The Commentariat -- February 2, 2016
Afternoon Update:
Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: "Presidential candidates flew through the night to hit the New Hampshire campaign trail running on Tuesday morning, eager to capitalize on a race that has been reordered by surprising finishes in the Iowa caucuses."
Patrick Healy of the New York Times: "Hillary Clinton was declared the winner of the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday after final vote counts showed her narrowly beating Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, according to The Associated Press and other news organizations." ...
... Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post has a longish piece on how Clinton nearly got Berned in Iowa. Here's my favorite bit: Sanders "was headed to a May 31 rally at the American Indian Center in Minneapolis, his first big campaign event outside his New England home turf. But Sanders was still blocks away -- and the car he was in was not moving. 'Is there a wreck ahead?' Sanders anxiously asked his field director, Phil Fiermonte. 'No,' Fiermonte replied, 'they're here to see you.' More than 3,000 of them, many standing outside because the hall was full. 'It never occurred to me in a million years that line was for us,' Sanders recalled in a telephone interview Sunday.... 'I said, "Whoa." That was the first inkling that I had that this campaign was catching on.'" ...
... Frank Rich reflects on the Iowa results & what may happen going forward. As we noted here a few days ago, Rich's predictions haven't been too great. (Have you heard anybody outside of the Paul household saying "President Paul.") Nonetheless, Rich always offers an interesting perspective. ...
... AND Charles Pierce reflects on the Iowa results. Something, something, inequality, Epistle of James.
*****
Presidential Race
Josh Cassidy of the New Yorker sums up the state of the race: "After a remarkable night in Iowa, one that served as a rebuke to Donald Trump and to the opinion pollsters, the Democratic Party was faced with the prospect of confronting a youthful and articulate Republican candidate come November: Senator Marco Rubio, who finished a strong third in the G.O.P. caucus, behind Ted Cruz and Trump. Before then, though, Democrats have some messy internal business to deal with: Bernie Sanders, promoting an American version of 'people power,' has confirmed his capture of the Party's under-forty wing, which means trouble for Hillary Clinton." ...
Michael Barbaro of the New York Times: "Monday night's results confirmed that despite the widening cultural and political fissures that have divided right and left, voters are united in an impatience, even a revulsion, at what they see as a rigged system that no longer works for them. For Republicans, the enemy is an overreaching government, strangling their freedoms and pocketbooks. For Democrats, it is an unfair economy, shrinking their paychecks and aspirations.... And it sent a forceful message to Democratic leaders that it was unwilling to put aside its resentment of Wall Street and corporate America to crown a lifelong party insider who has amassed millions in speaking fees from the big banks."
Patrick Healy of the New York Times: "Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont were locked in an intensely tight race in the Iowa caucuses on Monday as Mrs. Clinton's strong support among women and older voters was matched by the passionate liberal foot soldiers whom Mr. Sanders has been calling to political revolution. The close results were deeply unnerving to Mrs. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, as well as her advisers, some of whom had expressed growing confidence in recent days that they had recaptured political momentum after weeks when Mr. Sanders was drawing huge crowds and rising in the polls. The Clintons had appeared optimistic at rallies over the weekend, thanking Iowans for their support as much as urging them to turn out to vote. The close vote means that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders are likely to split Iowa's share of delegates to the Democratic convention, and Mr. Sanders will be able to argue that the Iowa result was a virtual tie."
Dan Roberts, et al., of the Guardian: "Both [Democratic] candidates will now move on to New Hampshire buoyed up, Clinton with a 'sigh of relief' that her bid to be the first female president of the United States is alive, and Sanders believing that his revolution against the 'billionaire classes' truly began in the snowy cornfields of Iowa. With half of the results in across the rural midwest state, Clinton appeared to be easing to victory, three points up on the Vermont senator, whose relatively ramshackle campaign seemed to be no match for her mighty political machine. But as the night wore on, Clinton's lead shrank to two and then one point, until she was locked in a virtual tie with the 74-year-old whose passion has ignited a fervour among young Americans. Appearing onstage in Des Moines before the final tally arrived, Clinton hailed 'a contest of ideas' and appeared battle-ready for the fight of her political life."
