The Commentariat -- Oct. 10, 2013

Jackie Calmes of the New York Times: "President Obama on Wednesday announced one of his most important economic decisions, nominating Janet L. Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve system and be his independent co-steward of the American economy. He called her 'one of the nation's foremost economists and policy makers.'" ...

... Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times has a long profile of Yellen. ...

... ** Kevin Roose of New York: "Janet Yellen is ... a new kind of Federal Reserve governor -- a humanist. She looks at the economy not just as a series of charts and figures, but as a moving, breathing organism, a collection of millions of people who are struggling to make their lives better today than they were yesterday."

... John Cassidy of the New Yorker: "... by dint of her intelligence, her technical expertise, her judgement, her creativity, her work ethic, and her willingness to coöperate with people rather than elbow them aside, [Yellen] has risen to the top of the one of the most demanding professions there is. That, surely, makes her a role model for all women."

NEW. Strings. Attached. Paul Kane, et al., of the Washington Post: "House Republican leaders said Thursday they will offer a temporary increase in the federal debt ceiling in exchange for negotiations with President Obama on longer-term 'pressing problems,' but they stopped short of agreeing to end a government shutdown now in its 10th day. In a news briefing following a closed-door meeting of House Republicans to present a plan to raise the debt limit for six weeks, House Speaker John A.Boehner (R-Ohio) said, 'What we want to do is offer the president today the ability to move a temporary increase in the debt ceiling.' He described the offer,to be presented to Obama in a White House meeting with House Republicans on Thursday afternoon, as a 'good-faith effort on our part to move halfway to what he's demanded in order to have these conversations begin.'" ...

... Zachary Goldfarb & Lori Montgomery of the Washington Post: "Treasury Secretary Jack Lew plans to warn lawmakers Thursday that he will be unable to guarantee payments to any group -- whether Social Security recipients or U.S. bondholders -- unless Congress approves an increase in the federal debt limit.... Lew plans to tell a Senate panel that he would do all he can to minimize the pain of breaching the $16.7 trillion debt limit, according to Treasury officials briefed on the testimony. But Lew will also note that in an unprecedented situation in which he would be relying entirely on the erratic flow of incoming revenue, the economy would suffer and there would not even be certainty that the government could make all interest payments." ...

... Burgess Everett & Manu Raju of Politico: "After taking a back-seat role in this fall’s fiscal battles, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and fellow Republican senators are quietly seeing whether they can break the political impasse between House Republicans and Senate Democrats. Behind the scenes, the Kentucky Republican is gauging support within the Senate GOP Conference to temporarily raise the debt ceiling and reopen the government in return for a handful of policy proposals.... House Republican leaders are expected to unveil a short-term debt ceiling increase at a closed-door Republican Conference meeting on Thursday morning. Drafted by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), that proposal calls for a short-term, four-to-six week increase in the debt ceiling while negotiations begin on revisions to the tax code and major changes to entitlement programs. President Barack Obama has said he would sign a clean debt ceiling but has ruled out including any policy measures." CW: Guess Mitch & Paul missed that part where the President said "No conditions." ...

... Lori Montgomery, et al., of the Washington Post: "The White House on Wednesday announced a series of meetings with lawmakers from both parties to focus on the government shutdown, looming debt crisis and festering fiscal stalemate, but a dispute promptly erupted over a presidential confab with House Republicans, and the Pentagon was forced to scramble to ensure death benefits for the families of fallen service members.... Shortly after Obama directed that the $100,000 payouts [of death benefits for military personnel] be made as scheduled when necessary, the House voted 425 to 0 to approve a measure that would ensure the Pentagon is able to pay the death benefits.... Saying that he was 'offended, outraged and embarrassed' by the lapse, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced Wednesday that the Pentagon will enter into a contract with the private Fisher House Foundation to ensure that the death benefits are paid. He said the Defense Department will reimburse the foundation once the shutdown ends. House Republican and Democratic leaders met around midday Wednesday to discuss the current impasse.... Aides said the meeting lasted about 40 minutes but did not yield any new agreements." ...

... Jake Sherman, et al., of Politico: "President Barack Obama told House Democrats Wednesday that he would negotiate with Republicans but 'not with a gun at my head,' according to one lawmaker who attended a caucus-wide meeting at the White House. As he has before, Obama said he was open to short-term agreements to open the government and raise the debt ceiling if that's what it took to help Republicans out of what he described as a political box, the lawmaker said." ...

Sir, we are not a department of the government. We’re simply trying to be able to spend our own money. -- Washington, D.C., Mayor Vincent Gray, to Harry Reid on the Capitol steps

I'm on your side. Don't screw it up, okay? Don't screw it up. -- Harry Reid, to Mayor Gray

... Tim Alberta of the National Journal: "House Republicans remain committed to forcing negotiations with President Obama and Senate Democrats over a range of long-term fiscal issues, including the debt-ceiling and budget deficit. But they also are beginning to accept that for such talks to take place, they must first approve a short-term debt limit increase. On Wednesday, Republicans sounded prepared to do precisely that.... House Republicans said ... they are on track to approve a debt-limit extension -- lasting between four and six weeks -- that would establish a framework for subsequent fiscal negotiations. Lawmakers said this short-term deal ... could pass [the House] as soon as Friday." ...

