The Commentariat -- Jan. 18, 2015
Photo removed.
A Constant Weader Challenge to Readers: In the French TV segment I've linked under Infotainment, the host suggests that the Washington Post debunked a survey that showed one in six French people support ISIS. A post in Daily Kos by an anonymous contributor flat-out says, "that poll was debunked by the Washington Post." Yesterday, Akhilleus wrote, "I spotted an article touting the problems recent college grads have with critical thinking. Four out of ten seem unable to parse basic problems or spot logical fallacies." I took a look at the WashPo piece, by Adam Taylor (whose pic suggests he could pass for a recent college grad) supposedly debunking the survey. It's crap. If you spot the logical fallacy in the WashPo post, please write in & tell us what it is. Let's see if a few Reality Chex readers are smarter than the most clueless recent college grads. If not, je désespère.
CW: I've occasionally described the Occupy movement as a failure. But if you look at the stories linked today about President Obama's upcoming SOTU address, Mitt Romney's magical imaginary populism & Elizabeth Warren's clout, it's pretty clear that Occupy, noxious though it became in a number of ways, forced into the open the central issue of our government & of our society, one that has been festering for decades.
Julie Davis of the New York Times: "President Obama will use his
Greg Sargent (Friday): "At the Republican retreat, Senate GOP leaders are apparently working overtime to dial down expectations among Republicans who still hope that the Congressional GOP can put a stop to President Obama's out-of-control lawlessness.... Mitch McConnell is telling colleagues that he needs six Democrats to get the 60 votes he needs to overcome the Democratic blockade [of the House Homeland Security/anti-immigrant bill]. The reporting out there indicates that this isn't going to happen. And on top of that, the Hill notes, a handful of Republican Senators (presumably ones up for reelection in Obama states who don't want to vote for deporting the DREAMers) might also oppose the House GOP measure." (Missing link.) ...
... Nancy LeTourneau of the Washington Monthly: "The scenario of leadership having to organize a super-majority to get something passed in the Senate while their base makes unreasonable demands and moderates threaten to jump ship is one we've seen before. Perhaps Sen. McConnell should have a little sit-down with Sen. Reid and President Obama to get some pointers. Of course there are a lot of serious issues at stake here. But before we get to those, I'm just going to pause and enjoy a moment of schadenfreude :-)"
Tara Culp-Ressler of Think Progress: "Several Republican congresswomen are reportedly splitting from their party on a national abortion bill that’s scheduled for a vote in the House next week, raising concerns that the legislation is too extreme and will alienate female voters. The GOP-controlled House will vote on a proposed 20-week abortion ban next Thursday -- the 42nd anniversary of Roe v. Wade.... The legislation has passed the House for the past two years and was expected to have broad support in the 114th Congress, particularly as Republicans have set their sights on later abortions as an area where they believe they can advance their agenda." ...
... Lauren French & Jake Sherman of Politico have more on the pushback against the bill.
Almost Funny. So the GOP, which hopes to lose its well-deserved image as the White Man's Party is losing the support of women with their barefoot-&-pregnant program & of Hispanics with their deport-'em-all appropriations bill. Now, ha ha, their worried about expanding their appeal to black Americans:
... AP: "Eager to attract more minority voters, some "Republicans are worried that their party's near-certain candidate for a House seat in New York City could become the latest drag on GOP diversity efforts. Daniel Donovan seems sure to become the Republican nominee in a special election in the 11th congressional district, which covers Staten Island and a sliver of Brooklyn. Donovan ... is also the prosecutor who presented evidence to the grand jury that decided against charging a white police officer in last July's chokehold death of Eric Garner, an unarmed black suspect."
GOP Presidential Hopeful Makes up Stuff. In another attack on Social Security, Congressional Republicans have created a "new rule" that would disallow routine transfers from the Social Security retirement trust fund to the SSI disability program unless the transfers are balanced with new revenues (which the majority GOP Congress won't pass) or benefits cuts. Sen. Rand Paul is out in the hinterlands (New Hampshire, by chance, which just coincidentally is the first state to hold a presidential primary) to bolster their case, claiming that too many people on SSI disability are lazy fraudsters:
Over half the people on disability are either anxious or their back hurts. Join the club. Who doesn't get up a little anxious for work every day and their back hurts? Everybody over 40 has a little back pain. -- Rand Paul, January 14
Politifact: "The numbers don't add up. The two broader disability categories that include back pain ('diseases of the musculoskeletal system') and anxiety disorders ('mental disorders - other') don't even equal close to 50 percent, let alone those two ailments by themselves. Paul's quip might make for a good soundbite, but it's not rooted in reality. We rate the statement False."
