison sentence."

AFP: "Iran is willing to discuss limits in the level to which it enriches uranium but will never suspend the process altogether, the deputy foreign minister said in comments reported Sunday." ...

... ABC News: "In an exclusive interview this morning on 'This Week,' Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif condemned the Holocaust as a 'heinous crime' and a 'genocide,' dismissing as a poor translation the appearance of the word 'myth' about the Holocaust on the Iranian Supreme Leader's English website."

New York Times: Vice Adm. Timothy M. Giardina, "who is second in command at the United States Strategic Command, which oversees nuclear war-fighting forces for the military, has been suspended amid an investigation into his possible involvement in illegal gambling, officials said on Saturday." Washington Post story here, via Barbarossa.

The Plot Thickens --

-- Or -- How Twitter Saved the World

In December or January, I wrote that the only way House Speaker John Boehner would ever get meaningful legislation through the House was to cooperate with House Democrats. He knows that & has resorted to the tactic some five times, most significantly in the "fiscal cliff" hoohah & in appropriating funds for Hurricane Sandy relief. A majority of Republicans opposed these bills, & they passed when most Democrats and only 30 or 40 Republicans voted for them. If we are to avoid a government shutdown next week and a federal debt default a few weeks hence, Boehner will have to rely on Democrats again.

As several contributors have pointed out here, defying his Tea Party caucus will cost Boehner his job.

But maybe not. This humorous tweet from Alex Seitz-Wald of Salon

inspired me to suggest, also in jest, that maybe Democrats could realize Demand 7. If Boehner riled his Chaos Caucus, they could try to unseat him, a move that would split House Republicans, leaving Democrats with enough votes to put Pelosi on top. However, if Wikipedia is trustworthy, the House has almost always chosen its speaker by majority vote, only once -- in the 19th century -- resorting to accepting a candidate who attained only a plurality.

But there is a more plausible scenario along these same lines. It goes like this. We know Boehner is trying to figure out how to simultaneously (a) keep his job & (b) avoid national and international catastrophe.

Besides actually giving a damn about the country, he is infuriated not just by teabagger actions but also by teabagger attitude. Tweets like this push him over the edge.

Boehner meets with Nancy Pelosi, & the two of them agree on an acceptable continuing resolution and on a "clean" debt ceiling bill. The bills pass the House with Democrats & a few dozen Republicans voting in favor, a la the "fiscal cliff" votes.

As a result, the Teabaggers revolt & attempt to oust Boehner. Quite a few Republicans will support Boehner, but not enough to give him a majority -- unless he can find some votes someplace else.

Hmm. Boehner goes back to Pelosi (it's possible they had this discussion in their first hypothetical meeting), and the two forge an agreement. Pelosi guarantees Boehner enough Democratic votes to beat back the Tea Party insurgency. Boehner agrees to ditch the "Hastert Rule" -- that is, the "rule" that he will only bring legislation to the floor that a majority of Republicans support. He further agrees to specifics on some pending legislation: like bringing up an omnibus immigration bill that includes a path to citizenship (see Seitz-Wald). A budget resolution that ends sequestration. Oh, SNAP. A farm bill that restores/increases the food stamps program. (You forgot that one, Alex.) Maybe replace a few of the more militant committee heads (buh-bye, Darrell Issa).

The Boehner-Pelosi agreement remains secret except to a few top dogs. The clueless teabaggers mount their no-confidence coup. At the last minute, Pelosi urges the Democratic caucus to vote for Boehner. Most Democrats & some Republicans vote for Boehner. He wins the day. The teabaggers are not only blindsided; this new House dynamic completely neutralizes them. They have no power.

Yes, this scenario also will leave Boehner as a very weak speaker, dependent upon the other party for passage of every bill. It assumes Boehner would rather be a weak speaker than an ex-speaker. In order to get enough Republicans to vote for the bills that come up under this scenario, the bills will necessarily be more conservative than we would like. But some progress is better than no progress at all.

Mind you, I'm not predicting this is what will happen. But you can bet such a series of events has crossed Boehner's mind. And Pelosi's. It is not entirely implausible. And there will by joy in all the land (except maybe in some pockets of "real America").

The Commentariat -- Sept. 28, 2013

Another Entry into the No-Fly Zone. John Brenahan & Jake Sherman of Politico: "With a government shutdown less than three days away, the House is charging toward delaying Obamacare for one year and repealing the medical device tax in exchange for funding the government, several sources tell Politico." CW: were this ploy to succeed -- which it won't -- people will die because of it. ...

