The Commentariat -- March 9, 2020
Late Morning/Afternoon Update:
Saudi Arabia and Russia are arguing over the price and flow of oil. That, and the Fake News, is the reason for the market drop! -- Donald Trump, in a tweet Monday morning
Shorter Donald: What pandemic? -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie
New York Times liveblog of market developments: "Five minutes into the trading day in the United States on Monday, the plunge in the S&P 500 hit 7 percent, triggering an automatic 15-minute trading halt known as a circuit breaker. The next trading halt would come if the S&P 500 falls 13 percent from Friday's close. Should stocks fall 20 percent, trading would end for the rest of the day.... It seemed to have helped on Monday: The S&P 500 recovered some ground soon after trading resumed, and was down about 6 percent by 10 a.m. in New York."
Kevin Liptak of CNN: "Fissures between the White House and national health agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, have begun to expand as the coronavirus pandemic spreads to more American states, creating dissonance between ... Donald Trump and the professionals tasked with containing the virus further. The two sides have grown increasingly distrustful of one another, people inside both the CDC and the White House say, as officials on each side question decisions that either appear designed to downplay the growing crisis or to generate further concern.... While health officials have sought to present a realistic and cautious picture of the national situation, Trump and his political allies are hoping to relay an altogether different message: that the virus is contained, Americans face little risk, and life should proceed as normal."
Todd Spangler of the Detroit Free Press: "Former Vice President Joe Biden, riding a wave of momentum from primaries in South Carolina and Super Tuesday states, comes into Tuesday's Michigan primary with a 24-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders in a new Free Press poll. If Biden's 51%-27% lead in the poll, done by EPIC-MRA for the Free Press and its media partners, holds, it would guarantee him a signature victory in Michigan -- a battleground state that helped ... Donald Trump win the White House four years ago. It could also starve Sanders' formerly front-running campaign of delegates needed for the nomination and call into question how long his effort can remain viable." Mrs. McC: Looks like the primary race will be officially over by tomorrow night.
A few things Preet Bharara (& others) find slightly wanting in Donald Trump. Mrs. McC: Clean up the list a bit & make it about a third of the ad buy for the Democratic nominee (Joe Biden). Is James Earl Jones still available for voiceovers? Thanks to PD Pepe for the link.
Pete Buttigieg is hosting "Jimmy Kimmel Live" Thursday night. (Link is to a Vulture item; open in private window).
AND Nero has a twitter account:
Who knows what this means, but it sounds good to me! https://t.co/rQVA4ER0PV
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 8, 2020
~~~ As Akhilleus mentioned in today's Comments, Trump hasn't let Covfefe-19 interfere with his golf game: ~~~
~~~ Daniel Politi of Slate: "Around the world, leaders and health authorities were struggling to try to get a handle on the rapidly spreading coronavirus. But in the United States..., Donald Trump seems to have thought it would be a great time to hit the links with professional baseball players. On Sunday, the commander in chief played golf with current and former Washington Nationals players at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach. The White House doesn't normally release details about the president's golf outings, but on Sunday, pitcher Patrick Corbin posted a series of photos on his Instagram of the game with the president." Maybe a golf club is the new fiddle bow.
Zack Budryk of the Hill: "Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) formally announced his 2020 Senate run on Monday, tweeting his first campaign ad.... The governor, who will challenge Sen. Steve Daines (R), announced his run on the filing deadline."
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Felicia Sonmez, et al., of the Washington Post: "Governments intensified their efforts Sunday to combat the global spread of the novel coronavirus, as Saudi Arabia followed Italy in enacting new travel restrictions, Iran suspended flights to Europe, and the United States, where the number of cases topped 500, warned citizens against cruise travel. Uncertainty continued to permeate the response effort, however, amid muddled directives from the Trump administration and reports of some patients unable to access testing. A virus-stricken cruise ship made its way to California to dock -- only for Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson to decline to discuss the details of the federal response plan during a national television interview. The Department of Health and Human Services said later Sunday that the Grand Princess cruise ship's more than 3,500 passengers, at least 21 of whom have tested positive for the coronavirus, will be quarantined in California, Texas and Georgia. Some White House officials privately believe the number of U.S. cases will double -- or more -- in the next 48 hours."