Michael Schmidt & Susanne Craig of the New York Times: "A delegation of American legislators led by Senator Patrick J. Leahy arrived in Cuba on Saturday to discuss greater cooperation and remaining areas of disagreement, the first congressional delegation to visit the island nation since President Obama announced last month that he was restoring full diplomatic ties with it."
... Erica Orden of the Wall Street Journal: "New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is expected to announce in his state-of-the-state address on Wednesday that he will lead a trade mission to Cuba in the coming months...."
Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post: "The tussle [over President Obama's nomination of Antonio Weiss to a top Treasury post] sent [a] ... signal ... of how [Elizabeth] Warren intends to wield her growing clout. It showed that she and her brand of populism are forces to be reckoned with -- not only by Obama and his team, but also by the Democrats' likely 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton.... Warren wants to make sure that Wall Street-aligned figures who have shaped the Clinton and Obama brand of economic policy for the past quarter-century, going back to former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, are not the only ones at the oval mahogany table."
Adam McDonald of KMOV St. Louis: "St. Ann[, Missouri,] Police apologized to a college student after they admitted to causing severe injuries to his face after accusing him of a crime he didn't commit on Thursday. Police were in pursuit of Anton Simmons, who had 17 warrants our for his name, when 22-year-old Joseph Swink crashed his car trying to avoid the police pursuit on Interstate 70.... Swink is an accounting student at UMSL with no criminal record and was on his way home from an internship when he was accidentally involved in the pursuit." CW: How were the cops to know? Swink is black. So he "looked guilty." ...
... CW: Oh, I must be wrong. Aviva Shen of Think Progress: "While the St. Ann Police Department is apologizing, they say the mistaken identity has 'zero to do about race.'"
Maureen Dowd on "Selma": "There was no need for [director Ava] DuVernay to diminish L.B.J., given that the Civil Rights Movement would not have advanced without him.... 'This is art; this is a movie; this is a film,' DuVernay said [to Gwen Ifill of PBS]. 'I'm not a historian. I'm not a documentarian.' The 'Hey, it's just a movie' excuse doesn't wash.... The truth is dramatic and fascinating enough. Why twist it? On matters of race -- America's original sin -- there is an even higher responsibility to be accurate. DuVernay had plenty of vile white villains -- including one who kicks a priest to death in the street -- and they were no doubt shocking to the D.C. school kids. There was no need to create a faux one." ...
... Contra Dowd (and me), Rep, John Lewis is a Los Angeles Times op-ed: "... this movie is being weighed down with a responsibility it cannot possibly bear. It's portrayal of President Lyndon B. Johnson's role in the Selma marches has been called into question.... Were any of the Selma marches the brainchild of President Johnson? Absolutely not.... I know. I was there. Don't get me wrong, in my view, Johnson is one of this country's great presidents, but he did not direct the civil rights movement." ...
... Here's the WashPo op-ed by Joseph Califano, who claims, based on a conversation between LBJ & Dr. King, which the President taped, that "Selma was LBJ's idea."
... Robin Pogrebin of the New York Times: "Even as the film 'Selma' has recreated the civil rights march to Montgomery for moviegoers, the New-York Historical Society is about to present images of the event captured by someone who was actually there. The exhibition, 'Freedom Journey 1965,' features photographs by Stephen Somerstein, who traveled to Alabama to document the march as a student in City College of New York's night school, where he was picture editor of his student newspaper. Over the five-day, 54-mile march, Mr. Somerstein took about 400 photographs of participants, from spectators who lined the rural roads to whites who heckled the marchers to leaders like the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Rosa Parks." More info. here.
God News
CW: You'll never, never ever guess what book some Mississippi lawmakers want to designate as the official state book. Here's a "Wheel of Fortune" hint: H _ _ y B _ _ _ e. ...
... Via Steve Benen.: "If this sounds at all familiar, Louisiana very nearly made the [same move] ... last year, but backed off once the bill's sponsor acknowledged some 'constitutional problems.'"
... Speaking of Louisiana & Separation of Church & State. Julie O'Donoghue of the Times-Picayune: "A group of religious leaders has scheduled a prayer rally at Southern University to rival Gov. Bobby Jindal's religious gathering -- officially called The Response -- at LSU. The prayer rally at Southern University will take place ... on the same day, Jan. 24, as Jindal's event at the Peter Maravich Assembly Center (PMAC) on LSU's campus. The Southern gathering is being called the 'Prayer Rally for the Soul of Louisiana.' Organizers of the Southern event has said they will focus on Louisiana's mass incarceration rate, Medicaid expansion and the state's failing education system. The list of issues may be a personal critique of Jindal's tenure as governor." CW: Yeah, maybe. Via Benen. ...