Jamil Smith of the New Republic: "The Clinton campaign released a statement that read, in part, 'After thorough reporting -- and analysis -- of results, there is no uncertainty and Secretary Clinton has clearly won the most national and state delegates. Statistically, there is no outstanding information that could change the results and and no way that Senator Sanders could overcome Secretary Clinton's advantage.'"
Tony Leyes of the Des Moines Register: "Hillary Clinton's campaign claimed a slim victory early Tuesday over populist firebrand Bernie Sanders in the Iowa caucuses, though his spokeswoman said the results were not settled. Iowa Democratic Party officials worked into the early morning hours, trying to chase down results from a handful of precincts. About 2:30 a.m., the party's website showed that Clinton had 49.9 percent of the delegates to Sanders' 49.6 percent, with 1,682 of 1,683 precincts reporting":
Jason Noble of the Des Moines Register: "In a handful of Democratic caucus precincts Monday, a delegate was awarded with a coin toss. It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings. As a result of the coin toss, Clinton was awarded an additional delegate, meaning she took five of the precinct's eight, while Sanders received three....Similar situations were reported elsewhere, including at a precinct in Des Moines, at another precinct in Des Moines, in Newton, in West Branch and in Davenport. In all five situations, Clinton won the toss." CW: What are the odds? Seems like a conspiracy to me! (Yeah, I know how probability works. Each toss is independent. Also, apparently not socialist.)
Scott Bixby, et al., of the Guardian: "Former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley announced that he was suspending his campaign for the White House on Monday night after a devastating loss in the Iowa caucuses that gave the candidate a fraction of a percentage point."
Eric Levitz of New York: "Bernie Sanders owns the future of the Democratic Party. In 2008, voters under 30 propelled Barack Obama to victory, choosing the Illinois senator over Hillary Clinton by a 43-point margin. In 2016, those younger voters single-handedly lifted America's favorite democratic socialist to a virtual tie: Sanders outperformed Clinton among voters 18 to 29 by 70 points, according to CNN's entrance poll.... Considering the structural disadvantages Sanders faced -- the concentration of his support among college students in a few select counties -- it's entirely possible the Vermont senator actually turned out more supporters than Clinton did."
Jeet Heer of the New Republic: "... if the night was muddy and unclear in term of its electoral meaning, it did show the ideological direction of the party in very forthright terms: Sanders is winning the battle of ideas and tugging Clinton to the left."
Jamelle Bouie of Slate: "if you are a Democrat who wants to win the White House for a third term -- or a progressive who just wants to minimize the damage to your priorities -- you should relish the upcoming combat. Why? Because a competitive primary will energize the Democratic Party and prime it for a tough and grueling general election. In Iowa, for example, returns suggest turnout that either meets or exceeds the record from 2008." ...
... John Cassidy (linked above): "Speaking on CNN as it got late, David Axelrod, President Obama's former campaign manager, made an acute point. One of Hillary's problems is that her campaign is largely about herself — her experience, her electability, and her toughness. 'I will keep doing what I have done my entire life,' she said in her non-victory speech. 'I will keep standing up for you. I will keep fighting for you.' Sanders, on the other hand, rarely mentions himself in his speeches. His campaign is all about his message of taking American back from the billionaires. And as Axelrod pointed out, it is often easier to inspire people, particularly young people, with an uplifting theme than with a résumé."
Greg Sargent on the Clinton who can't feel your pain.
Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, powered by a surge of support from evangelical Christians, dealt a humbling loss to Donald J. Trump in the Iowa caucuses on Monday, throwing into question the depth of support for Mr. Trump's unconventional candidacy.... Senator Marco Rubio of Florida finished a strong third, bolstering his case to consolidate the support of Republicans uneasy about the two top finishers. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Cruz had nearly 28 percent of the vote, Mr. Trump 24 percent and Mr. Rubio 23 percent."
Allegra Kirkland of TPM: "After decisively winning the Iowa GOP caucuses late Monday night, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) asked Democrats to join him in the race to the White House in an emotional, teleprompter-free speech that ran more than 30 minutes.... Joined on stage by his wife Heidi Cruz, his father Rafael Cruz, and his senior Iowa campaign staffers, the Texas senator gave a lengthy speech that leaned heavily on his spiritual beliefs and his political battles against the 'Washington cartel.' The lengthy run-time prompted all four major cable networks -- CNN, Fox News, C-SPAN and MSNBC -- to cut away to the Democratic candidates before the Iowa victor was finished speaking."