... Humor Break. Paul Krugman: Republican leaders' "attempts to get something by repeating over and over the same old lies and misdirections -- we're not practicing extortion, he's just refusing to negotiate! -- makes me think of the classic tourist, believing that locals will understand English if only you talk loud enough." ...

... ** Jonathan Chait: "Cracks are forming everywhere in the Republican line.... The current Republican line does suggest a way out: if Republicans 'win' a promise to negotiate the budget, with the debt ceiling not being subject to the outcome of the negotiations. That this has actually been Obama's goal all along, and the thing Republicans have been trying to avoid, does not mean Republicans can't talk themselves into it. The negotiation would probably end in a stalemate..., but by the time it was finished the crisis would be over and conservative activists would have moved on to other issues -- a new Obama scandal, maybe." ...

... Brian Beutler of Salon: "At the risk of mistaking advancement for artifice, I think we're reaching the return-to-reality phase of the debt limit standoff, where Republican leaders figure out a way to answer to the right for their undelivered ransoms, and Democrats grudgingly help them preserve their honor, on the presumption that the risks of seeing this ritual humiliation to its conclusion are too severe." ...

... CW: Read Chait, then read the Washington Post Editors, who see Paul Ryan as the savior who will end the political impasse. -- if only everyone will listen to his "sensible" ideas about "entitlement reform" & the "tax code." Unbelievable. ...

... TBogg, in the Raw Story: "Paul Ryan has an unused agenda he thinks you might want to reconsider." CW: Yeah, and the Post editors have a worn-out editorial they think you might want to consider. ...

... Jonathan Cohn: Extortion is still extortion whether you're insisting on defunding ObamaCare (Tea Party) or demanding social safety net cuts & tax code"reform" (Paul Ryan). ...

     ... Here's Ryan's Wall Street Journal op-ed. I quit reading at the first lie, which means I didn't get through the first sentence. ...

... Humor Break. Dan Amira & Jonathan Chait: "The 8 Most Plausible Ways a Debt-Ceiling Catastrophe Could Be Averted." With Ted Cruz's likely reactions to each. ...

... Shutdown Forces Cruz Daughters to Become Apple-Pickers, Upsets Mrs. Ted. Ted "Cheerful." ...

... Also Upsets Koch Brothers. Michael Isikoff of NBC News: "In a move that highlights a growing rift in conservative ranks,Koch Industries ... today distanced the firm from allied political groups lobbying to keep the government shut down unless Obamacare is defunded. A letter, signed by the company's chief lobbyist and sent to members of Congress, says ... Koch Industries wants Congress to focus on 'balancing the budget' and 'cutting government spending,' among other goals.... The letter comes in the wake of media reports documenting how Freedom Partners -- a newly formed conservative trade association closely associated with the Koch brothers -- has helped finance many of the conservative and Tea Party groups that have been pressuring Republicans to link defunding Obamacare to the passage of a continuing resolution to fund the government and extend the debt ceiling." CW: if you read this conjunction with Jon Chait's piece linked above, you just might conclude the Koch boy pull Paul Ryan's strings. Thanks to Jeanne B. for the link. ...

... Howard Fineman learns that Heritage Action -- funded by the Koch Boys -- & Freedom Works -- founded & funded by the Koch Boys -- want to drop the ObamaCare condition from debt ceiling negotiations (but keep it in the shutdown ransom demands). CW: If you don't think the Koch brothers are running the country, this is your wake-up call. They control enough of the GOP caucus to wreak havoc, and the fate of the global economy & the U.S. government rests in their hands. ...

... Dana Milbank: Michael Needham, the CEO of Heritage Action, is enforcing the shutdown. CW: So some guy you never heard of has more influence over Congress than the POTUS. ...

... OR Anybody ...

... Eric Lipton, et al., of the New York Times: "... some of the country's most influential business executives have come to a conclusion all but unthinkable a few years ago: Their voices are carrying little weight with the House majority that their millions of dollars in campaign contributions helped build and sustain." CW Words of Advice: Change your name to Koch. Those MOCs will jump like they'd set their asses down on a pile of steaming teabags. ...

... The Salmonella Caucus. Ron Nixon of the New York Times: "The government shutdown is endangering what America eats, food safety experts said this week, as all inspections of domestic food except meat and poultry have halted and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recalled furloughed workers to handle a salmonella outbreak that sickened hundreds of people in 18 states." CW: We have climate deniers; we have default deniers; let's hear it from the salmonella deniers. ...

... The Salmonella Caucus. Gail Collins looks into which agencies Republicans in Congress have been voting to open. Not the IRS. But "Good news: The Congressional gym is open."

