The Commentariat -- November 25, 2017
Afternoon Update:
Renae Merle of the Washington Post: "The White House appeared headed to a showdown Monday on who will be the next leader of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a dispute that is likely to land in court.... On Saturday, senior administration officials said the White House's position was supported by the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel. The office is preparing to publish a written opinion supporting the appointment soon, but has already confirmed verbally and through email that it complies with the law, the officials said.... But the OLC letter is not likely to end the tug-of-war over the leadership of [the] agency.... Democrats and consumer advocates say [Mick] Mulvaney's appointment is illegal and are calling on the Trump administration to allow English to serve until a permanent replacement is confirmed by the Senate."
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Turkey to Turkey -- Trump Gives Surprise Gift to Erdogan. Carol Morello & Erin Cunningham of the Washington Post: "The Trump administration is preparing to stop supplying weapons to ethnic Kurdish fighters in Syria, the White House acknowledged Friday, a move reflecting renewed focus on furthering a political settlement to the civil war there and countering Iranian influence now that the Islamic State caliphate is largely vanquished. Word of the policy change long sought by neighboring Turkey came Friday, not from Washington but from Ankara. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters at a news conference that President Trump had pledged to stop arming the fighters, known as the YPG, during a phone call between Trump and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.... Initially, the administration's national security team appeared surprised by the Turks' announcement and uncertain what to say about it. The State Department referred questions to the White House, and hours passed with no confirmation from the National Security Council. In late afternoon, the White House confirmed the weapons cutoff would happen, though it provided no details on timing." ...
... Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: And what did Trump get out of this Thanksgiving Turkey? Now that's something Trump really does not want anyone to know, but you can bet "U.S. interests" don't figure in. Under normal circumstances, the NSC & State Department would not be "surprised" by a major shift in U.S. Middle East policy.
Time Magazine called to say that I was PROBABLY going to be named 'Man (Person) of the Year,' like last year, but I would have to agree to an interview and a major photo shoot. I said probably is no good and took a pass. Thanks anyway! -- Donald Trump, Friday afternoon tweet
The President is incorrect about how we choose Person of the Year. TIME does not comment on our choice until publication, which is December 6. -- Time, less than 3 hours later, tweet
My Time cover is just as real as the one Trump had on display for years in several of his golf resorts. -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie
Ryan Koronoski of ThinkProgress: "On Friday morning, following a terrifying attack at a mosque in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula that left an estimated 235 people dead..., Donald Trump reacted to the news by condemning the attackers and 'terrorism' in general on Twitter.... It was a straightforward response with no obvious policy under- or overreactions. However, about four hours later -- after golfing at his resort in Florida with Tiger Woods -- Trump returned to form.... 'Will be calling the President of Egypt in a short while to discuss the tragic terrorist attack, with so much loss of life,' he wrote. 'We have to get TOUGHER AND SMARTER than ever before, and we will. Need the WALL, need the BAN! God bless the people of Egypt.'... Experts say that implementing the so-called 'Muslim ban' is exactly what ISIS wants -- a recruitment tool and a reason to argue for the escalation of hostilities before their target audiences."
Victoria Guida of Politico: "Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray on Friday appointed the agency's chief of staff, Leandra English, as the CFPB's deputy director, establishing her as his successor when he steps down at the end of the day. The move appears designed to thwart any move by ... Donald Trump to name another temporary official to head the controversial agency. Trump has been reported to be considering White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney for the role.... The 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which created the CFPB, explicitly says the consumer bureau's deputy director shall "serve as acting Director in the absence or unavailability of the Director." ...
... Update. Gillian White of the Atlantic: "... after the Georgetown law professor Adam Levitin pointed out that the version of Dodd-Frank passed by the House had explicitly applied the Vacancies Act to the CFPB, and that the conference committee had stripped out that language, many legal scholars told The Intercept's David Dayen that they believed that control of the agency would pass to the deputy director.... By formally naming a deputy director on Friday, [Richard Cordray] strengthened the CFPB's hand in any ensuing legal battle for control of the agency. The Trump administration must now decide whether to simply allow [Leandra] English to become acting director, running the agency while it attempts to get a new nominee for director confirmed by the Senate, or whether it wishes to name its own acting director, a move that offer immediate control but would almost certainly wind up being challenged in court." ...