Andy Borowitz: "Senator Ted Cruz's stunning victory in the Iowa caucuses is serving as a beacon of hope to despised people across the nation, a number of disliked Americans confirmed on Monday."
Sasha Issenberg of Bloomberg reports on how Ted won -- and, yes, those fraudulent shame-the-voters mailers were part of the plan.
Fox Gets the Last Laugh. Brian Stelter of CNN: "When Donald Trump lost to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses Monday night, Fox News commentators were quick to suggest that Trump's decision to skip Fox's debate had something to do with it. Entrance poll surveys of Iowa voters supported the theory. Marco Rubio won 30% and Ted Cruz won 25% of the GOP voters who made up their minds in the days between the debate and the caucuses. Trump won only 14% of those late-deciding voters.... Kelly was the anchor who announced Cruz's defeat of Trump during the 10 p.m. hour on Monday." ...
... Nate Silver: "... there's good reason to think that the ground game wasn't the only reason for Trump's defeat. Republican turnout in Iowa was extremely high by historical standards and beat most projections. Furthermore, Trump won the plurality of first-time caucus-goers. There may have been a more basic reason for Trump's loss: The dude just ain't all that popular. Even among Republicans." ...
... Andrew Rosenthal of the New York Times: "At around 2:30 on Monday afternoon, at a rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Donald Trump was loudly, confidently and repeatedly proclaiming his impending victory in Iowa. Just before 10 p.m., he was acting like he had never expected to win, and like coming in second was a YUGE accomplishment.... It's impossible to know whether Mr. Trump understands that his slack campaign organization in Iowa may have cost him dearly here. Kenneth P. Vogel of Politico said Mr. Trump spent almost as much on hats as he did on payroll." ...
Steve M.: "Am I sorry the ignorant bigot lost? Yes, I am. Even though Trump has created a particularly toxic strain of Republicanism, he poses a threat to the Republican Establishment -- he tarnishes the GOP brand by saying out loud what other Republicans say in code, and while his agenda may overlap with that of the GOP's power brokers on many issues, he wouldn't just take an ALEC or Grover Norquist agenda off the shelf and run on it, much less govern by it. I think a Trump presidency would be a nightmare, but it would be a singularly Trumpian nightmare -- it wouldn't be a tactical advance in the long war being fought by the Koch brothers and their allies. And we might never get to that point, because Trump would be a weak general election candidate, at a time when the Democrats are going to have a weak candidate of their own. (If Marco Rubio is the nominee, he will win. Take that to the bank.)... I hope someone -- Trump, Kasich ... hell, even Jeb -- humiliates Rubio in New Hampshire next week. If not, I hope Trump and Cruz cleans his clock in South Carolina. He's dangerous."
Adam Gabbatt of the Guardian: "Republican candidate Mike Huckabee has suspended his campaign for president after winning less than 2% of the vote in the Iowa caucus. The former Arkansas governor announced that he was dropping out of the race on Twitter." CW: Now he can devote full-time to scamming the gullible.
Andrea Gonzales & Katherine Faulders of CNN: "Ben Carson's presidential campaign on Monday night insisted the Republican presidential candidate would not be suspending his campaign in the wake of the Iowa caucuses. Instead, the candidate, himself, told reporters that he would be 'going home' to Florida 'to get some fresh clothes.' Carson, who appeared to be running in a distant fourth in Iowa behind leading contenders Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, said he would be home for just 'ten or twelve hours.'"
Sam Shepard of Politico explains why the polls did not predict the caucus outcomes.
Gail Collins & Arthur Brooks have a conversation about the Iowa results. Collins: "Cruz's victory notwithstanding, my current nightmare scenario is that Sanders does somehow win the nomination, with Trump on the other side. Causing Michael Bloomberg to enter as an independent. Which draws away the votes of moderate Democrats and puts Trump in the White House...." Collins on also-rans: "It reminds me of a state legislator I knew years ago who ran against a totally entrenched, incumbent senior U.S. senator. I asked him why and he said: 'Well, he could die. Or get drunk and run into a school bus full of nuns.'"
