The Conversation -- July 5, 2025
Josh Hinkle & David Barer of KXAN Austin: "State and local officials are calling out federal forecasters amid deadly flooding in the Texas Hill Country over the extended Fourth of July weekend. The criticism comes, as funding cuts and staff shortages plague the National Weather Service and other emergency management agencies nationwide. Texas Department of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd told reporters Friday original forecasts from the National Weather Service predicted 4 to 8 inches of rain in that area, 'but the amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts.'... The area actually received a much more significant amount of rain that night, with NWS observed totals exceeding 10 inches just west of Kerrville, near where dozens were killed or remain missing -- including several children at a summer camp." ~~~
~~~ Update. Christopher Flavelle of the New York Times: "Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas on Friday morning, prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose. Texas officials appeared to blame the Weather Service for issuing forecasts on Wednesday that underestimated how much rain was coming. But former Weather Service officials said the forecasts were as good as could be expected, given the enormous levels of rainfall and the storm's unusually abrupt escalation. The staffing shortages suggested a separate problem, those former officials said -- the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight. The shortages are among the factors likely to be scrutinized as the death toll climbs from the floods. Separate questions have emerged about the preparedness of local communities, including Kerr County's apparent lack of a local flood warning system. The county, roughly 50 miles northwest of San Antonio, is where many of the deaths occurred." Read on. This is a gift link. ~~~
~~~ Marie: This is what to expect when "conservatives" govern. They start with the premise that all government is bad and that they should not pay for necessary services. So besides the staff shortages brought on by Chainsaw Elon & Trump's plan to wind down FEMA to useless, there's this from the Times story: "In an interview, Rob Kelly, the Kerr County judge and its most senior elected official, said the county did not have a warning system because such systems are expensive, and local residents are resistant to new spending." Gen. Russel L. Honoré, Retired, -- who led the military's response to Hurricane Katrina -- spoke on CNN yesterday. He said the Guadelupe River had a history of flooding. (See also this page.) So it isn't as if authorities had no idea that an effective warning system and evacuation plan were essential to the safety of vulnerable communities along the river and its tributaries. Still, the locals thought it was smart to vote for folks who would "keep taxes down" and for Trump (Kerr County: 77% Trump, 22% Harris, so +55), who prefers to spend tax dollars on his birthday parade, UFC fights on the White House lawn and deporting the grandma who hand-makes tortillas at the factory lunch truck than on emergency preparedness. Oh, did I mention that Starlink, Texas, home of the deposed DOGE king, is right nearby -- just 20 miles ESE of Austin? Starlink announced it is providing emergency Starlink mini kits to search & rescue teams, as in "horse bolted, close barn door."
In this BlueSky post, Judd Legum makes a list of major U.S. corporations that publicly endorsed Trump's bill. MB: Thanks to RAS for the link. The only one of the companies I consistently use is Comcast (Xfinity), and I'm about to cut the cord. I hope they ask why; I'll tell them because they support a Trump bill that makes poor people poorer and sicker.
Charlie Nash of Mediaite: "Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) claimed on Thursday that a post celebrating that '18 million kids just lost school meals' and 17 million people 'lost health care' was made in error. After the Trump-backed 'Big Beautiful Bill' passed both the House and Senate, one social media user protested, '17 million people just lost health care. 18 million kids just lost school meals. 3 million Americans just lost food assistance.' Van Orden responded to the post, 'YES!'" MB: In error, my ass. Thanks to RAS for the link; RAS reminds us that Van Orden claimed recently that he and his GOP colleagues are super-responsible representatives of the people: "After a journalist suggested that ... Donald Trump was the deciding factor in Van Orden's decision to vote in favor of the ... bill, the congressman protested, 'No, no, no..., the president of the United States didn't give us an assignment. We're not a bunch of little bitches around here. I'm a member of Congress that represent almost 800,000 Wisconsinites. Is that clear?'" Yes. And that representation means reveling in depriving millions of those constituents and their children of adequate food and health care.