... "In this week's address, President Obama says that on October 1, a big part of the Affordable Care Act will go live and give uninsured Americans the chance to buy the same quality, affordable health care as everyone else. It is also the day when some Republicans in Congress might shut down the government just because they don't like the law. The President urged Congress to both pass a budget by Monday and raise the nation's debt ceiling so that we can keep growing the economy." -- White House

... Paul Kane, et al., of the Washington Post: "With Washington barreling toward a government shutdown, a deadlocked Congress entered the final weekend of the fiscal year with no clear ideas of how to avoid furloughs for more than 800,000 federal workers. Millions more could be left without paychecks. The Senate on Friday approved a stopgap government funding bill and promptly departed, leaving all of the pressure to find a solution on House Republican leaders. [CW: as if it's not their fault.] Boehner's [CW: so-called] leadership team offered no public comment and remained out of sight most of Friday, hunkering down for another weekend on the brink. For Boehner, this is the latest in a series of unstable moments that have become the hallmark of his three-year run as speaker." ...

... Ed O'Keefe, et al., of the Washington Post: "President Obama, in remarks at the White House, accused Republicans of 'political grandstanding' and said the GOP-controlled House now has the fate of a potential government shutdown in its hands. In the remarks, Obama addressed House Republicans directly. 'I encourage you to think about who you're hurting,' Obama said, noting that their own staff would be without paychecks in a shutdown.'" Obama also said he spoke to Iranian President Rouhani Friday (AP news story linked below):

... Jonathan Weisman, et al., of the New York Times: "The Senate on Friday overwhelmingly approved stopgap spending legislation to keep the federal government open without gutting President Obama's health care law, setting up a weekend showdown with the House that will decide whether much of the government shuts down at midnight Monday. The 54-to-44 vote for final passage followed a more critical moment when the Senate, in a bipartisan rebuke to Republican hard-liners, cut off debate on the legislation. The 79-to-19 vote included the top Republican leadership and easily exceeded the 60-vote threshold to break a filibuster." ...

... Seung Min Kim of Politico: "The split vote on cloture within the Senate Republican Conference ... laid bare the GOP divide that has persisted in recent weeks in the battle over government funding and against the president's health care law.... The nineteen Republican senators who opposed cutting off debate included [Ted] Cruz, Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo; Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi; Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer; Iowa's Chuck Grassley; Nevada's Dean Heller; Oklahoma's Jim Inhofe; Utah's Mike Lee; Kansas's Jerry Moran; Kentucky's Rand Paul; Ohio's Rob Portman; Idaho's Jim Risch; Kansas's Pat Roberts; Florida's Marco Rubio; South Carolina's Tim Scott; Alabama's Jeff Sessions and Richard Shelby; Pennsylvania's Pat Toomey; and Louisiana's David Vitter." ...

... Rat Tiptoes off Sinking Ship. Igor Volsky of Think Progress: "Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO), a staunch opponent of the Affordable Care Act, is encouraging his uninsured constituents to take advantage of the law and sign-up for health care coverage when the new marketplaces open next Tuesday, putting himself at odds with lawmakers in his own party.... State Republican lawmakers in Missouri are actively trying to undermine reform and have explicitly refused to oversee Obamacare's most basic and popular protections, such as barring insurers from denying coverage to Americans with pre-existing medical conditions and discriminating against women on the basis of gender. Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder has even actively discouraged Missourians from signing up for insurance. Fourteen percent of Missourians are currently uninsured." Thanks to James S. for the lead. ...

... Aaron Blake & Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post: "Former Vice President Al Gore on Friday called the GOP's strategy to defund Obamacare 'political terrorism.' Speaking at the Brookings Institution, Gore called it a 'despicable and dishonorable threat to the United States of America' for Republicans to risk shutting down the government if they don't get what they want." ...

... Robert Costa of the National Review: "On a Thursday conference call, a group of House conservatives consulted with Senator Ted Cruz of Texas about how to respond to the leadership's fiscal strategy. Sources who were on the call say Cruz strongly advised them to oppose it, and hours later, Speaker John Boehner's plan fizzled. It's the latest example of Cruz leading the House's right flank." ...

... Tailgunner Ted. Ed Kilgore: "This is some genuine intrigue involving a massive breach of congressional etiquette by Cruz. And it's also just weird: House and Senate members rarely deal with each other directly. They inhabit different realms that do not usually intersect. But any way you slice it, it looks bad for the House leadership.... Such intraparty outlaw behavior is yet another thing he has in common with his look-alike bullyboy predecessor from back in the day, Joe McCarthy." ...