The New York Times is liveblogging the Iowa caucuses. Their results page is here. (At 9:00 pm ET, the Times had caucus results on its front page.) The Washington Post will have the Iowa caucus results here.
Jose DelReal, et al., of the Washington Post: "Voters gathered at caucus sites around the state and the events officially began at 7 p.m. Central time. Political operatives predicted a high turnout -- and there were reports that some sites were so packed that officials had trouble closing the doors -- despite a significant snowstorm that was bearing down on the state. Forecasters said the storm would likely hit after the caucuses were closed."
Six- to eight-year-olds from the Washington, D.C., area assess the candidates:
Ian Millhiser of Think Progress: The Iowa caucus system is so undemocratic that even Iowa's senator, Joni Ernst (RTP) can't vote -- she has to be at work in Washington. "... Thousands of Iowans will ... be unable to vote because they work for a living."
Jamelle Bouie: "Win or lose, [Bernie] Sanders will stand as a historic presence in the Democratic Party.... Democrats have always kept their left flank at arms length.... Whatever the Democratic Party is in the next 20 or 30 years, it will owe a great deal to Sanders and all the people -- young or otherwise -- who felt the Bern." Also, he has "real clean teeth."
Sara Jerde of TPM: "Donald Trump told the crowd gathered at his campaign rally on Monday to 'knock the crap' out of anybody who threw a tomato at him. Trump said the event's security staff told him there was a risk people would throw the juicy fruit.... 'I will pay for the legal fees. I promise,' he added. 'They won't be so much because the courts agree with us too.'" ...
... digby: "I'm not in favor of tomato throwing by the way. But Trump telling citizens to 'knock the crap' out of them and he'll pay the legal fees is ... unpresidential to say the least. If anyone takes him up on it, it might even be called accessory to an assault. What the hell is happening here? is this becoming normalized? Gangster in Chief?" ...
... Trump drops cash in the place his little wine & little cracker go. This makes me laugh even as someone who has surely goofed during ceremony or rite with which I was unfamiliar. Anyway, it's the thought that counts. ...
... Kareem Abdul-Jabar, in a Washington Post op-ed, tells Trump voters their guy isn't who he says he is & won't be able to give them what they want. It's a pretty devastating analysis. ...
... Jonathan Swan of the Hill: "Donald Trump is so fiercely opposed by the Koch brothers network that some donors believe the powerful group will intervene to stop the billionaire if it looks like he could win the Republican presidential nomination.... On the eve of the Iowa causes, Koch network officials revealed in a private meeting with donors that they had commissioned focus group research to identify Trump's vulnerabilities." CW: Which is something of an argument contra Abdul-Jabar. Trump voters don't want these fat cats picking the president. They'll pick their own, thank you, even if in their foolishness they opt for a megalomanical fat cat. ...
... OR, as Paul Waldman remarks, "Nothing says 'democracy' like a couple of billionaires spending millions of dollars to keep another billionaire from winning the presidency." ...
All In. Brian Beutler: "How did the party that has recently been led by country-club candidates like Mitt Romney and Bob Dole come to be overtaken by a performance artist whom these former nominees detest?... The maximalism of the GOP's obstruction [of President Obama's initiatives] reflected not just the party's ideological median, but its political determination that Obama's presidency should be a failure.... Trump..., more than any Republican candidate..., has shaped his entire campaign around defining himself as an anti-Obama.... As the first votes of 2016 are cast, Republicans are preparing themselves to nominate the antithesis of an outgoing president that about half the country still likes.... It's an incredibly risky political gamble. And to the regret of the faltering establishment candidates who will be exiting the race in the coming days, the party went all-in seven years ago."
Ed Kilgore of New York: "The vibe at Jeb Bush's downtown Des Moines caucus 'briefing' Monday afternoon is upbeat and upscale -- but it's taking place under the shadow of reports circulating in the right-wing media that the campaign is paying an army of 'seat fillers' $25 an hour to make this rally look full.... A Congressional Medal of Honor winner who begins the proceedings refers to him as 'George — er, Jeb -- Bush.'... [At the end of Iowa Gov. Terry Bradstad's introduction,] two young men stand up and yell out, 'We've been here for two hours and haven't gotten paid.'... The interruption is yet another recapitulation of the general sense of failure that has haunted Jeb's campaign from around the time Trump entered the race."