~~~~~~~~~~
On Independence Day, Trump Signs Bill to Hurt Ordinary People:
The people are happy, they're happy. -- Donald Trump, pronouncement on Independence Day ~~~
~~~ Chris Cameron of the New York Times: Donald "Trump signed a sweeping domestic policy bill into law on Friday, cementing a major political victory that was timed to take place during Independence Day celebrations. Accompanied by a flyover of B2 bombers, the same aircraft used in the recent bombing of Iran, Mr. Trump touted the massive tax cuts included in the bill and downplayed the unpopularity of the legislation in polls and the potential impact of spending cuts. 'The largest spending cut, and yet, you won't even notice it,' Mr. Trump said while standing with the first lady, Melania Trump, on the balcony of the White House.... Mr. Trump highlighted a list of measures included in the enormous bill he believes are popular, singling out, for example, the expansion of the Child Tax Credit and a reduction in estate taxes. He spoke only in generalities about deep spending cuts to programs like Medicaid and food assistance.
Brian Faler of Politico: "Special tax breaks for venture capitalists, Alaskan fisheries, spaceports, private schools, rum makers and others -- together costing tens of billions of dollars -- quietly caught a ride on Republicans' sprawling domestic policy megabill.... There's a $17 billion expansion of a little-known provision that enables venture capitalists to make a fortune tax-free. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) won a carve-out for the oil and gas industry from a minimum tax on big corporations that was created during the Biden administration. There's a $2 billion break important to the rum industry and, tangentially, Louisiana, said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a tax writer. 'We have the highest per capita intake of alcohol in the nation,' he said.... The bill includes an expansion of a little-known break that Silicon Valley investors have used to nix tax bills on tens and even hundreds of millions of dollars in earnings from Internet startups. Another spends $26 billion to create a new $1,700 credit for people who give to groups providing scholarships for children to attend private school.... There's also a $1 billion provision allowing 'spaceports' -- which the legislation defines as 'any facility located at or in close proximity to a launch site or reentry site' -- to sell tax-exempt bonds, like airports. Sen. Ron Wyden, the chamber's top Democratic tax writer, said in an X post that 'Trump's wedding gift to [Jeff] Bezos and birthday gift to [Elon] Musk were tucked in the new budget bill.'"
Josh Kovensky of TPM: "All in all, the bill directs around $170 billion through 2029 to various forms of immigration enforcement, according to an analysis by the American Immigration Council and TPM's own read of the legislation. ICE, responsible for enforcement, detentions, and removals, will oversee much of the spending. The picture is not so much of an expanded immigration enforcement system, but of an entirely new one.... At the same time, the bill adds only a modest number of immigration judges, capping the number at 800 starting in November 2028 -- an increase from the current approximately 700." ~~~
~~~ Timothy Snyder on Substack: "With the passage of Trump's death bill, we face the prospect of many great harms, including an archipelago of concentration camps across the United States. ['Undocumented' and 'denaturalized' people will be put to work for the government or private corporations]... The government is putting before us the temptation to cooperate in fascist dehumanization on a grand scale.... CEOs should now ... sign a pledge not to use labor from concentration camps.... Americans who shop, which means most of us, should avoid companies that employ labor from camps. Americans who invest should not invest in companies that use labor from concentration camps."
Joseph McCarty of KIKN-TV (Sioux Falls): "A clinic in southwest Nebraska announced Wednesday that it is closing due to financial challenges, including anticipated Medicaid cuts. McCook-based Community Hospital said it is shutting down its clinic in Curtis, a town of about 900 people. The Curtis Medical Center has been in operation for more than 30 years.... The Nebraska Hospital Association has been pushing back against Medicaid cuts in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' being considered in Congress." According to Matt McDermott, who describes himself as a Democratic pollster, the clinic is the only health care provider in the community." (For a town of 900, that seems right.) Curtis is in Frontier County, a county that voted for Trump over Harris by 74 points. Thanks to RAS for the lead; the story all came together in a post by Annie Laurie of Balloon Juice. (Also linked yesterday.)
Shannon Najmabadi of the Washington Post: "The Social Security Administration is telling people that federal income taxes on most recipients' benefits will be eliminated under a recently passed tax and spending bill. But while more seniors will get a tax break, the message itself is confusing and could mislead Social Security recipients about the new policy, some tax and policy experts said.... Policy experts say the bill does not ax federal income taxes on Social Security benefits -- though it does reduce some people's taxes through the new deduction, which is set to expire after 2028. 'There is no provision in the budget bill that directly "eliminates" or even reduces taxes on Social Security benefits,' said Howard Gleckman ... of the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.... 'The new deduction wouldn't help single Social Security beneficiaries younger than age 65, policy experts said." The link is a gift link. See also commentary in yesterday's thread.