... ** UPDATE. Tara Bernard of the New York Times: "President Trump on Friday named his budget director as the acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, moving to take control of the agency hours after its departing leader had taken steps to install his own choice for acting chief. By the end of the night, an agency born of the financial meltdown -- and one Republicans have tried to kill from the start -- had dueling directors, and there was little sense of who actually would be in charge Monday morning. The bureaucratic standoff began Friday afternoon when Richard Cordray, the Obama-appointed leader of the bureau, abruptly announced he would leave the job at the close of business, a week earlier than anticipated. He followed up with a letter naming his chief of staff, Leandra English, as the agency's deputy director.... Under the law, he said, that appointment would make the new deputy director the agency's acting director. The move was seen as an effort to delay Mr. Trump from appointing his own director, whose confirmation could take months. The White House retaliated, saying that the budget director, Mick Mulvaney, who once characterized the consumer protection bureau as a 'sad, sick joke,' would be running the agency. He would also keep his current job as head of the Office of Management and Budget.... And what happens next is not entirely clear."
A Fine-Tuned Machine. Michelle Kosinski of CNN: "Days ahead of what should be a major moment for Ivanka Trump on the world stage, CNN has learned Secretary of State Rex Tillerson isn't sending a high-level delegation [to India] to support her [at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit] amid reports of tensions between Tillerson and the White House.... 'They (Tillerson and his staff) won't send someone senior because they don't want to bolster Ivanka. It's now another rift between the White House and State at a time when Rex Tillerson doesn't need any more problems with the President,' [a senior State Department] official [said].... 'Rex doesn't like the fact that he's supposed to be our nation's top diplomat, and Jared and now Ivanka have stepped all over Rex Tillerson for a long time," [a source closed to the White house ...] said.... The State Department puts on the large yearly event, which Secretary of State John Kerry and even President Obama attended multiple times." ...
... "A Disaster Waiting to Happen." Gardiner Harris of the New York Times: "By last spring..., the guarded optimism that greeted [Rex Tillerson's] arrival [at the State Department] had given way to concern among diplomats about his aloofness and lack of communication. By the summer, the secretary's focus on efficiency and reorganization over policy provoked off-the-record anger. Now the estrangement is in the open, as diplomats going out the door make their feelings known and members of Congress raise questions about the impact of their leaving.... Mr. Tillerson has frozen most hiring and recently offered a $25,000 buyout in hopes of pushing nearly 2,000 career diplomats and civil servants to leave by October 2018. His small cadre of aides have fired some diplomats and gotten others to resign by refusing them the assignments they wanted or taking away their duties altogether. Among those fired or sidelined were most of the top African-American and Latino diplomats...."
Matt Zapotosky & Sari Horwitz of the Washington Post: "From his crackdown on illegal immigration to his reversal of Obama administration policies on criminal justice and policing, [AG Jeff] Sessions is methodically reshaping the Justice Department to reflect his nationalist ideology and hard-line views -- moves drawing comparatively less public scrutiny than the ongoing investigations into whether the Trump campaign coordinated with the Kremlin. Sessions has implemented a new charging and sentencing policy that calls for prosecutors to pursue the most serious charges possible, even if that might mean minority defendants face stiff, mandatory minimum penalties. He has defended the president's travel ban and tried to strip funding from cities with policies he considers too friendly toward undocumented immigrants. Sessions has even adjusted the department's legal stances in cases involving voting rights and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender issues in a way that advocates warn might disenfranchise poor minorities and give certain religious people a license to discriminate."