Other News
If it's Groundhog Day, it must be time for the House to vote to repeal ObamaCare. Sure enough.
Richard Alba in the American Prospect: "The disappearance of a white majority in the United States by the middle of this century is now widely accepted as if it were an established fact." But it ain't necessarily so. Alba explains why "longstanding processes of assimilation could produce a white-dominated mainstream at the national level and in many regions for the foreseeable future."
Ariana Cha, et al., of the Washington Post: "The World Health Organization designated the Zika virus and its suspected complications in newborns as a public health emergency of international concern Monday. The action, which the international body has taken only three times before, paves the way for the mobilization of more funding and manpower to fight the mosquito-born pathogen spreading 'explosively' through the Americas." CW: Somehow, this real crisis is going to become "all Obama's fault" & Chris Christie will quarantine a pregnant Guatemalan woman.
Stephanie Clifford & Jessica Silver-Greenberg of the New York Times: "Though much of the focus on bank fraud has been on sophisticated hackers, it is the more prosaic figure of the teller behind the window who should worry depositors, according to prosecutors, government officials and security experts.... Rich and elderly bank customers are particularly at risk, prosecutors say, when tellers and other retail-branch employees tap into accounts to wire funds without authorization, make fake debit cards to withdraw money from A.T.M.s and sell off personal information to other criminals. Accounts with high balances and those with direct deposits of government funds, like Social Security payments, are especially coveted." ...
... CW: Yikes! Except for the rich part, that would be me. I am the mark.
Julian Aguilar of the Texas Tribune: Texas "Gov. Greg Abbott and U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Laredo Democrat, pressed the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Monday to explain why the agency plans to reduce its aerial surveillance on the Texas-Mexico border. In a letter to DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson, the lawmakers said the cut to a requested 3,850 hours of aerial detection and monitoring in 2016 amounts to 50 percent less coverage than recent years."
Capitalism Is AWESOME! Michael Liedtke of the AP: "Alphabet now comes before Apple atop the list of the world's most valuable companies. The shift occurred in Monday's extended trading after Alphabet, Google's new parent company, released a fourth-quarter earnings report that highlighted the robust growth of the digital ad market. Apple Inc.'s iPhone, meanwhile, is suffering its first downturn since it debuted eight years ago." ...
Capitalism Is Awesome, Ctd. Clint Rainey of New York: "Last fall, Nestlé took the unusual step of admitting slave labor exists in its seafood supply chains. These accusations had been around for a while, but Nestlé's report owning up to them was seen as groundbreaking for the industry. The thing is..., Nestlé doesn't really buy that much fish, and human-rights advocates have shifted to a much bigger raw material for the conglomerate -- cocoa from the Ivory Coast -- that they also say is tainted by ties to slavery, only Nestlé won't acknowledge it. Their anger is mostly centered on Nestlé's tactics to kill a big lawsuit filed by former victims of child slavery who worked on these farms. And this fury's officially kicked into high gear now that the Supreme Court looked at the case and refused to throw it out, taking Nestlé from good guy back to bad guy in slave-labor news."
Beyond the Beltway
Judd Legum of Think Progress: "On Saturday, 300 plumbers from unions across the country descended on Flint to install new faucets and water filters for free.... The effort was coordinated by the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry, known as the United Association. The fixtures were donated by the Plumbing Manufacturers International." CW: Take a look at the photos of the plumbers. They are mostly white guys. The residents of Flint mostly are not. Think progress.
Lyndsey Layton of the Washington Post: "Republican lawmakers in Illinois last month pitched a bold plan for the state to seize control of the Chicago Public Schools, one of a growing number of states that are moving to sideline local officials -- even dissolve locally elected school boards -- and take over struggling urban schools. Governors in Michigan, Arkansas, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia, Ohio and elsewhere -- mostly Republican leaders who otherwise champion local control in their fights with the federal government -- say they are intervening in cases of chronic academic or financial failure." ...
... CW: The evidence that Republicans fundamentally oppose democracy is now overwhelming.