Ronda Kaysen of the New York Times: "Canadians have dramatically slowed their searches for homes in the United States in the wake of tariffs by the Trump administration, according to new data from Redfin.... In May, traffic from Canada on the home listing site fell by 26.4 percent from the same time a year ago, marking the fourth straight month of double-digit year over year declines in searches for homes in the United States. The pattern follows ... [Donald] Trumps announcements to enact, pause and negotiate tariffs on the country. While there was a dip in overall traffic to the site during the same period, it was dwarfed by the drop from Canada, said Chen Zhao, the head of economics research for Redfin."
Ken Dilanian & Ryan Reilly of NBC News: "The release of formerly classified FBI and CIA documents this week illustrates how ... Donald Trump's appointees at both agencies are trying to use the levers of government to prop up his long-standing assertions that intelligence agencies conspired against him. The FBI released emails on Tuesday that purport to show an effort by the bureau's leaders in 2020 to cover up a source's claim that there was a Chinese plot to throw the presidential election to Joe Biden. In a statement to the Daily Mail, Trump's FBI director, Kash Patel, said the emails reveal that bureau leaders 'chose to play politics and withhold key information from the American people.' And CIA Director John Ratcliffe released an internal agency analysis related to the 2020 election that he argued showed that Democratic appointees 'manipulated intelligence and silenced career professionals -- all to get Trump.' Patel's and Ratcliffe's claims went beyond the information contained in the released documents. The documents do not describe definitive evidence that any official acted out of political motive or engaged in anything beyond the good-faith debate that is typical of the intelligence verification and analysis process."
Lydia O'Connor of the Huffington Post highlights some of the anti-Trump conspiracy theories pushed by the FBI's deputy director & former podcaster & Fox "News" host Dan Bongino.
Jeff Gerstein & Kyle Cheney of Politico: "A federal judge denied a last-ditch bid for legal protection from eight men seeking to stave off deportation to South Sudan, saying the Supreme Court had given the final word on the matter two days earlier. U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy denied an emergency motion by the men to prevent the deportations to the war-torn African nation scheduled for later Friday evening. They are currently housed in a shipping container on a U.S. military base in Djibouti. Murphy's decision came after a frenzied day in court by attorneys for the eight men, who initially filed an emergency petition in Washington, D.C., before a federal judge there sent the case back to Massachusetts. The July 4 drama came a day after the Supreme Court lifted an order by Murphy that had blocked the deportation. 'This Court interprets these Supreme Court orders as binding on this new petition,' Murphy said in a brief order, 'as Petitioners are now raising substantially similar claims, and therefore Petitioners motion is denied.'"
Pete Hegseth Is an Ignorant Bigot. Edda Fields-Black & Kate Larson in a Washington Post op-ed: "Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered the Navy to consider removing [Harriet] Tubman's name from the ship, alongside others named after former Supreme Court justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Thurgood Marshall.... Hegseth is seeking to reestablish 'warrior culture' in the military.... Many Americans know Tubman for her courage and sacrifice as conductor of the Underground Railroad, but fewer recognize her as a Civil War spy and military leader. Tubman was the first woman to lead a combat regiment during the Civil War, and in an opinion issued this year, the U.S. Army Office of the General Counsel acknowledged her as one of the few women who served as a soldier in the Civil War.... She was attached to Gen. Isaac Stevens's headquarters and worked for Gens. Rufus Saxton and David Hunter, commanding a ring of Black men as spies, scouts and river pilots.... The Combahee Ferry Raid[, which she helped lead,] is now considered the largest and most successful slave rebellion in U.S. history."
Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Marie: I noticed this morning that the New York Times had a link on its front page to a story that said New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani identified himself as Asian and African-American on a college application. I didn't think that was remotely interesting since Mamdani is of Indian (i.e., Asian) heritage and was born in Africa (specifically, Uganda). However, it turns out the story is interesting -- in a "bad journalism" sort of way. Dan Moynihan makes a compelling case against publishing the story at all, which came to the Times via a hack and a eugenics (racist) conspiracy theorist to whom the Times granted anonymity even though his identity is publicly-known. Most important, Mamdani did nothing wrong, IMO, by completing a university application as honestly as he could within the parameters the application provided. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~
~~~ Update. I see the Times has yet a second story on this fake scandal, this time reporting on reactions to the horror of a boy trying to fully complete a college application.