CW: Meant to link this yesterday -- Thomas Edsall of the New York Times looks into the hearts & minds of Republican voters. A pathetic picture that helps explain how someone like Mrs. Crazy Minnesota was chosen to go to Washington to represent the people. ...

... NOW for a word from Mrs. Crazy Minnesota ...

Not a Parody. President Obama waived a ban on arming terrorists in order to allow weapons to go to the Syrian opposition. Your listeners, U.S. taxpayers, are now paying to give arms to terrorists including Al-Qaeda.... Now what this says to me, I'm a believer in Jesus Christ, as I look at the End Times scripture, this says to me that the leaf is on the fig tree and we are to understand the signs of the times, which is your ministry, we are to understand where we are in God's End Times history. Rather than seeing this as a negative, we need to rejoice, Maranatha Come Lord Jesus, His day is at hand. When we see up is down and right is called wrong, when this is happening, we were told this; these days would be as the days of Noah. -- Rep. Michele Bachmann

Local News

Florida Secretary of State Vows to Suppress Votes. Lizette Alvarez of the New York Times: Paving the way for a new attempt to remove noncitizens from voter rolls, Florida's election chief, [Secretary of State Ken Detzner,] tried to stoke confidence on Wednesday in the revamped plan before a largely skeptical crowd in immigrant-heavy South Florida."

News Ledes

New York Times: "M. Scott Carpenter, whose flight into space in 1962 as the second American to orbit the Earth was marred by technical glitches and ended with the nation waiting anxiously to see if he had survived a landing far from the target site, died on Thursday in Denver. He was 88 and one of the last two surviving astronauts of America's original space program, Project Mercury."

Detroit Free Press: "Seven months after his historic conviction for public corruption, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick was sentenced to 28 years in prison today for running what the government called a money-making racket out of city hall that steered millions to himself, his family and his friends while the impoverished city hobbled along."

New York Times: "Alice Munro, the renowned Canadian short-story writer whose visceral work explores the tangled relationships between men and women, small-town existence and the fallibility of memory, won the 2013 Nobel Prize in Literature on Thursday. Ms. Munro, 82, is the 13th woman to win the prize." ...

... The Guardian is covering the announcement of the Nobel Prize in Literature live. And the winner is -- my favorite contemporary writer Alice Munro.

Al Jazeera: "Libya's state news agency said Prime Minister Ali Zeidan has been freed after being captured and briefly detained, reportedly by government-aligned rebel groups. It is not clear if he was released willingly by his captors, or if security forces intervened."

The Commentariat -- Oct. 9, 2013

Jackie Calmes of the New York Times: " President Obama will nominate Janet L. Yellen as chairwoman of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, administration officials said Tuesday night...." Congratulations to every determined, annoying, liberal, feminist, egalitarian supporter & to those Democratic Senators who -- inspired by your perseverence -- just said no to the Other Guy. Sometimes the good gal wins.

     ... CW: Nonetheless, Yellen's nomination is beginning to look like a distraction designed to appease the liberal base so Obama can undercut liberal principles when he negotiates down social safety net programs during a short-term "amnesty" or grace period bestowed up us by the Sabotage Party. Contributor Tommy Bones speculated to this effect in yesterday's thread (before news of the Yellin announcement). I'd say Tommy got that right. ...

... Mark Yellin of BBC News provides a peek into Yellen's personal history.

Thanks to Kate M. for the Time cover.

Alan Fram of the AP: "Amid the tough talk [by Obama & Boehner], though, were indications that both sides might be open to a short-term extension of the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit and a temporary end to the shutdown, giving them more time to resolve their disputes.... Obama used a White House news conference to say he 'absolutely' would negotiate with Republicans on 'every item in the budget' if Congress first sent him short-term measures halting the shutdown and the extending the debt limit. 'There's a crack there,' Boehner said of the clash late Tuesday, though he cautioned against optimism." ...

     ... CW: Guess I missed that part of the presser. Let's think about how that would work. The House agrees to open the government for business by extending the status quo for a month or so & to raise the debt ceiling an itty-bitty bit --- in exchange for negotiating all the stuff they want. I can't see this as anything but an Obama capitulation & a Boehner win. Also, this would completely undercut Harry Reid's plan (see Brian Beutler's story below) to effectively eliminate the debt ceiling. ...

     ... Update: it appears Noam Scheiber of the New Republic wrote this post before Obama made his concession (or like me, he missed it), but his theory applies & jibes with mine: "... a short-term debt limit increase will at best simply defer our current drama for another six weeks. More likely, it will substantially increase the odds of disaster." ...

     ... Update 2: I read the transcript of the Q&A on this, & it's not as cut-&-dried as Fram suggests. Obama put a lot of qualifiers on that "absolutely." ...

... Lori Montgomery & Zachary Goldfarb of the Washington Post: "Short-term borrowing by the Treasury Department became twice as expensive Tuesday as it had been the day before, one of the most significant signs of alarm in the bond markets since the financial crisis of 2008. The stock market, meanwhile, continued the steady slide that began in mid-September, when Boehner (R-Ohio) embraced a right-wing strategy for using the budget battles to try to dismantle Obama's signature health-care initiative. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 20.67 points to 1,655.45 on Tuesday. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped nearly 160 points to 14,776.53 and has lost nearly 6 percent of its value since hitting a one-year high Sept. 18." ...