... Paul Waldman of the American Prospect: "... what you don't see too much of is real cloak-and-dagger, House of Cards-style plotting, with clandestine meetings, vicious backstabbing, and high-risk conspiracies." This is it. "The rest of us look at this situation and see a bunch of maniacs hurtling the country toward disaster. But they're having a blast!" as a series of tweets from Costa reveals. Here's one: "Anti-Boehner gang in House absolutely loving this fight, tho. Secret mtgs with Cruz, plotting with each other, CR as a chess game" ...

... CW: There is not much that's more annoying than someone who not only purposely puts you in a bind, but also smirks about it. Add to that, these teabaggers are ready to put the nation -- nay, the world -- in a helluva bind -- because it's fun. So for Boehner, this is not just personal. These teabaggers have given him every reason to neuter them. I think he will. If he was wavering, those tweets from Costa could cement his resolve. ...

... Gail Collins: "... on Friday the House members did show they could pass legislation in a purposeful, bipartisan fashion. They approved a bill naming a building in Virginia after a deceased federal worker." ...

... Their Fearless Leader. Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling: "PPP's newest national poll finds Ted Cruz is now the top choice of Republican primary voters to be their candidate for President in 2016. He leads the way with 20% to 17% for Rand Paul, 14% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and Scott Walker." ...

... Digby: " The problem isn't that the Tea party is crazy. It's that Republicans are crazy. Only 18% of them can be described a moderate." ...

... Even Obama's Twitter Account Is Suspect. Tom Kludt of TPM: "Former White House spokesman Ari Fleischer backed off on his suggestion earlier this week that Twitter allows President Barack Obama to [link fixed] use more than 140 characters in his tweets, but some Republican primary voters evidently still have doubts." ...

... CW: I guess this means there isn't much chance they'll believe this. Darryl Fears of the Washington Post: "A panel of the world’s leading climate scientists strongly asserted Friday that 'it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause' of global warming since 1950 and warned of more rapid ice melt and rising seas if governments do not aggressively act to reduce the pace of greenhouse gas emissions. At a meeting in Stockholm, where the panel released its latest assessment of climate change, the scientists for the first time established a budget for the amount of carbon that can be released into the atmosphere. Even if that target is reached, carbon emissions will have harmful impact on the environment well into the future." Personally, I think global warming is god's plan to boost Canadian tourism.

AP: "President Barack Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke by telephone Friday, the first conversation between American and Iranian presidents in more than 30 years. The exchange could reflect a major step in resolving global concerns over Iran's nuclear program. Obama told reporters at the White House that he had a constructive conversation with the Iranian leader." ...

... Thomas Erdbrink of the New York Times: "In Iran, many had been disappointed when Mr. Rouhani failed to show up Tuesday at a United Nations luncheon, where he had been expected to shake hands with Mr. Obama. But the Friday call as Mr. Rouhani was heading to the airport to fly home to Iran, after four days of frenetic diplomacy in the United States, was, [to Iranians,] almost as good as a handshake."

Political scientist David Karol, writing in the Monkey Cage, explains why it's "Democratic Care," not ObamaCare. If Obama wanted to be the Democratic presidential nominee, he had no choice but to embrace healthcare reform: "While not every twist and turn in the ACA's tortured path was fated, Obama's embrace of health care reform can be explained simply; it is the longstanding policy of the Democratic Party he sought to lead. Democratic constituencies have long wanted health care reform and Democratic presidents have fought for it, with varying degrees of commitment and success, since the time of Harry Truman." CW: Karol doesn't refute the Politico article I linked a few days ago (tho he calls the Politico piece "misleading"), but he adds dimension.

Dina Elboghdady of the Washington Post: "The Federal Housing Administration plans to tap $1.7 billion in taxpayer money at the end of the month to cover its losses -- a first for an agency that has been self-sustaining since its creation in 1934. The FHA has played a pivotal role in propping up the housing market by backing low-down-payment loans for borrowers after the mortgage market unraveled and other lending sources dried up. It accounts for nearly 20 percent of all home-purchase mortgages. The agency does not make loans; it insures lenders against losses should loans go bad. It has always used the fees it charges borrowers to cover losses."

Local News

Kate Zernike & Mark Santora of the New York Times: "A New Jersey judge ruled Friday that the state must allow same-sex couples to marry, since failing to do so would deprive them of rights that are now guaranteed by the federal government. The decision will most likely be challenged by Gov. Chris Christie, who has publicly opposed gay marriage. The judge, Mary C. Jacobson of State Superior Court, ruled that under its Constitution, New Jersey must allow marriage in light of the United States Supreme Court's decision in June striking down the federal Defense of Marriage Act." The ruling is here. The Star-Ledger story, by Salvador Rizzo, is here.