Yun Li & Eustance Huang of CNBC: "Stock futures tumbled Monday morning as investors braced for the economic fallout from the spreading coronavirus, while a shocking all-out oil price war added to the anxiety. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicated an opening drop of more than 1,300 points. The S&P 500 futures indicated a 5% drop at Monday's open. The sharp declines in the futures market signaled more turbulence ahead after a roller-coaster week that saw the S&P 500 swing up or down more than 2.5% for four days straight. The S&P futures trading was briefly halted overnight." The New York Times' live updates are here. ~~~
~~~ Jeanna Smialek of the New York Times: "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday announced that it will ramp up the amount of short-term loans it offers banks, an effort to keep cash flowing smoothly through the financial system as markets gyrate amid fears about economic fallout from the coronavirus." ~~~
~~~ Michael Bloom of CNBC: "With U.S. stocks set to plunge at the open, investors will be watching for additional market circuit breakers that could halt trading. Futures contracts hit 'limit down' on Sunday evening after CME-traded stock index futures contracts sank 5%, halting trading below that level and preventing futures from falling any further. According to the New York Stock Exchange, a market trading halt may occur at 'three circuit breaker thresholds' on the S&P 500 due to large declines and volatility. The exchange classifies this at three levels based on the preceding session's close in the S&P 500."
Darius Tahir of Politico: "The government's top infectious disease expert on Sunday said that the coronavirus outbreak is getting worse and warned elderly and sick people to think twice before traveling or circulating in crowds. The remarks from Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, signaled a change in tone from health officials representing the Trump administration, making it clear that the outbreak is past the point where it can be prevented from spreading or easily tracked. That contrasted with the more measured language from some Trump officials including Vice President Mike Pence." (Also linked yesterday.)
Matt Wilstein of the Daily Beast: "After Surgeon General Jerome Adams advised on State of the Union Sunday morning that older Americans and those with underlying medical issues should 'think very carefully' before taking long flights or going into big crowds, CNN host Jake Tapper noted him that all three men currently running for president -- Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump -- fall into that at least one if not both of those categories. 'Should those three stop traveling? Should they stop holding rallies?' Tapper asked. Without answering that question directly, Adams told Tapper that he has been reminding President Trump to wash his hands frequently. 'But speaking of being at risk, the president, he sleeps less than I do and he's healthier than what I am,' the surgeon general, who is in his mid-40s, insisted." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Two Degrees of Separation. Toluse Olorunnipa, et al., of the Washington Post: "A growing sense of concern and uncertainty about the reach of the novel coronavirus has begun to take hold in the White House, after an attendee at a recent political conference where President Trump spoke tested positive for covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. Trump was photographed shaking hands with Matt Schlapp, the chairman of the American Conservative Union who confirmed that he had been in direct contact with the infected man during the Conservative Political Action Conference last month. The handshake at CPAC put Trump just two degrees of separation away from the virus that he has sought to minimize.... There is growing tension among Trump administration officials, who now see the rapidly spreading outbreak as a black swan event that could consume the president's fourth year in office, even as Trump remains reluctant to see much cause for concern.... The White House is ... being cleaned more regularly and people with flu-like symptoms are being urged not to come into the complex.... Trump, 73, had no campaign rallies scheduled as of Sunday evening, marking the first time this year that there were no such events on the books."
Justine Coleman of the Hill: "President Trump in an early morning tweet on Sunday accused the 'Fake News Media' of attempting to 'make us look bad' on the administration's coronavirus response. The president called the White House's plan to combat the growing outbreak in the U.S. 'perfectly coordinated and fine tuned.'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Taylor Dolven of the Miami Herald: "The U.S. State Department is warning U.S. citizens not to take cruises, delivering what could be a major blow to one of South Florida's largest industries. In a travel advisory issued Sunday evening, the State Department said there is an increased risk of infection of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, on cruise ships. 'U.S. citizens, particularly travelers with underlying health conditions, should not travel by cruise ship.' The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has an equal warning, urging people to 'defer all cruise ship travel worldwide.' The announcements are direct contradictions of statements made Saturday by Vice President Mike Pence, who traveled to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale to reassure cruise company CEOs that cruising would continue, albeit with ramped-up screening and sanitizing protocols to be announced in the coming days." Mrs. McC: So much for message control.