... Jackie Calmes & Jonathan Weisman of the New York Times: " President Obama on Tuesday intensified his pressure on Republicans with a hastily scheduled news conference, calling on them to both fund and reopen the government and to raise the nation's borrowing limit as the federal shutdown entered a second week." ...

     ... CW: President Obama really acquitted himself well. He used a lot of examples that regular people can understand, so if the news media play back any of his analogies, even dummkopfs will get it. ...

     ... Here's the full transcript, via the Washington Post. ...

... Ed O'Keefe & Paul Kane of the Washington Post: "Obama made the comments as House Republican leaders pressed demands for negotiations with Senate Democrats and Obama over bills to fund the government and raise the debt limit, but declined to lay out what they are seeking in the proposed talks. Speaking to reporters after his weekly meeting with House Republicans, Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) charged that 'by refusing to negotiate,' Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) 'are putting our country on a pretty dangerous path.'" ...

... John Boehner responded to President Obama with a "press conference" of his own: Jonathan Chait: "The most telling thing about Boehner’s remarks is their brevity. The Speaker spoke for about five minutes, responded briefly to one question, and bolted out the door. Obama's disquisition earlier today may have been long (over an hour) and professorial. But he was able to defend his position against questions, engage counterarguments, and marshal facts to support his position. Boehner couldn't do any of those things. So he did the only thing a man in his position could do: repeat a handful of false or crazy talking points and quickly flee the premises." ...

... Robert Costa of National Review: "Though much press has been given to a group of moderates who are feeling the heat from voters over the shutdown and pushing for a 'clean' continuing resolution (CR), Boehner has moved to quiet their concerns. Several Republicans listed in media whip counts over the past few days have recanted, and any building concerns about strategy and direction are staying private, for now." CW: You can read Costa for what the latest House demands are; I think they've changed since then. ...

... Tim Alberta of the National Journal on House Republicans' plans. His reporting seems to agree with Costa's. The House will schedule a screw-federal-employees-if-you-vote-against-it bill & a form-a-supercommittee bill. ...

... Burgess Everett of Politico: "Senior Senate Democrats on Tuesday morning accused House Speaker John Boehner and his Republican majority of executing a 'classic bait-and-switch operation' that led to a government shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has for days now divulged details of a private meeting between him and Boehner in September in which Reid says Boehner promised to pass a bill funding the government at lower spending levels than preferred by Democrats on the condition that it not water down Obamacare. The Senate has sent such a bill over to the House, but Boehner has declined to put it on the floor and said if he did, it wouldn't have the votes to pass." ...

... Brian Beutler explains Harry Reid's debt limit strategy: "in the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid will press ahead with an old twist on a clean debt limit bill of his own. Under his plan, which was once Minority Leader Mitch McConnells plan, Congress would hand authority for increasing the debt limit to the president, but retain the power to block new borrowing with supermajority votes in both chambers. Moving quickly, while Boehner and his lieutenants dither, is a can't-lose move for Reid. If the plan fails — that is, if Republicans successfully filibuster the bill with a week before the Treasury Department's deadline -- markets will turn, and the pressure on the GOP to cave will increase. If it passes, Boehner will be isolated."

... Michael Tomasky of the Daily Beast: "Three Debt-Ceiling Lies You'll Hear From the GOP This Week: ... "1. A default wouldn't really be that bad.... 2. Obama is a big hypocrite because he voted against a debt-limit increase while Bush was president.... 3. The Democrats won't compromise, wah wah wah!" Tomasky elaborates on all three. ...

... Even Tom Friedman Is Smarter than John Boehner: "The reason so many mainstream Republican lawmakers want Obama to give something to Cruz & Co. is that they want to get out of this mess, but they're all afraid to stand up to the far-right fringe themselves -- with its bullying network of barking talk-show hosts and moneymen. But Obama shouldn't take them off the hook. Only Republicans can delegitimize the nihilistic madness at the base of their party." ...

... Ben White & Seung Min Kim of Politico: "... the debt limit deniers are back in force. You can spin all the scary tales of default you want and they won't believe you. They say if the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit is not raised by Oct. 17, as Treasury demands, then the U.S. government will still collect more than enough cash each month to keep paying bondholders. And if Uncle Sam can't pay Social Security recipients or anyone else while it forks over interest payments to the Chinese? 'Tough luck,' these people say. The nation spends too much as it is. Blocking a debt ceiling increase will provide the radical shock therapy the nation desperately needs to start living within its means." ...

... How to Undermine Your Own Extortion Plot. Steve Benen: "Let's say the default deniers are right. They're not, but let's just say they are for the sake of conversation, and the consequences of the United States ignoring its financial obligations would be minor. If that's true, why should President Obama and congressional Democrats pay a steep ransom to let the hostage go? ... We are, at the risk of sounding impolite, talking about a group of ignorant radicals, with an uninterrupted track record of failed predictions, who have the fate of the global economy in their hands. Good luck to us all." ...