Molly Young of the Oregonian: "The dividing line over a monthlong armed standoff in [Burns, Oregon] ... deepened Monday. Hundreds of people converged on the county courthouse lawn to send a singular message to the remaining occupiers at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge and their supporters: Go home. But backers of the anti-government standoff also turned out by the hundreds and made clear they would not back down.... A self-styled patriot group from Idaho organized the protest backing the occupation." The protests lasted for about four hours. ...
... Maxine Bernstein of the Oregonian: "Lawyers for Ammon Bundy this week will challenge U.S. Magistrate Judge Stacie F. Beckerman's order to keep Bundy in custody pending trial." ...
... Maxine Bernstein: "Peter T. Santilli, one of the 11 defendants charged with federal conspiracy stemming from the armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, will challenge a magistrate judge's detention order before another federal judge on Tuesday. On Friday, U.S. Magistrate Judge Stacie F. Beckerman had characterized Santilli's case as a 'close call,' but on Monday, she ordered him to remain in custody, pending trial. She found he remains a serious risk of flight and danger to the community." ...
... The Hypocrites' Defense. Ryan Reilly of the Huffington Post (Jan. 29, updated yesterday): "As of Friday, six of the militants have been assigned a federal public defender or court-appointed lawyer, meaning the federal government they were protesting will be footing their legal bills. Ammon Bundy -- the son of rancher Cliven Bundy, who engaged in a prior battle with the federal government over unpaid grazing fees -- is crowdsourcing online to pay for his private legal defense. All of the people arrested -- Ammon Bundy and his brother Ryan Bundy, Jon Ritzheimer, Joseph O'Shaughnessy, Ryan Payne, Brian Cavalier, Shawna Cox and Peter Santilli -- have a court appearance scheduled for Feb. 3 and an arraignment set for Feb. 24."
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Reader Comments (17)
To understand why the WHO has so quickly designated the zika virus a global emergency, it is helpful to look at Google Images: "microcephaly MRI." It's not just a teeny skull: the brains inside those skulls are very abnormal - easily seen by non medical eyes. It's relevant to the discussion about evolution being only about successfully perpetuating the gene pool. These zika babies are not going to survive childhood, much less puberty.
The zika situation is really all about the modern world. Thanks to the Wright brothers, there is no problem moving a virus from Africa to America. It has not been noticed before because in its regions of origin it can easily infect young children who usually have mild to no symptoms. However it creates an antibody response that protects so that when the child grows and has a baby, no problem.
So what we are seeing here is the virus suddenly moving to a new region. Eventually the microcephaly problem should go away but that will take years. A vaccine for women of certain age makes serious sense.
Marie, I am sure Adolf and Ooze will declare it's Obama's fault since the Mexicans crossing the border will bring the virus. Note this will happen in spite of the fact that it is unlikely that the virus will do well in the US climate. Note all cases so far are from people traveling to at risk locations. There is no evidence of US transmission. Christie will do nothing. He spends no time in NJ so he will have no idea if there is a problem.
@Marvin Schwalb: Good points. Maybe Christie will quarantine Marco Rubio in New Hampshire.
Marie
And maybe Adolf will build a mosquito wall!!
Interpreting the results:
Cruz manages to get 27% of the votes in a State with a high percentage of evangelical voters.
Rubio actually does get a boost.
Trump will not be 'humbled' by his loss. If he got 1% his brain would consider that a form of good news.
Clinton needs to start dealing with the young.
Sanders needs to convert to Christianity.
Its past time for the remaining boozing, toking, paranoid, junk snacking four holdouts at Malheur to be moved on to a jail cell. The longer the going-no-where nonsense continues, the more outside wingnuts have space to gain attention and cause havoc. Another shooting, this time in the community and maybe involving an innocent, can't be far behind. WTF are the FBI, et al waiting for???
I was thinking this morning that it's time for Juanito Arbuto to say "Adios, amigos" and ride off into whatever sunset is fitting enough for a member of one of the most offensive and deleterious families in American history. He was beaten not only by the top three turds, Cruz, Trump, and Rubio, but also by a crazy person and a curmudgeonly little asshole in a bad toupée.
But then I thought about Marco Rubio cranking out nearly a quarter of the votes. Then I thought about Hillary. And Bernie.