The U.S. State Department is warning U.S. citizens not to take cruises, delivering what could be a major blow to one of South Florida's largest industries. In a travel advisory issued Sunday evening, the State Department said there is an increased risk of infection of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, on cruise ships. "U.S. citizens, particularly travelers with underlying health conditions, should not travel by cruise ship."
Rishika Dugyala of Politico: "Sen. Ted Cruz announced on Sunday that he is under self-quarantine after having interacted with the person who tested positive for coronavirus at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference. In a statement released on Twitter, the Texas Republican wrote that he was informed of the interaction on Saturday night, and that he had engaged in a brief conversation and handshake with the affected individual.... 'I'm not experiencing any symptoms, and I feel fine and healthy,' Cruz said in the statement. 'Given that the interaction was 10 days ago, that the average incubation period is 5-6 days, that the interaction was for less than a minute, and that I have no current symptoms, the medical authorities have advised me that the odds of transmission from the other individual to me were extremely low.' He added that physicians advised him that the interaction did not meet the CDC criteria for self-quarantine. However, 'out of an abundance of caution' for his constituents, Cruz said, he decided to remain in his Texas home for a full 14 days." ~~~
~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: This could be the first responsible thing Ted has done in his public career.
Sandi Doughton of the Seattle Times: "Testing for the novel coronavirus in the Seattle area will get a huge boost in the coming weeks as a project funded by Bill Gates and his foundation begins offering home-testing kits that will allow people who fear they may be infected to swab their noses and send the samples back for analysis. Results, which should be available in one to two days, will be shared with local health officials who will notify those who test positive. Via online forms, infected people can answer questions about their movements and contacts, making it easier for health officials to locate others who may need to be tested or quarantined, as well as to track the virus' spread and identify possible hot spots.... The Gates Foundation recently announced it's committing $5 million for coronavirus response in the Seattle area, and much of that will go for the expanded testing and analysis."
Neil Vigdor of the New York Times: "Columbia University announced on Sunday night that it was canceling classes on Monday and Tuesday and that classes would be taught remotely for the rest of week after a university community member was quarantined for exposure to the new coronavirus.... Barnard College, which is considered one of Columbia's four undergraduate colleges but is an independent institution, announced that it was taking the same precautions.... [The town of Scarsdale, N.Y.] N.Y., announced on Sunday that a middle school teacher had tested positive for the virus and that classes had been canceled for the week at all public schools there.... Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York declared a state of emergency on Saturday as the number of coronavirus cases rose.
Chico Harlan & Stefano Petrelli of the Washington Post: "Italy on Sunday launched a complicated and urgent plan to restrict the movement of roughly 16 million people, a measure that unleashed confusion about how it could be enforced and whether it would be enough to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The plan to lock down large swaths of the north was the first major attempt by a democracy during the coronavirus crisis to radically halt the routines of daily life -- an effort that will have significant impacts on civil liberties. But in the hours before and after the measure became law, people continued to stream out of the northern hubs of Milan and Venice on trains and planes for southern Italy or elsewhere in Europe. Sunday, then, provided the first glimpse of a coronavirus lockdown, European-style...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Presidential Race
Hope Yen & Will Weissert of the AP: "As the coronavirus hits more states, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders said Sunday his campaign is gauging when it may become necessary to cancel the large campaign rallies that public health experts say could be breeding grounds to spread the potentially deadly illness. 'Obviously what is most important to us is to protect the health of the American people,' Sanders said as he appeared in a series of TV interviews. 'And what I will tell you, we are talking to public health officials all over this country.'"
Kyle Balluck of the Hill: "Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden's presidential campaign early Monday." ~~~
~~~ Nick Corasaniti of the New York Times: "Mr. Booker's endorsement comes 24 hours after Senator Kamala Harris of California endorsed Mr. Biden, and the two senators will appear with him at a rally in Detroit on Monday night." ~~~
Sarah Mucha of CNN: "US Senator and former Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris said Sunday she's endorsing Joe Biden for president, the latest in a series of high-profile announcements from Democrats backing the former vice president."