... Josh Barro of Business Insider: "Waiting For Michele Bachmann To Stop Being Crazy Is Not A Strategy." ...

... Kevin Mahnken of the New Republic, in praise of former House speakerl Dick Gephardt: "If the Gephardt Rule were in effect today, there could be no risk of default when it comes time to raise the debt ceiling October 17, because its purpose was to obviate the debt-ceiling process entirely. Instituted in 1979, the rule empowered the House Clerk to apply the total amount of debt from the House's budget to a joint resolution that would then be sent to the Senate for approval. It combined the two steps of negotiating a budget and lifting the federal debt limit to pay for it." CW: Just one more reminder that Newt Gingrich's fingerprints are all over this crisis. Thanks again, CNN, for elevating him to stahdumb. ...

... ** AND Paul J. Kaplan, apparently a constituent of Jack Kingston (RTP-Ga.), writes a letter to his Congressman. This is a hoot, even if you're not a baseball fan.

Juliet Eilperin, et al., of the Washington Post: "Major insurers, state health-care officials and Democratic allies repeatedly warned the Obama administration in recent months that the new federal health-insurance exchange had significant problems, according to people familiar with the conversations. Despite those warnings and intense criticism from Republicans, the White House proceeded with an Oct. 1 launch." ...

... CW: There are many things that can & will go wrong with aspects of the ACA. The massive fail of the exchange Website, however, was entirely avoidable. And just plain stupid. I have read a good deal about amateurish coding errors (which should have been caught during testing), but it sounds as if the problem began with the program specs, not with the usual bugs that would occur in a complex system. It appears the designers didn't adjust for the Supreme Court's decision to allow states not to opt in with their own exchanges. With fewer than half the states on board, any dope could see the system would require twice the capacity originally anticipated. ...

... Robert Pear & Amy Goodnough of the New York Times: "While many people have been frustrated in their efforts to obtain coverage through the federal exchange, which is used by more than 30 states, consumers have had more success signing up for health insurance through many of the state-run exchanges, federal and state officials and outside experts say."

See No Evil. Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Tuesday seemed prepared to strike down a part of federal campaign finance law left intact by its decision in Citizens United in 2010: overall limits on direct contributions from individuals to candidates. The justices seemed to divide along familiar ideological lines, and they articulated starkly different understandings of the role of money and free speech in American politics." ...

... Dana Milbank: "There’s a certain irony in the Supreme Court remaining open while much of the federal government is shut, for the high court created much of the dysfunction that cripples Washington today. The court has failed to undo the partisan redistricting that has left the House hopelessly polarized. It has furthered Americans' cynicism toward politics with nakedly political rulings such as Bush v. Gore. And, above all, it has created a campaign-finance system that is directly responsible for the rise of uncompromising leaders on both sides of the Capitol.... Now [the conservatives justices] are prepared to expand on their 2010 decision that caused an explosion of independent spending by allowing the wealthy to give about $3.5 million apiece to candidates and parties in each election cycle. Their rationale: They've already allowed the system to become so flooded with money that more won't hurt." ...

Less than 500 people can fund the whole shooting match. There is a very real risk both that the government will be run of, by and for those 500 people and that the public will perceive that the government is being run of, by and for those 500 people. -- Solicitor Gen. Donald Verrilli, arguing before the Court Tuesday ...

... Charles Pierce provides helpful commentary in a post titled "The Last Floodgate Opens." ...

...  This, BTW, appears to be the intro to Charles Pierce's cover on Esquire Weekly. I haven't figured out how to access the whole essay, which is firewalled. But the intro is wordsmithery (a word this smithy thought she made up, but didn't) to behold.

There Are Still Heroes in Washington. Jonathan Easley of the Hill: "Eight Democratic lawmakers were arrested Tuesday while advocating for immigration reform at a sit-in on the National Mall in Washington. Reps. John Lewis (D-Ga.), Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.), Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.), Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.), Keith Ellision (D-Minn.), Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and Al Green (D-Texas) were among the estimated 200 people arrested by U.S. Capitol Police for protesting in the streets."

Living in Washington, D.C., in the midst of the greatest political crisis since Watergate four decades ago (a crisis for which -- unlike this one -- there was a Constitutional solution), Maureen Dowd devotes her column to the importance of changing the Washington Redskins' name to something less offensive.

Congressional Races 2013

Sam Wang of Princeton U.: "If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule." Thanks to Ken. W. -- and his son -- for the link.

Gubernatorial Race

Alexander Burns of Politico: "Democrat Terry McAuliffe has opened up a significant lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia governor’s race amid broad public disapproval of the federal government shutdown, according to a Politico poll of the 2013 gubernatorial election. McAuliffe, the former national Democratic Party chairman, is now 9 points ahead of Cuccinelli, the current state attorney general, in a race that also includes Libertarian nominee Robert Sarvis. In the survey, McAuliffe drew support from 44 percent of Virginians versus 35 percent for Cuccinelli and 12 percent for Sarvis." ...