I'm still thinking Bernie will have a very hard time in the general. I think Hillary can beat Trump or Cruz. But Rubio? I'm not so sure. He hasn't had as big a spotlight on him as Cruz and Trump have which means his particular peccadilloes, his flip-flops for Jesus, his weird personal money issues, and his alarmingly aggressive talk of finding and killing people (run of the mill Confederate blather, I know, but...), have not become daily fodder in the MSM.
And worst of all? With this showing in Iowa, he may suddenly be the new favorite of the Kochs and the rest of the big money types who originally crowded aboard the Juanito Expresso. Cruz is just too slimy and unlikable. Trump is, well, Trump. But Rubio might be able to limbo under the radar long enough to fool plenty of voters.
Because here's the thing. People fucking hate Hillary Clinton. Hate her. I heard this morning from Iowa Republicans who said they'd consider voting for Bernie but never for Clinton. That shit scares me.
So it's not like I'd be sorry to see Jeb! depart on a broken down elephant to parts unknown. He's a prick. And a Bush-Stupid Prick to top it off. But the oligarchs don't want Trump, they hate Cruz, Carson is an insane person and Li'l Randy is a big--sorry, little--nothing. And with Bush out of the running, that leaves Rubio.
We need him to lose big in NH.
On the other hand, I might be overreacting. He did get a bit less than a quarter of the votes and Trump may regain his footing once he's out of Iowa. And Cruz won't go back into his sump hole without plenty of dirty fighting.
Still....
Diane,
I can't say for sure, but the MO so far, for law and order officials, has been to lay low and wait 'em out. At least that's what I've been reading. No one wanted another Waco, which is understandable, especially given the specific gravity of the Bundy Boobs (the comparison being normal people--water--to idiots--the Bundies), and taking into account how heavily armed they were (are) and their promises to kill anyone who tried to remove them. And by the way, shouldn't that alone--threats to murder law enforcement--be enough to put these people behind bars? Terroristic threatening, and such?
Anyway....
I'm guessing that plan is still in effect. Wait out the assholes. Besides, there's been one martyr already. A couple more would give plenty more ammo (so to speak) to the gummint hating knuckledraggers (not that they need any more).
So, as much as I would love to see these treasonous bastards led out in shackles and leg irons, I'm okay with them coming out with their tails between their legs, begging for mercy.
My only quibble: why don't authorities ever use this tactic when black people are involved? Why is it only the gun totin', cousin marryin', more toes than teeth types who get the kid gloves? Does anyone think for a second that were the people in that bird sanctuary a bunch of Black Lives Matter kids, they wouldn't all be either dead or locked up within hours?
I may be more disturbed this AM by the Iowa results than events will eventually warrant, but I'm not seeing much to be optimistic about.
On the Right we have Crazy Cruz a winner with the sweet-faced, tough-talking Rubio coming up on the outside, close enough to the leaders at the finish to edge into the victory celebration's limelight.
That too many pundits think Rubio could be our next President scares my socks off, not just because his platform calls for more militarization, despite all the evidence that tells us you can't bomb people into democracy, but because his economic naivete would place our fate in the hands of the corporatists, who clearly know what's best for their America and can prove it because they have the money.
Read the other day that Rubio would deal with the high cost of college by indenturing young people to corporate sponsors who would pay their way and then expect some years of servitude in return for their largesse. Whadda plan! Educational sharecropping, the essence of freedom. That Rubio can blandly propose something so undemocratic with no hint that he understands the implications of what he had said, may be the most of the many things that are frightening about him.
And then my beloved Left?
Seems we have not drawn a clear connection between government's dysfunction and the Right's successful scorched earth practices. The Right does not want government to work and has done a good job directing its millions to make sure it doesn't.
Bernie may be mostly right about what he says, but his presentations are too general and his message too unvaryingly repetitive to travel beyond the already-convinced.
And people on the Right and many on the Left sense the Clintons are too tied to the economic forces that frustrate democracy to be effective advocates for the common man and woman.
I'll look forward to changing my mind about all this as the weeks pass.
@Marvin..No. the Drumpf has plans (not for a wall) but a yuuuge mosquito net. It will be suspended from the tallest pole in the world and will cover the United States. He will put unemployed mill workers back to work weaving it! He is, after all a yuuuge job creator.