Ben Smith of the New York Times: "While [Bernie] Sanders's criticism of the media has more merit than most reporters like to acknowledge, the media has often gotten Mr. Sanders right, too. His weaknesses, from a rigid attachment to the battles of an earlier generation to his struggle to persuade older black Democrats to join his revolution, aren't media inventions. They're good, fair stories. And in 2020, far more than in 2016, the media has also captured his strengths: his consistency, his commitment to the poor, his deep popularity with young people."
Zak Cheney-Rice of New York: "Trump is going to try dampening black voter enthusiasm for Biden by contrasting the two men's criminal justice records. The framing will be simple: Trump signed a bipartisan criminal-legal reform bill, the First Step Act, and has been generous with his pardon powers toward unjustly imprisoned black people.... Trump's is not a meritless strategy. It has the benefit of a soft target.... While Trump's status as a self-styled reformer is laughable, Biden's record is grotesque. Most of its lowlights occurred in the 'tough on crime' 1980s and 1990s, when he was a senator.... Back then, he viciously characterized people who commit crimes as sociopathic 'predators' who are beyond rehabilitation.... He authored the 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act..., which Biden liked to call the '1994 Biden crime bill' as recently as 2015. Its main legacy is cruelty: It expanded the death penalty, eliminated education funding for imprisoned students, created harsher sentencing guidelines for a wide range of crimes, and increased funding for local police departments and corrections departments.... Perhaps more than any other official of the era, he embodied the Democratic impulse to outflank Republicans from the right by locking more people in jails and prisons.... He said he was 'not at all' ashamed of his involvement as recently as 2016."
Twitter Knocks Trump's Fake News. Cat Zakrzewski of the Washington Post: “Twitter applied its new 'manipulated media' label for the first time on Sunday to a deceptively edited video of former vice president Joe Biden. The video was shared by White House social media director Dan Scavino and retweeted by President Trump. The video was the first test of a new policy the social media company implemented on March 5 to label tweets that contain manipulated or synthetic media, ranging from edited videos to more sophisticated examples known as 'deepfakes' that can fabricate events that never happened. In this case, the altered video of Biden -- who has surged to the front of the Democratic race to oust Trump in November -- is based on a speech he gave in Kansas City, Mo., on Saturday. It was then shared on Twitter by Scavino, only edited to make it appear as if Biden inadvertently endorsed Trump for reelection.... Twitter applied the ["! Manipulated media"] label to Scavino's tweet at about 5 p.m. on Sunday evening, about 18 hours after Scavino first shared the video."
Matt Steib of New York: "In an interview with Axios on HBO, [Donald Trump, Jr.,] challenged Hunter Biden, the son of Democratic front-runner Joe Biden, to a nepotism contest. 'Let's talk about who profited off of whose public service,' the president's eldest son said.... 'I'm not going to say I haven't benefited from my father's last name, just like Hunter Biden did. That would be foolish to say But I haven't benefited from my father's taxpayer-funded office.' That too would be foolish to say: Trump Jr. is the vice-president of an organization that the president has fattened repeatedly while in office -- from bilking the Secret Service to reportedly requiring the U.S. military to spend taxpayer funds at his hotels. DJT also saw his book shoot to the top of the New York Times bestseller list only after the Republican National Committee purchased thousands of copies."
Amy Guthrie of the AP: "Women filled the streets of the world's largest cities Sunday to protest gender violence and inequality on International Women's Day, with the mothers of murdered girls leading a march in Mexico City and participants in Paris inveighing against the 'virus of the patriarchy.' While many protests were peaceful celebrations others were marred by tension, with security forces arresting demonstrators at a rally in Kyrgyzstan and police reportedly using tear gas to break up a demonstration by thousands of women in Turkey."
News Ledes
The New York Times' live updates of developments in the coronavirus epidemic are here. "Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of Italy has extended restrictions on movement to the entire nation, banning public gatherings and telling eople not to travel except for work or emergencies."
New York Times: "Max von Sydow, the tall, blond Swedish actor who cut a striking figure in American movies but was most identified with the signature work of a fellow Swede, the director Ingmar Bergman, died on Sunday. He was 90."