... CW: I think contributor James S. is right about this: "The problem with that Terry Mac-Cooch poll is Sarvis's 12 points. Third party candidate always seem to poll better than they score, and I'll bet those 12-pointers are on the kook end of the political rainbow."

News Ledes

New York Times: "This year’s Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to three researchers for computer simulations that enable the closer study of complex reactions like photosynthesis and combustion, and the design of new drugs. Martin Karplus of the University of Strasbourg in France and Harvard University, Michael Levitt of Stanford University, and Arieh Warshel of the University of Southern California share the honor...."

     ... Update: this AP story is more extensive.

New York Times: "The Libyan government in recent weeks tacitly approved two American commando operations in its country, according to senior American officials, one to capture a senior militant from Al Qaeda and another to seize a militia leader suspected of carrying out the Sept. 11, 2012, attacks on the United States diplomatic mission in Benghazi."

New York Times: "The Obama administration plans to suspend a substantial portion of American military aid to Egypt, several administration officials said Tuesday, after last summer's deadly crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood and the recent surge in violence there."

CW: Not sure why the Los Angeles Times is just now getting around to publishing an obituary for Herman Wallace, but it is worth a read. The South is still the South; it's medieval culture persists. Who needs living history museums when you can time-travel to Dixie whenever you like?

The Commentariat -- Oct. 8, 2013

Steve Erlanger of the New York Times: "Five years after the financial crisis in the United States helped spread a deep global recession, policy makers around the world again fear collateral damage, this time with their nations becoming victims not of Wall Street's excesses but of a political system in Washington that to many foreign eyes no longer seems to be able to function efficiently." ...

... David Lauter of the Los Angeles Times: "The standoff over the government shutdown continues to damage the public's opinion of congressional Republicans, two new surveys indicate, a finding likely to deepen concern among GOP leaders about the impact the stalemate is having on their party.... Disapproval of the way congressional Republicans are 'handling negotiations over the federal budget' has jumped to 70%, a Washington Post-ABC News poll shows. The poll, taken Wednesday through Sunday, found 24% approving of the congressional GOP. The ratings have worsened significantly over the last week. A Post-ABC poll taken just before the shutdown began showed 63% of Americans disapproving of the GOP position. The reverse is true for President Obama. While approval of his handling of the budget negotiations remains tepid, it has improved since last week, the poll showed." ...

... Zachary Goldfarb of the Washington Post: "President Obama and Senate Democrats on Monday decided to try to break a political logjam that threatens the U.S. economy by advancing legislation to raise the federal debt ceiling as soon as possible.... While the White House and Senate Democrats said they would push a $1 trillion bill that would authorize borrowing for a year or longer, they suggested they would accept a short-term bill, perhaps lasting only weeks, if necessary to avoid a default.... In a separate development on the seventh day of the shutdown, a bill to retroactively pay furloughed federal employees once it ends hit a snag in the Senate, where some Republicans may seek to amend the legislation with other proposals thus far ignored by the Democratic majority." ...

... Joan McCarter of Daily Kos: "A clean debt ceiling hike by the Senate ... would be a critical 'put up or shut up' moment for Senate Republicans. Would they really filibuster a debt ceiling hike? Sen. John Cornyn [R-Texas] is suggesting they might by saying a clean hike would never get through the Senate. That's after he said, back in January, 'You sometimes try to inject a little doubt in your negotiating partner about where you're going to go, but I would tell you unequivocally that we're not going to default.' That's pretty unequivocally showing your cards." ...

... "Dem Cracks Open in Debt Limit Fight." Manu Raju of Politico: "Just as top Senate Democrats began to lay the groundwork to raise the U.S. government's borrowing limit through 2014, senior White House officials refused to rule out a short-term increase. The divergent messages caused major heartburn for top Senate Democrats and gave Republicans fresh hope that they could defeat a yearlong debt ceiling hike and win concessions from President Barack Obama in this fall's fiscal battles." MAG & I discussed this briefly in yesterday's thread. ...

... Sahil Kapur of TPM: "White House spokesman Jay Carney said Monday that lifting the debt ceiling will be non-negotiable for as long as Barack Obama is president":

Whether it's today, or a number of weeks from now, or a number of months from now, or a number of years from now, it will always be Congress's responsibility to raise our debt ceiling so that the United States can pay the bills that Congress has incurred. It will always be, as long as he's president, President Obama's position that that responsibility is not negotiable. That there's not a game of trading for political priorities or agenda items that Republicans have not been able to achieve through legislation or the ballot box. -- Jay Carney

      ... Paul Waldman of American Prospect: "So far all the demanding has been done on the GOP side. Carney's assertion is "a good start, but how about this. As part of the resolution to the crisis, Obama should demand that whatever agreement they come to include eliminating the debt ceiling. Not raise it, blast it to oblivion." CW: The President can't possibly do this until after the GOP ends the shutdown & raises the debt ceiling. For the President to make any demands would be hypocritical. The President's whole point is that keeping the government open is non-negotiable. Waldman ignores that fundamental principle. ...