... GOP Presidential Hopeful Makes up Stuff. Speaking of Louisiana & Stupid Bobby Jindal Tricks. Paul Singer of Religion News Service: "When a Fox News 'expert' claimed non-Muslims are not welcome in some European cities, Britain's prime minister 'thought it must be April Fools' Day.' But the Louisiana governor's planned speech repeats the charge.... An advance text of Jindal's speech, circulated by his office, warns that Islamic radicals are fomenting anti-Western sentiment in 'no-go zones' where they rule themselves by Islamic religious law, not the laws of their host nations." CW: Or maybe this story should go under "Presidential Race" below.
Greg Horton of Religion News Service: "On the eve of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, many Oklahoma pastors will preach not in robes, but hooded sweatshirts, or hoodies, to protest a proposed state bill that would ban a mask, hood, or covering of the face in public under certain conditions."
Sorry I didn't link this sooner. Emma Margolin of NBC News: "For those anxiously awaiting the nation's next religious freedom showdown, look no further than Atlanta, where a growing controversy is currently unfolding over the recent dismissal of Fire Rescue Chief Kelvin Cochran, who last year wrote and distributed a self-published book that espoused anti-gay views." ...
... New York Times Editors: "Unfortunately, Georgia's lawmakers are ... considering for the second year in a row a 'religious-freedom' bill that, like others around the country, would do little more than provide legal cover for anti-gay discrimination. The First Amendment already protects religious freedom. Nobody can tell Mr. Cochran what he can or cannot believe. If he wants to work as a public official, however, he may not foist his religious views on other city employees who have the right to a boss who does not speak of them as second-class citizens."
Yonat Shimron of Religion News Service: "Hundreds of Duke students rally with Muslims at Friday's call to prayer.... The gathering ... was quiet and peaceful, and emerged spontaneously after Duke University officials on Thursday abruptly reversed their decision to broadcast the Muslim 'adhan,' or call to prayer, from the bell tower atop its iconic chapel."
The story here, by Zack Ford of Think Progress, is that this Kentucky state senator "wants [the school districts] to pay students $2,500 if they see a transgender person in the 'wrong' [school] bathroom." So, okay, incredibly stupid law.
Presidential Race
Hypocrisy, Thy Middle Name Is Mitt. (Thy First Name is Willard.) Rory Carroll of the Guardian: "Mitt Romney has cast himself as a champion of the poor and the underdog in his first public comments since revealing another potential presidential run.... 'Under President Obama the rich have gotten richer, income inequality has gotten worse and there are more people in poverty in American than ever before,' Romney said." ...
... Say What? Seema Mehta & Mark Barabak of the Los Angeles Times: "Mitt Romney's new focus on poverty has many allies baffled. "At one point [during the 2012 election cycle], he appeared to dismiss concerns about the 'very poor' because, he said, they were aided by a safety net that could be repaired if necessary. He was caught on video telling donors that 47% of voters were unavailable to him because they were dependent on the government. After the election, he blamed President Obama giving 'gifts' to black, Latino and young voters for his loss." ...
... The Washington Post story, by Dan Balz & Philip Rucker, is here. CW: The Post's headline -- "Romney, moving toward 2016 run, outlines vision to eradicate poverty" -- is crap. From the Guardian's & Post's reporting, as far as I can tell, there's no "outline"; just a remark that, you know, poverty is bad, & it's all Obama's fault. The actual "outline" goes something like this:
Pass progressive tax reform -- the richer you are,
the greater the cut.
Eliminate corporate taxes.
Cut regulations on business.
Rename EPA: Environmental Pollution Agency.
Subsidize private industry, private schools.
Kill RomneyC ObamaCare.
Cut all social programs/"hammocks."
Appoint justices & judges who understand that
corporations are people, my friend.
... I see Steve M. & I are on the same page: Romney is "saying that the same policies the right has always advocated are still the best policies -- and those, of course, would be huge cuts in social programs, tax cuts (primarily benefiting the rich), and significantly curtailed government regulation. For the good of the poor!... The right isn't conceding anything. It's just finding a new route to the same old endpoint: Cut taxes, cut spending, cut regulation, repeat ad infinitum." ...
CW: Steve & I are not making this up. It come's from the horse's mouth (no, not Rafalca's):
[Romney] cited former president Lyndon B. Johnson's War on Poverty half a century ago. Johnson's intentions were good, he said, but his policies had not worked. He argued that Republicans must persuade voters that conservative policies can 'end the scourge of poverty' in America.