Conway & Trump Greenlight Sex Abusers. Dana Milbank: "Washington could do something to give ... low-skill, low-wage women more power and workplace protections [from sexual harassers]. Instead, the White House, and in particular presidential counselor Kellyanne Conway, are sending the opposite message about women and those who prey on them.... President Trump excuses his support for the accused child molester by saying [Roy] Moore 'totally denies it,' a standard under which the late Charles Manson was also innocent. This is not a he-said/she-said case. It's a he-said/she-said-she-said-she-said-she-said-she-said-she-said-she-said-and-others-corroboratecase. As a practical matter, there's little doubt Moore sexually exploited girls, yet the message from the White House is that such a man belongs in high office. That's a green light to millions of men who harass and abuse women -- and a caution to millions of women that they shouldn't complain about it."
Barbara McQuade in the Daily Beast: "If, in fact, [Michael] Flynn is cooperating with the special counsel], this development could be very significant for [Robert] Mueller's investigation. As a member of the foreign policy team on Trump's presidential campaign, he likely has information about any contacts with the Russian government by members of the campaign. Flynn may be able to provide the crucial links between all of the disparate pieces of evidence that have come to light to date -- the June 2016 meeting with Russians to obtain disparaging information about Hillary Clinton, the overtures for meetings with George Papadopoulos, the travels of Carter Page." ...
... Martin Longman in the Washington Monthly: "Michael Flynn has so much criminal exposure it's almost ridiculous, including things as potentially serious as conspiracy to kidnap, perjury, and obstruction of justice. He has to worry about those charges, plus a long list of problems with disclosure forms involving his lobbying work, background checks, and compliance with military rules and regulations. And he's reportedly worried that his son will wind up with a lengthy jail term, as well. To significantly reduce all that exposure, he's going to have to tell a pretty compelling story to Robert Mueller's prosecutors. It's true that plea negotiations could still break down, but they've almost certainly begun. The chances are now very high that Flynn will be testifying against the president of the United States and that his testimony will be the basis for a criminal referral of some sort to Congress from the office of the special counsel. This also has to be of concern to Paul Manafort and Rick Gates, because they're missing the chance to be the first cooperating witnesses, and are therefore losing the opportunity to reduce the amount of time they'll be spending in prison." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Paul Waldman: "... if Flynn is cooperating, it can only be because he has information to offer Mueller on someone more important than himself.... And who is more important than Flynn?... Among those implicated in this whole affair, that group may consist of Jared Kushner and Trump, and that's about it. Which means we may be getting closer to answering a question I've been asking for a long time: Why was President Trump so intensely focused on protecting Michael Flynn?... Flynn was supposedly fired because he lied to Vice President Pence about his contacts with Russian officials during the campaign and the transition.... This was always an odd explanation for the firing. Even more odd was the fact that immediately, President Trump began telling anyone who would listen what a great guy Michael Flynn is and how unfair the whole mess was to him." Emphasis added. ...
... digby: "I will speculate wildly here that I would be wondering if Trump didn't approve that 15 million dollar kidnapping plot.... This plot would easily be one that Trump and his crazy pal Flynn would think was very, very clever. Flynn had a vendetta against the Intelligence Community and Trump is a fucking moron. That's exactly the kind of thing they'd believe was a very excellent way to conduct foreign policy." ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: I thought the same thing when I read that Trump was calling Erdogan yesterday to "fix the mess in the Middle East" left to him by his predecessors. What he more likely was interested in fixing was the Turkish kidnapping caper, which would have been initiated by some of Erdogan's henchmen. ...
... AND since we're speculating, I'll speculate that the entire Trump presidency is an elaborate Putin plot. That is, Putin might have backed Trump from the git-go, even to the point of -- perhaps indirectly -- getting him to run in the first place. For one thing, I'll speculate that the Kremlin really does have the goods on Trump in some form or other; & for a second, Russia could scarcely find anyone who met the Constitutional requirements for U.S. president & who would more destabilize the country.
Annals of "Journalism," Ha Ha Ha. If you missed the Vox video on Sean Hannity, which safari posted yesterday, go back & take a look at it. It's both funny & appalling or, you know ... Sad!