Oh, boy. Someone actually tried to parse Palin's speaking style to make some sense out of it, equating it to badly translated Latin.
At the end, "I honestly am not sure what’s going on in this sentence. What I do know is that Sarah Palin has this in common with Roman orators: She loves to talk trash."
Like I said, Trump not 'humbled' by his loss. Tweeets:
“Because I was told I could not do well in Iowa, I spent very little there - a fraction of Cruz & Rubio. Came in a strong second. Great honor.”
“The media has not covered my long-shot great finish in Iowa fairly. Brought in record voters and got second highest vote total in history!”
The attempted (in many cases actual) takeover of public schools by Confederates is part of the long game; controlling education, keeping the population stoopid, is one of the best ways the message of fear and loathing perpetuated by Republican pols can gain footholds in young minds. Be afraid, hate your neighbor if they're not white, hate the government, fear the government, vote Republican. Interesting how the rationale behind these takeovers is to make sure schools are locally controlled. Funny how, in right wing world, that is never the case. Unless it's Texas, where school boards are populated by religious nutjobs, gun humpers, and Confederate flag wavers.
So, how do schools in states controlled by Confederates (or those that voted for the RomBot in 2012) do compared to those in states that voted for President Obama last time 'round?
Someone has already done the math. Certainly there are many variables and results here are just a tad above anecdotal, but it's revealing nonetheless. One simple question regarding academic achievement might be to ask how many students from the various states have been Intel Science Award winners.
Hold on to your hats... big surprise!
There are 40 finalists for these awards. 36 came from Obama states. Four from Confederate states.
Science? What's that? Liberal lies!!
So when you hear Ted Cruz praising Jesus for his win in Iowa and ripping scientific findings about global warming in the next breath, you know exactly what he's got in mind for education.
Marvin,
It strikes me that all three leading Confederate candidates all sang the same "poor, poor, pitiful me" song of victimization:
Cruz: They said I could never win. Said a true conservative like me had no chance. Told me to go home.
Trump: I told my friends I was going to Iowa, they said I was crazy, that I had no chance there.
Rubio: They all said it was impossible for me. They said I was too young, that my boot heels are too high.
So Rubio is stupid as well as a victim. You get the idea though. They're all underdog victims. So fucking tired of that shit. These assholes control so much of the country and work like Trojans to keep everyone else from the levers of power, and yet to hear them tell it, they're all Alfred Dreyfus being wheeled onto the boat to Devil's Island by liberals and the media.
Christie calls Rubio "a boy in a bubble", and I'll be very curious to see Rubio's reactions when his feet are put to the fire on a national scale. Thus far I haven't seen any significant, prolonged attacks aimed at him outside Florida. He's slick and trained well with his defensive one liners whenever confronted, but sustained attacks could destabilize his airbrushed, P.R. perfected façade.
If Trump is good for anything, it's for savaging his opponents at all costs. I think he'll soon be unleashing his wrath towards his perceived opponents; friendly fire if you will. The synergy is tilting toward mud slinging on a monumental scale.
@Akhilleus. Thanks for your perspective. I agree that it appears the plan is to wait out the four remaining occupiers. However, I think the calculus has changed. In reading the Oregonian's daily updates, it looks like the potential for violence is just as imminent, if not more so, among the wingnuts riding in from various other locations and groups, than breaching the reserve. The longer the Malheur four are left to their own devices, like talking on wingnut radio, the more time there is for other heavily armed crazies to assemble. If an innocent bystander in the community is killed, it would make for a much more significant martyr felt on both sides of the argument.
Waco was a very different scenario, private property, "Koreshians" defending their compound, poorly planned raid, a religious sect who believed they were living in the end days, a large scope and loss of life. Completely my own opinion, but Waco is way overused as a cautionary tale for scenarios in which it doesn't apply.
I'm on the West coast, so forgive me being a day late and a dollar short.
Every time I see Cruz I want to tweak him with my fingers like his daughter. I guess Ted is not the only member of the Cruz tribe to not play nice with others. Now, if we could hear from some of Heidi's Goldman Sachs co-workers ....It couldn't happen to a more deserving fellow. Do you think she felt like he was using her like a doll?