Michael Crowley of Politico: "As Mitt Romney's supporters push the idea that the 2012 Republican nominee might run for president again, one of their core talking points is that Romney was a foreign policy prophet in the last campaign. His vindication on several scores, they argue, gives him a rationale to run again -- and a leg up on his potential Republican rivals.... But, as Democrats point out, any losing candidate can cherry-pick a few issues that later broke his way. And Romney's batting average was hardly perfect. Nor do bragging rights on a few specific issues necessarily translate to a popular foreign policy vision overall." ...
... CW: Nobody seems to say this, but it would have been a diplomatic disaster for the POTUS to offend Putin when the U.S. was pretending, for self-interested reasons, that he was one of our BFFs. You make the kinds of statements Romney made in 2012 about Russia after a crisis has occurred, not while you're trying to prevent it. When you're trying to get people (including radical extremists) to act responsibly, you don't insult them. Had Romney won the election, his foreign policy remarks would have hurt more than helped American interests. The idea that Obama had no idea there were extremists roaming the Middle East is ludicrous.
Missed This One. Tim Alberta of the National Journal (January 15): "Ben Carson -- a Washington outsider, a world-renowned neurosurgeon, a favorite among tea-party insurgents -- had a message Thursday for the Republican Party's most influential establishment figures: I'm not 'crazy.' Speaking to the Republican National Committee's winter meeting, Carson tried to challenge the caricature of him as a right-wing zealot by addressing -- one by one -- many of the individual controversies that have surrounded him, and dismissing them as lies from 'the liberal media.' Carson defended, among other things, his statements about Obamacare being the worst thing since slavery; comparing present-day America to Nazi Germany; and calling last year's Veterans Affairs scandal 'a gift from God' because it revealed holes in the system.... Still, the significant time devoted to explaining and debunking these incidents suggests Carson is keenly aware of the damage they could do to his White House run."
News Ledes
Los Angeles Times: "An Indonesian firing squad executed six convicted drug traffickers early Sunday, sparking condemnations from human rights groups and foreign leaders. The Netherlands, Indonesia's former colonial ruler, said it would withdraw its ambassador and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff said she was 'outraged and dismayed' after Dutch and Brazilian nationals were among those put to death just after midnight in the center of Java, Indonesia’s most populous island."
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Reader Comments (13)
'Under President Obama the rich have gotten richer, income inequality has gotten worse and there are more people in poverty in American than ever before,' Romney said."
"And," Romney added, "vulture capitalists had nothing to do with it."
"Mitt Romney has cast himself as a champion of the poor and the underdog in his first public comments since revealing another potential presidential run...."
Whoa....I think I have it figured out! Mitters has had an epiphany and realized that he must chop up his vast on-shore fortune and share it with the poor and suffering. Whatta guy! And just maybe if he does that, he will get quite a few recruits to Mormonism. Win/Win, I'd say.
P.S. He can always dip into his off-shore accounts to continue his necessary lifestyle.
Humor Endures: Joe Scarborough et al. report an Islamic takeover of Europe. France persists in deluding itself, suppressing the kind of fear America knows so clearly with humor. Two clips from the past week:
http://www.canalplus.fr/c-divertissement/c-le-petit-journal/pid6811-eric-et-quentin.html?vid=1198956
http://www.newscorpse.com/ncWP/?p=24511
Sam Brownback executed a successful news dump Friday. His new budget proposal raises taxes to help start plugging the looming shortfalls. What taxes is he going to raise? Why, taxes on cigarettes and liquor of course. The cigarette tax will go from $0.79 per pack to $2.29 per pack. The liquor tax will go from 8% up to 12%. Grover Norquist pronounced these taxes acceptable because they do not interfere with the goal of eliminating the state income tax.
It looks as if they are still aiming for the "perfect" state: Eliminate progressive taxes, increase regressive taxes.
The Politico article includes many facts and figures, and answered many of the questions I though of as I read it:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/kansas-new-taxes-sam-brownback-114335.html
Here's a moving video featuring twin brothers coming out to their Dad.