Adam Gabbatt of the Guardian: "Activists will launch a last-ditch effort to prevent Donald Trump's tax bill from passing in the Senate on Monday, with scores of groups planning to lay siege to politicians' offices. Indivisible, the progressive group that aims to use Tea Party tactics to thwart the Republicans, has called for a day of action to stop the tax legislation, which the Senate is expected to vote on in the week after Thanksgiving. According to some estimates, the GOP bill would actually raise taxes on middle-class workers over the next decade, and leave 13 million more people without insurance. A different tax bill passed the House on 16 November.... Indivisible, which is made up of more than 6,000 groups nationwide, has called for people to target seven senators in particular who it believes could vote against the bill: John McCain, Jeff Flake, Lisa Murkowsi, Susan Collins, Rob Portman, Shelley Moore Capito and Bob Corker." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: You can check this Indivisible page to see where some of the sponsored protests are. There's more info here. ...
... Matt Yglesias of Vox: "... according to a pair of new analyses by the Penn-Wharton Budget Project..., the Senate Republicans' tax bill would increase federal debt by more than advertised, and increased debt accumulation would counteract much -- or potentially all -- of the positive growth impact of tax cuts. The result will likely be lower incomes for the bottom half of the income distribution even before considering the negative impact of inevitable spending cuts to offset the surprisingly low federal tax intake." The lead analyst is veteran Republican budget & tax analyst Ken Smetters. "... the Senate GOP leadership wrote a bill that's designed to game the system with phase-ins and phase-outs, and Penn-Wharton thinks taxpayers will respond in kind -- gaming the gamed system, reducing federal revenue, and increasing the long-term deficit."
Jacques Billeaud of the AP: "A federal lawsuit set to go to trial next month marks the latest legal action brought against former Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio over allegations that he pursued a trumped-up criminal case to get publicity and embarrass ... U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake. One of Flake's sons filed a malicious-prosecution lawsuit, saying Arpaio pursued felony animal cruelty charges against him and his then-wife in a bid to do political damage to the senator and gain publicity.... The lawsuit, which is scheduled for trial on Dec. 5, alleges that Arpaio was intent on linking the Flakes to the deaths [of 21 dogs], going so far as to conduct surveillance on the senator's home.... Lawyers for [the Senator's son] Austin Flake and his then-wife have said the senator disagreed with Arpaio over immigration and was critical of the movement questioning the authenticity of then-President Barack Obama's birth certificate. In a deposition, Arpaio didn't accept responsibility for bringing the charges against the couple and was unable to cite any evidence to support the allegations. But he still expressed confidence in his investigators."
Beyond the Beltway
In the Spirit of the Season. Carol Robinson of Al.com: "Shoppers getting an early start on Black Friday deals had their Thanksgiving trek to the Riverchase Galleria [in Hoover, a suburb of Birmingham, Alabama.] cut short when fights broke out in the mall." Mrs. McC: But no reported sightings of Roy Moore cruising for teenaged girls.
Denise Hollinshed of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: "The St. Louis Galleria closed for about a half hour Friday afternoon after seven people were arrested during a Black Friday protest. Among those arrested was state Rep. Bruce Franks Jr. The protesters arrived shortly after 2 p.m. at the shopping mall. They walked through chanting, 'Shut it down.' Some stores closed their doors and pulled down their security gates, in some cases trapping customers inside. A large police presence could be seen around the area. When police moved in to arrest one person, Franks questioned the officers and he was thrown to the floor and his hands tied behind back.... The protest was part of an economic boycott effort announced in early November by African-American clergy and activists over issues from police treatment of blacks to bank loan practices to infrastructure neglect in the northern part of St. Louis."
Way Beyond
Declan Walsh of the New York Times: "Islamist militants detonated explosives and sprayed gunfire at a crowded Sufi mosque near Egypt's Sinai coast on Friday, killing at least 235 people and wounding 109 more, in one of the deadliest attacks on civilians in the country's modern history." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)