... Bob Cusack of the Hill: "House Republicans who have said they are open to supporting a 'clean' government funding bill are not interested in forcing a vote on such a measure.... House GOP leaders strongly discourage their members to sign discharge petitions, which is seen as undercutting their authority. CW: So Boehner is not giving Republicans a wink & a nod, tacitly okaying their signing the Democratic discharge petition, as I thought he very well might. He's dumber than I thought. Krugman is right about the Incompetent Party. ...

... "'House of Indecision.'" Jonathan Strong & Robert Costa of the National Review: "House Republican leaders met today at the Capitol, but they made little progress toward solving the fiscal crisis, or calming the GOP's growing tensions. They remain undecided on the contours of a potential deal, and on how to sell one, especially to the conference's bloc of skeptical conservatives. 'It's the House of indecision,' says a weary Republican aide.... 'We don't have the votes for a big deal, small deal, or short-term deal.'" ...

... AND. Robert Costa: "Speaker John Boehner may be trying to finalize a plan to raise the debt limit, but House conservatives are already skeptical of his efforts. In interviews, several of them tell me they're unlikely to support any deal that may emerge." ...

... John Stanton of BuzzFeed has one of the plans House Republicans are considering -- they will tie non-furloughed federal employee paychecks to a demand for negotiations with Democrats. CW: That's right; they are holding hostage the paychecks of federal employees who are working during the shutdown -- a shutdown the GOP caused. "Dear FEMA Worker: Thanks for your heroic service during the floods & fires & all. Unless you can get President Obama to do everything we want -- including cutting your future benefits -- we're holding your paycheck. Love, John & Eric & the Other Guy." In-fucking-credible. ...

... Digby: "The lunatics are running the asylum now, the revanchist movement is in full swing, and the Lost Cause is the name of the game.... Nothing less than a full-on attack on Fort Sumpter will do." ...

I think we need to have that moment where we realize [we're] going broke. I think, personally, it would bring stability to the world markets. -- Ted Yoho (RTP-Fla.)

Ted Yoho of Florida ... is quickly replacing Steve King and Louie Gohmert as the congressman to whom reporters flock for the jaw-dropping quotes so beloved by Twitter. -- David Firestone of the New York Times

** David Firestone: "That the very people who are causing the crisis are dismissing it shows the double game that's being played here. Republicans don't want the country to understand how big a threat they are posing to its well-being.... If people truly understood how bad a default would be -- if they understood credit markets and interest rates, and how they would be affected by the global loss of faith in Treasury bonds -- the anger would be much greater, and Republican control of the House would be threatened. In the cynical game of spin and messaging that this crisis has become, the goal is to scare Washington Democrats while keeping ordinary people calm." ...

... ** Jonathan Bernstein: "... Republicans are essentially charging admission -- that is, policy concessions -- as a price for beginning negotiations on the budget. Democrats are right to refuse." CW: Think about that. House Republicans are saying, "We won't negotiate until you give us everything we want." ...

... Washington Post Editors: "What have House Republicans managed to accomplish in a week of government shutdown? Damage the livelihood of millions of Americans? Check.... Waste billions of taxpayer dollars? Check.... Interfere with key government operations? Check.... Rattle the markets, slow an economy in recovery, interrupt potentially lifesaving research at the National Institutes of Health? Check, check and check. Derail the hated Obamacare? Ch... -- oh, no, wait a minute.... At some point, Mr. Obama and the Democrats will have to throw the speaker a lifeline.... But throwing a lifeline is pointless until the victim realizes he may be drowning." ...

     ... CW: The WashPo is still the WashPo, even when the editors are better than half-right. Since when did etiquette demand that hostages toss little gifts to kidnappers as they are making their escape? House Democrats already did send Republicans two lifelines: they agreed to a Republican-drawn CR & they are now floating a discharge petition. Republicans prefer to drown unless the lifeline is made of golden braid. ...

... Ezra Klein: "The 13 reasons Washington Is Failing." CW: Quite a good list, with explanations. (I don't agree with Klein's premise that Democrats have moved left -- I think he'd have a hard time supporting it.) Maybe you'd like to add to it. ...

... CW: This Politico story by Eric Isenstadt is interesting because it shows how a slick winger can get away with talking out of two sides of his mouth. It seems Appalachian Trail Guy -- who is among the Tea Party hardliners who precipitated the shutdown -- also represents a district that is heavily dependent upon federal funds. So at a Saturday townhall, the natives were restless. Sanford "tried to assuage constituents' concerns, saying that no one liked the idea of shutting down the government. And criticized his own party, saying that he thought House Republicans had overplayed their hand when it came to their push to defund Obamacare.... But Sanford also held firm on his opposition to a 'clean' budget measure that does not try to defund or weaken the Affordable Care Act. [Emphasis added.] He argued that the budget debate gave Republicans a forum to express concerns about the implementation of Obamacare.... And, more importantly, he said it gave them an opportunity to raise broader questions about government spending. Passing a short-term continuing resolution, he said, wouldn't address the country's long-term fiscal problems." ...