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Texas. The New York Times liveblogged developments in the flood of the Guadalupe river: "Search and rescue teams were working throughout the night in Central Texas after flooding that began early Friday swept through a summer camp and homes, killing at least 24 people and leaving as many as 25 girls missing from th camp. The girls were at Camp Mystic along the Guadalupe River in Hunt, in Kerr County, according to the county sheriff.... An unknown number of other people were also missing, Kerr County said in an update on Friday night, citing the sheriff, Larry Leitha. The deadly flooding surprised many, including Texas officials, who said that some National Weather Service alerts had underestimated the risks. The most urgent alerts came in overnight, in the early hours of Friday.... The Texas National Guard made 237 rescues and evacuations using helicopters and rescue swimmers, Maj. Gen. Thomas M. Suelzer, the guard's commander, said at a news conference Friday evening.... Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has activated the U.S. Coast Guard and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to help search for the missing, Tricia McLaughlin, a spokeswoman for the agency, said on social media. --45--
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Reader Comments (11)
Jeff Legum
"Corporations that publicly endorsed Trump's megabill"
They’re Becoming More Bigoted By The Day
Little Bitch celebrates starving children and killing Americans.
"Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) claimed on Thursday that a post celebrating that “18 million kids just lost school meals” and 17 million people “lost health care” was made in error.
After the Trump-backed “Big Beautiful Bill” passed both the House and Senate, one social media user protested, “17 million people just lost health care. 18 million kids just lost school meals. 3 million Americans just lost food assistance.” Van Orden responded to the post, “YES!”
After he received backlash, the post was quickly deleted, with the congressman claiming he had meant to reply to a different post."
I just went to Rep. Van Orden's House.gov site to see how he presents himself to the world. His landing page is covered by a form whereby you can sign up for his newsletter, providing your names and email address. You can't get rid of that form without filling it in (maybe it would close after a while; I didn't stick around). So, he's using a USG asset (.gov = gummint runs it) to solicit name data.
I checked my (D) congressman's .gov. No such form. But his office already has my data, from when I send in attaboys.
I checked the next district over. That (R) rep also has a pop-up register form, but you can dismiss it.
Public servants who block info until you comply with a data request strike me as -- what's the word -- extortionists?
Also ... Van Orden wears a SEAL lapel pin. I'm beginning to think of them as jerk signifiers.
And in the other Washington:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/wa-is-the-no-1-target-in-the-gops-health-care-slashing-bill/?
First came "Alligator Alcatraz" in The Everglades. Next week they start "repurposing" existing buildings at Camp Blanding to serve as Stalag 2. Now DeSantis is contemplating a third camp, he says probably in the panhandle.
DeSantis still aspires to the crown.
Looks like "freedom of assembly" is only a constitutionaal right until the riot police read the riot act:
"... “There’s no legitimate reason why a peaceful protester needs a face shield,” Essayli said. He said law enforcement officers will only release projectiles if demonstrators remain in the area after an unlawful assembly is declared — a point at which a protester is a “rioter” or “in violation of state law,” Essayli added. ... "
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/07/04/la-immigration-protester-face-shield-charges/
I would have thought that using protective equipment at a function where the government forces are equipped with gas and projectiles is just good sense, not supporting a riot.
I saw this link on Bluesky, somewhat surprisingly posted by Bill Kristol. (He also provided a gift link, but I don't think there is a paywall.)
Mike Brock, in Notes From the Circus substack writes The Secret Police Are Here
"How perfectly, exquisitely American. While the United States Congress authorizes the largest domestic police force in our nation’s history—one with a budget exceeding the military expenditures of most sovereign nations—while Marines stand guard at detention centers where human beings drink from toilets because they’re dying of thirst, while American citizens are tackled by unmarked federal agents for the crime of appearing Hispanic—the supposed guardians of our democratic discourse have discovered the truly urgent crisis of our time.
A progressive might become mayor of New York City."
Stealth Planes, no one can see them.
Aaron Rupar
"Trump stands around waiting for a military flyover that never comes and Fox News cuts away lmao"
As Mia Farrow posts on Bluesky,
everything t*** touches dies
He paved paradise.
I got a white screen on Legum's Bluesky list of corporations that praised the BBBBBBB. But he also put one up on X.
https://x.com/JuddLegum/status/1940927254466322572?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Not a very long list. Most are regulated by feds. I suppose if you want to keep the wolf from the door you need to put some meat out at the end of the driveway.