The difficulty that is still so apparent today even though we have progressed three-fold in our culture is gut wrenching. I personally know of a young man that lived with the knowledge that he was gay since he was around ten––he hid this fact from his parents (Latino emigrants) until he was in his twenties for fear of reprisal and rejection, especially from the father. Both parents were traumatized by the news––the mother asking over and over if it was her fault. Today this young man is happily married to a terrific guy and the families, on both sides, are more than pleased. It's called facing facts and moving on and loving––. Unfortunately we have those Georgia's lawmakers and people like Kelvin Cochran who tremble in their boots at the thought of gay anything.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/01/15/1357988/-Twin-brothers-come-out-to-their-dad-during-an-emotional-call-VIDEO?detail=email
And here's another video: Ellen DeGeneres responds to a pastor who accuses her of using Taylor Swift ( this talented lass is being used by all sorts of people–-our Speaker of the House had a good time with her) to attract young girls. Ellen handles it expertly as always plus she's very funny.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/01/14/1357769/-Ellen-Degeneres-responds-to-pastor-who-accuses-her-of-using-Taylor-Swift-to-attract-young-girls?detail=email
So Marsha Blackburn is behind the abortion bill? I was just thinking about her the other day wondering how she was faring with all the newbies. She is another one of these Congress critters that send shivers up my spine whenever I hear her speak. This woman's tone of voice smacks of such conceit and self assertiveness, with just the right amount of southern honey thrown in, no one dares argue with her for fear of her asperity––(like Louie's aspersions on his asparagus). She is right, goddamnit, make no mistake!
@ Reader challenge: [submitted with fear and trepidation to the RC ‘thinkerati’]: (1) It is not possible to debunk the inferences from a flawed (likely unscientific) survey if you lack a ‘good data’ from a correctly conducted survey, and (2) if you start from the premise that only Muslims would support ISIL. No kudos for Adam, and definitely no kudos to WaPo editorial staff who thought this would be newsworthy.
Perhaps the Brits thought the survey concerned Isis, the Downton Abby dog. I approve of her too, she doesn't say anything.
I suspect a serious bias in the numbers which would certainly also apply to the US. The Muslims have almost all heard of ISIS. The rest of Europe would have to watch the evening news or read a newspaper to have heard of them. No chance for a very large percentage.
RE: the reader challenge: The first thing I did was look up ICM Research for the Russian news agency Rossiya Segodnya. It appears that like other state run news outlets it distorts in order to promote whatever the Putin people want to promote. For instance:
"While highly likely to have been falsified, the findings might also be indicative of a very real and worrisome cultural shift within France. Marine Le Pen, a far-right antisemitic nationalist who's sponsored by Putin, is also gaining popularity in France."
So––given that the poll itself is suspect the debunking of that supposed flawed data is rather a foolish agenda. His clumsy sentence structure right off the bat gave me pause, but of course that was not the real problem. Looks like I agree with Jeff's assessment––are we on the right track? Or did we miss something crucial?
Jeff (2) is correct: the results indexed those French who answered the phone, not French Muslims. Whether the sampling is credible is a separate issue that would ask for deeper drilling.
The NYT glosses the biggest issue for Chicagoans and the UofC bid for the Obama library. The University is proposing using Park District land - greenspace that many Chicagoans and the powerful group, Friends of the Parks, consider untouchable. Our parks are a great source of pride and are fiercely protected. Currently, the proposed gift of the George Lucas Museum (and its uninspired architecture) is in a battle to acquire a site on lakefront Park District land. A couple of years ago the city was defeated in its wish to relocate the Children's Museum on Park District land. I think the library belongs here and it belongs in a neighborhood that can use revitalization, but I hate to give up park land. The solution will be hard - most especially for the Obamas who may be denied a warm welcome yet again.
Here's my take on the challenge:
It begins with his initial premise: "The Islamic State extremists are very scary. What's even scarier is how they appear to have significant support from European citizens: The number of foreign fighters descending on Syria and Iraq certainly seems unprecedented and it's hard to predict what the long-term consequences will be."
1. "The extremists are scary." Yes, they appear to be going nuts killing people and have taken videos of themselves beheading people. Scary to those directly affected but not to those that are not exposed to their violence.
2. "The number of foreign fighters descending...certainly seems unprecedented." Unprecedented compared to what? Where are these people coming from? I would venture to guess that the vast majority of them are not coming from either France, the UK, or Germany despite the populations of Muslims that they have.
3. "surprisingly large levels of support...is horrifying" and "is higher than any reasonable person would like to see." I would not consider the percentages of 15, 7 or 2% to be significant. Sure, they're greater than zero, but are certainly not a majority of people. He also fails to mention that much higher percentages of people are somewhat or very unfavorable to ISIS.
4. He mentions "Pew polls from 2009." Who cares what the polls said in 2009. ISIS didn't even exist then having only come into being in 2014, five years later. That information is irrelevant.
5. His arguments are based on supposition for the most part, couched on statements such as: "higher than any reasonable person would like to see", "can reasonably expect", "seems unlikely", "seems to fit", "though still perhaps high", "tend to be", " it's hard to imagine", etc. These are all statements of his opinion, not fact.
6. Nobody can predict the future. It's not only "hard to predict the consequences", it's impossible.