... Jane Perlez & Joe Cochrane of the New York Times: "Secretary of State John Kerry replaced President Obama at the opening of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting on Monday, leaving China's president, Xi Jinping, as the dominant leader at a gathering devoted to achieving greater economic integration." ... The absence of Mr. Obama, who canceled to try to resolve the government shutdown in Washington, was repeatedly noted at the conference.... 'In 2004, obviously, I worked very, very hard to replace a president,' Mr. Kerry told his audience, referring to his unsuccessful campaign against President George W. Bush. 'This is not what I had in mind.' ... Mr. Obama had planned to use personal persuasion to push forward negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade bloc that is led by the United States and that excludes China." ...

... Eric Wemple of the Washington Post: "Fox & Friends" "journalist" Anna Kooiman repeats as true a satirical story that President Obama was paying out of his own pocket to keep a Muslim museum open. CW: This obviously was a spoof on Prince Rebus, who held up a big RNC check which was to cover keeping the WWII Memorial open. If you work for Fox "News," you don't see anything ridiculous about the RNC's publicity stunt, so it doesn't occur to you that anyone would make fun of it. Also, you might be too fucking stoopid to grasp the concept of satire. On that same note, see P. D. Pepe's comment late in yesterday's thread on Ted Cruz's supposed come-to-Jesus moment. Lefties like Chris Hedges can be stoopid, too. One of the many downsides of extremism is that it causes you to lose your sense of humor.

Michael Shear & Robert Pear of the New York Times: "The technical problems that have hampered enrollment in the online health insurance exchanges resulted from the failure of a major software component, designed by private contractors, that crashed under the weight of millions of users last week, federal officials said Monday." CW: See also SNL Weekend Update in the October 6 Commentariat. ...

... Jon Stewart challenges HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius on the ObamaCare rollout:

Max Rivlin-Nadler of Gawker: "... while our congress is busy shutting itself down because it's run by soulless opportunists, the Swiss people have gathered enough signatures to force a referendum on whether they should guarantee $2800 in monthly income for all adults." Thanks to Kate M. for the lead.

Nina Totenberg of NPR: "The U.S. Supreme Court returns to the campaign finance fray on Tuesday, hearing arguments in a case that could undercut most of the remaining rules that limit big money in politics." ...

... Lee Fang of the Nation of the right's more far-reaching goal in the campaign finance case -- to dismantle "a whole host of anti-bribery

Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "On the first day of its new term, the Supreme Court heard arguments in a case arising from one of the most brazen frauds in recent history, the $7 billion Ponzi scheme orchestrated by R. Allen Stanford.... The question for the justices was whether ... state suits were proper in light of the Securities Litigation Uniform Standards Act, a 1998 federal law that was meant to stop end runs around the protections offered to defendants under federal law. The 1998 law bars many state-law class actions based on asserted fraud 'in connection with the purchase or sale of a covered security.'" ...

... Here's Robert Barnes' explanation of the issue, which is perhaps a little clearer. Also this from Barnes's WashPo story: "Among the cases the justices declined to hear was a request from Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II (R) that it revive the commonwealth's anti-sodomy law, which was struck down by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit." The AP has more. CW: The case involved an adult male soliticing oral sex from a 17-year-old girl, not -- as I presumed before reading the AP report -- gay sex.

U.S. News: "Tractor-trailer drivers will intentionally clog the inner loop of the Washington, D.C., beltway beginning on the morning of Oct. 11, according to a coordinator of the upcoming "Truckers Ride for the Constitution" rally. Organizers of the three-day ride want to call attention to a litany of trucker frustrations and express their disapproval of national political leaders." CW: No, these truckers aren't upset about the government shutdown & looming debt crisis; they're more into arresting President Obama & Leader Pelosi & Sen. Feinstein for "treason." It sounds as if they have plans to take MOCs by force. ...

... Hunter of Daily Kos: "Nothing screams conservatism quite like trying to cripple various parts of America in order to make an incoherent point you heard from some delusional radio shitstain...." ...

... Charles Pierce: "I was just saying the other day that the one thing that American politics needs these days is a bunch of nutballs in really big vehicles." AND Pierce calls our attention to this blogpost from one of the mothertruckers' chief organizers:

Reply by Earl Conlon yesterday: i've always believed Obama to be the Anti Christ from the day i first laid eyes one him.. not to mention the dreams i have had for the past 15 years showing me a man in office who i've never heard of before. then comes 2008 and the dreams get more detailed and intense... you figure it out..maybe i am crazy?

Local News

Jennifer Medina of the New York Times: "Breaking with Democrats in the State Legislature, Gov. Jerry Brown vetoed a bill on Monday that would have made California the first state to allow immigrants who are not citizens to serve on juries, saying that the responsibility should come only with citizenship."